A SMALL WOBBLE AS MORTGAGE-RATE DROP PAUSES...
- ...BUT PRICES WILL STILL RISE 4% IN 2024
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
- The rise in the EZ composite PMI suggests we should expect a pick up in GDP growth in Q2.
- Higher selling price expectations won’t prevent an ECB cut in June; they still point to lower inflation.
- The SNB’s tweak to minimum reserve requirements is not as big a deal as markets think.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The PMI is consistent with 0.4% quarter-to-quarter GDP growth in Q2, above the MPC’s 0.1% forecast.
The PAYE employment drop in March looks like noise, as the PMI records strengthening jobs growth.
Price pressures remain elevated, with the minimum-wage hike boosting input price inflation.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Residential investment bounced in Q1.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)US
- In one line: Post-festive spending fatigue hits growth.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Gaining steam, even though seasonals are likely behind some of the pick up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Gaining steam, even though seasonals are likely behind some of the pick up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Great, but can the services PMI be trusted?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Great, but can the services PMI be trusted?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent, but exclusively due to strength in services
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Decent, but exclusively due to strength in services
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In one line: Borrowing overshoots Budget forecasts but the Chancellor will still cut taxes again later this year.
Rob Wood (Chief UK Economist)UK
Firmer employment cushions a marginal softening in orders and output in India’s April manufacturing PMI
India’s services PMI remains comfortably above 60; thankfully, April saw an easing in price pressures
Singapore's inflation outlook remains challenging, depsite the March drop
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- S&P's PMI is too unreliable a guide to GDP to be useful, but its soft inflation signal should be taken seriously.
- Annual retail sales revisions could have significant implications for consumption growth in Q1.
- New home sales probably rose in March, capping a strong quarter for residential investment.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)US
- Thousands of Colombians protest against Petro’s economic and social reforms; good news for the COP.
- Economic activity is struggling to gain momentum, due to tight financial conditions and policy risk.
- The improving external accounts provide BanRep with flexibility; we expect further bold rate cuts in Q2.
Andres Abadia (Senior International Economist)Latin America
- Indonesia’s surplus leapt unexpectedly to a 13-month high, with exports reversing their 2024 drop.
- The outlook for key commodities has brightened, pointing to an imminent return to positive growth…
- …Real demand from China also looks set to pop, but this probably won’t be felt until Q2, at the earliest.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- China’s loan prime rates were left unchanged in April after the PBoC’s earlier decision to hold the MLF.
- The PBoC has less room to cut rates in the near term as market bets on a delayed Fed cut rate increase.
- Early Korean export data show strong memory-chip demand; US shipments remain solid.
Kelvin Lam (Senior China+ Economist)China+
- The jump in US rate expectations is not needed to explain the similar repricing in EZ expectations.
- We expect bond yields in Germany to drift lower in the near term as the ECB starts cutting rates...
- ...But we still see an increase next year as the policy rate settles above neutral and inflation risks return.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
