Pantheon Publications

April 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING IN JUNE...

• ...IF THE INFLATION AND WAGE DATA COOPERATE

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

April 2024 - UK Chartbook

STUBBORN SERVICES INFLATION AND WAGES...

• ...BUT THE MPC HAS SEEN ENOUGH SLOWING TO CUT IN JUNE

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

April 2024 - US Economic Chartbook

LABOR MARKET WARNING SIGNS ARE FLASHING RED…

• …BUT CHAIR POWELL SEES NO “CRACKS”

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

March 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

ACTIVITY IS STRUGGLING AND DISINFLATION IS CONTINUING…

• …ENABLING CENTRAL BANKS TO PURSUE FURTHER RATE CUTS

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

March 2024- Emerging Asia Chartbook

8% GROWTH IN INDIA AN UNSUSTAINABLE FACADE

• …TAIWAN’S SURPRISE HIKE SHOULD BE A ‘ONE-AND-DONE’

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

March 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

ECB MONETARY EASING WILL BEGIN SOON...

• ...APRIL IS LIVE, BUT JUNE IS MORE LIKELY

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

March 2024 - U.K. Chartbook

CPI INFLATION WILL BE SUB-2.0% AS SOON AS APRIL...

• ...THE MPC HAS THE CONFIDENCE TO START CUTTING IN JUNE

Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK

March 2024 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

THE LABOR MARKET IS ABOUT TO SLOW, SHARPLY…

• …THE FED WILL RESPOND, BUT WHEN?

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

March 2024 - China+ Chartbook

CHINA+ OUTLOOK

- CHINA’S TWO SESSIONS OFFER ONLY TARGETED STIMULUS
- BOJ EXITS FROM NEGATIVE RATES; NO NEAR-TERM MOVES
- DEMAND FOR HIGH-END CHIPS LIFTS KOREAN EXPORTS

Duncan WrigleyChina+

February 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

MONETARY POLICY NORMALISATION CONTINUES...

• ...DESPITE A BAD START TO Q1 FOR INFLATION, DUE TO EL NIÑO

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

February 2024 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

CHICKENS COME HOME TO ROOST IN THAILAND

• ...FAREWELL TO AUTOMATIC FISCAL CONSOLIDATION IN INDIA
  
  

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

February 2023 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE ECB IS DONE HIKING; EASING WILL BEGIN SOON

• ...WE STILL SEE A FIRST RATE CUT IN APRIL

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

February 2023 - U.K. Chartbook

CPI INFLATION WILL BE SUB-2.0% AS SOON AS Q2...

• ...BUT STICKY WAGE GROWTH WILL LIMIT RATE CUTS

Samuel TombsUK

February 2024 - U.S. Economic Chartbook

THE FED’S CAUTION ULTIMATELY MEANS MORE EASING...

• ...THEY’LL START IN MAY

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US

February 2023 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA’S CREDIT DATA OFFER GLIMMERS OF HOPE
• - TOKYO CORE INFLATION DIPS BELOW BOJ’S TARGET
• - NEW PRODUCT LAUNCHES HELP LIFT KOREAN EXPORTS

Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+

January 2024 - Latin America Chartbook

INFLATION CONTINUES TO FALL AND GROWTH IS SLUGGISH...

• ...ALLOWING GRADUAL INTEREST RATE CUTS

Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America

January 2024 - Emerging Asia Chartbook

MALAYSIA’S Q4 GDP DISAPPOINTS SUBSTANTIALLY...

• ...INDIA’S ADVANCE ESTIMATE FOR 2023/24 GDP IS FARCICAL

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia

January 2024 - U.K. Chartbook

CPI INFLATION WILL BE BACK TO 2.0% BY APRIL...

• ...BUT THE MPC WON’T RETURN RATES TO NEUTRAL RAPIDLY

Samuel TombsUK

January 2024 - China+ Chartbook

• - CHINA WILL STAY THE COURSE, DESPITE SLOWING GROWTH
• - BOJ IS LASER-FOCUSED ON WAGE NEGOTIATIONS
• - KOREAN EXPORTS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM CHIP UPCYCLE

Duncan WrigleyChina+

January 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE ECB IS DONE HIKING; WHEN WILL IT CUT?

• ...WE THINK EASING WILL BEGIN IN MARCH

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone