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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

demand

3 Dec 2021 Yet Another Forecast Downgrade, this Time for Swiss GDP Growth

  • Another rise in consumption pulled Q3 GDP in Switzerland above its pre-pandemic level.
  • But activity is now softening; fast-falling surveys force us to cut our Q4 GDP estimate.
  • The franc will strengthen further; we look for EURCHF of 1.03 at end-21 and 1.02 by mid-2022.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

2 Dec 2021 House prices in the EZ are Rocketing; Does it Matter?

  • Eurozone house prices are rising at their fastest pace since before the global financial crisis..
  • ...Indicative signs point to further upside ahead, supporting consumer spending...
  • ...But the virus remains a threat in the near term, weighing on consumer confidence.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

1 Dec 2021 Inflation is on Fire, but Not for Much Longer

  • EZ inflation is running red hot, hitting a record high of 4.9% in November.
  • Shipping costs to the Eurozone's most important trading partners are still rising...
  • ...Still, the fall in global measures points to shipping costs dragging headline inflation down.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

30 Nov 2021 Credit Growth Remains Brisk Heading into Q4; the ESI Falls

  • Lending growth has accelerated in the EZ, thanks to a pick-up in lending to firms...
  • ...This is positive for the outlook for EZ investment, but will the new virus wave nip it in the bud?
  • The decline in the ESI suggests GDP growth took a leg down in Q4; it will drop further in December.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 Nov 2021 We're Slashing our Q4 Forecasts in France, Despite Great Surveys

  • The Q4 survey data in France have been robust so far, pointing to solid underlying GDP growth…
  • …But the return of the virus threatens new restrictions, putting Christmas festivities in question.
  • We're reducing our forecast for Q4 quarteron-quarter GDP growth, by 0.6pp, to 0.6%.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

22 Nov 2021 Swiss GDP Recovered in Q3; SNB seems OK with EURCHF at 1.05

  • Switzerland's economy probably grew by 2% q/q in Q3, taking output back above its pre-virus level.
  • Q3 is old news; growth is now slowing and the risks to the outlook are rising as virus cases surge.
  • The SNB won't stay happy with CHF 1.05 per euro for much longer.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

16 Nov 2021 Italy set to Underperform Spain's Labour Market Recovery

  • EZ Labour demand has surged and the supply-side labour market recovery has also been impressive...
  • ...But in Italy the participation rate remains below its pre-virus level, trailing that in Spain.
  • We expect the jobless rate in both to fall over the coming quarters, but Italy will underperform.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

15 Nov 2021 How Inflationary is the Green Energy Transition in the EZ?

  • The green energy transition can be modelled as a sustained inflationary supply shock to the economy.
  • In the extreme case, a rise in oil and gas prices could lift EZ inflation by 0.5pp between now and 2026.
  • The price of CO2 emissions is rising; it could lift EZ inflation significantly over the next few years.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

10 Nov 2021 What is the Outlook for EZ Trade with its Main Trading Partners?

  • The trade wars between the EU and the U.S. seem over, but a new front is opening with the U.K.
  • Slowing demand from China is the biggest threat to euro area exports in the next six months.
  • Our forecasts for the U.S., U.K. and China point to a slowdown in EZ goods exports next year.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

5 Nov 2021 More Evidence that German Manufacturing Hit a Wall in Q3

  • German factory orders are losing momentum, and output flatlined at the end of Q3.
  • Virus cases are still rising in the Eurozone; Germany is hit hardest, due to a surge in the south-east. 
  • The PMIs point to EZ GDP growth at 0.5-to-1.0% q/q in Q4, with risks tilted to the downside. 

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

3 Nov 2021 No EU-wide Measures to Curb the Spike in Electricity Prices in Q4

  • The EC is adamant that governments will have to fend for themselves to combat higher gas prices.
  • EZ countries are combining tax cuts and subsidies to shield the economy from higher electricity prices.
  • It remains unclear whether Gazprom will supply enough gas to Europe for prices to keep falling.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

1 Nov 2021 EZ GDP Recovered further in Q3, and Inflation is Still Running Hot

  • The Eurozone economy recovered further in Q3, and revisions could close the gap with Q4-2019.
  • France and Italy stood out to the upside in Q3, with Germany lacklustre, and Spain implausibly weak.
  • We're lifting our inflation forecasts, again, but we still think markets are wrong on ECB tightening in 2022.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie DebonoEurozone

27 Oct 2021 What Happened in the Eurozone Economy in Q3?

  • French GDP growth rebounded strongly in Q3, from a lacklustre Q2; we look for a 2.4% rise in output.
  • Italian GDP is also likely to have posted a solid quarter, but base effects kept a lid on the headline.
  • Spain's economy likely took pole position in Q3; services exports rocketed as tourism reopened

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 Oct 2021 EZ Inflation is Still Red Hot, but a Cyclical Peak is Close

  • Euro area energy inflation will rise further in Q4, but we think the core rate has peaked.
  • Risks are tilted towards persistently high core and headline inflation in the next 12 months…
  • …But that doesn't justify the leap in Eurozone rate expectations in the past few weeks.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

18 Oct 2021 The EZ Trade Deficits With Asia and China are Widening, Quickly

  • EZ imports are still outpacing exports by a hand- some margin; further downside for net trade in Q4?
  • The EZ trade deficits with Asia and China are widening, this could sting Q4 GDP growth.
  • Headline inflation in France is still rising, but the national core rate seems to have peaked.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 Oct 2021 Spanish Firms Disproportionately Impacted by Surging Gas Prices

  • Gas prices in Europe have continued their rise since the start of the year...
  • ...Governments are trying hard to shield consumers, but businesses will be hit harder.
  • Our analysis shows that consumers and firms in Spain will be impacted most in the EZ

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2021 GDP Growth Forecast Down and Inflation Forecasts Up in the EZ?

  • We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further.
  • Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks remain tilted to the downside.
  • Stagflation risks are real, warning of less potent fiscal stimulus and a more constrained ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 Oct 2021 We're Reducing our Q3 GDP Growth Forecasts in Germany

  • German auto output crashed in August; we're nudging our Q3 GDP growth forecasts down, to 2.0% q/q.
  • The Q3 plunge in German industry is clear evidence that supply-side woes are now hitting demand.
  • The services surplus in France is rising strongly; net exports likely rebounded in Q3.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 Oct 2021 German Manufacturing Crashed in Q3, but it Did Better Elsewhere

  • German manufacturing crashed in Q3, due to weakness in autos; GDP growth downgrades ahead.
  • Spanish industrial production fell again in August, but output in the auto sector rose strongly.
  • EZ gas prices continue to climb, the risk to household income is rising, but hard to quantify.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 Oct 2021 How to Understand and Use Inflation Expectations in the EZ

  • EZ inflation expectations don't predict inflation, but they're not entirely without value either.
  • Industrial production in France rose again in August; Q3 as a whole likely was decent.
  • We think the PMI surveys are underestimating actual GDP growth in Q3, especially in Spain.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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