17 October 2023 Eurozone Monitor Brace for a Drop in Italian Inflation; EZ Goods Trade Rebounds

•  Italian headline inflation edged down in September, and it is set for a plunge in October...
• ...It should end 2023 below the ECB’s 2% target, and below inflation rates elsewhere in the big four.
• August data suggest net trade in goods boosted EZ GDP in Q3, reversing the drag in Q2.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Eurozone, August 2023

In one line: Did net trade in goods boost GDP in Q3?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Eurozone, August 2023

In one line: Not enough for output to have avoided a fifth straight quarterly decline.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, September 2023

In one line: We still think the fall in the headline will resume soon.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 October 2023 Eurozone Monitor Upcoming Swiss Election Will Not Move the Needle for the Economy

• Swiss elections will be held at the end of this week; polls suggest a slight shift to the right...
• ...The outlook for fiscal policy and, by extension, GDP will be unchanged regardless.
• EZ headline inflation for September may be revised up a touch but it still fell sharply.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone