Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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- Another rise in consumption pulled Q3 GDP in Switzerland above its pre-pandemic level.
- But activity is now softening; fast-falling surveys force us to cut our Q4 GDP estimate.
- The franc will strengthen further; we look for EURCHF of 1.03 at end-21 and 1.02 by mid-2022.
- Eurozone house prices are rising at their fastest pace since before the global financial crisis..
- ...Indicative signs point to further upside ahead, supporting consumer spending...
- ...But the virus remains a threat in the near term, weighing on consumer confidence.
- EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
- Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
- ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.
- Lending growth has accelerated in the EZ, thanks to a pick-up in lending to firms...
- ...This is positive for the outlook for EZ investment, but will the new virus wave nip it in the bud?
- The decline in the ESI suggests GDP growth took a leg down in Q4; it will drop further in December.
- The Q4 survey data in France have been robust so far, pointing to solid underlying GDP growth…
- …But the return of the virus threatens new restrictions, putting Christmas festivities in question.
- We're reducing our forecast for Q4 quarteron-quarter GDP growth, by 0.6pp, to 0.6%.
- Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
- Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
- The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.
- EZ Labour demand has surged and the supply-side labour market recovery has also been impressive...
- ...But in Italy the participation rate remains below its pre-virus level, trailing that in Spain.
- We expect the jobless rate in both to fall over the coming quarters, but Italy will underperform.
- The green energy transition can be modelled as a sustained inflationary supply shock to the economy.
- In the extreme case, a rise in oil and gas prices could lift EZ inflation by 0.5pp between now and 2026.
- The price of CO2 emissions is rising; it could lift EZ inflation significantly over the next few years.
- The trade wars between the EU and the U.S. seem over, but a new front is opening with the U.K.
- Slowing demand from China is the biggest threat to euro area exports in the next six months.
- Our forecasts for the U.S., U.K. and China point to a slowdown in EZ goods exports next year.
- German factory orders are losing momentum, and output flatlined at the end of Q3.
- Virus cases are still rising in the Eurozone; Germany is hit hardest, due to a surge in the south-east.
- The PMIs point to EZ GDP growth at 0.5-to-1.0% q/q in Q4, with risks tilted to the downside.
- The EC is adamant that governments will have to fend for themselves to combat higher gas prices.
- EZ countries are combining tax cuts and subsidies to shield the economy from higher electricity prices.
- It remains unclear whether Gazprom will supply enough gas to Europe for prices to keep falling.
- The Eurozone economy recovered further in Q3, and revisions could close the gap with Q4-2019.
- France and Italy stood out to the upside in Q3, with Germany lacklustre, and Spain implausibly weak.
- We're lifting our inflation forecasts, again, but we still think markets are wrong on ECB tightening in 2022.
- French GDP growth rebounded strongly in Q3, from a lacklustre Q2; we look for a 2.4% rise in output.
- Italian GDP is also likely to have posted a solid quarter, but base effects kept a lid on the headline.
- Spain's economy likely took pole position in Q3; services exports rocketed as tourism reopened
- Euro area energy inflation will rise further in Q4, but we think the core rate has peaked.
- Risks are tilted towards persistently high core and headline inflation in the next 12 months…
- …But that doesn't justify the leap in Eurozone rate expectations in the past few weeks.
- EZ imports are still outpacing exports by a hand- some margin; further downside for net trade in Q4?
- The EZ trade deficits with Asia and China are widening, this could sting Q4 GDP growth.
- Headline inflation in France is still rising, but the national core rate seems to have peaked.
- Gas prices in Europe have continued their rise since the start of the year...
- ...Governments are trying hard to shield consumers, but businesses will be hit harder.
- Our analysis shows that consumers and firms in Spain will be impacted most in the EZ
- We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further.
- Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks remain tilted to the downside.
- Stagflation risks are real, warning of less potent fiscal stimulus and a more constrained ECB.
- German auto output crashed in August; we're nudging our Q3 GDP growth forecasts down, to 2.0% q/q.
- The Q3 plunge in German industry is clear evidence that supply-side woes are now hitting demand.
- The services surplus in France is rising strongly; net exports likely rebounded in Q3.
- German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead.
- Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector rose strongly.
- EZ gas prices continue to climb, the risk to household income is rising, but hard to quantify.
- EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
- Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
- We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.