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PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.
Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.
Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.
China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...
... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.
More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.
Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.
We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.
It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the Chinese monetary authorities are shifting to a broad-based easing stance.
Energy inflation is not straightforward to forecast in China, thanks to the lack of clarity over the CPI weights.
Data in the last few months have suggested that China's foreign trade and manufacturing sector is underperforming compared with Korea's.
The official manufacturing PMI indicates that bottlenecks remain a problem.
China's official manufacturing PMI looks exposed in the context of the recent softening of regional trade flows. Korean 20-day export growth for June slowed to 29.4% year-over-year, from 53.0% in May.
The BoJ meeting this week could be live, with an extension of the Special Funds Supplying operation, likely to March next year, from September currently.
Overall, data available so far for May point to a modest improvement in Chinese manufacturing.
M1 growth dropped further in April, to 6.2% year- over-year, from March's already-low 7.1%.
April CPI inflation—to be released next Tuesday— likely picked up to around 0.6%, from 0.4% in March.
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