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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

supply

3 May 2022 Zero-Covid, Sub-Zero Growth, China's Economy Cratered in April

The tightest zero-Covid policies since the Wuhan outbreak have crushed Chinese economic activity.

Spillovers to global trade are already apparent, and will get worse before they get better.

Zero-Covid is not going away; the stakes are too high, so be ready for disruption throughout 2022.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Apr 2022 The BoJ will Remain Indifferent as Inflation Approaches Its Target

Japanese inflation is still rising, and is all but guaranteed to break through its target in April...

...But the BoJ has already indicated it has no intention of changing tack; rates won't rise this year.

Policymakers are flirting with the idea of currency intervention, but Kuroda won't take the lead.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Apr 2022 China Drags on Exports, Adding to Japan's Problems as the Yen Drops

Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.

Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.

Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Apr 2022 Plenty of Scope, and Need, for Further Easing in China

China's inflation outlook remains very different to most major economies, despite the energy shock.

The PBoC is able to ease further, with inflation far from its target, but is proving reluctant.

Private sector demand for credit still looks soft, and the PBoC’s power is limited, absent fiscal action.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Mar 2022 More of the Wrong Sort of Inflation for the BoJ, as the Yen Plummets

  • Energy and food push inflation higher, and Japan is set to beat its target next month...
  • ...but the BoJ won't be moved, as demand-pull inflation remains as elusive as ever.
  • Yen weakness is the biggest challenge to the BoJ's position, and likely will force a shift by H2.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Mar 2022 Korean Exports Falter as Demand and Supply Issues Bite

  • Preliminary trade data from Korea point to a loss of momentum for global trade in March.
  • War and Covid have tightened some bottlenecks, but demand is also under pressure from oil prices.
  • The PBoC again opted not to ramp up monetary easing, despite recent messaging from Beijing.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Mar 2022 China's 2022 Work Report, Road Map or Wish-List

  • Slower export growth provides a taster of the challenges facing China's economy in 2022.
  • The Work Report—a government scorecard and road map—suggests a reliance on infrastructure...
  • ...but convincing local governments and banks to do their part is going to be difficult, and risky.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Feb 2022 Japanese Inflation is Creeping Higher, but the Target is Still Distant

  • Tokyo CPI inflation reached its highest level since December 2019 in February, and will climb further.
  • The target is still unlikely to be breached, however, and this is not the type of inflation the BoJ wants.
  • The BoK remains hawkish, despite holding rates, and the hiking cycle has further to run.

Craig BothamChina+

24 Feb 2022 Ukraine, Energy Prices a Bigger Worry than Awkwardness for China

  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine puts China in a tricky position diplomatically, but it won't mind too much...
  • ...What matters more to China is the impact on energy prices, at a time of softening growth.
  • Announcements signal more support from the centre, but bang-for-buck will be lower than usual.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Feb 2022 A Winter Chill in East Asia in Early February, but a Thaw is Coming

  • Korean exports had a slow start to February, chiefly because of holidays in Korea and China.
  • Japanese manufacturing similarly looks soft at the moment, but should recover almost fully in March.
  • Little sign of supply chain improvements so far, but a reopening is underway in China.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Feb 2022 China Weighs on Japanese Exports, but Weakness is Overstated

  • Japanese export growth slowed unexpectedly in January, but it's not as bad as it looks...
  • ..factory closures in China, thanks to holidays, pollution, and Covid, explain much of the weakness.
  • We remain positive on the global demand backdrop for exports, but supply congestion is rising.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Feb 2022 Japan Returns to Growth, but the Bumpy Ride isn't Over

  • Japanese GDP growth returned to positive territory in Q4, thanks to a rebound in consumption.
  • Consumption will be under pressure in Q1, thanks to Omicron, but investment should recover.
  • Chinese stimulus remains very modest, illustrated by a net withdrawal of liquidity this month.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Feb 2022 The State Sector Doubles Down as Risk Appetite Dwindles

  • Record weakness in Chinese M1 growth is only partly attributable to seasonal and base effects...
  • ...Weaker risk appetite, and softer economic activity, underlie the drop in liquid deposits.
  • Credit growth continued to become more heavily dominated by the state in January.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: Money Supply, China, January

In one line: the PBoC pumps more cash into the state sector as risk appetite dwindles

Craig BothamChina+

10 Feb 2022 Regional Manufacturing Faces a Drag from China

  • Regional manufacturing PMIs have diverged in recent months, thanks to Chinese factory closures.
  • Japan and Korea likely will converge towards China, but should be cushioned by external demand.
  • China's employment situation is getting worse, but policymakers are staying the course, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

7 Feb 2022 China's Battle with Omicron is Imposing Real Economic Costs

  • China is struggling to contain Covid, despite more aggressive suppression policies.
  • The cost of zero-Covid is rising with variant transmissibility, but a near-term pivot is unlikely.
  • We expect China to stick to its guns in 2023, but the trade-offs are shifting.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Feb 2022 Korean PMIs Lend Further Support to Strong External Demand Picture

  • Korea's manufacturing sector is having a happy new year, despite Omicron outbreaks.
  • The PMI survey provides encouraging signs for global demand, with new export orders bouncing...
  • ...It also points to an easing of some bottlenecks, with more to come as stockpiling fades.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Feb 2022 Korean Exports are Doing Better than the Data Suggest

  • Korean exports indicate continued strong external demand, despite the January slowdown.

    Holiday distortions and base effects weigh on the year-over-year number.

    Bottlenecks, and Chinese factory closures, are the main risks to the outlook.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Feb 2022 A Trifecta of Disruptions Hits Chinese Activity in January

  • Chinese factory closures—thanks to Covid, holi- days, and pollution—led to soft manufacturing data.
  • Covid alone is the prime suspect for weakness in services activity, and is not yet under control.
  • Policy is yet to turn growth around, but we expect the floor to emerge by March.

Craig BothamChina+

31 Jan 2022 Japan's Inflation is Not Quite as Weak as it Appears

  • Tokyo CPI inflation was stronger than it looked in January, distorted by government policy.
  • Inflation should start to rebound by Q2, but will not prompt any changes from the BoJ.
  • The PBOC has been busy, but it's getting ready for the holidays, not panicking about growth.

Craig BothamChina+

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