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PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.
Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.
Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.
July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.
PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.
M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.
From all the PBoC's vast toolbox, the most important thing right now is the clues to be gleaned over intentions on rates from open market operations.
The Bank made a surprise announcement at its meeting last week.
China's PMIs strongly suggest that supply-side bottlenecks, if anything, are worsening.
China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed at 51.0 in May, after April’s 51.1, with the index remaining oblivious to U.S. stimulus efforts and in recent months.
Overall, data available so far for May point to a modest improvement in Chinese manufacturing.
Normally, when M1 growth slows, and credit conditions tighten, that's it for the Chinese cycle. We think the peak of M1 growth, for now, was in January, and credit conditions appeared to tighten in the last few months.
The PBoC has slowed up on the pace of tightening in recent months, with a question mark hanging over the economy.
We are waiting for a step change in China's trade surplus, back down to pre-Covid levels, but the April data left us still holding our breath.
One of the big questions facing the global economy is when the trade cycle will falter.
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