Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

population

16 Sept 2021 August Retail Sales were Grim, and the Scope for a Bounce is Narrow

  • China's activity data for August disappointed across-the-board, but grim retail sales stood out...
  • ...A September bounce is looking unlikely, due to the Fujian wave; the longer-term story is still bleak.
  • Industrial output and fixed investment were less bad last month, thanks partly to the infrastructure drive.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

27 Aug 2021 The BoK Takes a Calculated Risk, to Re-focus on High Household Debt

  • The Monetary Policy Board kicked off normalisation yesterday with a 25-basis point hike, to 0.75%.
  • Korea still is deep in the Covid woods, especially as protection from prior infection is very low...
  • ...But rapid jabs give the BoK room to manoeuvre, and re-focus towards curbing financial imbalances.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 Aug 2021 China is Having the "Mid-Cycle" from Hell

The zero-tolerance approach to Covid has been a part of China's success story...

... It's now a hurdle for valuations to climb; a shift toward Covid management is needed...

... That could catalyse a behavioural transition from savings normalisation to active wealth run-down.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Aug 2021 PBoC Tightening Would be Imminent if Not for the Delta Variant

PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.

Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.

Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 July 2021 Supporting Green Finance Could Become a Major BoJ Policy Plank

The BoJ's policy meeting on Friday is set to provide an outline of the fund-provisioning scheme, announced at its June meeting, to support green finance.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 July 2021 Export Trends Remain Weak Despite the June Pop

Chinese exports surprised to the upside in June, with growth picking up to 32.2% year-over-year, from 27.9% in May.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

29 June 2021 Don't Write off a Consumer Spending Pop Just Yet

The potential for a consumption-led rebound in Chinese GDP growth is being underestimated, and we still expect a pop of faster growth.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

22 June 2021 The PBoC will Continue with its Balancing Act, For Now

The PBoC continues to hold off on tightening, as it waits for something closer to herd immunity, and to see how the economy responds to "freedom".

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

4 June 2021 Did the U.S. Stimulus Give the Trade Cycle a Final Boost in May

Chinese exports have recovered much more quickly than elsewhere, thanks in large part to the still strong command element of the economy. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

26 May 2021 The BoK's Job is to Play it Cool While Uncertainty Remains High

The BoK looks set to remain in a holding pattern, paying lip service to financial imbalances, from housing, to Bitcoin, for the remainder of this year, though a hike still looks likely early in 2022. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

24 May 2021 China's Reopening Story Remains in Tact Despite Slow M1 Growth

Normally, when M1 growth slows, and credit conditions tighten, that's it for the Chinese cycle. We think the peak of M1 growth, for now, was in January, and credit conditions appeared to tighten in the last few months.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

21 May 2021 Questions are Being Answered for China, but Some Remain

The PBoC has slowed up on the pace of tightening in recent months, with a question mark hanging over the economy. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

17 May 2021 What will Happen When Services Really get Going?

Last week, we explained how deteriorating monetary trends led us to revise down our GDP growth forecast for next year.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 May 2021 The PBoC's Digital Yuan is Just Another Way of Keeping Control

We have to admit that the speed of China's recovery outpaced our initial expectations last year.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 Apr 2021 When will China's Services Inflation Begin to Gain Traction

The big question facing Chinese CPI inflation is when services inflation will finally begin to pick up.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

11 Mar 2021 Disappointing M1 numbers, but Still a 2021 GDP growth Uptrend

We've been waiting with bated breath to see how far China's M1 acceleration would go.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault,