16 May 2022 A Change of Tune from the PBoC Amidst a Slump in Lending

The PBoC has adopted new language in the wake of a slowdown in bank lending...

...But we think this is unlikely to signal a sudden pivot in monetary policy, given other constraints.

The PBoC has no choice but to accept a higher debt ratio, unless it wants to deepen the recession.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Feb 2022 It's Clichéd, But Sometimes a Crisis Really is an Opportunity

• China saw another huge current account surplus in Q4, but it is under increasing pressure.
• The support provided to China's external balance by the pandemic will fade further in 2022.
• The renminbi should weaken on a sustained basis in H2, though pressure could show as soon as Q2.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Jan 2022 Credit Growth is Grease to the Wheels, not Fuel for the Fire

• China's money and credit growth improved in December, but this isn't a stimulus surge.
• The authorities are laying down the groundwork to bail out swathes of the economy.
• We expect the Q4 GDP reading to be the weakest since the start of the pandemic.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Jan 2022 Bright in Patches, but a Largely Dismal End to China's 2021

• Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
• Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
• Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

Craig BothamChina+