Pantheon Macroeconomics

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China+ Publications

Below is a list of our China+ Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

commodity

10 Sept 2021 August Likely was the Peak in PPI Inflation, Expect Disinflation in 2022

  • PPI inflation surprised to the upside in August, reflecting stubborn commodity pressures...
  • ...The Ningbo-Zhoushan port closure likely was a factor, too, but disinflation is now on the horizon
  • Pork price deflation continues to pull down CPI inflation, but underlying pressures are still building.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 Sept 2021 August's Punchy Trade Likely will Come at the Expense of September

  • China's trade surplus surprised in August, with two- way trade enjoying hefty rebounds from July.
  • Activity likely benefited from front-loading, though, and the orders data still point to a sharp correction.
  • FX reserves fell only marginally in August, suggest- ing a bounce-back in capital outflows.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Sept 2021 China's Equity Rebound will Lack Fundamental Drivers

  • Services PMIs should rebound this month but the trends are concerning...
  • ... Zero-Covid tolerance will keep drivers of above- trend private consumption growth on the sidelines...
  • ...Where they could whither away; a rebound from the regulatory shock looks unsupported.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 Aug 2021 PBoC Tightening Would be Imminent if Not for the Delta Variant

PPI inflation is proving stubborn, while CPI inflation is just getting started.

Services inflation continues to rise, despite the broadening Delta scare.

Trade figures highlight the "mid-cycle" falter, as exports soften but imports stumble too.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

6 Aug 2021 The Trade Surplus is Likely to Remain Under Pressure

July exports likely weakened, while imports will be boosted by the tail end of commodities inflation.

PPI inflation may not yet have peaked; headline CPI inflation is just about food prices.

M1 growth should now be troughing, but an RRR cut is looking more likely nonetheless.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

3 Aug 2021 China's Manufacturing Underperformance Continues

China's weak July PMIs play into a wider story of underperformance in trade and manufacturing.

The official and Caixin reports are at odds on prices, but we reckon PPI inflation ticked higher in July.

The non-manufacturing gauge suggests that no fis- cal rescue has been forthcoming.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

2 Aug 2021 Underlying Chinese Inflation is More Progressed than in DMs

China's PPI inflation is at or near its peak, and CPI inflation remains relatively tame...

... But underlying inflationary pressure is more ad- vanced in China, thanks to the early recovery.

More limited slack means services inflation is on a sustained uptrend.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

16 July 2021 Data are Conflicting, but we Think China's Growth Slowed in Q2

Sometimes when you put together the Chinese data, it feels like you are drawing from multiple jigsaw puzzles, each with pieces missing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 July 2021 Export Trends Remain Weak Despite the June Pop

Chinese exports surprised to the upside in June, with growth picking up to 32.2% year-over-year, from 27.9% in May.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 July 2021 The RRR Cut was About Managing Interbank Liquidity

The PBoC followed through with a Reserve Requirement Ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points on Friday, hot on the heels of a strong hint to do so from the State Council meeting earlier in the week.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 July 2021 CPI Inflation Could Still Edge Higher in June, Despite Mid-Year Weakness

Energy inflation is not straightforward to forecast in China, thanks to the lack of clarity over the CPI weights.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

1 July 2021 Manufacturing PMI Points to Q2 GDP Growth Slowdown

The official manufacturing PMI indicates that bottlenecks remain a problem.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

22 June 2021 The PBoC will Continue with its Balancing Act, For Now

The PBoC continues to hold off on tightening, as it waits for something closer to herd immunity, and to see how the economy responds to "freedom".

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

14 June 2021 What Do China's Emissions Targets Mean for Policy this Year?

Last year President Xi announced a new target
for China, with the importance of GDP targeting diminishing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

10 June 2021 The PBoC Can't Ignore Sky-High PPI Inflation

The authorities are growing increasingly uncomfortable with the upward march of commodity prices.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

8 June 2021 China is Exposed to a Double Whammy Against Exports

It's now widely appreciated that Chinese exports are exposed, as the global economy switches lanes to services, from manufacturing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

1 June 2021 The PMI Suggests PPI Inflation Likely Jumped Again in May

China's official manufacturing PMI was little changed at 51.0 in May, after April’s 51.1, with the index remaining oblivious to U.S. stimulus efforts and in recent months.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

28 May 2021 Manufacturing PMIs Could Edge Higher this Month

Overall, data available so far for May point to a modest improvement in Chinese manufacturing.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

13 May 2021 Fiscal Hawkishness is Tightening Monetary Conditions

M1 growth dropped further in April, to 6.2% year- over-year, from March's already-low 7.1%. 

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

12 May 2021 Are Chinese Firms Running out of Cash to Support Commodities

China's PPI inflation picked up to 6.8% in April, from March's 4.4%, and it isn't quite done yet.

Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)China+

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