Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Asia Publications

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Productivity

14 May 2020 Korea's Stable Unemployment Rate Belies the Ongoing Virus Hit to Jobs

Korea's unemployment rate was unchanged in April, at 3.8%, beating even our below-consensus forecast for only a minor uptick, to 3.9%.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)13th May 2020 20:10Asia

3 Feb 2020 China's January Survey Data Imply Weakness before the Virus Hit

The official PMIs suggest that the January survey data have escaped the worst of the hit from the virus.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)2nd Feb 2020 19:10Asia

16 Dec 2019 "Phase One" Picked Low-Hanging Fruit... Now for the Hard Part

ate last week, China and the U.S. reached an agreement, averting the planned U.S. tariff hikes on Chinese consumer goods that were slated to be imposed on December 15.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)15th Dec 2019 19:10Asia

22 Nov 2019 China's Exit from PPI Deflation Next Year will be Short-Lived

The PBoC's quarterly monetary policy report seemed relatively sanguine on the question of PPI deflation, attributing it mainly to base effects--not entirely...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)21st Nov 2019 18:50Asia

12 Nov 2019 China's October Money Data Mean a 2020 GDP Growth Downgrade

We have downgraded our 2019 and 2020 China GDP forecasts on previous occasions because monetary conditions have been surprisingly unresponsive to lower short-term rates.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)11th Nov 2019 19:10Asia

13 Sept 2019 Korea's Jobs Surprise... the Higher they Rise, the Harder they Fall

Korea's jobs report for August was a stonker, with unemployment plunging to 3.1%, from 4.0% in July, marking the lowest rate in more than five years.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)12th Sep 2019 20:10Asia

13 March 2019 China's Slowing Services Inflation Sheds Light on the Labour Market

Data over the weekend revealed a further slowdown in China's CPI inflation, to 1.5% in February, from 1.7% in January.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)12th Mar 2019 20:10Asia

5 November 2018 China's Role in Global Rates over the Next 10 Years

In recent months we've been thinking more deeply about the themes for the next economic cycle for China, and its impact on the world.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)4th Nov 2018 19:10Asia

25 September 2018 Has China Stemmed the Decline of Productivity Growth

Amid all the trade tensions, it's easy to lose sight of the big picture for China.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)24th Sep 2018 20:10Asia

12 September 2018 Don't Expect Japanese GDP Growth to Maintain the Q2 Pace

Revisions to Japan's real GDP growth, on Monday, left Q2 blisteringly hot.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)11th Sep 2018 20:10Asia

4 June 2018 Chinese PPI Inflation is Set to Head Higher, it will be Short-lived

The Caixin manufacturing headline was unremarkable, but the input price index signals that PPI inflation is set to rise again in May, to 4.0%-plus, from 3.4% in April.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)3rd Jun 2018 18:06Asia

24 April 2018 Japan's PMI Lends Strength to the Nascent Re ation Story

Japan's manufacturing PMI rose to 53.3 in April, from 53.1 in March. The index weakened earlier this year, but remained at levels unjustified by the hard data.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)23rd Apr 2018 18:10Asia

6 February 2018 China's Services PMI Overstates Growth in Q1 February to Correct

The jump in the Caixin services PMI in the past two months looks erratic, with holiday effects playing a role, though there could be more going on here.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)5th Feb 2018 04:57Asia

31 January 2018 Japan's Labour Market Squeeze is set to Intensify Further

Japan's headline jobless rate edged up to 2.8% in December, from 2.7% in November, but the increase was negligible, with the rate moving to 2.76% from 2.74%.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)30th Jan 2018 09:02Asia

6 December 2017 Manufacturing Productivity Rises in China at the Expense of Services

China's Caixin services PMI picked up further in November to 51.9 from October's 51.2, but the rebound is merely a correction to the overshoot in September, when the...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)5th Dec 2017 06:07Asia

19 October 2017 China's Leaders Will Allow 2018 Growth to run Below Target

President Xi Jinping started China's Party Congress yesterday with a speech setting out the priorities for the next five years.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)18th Oct 2017 06:10Asia

10 October 2017 China's Services Sector Losing Momentum as Consumers Flag

We wrote last month about how the Caixin services PMI appeared to be missing the deterioration in several key services subsectors.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)9th Oct 2017 08:10Asia

2 August 2017 Inflation to Erode Chinese Demand in the Second Half

The Caixin manufacturing PMI rebounded to 51.1 in July from 50.4 in June, soundly beating the consensus for no change. The PMIs are seasonally adjusted but the data are much less...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)1st Aug 2017 07:14Asia

27 July 2017 China's Reform Scorecard Part 2: Tax Revenues

In yesterday's Monitor, we outlined how the government's plans to allow more migrants to register in cities could help counterbalance the effects of aging and put a floor...

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)26th Jul 2017 06:26Asia

15 June 2017 China's Q2 Growth to Remain Sturdy but Expect a Slower H2

China's industrial production grew at an annualised 7.2% rate by volume in Q1, according to our estimates, up from an average 5.9% rate in the six quar ters through mid-2016.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)14th Jun 2017 08:03Asia

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