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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

private consumption

1 Dec 2021 Stability and the Easing of Stagflation Risk in China

  • Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
  • The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
  • Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Nov 2021 An Energy Boost Quickens the Pulse of Japanese Inflation

  • Headline inflation in Japan is on the rise,though still driven by transitory factors.
  • Underlying inflationary pressures remain weak, but should get a brief boost from fiscal policy soon.
  • The newest Covid variant generates a huge amount of uncertainty, and carries large downside risks.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Nov 2021 Infrastructure Spending is Coming, but Less than you Hope

  • Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
  • Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
  • ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

  • Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
  • Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
  • The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Nov 2021 Japan's Recovery Can't Afford Policy Mistakes

  • Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
  • A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
  • Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Oct 2021 The BoJ Turns Bearish on Near- Term Risks

  • No change in policy settings from the BoJ, but a decided turn for the worse in the growth outlook.
  • The coronavirus, coupled with supply-side issues, is weighing on the short-term outlook.
  • Currency weakness is drawing greater attention, and we think the BoJ will need to act next year.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2021 Energy Crisis will have a Greater Short-Term Impact than Evergrande

  • Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
  • Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
  • Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2021 A Property Sector Microcosm: The Economics of Evergrande

  • Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
  • China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
  • The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover

Craig BothamChina+

22 Sept 2021 Evergrande: No Big Bailout, but no Lehman Moment, Either

  • Growing fears of defaults by Evergrande have caused jitters in funding markets...
  • …But the consensus view is right; this is not China's Lehman moment.
  • Beijing can contain the worst, but the blow to land prices and confidence means slower growth ahead.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 Sept 2021 August Retail Sales were Grim, and the Scope for a Bounce is Narrow

  • China's activity data for August disappointed across-the-board, but grim retail sales stood out...
  • ...A September bounce is looking unlikely, due to the Fujian wave; the longer-term story is still bleak.
  • Industrial output and fixed investment were less bad last month, thanks partly to the infrastructure drive.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Sept 2021 China's Equity Rebound will Lack Fundamental Drivers

  • Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
  • ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
  • ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

17 Aug 2021 The Infrastructure Boost may not Come in Time to Salvage Q3

Industrial production growth slowed sharply in July; no signs yet of infrastructure picking up the slack.

Delta is adding to the recent misery in retail sales; a Q3 GDP growth downgrade is now on the cards.

Japan's economy stabilised in the second quarter despite the rolling Covid hit and soft lockdowns.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 Aug 2021 China is Having the "Mid-Cycle" from Hell

The zero-tolerance approach to Covid has been a part of China's success story...

... It's now a hurdle for valuations to climb; a shift toward Covid management is needed...

... That could catalyse a behavioural transition from savings normalisation to active wealth run-down.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Aug 2021 PBoC Tightening Would be Imminent if Not for the Delta Variant

PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.

Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.

Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 July 2021 Local Government Expenditure will Soon Pick up, but Soon Enough?

China's on-balance sheet government deficit has recovered fast since the initial Covid hit early last year, reaching a seasonally adjusted 3.9% of GDP in Q1, on our calculations, up from the trough of 8.2% in Q1 last year, leaving it easily above the 5.3% average through 2019.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

17 June 2021 China Drops the Baton in the Switch From Manufacturing to Services

China's activity data were disappointing for May, raising serious questions about a limbo period in the middle of the year. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

9 June 2021 Japan's Q1 GDP Upgrade was a Bit Disappointing Under the Surface

Japan has been a laggard in the vaccine race, with the virus keeping the economy on a weak footing into this quarter and the next.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

7 June 2021 Having Your Cake and Eating it as the Household Savings Rate Falls

China is at a critical point in the recovery. The economy is switching lanes from the supply-led, export-supported manufacturing surge to consumer and services drivers.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

19 May 2021 Japan's Q1 Capex Disappoints, but Greater Optimism is Warranted

Japan's GDP contracted in Q1, by 1.3% quarter- on-quarter, after the 2.8% increase in Q4.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

17 May 2021 What will Happen When Services Really get Going?

Last week, we explained how deteriorating monetary trends led us to revise down our GDP growth forecast for next year.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence