Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

interest rate

16 Sept 2021 August Retail Sales were Grim, and the Scope for a Bounce is Narrow

  • China's activity data for August disappointed across-the-board, but grim retail sales stood out...
  • ...A September bounce is looking unlikely, due to the Fujian wave; the longer-term story is still bleak.
  • Industrial output and fixed investment were less bad last month, thanks partly to the infrastructure drive.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 Sept 2021 Stand by for Some Weak August Activity Figures

  • Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
  • FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
  • We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Sept 2021 August Likely was the Peak in PPI Inflation, Expect Disinflation in 2022

  • PPI inflation surprised to the upside in August, reflecting stubborn commodity pressures...
  • ...The Ningbo-Zhoushan port closure likely was a factor, too, but disinflation is now on the horizon
  • Pork price deflation continues to pull down CPI inflation, but underlying pressures are still building.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

27 Aug 2021 The BoK Takes a Calculated Risk, to Re-focus on High Household Debt

  • The Monetary Policy Board kicked off normalisation yesterday with a 25-basis point hike, to 0.75%.
  • Korea still is deep in the Covid woods, especially as protection from prior infection is very low...
  • ...But rapid jabs give the BoK room to manoeuvre, and re-focus towards curbing financial imbalances.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

23 Aug 2021 Four Catalysts for Escape from China's Mid-Cycle Weakness

  • We see four changes in the next few months that will put equities on a firmer footing.
  • Risks to bond yields are to the upside, thanks to the coming slew of local government issuance
  • Japan's CPI re-basing puts the country back in deflation, but it's not the Boj's fault

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20.8.21

  • PBoC hanging tough.
  • Japan’s energy inflation remains lacking.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 Aug 2021 China is Having the "Mid-Cycle" from Hell

The zero-tolerance approach to Covid has been a part of China's success story...

... It's now a hurdle for valuations to climb; a shift toward Covid management is needed...

... That could catalyse a behavioural transition from savings normalisation to active wealth run-down.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 Aug 2021 PBoC Easing Remains Unlikely, Despite July's Soft Money Data

Both M1 and M2 growth missed expectations in July, but the former arguably is due a turnaround.

Slowing household demand for credit isn't exactly concerning, as they are still sitting on piles of cash.

Japanese machine tool orders remain solid, indicating that the recovery in global IP is on track.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Aug 2021 PBoC Tightening Would be Imminent if Not for the Delta Variant

PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.

Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.

Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

29 July 2021 The PMIs Should Offer Some Signs of Stabilisation this Month

Q2 CPI inflation exceeded the MPC's one-quarter ahead forecast by the most for 13 years...

...But only two members have implied they will vote to end QE; pushback from the doves has been strong.

Inflation expectations have remained well-anchored; Team Transitory probably is right.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

26 July 2021 Savings Data Suggest Households are Loosening the Purse Strings

Our analysis reveals that GDP growth in the first half may have been significantly stronger than billed.

In particular, the household savings rate dropped sharply, back to pre-pandemic trends.

Households now need to run down wealth, if the recovery is to continue.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

23 July 2021 PBoC RRR Cut versus Fed Taper is a False Dichotomy

From all the PBoC's vast toolbox, the most important thing right now is the clues to be gleaned over intentions on rates from open market operations.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 20.7.21

PBoC goes back to regular programming.

Japan exits outright deflation, thanks largely to food prices.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 July 2021 Supporting Green Finance Could Become a Major BoJ Policy Plank

The BoJ's policy meeting on Friday is set to provide an outline of the fund-provisioning scheme, announced at its June meeting, to support green finance.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

22 June 2021 The PBoC will Continue with its Balancing Act, For Now

The PBoC continues to hold off on tightening, as it waits for something closer to herd immunity, and to see how the economy responds to "freedom".

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 18.6.21

BoJ balance sheet to keep expanding till March 2022.

All quiet for Japan’s CPI beyond energy.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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