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The zero-tolerance approach to Covid has been a part of China's success story...
... It's now a hurdle for valuations to climb; a shift toward Covid management is needed...
... That could catalyse a behavioural transition from savings normalisation to active wealth run-down.
PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.
Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.
Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.
The BoJ's policy meeting on Friday is set to provide an outline of the fund-provisioning scheme, announced at its June meeting, to support green finance.
Chinese exports surprised to the upside in June, with growth picking up to 32.2% year-over-year, from 27.9% in May.
The potential for a consumption-led rebound in Chinese GDP growth is being underestimated, and we still expect a pop of faster growth.
The PBoC continues to hold off on tightening, as it waits for something closer to herd immunity, and to see how the economy responds to "freedom".
Chinese exports have recovered much more quickly than elsewhere, thanks in large part to the still strong command element of the economy.
The BoK looks set to remain in a holding pattern, paying lip service to financial imbalances, from housing, to Bitcoin, for the remainder of this year, though a hike still looks likely early in 2022.
Normally, when M1 growth slows, and credit conditions tighten, that's it for the Chinese cycle. We think the peak of M1 growth, for now, was in January, and credit conditions appeared to tighten in the last few months.
The PBoC has slowed up on the pace of tightening in recent months, with a question mark hanging over the economy.
Last week, we explained how deteriorating monetary trends led us to revise down our GDP growth forecast for next year.
We have to admit that the speed of China's recovery outpaced our initial expectations last year.
The big question facing Chinese CPI inflation is when services inflation will finally begin to pick up.
We've been waiting with bated breath to see how far China's M1 acceleration would go.
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