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Below is a list of our Emerging Asia Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Expect a market-beating 4.2% print for Thailand’s Q2 GDP today, with inventories in the driver’s seat.
The minimum wage looks set to rise by 5%-to-8%, but market wages are heading that way, in any case.
Structural labour shortages are becoming more evident, with vacancies remaining high and stable.
Indonesia’s trade surplus plunged in May, due mainly to the now-repealed ban on palm oil exports.
We still see a larger 1.2% of GDP current account surplus this year, but downside risks are building.
India’s record low trade deficit in May is bittersweet news, masking a continued rise in non-oil imports.
For the first time since February, CPI inflation saw no upside surprise in May, to the RBI’s relief...
...But sustained, if smaller rate hikes, are still more likely than not, with upstream inflation intensifying.
The WPI details show that the near-term outlook for food and core inflation remains very disconcerting.
Retail sales growth in Vietnam is heading skywards, thanks to base effects and the return of tourists.
All signs point to a punchier Q2; we have raised our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 9.0%, from 8.0%.
A clear breach of the 4% inflation ceiling is looking more inevitable; expect the first SBV hike in Q4.
Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady, at 3.50%, despite growing expectations of an imminent hike.
The Board laid out a more aggressive schedule for RRR increases, though, with credit growth flying...
...This, plus a less-troubling inflation outlook, should rein in expectations for a total of three hikes in H2.
We have raised our average inflation forecast for India in 2022, to 7.5%, following the April surprise.
The worst of oil pressures is over, but food inflation is broadening and core inflation is hardening.
We now also expect sustained rate hikes from August, with a higher terminal policy rate of 5.90%.
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