Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

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finance Oil

10 Sept 2021 August Likely was the Peak in PPI Inflation, Expect Disinflation in 2022

  • PPI inflation surprised to the upside in August, reflecting stubborn commodity pressures...
  • ...The Ningbo-Zhoushan port closure likely was a factor, too, but disinflation is now on the horizon
  • Pork price deflation continues to pull down CPI inflation, but underlying pressures are still building.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Aug 2021 The Trade Surplus is Likely to Remain Under Pressure

July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.

PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.

M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 July 2021 CPI Inflation Could Still Edge Higher in June, Despite Mid-Year Weakness

Energy inflation is not straightforward to forecast in China, thanks to the lack of clarity over the CPI weights.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 June 2021 The PBoC Can't Ignore Sky-High PPI Inflation

The authorities are growing increasingly uncomfortable with the upward march of commodity prices.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 June 2021 China is Exposed to a Double Whammy Against Exports

It's now widely appreciated that Chinese exports are exposed, as the global economy switches lanes to services, from manufacturing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

4 June 2021 Did the U.S. Stimulus Give the Trade Cycle a Final Boost in May

Chinese exports have recovered much more quickly than elsewhere, thanks in large part to the still strong command element of the economy. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

24 May 2021 China's Reopening Story Remains in Tact Despite Slow M1 Growth

Normally, when M1 growth slows, and credit conditions tighten, that's it for the Chinese cycle. We think the peak of M1 growth, for now, was in January, and credit conditions appeared to tighten in the last few months.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

5 May 2021 The Trade Surplus Likely Began a Downshift in April

One of the big questions facing the global economy is when the trade cycle will falter.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

26 Apr 2021 BoJ Forecasts are Due an Upgrade; Lowballing is the Order of the Day

The BoJ likely will leave policy unchanged at its meeting on Tuesday next week, following the policy review in March.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 Apr 2021 China's PPI Could Peak Above 10% in the next Few Months

Chinese officials are starting to be worried about commodity price inflation. The upswing is now feeding through to PPI trends, with further to go.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

9 Apr 2021 China Facilitated the Global Goods Recovery, but that is Now Complete

China's unadjusted trade surplus could drop sharply in March, to about $31.5B, from an average of $51.5B in January/February.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 Apr 2021 When will China's Services Inflation Begin to Gain Traction

The big question facing Chinese CPI inflation is when services inflation will finally begin to pick up.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

11 Mar 2021 Disappointing M1 numbers, but Still a 2021 GDP growth Uptrend

We've been waiting with bated breath to see how far China's M1 acceleration would go.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 Mar 2021 2021 Economic Targets are Mainly Pretty Dovish for a Kettle of Hawks

The focus in commentary so far, following the Government Work Report—GWR—has been on the GDP growth target, which was set at "above 6%", after no target was set last year due to uncertainty.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

1 Mar 2021 Chinese Liquidity has a lot to Say About Where Oil Prices will End up

China's role in oil markets has taken on new importance in the last half decade. The growth in the amount of RMB sitting in Chinese corporations bank accounts has become a useful leading indicator of oil price developments.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

26 Feb 2021 BoK Leaves Itself Space for a GDP Upgrade... and Normalisation

The BoK left the Base Rate unchanged at 0.50% for the intermeeting period, by a unanimous decision.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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