Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

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1 Mar 2021 Chinese Liquidity has a lot to Say About Where Oil Prices will End up

1 Mar 2021 Chinese Liquidity has a lot to Say About Where Oil Prices will End up

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)28th Feb 2021 19:10China+

8 Feb 2021 Stress-testing our Theory of Further M1 Acceleration in Q1

Stress-testing our Theory of Further M1 Acceleration in Q1

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)7th Feb 2021 19:10China+

12 Jan 2021 Services Inflation is About to Stage a Recovery, Repairing Margins

Services Inflation is About to Stage a Recovery, Repairing Margins

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)11th Jan 2021 19:10China+

24 Dec 2020 Is China Santa or the Grinch in the Global Inflation Outlook

China plays a pivotal role in the global inflation outlook.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)23rd Dec 2020 19:10China+

1 Dec 2020 More Questions than Answers after India's Hefty Q3 GDP Rebound

India's GDP report for the third quarter surprised to the upside, with the year-over-year contraction moderating significantly to -7.5%, from -23.9% in Q2.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)30th Nov 2020 19:10China+

30 Nov 2020 Enjoy the Roller-Coaster in Chinese Industrial Profits, It Won't Last Long

China's industrial profits data for October are a taste of what the silly season for economic data will look like for the first quarter of 2021.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)29th Nov 2020 19:10China+

16 Nov 2020 The Door Just Shut for a December RBI Cut, Easing Will Resume in Q1

CPI inflation in India rose unexpectedly in October to 7.6%, from 7.3% in September, putting the final nail in the coffin for a potential RBI rate cut next month.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)15th Nov 2020 19:10China+

11 Nov 2020 China's October Price Misses are Unlikely to Open the Rate Cut Door

China's inflation data yesterday were disappointing, but market's knee-jerk view of what they mean for PBoC action is unwarranted.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)10th Nov 2020 19:10China+

10 Nov 2020 China's Exporters will Soon Hit a Covid-19 Speedbump

October is likely to be as good as it gets for Chinese exporters for some time, with Covid-19 sweeping through developed markets once again.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)9th Nov 2020 17:00China+

27 Oct 2020 Japan is Trying to "Live with Covid", but Spending is Hitting a Ceiling

Japan and Korea dealt with their second waves of Covid-19 in the third quarter in completely different ways.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)26th Oct 2020 20:10China+

26 Oct 2020 Outright CPI Deflation in Japan is Here, Expect an Exit by Mid-2021

Outright CPI deflation likely already has taken hold in Japan. Friday's data showed inflation falling to zero percent in September, from 0.2% in the previous month.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)25th Oct 2020 20:10China+

23 Oct 2020 India's GDP Bounce is Mirroring China's Supply-Demand Mismatch

India's economy staged a more than respectable rebound in the third quarter, enough to convince us to upgrade our forecast substantially.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)22nd Oct 2020 20:10China+

16 Oct 2020 China will Stage Only a Narrow Escape from PPI Deflation in Q2

The moderation in PPI deflation in China stalled in December, underscoring the difficulty in returning to the black with slack persisting in the economy.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)15th Oct 2020 20:10China+

12 Oct 2020 The RBI is Locked and Loaded, a December Cut Appears Inevitable

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously on Friday to keep the repo rate unchanged, at 4.00%, as widely expected. The six members also retained...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)10th Oct 2020 20:10China+

6 Oct 2020 Korea's Export Recovery in Q3 was Brisk... but the Easy Bit is Now Over

Korean exports ended the third quarter on a solid note, though nowhere near as strongly as the headline growth rate suggested.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)5th Oct 2020 20:10China+

1 Oct 2020 Is Q3 as Good as it Gets for China's Manufacturing PMIs

China's manufacturers ended the third quarter on a fairly strong note.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)30th Sep 2020 20:10China+

30 Sept 2020 Korea's Mid-Quarter Wobble All But Confirms Third Straight GDP Drop

Korea's main activity data for August showed that the economy clearly wobbled in the wake of the country's second wave of Covid-19, and the social distancing measures...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)29th Sep 2020 20:10China+

23 Sept 2020 Expect the RBI to Hold Next Week, but Make a Larger Cut in December

The stickiness of CPI inflation in India in recent months should all but guarantee another quiet meeting for the RBI next week.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)22nd Sep 2020 20:10China+

21 Sept 2020 Looming Deflation won't Bother the BoJ, but Longer-Term Clouds Will

A spell of outright CPI deflation in Japan is just around the corner. Headline inflation slipped to 0.2% in August, from 0.3% in the previous month, as the drag from the discounts...

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)20th Sep 2020 20:10China+

14 Sept 2020 Enough Fuel has Been Spent to Power China's Recovery into 2021

China's economic recovery over the next twelve months remains secure, barring another major outbreak of Covid-19 domestically, or another synchronised lockdown globally.

Miguel Chanco (Senior Asia Economist)13th Sep 2020 20:10China+

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