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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

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18 Jan 2022 A Better Year for Consumption, but Now Normal Service Resumes

  • Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
  • The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
  • ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Jan 2022 Weaker Imports Suggest a Weaker Domestic Economy in China

  • China posted a new record-high trade surplus in December, boosting the renminbi.
  • Behind the headline, however, lurks a troubling weakness of imports and domestic demand.
  • Korea's central bank hiked rates to 1.25%, and signalled more to come this year.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Jan 2022 Chinese Inflation is Past the Peak, and Set to Plunge

  • China's CPI inflation surge was short-lived, and is set to be followed by a sharp reversal, soon.
  • Producer prices are also rolling over rapidly, relieving inflation pressure at home and abroad.
  • Omicron is now spreading in China, which will hit activity and inflation, but disrupt supply chains.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Jan 2022 Bright in Patches, but a Largely Dismal End to China's 2021

  • Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
  • Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
  • Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.

Craig BothamChina+

22 Dec 2021 Korean Export Data Signal a Soft End to the Year

  • Slower Korean export growth in December rounds off a quarter of deceleration.
  • Supply constraints remain an issue, but demand is also fading from the post-lockdown boom.
  • Rising Covid cases globally have added to head- winds, and risk a bleak midwinter.

Craig BothamChina+

13 Dec 2021 Slow and Steady in November as Policymakers Double Down

  • Early Chinese data point to a stabilisation—at low levels— of economic activity.
  • Infrastructure investment likely rose in November, partially offsetting the property slowdown.
  • Prepare for a harsher crackdown on the private sec- tor in 2022, and more infrastructure spending.

Craig BothamChina+

10 Dec 2021 China Finds Seasonal Cheer in November Inflation

  • Chinese consumer price inflation accelerated in November, driven by food prices...
  • ...but base effects will soon weigh on the index, such that November marks the near-term peak.
  • Producer price inflation has already begun to rollover, as energy prices start to fall.

Craig BothamChina+

2 Dec 2021 Bottlenecks Continued to Ease on the Eve of Omicron

  • Korean exports beat expectations in November, though we think the data overstate performance.
  • Supply chains are still improving at the margins, even if U.S. ports remain congested.
  • The Omicron variant is a risk to this recovery, but will not derail it entirely.

Craig BothamChina+

1 Dec 2021 Stability and the Easing of Stagflation Risk in China

  • Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
  • The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
  • Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.

Craig BothamChina+

30 Nov 2021 Coal Boosts Profits as Omicron Lurks in the Wings

  • October was another strong month for Chinese industrial profits, propelled by coal...
  • ...But coal prices have been slashed, and energy rates hiked, so we expect deceleration from here.
  • China is doubling down on zero-Covid in the face of Omicron, which will prove costly.

Craig BothamChina+

25 Nov 2021 Infrastructure Spending is Coming, but Less than you Hope

  • Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
  • Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
  • ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.

Craig BothamChina+

19 Nov 2021 Regional Trade Data Highlight Persistence of Supply Pressures

  • Japan's October exports repeated the message of other regional trade data...
  • ...Supply chains remain snarled, and bottlenecks are still narrow, and tight.
  • We think November will prove to be a high-water mark, but tankers have a big turning circle.

Craig BothamChina+

17 Nov 2021 Japan's Recovery Can't Afford Policy Mistakes

  • Japanese growth fell sharply in Q3, as both consumption and capex declined.
  • A near-term rebound is on the cards, as temporary headwinds fade.
  • Beyond Q4, however, growth needs policy support merely to return to, let alone surpass, its trend.

Craig BothamChina+

16 Nov 2021 Chinese Industry Avoids Calamity, but Q4 Looks Set for Weakness

  • China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
  • Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
  • The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.

Craig BothamChina+

15 Nov 2021 Logistical Pressures Build as Covid Reaches Another Port City

  • China's latest Covid outbreak now risks locking down another port...
  • ...and logistics networks are already strained, thanks to assorted energy shortages.
  • The Sixth Plenum elevated Xi, but was light on policy announcements.

Craig BothamChina+

12 Nov 2021 Halloween is Over, but China will Provide a Late October Scare

  • China's economy likely slowed in October, as energy outages worsened and property stress spread.
  • We think recent excitement over property sector stimulus is misplaced.
  • Retail sales should do better than expected, but it won't last.

Craig BothamChina+

11 Nov 2021 Chinese Inflation Spikes, but Policymakers Won't Panic

  • Food and energy prices drove Chinese consumer price inflation sharply higher in October.
  • Partial energy liberalisation, coupled with soaring coal prices, led to record PPI inflation.
  • We think both spikes will be transitory, and will not necessitate a monetary policy response.

Craig BothamChina+

9 Nov 2021 A Sprint to the Finish may Leave China's Trade Fading Next Year

  • China's latest trade data were better than expected, setting up a potential upside surprise for Q4.
  • Energy imports will weigh more heavily on the trade balance, but external demand appears robust.
  • Next year will be more challenging, given base effects and softening demand.

Craig BothamChina+

8 Nov 2021 China's Property Dominoes Keep Falling

  • The turmoil now engulfing Kaisa highlights how opaque property risks remain...
  • ...Hidden liabilities helped the firm pass the risk tests set by Beijing...
  • ...And likely will imperil other property developers, whom the receding tide will gradually expose.

Craig BothamChina+

4 Nov 2021 China Experiences the Wrong Sort of Green Growth

  • Chinese vegetable prices have jumped recently, thanks to bad weather and supply disruptions.
  • Food is a substantial part of the Chinese CPI bas- ket, and an inflation spike is on its way.
  • A mix of policy and base effects should mean, how- ever, that the spike will be short-lived.

Craig BothamChina+

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