Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

infrastructure spending

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 01.12.21 - Stabilisation in China, and a boost to Korean exports

Disparity with Chinese official data driven by falling new orders and employment, and further supply delays

Japanese capex data hints at little revision to GDP

Resumption of Chinese demand lifts Korean trade, but it’s also flattered by lumpy ship exports

Craig BothamChina+

25 Nov 2021 Infrastructure Spending is Coming, but Less than you Hope

  • Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
  • Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
  • ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

  • Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
  • Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
  • The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Nov 2021 Japan's Recovery Can't Afford Policy Mistakes

  • Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
  • A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
  • Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Nov 2021 Halloween is Over, but China will Provide a Late October Scare

  • China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
  • We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
  • Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Oct 2021 A Brief Interlude for Chinese Industrial Profits

  • Profits surprisingly accelerated in September, de- spite widespread disruption...
  • ...Digging deeper, profits look relatively anaemic, with the improvement driven by transitory factors.
  • Margin squeezes are persisting, and profits should come back to reality in October.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Oct 2021 It Never Rains but It Pours for the Chinese Property Sector

  • A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
  • The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
  • Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Sept 2021 September Storms Cloud China's Growth Outlook

  • The energy crisis and Evergrande's distress prompt downgrades to our growth outlook.
  • Energy shortages will likely have the bigger short term impact, with Evergrande a chronic problem.
  • Uncertainty over the fate of the property sector leaves risks skewed to the downside.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2021 A Property Sector Microcosm: The Economics of Evergrande

  • Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
  • China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
  • The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover

Craig BothamChina+

16 Sept 2021 August Retail Sales were Grim, and the Scope for a Bounce is Narrow

  • China's activity data for August disappointed across-the-board, but grim retail sales stood out...
  • ...A September bounce is looking unlikely, due to the Fujian wave; the longer-term story is still bleak.
  • Industrial output and fixed investment were less bad last month, thanks partly to the infrastructure drive.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 1.9.21

  • Export-sensitive Caixin PMI hit by Delta
  • Korean exports suggest front-loading
  • Korea’s PMI will avoid the depths of the Caixin
  • Japan’s business capex means no Q2 GDP revisions

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

23 Aug 2021 Four Catalysts for Escape from China's Mid-Cycle Weakness

  • We see four changes in the next few months that will put equities on a firmer footing.
  • Risks to bond yields are to the upside, thanks to the coming slew of local government issuance
  • Japan's CPI re-basing puts the country back in deflation, but it's not the Boj's fault

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.

The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.

The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 July 2021 GDP Growth Probably was at its Lowest Point this Year in Q2

We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

5 July 2021 We Still Aren't too Worried About China's Credit/Money Slowdown

China analysts have a not-so-secret weapon; credit and money trends are very good leading indicators
of GDP growth. At the moment, the signal from
those indicators is worrying.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

29 June 2021 Don't Write off a Consumer Spending Pop Just Yet

The potential for a consumption-led rebound in Chinese GDP growth is being underestimated, and we still expect a pop of faster growth.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

28 June 2021 June PMIs will Provide Further Evidence of a Mid-Year Slowdown

China's official manufacturing PMI looks exposed in the context of the recent softening of regional trade flows. Korean 20-day export growth for June slowed to 29.4% year-over-year, from 53.0% in May.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

17 June 2021 China Drops the Baton in the Switch From Manufacturing to Services

China's activity data were disappointing for May, raising serious questions about a limbo period in the middle of the year. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

15 June 2021 Local Government Spending is Reviving... Begrudgingly

We expect China's May activity data on Wednesday to lead to talk of slowdown, with the year- over-year growth rates for industrial production, retail sales, and the year-to-date, year-over-year rate for fixed assets all slowing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence