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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

households

18 Jan 2022 A Better Year for Consumption, but Now Normal Service Resumes

  • Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
  • The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
  • ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Nov 2021 An Attention-Grabbing Start to Kishida's New Term

  • Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
  • Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
  • The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Nov 2021 Japan's Recovery Can't Afford Policy Mistakes

  • Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
  • A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
  • Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Nov 2021 China Experiences the Wrong Sort of Green Growth

  • Chinese vegetable prices have jumped recently, thanks to bad weather and supply disruptions.
  • Food is a substantial part of the Chinese CPI bas- ket, and an inflation spike is on its way.
  • A mix of policy and base effects should mean, how- ever, that the spike will be short-lived.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Oct 2021 It Never Rains but It Pours for the Chinese Property Sector

  • A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
  • The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
  • Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Oct 2021 Policy Intervention Curbs China's Coal Prices, but Risks Remain

  • The Chinese authorities continue to battle the underlying causes of the energy crisis.
  • A combination of tariff hikes and coal price reductions has brought an end to shortages, for now...
  • ... but heading into the winter, heating needs will jump, renewing pressure on generators.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Oct 2021 The Evergrande Fiasco and Energy Prices Will Spoil the Recovery

  • A weak third quarter GDP print for China is a certainty, with the economy facing multiple headwinds.
  • Early data hint at the damage done, but September is just the start.
  • The real pain from the dual crises will be felt in Q4 and beyond.

Craig BothamChina+

29 Sept 2021 September Storms Cloud China's Growth Outlook

  • The energy crisis and Evergrande's distress prompt downgrades to our growth outlook.
  • Energy shortages will likely have the bigger short term impact, with Evergrande a chronic problem.
  • Uncertainty over the fate of the property sector leaves risks skewed to the downside.

Craig BothamChina+

28 Sept 2021 Energy Crisis will have a Greater Short-Term Impact than Evergrande

  • Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
  • Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
  • Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.

Craig BothamChina+

27 Sept 2021 A Property Sector Microcosm: The Economics of Evergrande

  • Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
  • China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
  • The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover

Craig BothamChina+

16 Sept 2021 August Retail Sales were Grim, and the Scope for a Bounce is Narrow

  • China's activity data for August disappointed across-the-board, but grim retail sales stood out...
  • ...A September bounce is looking unlikely, due to the Fujian wave; the longer-term story is still bleak.
  • Industrial output and fixed investment were less bad last month, thanks partly to the infrastructure drive.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 Sept 2021 Still Waiting for Reassurance from the Money and Credit Numbers

  • M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least.
  • M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the PBoC to flinch.
  • Households remained nervous last month, looking at the trivial uptick in borrowing activity.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 Sept 2021 Stand by for Some Weak August Activity Figures

  • Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
  • FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
  • We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Sept 2021 China's Equity Rebound will Lack Fundamental Drivers

  • Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
  • ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
  • ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

1 Sept 2021 The Services Collapse in August Highlights the Cost of "Zero Covid"

  • The Delta wave was smaller than the last outbreak, yet it caused more damage to the services sector...
  • ...Underscoring China's reluctance to ditch its Zero Covid stance; construction was the only bright spot.
  • The manufacturing PMI slipped only modestly in August, but forward-looking indicators stayed grim.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

17 Aug 2021 The Infrastructure Boost may not Come in Time to Salvage Q3

Industrial production growth slowed sharply in July; no signs yet of infrastructure picking up the slack.

Delta is adding to the recent misery in retail sales; a Q3 GDP growth downgrade is now on the cards.

Japan's economy stabilised in the second quarter despite the rolling Covid hit and soft lockdowns.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 Aug 2021 PBoC Easing Remains Unlikely, Despite July's Soft Money Data

Both M1 and M2 growth missed expectations in July, but the former arguably is due a turnaround.

Slowing household demand for credit isn't exactly concerning, as they are still sitting on piles of cash.

Japanese machine tool orders remain solid, indicating that the recovery in global IP is on track.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

26 July 2021 Savings Data Suggest Households are Loosening the Purse Strings

Our analysis reveals that GDP growth in the first half may have been significantly stronger than billed.

In particular, the household savings rate dropped sharply, back to pre-pandemic trends.

Households now need to run down wealth, if the recovery is to continue.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

5 July 2021 We Still Aren't too Worried About China's Credit/Money Slowdown

China analysts have a not-so-secret weapon; credit and money trends are very good leading indicators
of GDP growth. At the moment, the signal from
those indicators is worrying.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

29 June 2021 Don't Write off a Consumer Spending Pop Just Yet

The potential for a consumption-led rebound in Chinese GDP growth is being underestimated, and we still expect a pop of faster growth.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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