Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
- The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
- Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.
- Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
- Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
- Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.
- Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
- Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
- The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.
- Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
- ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
- We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.
- China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
- Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
- The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.
- China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
- We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
- Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.
- China's latest trade data were better than expected, setting up a potential upside surprise for Q4.
- Energy imports will weigh more heavily on the trade balance, but external demand appears robust.
- Next year will be more challenging, given base effects and softening demand.
- The worsening energy crunch weighed heavily on Chinese manufacturing in October.
- Inflationary pressures are building, thanks to energy price liberalisation.
- Shortages of natural gas and fuel remain a risk to production and supply chains.
- Japanese exports fell in September, due to a double whammy from China and supply problems.
- Weaker demand from China was worsened by fac- tory closures, hitting exports of intermediate goods.
- Cars, in particular, took a heavy blow from snarled supply chains.
- Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
- Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
- Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.
- Expectations for a Chinese export slowdown in September were confounded...
- ...But this was due chiefly to one-off factors, and imports showed the impact of China's crises.
- Exports will falter next month, and supply chains will feel the added pressure.
- The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
- Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
- China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.
- No cause for concern in foreign exchange reserves data.
- Capital outflow pressure appears modest and re- serves sufficient, for now.
- Property sector stress is growing, however, and cracks are appearing for key actors.
- China's energy rationing is already hurting domes- tic economic activity...
- ...But it may represent opportunities for exporters of energy intensive goods.
- Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.
- Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
- Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
- Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.
- Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
- China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
- The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover
- China's activity data for August disappointed across-the-board, but grim retail sales stood out...
- ...A September bounce is looking unlikely, due to the Fujian wave; the longer-term story is still bleak.
- Industrial output and fixed investment were less bad last month, thanks partly to the infrastructure drive.
- China's trade surplus surprised in August, with two- way trade enjoying hefty rebounds from July.
- Activity likely benefited from front-loading, though, and the orders data still point to a sharp correction.
- FX reserves fell only marginally in August, suggest- ing a bounce-back in capital outflows.
- Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
- ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
- ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.
- Korean exports were solid in August, including those to China, despite the latter's Delta woes.
- But Chinese demand still is underperforming, and activity last month likely flattered by front-loading.
- More broadly, at least, Korea's trade data point to a more solid end to 2021 for global trade.