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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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17 Jan 2022 The EZ Now Runs a Trade Deficit; Temporary, but Startling

  • We still think net trade supported GDP growth in Q4, despite the nominal goods trade deficit.
  • Leading indicators suggest net exports won't pro- vide much of a boost to GDP growth in 2022.
  • Full-year German GDP data for 2021 suggest growth was slower than previously thought in Q4.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

16 Dec 2021 Suddenly, the Near-term Path Ahead for the ECB is Less Clear

Ms. Lagarde will stick to the signal that PEPP is likely to end in March, but Omicron is a big risk to this call.

The ECB's inflation forecasts will increase today; how close to 2% will they be for 2023 and 2024?

No rate hikes in 2022, but speculation about lift-off will intensify in the next six-to-12 months.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

23 Nov 2021 Will Bund Yields Rise to Zero Next Year, If the Virus is Contained, Yes

  • Supply-demand dynamics remain supportive for low yields in EZ government bonds...
  • ...This balance will shift next year, but underlying support from the ECB will remain robust overall.
  • The trend in German net debt issuance points to bund yields rising next year, to at least zero.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

28 Oct 2021 The ECB will Push Back Against Rising Rate Expectations Today

  • Rising rate expectations are at odds with the ECB's forward guidance; we expect a push-back today.
  • We still think the PEPP will end in March, but don't look for a clear signal today either way.
  • Mixed consumer confidence data in the core, and a slowdown in headline EZ money supply growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 Oct 2021 GDP Growth Forecast Down and Inflation Forecasts Up in the EZ?

  • We look for lower consensus growth forecasts in Q4, even as inflation forecasts advance further.
  • Fiscal stimulus is a wildcard for 2022 GDP forecasts, but near-term risks remain tilted to the downside.
  • Stagflation risks are real, warning of less potent fiscal stimulus and a more constrained ECB.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Aug 2021 EZ Core Inflation Leapt in August, due Mainly to Technical Factors

  • Core inflation in the euro area rocketed in August, but we doubt that markets will notice.
  • PEPP tapering is coming, but the overall tenor of the ECB's communication remains as dovish as ever.
  • The EZ survey data are now softening, but that won't matter for GDP in Q3; for Q4, however, it might.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 July 2021 All Change at the ECB Today as It Presents Its New Inflation Target

Today's ECB meeting was supposed to be a snoozer, in which the council goes on holiday with the message that it will hold off making any major decisions on the pace of QE—signalled to be conducted at a "significantly higher pace than during the first months of the year" in Q3—until the new staff projections are released in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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Keywords for: Eurozone Documents

Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence