Pantheon Publications

EM Asia Datanote: March CPI & February IP, India

• In one line: LPG price cut pulls inflation down below 5% for the first time since October; don’t be fooled by the jolt in IP growth.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

UK Datanote: UK Final Manufacturing PMI, March 2024

• In one line: Almost back to growth.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, February 2024

• In one line:Consumer caution fading in response to lower interest rates.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

PM Datanote: US Personal Income & Spending/Trade, February

Core prices back on track; real after-tax income growth slowing sharply

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision and Minutes, March 2024

• In one line: MPC gears up for a summer rate cut with tweaks to guidance.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

EM Asia Datanote: Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) Decision

• In one line: Anticipated hike to electricity tariffs spooks the CBC into a surprise hike.

Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

EM Asia Datanote: February CPI & January IP, India

• In one line: Delaying our first RBI rate cut call to August; industry is floundering, forget the H2 2023 ’strength’ in GDP.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, February 2024

• In one line: Expected interest rate cuts breathe life into house building.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, February 2024

• In one line: Growth beating the MPC's forecast, supporting services inflation.

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, January 2024

• In one line: Consumer credit rebound backs up retail sales recovery in January.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, February 2024

• In one line: Large bounce in the output index looks suspicious.

Samuel TombsUK

EM Asia Datanote: January CPI & December IP, India

• In one line: Still waiting on the onion price correction to show in CPI; the trend in IP growth is clearly one of moderation.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

China+ Datanote: Money & Credit, China, January

M1 and credit growth beat expectations, thanks to stimulus

Duncan WrigleyChina+

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Services Survey, January 2024

• In one line: Strengthening recovery will allow the MPC to take its time. 

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Construction Survey, January 2024

• In one line: Optimism improving as lower borrowing costs start to underpin demand.

Samuel TombsUK

UK Datanote: U.K. S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing Survey, January 2024

• In one line: Supply chain disruptions threaten to compound the demand-driven downturn in output.  

Samuel TombsUK