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July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.
PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.
M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.
Energy inflation is not straightforward to forecast in China, thanks to the lack of clarity over the CPI weights.
The Bank made a surprise announcement at its meeting last week.
The authorities are growing increasingly uncomfortable with the upward march of commodity prices.
It's now widely appreciated that Chinese exports are exposed, as the global economy switches lanes to services, from manufacturing.
Chinese exports have recovered much more quickly than elsewhere, thanks in large part to the still strong command element of the economy.
Normally, when M1 growth slows, and credit conditions tighten, that's it for the Chinese cycle. We think the peak of M1 growth, for now, was in January, and credit conditions appeared to tighten in the last few months.
One of the big questions facing the global economy is when the trade cycle will falter.
The BoJ likely will leave policy unchanged at its meeting on Tuesday next week, following the policy review in March.
Chinese officials are starting to be worried about commodity price inflation. The upswing is now feeding through to PPI trends, with further to go.
China's unadjusted trade surplus could drop sharply in March, to about $31.5B, from an average of $51.5B in January/February.
The big question facing Chinese CPI inflation is when services inflation will finally begin to pick up.
We've been waiting with bated breath to see how far China's M1 acceleration would go.
The focus in commentary so far, following the Government Work Report—GWR—has been on the GDP growth target, which was set at "above 6%", after no target was set last year due to uncertainty.
China's role in oil markets has taken on new importance in the last half decade. The growth in the amount of RMB sitting in Chinese corporations bank accounts has become a useful leading indicator of oil price developments.
The BoK left the Base Rate unchanged at 0.50% for the intermeeting period, by a unanimous decision.
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