China+ Publications
Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
chinese
- Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
- The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
- ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.
Craig BothamChina+
- China posted a new record-high trade surplus in December, boosting the renminbi.
- Behind the headline, however, lurks a troubling weakness of imports and domestic demand.
- Korea's central bank hiked rates to 1.25%, and signalled more to come this year.
Craig BothamChina+
- China's CPI inflation surge was short-lived, and is set to be followed by a sharp reversal, soon.
- Producer prices are also rolling over rapidly, relieving inflation pressure at home and abroad.
- Omicron is now spreading in China, which will hit activity and inflation, but disrupt supply chains.
Craig BothamChina+
- Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
- Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
- Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.
Craig BothamChina+
- Slower Korean export growth in December rounds off a quarter of deceleration.
- Supply constraints remain an issue, but demand is also fading from the post-lockdown boom.
- Rising Covid cases globally have added to head- winds, and risk a bleak midwinter.
Craig BothamChina+
- Early Chinese data point to a stabilisation—at low levels— of economic activity.
- Infrastructure investment likely rose in November, partially offsetting the property slowdown.
- Prepare for a harsher crackdown on the private sec- tor in 2022, and more infrastructure spending.
Craig BothamChina+
- Chinese consumer price inflation accelerated in November, driven by food prices...
- ...but base effects will soon weigh on the index, such that November marks the near-term peak.
- Producer price inflation has already begun to rollover, as energy prices start to fall.
Craig BothamChina+
- Korean exports beat expectations in November, though we think the data overstate performance.
- Supply chains are still improving at the margins, even if U.S. ports remain congested.
- The Omicron variant is a risk to this recovery, but will not derail it entirely.
Craig BothamChina+
- Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
- The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
- Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.
Craig BothamChina+
- October was another strong month for Chinese industrial profits, propelled by coal...
- ...But coal prices have been slashed, and energy rates hiked, so we expect deceleration from here.
- China is doubling down on zero-Covid in the face of Omicron, which will prove costly.
Craig BothamChina+
- Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
- Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
- ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
- ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
- We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.
Craig BothamChina+
- Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
- A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
- Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.
Craig BothamChina+
- China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
- Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
- The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.
Craig BothamChina+
- China's latest Covid outbreak now risks locking down another port...
- ...and logistics networks are already strained, thanks to assorted energy shortages.
- The Sixth Plenum elevated Xi, but was light on policy announcements.
Craig BothamChina+
- China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
- We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
- Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.
Craig BothamChina+
- Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
- Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
- We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.
Craig BothamChina+
- China's latest trade data were better than expected, setting up a potential upside surprise for Q4.
- Energy imports will weigh more heavily on the trade balance, but external demand appears robust.
- Next year will be more challenging, given base effects and softening demand.
Craig BothamChina+
- The turmoil now engulfing Kaisa highlights how opaque property risks remain...
- ...Hidden liabilities helped the firm pass the risk tests set by Beijing...
- ...And likely will imperil other property developers, whom the receding tide will gradually expose.
Craig BothamChina+
- Chinese vegetable prices have jumped recently, thanks to bad weather and supply disruptions.
- Food is a substantial part of the Chinese CPI bas- ket, and an inflation spike is on its way.
- A mix of policy and base effects should mean, how- ever, that the spike will be short-lived.
Craig BothamChina+
