Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- Italian banks are at the forefront of fears that high exposure to government bonds could start a crisis.
- We reckon unrealised losses on Italian banks’ government bonds could wipe out half their CET1...
- ...But liquidity and funding ratios are strong; we doubt this is a big macro risk in the EZ at present.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will take a breather this week; rates will be held steady and the September guidance will persist.
- We continue to think the ECB will cut rates sooner than markets and the consensus expect in 2024.
- Investor sentiment and the savings-adjusted M1 money supply growth point to a rebound in the PMIs.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Boosted by a rise in the goods balances; net trade in services fell.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A signal of slowing domestic activity at the start of Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- INSEE survey data weakened at the start of Q4, but domestic demand already has slowed sharply.
- We still think French GDP fell in Q3, by around 0.3%, due to falling net exports and inventories.
- Polls point to a swing to right in Switzerland this weekend, but the economic outlook won't shift.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The start of a sustained drop in inflation; construction reverses July’s gain in August.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation is now falling rapidly, but will it be enough to prompt the ECB to cut rates in H1 2024?
- Our new core inflation forecasts remain consistent with a first rate cut from the ECB in March.
- Accelerated disinflation in core goods was the key story in the September HICP; will it continue in Q4?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Will the rebound be delayed beyond Q4?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ZEW index suggests economic conditions were still recessionary at the start of Q4...
- ...This implies the risks to our call for German GDP to rise by a measly 0.1% q/q in Q4 are to the downside.
- The EZ economy is running on empty; almost all indicators for domestic demand are pointing down.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian headline inflation edged down in September, and it is set for a plunge in October...
- ...It should end 2023 below the ECB’s 2% target, and below inflation rates elsewhere in the big four.
- August data suggest net trade in goods boosted EZ GDP in Q3, reversing the drag in Q2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Did net trade in goods boost GDP in Q3?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Not enough for output to have avoided a fifth straight quarterly decline.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: We still think the fall in the headline will resume soon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss elections will be held at the end of this week; polls suggest a slight shift to the right...
- ...The outlook for fiscal policy and, by extension, GDP will be unchanged regardless.
- EZ headline inflation for September may be revised up a touch but it still fell sharply.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
