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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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2 Mar 2022 Winter's Chill Starts to Fade in China, but Spring Isn't Here Yet

  • China's activity surveys were better than expected in February, and a touch of optimism is warranted...
  • ...but should be freighted with caution, given holiday effects, and evidence that demand is still soft.
  • Policy stimulus is feeding through, but stability is the watchword, not explosive growth.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Feb 2022 A Winter Chill in East Asia in Early February, but a Thaw is Coming

  • Korean exports had a slow start to February, chiefly because of holidays in Korea and China.
  • Japanese manufacturing similarly looks soft at the moment, but should recover almost fully in March.
  • Little sign of supply chain improvements so far, but a reopening is underway in China.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Feb 2022 Korean PMIs Lend Further Support to Strong External Demand Picture

  • Korea's manufacturing sector is having a happy new year, despite Omicron outbreaks.
  • The PMI survey provides encouraging signs for global demand, with new export orders bouncing...
  • ...It also points to an easing of some bottlenecks, with more to come as stockpiling fades.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Jan 2022 Trade Regathers Momentum, but Bottlenecks are Building Again Too

  • Japanese December export data are better than they look, along with the rest of the region.
  • External demand still looks robust, despite Omicron, but supply challenges loom large.
  • Omicron is in fact more worrying from a supply perspective, given its implications for China.

Craig BothamChina+

7 Jan 2022 Service Growth is Overstated, but Inflation Really is Fading

  • China's service sector PMIs are surprisingly strong, given the Covid outbreaks in December.
  • We think financial activity is distorting the readings, which are unlikely to be followed by real growth.
  • Inflation pressures are receding, leaving policy free to focus on the growth challenge this year.

Craig BothamChina+

5 Jan 2022 Regional PMIs Show Fading Inflation Despite Bottlenecks

  • Manufacturing PMIs point to an inflection in inflation pressure, despite stretched supply chains.
  • External demand has weakened, but we think it will prove to be short lived.
  • Recent Covid outbreaks in China threaten renewed tightening of global bottlenecks.

Craig BothamChina+

20 Dec 2021 The BoJ Takes Another Step Back, but Don't Call it Hawkish

  • The BoJ kept its main policy tools unchanged in December, but tinkered around the edges.
  • An announced reduction in corporate debt purchases had already begun in practice.
  • The taper is offset by an extension of SME lending, which has been a bigger balance sheet driver.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Dec 2021 Further Tentative Signs of Easing Bottlenecks in Japanese Exports

Japanese exports jumped in November, amidst signs of reduced supply chain pressures.

Unfortunately, the outlook for December is dimming, thanks in part to Chinese Covid policy.

Omicron is set to renew supply disruptions, just as they were easing, but it will also weaken demand.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

November's data are a mixed bag, but investment weakness, led by property, is the main concern.

Infrastructure should begin to offset property soon, but manufacturing faces its own challenges.

Omicron has entered China, and will intensify the cycle of zero-Covid lockdowns.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Dec 2021 Service Sector and SME Revivals are Boosting Japanese Growth

Japan's Tankan survey points to an improvement in Q4, particularly outside manufacturing.

Success in containing Covid, for now, has boosted the services sector, and smaller firms are reviving.

Inflationary pressures continued to build in Q4, but will not disturb BoJ policy yet.

Craig BothamChina+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence