27 June 2022 Currency Chaos won't Push EM Asia to Faster or Bigger Rate Hikes

Currencies in EM Asia are tanking, with interest rate differentials moving hugely in favour of the dollar...

...But we doubt that central banks in the region will be forced to match Fed rate action like-for-like.

Reserves remain ample, and are likely to continue to be used to lean against excessive currency volatility.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

25 May 2022 BI's Higher RRR Hikes Should Temper 2022 Rate Expectations

Bank Indonesia kept its policy rate steady, at 3.50%, despite growing expectations of an imminent hike.

The Board laid out a more aggressive schedule for RRR increases, though, with credit growth flying...

...This, plus a less-troubling inflation outlook, should rein in expectations for a total of three hikes in H2.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

27 Apr 2022 Making Sense of Indonesia's Latest Curbs on Palm Oil Exports

Indonesia's ban on a subset of palm oil exports likely will last long, as the overall hit will be trivial.

The move shows that fiscal consolidation remains a big priority, where progress isn't as good as it looks.

Exporters in Thailand mainly have non-traditional markets to thank for the strong finish to Q1.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 Mar 2022 Fundamental Reasons Why EM Asia Central Banks are in No Major Rush

• Central banks in EM Asia have no choice but to up their CPI outlook , but we expect no rush to hike.
• They have time on their side, thanks to the absence of excess liquidity and lingering job market slack.
• We expect the BSP to stand pat on Thursday, as well as only a modest rise in inflation forecasts.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Mar 2022 ASEAN Factories Remain a Steady Ship, but the Good Times won't Last

• Manufacturing in ASEAN has yet to show any signs of stress amid the ongoing surge in energy prices...
• ...But the PMI details still show that momentum will ebb and that central banks need to be on high alert.
• Retail sales in Vietnam are languishing, partly because the VAT cut looks to have been a dud.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

2 Feb 2022 Some of India's Budget Math is Strange, to Say the Least

• India's FY2022/23 budget shows only a modest consolidation of the deficit, to 6.4% of GDP...

  ...But we still see every chance that it narrows below this level in FY2021/22, assuming a "normal" Q1.

  Divestment targets are finally becoming realistic, and the jury still is out on Modi's capex credentials.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

21 Jan 2022 Omicron Poses Short-Term Worries, but BI Normalisation is Coming

• Bank Indonesia is more than ready to unwind Covid support, looking at the full reversal of RRR cuts...
• ...But rate hikes are unlikely until mid-year, in spite of BI's hawkish view on the Fed; thank Omicron.
• Loan growth will surpass BI's 2022 forecast soon, and inflation is unlikely to stay a non-issue for long.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

5 Jan 2022 A Strong Finish for ASEAN Industry in 2021, but Warning Signs Abound

• The post-Delta rebound in ASEAN manufacturing was robust, with the regional PMI soaring in Q4...
• ...But the end of the honeymoon period is nigh; Omicron is here and new orders are slowing.
• Central banks beware, as we still see no let-up in accelerating upstream and downstream price rises.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia