- Indian industrial production growth rebounded in February, but the climate remains challenging…
- …The inventory-to-sales ratio continues to deteriorate, while consumer demand is sagging.
Core inflation fell to a new low in March; thankfully, food-price stickiness isn’t impacting expectations.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Little real good news from the smallest deficit in nearly a year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A simultaneous easing in manufactured products and fuel & power deflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: LPG price cut pulls inflation down below 5% for the first time since October; don’t be fooled by the jolt in IP growth.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Singaporean GDP growth picks up in Q1 on recovering external demand
MAS opens the door to easing in Q4
Base effects are now dominating Philippine sales growth, masking weak marginal trends
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Below-consensus Q1 GDP growth in Singapore, despite friendly base effects, was no surprise to us...
- … As the uneven recover y in electronics and weaker construction activity continue to weigh on growth.
- The MAS has star ted making noise about easing in Q4, but we remain unconvinced, for now.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Base effects are masking lacklustre momentum in Philippine trade
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Export growth leaps back to double-digits.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: Independence sufficiently proven, prep for a June cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BoT yesterday sprang no surprise, keeping its policy rate at 2.50% in another five-to-two split…
- …But its latest forecasts and rhetoric betray waning confidence; we continue to see the first cut in June.
- Taiwanese export growth rebounded strongly in March; watch the boom in AI-related shipments.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
In one line: Festive demand-driven increases unwind.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Headline inflation in Taiwan nosedived to 2.1% in March, after jumping to 3.1% in February…
- …As positive Lunar New Year demand effects reversed sharply; food base effects helped too.
- Food prices should drag more on the headline, but upward risks from energy and services have risen.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The BSP held rates yesterday but sounded more hawkish, raising its 2024 inflation forecast to 4.0%.
- We still expect 100bp in cuts this year, with the first in June; food inflation will start co-operating in May.
- Another day, another Lunar New Year boost to February retail sales growth; this time in Malaysia.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
Festive spending boosts Singaporean retail sales growth in February
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- Singaporean retail sales growth jumped to 8.4% in February, from 1.6% in January…
- …Bolstered by Lunar New Year festive demand falling in February, compared with January in 2023.
- We still expect a gradual moderation in retail sales this year as wage and employment growth slows.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- The big drop in Vietnamese GDP growth to 5.7% in Q1 was due mainly to seasonal noise unwinding…
- …Trade enjoyed a robust start to the year, but the same cannot be said for household spending.
- We push back our expectation for the first BI cut to Q4, given rising and stubborn food inflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- In one line: A y/y bounce inflated by base effects, but trends at the margin are finally turning.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
- We now see GDP growth in Singapore rising to 2.6% in Q1, after 2.2% in Q4…
- …Supported by the ongoing recovery in external demand and higher tourist arrivals.
- We’ve also upgraded our 2024 growth forecast to 2.2%, from 1.7%, underpinned by healthier trade.
Moorthy Krshnan (Senior Asia Economist)Emerging Asia
