EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Eurozone, Q1 2022

In one line: Irish data boost the headline.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Italy, Q1 2022

In one line: A fall no more; upward revisions means the economy has now fully regained its Covid losses.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Switzerland, Q1 2022

In one line: Better than expected.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence & Detailed Q1 GDP, Germany

In one line: Consumer sentiment is still depressed; a jump in investment saved GDP growth in Q1.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

12 May 2022 GDP Growth in France is Slowing, but It's Holding up Relatively Well

Survey data point to a relatively robust French economy, but we still see a slowdown in H2.

We expect 3.0 full-year growth in France in 2022, down 0.7pp from our previous forecast.

Consumption in France will suffer from higher inflation, but we’re betting on solid growth in capex.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance inflation, France, April & GDP, Spain, Q1 2022

In one line: French inflation rises despite fall in energy rate; Spanish economy defiant in the face of Omicron and widespread strikes.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q1

In one line: Dragged down by weak services consumption. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 Apr 2022 Near-Term Risks to EZ Inflation now are Tilted to the Downside

EZ energy inflation likely will fall in April, and a cut in German fuel duties could mean a plunge.

Mr. Macron is pulling away in the polls ahead of Sunday's vote; his re-election looks like a good bet.

Business sentiment in France points to slowing GDP growth at the start of Q2, but not a collapse.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 Mar 2022 Higher Energy Prices Mean Slower Growth in Italy

• Italy is the second-most reliant major EZ economy on Russian gas, after Germany.
• Cutting reliance on Russian gas is already hurting industry; we are revising down our GDP forecasts.
• We have revised up our EZ inflation estimate for March, after Spanish & German headlines surged.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 Mar 2022 The War in Ukraine will Knock Off 0.6pp from EZ Growth in 2022

• We are revising down our euro area GDP forecast for this year, by 0.6pp to 3.2%.
• In a mild scenario, the war between Ukraine and Russia shaves 0.3pp off our 2022 forecast...
• ...But in a worst-case scenario, where the war lasts past this year, GDP growth would be 1.5pp lower.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Eurozone, Q4 2021

In one line: We look for a slightly bigger expansion in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Italy, Q4 2021

In one line: GDP growth is slowing again in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 Mar 2022 Swiss Economy Outperforms Again; Spanish Inflation Jumps

• The Swiss economy was resilient in Q4; GDP ended the year 2.0% above its pre-pandemic level.
• Growth will pick up, but inflation will remain low; the SNB will not hike rates with the ECB later this year.
• Spanish inflation jumped to an eye-watering 7.4% in February; energy prices remain a wild card.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GDP, Switzerland, Q4 2021

In one line: Pace of recovery slows but Switzerland continues to outperform. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q4

In one line: Hit by falling consumers’ spending, but less so than initially feared. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

10 Feb 2022 Soaring Imports from China are Depressing EZ Net Trade in Goods

• A sustained acceleration in imports from China is driving the deterioration in the EZ trade surplus.
• Germany's trade deficit with China blew out in 2021; will 2022 bring stabilisation?
• Watch out for two important statistical distortions in the quarterly EZ trade data.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 Feb 2022 The ECB is in a Tight Spot, Sooner than We Anticipated

• EZ inflation blew past expectations in January, leaving the ECB in a tight spot today.
• Risks are tilted towards a quicker than expected withdrawal of QE; we look for a taper to zero in Q4.
• The ECB's bank lending survey points to strong demand for credit, and banks are willing to lend.

Claus Vistesen and Melanie Debono (Eurozone Team)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance German Q4 GDP & EZ Money Supply

In one line: A recession in Germany? Real M1 growth is still slowing. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Spain, Q4 2021

In one line: Resilient at the end of 2021, but still a laggard and growth is now slowing

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Q4 GDP, France

In one line: Solid, lifted by gains in services consumption and investment. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone