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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

nominal gdp

2 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Reality Reasserts Itself in China, as the Reopening Rebound Fades

China’s PMIs fell in July, reversing the June bounce, as the gains from reopening were exhausted.

Other sources of demand are few and far between, with stimulus efforts limited in scope and ambition...

...and global demand on the wane amidst multiple headwinds, as clearly shown by Korean export data.

Craig BothamChina+

18 July 2022 A False Dawn in June Data, as China's Economy Shrinks in Q2

Official data came closer to the truth than expected, showing a very weak Q2 for Chinese GDP.

June activity data showed a stronger bounce than anticipated, but this seems unsustainable.

Stimulus remains unequal to the task of reviving growth, and the target now looks doomed.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15 JULY 2022: Official GDP - somewhat surprisingly - confirms a terrible Q2 for China

More of a slowdown for GDP than expected

A strong month for manufacturing, but momentum is fading

Subsidies pulled forward retail sales growth

Property continues to weigh on fixed asset investment

The reopening bounce for real estate proved underwhelming

Craig BothamChina+

11 July 2022 China is Headed for a Balance Sheet Recession in Q2

We think China entered a balance sheet recession in Q2, and policy needs recalibrating to fix it.

The combination of the property downturn, tech crackdown, and zero-Covid, have hit asset values.

Balance sheet repair takes time, and breaks monetary transmission; fiscal support is needed.

Craig BothamChina+

7 June 2022 The Metric Chinese Policymakers Care About Most is Yet to Recover

Employment—the ultimate goal of China’s growth targets—fell further in May, despite reopening.

We expect further support to be rolled out until the situation shows a sustained improvement.

Price pressures still look modest, and consumer inflation likely edged only slightly higher in May.

Craig BothamChina+

1 June 2022 A Dead Cat Bounce for Chinese Activity, but Reanimation is Nigh

Chinese PMIs rose in May, but are still sub-50, signalling month-on-month declines.

We expect a return to growth in June, as zero-Covid restrictions ease further, but it will be gradual.

The latest stimulus announcements provide a touch of new money, but still look lacklustre.

Craig BothamChina+

19 May 2022 Japan's Economy Struggles with Covid and Rising Costs

Japanese GDP shrank in Q1, thanks to Covid at home, and abroad, but should recover in Q2.

Both consumption and investment have scope for significant catch-up, aided by fiscal stimulus.

Chinese house prices fell again in April, as attempts at shoring up the sector struggle to find purchase.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 MAY 2022: Japan's economy shrank at the start of 2022

Japanese growth should bounce back in Q2

China’s property sector is still deteriorating

Craig BothamChina+

17 May 2022 Recession Now Looks Unavoidable for China, thanks to Zero-Covid

We are lowering our Chinese GDP forecast, as the data for April were closer to reality than expected.

Prolonged zero-Covid restrictions risk permanent economic scarring, limiting any rebound.

China’s property sector is a separate—and over- looked—drag on activity, and set to persist.

Craig BothamChina+

16 May 2022 A Change of Tune from the PBoC Amidst a Slump in Lending

The PBoC has adopted new language in the wake of a slowdown in bank lending...

...But we think this is unlikely to signal a sudden pivot in monetary policy, given other constraints.

The PBoC has no choice but to accept a higher debt ratio, unless it wants to deepen the recession.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Apr 2022 The PBoC Buckles Up for the Renminbi's Wild Ride

China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.

The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.

April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.

Craig BothamChina+

21 Apr 2022 China Drags on Exports, Adding to Japan's Problems as the Yen Drops

Lockdowns and shuttered factories in China appear to be the culprit behind slowing Japanese exports.

Further weakness seems inevitable as Chinese policy tightens, and regional supply chains collapse.

Underperforming exports again raise questions about the benefits of a weaker yen.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Apr 2022 Caught on the Horns of a Dilemma, with Chinese Characteristics

China's economy beat expectations in Q1, but is still falling short of the 2022 growth target.

The GDP data probably overstate economic growth, but either way things will get worse in Q2.

The battle with Covid is proving extremely costly; it will necessitate more stimulus, and soon.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18 APR 2022: Slightly better than expected, but worse to come for China

A dilemma for policymakers

Factory closures weighed on industrial production

Infrastructure supported sagging FAI, but not for much longer

The biggest Covid casualty will continue to bleed out

Craig BothamChina+

11 Apr 2022 Omicron Should Weigh Heavily on Chinese Q1 GDP, in Theory

We are downgrading our outlook for Chinese growth, as zero-Covid policies continue to tighten. 

Data quality is more questionable than ever, though February was softer than it looked. 

Policy support will eventually arrive, but little of substance has materialised, so far. 

Craig BothamChina+

4 Apr 2022 Whether China Sneezes, or Locks Down, Asia Catches a Cold

  • China's lockdowns and other restrictions weighed on regional activity in March, particularly exports.
  • Factory closures in China have tightened some bottlenecks, but others may have loosened.
  • The war in Ukraine has added to cost pressures, and worse is to come on both fronts.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Mar 2022 Japanese Export Momentum Wanes, as Global Problems Mount

  • Japanese exports bounced back in February, as holiday effects reversed, but should fade from here.
  • Challenges are growing for both demand and supply, with no clear resolution in sight for either.
  • China's property market shows no sign of recovery, and policymakers are getting nervous.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Mar 2022 Chinese Stimulus Underwhelms as Risk Appetite Remains Muted

  • Monetary easing is yet to result in more credit reaching the private sector, as lending slows.
  • The state sector is still the driving force behind credit expansion, amidst elevated risk aversion.
  • We expect the policy response to strengthen now the NPC is over, but remember, stability is the goal.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 09.03.2022: Energy price pressures build for China

The low point for CPI inflation this year has been reached 

Producer pain is building once again

A softer end to 2021 than originally thought for Japan

Craig BothamChina+

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