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Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email firstname.lastname@example.org, or contact your account rep
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Japanese CPI inflation was unchanged in May, andremains above the 2% target.
We think inflation will remain above target for the rest of the year, thanks to recent yen weakness.
But the BoJ will still see no reason to hike, with cost-push inflation viewed as “unsustainable”.
Inflation is stabilising in Japan, after its April surge, and we do not expect much movement from here.
Yen weakness has partially reversed, thanks to U.S. data, easing the pressure on the BoJ.
Chinese industry is under pressure, particularly the private sector, and policy offers only limited support.
Japan’s CPI inflation is finally back above its 2% target, but this won’t prompt a change from the BoJ.
The surge has been driven almost entirely by base effects, rather than any pick-up in demand.
Falling rates in China, aimed at propping up the property sector, will have little effect.
Japan’s Tokyo CPI broke through its 2% target, as widely expected, but policy won’t change.
Inflation driven by base effects, and food prices, is seen as unsustainable by the BoJ.
Imported inflation will be viewed in a similar light, so no change in the policy rate is on the horizon.
China's trade surplus enjoyed a final lift in March, as import demand collapsed, and exports rose...
...But look through the seasonal distortions, and exports were weaker than they appeared.
Beijing has promised to offset some of the pain from zero-Covid, but stimulus looks light, to us.
China's inflation outlook remains very different to most major economies, despite the energy shock.
The PBoC is able to ease further, with inflation far from its target, but is proving reluctant.
Private sector demand for credit still looks soft, and the PBoC’s power is limited, absent fiscal action.
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