Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

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6 May 2020 China's Trade Woes Probably Came Back with a Vengeance in April

The collapse in global demand last month will have derailed China's trade recovery, causing exports to drop unpleasantly month-on-month after the bounce of around 45% in...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)5th May 2020 20:10China+

29 Jan 2020 What Policy Measures Can we Expect to Cushion Corona-impact

The extent of shut downs within China is now reaching extreme levels, going far beyond services and threatening demand for commodities, as well as posing a severe risk to the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)28th Jan 2020 19:10China+

17 Jan 2020 Phase One Deal Puts a Grey Cloud Over End-2020, Silver Lining now

To avoid rocking the 2020 boat, the Phase One trade deal needed to be sufficiently vague, so that neither side, and particularly Mr. Trump, would have much cause to kick up a fuss...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)16th Jan 2020 19:10China+

6 Jan 2020 China's Hukou Reforms, Useful but no Substitute for Looser Money

Late last year, China said it would scrap residency restrictions for cities with populations less than three million, while the rules for those of three-to-five million will be...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)5th Jan 2020 19:10China+

16 Dec 2019 "Phase One" Picked Low-Hanging Fruit... Now for the Hard Part

ate last week, China and the U.S. reached an agreement, averting the planned U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese consumer goods that were slated to be imposed on December 15.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)15th Dec 2019 19:10China+

25 Nov 2019 Japanese October Retail Sales Likely Plunged, Despite Stable Inflation

Japan's CPI inflation was stable at 0.2% in October, despite the sales tax hike, thanks to a combination of offsetting measures from the government and a deepening of energy...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)24th Nov 2019 19:10China+

13 Nov 2019 Japan's Pending Stimulus Marks a Return to the Bad Old Days

PM Abe last week asked the cabinet to put together a package of measures in a 15-month budget aimed at bolstering GDP growth through productivity enhancement, in addition to the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)12th Nov 2019 19:10China+

10 Oct 2019 A Sovereignty Threat is a Deal-breaker for China

Since the protests in Hong Kong began, we've become increasingly convinced that China is backing away from a comprehensive trade deal with Mr. Trump.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)9th Oct 2019 20:10China+

8 Oct 2019 PBoC Gives State-Owned Banks a Break Ahead of the 70th Anniversary

China was in lockdown ahead of the 70th Anniversary last week, as is typical around important political events.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)7th Oct 2019 20:10China+

23 Sept 2019 PBoC Refrains from a Rate Cut a Third Time, it's Still Coming

The PBoC left its interest rate corridor, including the Medium-term Lending Facility rate, unchanged last Friday, but published the reformed Loan Prime Rate modestly lower, at...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)22nd Sep 2019 20:10China+

19 Sept 2019 The U.S. Trade Deal is More About Disaster Mitigation for Japan

President Trump wrote to Congress on Monday, saying that the U.S. finally has reached a trade deal with Japan, about a month after he and Prime Minister Abe announced an agreement...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)18th Sep 2019 20:10China+

18 Sept 2019 Markets have let the BoJ off the Hook the Bank will be Grateful

Markets have given the BoJ a break this month, with the 10-year JGB yield rising back into the implied band around the 0% target, and the yen snapping its appreciation streak.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)17th Sep 2019 20:10China+

17 Sept 2019 China Needs a Rate Cut and an Interim Deal it will Prioritise Rates

China's activity data yesterday made pretty uncomfortable reading for policymakers.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)16th Sep 2019 20:10China+

16 Sept 2019 Japan's Domestic Demand Holding up Thanks to Services, it Won't Last

Japan's tertiary index edged up 0.1% month-on-month in July, after the 0.1% decrease in June.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)15th Sep 2019 20:10China+

12 Sept 2019 Is China Making a Big Monetary Policy Blunder

China's money and credit numbers were once again unspectacular in August. M2 growth edged up to 8.2% year-over-year, from 8.1% in July.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)11th Sep 2019 20:10China+

6 Sept 2019 China Signals Stimulus Top-ups are on the Way

A growing number of economists have marked down their forecasts for Chinese growth next year to below the critical 6% year-over-year rate, required to ensure that the authorities...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)5th Sep 2019 20:10China+

30 Aug 2019 Trade Spats are Starting to Hurt Business Sentiment in Korea

The recent spate of manufacturing business survey indices from Korea show that sentiment is deteriorating in the wake of its trade spat with Japan and the re-intensification of...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)29th Aug 2019 20:10China+

21 Aug 2019 China's Authorities Signal Further Easing, but Space is Limited

The PBoC's reformed one-year Loan Prime Rate was published yesterday at 4.25%, compared with 4.31% on the previous LPR, and below the benchmark lending rate, 4.35%.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)20th Aug 2019 20:10China+

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