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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

nominal gdp

18 Jan 2022 A Better Year for Consumption, but Now Normal Service Resumes

  • Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
  • The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
  • ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 17.01.22 - A mostly stronger than expected end to 2021 in China

Manufacturing props up Q4 growth as quarterly momentum improves

Industrial production sprints into the finish

Property was still a hefty headwind in December

A terrible month for the consumer

A modest policy salve

Craig BothamChina+

14 Jan 2022 Credit Growth is Grease to the Wheels, not Fuel for the Fire

  • China's money and credit growth improved in December, but this isn't a stimulus surge.
  • The authorities are laying down the groundwork to bail out swathes of the economy.
  • We expect the Q4 GDP reading to be the weakest since the start of the pandemic.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Jan 2022 Bright in Patches, but a Largely Dismal End to China's 2021

  • Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
  • Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
  • Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Dec 2021 Further Tentative Signs of Easing Bottlenecks in Japanese Exports

Japanese exports jumped in November, amidst signs of reduced supply chain pressures.

Unfortunately, the outlook for December is dimming, thanks in part to Chinese Covid policy.

Omicron is set to renew supply disruptions, just as they were easing, but it will also weaken demand.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Dec 2021 Infrastructure is Still En Route, but Other Headwinds are Forming

November's data are a mixed bag, but investment weakness, led by property, is the main concern.

Infrastructure should begin to offset property soon, but manufacturing faces its own challenges.

Omicron has entered China, and will intensify the cycle of zero-Covid lockdowns.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Dec 2021 Service Sector and SME Revivals are Boosting Japanese Growth

Japan's Tankan survey points to an improvement in Q4, particularly outside manufacturing.

Success in containing Covid, for now, has boosted the services sector, and smaller firms are reviving.

Inflationary pressures continued to build in Q4, but will not disturb BoJ policy yet.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

  • Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
  • Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
  • The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Nov 2021 Japan's Recovery Can't Afford Policy Mistakes

  • Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
  • A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
  • Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.

Craig BothamChina+

China+ Datanote: GDP, Japan, Q3

In one line: a messy quarter hit by multiple transitory shocks 

Craig BothamChina+

9 Nov 2021 A Sprint to the Finish may Leave China's Trade Fading Next Year

  • China's latest trade data were better than expected, setting up a potential upside surprise for Q4.
  • Energy imports will weigh more heavily on the trade balance, but external demand appears robust.
  • Next year will be more challenging, given base effects and softening demand.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Oct 2021 It Never Rains but It Pours for the Chinese Property Sector

  • A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
  • The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
  • Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Oct 2021 China's Policymakers Unmoved, Despite a Sharper Slowdown

  • Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
  • Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
  • Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

  • A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
  • Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
  • The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Oct 2021 A Hawkish Hold, but Future Hikes Likely to be Interrupted

  • The BoK struck a hawkish note despite holding rates, strongly suggesting a November hike.
  • Household debt remains the focus of policy, but there's a risk of complacency over growth.
  • China is still deteriorating, and data over the next fortnight will be just a taste.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Sept 2021 September Storms Cloud China's Growth Outlook

  • The energy crisis and Evergrande's distress prompt downgrades to our growth outlook.
  • Energy shortages will likely have the bigger short term impact, with Evergrande a chronic problem.
  • Uncertainty over the fate of the property sector leaves risks skewed to the downside.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2021 Energy Crisis will have a Greater Short-Term Impact than Evergrande

  • Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
  • Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
  • Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2021 A Property Sector Microcosm: The Economics of Evergrande

  • Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
  • China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
  • The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover

Craig BothamChina+

20 Sept 2021 Will the PBoC Waver from its Early Normalisation Path?

Fear of Evergrande contagion is dragging the PBoC into liquidity injections; an RRR cut is in the offing...

... But weak GDP growth will also force the Bank to drive market rates lower through OMOs.

The new green plank of BoJ policy struggles on the implementation details.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 Sept 2021 Still Waiting for Reassurance from the Money and Credit Numbers

  • M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least.
  • M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the PBoC to flinch.
  • Households remained nervous last month, looking at the trivial uptick in borrowing activity.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence