Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email email@example.com, or contact your account rep
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- Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
- The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
- Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.
- Growth slowed in September, as energy shortages and property market weakness hit the economy.
- Industrial production, investment and GDP all reflected elements of the twin crises.
- Policymakers remain sanguine, even so, and still have some wriggle-room on their growth target.
- Expectations for a Chinese export slowdown in September were confounded...
- ...But this was due chiefly to one-off factors, and imports showed the impact of China's crises.
- Exports will falter next month, and supply chains will feel the added pressure.
- China's energy rationing is already hurting domes- tic economic activity...
- ...But it may represent opportunities for exporters of energy intensive goods.
- Supply chain issues are intensifying, and will likely be exacerbated by problems in China.
- Evergrande stumbles on, but more interlinkages with other sectors are being uncovered.
- China's property sector as a whole is really the Evergrande situation writ large.
- The anticipated economic fallout will not be isolated to China, expect significant regional spillover
- M1 is still waiting for a boost from local government bonds; issuance is going strong, at least.
- M2 growth continued to slip in August, though it'll take more than this for the PBoC to flinch.
- Households remained nervous last month, looking at the trivial uptick in borrowing activity.
- Industrial production growth likely slowed sharply in August, despite strong trade figures.
- FAI growth should soon rebound, but likely not in time for the August data.
- We owe M1 a partial apology; our forecast is now coming back into line with its signal.
- Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
- ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
- ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.
- The Delta wave was smaller than the last outbreak, yet it caused more damage to the services sector...
- ...Underscoring China's reluctance to ditch its Zero Covid stance; construction was the only bright spot.
- The manufacturing PMI slipped only modestly in August, but forward-looking indicators stayed grim.
- Data in the next few months will force the authori- ties to reconsider zero Covid tolerance...
- ... But translating that into an official shift in the policy stance could take time.
- In the meantime, the August and September PMIs looked exposed.
- The Monetary Policy Board kicked off normalisation yesterday with a 25-basis point hike, to 0.75%.
- Korea still is deep in the Covid woods, especially as protection from prior infection is very low...
- ...But rapid jabs give the BoK room to manoeuvre, and re-focus towards curbing financial imbalances.
China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.
The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.
The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.
We've expressed misgivings for some time about the sustainability of GDP quarterly growth into Q2.
The official manufacturing PMI indicates that bottlenecks remain a problem.
China's official manufacturing PMI looks exposed in the context of the recent softening of regional trade flows. Korean 20-day export growth for June slowed to 29.4% year-over-year, from 53.0% in May.
China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed at 51.0 in May, after April’s 51.1, with the index remaining oblivious to U.S. stimulus efforts and in recent months.
Overall, data available so far for May point to a modest improvement in Chinese manufacturing.
We have to admit that the speed of China's recovery outpaced our initial expectations last year.
We continue to look for signs on whether the manufacturing cycle will be given a further lease of life by the U.S. stimulus.