Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- EZ construction rose in February, but less so than implied by the advance data; seasonals to blame?
- Either way, construction was a boost to EZ GDP in Q1, and it suggests risks are tilted to the upside.
- The EZ current account surplus dipped in February and will fall further; portfolio inflows remain robust.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Rising energy inflation is a threat to the June rate cut, but we think falling core inflation will do the trick.
- The early Easter sustained services inflation in March, due to a leap in airfares; it will fall in April.
- Our forecast for a July rate cut is now hanging by a thread; we’ll update our view with the April HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We see little reason why the ECB should worry about the euro if it has to cut rates before the Fed.
- Our Nowcast model now points to EZ GDP rising by 0.2% in Q1, despite soft industrial production data.
- A volatile Middle East could divert attention away from Ukraine’s war with Russia; Mr. Putin knows this.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB stood pat yesterday but sent a clear signal of a first rate cut at its next meeting, on June 6.
- We expect the Bank to cut rates by 25bp in June, and at each of the next three meetings.
- Markets have pared back expectations of ECB cuts after the hot US CPI data; that is a mistake.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A lot can still go wrong in the EZ economy, but the data suggest that GDP growth firmed in Q1.
- Early data imply that EZ services production rebounded strongly in the first quarter.
- Mild weather boosted construction in Q1, and manufacturing, ex-Ireland, improved too.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- This week’s ECB meeting will be a dovish hold; Ms. Lagarde will lay the foundation for a June cut.
- The consensus and markets see the ECB’s policy rate falling below 2.5% in 2025; we beg to differ.
- Rising production in industry and services points to upside risks to German GDP growth in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation surprised to the downside in March, but not enough for the ECB to pull the trigger next week.
- Services inflation was sustained by the early Easter in March; it will come down sharply in April.
- We expect EZ headline inflation to stabilise around 2% from August through to Q1 next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German consumer confidence remains depressed, but the headlines are poor indicators of spending.
- Rising real income growth and a stabilisation in the labour market are tailwinds for German consumers…
- ...But early-Q1 data on retail and car sales point to near-term downside risks for consumption growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation dipped in February, matching the first estimate; upside risks are now building for March.
- An upward surprise in the March and April inflation reports would put a June rate cut in jeopardy.
- We still struggle to see a perfect landing for inflation at 2%; how will the ECB respond to this?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation at 3% in Q2 likely will prevent ECB easing in June; a 50-to-75bp cut would need inflation at 2%.
- Sticky wage growth remains a risk to ECB cuts, but we think the Q1 numbers will play ball.
- It would require significant outliers in the non-HICP numbers for the ECB’s near-term path to change.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- European defence spending is ramping up and is set to double by 2026, in nominal terms.
- Europe needs to help Ukraine beat Russia, as well as rebuild its own military; the EU is here to help.
- Joint EU debt issuance to finance defence spending is coming; €100B-to-200B would be a good start.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Comments from ECB policymakers are keeping hopes of an April rate cut alive, but we still see June.
- The bar is high for the March HICP to deliver a down- side surprise big enough for the ECB to cut in April.
- We think bond yields will drift lower over the summer, before an inflection point in late Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will cut its policy rate in June, barring a big upside surprise in the inflation numbers.
- Markets now see 100bp-worth of cuts this year; we think the ECB is happy with this picture.
- Factory orders in Germany crashed in January, but mostly due to volatility in major orders.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will open the door to a June rate cut this week, while emphasising the risk of sticky inflation.
- Staff projections will show a downgrade to the ECB’s headline inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025.
- Utility margins in the Eurozone are soaring; this will soon become a hot potato for policymakers.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation fell further in February, probably to 2.5%; we think core inflation dipped by 0.3pp, to 3.0%.
- Consumers’ spending in the EZ got off to a slow start in Q1, but don’t write off the recovery just yet.
- The Swiss economy defied our expectations in Q4, boosted by strong growth in domestic demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation will fall further in February; Easter effects will then add volatility over Spring.
- The euro area composite PMI is rebounding, but Germany’s index remains stuck in the mud.
- The February PMIs pour cold water on hopes of a Q1 rebound in EZ’s moribund manufacturing sector.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Negotiated wage growth in the EZ slowed slightly in Q4; it will decelerate further at the start of 2024.
- EZ construction output rebounded in December, leaving a decent carry-over for Q1.
- The Eurozone current account surplus jumped at the end of Q4 but will soon decline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Leading indicators point to significant downside risks for German construction at the start of 2024.
- The fall in real estate prices is happening amid solid growth in rents; the cap rate is soaring as a result.
- German commercial real estate is in trouble, but cap rates are now rocketing, for both retail and office.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Consumer prices in the EZ exhibit strong seasonality throughout the year, especially in the core.
- Core inflation is falling on all seasonally adjusted indices, but the tempo varies across methodologies.
- Seasonally adjusted price momentum is rebounding, but that shouldn’t matter for the year-over-year rate.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany’s economy is in a cyclical rut; it remains to be seen whether its problems are more structural.
- Nominal GDP in Germany has been soaring, but higher prices have compressed growth in real terms.
- Many politicians in Germany want to tighten fiscal policy, but will the economy allow it?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
