Pantheon Publications

Below is a list of our Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep.

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

2 November 2023 UK Monitor Will Next Year's Increase in the National Living Wage Embed High Inflation?

The NLW looks set to rise by about 7% next April, while the Real Living Wage has just been increased by 10%.
Fewer people than last year, however, are paid the NLW, and supermarkets may shrink their premium to the NLW.
Now ample labour market slack will bear down on pay rises offered to the bulk of employees not on the NLW.

Samuel TombsUK

1 November 2023 Global Monitor BoE to keep powder dry again

U.S. - Unemployment Likely will Rise even if Job Gains Remain Close to 200K
EUROZONE- A Dovish ECB, Despite No Talk of Rate Cuts Next Year
U.K. - MPC Won’t Hint at 2024 Rate Cuts Just Yet, Despite Data Surprises
CHINA+ - More Stimulus Provides a Growth Cushion Going into 2024
EM ASIA - BSP’s Off-Cycle Rate Hike a Rash Move; Expect No More This Quarter
LATAM - We Still Expect Brazil’s Selic Rate to Be Cut to Around 7% Next Year

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

PM Datanote: U.S. ECI, Q3

Labor cost inflation is slowing; further progress likely, depressing core services PCE inflation.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

PM Datanote: U.S. Consumer Confidence/Chicago PMI

Consumers' confidence likely to rebound from here; the manufacturing recovery is stalling.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & EZ GDP, October/Q3

In one line: EZ headline inflation will snap back in coming months; GDP is going nowhere.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote:Advance GDP, Italy, Q3 2023

In one line: Avoided a technical recession, just.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 November 2023 China+ Monitor The BoJ's Softened Policy Commitment Invites Speculation

The BoJ announced another change to make itsyield curve control policy more flexible yesterday.
The switch to a soft "reference" target, from a hard cap, is likely to lead investors to test the BoJ.
The Bank is likely to hold the line, just, until U.S. yields fall next year, relieving pressure on the JPY.

Duncan WrigleyChina+

1 November 2023 US Monitor More of the Same from Chair Powell Today; Optionality Still Needed

The Fed will stick to its position today that policy optionality is still required; inflation not yet beaten.
ISM manufacturing has likely stalled; the modest uptick in the sector has run into the spike in rates.
Auto sales probably rose marginally in October, but the overall trend is about flat.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

1 November 2023 Eurozone Monitor Rapid Disinflation and Falling GDP in the EZ; Will the ECB Take Note?

EZ inflation plunged in October, but energy inflation will snap back in November and December.
We still see a much quicker fall in core inflation than the ECB between now and March.
GDP in the Eurozone fell slightly in Q3, and we look for another poor quarter in Q4, with zero growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 November 2023 UK Monitor BRC and Eurozone Data Point to a Sharp Fall in CPI inflation in October

CPI inflation likely fell sharply in October, driven chiefly by the energy component...
...but BRC and Eurozone data are consistent with further declines in food and core goods CPI inflation too.
Our headline rate forecast, 4.6%, is 0.3pp below the MPC’s, but is subject to revision as more data come in.