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- The biggest change from the latest BoJ meeting was a reappraisal of the inflation outlook.
- Risks to inflation are now seen as balanced, rather than to the downside, the first change since 2014.
- Still, there will be no change in key policy settings for the next two years, with the target not in sight.
- Growth was stronger than expected at the end of 2021, but still slowed...
- The outsized contribution from both consumption and exports will now fade...
- ...as the central government takes centre stage, supported from the wings by the PBoC.
- China's money and credit growth improved in December, but this isn't a stimulus surge.
- The authorities are laying down the groundwork to bail out swathes of the economy.
- We expect the Q4 GDP reading to be the weakest since the start of the pandemic.
- Despite some apparent good news, early data point to marginal weakening in growth in December.
- Policymakers are delivering more initiatives, but they will only cushion the fall.
- Bad news on Sinovac efficacy versus Omicron means reopening is pushed back a year, at least.
Japanese exports jumped in November, amidst signs of reduced supply chain pressures.
Unfortunately, the outlook for December is dimming, thanks in part to Chinese Covid policy.
Omicron is set to renew supply disruptions, just as they were easing, but it will also weaken demand.
November's data are a mixed bag, but investment weakness, led by property, is the main concern.
Infrastructure should begin to offset property soon, but manufacturing faces its own challenges.
Omicron has entered China, and will intensify the cycle of zero-Covid lockdowns.
Japan's Tankan survey points to an improvement in Q4, particularly outside manufacturing.
Success in containing Covid, for now, has boosted the services sector, and smaller firms are reviving.
Inflationary pressures continued to build in Q4, but will not disturb BoJ policy yet.
- Early Chinese data point to a stabilisation—at low levels— of economic activity.
- Infrastructure investment likely rose in November, partially offsetting the property slowdown.
- Prepare for a harsher crackdown on the private sec- tor in 2022, and more infrastructure spending.
- Chinese economic momentum stabilised in November, thanks to policy action.
- The end of the energy crisis has boosted output, and eased some bottlenecks.
- Infrastructure support looks to be arriving, propping up construction as property struggles.
- Policymakers are low on options to support economic growth amidst multiple headwinds.
- Infrastructure investment is the surest way to ensure money is actually spent...
- ...But local governments may still have difficulties spending it, given a lack of viable projects.
- Japan's latest fiscal stimulus package is significant, but lacks finesse.
- Consumption does need support, but this is the wrong way to go about it.
- The latest inflation data show the BoJ can focus on supporting fiscal policy, for now.
- China's October activity data were better than ex- pected, but chiefly reflecting a low bar.
- Industrial production growth staved off collapse, but is still near multi-decade lows.
- The property sector is a chronic, and building, headwind for the economy.
- No change in policy settings from the BoJ, but a decided turn for the worse in the growth outlook.
- The coronavirus, coupled with supply-side issues, is weighing on the short-term outlook.
- Currency weakness is drawing greater attention, and we think the BoJ will need to act next year.
- Profits surprisingly accelerated in September, de- spite widespread disruption...
- ...Digging deeper, profits look relatively anaemic, with the improvement driven by transitory factors.
- Margin squeezes are persisting, and profits should come back to reality in October.
- A new property tax pilot reform provides a long run- way to a long-awaited policy.
- The signalling effect alone will weigh further on property prices and sales, despite a five-year trial.
- Chinese property's glory days are well and truly finished.
- Widespread electricity rationing will drive activity down in September and October.
- Property is bigger long-term concern, but energy rationing will have a more immediate impact.
- Evergrande continues to deteriorate and spread contagion through real and financial channels.
- Evergrande's vague statement won’t cut it, but the PBoC is on the case, for now...
- ...More will be needed from both parties, though, particularly with dollar debt default still looming.
- BoJ green policy has potential, but it needs fiscal support to be realised.
Fear of Evergrande contagion is dragging the PBoC into liquidity injections; an RRR cut is in the offing...
... But weak GDP growth will also force the Bank to drive market rates lower through OMOs.
The new green plank of BoJ policy struggles on the implementation details.
- Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
- ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
- ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.
- Data in the next few months will force the authori- ties to reconsider zero Covid tolerance...
- ... But translating that into an official shift in the policy stance could take time.
- In the meantime, the August and September PMIs looked exposed.