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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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18 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Japan Faces a Growing Trade Deficit, Despite the Weaker Yen

Japan’s trade deficit widened again in July, thanks to a surging import bill.

Energy costs are a big part of the problem, but recent yen weakness is more curse than blessing.

Exports are yet to benefit from the currency’s fall, and key imports are insensitive to price changes.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Aug 2022 China+ Monitor Supply-Side Stresses are Fading, Bringing Hope of Disinflation

Supply chains are recovering, with delivery times and shipping costs improving in East Asia.

Lower raw material costs are reducing cost-push  inflation, and should feed through to output prices.

The main supply-side risks now are political, as China retaliates for Speaker Pelosi’s Taiwanese trip.

Craig BothamChina+

13 June 2022 Price and Money Data Show Demand is Still Weak in China

Inflation data hint at weak domestic demand, but also point to disinflationary pressures from China.

Food prices are the main driver of CPI inflation, but the PBoC target will only briefly be breached.

Bank lending has turned a corner, but it doesn’t look like the private sector is benefitting.

Craig BothamChina+

8 June 2022 The PBoC Remains Cautious, Despite the Push for Growth

China’s FX reserves rose slightly in May, snapping a run of declines, despite currency weakness.

We think the recovery was driven chiefly by valuation effects, given reports of continued outflows.

The PBoC would feel more comfortable easing if China really were experiencing net inflows.

Craig BothamChina+

6 June 2022 China will Export Disinflation, not Inflation, despite New Stimulus

Fears that China will export inflation as a result of policy stimulus look misplaced, to us. 

Stimulus has been predominantly focused on supply-side measures, and should reduce inflation. 

Korean exports have improved, but it is too soon to call a turning point in global trade. 

Craig BothamChina+

10 May Trade Disruption Builds for China, as Restrictions Tighten

Zero-Covid caught up with Chinese exports in April, as inventories were exhausted...

...But demand played a role too, with higher energy prices dragging down trade with Japan and Europe.

The fundamental backdrop for the renminbi is deteriorating, highlighted by plunging FX reserves.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Apr 2022 The BoJ will Remain Indifferent as Inflation Approaches Its Target

Japanese inflation is still rising, and is all but guaranteed to break through its target in April...

...But the BoJ has already indicated it has no intention of changing tack; rates won't rise this year.

Policymakers are flirting with the idea of currency intervention, but Kuroda won't take the lead.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Apr 2022 The PBoC Buckles Up for the Renminbi's Wild Ride

China's currency is finally succumbing to pressure from multiple fronts, and has further to fall.

The renminbi poses a key constraint to PBoC policy, which Beijing will ultimately override.

April export data from Korea show that China's bat- tle with Covid will weigh heavily on global trade.

Craig BothamChina+

14 Apr 2022 Zero-Covid Weighs on Trade, and Obliterates Domestic Demand

China's trade surplus enjoyed a final lift in March, as import demand collapsed, and exports rose...

...But look through the seasonal distortions, and exports were weaker than they appeared.

Beijing has promised to offset some of the pain from zero-Covid, but stimulus looks light, to us.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Apr 2022 China's FX Reserves Data Herald An Inflection Point for the Renminbi

China's FX reserves fell again in March, amidst reports of large portfolio outflows, thanks to Putin.

One by one, the key supports for the renminbi are being chipped away, and Q2 will be turbulent...

...but H2 will see a downward trend consolidate, as multiple headwinds force the RMB to submit.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Apr 2022 Whether China Sneezes, or Locks Down, Asia Catches a Cold

  • China's lockdowns and other restrictions weighed on regional activity in March, particularly exports.
  • Factory closures in China have tightened some bottlenecks, but others may have loosened.
  • The war in Ukraine has added to cost pressures, and worse is to come on both fronts.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Mar 2022 Japanese PMIs Add to Evidence of a Slowdown in Global Trade

  • We think Japan's flash manufacturing PMI was mostly bad news, despite a bounce in the headline.
  • Forward-looking components turned south, and we expect the final print, and next month's, to be softer.
  • A drop in new export orders is another signal that global trade is struggling amid renewed shocks.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Feb 2022 A Winter Chill in East Asia in Early February, but a Thaw is Coming

  • Korean exports had a slow start to February, chiefly because of holidays in Korea and China.
  • Japanese manufacturing similarly looks soft at the moment, but should recover almost fully in March.
  • Little sign of supply chain improvements so far, but a reopening is underway in China.

Craig BothamChina+

18 Feb 2022 China Weighs on Japanese Exports, but Weakness is Overstated

  • Japanese export growth slowed unexpectedly in January, but it's not as bad as it looks...
  • ..factory closures in China, thanks to holidays, pollution, and Covid, explain much of the weakness.
  • We remain positive on the global demand backdrop for exports, but supply congestion is rising.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Feb 2022 Pigs Might Fly, but they Bring Lower Inflation in their Wake

  • Chinese inflation continued its decline in January, thanks to base effects and weak demand.
  • The main constraint on PBoC action is worries over financial stability, not inflation.
  • China should export disinflation in 2022, a soothing balm for policymakers outside China.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Feb 2022 Japan Returns to Growth, but the Bumpy Ride isn't Over

  • Japanese GDP growth returned to positive territory in Q4, thanks to a rebound in consumption.
  • Consumption will be under pressure in Q1, thanks to Omicron, but investment should recover.
  • Chinese stimulus remains very modest, illustrated by a net withdrawal of liquidity this month.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Feb 2022 The State Sector Doubles Down as Risk Appetite Dwindles

  • Record weakness in Chinese M1 growth is only partly attributable to seasonal and base effects...
  • ...Weaker risk appetite, and softer economic activity, underlie the drop in liquid deposits.
  • Credit growth continued to become more heavily dominated by the state in January.

Craig BothamChina+

10 Feb 2022 Regional Manufacturing Faces a Drag from China

  • Regional manufacturing PMIs have diverged in recent months, thanks to Chinese factory closures.
  • Japan and Korea likely will converge towards China, but should be cushioned by external demand.
  • China's employment situation is getting worse, but policymakers are staying the course, for now.

Craig BothamChina+

7 Feb 2022 China's Battle with Omicron is Imposing Real Economic Costs

  • China is struggling to contain Covid, despite more aggressive suppression policies.
  • The cost of zero-Covid is rising with variant transmissibility, but a near-term pivot is unlikely.
  • We expect China to stick to its guns in 2023, but the trade-offs are shifting.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Feb 2022 Korean PMIs Lend Further Support to Strong External Demand Picture

  • Korea's manufacturing sector is having a happy new year, despite Omicron outbreaks.
  • The PMI survey provides encouraging signs for global demand, with new export orders bouncing...
  • ...It also points to an easing of some bottlenecks, with more to come as stockpiling fades.

Craig BothamChina+

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