1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor Less-Dire CPI Data and Outlook Should See Smaller RBI Rate Hikes

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)29th Jul 2022 15:49Emerging Asia, Daily Monitor, Weekly Monitor

Expect the RBI to moderate the speed of tightening this week, with a below-consensus 25bp rate hike.

We look for a positive surprise in Indonesia’s Q2 GDP, with growth rising to 5.5%, from 5.0% in Q1.

The quarterly bump should be huge, thanks to a bounce in public spending and big lift from trade.

brent crude core inflation cpi cpi data cpi inflation deficit durable goods exports food inflation fuel gdp growth gdp report government government consumption government spending headline growth headline inflation import growth imports india interest rate inventories ip IP growth japan July June manufacturing manufacturing pmi May monetary policy monetary policy committee mpc net trade new orders November oil oil prices output growth pmi policy public spending q1 q2 q2 gdp q3 q4 rate hike rbi recreation repo Reserve Bank of India retail sales sales growth services pmi tax cuts tax hikes total exports trade trade balance transport u.s. utilities

This publication is only available to Emerging Asia Economic Research (Monitor) subscribers

Related Publications

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Eurozone, August 2022

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, September 2022

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Spain, August 2022

Keywords for: 1 Aug 2022 Emerging Asia Monitor

brent crude, core inflation, cpi, cpi data, cpi inflation, deficit, durable goods, exports, food inflation, fuel, gdp growth, gdp report, government, government consumption, government spending, headline growth, headline inflation, import growth, imports, india, interest rate, inventories, ip, IP growth, japan, July, June, manufacturing, manufacturing pmi, May, monetary policy, monetary policy committee, mpc, net trade, new orders, November, oil, oil prices, output growth, pmi, policy, public spending, q1, q2, q2 gdp, q3, q4, rate hike, rbi, recreation, repo, Reserve Bank of India, retail sales, sales growth, services pmi, tax cuts, tax hikes, total exports, trade, trade balance, transport, u.s., utilities, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence