Pantheon Macroeconomics

Best viewed on a device with a bigger screen...

China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

industrial production growth

7 Dec 2021 Under Duress, and Trying to Sound Upbeat, the PBoC Acts

  • Evergrande, and a nudge from upstairs, seem to have forced the PBoC's hand.
  • A 50 bps cut to the RRR frees up funds to deal with the clean-up operation, not supercharge growth.
  • More cuts will be needed, with growth likely to remain soft in Q1 of next year.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Dec 2021 Bottlenecks Continued to Ease on the Eve of Omicron

  • Korean exports beat expectations in November, though we think the data overstate performance.
  • Supply chains are still improving at the margins, even if U.S. ports remain congested.
  • The Omicron variant is a risk to this recovery, but will not derail it entirely.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Dec 2021 Stability and the Easing of Stagflation Risk in China

  • Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
  • The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
  • Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.

Craig BothamChina+

30 Nov 2021 Coal Boosts Profits as Omicron Lurks in the Wings

  • October was another strong month for Chinese industrial profits, propelled by coal...
  • ...But coal prices have been slashed, and energy rates hiked, so we expect deceleration from here.
  • China is doubling down on zero-Covid in the face of Omicron, which will prove costly.

Craig BothamChina+

26 Nov 2021 An Expected Hike from the BoK, and Now a Long Pause

  • The Bank of Korea hiked as expected, taking the policy rate to 1.00%, from 0.75%.

    Further hikes were made conditional on a plethora of factors, providing plenty of wriggle room.

    We expect a pause until mid-2022, as Covid cases spike, and with an election looming in March.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Nov 2021 Infrastructure Spending is Coming, but Less than you Hope

  • Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
  • Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
  • ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.

Craig BothamChina+

23 Nov 2021 Bottlenecks and Chinese Policy to Ease, but Keep Calm

  • Korean trade data show further signs of an easing in congested supply chains.
  • Chinese policymakers turn more dovish, but no real relief for the property sector.
  • Renminbi strength starts to bother the PBoC, but "two-way volatility" is more likely than devaluation.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

  • Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
  • Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
  • The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Nov 2021 Regional Trade Data Highlight Persistence of Supply Pressures

  • Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
  • ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
  • We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Nov 2021 Japan's Recovery Can't Afford Policy Mistakes

  • Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
  • A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
  • Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Nov 2021 Chinese Industry Avoids Calamity, but Q4 Looks Set for Weakness

  • China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
  • Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
  • The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

CHINA+ DATA WRAP 15.11.21

Fixed asset investment pulled down by property

Industry’s turnaround is built on a narrow base, but it should broaden

Retail sales are likely enjoying a false dawn

Craig BothamChina+

15 Nov 2021 Logistical Pressures Build as Covid Reaches Another Port City

  • China's latest Covid outbreak now risks locking down another port...
  • ...and logistics networks are already strained, thanks to assorted energy shortages.
  • The Sixth Plenum elevated Xi, but was light on policy announcements.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Nov 2021 Halloween is Over, but China will Provide a Late October Scare

  • China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
  • We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
  • Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Nov 2021 Chinese Inflation Spikes, but Policymakers Won't Panic

  • Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
  • Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
  • We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.

Craig BothamChina+

9 Nov 2021 A Sprint to the Finish may Leave China's Trade Fading Next Year

  • China's latest trade data were better than expected, setting up a potential upside surprise for Q4.
  • Energy imports will weigh more heavily on the trade balance, but external demand appears robust.
  • Next year will be more challenging, given base effects and softening demand.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Nov 2021 China's Property Dominoes Keep Falling

  • The turmoil now engulfing Kaisa highlights how opaque property risks remain...
  • ...Hidden liabilities helped the firm pass the risk tests set by Beijing...
  • ...And likely will imperil other property developers, whom the receding tide will gradually expose.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Nov 2021 China Experiences the Wrong Sort of Green Growth

  • Chinese vegetable prices have jumped recently, thanks to bad weather and supply disruptions.
  • Food is a substantial part of the Chinese CPI bas- ket, and an inflation spike is on its way.
  • A mix of policy and base effects should mean, how- ever, that the spike will be short-lived.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Nov 2021 China's Output Continues to Crater, Driven by the Energy Crunch

  • The worsening energy crunch weighed heavily on Chinese manufacturing in October.
  • Inflationary pressures are building, thanks to energy price liberalisation.
  • Shortages of natural gas and fuel remain a risk to production and supply chains.

Craig BothamChina+

  Publication Filters

Change View: List   Small Grid  

Filter by Keyword

Filter by Publication Type

Filter by Author

Global Publications Only

Filter by Date
(6 months only; older publications available on request)

  Quick Tag Filters

Consistently Right

Access Key Enabled Navigation

Keywords for: China+ Documents

China+ Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent macro research independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence