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Financial Times - Mortgage borrowing rise signals stabilisation in UK house market (Media Centre)

Chief UK Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Mortgage Borrowing

14 Mar. 2016 Don't Abandon All Hope in EZ Equities - Better Times are Ahead (Publication Centre)

The benchmark MSCI EU ex-UK equity index was down a startling 17% year-over-year at the end of February. A disappointing policy package from the ECB in December initially put Eurozone equities on the back foot, and the awful start to the year for global risk assets has since piled on the misery.

28 Jan. 2015 QE will boost equities this year, but valuations will be stretched to the extreme (Publication Centre)

The ECB will receive most of the credit for the recent gain in stock markets, but the main leading indicator for the stock market, excess liquidity, was already turning up late last year. With the MSCI EU ex-UK up 21%, in euro terms, since October, a lot is already priced in, but in the medium term the outlook is upbeat, and we look for further gains this year.

12 July. 2016 EZ Credit Markets Are Surging, But Equities Can't Keep Up (Publication Centre)

Eurozone capital markets have been split across the main asset classes this year. Equity investors have had a nightmare. The MSCI EU ex-UK index is down 10.6% year-to-date, a remarkably poor performance given additional QE from the ECB and stable GDP growth. Corporate bonds, on the other hand, are sizzling.

H2 2017 U.K. Outlook - Weak GDP and Wage Growth Will Keep Higher Interest Rates at Bay (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

6 Nov 2019 A Lukewarm Response from Firms to the New Brexit Deal (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS services survey suggests that the PM's new Brexit deal has had a lukewarm reception from firms.

Guardian - Weak UK growth and tax revenues put the squeeze on Hammond (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Government Borrowing

Financial Times - Halifax data strengthen evidence of uptick in UK house prices (Media Centre)

Chief U.K Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Halifax House Prices in July

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Two large consecutive falls aren't a fluke.

BBC - UK goods trade gap biggest on record (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs Discussing the UK Goods Trade

9 Dec 2019 Fluke or Real? Don't Leap to Conclusions Either Way, Yet (Publication Centre)

We have two competing explanations for the unexpected leap in November payrolls. First, it was a fluke, so it will either be revised down substantially, or will be followed by a hefty downside correction in December.

BBC - UK third quarter GDP confirmed at 0.5% (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Q3 GDP

Business Insiders - The UK, German and Italian economies are all tanking at the same time (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Economies

Financial Times - UK manufacturing contraction eases in May (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K Manufacturing in May

BUSINESS INSIDER UK - BRITAIN BEATS -- GDP figures shrug off Brexit and smash expectations (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Q3 Preliminary GDP data

Financial Times - UK manufacturing down to lowest capacity utilisation rate on record (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Unemployment

Financial Times - 'Shackles are still on': analysts respond to UK economic growth data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. growth data

FINANCIAL TIMES - UK house price falls - how much is down to Brexit? (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Financial Times - Confidence in UK house prices wobbles despite October rise (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. House Prices

Financial Times - Economists split over impact of UK election outcome (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Election

Financial Times - Analysts warn rise in UK retail sales may be a 'blip' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs ok U.K. Retail Sales

Business Insider - There's a coming storm set to 'batter' the UK economy -- and it has nothing to do with Brexit (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs the recent increase in Oil

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Surprise comeback for France as economy grows twice as fast as UK (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone economist Claus Vistesen comments on the latest GDP figures from France

FINANCIAL TIMES - UK housing market stabilises after Brexit vote (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Mortgage Approvals

City A.M. - UK economy set to return to growth in third quarter after coronavirus chaos (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K PMI

BBC NEWS - UK new car sales rise in September (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. New Car Sales

BBC - UK economy grows at fastest rate since late 2016 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP in Q3

BBC - UK government borrowing lowest for 11 years (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Government Borrowing

BBC - UK government borrowing narrows after EU credit (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Government Borrowing

BBC - UK economic growth slows to 0.4% in first quarter (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

BBC - UK economic growth 'stalls' as service sector slides (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. PMI data in November

BBC - UK car sales fall 9.3% in July says motor trade body (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. New Car Registrations, July

BBC - UK car sales fall for fifth month in a row (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. New Car Registrations

BBC - UK industrial production shrank in 2015 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Industrial Production

BBC - UK manufacturing output at its highest for 10 years (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing Output

BBC NEWS - UK employment hits another record high (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest employment figures

BBC NEWS - UK growth rebound eases recession fears (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest GDP figures

Financial Times - Uncertainty puts brakes on UK car market (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Automotive Industry

BBC NEWS - UK construction sector slows down in January (Media Centre)

Chief U.K.. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. Construction

BBC NEWS - UK 'at risk of slipping into recession' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest PMI data

BBC - UK retail sales hit by mild autumn (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in October

BBC News - Coronavirus: UK economy 'set for deepest downturn in memory' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

BBC News - Weak November weighs on UK growth (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

BBC - House prices in UK shift to lower gear (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. House Prices

Reuters - UK inflation hits four-year low on oil price fall, COVID impact (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K Inflation

REUTERS - UK inflation was zero in 2015 despite December lift (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

REUTERS - UK manufacturing outlook darkens, retail sales slip (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. Manufacturing

Reuters - UK factory output falls for first time in almost a year (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing Output

Reuters - UK economy flat-lines, hit by Brexit and global slowdown, as election nears (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. GDP

Reuters - Rising UK unemployment pressures Sunak to renew job support (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist on U.K. Unemployment Q2

Reuters - UK business malaise deepened before election - PMI (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

Reuters - UK retailers suffer worst September on record, BRC says (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales

The Guardian - Charity shop and antique purchases drive up UK retail sales (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in June

THE TELEGRAPH - Boost for George Osborne as UK borrowing drops in December (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. economist Samuel Tombs comments on today's retail data release

THE TELEGRAPH - UK construction declines for third straight month (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. construction

Guardian - Record rise in import costs dents growth in UK manufacturing (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

THE GUARDIAN - UK manufacturing growth slows in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

THE GUARDIAN - UK manufacturing expects hard winter ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

THE GUARDIAN - Shock UK deficit figures dent George Osborne's economic plan (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K Deficit

The Guardian - UK house prices make surprise 5.9% rise in February, Halifax says (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Halifax House Prices

REUTERS - Cheaper petrol pushes UK inflation to lowest since March 2017 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

TELEGRAPH - UK house prices slip as market feels a chill (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Guardian - UK GDP growth slower than expected as inflation bites (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing Q1 GDP Results

GUARDIAN - UK house prices edge up 0.2% in April (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Guardian - UK house prices fell in January for the first time in five months (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Guardian - UK factory output grows at fastest rate since mid-1990s (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey

Guardian - UK economy already flatlining before coronavirus, figures reveal (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP in February

Guardian - UK consumers face sharpest price rise in services for nearly a decade (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Price Increases

Independent - UK pay growth data disappoints again as real wages decline at fastest rate in three years (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Labour Market data for May

GUARDIAN - UK inflation steady at 2.4% in October after food price war (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

GUARDIAN - UK house price growth up in final set of figures before vote to leave EU (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

INDEPENDENT - The chart that shows the UK economic recovery is "on its knees" (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. PMI data, April

Independent - UK economy growth could slip due to North Sea pipeline shutdown, warn experts (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. economy growth

Independent - UK mortgage lending rises ahead of possible rate rise (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Halifax House Price data

Guardian - Unemployment in US and UK 'may be worse than in Great Depression' (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the latest data from the Eurozone

GUARDIAN - UK manufacturers suffer further drop in orders, CBI survey shows (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. manufacturing

GUARDIAN - UK service companies anxious about year ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K.. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. PMI

Independent - UK house price growth drops to five-year low as London remains worst-performing region (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

City A.M. - Retail sales decline for longest stretch in eight years (Media Centre)

Chief UK Economist Samuel Tombs on UK Retail Sales

14 January 2019 November's Pick up in GDP Growth is Noise, not Signal (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at November's GDP report gives the misleading impression that the U.K. economy is ticking over nicely, despite Brexit.

14 Jan 2020 Don't Read November's GDP Report in Isolation (Publication Centre)

Investors concluded too hastily yesterday that November's GDP report boosted the chances that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its upcoming meeting on January 30.

14 Apr 2020 Don't Expect the Treasury to Pay Down its Overdraft Quickly (Publication Centre)

The BoE announced on Thursday that it had agreed the Treasury could increase its usage of its Ways and Means facility--effectively the government's overdraft at the central bank--without limit.

14 March 2017 A Hard Brexit is not Inevitable, Despite the Government's Rhetoric (Publication Centre)

With just days to go until the Government triggers Article 50, the consensus view remains that Britain is heading for a "hard" Brexit, which will leave it without unrestricted access to the single market and outside the customs union. We think this view overlooks how political pressures likely will change over the next two years.

14 May 2020 GDP Likely Fell even Further in April than March Data Imply (Publication Centre)

We take little comfort from the fact that the 2.0% quarter-on-quarter drop in Q1 GDP was a bit smaller than the consensus forecast, 2.5%, and the 3.0% fall pencilled-in by the MPC in its Monetary Policy Report.

13 September 2016 Sterling is Already Stoking Price Pressures, More to Come (Publication Centre)

August's consumer price figures, released today, likely will show that households' spending power is being increasingly eroded by rising inflation. We think CPI inflation picked up to 0.8%, from 0.6% in July, exceeding the consensus, 0.7%, for the third consecutive month.

15 July. 2016 Autos Will Depress Headline June Spending, Core Picture is Fine (Publication Centre)

When the dust settles after today's wave of data, we expect to have learned that core retail sales continued to rise in June, core inflation nudged back up to its cycle high, and manufacturing output rebounded after an auto-led drop in May. None of these reports will be enough to push the Fed into early action, but they will add to the picture of a reasonably solid domestic economy ahead of the U.K. Brexit referendum.

14 November 2017 Are Investors Complacent to Expect a Smooth Brexit Transition in 2019? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened yesterday, to $1.31 from $1.32, following news that 40 Conservative MPs have agreed to sign a letter of no-confidence in the Prime Minister.

15 September 2016 A Critical 12 Months Ahead for the EU (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's State of the Union address by EC president Jean-Claude Juncker commanded more attention than usual, but contained little news on the key talking points for investors.

11 December 2018 Probably No Help From Net Exports for German GDP in Q4 (Publication Centre)

German net exports were treading water at the start of the fourth quarter. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus slipped to €17.4B in October, from a revised €17.7B in September, constrained by a 1.3% month-to-month rise in imports, which offset a 0.7% increase in exports.

12 Jan. 2016 Stable Eurozone GDP Growth and Higher Inflation in 2016? (Publication Centre)

The recent cyclical upturn in the EZ began in the first quarter of 2013. GDP growth has accelerated almost uninterruptedly for the last two years to 1.5% year-over-year in Q3, despite the Greek debt crisis and slower growth in emerging markets. Overall we think the recovery will continue with full-year GDP growth of about 1.6%. But we also think the business cycle is maturing, characterised by stable GDP growth and higher inflation, and we see the economy slowing next year.

11 May 2020 More QE Coming in June, Following Inaction from the MPC Last Week (Publication Centre)

The MPC's pause for breath last week disappointed a majority of investors, who thought that it would at least tweak aspects of the support programmes put in place in March.

11 March 2019 Will the BoE be the Next Central Bank to Ditch its Tightening Plans? (Publication Centre)

The MPC went against the grain last month by forecasting that CPI inflation would overshoot the 2% target if it raised Bank Rate as slowly as markets anticipated.

16 Feb. 2016 The ECB Remains on Track to Deliver More Easing in March (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi's introductory statement before yesterday's hearing at the European Parliament repeated that the ECB will "review and possibly reconsider its monetary policy stance in March." But it didn't provide any conclusive smoking gun that further easing is a done deal.

12 Mar 2020 Fiscal Policy Levers Pulled Aggressively, Limiting Recession Risk (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak's "temporary, timely and targeted" fiscal response to the Covid-19 outbreak, and the BoE's accompanying stimulus measures, won't prevent GDP from falling over the next couple of months.

12 May 2020 Brace for a GDP Drop of About 2.5% in Q1, Despite the Late Lockdown (Publication Centre)

The Q1 GDP figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that the quarter-on-quarter decline in economic activity eclipsed the biggest decline in the 2008-to-09 recession--2.1% in Q4 2008--even though the U.K. went into lockdown towards the very end of the quarter.

13 Mar 2020 Market Meltdown Makes Further MPC Easing Likely on March 26 (Publication Centre)

The measures to support the economy through the coronavirus crisis, unveiled by policymakers on Budget day, exceeded expectations.

13 July. 2016 German Inflation is Rising, but Will Bund Yields Pay Attention? (Publication Centre)

The final June inflation report from Germany yesterday confirmed that pressures are rising. Inflation rose to 0.3% year-over-year in June, up from 0.1% in May, mainly due to higher energy prices. Household energy prices--utilities--fell 4.9% year-over-year, up from a 5.7% decline in May, while deflation in petrol prices eased to -9.4%, up from -12.1% in May.

12 September. 2016 More Poor Data Signal Slow Start to Q3 (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data added to the evidence that the German economy stumbled in July. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus slipped to €19.4B, from a revised €21.4B in June.

13 October. 2016 The Chancellor Won't Set Fiscal Policy to Boost Growth Next Year (Publication Centre)

Many commentators have assumed that the new Chancellor's pledge to "reset" fiscal policy and to stop targeting a budget surplus in this parliament means that fiscal policy will support growth in economic activity next year.

2 Oct 2020 Why Haven't Core Consumer Goods Prices Fallen Yet? (Publication Centre)

Higher core goods inflation is one of the main reasons why the headline rate of CPI inflation has exceeded economists' forecasts over the last few months.

2 Jan 2020 Structural Strengths Suggest Recession Risks Remain Low (Publication Centre)

The 2010s were the first decade since reliable records begin--in the 1700s--in which a recession was completely avoided

2 December. 2016 Sterling's Depreciation Has Not Been a Boon for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

The deterioration of the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in November should temper optimism about the potential benefits of sterling's depreciation. The PMI fell to 53.4 in November, from 54.2 in October.

19 September 2016 Construction Investment Will Boost EZ GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Construction data in the Eurozone usually don't attract much attention, but today's July report will provide encouraging news, compared with recent poor manufacturing data. We think construction output leapt 2.1% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 2.3%, from 0.7% in June. This strong start to the third quarter was due mainly to a jump in non-residential building activity in France and Germany.

19 Oct. 2015 Slowdown in Store as Fiscal Policy Tightens and Strong Pound Bites (Publication Centre)

A powerful cocktail of cheap money, labour and commodities, allowed to infuse by a hiatus in the government's austerity programme, has reinvigorated the U.K. economy over the last three years. But these supports are now weakening while new headwinds are emerging. The U.K. economy is heading for a pronounced slowdown, one that is under-appreciated by most forecasters and under-priced by markets.

2 May 2017 Can Sterling's Recovery Gather More Momentum? (Publication Centre)

Sterling continued to recover last week, hitting its highest level against the dollar since October, despite a series of data releases indicating that the economy is losing momentum. Indeed, sterling was unscathed by the news on Friday that quarter-on-quarter GDP growth slowed to just 0.3% in Q1, from 0.7% in Q4.

2 November 2018 The MPC will Hike Twice in 2019, Provided a Transition Deal is Secured (Publication Centre)

The MPC's "Super Thursday" communications left markets a little more confident that interest rates will rise again in May, shor tly after the likely start of the Brexit transition period.

20 April 2017 Don't Miss Today's Soaring Eurozone Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Markets tend to ignore Eurozone construction data, but we suspect today's report will be an exception to that rule. Our first chart shows that we're forecasting a 8.5% month-to-month leap in February EZ construction output, and we also expect an upward revision to January's numbers.

2 Sept 2019 Anti No-Deal MPs Likely will Prevail, Though the Timing is Tight this Week (Publication Centre)

We still think it is a question of when--not if-- MPs will be successful in taking a no -deal Brexit off the table.

11 December 2017 The EU and the U.K. Have a Deal, Now Comes the Difficult Bit (Publication Centre)

The 16-page document--see here--detailing the agreement allowing the EU and the U.K. to move forward in the Brexit negotiations is predictably tedious.

19 February 2019 A 2019 General Election No Longer is So Implausible (Publication Centre)

The decision by seven MPs to abandon Labour and set up a new centrist grouping--the Independent Group--will not have a significant impact on the outcome of parliamentary Brexit votes.

19 December 2017 House Prices Look Set Merely to Flatline in 2018 (Publication Centre)

House prices are on course to rise only by around 2% this year, the smallest increase for five years.

Samuel Tombs

Samuel Tombs has more than a decade of experience covering the U.K. economy for investors. At Pantheon, Samuel's research is rigorous, free of dogma and jargon, and unafraid to challenge consensus views. His work focuses on what matters to professional investors: The links between the real economy, monetary policy and asset prices. He has a strong track record of getting the big calls right. The Sunday Times ranked Samuel as the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in both 2014 and 2018. In addition, Bloomberg consistently has ranked Samuel as one of the top three U.K. forecasters, out of pool of 35 economists, throughout 2018 and 2019. His in-depth knowledge of market-moving data and his forensic forecasting approach explain why he consistently beats the consensus. Samuel's work on Brexit goes beyond simply reporting developments and is always analytical and unbiased, enabling investors to see through the noise of the daily headlines. While his analysis points to a particular path that politicians will take, he acknowledges the inherent uncertainty and draws out the economic and financial market implications of all plausible Brexit scenarios. Samuel holds an MSc in Economics from Birkbeck College, University of London and an undergraduate degree in History and Economics from the University of Oxford. Prior to joining Pantheon in 2015, he was Senior U.K. Economist at Capital Economics. In 2011, Samuel won the Society of Business Economists' prestigious Rybczynski Prize for an article on quantitative easing in the UK. He is based in London but frequently visits our other offices. Recent key calls include: 2018 - Correctly forecast that GDP growth would slow and inflation would undershoot the MPC's initial forecast, prompting the Committee to shock investors and almost other economists by waiting until August to raise Bank Rate, rather than pressing ahead in May. 2017 - Argued that the MPC was wrong to expect CPI inflation to stay below 3% following sterling's depreciation. He also highlighted that economic indicators pointed to the Conservatives losing their outright majority in the snap general election.

17 Dec. 2015 Why are Retail Sales Losing Momentum? (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, recent retail spending surveys have been puzzlingly weak in light of the pick-up in employment growth, still-robust real wage gains and renewed momentum in the housing market. We think those surveys are a genuine signal that retail sales growth is slowing, and expect today's official figures to surprise to the downside. But retail sales account for just one-third of household spending, and, in contrast to the early stages of the economic recovery, consumers now are prioritising spending on services rather than goods.

16 September 2016 Evidence of a Slowdown in EZ New Car Sales is Mounting (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data on EZ car sales added to the evidence that consumers' spending is slowing. We now reckon sales will rise by 1% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, after gains averaging 2.6% in the first half of the year.

16 Nov. 2015 Slightly Disappointing Q3 GDP Data Likely Enough for ECB Doves (Publication Centre)

Eurozone GDP data on Friday were better than we expected, but were still soft compared to upbeat market expectations. Real GDP rose 0.3% quarter-onquarter in the third quarter, down slightly from 0.4% in Q2, and lower than the consensus forecast for another 0.4% gain. These data are not a blank check for ECB doves, but they probably are enough to push through further easing in December. This looks odd given growth in the last four quarters of an annualised 1.6%--the strongest since 2011--and probably slightly above the long-run growth rate.

17 November. 2016 Will Europe Have to Increase Spending on Defence Soon? (Publication Centre)

The winds of global politics are changing, and the major Eurozone countries could be forced to take heed. Donald Trump's foreign policy position remains highly uncertain. Our Chief Economist, Ian Shepherdson, expects the U.S. to increase defence spending next year; see the U.S. Monitor of October 20.

18 Jan. 2016 Falling Energy Prices Won't Prevent Inflation Rising (Publication Centre)

December's consumer prices figures, released tomorrow, look set to show CPI inflation ticked up to 0.2% from 0.1% in November, despite the renewed collapse in oil prices. The further fall in energy prices this year means that the inflation print won't reach 1% until May's figures are published in June. But Governor Carney has emphasised that core price pressures will motivate the first rate hike--a focus he likely will reiterate in a speech on Tuesday-- meaning that a May lift-off is still on the table.

19 April 2017 Markets Overlook the Downside Risks from June's Snap Election (Publication Centre)

Prime Minister Theresa May's announcement that Parliament will vote today on holding a general election on June 8 shocked markets and even her own party's MPs. Betting markets were pricing in only a 20% chance of a 2017 election before yesterday's news.

19 April 2017 Another Political Hand Grenade is Thrown in European Politics (Publication Centre)

Economic news in Europe continues to take a back-seat to volatility in politics. Yesterday's announcement by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May that she is seeking a snap general election on June 8th cast further doubt over what exactly Brexit will look like.

18 January 2018 RPI Inflation Won't Continue to Diverge from CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

RPI inflation picked up to a six-year high of 4.1% in December, from 3.9% in November, even though CPI inflation fell to 3.0%, from 3.1%.

16 May 2017 Sterling and Elections: Evidence from the Past Five Decades (Publication Centre)

It's now four weeks since the Prime Minister called a snap general election, and the Conservatives still are riding high in the opinion polls. The average of the last 10 polls suggests that the Tories are on track to take 47% of the vote, well above Labour's 30%.

*May 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Recovery To Be Protracted, Despite Policymakers' Efforts...Consumers Will Be Cautious Long After The Lockdown Ends

*June 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The economy is struggling to rebound in Q2...an August rate hike is far from a done deal

*June 2017 - U.K. General Election Conference Call Charts* (Publication Centre)

U.K. Conference Call Charts - June 2017

*June 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Real wage falls are slowing the economy...Fears of rate hikes this year are overblown

*July 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Recovery Has Gathered Momentum Since Early June...But Falling Employment And Capex Rule Out A V-Shape

*June 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A no-deal brexit remains an unlikely outcome...An October extension will prodive a rate hike window

*June 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Recovery To Be Protracted, Despite Policymakers' Efforts...Falling Employment And Capex Will Limit The Rebound In H2

*March 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit risk currently is only depressing Capex....Rates need to rise to contain wage cost pressures

*March 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Markets think a May rate hike is almost certain...but activity and inflation data point to a delay

*March 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Consumers are buckling under high inflation...but the MPC won't add to their woes by hiking rates

*July 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Households' Spending Will Retain Momentum in H2...Another Brexit Extension Remains Likely in October

*July 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth won't accelerate until next year...but the MPC is set to hike rates in August anyway

*February 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A No-Deal Brexit Remains an Unlikely Outcome...Growth will Recover in H2, Facilitating Rate Hike

*February 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The MPC is mulling hiking rates again soon...but activity and inflation data imply no need to rush

20 Dec 2019 Next Stop for the BoJ, Increase Flexibility of the Framework (Publication Centre)

The BoJ held firm, for the most part, during this year's bout of central bank dovishness.

*February 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Post-Election Revival In GDP Growth Is On Track....But Brexit Costs Are Real; Expect A 2021 Slowdown

*Jan 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A consumer and investment slowdown beckons...Tighter macro policy will worsen the downturn

*July 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth is too slow to warrant a rate hike...domestically-generated inflation remain weak

*January 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Reviving Confidence Signals Faster GDP Growth....So The MPC Likely Will Keep Its Powder Dry

*January 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Soft Brexit Remains The Most Likely Outcome....So The MPC Soon Up The Pace Of Tightening

*March 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Two-Quarter Recession Now Is Unavoidable...Bolder Stimulus Is Needed To Secure A H2 Recovery

*May 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Rising Inflation has ended the consumer boom...Investment and Trade won't fill the void

08 Jan. 2016 Sterling, Not EM Weakness, Will Hold Exports Back (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor argued in a speech on Thursday that the U.K.'s economic recovery is threatened by a "dangerous cocktail" of overseas risks, including slowing growth in the BRICs--Brazil, Russia, India, and China--and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Exports are set to struggle this year, but the strong pound, not weakness in emerging markets, will be the main drag.

04 Feb. 2016 Inflation Report Unlikely to Support the Markets' Dovish Pricing (Publication Centre)

The recent slide in market interest rates suggests investors expect the Monetary Policy Committee--MPC--to strike a dovish note today, when the decision and minutes of this week's meeting are released and the Inflation Report is published, at 12.00 GMT.

*September 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

GDP Will Flatline In Q4, Still Well Below Its Peak...Fiscal Support Is Fading Fast; Monetary Stimulus Is Too Weak

*September 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

An election will not break the brexit deadlock...but the economy won't be weak enough for rate cuts

09 Feb. 2016 How Robust is the Case for Expecting Lower Rates? (Publication Centre)

Investors currently think that official interest rates are more likely to fall than rise this year. Overnight index swap markets are factoring in a 30% chance of a rate cut by December, but just a 1% chance of an increase by year-end. The case for expecting looser monetary policy, however, remains unconvincing.

1 Dec. 2015 The Real Net Trade Drag on U.K. Growth is Still to Come (Publication Centre)

It's tempting to conclude from the third quarter's GDP figures, which showed output rising 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, despite a record drag from net trade, that the U.K. economy is comfortably weathering sterling's appreciation. But a closer look at the data shows the net trade drag is the counterparty to some erratic inventory movements. The real net trade hit is still to come.

10 Nov. 2015 Trade Data Confirm Our Worst Fears for German Q3 GDP (Publication Centre)

German trade data yesterday added further evidence that net exports likely will wreak havoc with the Q3 GDP report this week. Exports rose 2.6% month-to-month in September, partially rebounding from a 5.2% plunge in August. But imports jumped 3.6%, further adding to the net trade drag on a quarterly basis. Our first chart shows our estimate of real net trade in Q3 as the worst since the collapse in 2008-to-09.

10 Dec. 2014 German Exports are Holding Up, But Greek Election Risks Loom (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing sector is showing signs of stabilisation with industrial production rising 0.2% month-on-month in October, equivalent to 0.8% year-over- year. This is consistent with a decent retracement in production this quarter, but growth is still only barely above zero.

10 August. 2016 Trade Data Show Depreciations Take Time to Boost Growth (Publication Centre)

June's trade figures yesterday highlighted that it takes more than just a few months for exchange rate depreciations to boost GDP growth. The trade-weighted sterling index dropped by 9% between November and June as the risk of Brexit loomed large and the prospect of imminent increases in interest rates receded.

*September 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The MPC is Back in "Wait and See" Mode...But Two Hikes Likely in 2019, Provided No-Deal Avoided

*September 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The MPC talks up raising bank rate soon...but weak wage growth likely will mean it hesitates

*Nov. 2016 - U.K.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Exports won't offset a Consumer Slowdown...Sterling decline has Constrained Policymakers

*May 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

No end to the brexit paralysis in sight...but growth will remain strong enough for rate hikes

*May 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A rise in inflation will support an August hike....the MPC likely will tighten at a faster rate next year

*November 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A year will pass before rates rise again...growth will slow and inflation will fall swiftly

*November 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Reviving Capex and Fiscal Policy to Lift Growth...Provided Parliament Averts a No-Deal Brexit

*October 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

An election is imminent; Parliament is gridlocked....But uncertainty has not hamstrung the economy

*October 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Rates On Hold Until After the Brexit Deadline...But Two Hikes Likely in 2019, When Capex Rebounds

*November 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Election Won't Lower Brexit Risks Much....But Fiscal Stimulus Will Stop The MPC Cutting Rates

10 October. 2016 The Sterling Crisis has Tied Policymakers' Hands (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s dependence on large inflows of external finance was laid alarmingly b are last week, when "hard" Brexit talk by politicians caused overseas investors to give sterling assets a wide berth. Investors now are demanding extra compensation for holding U.K. assets, because the medium-term outlook is so uncertain.

27 September 2018 Mortgage Lending will Keep Trending Down as Brexit Nears (Publication Centre)

August's mortgage lending data from the trade body U.K. Finance provided more evidence that the pick-up in housing market activity in Q2 simply reflected a shift from Q1 due to the disruptive weather, rather than the emergence of a sustainable upward trend.

30 September 2016 Britain is Turning to Debt to Maintain an Illusion of Prosperity (Publication Centre)

Today's balance of payments figures for the second quarter likely will underline that the U.K. has financed strong growth in domestic consumption by amassing debts with the rest of the world at a breakneck pace.

30 January 2018 Is Sterling's Strong Start to 2018 Warranted? (Publication Centre)

Sterling has begun this year on the front foot, rising last week to its highest level against the U.S. dollar since June 2016.

3 Oct 2019 Regional Polling Data Point to a Tory Majority, But The Race Will Narrow (Publication Centre)

We continue to expect a general election to be held in December.

3 May 2018 Can the Prime Minister Fight off the Brexiteers in her Party? (Publication Centre)

The pressure on Theresa May from Brexiteers within her own party intensified yesterday, when 60 Conservative MPs signed a letter arguing that they could not back a proposal for a "customs partnership".

31 Jan 2020 Lower Potential Growth Estimates Point to Further Passivity on the MPC (Publication Centre)

The MPC's decision yesterday was a "dovish hold", designed to keep market interest rates at current stimulative levels and to preserve the option of cutting Bank Rate swiftly and without surprise, if the economy fails to rebound in Q1.

31 July 2019 Rising Confidence Points to Solid Household Spending Ahead of Brexit (Publication Centre)

The further depreciation of sterling yesterday, to its lowest level against the dollar and euro since March 2017 and September 2017, respectively, signified deepening pessimism among investors about the chances of a no-deal Brexit.

6 Dec 2019 Only Limited Upside for Sterling in the Event of a Tory Election Win (Publication Centre)

For sterling traders, no election news is good news.

5 July. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Will Lose Out if the Brexit Fallout Increases (Publication Centre)

It will take months, and perhaps years, before markets have any clarity on the U.K.'s new relationship with the EU. In the U.K., the main parties remain shell-shocked. Both leading candidates for the Tory leadership, and, hence, the post of Prime Minister, have said that they would wait before triggering Article 50.

4 December 2017 Britain Will be Forever Stuck in the Brexit Departure Lounge (Publication Centre)

Sterling strengthened last week to its highest tradeweighted level since mid-May, amid hopes that the U.K. government will concede more ground to ensure that the European Council deems, at its December 14 meeting, that "sufficient progress" has been made in Brexit talks for trade discussions to begin

3 May 2017 April's Higher Manufacturing PMI Won't Be Sustained (Publication Centre)

The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI shot up to a three-year high of 57.3 in April, from 54.2 in March, bringing an end to the run of downbeat news on the economy. The performance of the U.K. manufacturing sector, however, remains underwhelming, given the magnitude of sterling's depreciation.

3 July 2018 It's Too Soon to Relax About the Current Account Deficit (Publication Centre)

Last week's balance of payments showed that the U.K. has made significant progress in reducing its reliance on overseas finance.

28 Oct 2019 Fernández Likely Won Argentina's Presidency, Brace for the Worst (Publication Centre)

Recent polls in Argentina suggest that Alberto Fernández, from the opposition platform Frente de Todos, has comfortably beaten Mauricio Macri, to become Argentina's president.

28 March 2019 Super Low Gilt Yields Aren't Warranted by the Economic Outlook (Publication Centre)

Gilt yields have tumbled, with the 10-year sliding to just 1.0%, from 1.2% a week ago.

28 March 2017 Could a Rebounding Eurozone Prevent a U.K. Slowdown? (Publication Centre)

Business surveys coming out of the Eurozone have been remarkably strong recently. The composite PMI for the Eurozone jumped to 56.7 in March--its highest level since April 2011--from 56.1 in February. Germany's IFO business climate index leaped to a 67-month high in March.

28 September. 2016 Narrow Money in the EZ points to Slower GDP Growth Next Year (Publication Centre)

Momentum in EZ money supply slipped marginally in September. Headline M3 growth slowed to 5.0%, from 5.1%, mainly due to a slowdown in narrow money. Overnight deposit growth slowed to 9.4%, from 9.9% in August, offsetting a slight rise in growth of currency in circulation.

29 November 2017 Stress Tests Give Banks the All-Clear but Profitability Concerns Remain (Publication Centre)

All seven of Britain's major banks passed the Bank of England's stress test this year, in the first clean sweep since the annual test began in 2014.

3 December 2018 March 29 Is Not an Immovable Deadline for Brexit (Publication Centre)

Both the E.U. and the U.K. government have been keen to emphasise, since the Withdrawal Agreement was provisionally signed off, that March 29 is a hard deadline for Brexit.

29 October 2018 Is the Only Way Up for Public Borrowing from Here? (Publication Centre)

Later today, the Chancellor likely will take the first step towards abandoning plans for further fiscal tightening. In

29 Oct 2019 The Mexican Economy Stagnated in Q3, Q4 Will be Slightly Better (Publication Centre)

While we were out, data released in Mexico added to our downbeat view of the economy in the near term, supporting our base case for interest rate cuts in the near future.

6 November 2018 Should the PMIs' Gloomy Prognosis be Trusted This Time? (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS services survey added to evidence that the economy has started Q4 on a very weak footing.

6 September. 2016 Too Soon to Breathe a Sigh of Relief on Recession Risk (Publication Centre)

The improvement in the August services PMI has generated hyperbolic headlines suggesting the U.K. is on a tear despite the Brexit vote. Taken literally, however, the PMIs suggest that the revival in business activity in August only partially reversed July's decline. Meanwhile, the impact of sterling's sharp depreciation on the purchasing power of firms and consumers has only just begun to be felt.

U.K. H1 2017 Outlook - High Inflation Will Cripple Consumers and Tie Policymakers' Hands (Publication Centre)

The adverse consequences of the Brexit vote will become painfully clear in 2017.....

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with the economy retaining momentum ahead of the Brexit deadline.

Asia Webinar - H2, 2018 (Publication Centre)

Monetary conditions point to a slowdown in Asia's two largest economies. Should we be worried?

U.K. H2 2019 Outlook - A no-deal Brexit remains unlikely - uncertainty alone won't cause the economy to stagnate (Publication Centre)

Our Brexit base case is that the new Prime Minister will request, and the E.U. will grant, another lengthy extension of the U.K.'s membership in October, thereby perpetuating damaging uncertainty, but avoiding the pain of no-deal.

U.K. Webinar - H2, 2018 (Publication Centre)

The MPC won't be passive next year...Brexit permitting

U.K. Webinar - Q1, 2019 (Publication Centre)

Will Brexit Puncture the MPC's Tightening Cycle?

U.K. Webinar - Q1, 2018 (Publication Centre)

Will Inflation force the MPC's hand this year?

U.K. Webinar - Oct 2017 (Publication Centre)

When Will U.K. Rates Rise?

9 September. 2016 iPhone Price Hike Underlines Incoming In ation Shock (Publication Centre)

The consequences of sterling's sharp depreciation for inflation were brought home yesterday by the news that the iPhone 7 will cost more than its predecessor. The entry-level version is priced at £60 more than its iPhone 6S equivalent. Of course, the new version is more advanced, but the fact that the dollar price held steady, at $649, demonstrates the U.K. price hike entirely is due to the adverse impact of the weaker pound.

9 Sept. 2015 Cyclical Recovery in the Eurozone Goes from Strength to Strength (Publication Centre)

Final Q2 GDP data yesterday indicate the euro area economy was stronger than initially estimated in the first half of the year. Real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, slightly higher than the initial estimate of 0.3, following an upwardly revised 0.5% increase in Q1. Upward revisions to GDP in Italy were the key driver of the more upbeat growth picture. The revisions mean that annualised Eurozone growth is now estimated at 1.8% in the first six months of the year, up from the previous 1.4%, consistent with the bullish message from real M1 growth and the composite PMI.

7 June. 2016 Are Eurozone Equity Markets Complacent About Brexit? (Publication Centre)

Recent polls in the U.K. have reminded markets that the vote is too close to call at this point, but investors in the Eurozone appear unfazed, so far. The headline Sentix index rose to 9.9 in June, from 6.2 in May, lifted by the expectations index, which increased to a six-month high of 10.0 from 5.5 in May.

7 Feb 2020 Are U.K. Equities Still Trading at a Big Brexit-related Discount? (Publication Centre)

The rally in U.K. equities immediately after the general election has done little to reverse the prolonged period of underperformance relative to overseas markets since the E.U. referendum in June 2016.

7 Dec. 2015 German Factory Orders are Slowing, Despite October's Jump (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing activity in Germany rebounded at the start of the fourth quarter, following a miserable Q3. New orders jumped 1.8% month-to-month in October, lifted by increases in consumer and capital goods orders, both domestic and export. But the year-over-year rate fell to -1.4%, from a revised -0.7% in September, due to unfavorable base effects, and the three-month trend remained below zero. Our first chart shows that non-Eurozone export orders are the key drag, with export orders to other euro area economies doing significantly better.

8 Apr 2020 February GDP Data to Show Little Pre-Virus Momentum (Publication Centre)

February's GDP report, released on Thursday, likely will show that the economy continued to struggle for momentum, despite the fillip to sentiment stemming from the general election.

8 August. 2016 The Term Funding Scheme is Not a Game-Changer (Publication Centre)

Economists failed to foresee the U.K.'s growth spurt in 2013 partly because they underestimated the positive impact of the Funding for Lending Scheme, launched in mid-2012. In fact, the FLS was so successful at stimulating mortgage lending that it had to be "refocussed" to apply solely to business lending in January 2014.

9 August. 2016 London Will Continue to Bear the Brunt of the Downturn (Publication Centre)

London has been the U.K.'s growth star for the last two decades. Between 1997 and 2014, yearover-year growth in nominal Gross Value Added averaged 5.4% in London, greatly exceeding the 4% rate across the rest of the country. Surveys since the referendum, however, indicate that the capital is at the sharp end of the post-referendum downturn.

9 Apr 2020 How Will the Government Navigate its Way out of the Lockdown? (Publication Centre)

The lockdown in Britain that began two-and-a half weeks ago is starting to stem the number of new infections.

8 Jan 2020 Higher Oil Prices won't Stop the Economy Recovering this Year (Publication Centre)

The $10 increase in the price of Brent crude oil over the last three months to $68 is an unhelpful, but manageable, drag on the U.K. economy's growth prospects this year.

28 August. 2015 Another Month, Another Bullish Money Supply Report in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply report provided further relief for investors doubtful over the cyclical recovery following the market turmoil. Broad money growth, M3, accelerated to 5.3% year-over-year in July, up from 4.9% in June, and within touching distance of a new post-crisis high. Narrow money continued to surge too, rising 12.1% year-over-year, up from 11.1% in June, sending a bullish message on the Eurozone economy.

*Feb 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Consumer slowdown is under way...Policymakers will not provide more stimulus

21 Sept. 2015 Fed Abstention Increases the Risk of More QE from the ECB this Year (Publication Centre)

ECB growth bears looking for the Fed to move in order to take the sting out of the euro's recent strength were disappointed last week. The FOMC refrained from a hike, referring to the risk that slowing growth in China and emerging markets could "restrain economic activity" and put "downward pressure on inflation in the near term." In doing so, the Fed had an eye on the same global risks as the ECB, highlighting increased fears of deflation risks in China, despite a rosier domestic outlook.

21 Oct 2019 No Lasting Relief for the Economy, if the New Brexit Deal Eventually Passes (Publication Centre)

The government now has a 50:50 chance of getting the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament in the coming weeks, despite Letwin's successful amendment and the extension request.

21 November 2017 Is Germany Headed for New Elections Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Political uncertainty in the Eurozone is the story that won't die. Coalition talks in Germany collapsed yesterday when the centre-right FDP walked out of the negotiations.

21 May 2019 The MPC Will Shun its Strategy of Waiting for Brexit Uncertainty to Fade (Publication Centre)

The chances of the first phase of the Brexit saga concluding soon declined sharply last week.

22 August 2017 Tourism is Key to Financial Stability in the Spanish Economy (Publication Centre)

Last week's attacks in Barcelona--one of Spain's most popular tourist spots--struck at the heart of one of the economy's main growth engines.

22 Feb. 2016 Can Extremely Low Gilt Yields Be Sustained? (Publication Centre)

Gilt yields slid to record lows at many maturities in mid-February, and while equity prices have since rebounded, gilt yields have remained anchored at rock-bottom levels. But with political risks rising and deficit reduction still very slow, gilt yields look primed to spring back soon.

23 February 2018 Even Q4's Modest GDP Growth Relied on Unsustainable Supports (Publication Centre)

U.K. activity data have consistently surprised to the downside over the last month.

23 Feb. 2016 Would the MPC Just Let Sterling Drop Like a Stone? (Publication Centre)

Sterling will be under the spotlight again today when four members of the Monetary Policy Committee, including Governor Mark Carney, answer questions from the Treasury Select Committee about the recent Inflation Report.

22 June 2017 Are we headed toward an extension of the U.K.'s EU membership? (Publication Centre)

The EU has had a better start to the Brexit negotiations than its counterpart across the Channel. The risk of disagreement within the EU on the details with of the U.K.'s exit is high, but the Continent has presented a united front so far, mainly because Mr. Macron and Mrs. Merkel agree on the broad objectives. They have no interest in punishing the U.K., but they are also keen to show that exiting the EU has costs for a country which leaves.

21 June. 2016 All Aboard for a Recovery in German Inflation Pressures (Publication Centre)

Producer prices in Germany rose 0.4% month-to-month in May, stronger than the consensus expectation of a 0.3% gain, and we think further upside surprises are likely in coming months. The headline was boosted by a 0.7% jump in energy prices, but food and manufacturing goods prices also rose.

21 July. 2015 The Eurozone is Adding to Global Current Account Imbalances (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's current account surplus plunged to €18.0B in May from €24.0B, the biggest monthly fall since July 2013, but an upward revision to the April data makes the headline look worse than it is. These numbers are volatile, even after seasonal adjustments, and revisions have been larger than normal this year, so we need to smooth the data to get the true story.

20 November 2018 The PM is Likely to Hang on, Even if a Confidence Vote is Triggered (Publication Centre)

As we write, 25 Conservative MPs have confirmed publicly that they have submitted no-confidence letters to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee. That's 23 short of the 48 required to trigger a leadership contest, though some MPs might have submitted letters without making it public.

20 Nov. 2015 EZ Current Account Surplus Goes from Strength to Strength (Publication Centre)

The current account surplus in the Eurozone is well on its way to stabilising above 3% of GDP this year. The seasonally adjusted surplus rose to €29.4B in September from a revised €18.7B in August, lifted by a higher trade surplus, thanks to rebounding German exports. The services balance was unchanged at €4.5B in September, while the primary income balance edged higher to €4.8B from €4.0B. The improving external balance has been driven mostly by a surging trade surplus with the U.S. and the U.K., as our first chart shows.

20 May. 2016 Let the Good Times Roll in EZ Corporate Bond Markets (Publication Centre)

Markets have responded strongly to the ECB's announcement that it will be buying corporate bonds as part of QE. Net corporate debt issuance of non-financial firms jumped €16B in March, the biggest monthly increase since January 2014. The 12-month average, however, was stable at €3.6B, and a sustained increase in net debt supply partly depends on firms' appetite for financial engineering

20 Oct. 2015 Inflation Rebound to Force MPC's Hand, Even if Recovery Slows (Publication Centre)

The consensus view on the Monetary Policy Committee, that it will take two years for CPI inflation to return to the 2% target, looks complacent. Leading indicators suggest that price pressures will return faster than both policymakers and markets expect. Interest rates are therefore likely to rise in the first half of 2016, even if the recovery loses momentum.

20 Oct. 2015 Slowdown in U.K. GDP Growth to Dent EZ Exports Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Our new Chief U.K. economist, Samuel Tombs, initiated his coverage yesterday with a sombre, non-consensus, message on the economy. Headwinds from fiscal tightening and net trade will weigh on GDP growth next year, but the BoE will likely have to look through such cyclical weakness, and hike as inflation creeps higher. An intensified drag from net trade in the U.K. will, other things equal, benefit the Eurozone. But a slowdown in U.K. GDP growth still poses a notable risk to euro area headline export growth, especially in the latter part of next year.

21 Jan 2020 The MPC Doesn't Always Deliver What Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

As we write, markets see a 70% chance that the MPC will cut Bank Rate on January 30.

21 Apr. 2016 All Eyes on the Details of QE and TLTROs in Today's ECB Meeting (Publication Centre)

The ECB will keep its refinancing and deposit rates unchanged today, at 0.0% and -0.4% respectively. We also think the pace of QE will be held at €80B per month. Attention will turn instead to the details and implementation of the measures unveiled last month. Corporate bonds will be added to QE at the end of the second quarter, and monthly purchases of about €5-to-€10B per month are a realistic assumption.

20 September 2016 The Recycling of the EZ's Current Account Surplus Continues (Publication Centre)

The external surplus in the EZ economy slipped in July. The seasonally-adjusted current account surplus dropped to €21.0B, from a revised €29.5B in June, hit by an increase in the current transfers deficit, and a falling trade surplus. The recent increase in the transfers deficit partly is due to the migrant deal with Turkey, and we expect it to remain elevated.

23 June. 2016 What Would Happen in the Eurozone if the U.K. Left the EU? (Publication Centre)

People across Europe are growing wary over the failure of governments to foster economic security since the 2008 crisis. Their conclusion increasingly is that the EU is to blame, so their support for EU-sceptic, and even right-wing nationalist, parties has increased accordingly.

23 May 2018 Through the Looking Glass With Eurozone R&D Investment Data (Publication Centre)

The EZ national accounts were updated and rebased in 2015--from ESA 1995 to ESA 2010--in the name of timeliness and precision.

25 June 2019 Markets Relatively High Inflation Expectations Aren't Warranted (Publication Centre)

Financial markets' inflation expectations have risen sharply since the spring. Our first chart shows that the two-year forward rate derived from RPI inflation swaps has picked up to 3.8%, from 3.5% at the end of April.

25 July 2019 A Recovery in Mortgage Lending is Taking Root (Publication Centre)

The recent pick-up in mortgage approvals is another sign that households are unperturbed by the risk of a no-deal Brexit.

25 Feb. 2016 Is Brexit as Likely as the Markets Seem to Think? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened further yesterday in response to the perception that the odds of the U.K. leaving the E.U. in the June referendum are rising. Cable fell to $1.39, its lowest level since March 2009. It is now $0.12 below the level one would anticipate from markets' expectations for short rates, as our chart of the week on page three shows.

24 Sept 2019 Is the Tories' True Poll Lead Massive or Minute? (Publication Centre)

Support for the Conservatives has shown no sign of flagging in recent weeks, despite the setbacks in the Commons earlier this month and the government's failure so far to secure a revised Brexit deal.

26 Feb. 2016 The Foundations of the U.K. Recovery are Remarkably Fragile (Publication Centre)

The preliminary estimate of a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter rise in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 was left unrevised, but that was the only nugge t of good news from yesterday's second GDP release. The expenditure breakdown hardly could have looked more troubling.

26 July 2017 China's Reform Scorecard Part 1: Labour Market and Demographics (Publication Centre)

Over the next 18 months we expect to see interest rates break out further on the upside. Initially, we expect developed market growth to be resilient to that.

27 Feb 2020 Treat Surveys Pointing to Stronger Growth in Capex With Scepticism (Publication Centre)

The stagnation in business investment since 2016 has been key to the slowdown in the overall economy since the E.U. referendum.

26 Oct. 2015 MPC Can't Wait too Long After the U.S. Fed Raises Rates (Publication Centre)

Markets currently judge that U.K. interest rates will rise about six months after the first Fed hike. But the Bank of England seldom lagged this far behind in the past. Admittedly, the slowdown in the domestic economy that we expect will require the Monetary Policy Committee to be cautious. But wage and exchange rate pressures are likely to mean six months is the maximum period the MPC can wait before following the Fed's lead.

26 March 2018 Market Sell-offs have Stayed the MPC's Hand Before, Why Not Again? (Publication Centre)

The MPC held back last week from decisively signalling that interest rates would rise when it meets next, in May.

24 October 2018 The Double-Digit Fall in Equity Prices Bolsters Case for MPC Inertia (Publication Centre)

The FTSE 100 has dropped by 7% since the end of September--leaving it on course for its worst month since May 2012--and now is 12% below its May peak.

24 Nov. 2015 Will Gilts Decouple as US Treasury Yields Rise? (Publication Centre)

A less rapid tightening of monetary policy in the U.K. than in the U.S. should ensure that gilt yields don't move in lockstep with U.S. Treasury yields over the coming years. But the outlook for monetary policy isn't the only influence on gilt yields. We expect low levels of market liquidity in the secondary market, high levels of gilt issuance and overseas concerns about the possibility of the U.K.'s exit from the E.U. to add to the upward pressure on gilt yields.

23 Sept. 2015 Slow Growth in China is a Risk, but Not the Whole Story in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Expectations that the ECB will respond to weakening growth in China with Additional stimulus mean that survey data will be under particular scrutiny this week. The consensus thinks the Chinese manufacturing PMI--released overnight--will remain weak, but advance PMIs in the Eurozone should confirm that the cyclical recovery remained firm in Q3. We think the composite PMI edged slightly lower to 54.0 in September from 54.3 in August, consistent with real GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3.

23 Sept 2019 Could a Tweaked Brexit Deal get Through the Commons? (Publication Centre)

Sterling rallied to $1.25 last week--its highest level against the dollar since Boris Johnson became PM in mid-July--amid growing speculation that a Brexit deal still was possible in the next couple of weeks, enabling the U.K. to leave the E.U. on October 31.

23 October 2018 Will Yields on Gilts Close the Gap with Treasuries? (Publication Centre)

The gap between U.K. and U.S. government bond yields has continued to grow this year and is approaching a record.

24 April 2017 Past Errors Mean Investors Should Treat the Latest Polls Cautiously (Publication Centre)

Sterling jumped last week to its highest level against the dollar since last October in response to news that a general election will be held on June 8. Markets are betting that the Conservative Government will sharply increase its majority, enabling Theresa May to ignore Eurosceptic backbenchers when she strikes a deal with the EU.

24 August. 2015 U.S and U.K. Demand, Not China, Drives the Eurozone Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

The sell-off in risky assets intensified while we were away, driven by China's decision to loosen its grip on the currency, and looming rate hikes in the U.S. The Chinese move partly shows, we think, the PBoC is uncomfortable pegging to a strengthening dollar amid the unwinding investment boom and weakness in manufacturing.

24 May 2019 Switching Our Brexit Base Case From Soft Departure to Paralysis (Publication Centre)

The chances of our Brexit base case--a soft departure just before the current October 31 deadline--playing out have declined sharply over the last two weeks.

24 June. 2016 Brexit Implications for the U.S: No Immediate Fed Easing (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s unexpected vote for Brexit means a stronger dollar for the foreseeable future, a sharp though likely containable drop in U.S. stock prices, and a further delay before the Fed next raises rates. The vote does not necessarily mean the U.K. actually will leave the EU, because the policy choices now facing leaders of Union have changed dramatically. An offer of substantial concessions on the migration issue--the single biggest driver of the Leave vote-- might be enough to trigger a second referendum, but this is a consideration for another day.

24 July 2020 U.K. Equities are Becoming Ever More Unloved, Chiefly Due to Brexit (Publication Centre)

U.K. equities are falling ever further out of favour.

20 February 2017 Should Sterling Investors Fear a Snap General Election? (Publication Centre)

Elections will be held on Thursday in two constituencies vacated recently by Labour MPs. Betting markets are pricing-in a 70% chance that the Conservatives will win the by-election in Copeland--even though they trailed Labour there by eight points in the general election in 2015--mainly because around 60% of Copeland's electorate voted to leave the EU last year.

17 January 2017 Will Policymakers Act to Stop Sterling Falling Further? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened further yesterday as anxiety grew that PM Theresa May will indicate she is seeking a "clean and hard Brexit" in a speech today. This could mean the U.K. leaves the EU's single market and customs union, in order to control immigration, shake off the jurisdiction of the European Court and have a free hand in trade negotiations with other countries.

*April 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Lockdown Is Working; It Will Be Eased In June...But GDP Won't Reach Pre-Virus Levels Until Late 2021

*August 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Sterling's fall is hurting more than it's helping...Slow GDP and wage growth will keep the MPC inactive

*April 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit Risk Currently Is Only Depressing Capex...Rates Will Rise Soon To Contain Wage Cost Pressures

*April 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

MPC to delay in May due to Q1 GDP and Inflation...Political risks will resurface later this year

*December 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Economy Will Start 2020 On A Stronger Note...But Brexit Headwinds Will Intensify In H2

*August 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

GDP growth won't accelerate until next year...Low inflation will ease pressure to hike rates again

*April 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Rising Inflation is Causing a Sharp Slowdown...Sterling's Depreciation has been Harmful so Far

*December 2018 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit Risk Increasingly is Hitting the Economy...But Above-Trend Growth Awaits After a Deal is Done

*August 2019 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

GDP Growth will revive in Q3; The MPC won't ease...MPs will block a no-deal Brexit again in October

*December 2017 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Brexit and fiscal headwinds have lessended...but consumers' spending will struggle in 2018

*Dec. 2016 - U.K.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Consumer and Investment Slowdown Beckons......Tighter Macro Policy will worsen the downturn

*August 2020 - U.K. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Recovery Will Lose Momentum In The Autumn...As Employment And Capex Fall And Fiscal Support Fades

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still consistent with a consumer recovery in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: On course for a 15-to-20% shortfall in car sales in H2.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Signs of moderate growth unlikely to tip the balance on the MPC.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still hit be regulatory changes; demand should stabilise in 2020.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mixed messages.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mildly encouraging, though the survey has stopped being a bellwether.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another positive sign, though the survey is not a precise guide to the PMI.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Brace for a year-long slump in sales.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with falling manufacturing output and a small drop in the PMI.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ending the year on a very weak note.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Only a marginal improvement; June will be the real test of consumer demand.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: A pre-shutdown snapshot; unprecedented falls in sales lie ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. Budget (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not holding back.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Back to pre-Covid levels, but not for long.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A hefty rebound, with a further recovery to come in June.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with a big rebound in the official data.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovering pre-virus.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pointing to a rebound in the official data in December, though Q4 trading was subdued overall.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Depressed by its exclusion of Black Friday this year.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Understating the recovery, due to its poor construction.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A recovery should emerge soon.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The post-election recovery in confidence should support car sales soon.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovering consumer confidence should stabilise car sales in 2020.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stalled; expect a slow restart.

UK Datanote: U.K. Car Registrations, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pent-up demand is starting to be released, but the underlying picture remains weak.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Marginal decline a prelude to a big drop ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Indicative of confidence recovering, if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed quickly.

UK Datanote U.K. GDP and Trade, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still well below pre-Covid levels, despite few restrictions remaining in place.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still at rock bottom, but other indicators suggest a gradual recovery is under way.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Small fall should not bring any comfort.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovering, tentatively.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Reassuringly solid, given virus and weather headwinds.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong enough for the MPC to keep rates on hold next week.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with falling GDP, though it has been too downbeat repeatedly this year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Don't take the sub-50 reading literally; output likely is recovering in May, albeit sluggishly.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Record low level signals a very deep recession.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid progress, though the last miles of this marathon recovery will be the hardest.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovering, albeit more tentatively than other survey indicators.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Confidence continuing to recover.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Driven lower by the volatile airline fares and hotels components; expect a rebound in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A huge decline, but timelier data point to a tentative recovery in May.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A big leap towards zero by the summer.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Survey's poor construction means it is always too gloomy at the start of recoveries.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably understating the coronavirus hit.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising services inflation strengthens the case against a rate cut.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pick-up driven by volatile computer game prices; the headline rate has further to fall.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with negligible GDP growth in Q4.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pointing to zero CPI inflation by the summer.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Low inflation entirely due to non-core components.

UK Datanote: U.K. Consumer Prices, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still on track for a near-zero rate in Q3.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Continued weakness reflects the survey's construction and timing.

DUKASCOPY TV - Claus Vistesen discussing how the ECB will respond to missed IMF payment (Media Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discusses how the ECB will respond to the missed IMF payment yesterday.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Old news.

UK Datanote U.K. Car Registrations, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strength reflects the release of pent-up demand, which soon will be sated.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Understating the upswing in output.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still understating the manufacturing sector's recovery.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The manufacturing recovery is slowing, not unraveling.

UK Datanote U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another strong month.

UK Datanote U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The door remains open to a QE extension in Q4, despite recent data strength.

UK Datanote EU Special European Council, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The EU digs in, and comes up with a response.

UK Datanote MPC Decision, Minutes & Inflation Report, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still committed to rate hikes, but not willing to pull the trigger just yet.

UK Datanote U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still benefiting from the release of pent-up demand and a decline in overseas travel.

UK Datanote U.K. BRC Retail Sales Monitor, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Continued strength not indicative of households' overall spending.

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Other data likely are providing a more accurate signal.

UK Datanote U.K. Consumer Prices, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The headline rate will remain sub-1% in the remainder of this year.

UK Datanote U.K. Flash PMIs, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A jobless recovery can only go so far.

UK Datanote U.K. Economic Sentiment, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with a brutal period of layoffs ahead.

UK Datanote U.K. Flash PMIs, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Activity is rebounding, but employment still is falling rapidly.

UK Datanote U.K. Flash PMIs, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slowing; Eurozone data suggest stagnation is to come.

UK Datanote U.K. GDP and Trade, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The way back will be much slower than the descent.

UK Datanote U.K. GDP and Trade, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Growth momentum will peter out in the autumn.

UK Datanote U.K. Labour Market Data, July and August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sampling issues have disfigured the LFS data; a sharp downturn remains in motion.

UK Datanote U.K. Consumer Prices, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The end of imputation reveals significant inflation.

UK Datanote U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the upbeat projections; the MPC still has an easing bias.

UK Datanote U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A jobless recovery can only extend so far.

UK Datanote U.K. Labour Market Data, June and July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The pace of deterioration will quicken imminently.

UK 15 May 2020 Housing Market Activity Won't Return to Pre-Virus Levels this Year (Publication Centre)

April's RICS Residential Market survey confirmed that housing market activity collapsed to negligible levels during the lockdown, which prohibited property viewings, depleted the work forces of lenders and prompted many people to defer big financial decisions.

8 January 2019 Expect to See a Real but Lukewarm Q4 GDP Recovery in Japan (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Nikkei services PMI report completed Japan's set of surveys for the fourth quarter of 2018.

04 October. 2016 The August ISM Plunge was a Fluke, After all, What Happens Next? (Publication Centre)

The substantial, though incomplete, rebound in the September ISM manufacturing survey is consistent with our view that the outlook for the industrial economy right now is better than at any time since before the crash in oil prices

UK Datanote: MPC Decision and Minutes, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Nothing new, but not out of ammo either.

14 March 2018 Mean Reversion in the CPI Confirms January's Core Jump was a Fluke (Publication Centre)

A significant minority of investors were betting on a repeat of January's outsized 0.349% increase in the core, judging from the immediate market reaction to the release of the February CPI report.

UK Datanote: Markit CIPS Construction Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Overall stagnation masks sub-sector divergence.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A big improvement in business confidence, albeit from a very depressed level.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP & Trade, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No V-shaped recovery here.

Dukascopy TV - ECB "Will have more easing" (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing key current economic issues

NY Times - UK Inflation Bolsters View Central Bank Will Not Cut Rates (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

New York Times - UK Retailers Report Smaller Drop in Annual Sales in May (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K Retail Sales in May

Financial Times - UK retail sales weak before coronavirus lockdown (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in February

FINANCIAL TIMES - Eurozone industrial output drops in month after UK's Brexit vote (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Industrial Production

UK Datanote U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lenders likely won't facilitate a lasting surge in sales.

UK Datanote U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Higher mortgage rates will stifle the market before long.

UK Datanote U.K. Official House Price Index, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still reflecting the pre-Covid world.

UK Datanote U.K. Nationwide House Prices, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Pent-up demand temporary supports prices; the trend still is downward.

3 June 2020 Global Monitor Are negative rates coming to the UK? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - A squeeze on wages will keep a lid on inflation • EUROZONE - EZ consumption is collapsing, but M1 is soaring • U.K. - No negative rates in the U.K., but we expect a boost to the TFSME • ASIA - China's industrial sector is still wobbling • LATAM - The Brazilian economy is in a world of pain

6 Jan 2020 China's Hukou Reforms, Useful but no Substitute for Looser Money (Publication Centre)

Late last year, China said it would scrap residency restrictions for cities with populations less than three million, while the rules for those of three-to-five million will be relaxed.

UK Datanote U.K. Official House Price Index, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Falling employment and rising mortgage rates spell falling prices soon.

UK Datanote U.K. Public Finances, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Borrowing on course to decline sharply as fiscal support fades.

UK Datanote U.K. Retail Sales, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The V-shaped retail sales recovery is unrepresentative of overall spending.

UK Datanote U.K. Retail Sales, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably this year's peak.

UK Datanote U.K. Retail Sales, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: As good as it will get for retailers this year.

UK Datanote U.K. Public Finances, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Borrowing still set to total about 17% of GDP this year, despite the declining monthly trend.

UK Datanote: U.K. BoE Stimulus Measures (Publication Centre)

In one line: Going big and early.

UK Datanote: U.K. Flash PMIs, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still excessively depressed by political uncertainty.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Benefiting from demand displaced by the lockdown.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Full steam ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surveyors expect prices to plunge, though lasting damage isn't inevitable.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The bounce in buyer interest will fade soon.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with a post-election recovery in activity and prices.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong, at least before the virus hit.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: House price gains are set to strengthen.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Snapping back after political-related weakness in Q4.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Benefiting from a reallocation of services spending; the overall consumer picture remains bleak.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably distorted by the exclusion of Black Friday, despite the statisticians' best efforts.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: April's total halt in activity will be followed by an incomplete recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. RICS Residential Market Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising mortgage rates will bring the market back down to earth.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP & Trade, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: No momentum at all before the virus.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision and Minutes, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The pace of QE is set to fade sharply.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision, Minutes & Monetary Policy Report, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: No changes for now, but more QE likely is coming in June.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Decision & Minutes, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Keeping faith in a pick-up in GDP growth next year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Beset by political uncertainty; expect a rebound in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. Trade, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Renewed stockpiling to blame for the larger deficit.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC meeting, March 19 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A huge QE authorisation; markets are right to welcome the news.

UK Datanote: U.K. Summer Statement 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not enough to underpin a V-shaped recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. Trade, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Distorted by precious metals; underlying performance still poor.

UK Datanote: U.K. Trade, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Imports still weak, as firms continue to run down precautionary Brexit stockpiles.

UK Datanote: U.K. Trade, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Trade surpluses won't be the norm.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Flagging even before the virus hit.

UK Datanote: U.K. MPC Minutes of March 10 meeting (Publication Centre)

In one line: No qualms about easing again; look for another cut on March 26.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Starting to shift down; weak confidence points to further falls.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stimulus from lower mortgage rates is starting to filter through.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence of a strong pre-virus recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another positive housing market signal.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Expect the market to continue to strengthen.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Further evidence that the housing market already had regained momentum before the election.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weakness reflects pre-election nerves; Covid-19, however, has re-written the post-election script.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weighed down by political uncertainty.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lower mortgage rates are working their magic.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, March 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: London prices had begun to outperform before the virus shock.

UK Datanote: U.K. Official House Price Index, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still reflecting market conditions only immediately after the lockdown ended.

UK Datanote: U.K. Nationwide House Prices, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery primarily driven by lower mortgage rates.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts, Q3, New Governor Announcement (Publication Centre)

In one line: Upward revision shows GDP growth is only just below its trend.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Borrowing undershooting the plans; scope for modest fiscal stimulus next year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Huge demand for cash will ease over the coming months.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downward revisions soften the blow from October's data.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A collapse that reverses nearly 15 years of growth.

UK Datanote: U.K. Retail Sales, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Shockingly weak, leaving the MPC's January meeting now finely balanced.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Full-year borrowing remains on course to undershoot the OBR's forecast.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts and Balance of Payments, Q1 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The biggest contraction for 40 years, even though Q1 contained just nine lockdown days.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts and Balance of Payments, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A jump in households' saving slowed the economy in Q4.

UK Datanote: U.K. National Accounts and Balance of Payments, Q2 Nationwide House Prices, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still faring worse than other advanced economies, despite the upward revision to GDP.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still no sign of a slowdown in tax receipt data.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: All was well before COVID-19, but a huge jump in borrowing lies ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. Mortgage Approvals, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Recovery simply reflecting lower mortgage rates; the election boost lies ahead.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money Supply Data, March, and Nationwide House Prices, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Cash positions were built up rapidly heading into the crisis.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by election-related indecision in the public sector; expect a recovery 2020.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: The election has given housebuilding a new lease of life.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A total collapse.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not subdued enough for the MPC to ease.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Strong enough to make the doves pause for thought.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: A big step in the right direction.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A logical rebound, but builders are bracing for an incomplete recovery.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Higher mortgage rates cast a shadow over the strong recovery in housebuilding.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still weighed down by Brexit uncertainty, but next year should be better.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Starting to recover, but facing a long uphill journey.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Collapsing, despite no mandatory closures of construction sites.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, May and June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A brutal period of layoffs is only starting.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, March and April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Ignore the headline numbers; claimant count and vacancy data show the Covid-19 pain.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: The MPC will see through November's weak print.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downside surprise all due to erratic construction output; the services sector still is coping well.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still stagnant after the election, despite the recovery in business confidence.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, December & Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hampered by political uncertainty; clear scope for a Q1 rebound.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP & Trade, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Paying the price for the slow decline in Covid-19 infections from April's peak.

UK Datanote: U.K. General Election Exit Poll (Publication Centre)

In one line: Error would have to be unprecedented for the Tories not to win a majority.

UK Datanote: U.K. General Election Result (Publication Centre)

In one line: The economy now has a brief window to recover, before the end-2020 Brexit deadline looms large.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: All was fine before the virus hit, though the election was not a game-changer for labour demand.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recent slowdown in wage growth likely won't last.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, August and September 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Damage from Covid-19 much clearer, following revisions.

UK Datanote: U.K. Labour Market Data, April, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: In suspended animation due to the CJRS; the true damage from COVID-19 will emerge in the autumn.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, April, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: An unprecedented collapse.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, December, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Year-end struggles should give way to stabilisation in Q1.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Credit growth is picking up; no need for even lower rates.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Accumulated savings will be hoarded for now, not spent.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: The wall of cash should limit near-term corporate insolvencies.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, November, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably still misleadingly weak.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, May 2020, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sluggish recovery in activity and falling inflation point to more QE this month.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surging borrowing has held back corporate collapses, for now.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money & Credit, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with GDP growth picking up this year.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Improving monetary trends suggest recession risk remains low.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mortgage approvals won't be sustained at August's level for long.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit data, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Households' cash holdings rose at a healthy rate pre-virus.

UK Datanote: U.K. Money + Credit data, January, and BoE statement (Publication Centre)

In one line: MPC easing now likely, but expect a more timid response than from other central banks.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, March, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Horrendous, and probably not reflecting the full devastation.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A Pretty Meaningless Indicator right now.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, March, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Understating the slump in production now underway.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, May, Final 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A long way from normal, but moving in the right direction.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, June, Final 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery will lose momentum before long.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, January, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: A glimmer of light between the storm clouds.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, February, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Supply chain disruptions to depress output in the spring.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, November, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Destocking is driving the renewed slowdown.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Manufacturing PMI, September, Final 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Output is nearly back to pre-Covid levels, but it will slip back once backlogs have been cleared.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, January, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with Q1 GDP growth exceeding the MPC's forecast.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, February, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Cut-off for the survey too early to give a steer on the virus hit to domestic demand.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, December, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consistent with an immediate pick-up in activity after the election.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Services Survey, April, Final (Publication Centre)

In one line: A total collapse in April, but tentative signs of recovery in other timelier data.

UK Datanote: U.K. Public Finances, April 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: More QE needed to facilitate record-high borrowing.

13 February 2018 Are the Good Times over For EZ Bond and Equity Investors? (Publication Centre)

Storm clouds gathered over Eurozone financial markets last week. The sell-off in equities accelerated, pushing the MSCI EU ex-UK to an 11-month low.

23 May 2017 How to Lift French GDP Growth to Above 1.5% Year-over-year (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the French economy since the sovereign debt crisis has been lukewarm. Growth in domestic demand, excluding inventories, has averaged 0.4% quarter-on-quarter since 2012. This comp ares with 0.8%-to-1.1% in the two major business cycle upturns in the 1990s and from 2000s before the crisis.

22 August. 2016 Will Inflation be the Dog That Doesn't Bark, Again? (Publication Centre)

The period of surprisingly low inflation following sterling's plunge when the UK left the Exchange Rate Mechanism in September 1992 appears to challenge our view that inflation will overshoot the MPC's 2% target over the next couple of years. As our first chart shows, CPI inflation averaged just 2.5% in 1993 and 2% in 1994, even though trade-weighted sterling plunged by 15% and import prices surged.

24 July 2018 Sterling has Plenty of Scope to Rise in a Soft Brexit Scenario (Publication Centre)

Sterling depreciated further last week as the Prime Minister's Brexit plans were tweaked by Brexiteers and given a lukewarm reception by the European Commission.

25 Jan. 2016 PMIs Point to Stable GDP Growth, Despite Disappointing Dip (Publication Centre)

Advance PMI data indicate a slow start to the first quarter for the Eurozone economy. The composite index fell to 53.5 in January from 54.3 in December, due to weakness in both services and manufacturing. The correlation between month-to-month changes in the PMI and MSCI EU ex-UK is a decent 0.4, and we can't rule out the ide a that the horrible equity market performance has dented sentiment. The sudden swoon in markets, however, has also led to fears of an imminent recession. But it would be a major overreaction to extrapolate three weeks' worth of price action in equities to the real economy.

28 Apr. 2015 Too Far, Too Fast For Eurozone Equity Markets since October? (Publication Centre)

QE and a gradually strengthening economy will remain positive catalysts for equities in the euro area this year. But with the MSCI EU ex -UK up almost 24% in the first quarter, the best quarterly performance since Q4 1999, the question is whether the good news has already been priced in.

20 June. 2016 Will EZ Equity Inflows Rebound Again in this Business Cycle? (Publication Centre)

A year can make a big difference for the equity market. At this point last year, holders of the MSCI EU ex-UK were looking at a meaty gain of 21% year-to-date. The corresponding number this year is a sobering -12%. This is a remarkable shift, given stable GDP growth, close to cyclical highs, and additional easing by the ECB.

14 Dec. 2015 Can Eurozone Equities Withstand Global Headwinds Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Barring a gigantic shock from the Fed this week--we expect a 25bp hike--Eurozone equities will end the year with a solid return for investors, who have been overweight. Total return of the MSCI EU ex-UK should come in around 10%, which compares to a likely flat return for the MSCI World, reflecting the boost from the ECB's QE driving out performance. Our first chart shows the index has been mainly lifted by consumer sector, healthcare and IT stocks, comfortably making up for weakness in materials and energy. The year has been a story of two halves, however, and global headwinds have intensified since the summer, partly offsetting the surge in the Q1 as markets celebrated the arrival of QE and negative interest rates.

03 October. 2016 ISM Unlikely to Rebound Much, but Manufacturing is Not Shrinking (Publication Centre)

Today's September ISM manufacturing survey is one of the most keenly-awaited for some time. Was the unexpected plunge in August a one-time fluke--perhaps due to sampling error, or a temporary reaction to the Gulf Coast floods, or Brexit--or was it evidence of a more sustained downshift, possibly triggered by political uncertainty?

1 October 2018 The 14-year High in the ISM Likely Can't Hold, Expect a Correction (Publication Centre)

The case for believing that August's unexpected 14-year high in the ISM manufacturing index was a fluke is pretty straightforward, and it has both short and medium-term elements.

11 Dec. 2015 The MPC is Independent, But it Cannot Ignore Other Central Banks (Publication Centre)

The MPC's asserted its independence in the minutes of December's meeting, firmly stating that there is "no mechanical link between UK policy and those of other central banks". Markets have interpreted this as supporting their view that the MPC won't be rushed into raising interest rates by the Fed's actions. Investors now expect a nine-month gap between the Fed hike we anticipate next week, and the first move in the U.K.

12 January 2017 Eurozone Equities in 2017: Another Year of Dashed Hopes? (Publication Centre)

A strong December didn't change the story of another year of Eurozone equity underperformance in 2016. The total return of the MSCI EU, ex-UK, last year was a paltry 3.5%, compared to 11.6% and 10.6% for the S&P 500 and MSCI EM respectively. In principle, the conditions are in place for a reversal in this sluggish performance are present. Equities in the euro area do best when excess liquidity--defined as M1 growth less GDP growth and inflation--is rising.

28 November 2017 The EZ Economy Won't Tell us What Happens Next in Equities (Publication Centre)

This year has been a story of two halves for EZ equities. The MSCI EU ex-UK jumped 11% in the first five months of 2017, but has since struggled to push higher.

28 Sept 2020 Korea's Second Wave is Almost Over, but the Hit will Bleed into Q4 (Publication Centre)

Consumer confidence in Korea plummeted in September for the first time since its first wave of Covid-19 earlier this year, in line with our view that the August increase was a fluke.

H2 2017 Asia Outlook - Higher Global Rates Depress China but Stimulate Japan, for now (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Sentiment, Germany, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lukewarm ... but still consistent with decent growth in spending.

H2 2017 Eurozone Outlook - The Eurozone Economy is Doing Well, but Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

H2 2017 LatAM Outlook - Monetary Policy Easing Continues, Offsetting Political Risk (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

H2 2017 U.S. Outlook - Brace for a Sustained Shift in Interest Rate Expectations (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 21 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better weekend U.S. data were no fluke; cases are peaking

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16th October 2020 (Publication Centre)

The sheen is taken off Korea's fluky August jobs report.

5 Oct. 2015 Bravery will be Rewarded on Eurozone Equities in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Headwinds from global growth fears have weighed on Eurozone equities in recent months, leaving the benchmark MSCI EU ex-UK index with a paltry year-to-date return ex-dividends of 1.7%. We think bravery will be rewarded, though, and see strong performance in the next six months. Equities in Europe do best when excess liquidity --M1 growth in excess of inflation and nominal GDP growth--is high.

8 Jan 2020 Global Monitor A more positive start to the year in LatAm? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Markets now await Iran's inevitable response • EUROZONE - Still soft, but also stabilising, EZ PMIs • U.K. - Strong balance sheets means that recessions risks are remote • ASIA - Useful Chinese Hukou reforms, but looser financial conditions are still needed • LATAM - The outlook is improving in LatAm as trade tensions ease

9 July. 2015 Steep Wall of Worry in EZ Equities, But Macro Indicators Say "Buy" (Publication Centre)

Bond market volatility and political turmoil in Greece have been the key drivers of an abysmal second quarter for Eurozone equities. Recent panic in Chinese markets has further increased the pressure, adding to the wall of worry for investors. A correction in stocks is not alarming, though, following the surge in Q1 from the lows in October. The total return-- year-to-date in euros--for the benchmark MSCI EU ex-UK index remains a respectable 11.4%.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 13 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Evidence continues to build that Korea's August unemployment plunge was a fluke. October sales tax hike in Japan opens the door for a quicker exit from PPI deflation.

9 May. 2016 Payrolls Will Rebound--Maybe not in May--and Wages Are Rising (Publication Centre)

The undershoot in April payrolls, relative to the consensus, is a story of a fluke number in just one sector. Retail payrolls reportedly shrank by 3K, after rising by an average of 52K over the previous six months. Our first chart shows clearly that the retail payrolls are quite volatile over short periods, with sudden and often inexplicable swings in both directions quite common.

BBC - Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Growth slowdown (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs Discussing the UK Growth Slowdown

*September 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Harvey and Irma will shred late q3/q4 data... ...if the fed doesn't hike in December, they will in march

*March 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Powell is a growth bull, not an inflation hawk...Interest rate risk is greater for 2019 than 2018

*March 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

"Cross-Currents" Will Keep the Fed Safe For Now....But The Headwinds Already Are Starting To Ease

*June 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The fed is in a double bind: what to expect, and what to do

*June 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

"Gradual" normalization continues, for now...No fourth dot until September

*June 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Payroll "Slowdown" Won't Last... The Fed Will Hike This Month, and Again Later This Year

*May 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Don't be distracted by weak first quarter GDP...The Fed doesn't care (much)

*May 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The cycle is peaking as higher rates begin to bite...but the next downturn is still some way off

*October 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Yellen's inner hawk escapes...Expect a December hike, and four more next year

*October 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

A Serious Slowdown is Still Some Way Off...So the Fed has to Keep Turning the Screws

*November 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth Has Peaked as the Tax Cut Boost Fades...But the Labor Market is Keeping the Fed on Track

*November 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Sub -4% Unemployment is coming, and soon...How will the Fed respond?

*May 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Q1 Growth Is Unsustainable...But The Labor Market Will Continue To Tighten

*July 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Fed hawks are in the ascendancy,..but they won't be fully in charge until next year

*July 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed plans to keep on hiking...falling unemployment is the key, not the softer CPI

*August 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Fed tightening is deferred, not cancelled...Expected a December hike after robust fall data

*August 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The fed will keep hiking each quarter...they are chasing unemployment, not inflation

*April 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Don't be Deceived by the Consumer Slowdown...It's a One-Time Transition to Sustainability

*April 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Trade talk and falling stocks are hurting...but the fed is still on course for four hikes this year

*April 2017 - U.S.. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Tightening Labor Market is all that Matters...Expect the Fed to Hike at Each Quarter-End

*December 2017 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Growth, inflation to challenge the Fed in 2018...faster wage growth will push them too

*December 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Slowdown Story is Overdone...If a China Deal is Done, the Fed Will Keep Hiking

*January 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Slower Growth This Year Is Invevitable...But That Doesn't Make Zero Hikes Inevitable Too

*January 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Strong growth, rising inflation greet Powel...but is productivity growth finally picking up?

*February 2019 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed Is All-In On The Slowdown Story...But They're Playing With Fire In The Labor Market

*February 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Has the wages dam finally burst? If it hasn't, it will soon

25 Nov. 2015 Privatisations Conceal Underlying Health of Public Finances (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor is likely to announce plans for additional public sector asset sales in today's Autumn Statement, to help arrest the unanticipated rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio this year. But privatisations rarely improve the underlying health of the public finances, partly because assets seldom are sold for their full value. And the Chancellor is running out of viable assets to privatise; the low-hanging, juiciest fruits have already been plucked.

*September 2018 - U.S. Economic Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Fed is Not Nearly Done...Real Rates are Still Far Too Low; No Slowdown in Sight

Sunday Times - Pound's fall 'the worst devaluation in history' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the devaluation of the GBP

TELEGRAPH - 'Robust' house price growth fuelled by buy-to-let and low supply (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Nationwide House Prices

Sunday Times - David Smith: Forecasters were too upbeat on growth in 2019 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs ranked as one of the top U.K. Economic Forecasters in 2019

Reuters. - U.K. house prices fall for second month in January (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. house prices

TELEGRAPH - Blistering US spending growth puts Fed on track for September rate hike (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on US Consumer Spending

TELEGRAPH - Building sector slows down and could even fall into recession (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Construction

Telegraph - House price growth jumps to highest since March despite weaker market post-Brexit vote (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Halifax House Price Index in December

TELEGRAPH - House prices soar, fuelled by sky-high rises in London flats - but uncertainty lies ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

TELEGRAPH - Eurozone's central bankers consider letting inflation run hot (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the Eurozone Inflation

TELEGRAPH - Eurozone stuck in deflation for fourth straight month (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone deflation

Telegraph - Eurozone slowdown gathers pace after Italy budget upset (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone Growth

BUSINESS INSIDER - Retail sales tank....then again, the weather was terrible (Media Centre)

Chief US Economist Ian Shepherdson attributes bad weather to February US Retail Sales

Reuters - British economy on track for biggest contraction 'in living memory' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

BBC NEWS - Warm weather lifts retail sales in July (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in July

Business Insider U.K. - The best of 2018 may already be over for the pound (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing sterling in 2018

Business Insider - The Tories might not get the crushing victory they expect in this election (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the General Election in June

BUSINESS INSIDER - The idea that Brexit isn't totally screwing the economy is 'baloney' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the impact of the Referendum

Business Insider - The only analyst who called the June 8 election correctly now says there is 'clear evidence that the Brexit vote has been bad for the economy' (Media Centre)

A look back on Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Toombs' predictions ahead of the U.K. General Election

Business Insider - The pound's general election jump faces a 'swift reversal' as reality takes hold (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing the effect the general election will have on the pound,

REUTERS - U.S. factory activity growing at weakest pace since 2016 (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Manufacturing Activity

Telegraph - Tax hikes add to inflation pressure (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation

BUSINESS INSIDER - New home sales crush expectations (Media Centre)

Chief US Economist Ian Shepherdson on "Remarkable" New Home Sales Data for February

U.K. Webinar December 2019: How will the general election affect markets, Brexit and the MPC? (Media Centre)

With just one week to go, our Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs will assess the likelihood of potential general election outcomes and their implications for financial market, Brexit and monetary policy

U.K. Webinar July 2020: How Long Will The MPC Keep Its Foot On The Gas? (Media Centre)

How Long Will The MPC Keep Its Foot On The Gas?

The Times - Trade war hits US growth as Trump renews attack on Federal Reserve (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. Trade War with China

The Times - Shock deterioration in building sector knocks sterling (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Construction in June

The Times - Services sector enjoys Boris bounce (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. PMIs in December

BUSINESS INSIDER - Homebuilder sentiment dropped in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on NAHB

BUSINESS INSIDER - Consumer confidence spikes in June (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on June Consumer Confidence data

BUSINESS INSIDER - Brits are hoarding cash post-Brexit -- and it's a 'worrying signal' for the economy (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Money Supply

BUSINESS INSIDER - ECONOMIST: 'The wage number is wrong, payrolls are strong.' (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Employment

BUSINESS INSIDER - Europe's Largest Economy Is Officially In Deflation (Media Centre)

Germany's consumer price index fell 0.3% month-over-month in January. It's the first time the inflation rate went negative since September 2009. "Deflation has arrived," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Claus Vistesen said

BUSINESS INSIDER - Germany's ballooning trade surplus just hit a new record size (Media Centre)

Germany's exporters just broke another record: The trade surplus for Europe's biggest economy is now at its highest on record.........Here's how Germany's recent export history looks, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics

The Times - Japan slides towards recession after typhoon (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on Japan's economy

The Times - Economists raise forecasts of impact on global economy (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on China and the Coronavirus

Business Insider - London's house prices are growing at their slowest rate since 2012 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Nationwide's June House Price Index

The Guardian - Fears of no-deal Brexit push British export orders close to year low (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

THE GUARDIAN - British service sector back in growth, according to latest data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Services sector

TELEGRAPH - Why Britain's shopping spree will come at a cost (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. employment

BUSINESS INSIDER - It was a rough morning for the US economy (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson comments on Retail Sales data for June

BUSINESS INSIDER - Housing Starts Surge In December (Media Centre)

Housing Starts Surge In December

The Times - City expects new chancellor to turn on the spending taps (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing next months budget

THE TELEGRAPH - Weak US retail sales put hopes of interest rate hike on ice (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on US Retail Sales

THE TELEGRAPH - Eurozone economy 'sizzles' as ECB readies monetary bazooka (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the Eurozone recovery

THE TELEGRAPH - Britain remains stuck in deflation (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. inflation

FINANCIAL TIMES - Eastern Europe vulnerable to Brexit fallout (Media Centre)

Senior International Economist Andres Abadia on Latam currency risks.

BBC NEWS - Government borrowing falls in first half of year (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Government borrowing

BBC News - Government borrowing in June highest since 2015 (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Public Sector borrowing

BBC News - House prices see largest monthly fall for 11 years, says Nationwide (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K House Prices

BBC NEWS - Inflation surprise as computer game prices drop (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Inflation Growth

BBC News - German economy sees weakest growth since 2013 (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the German Economy

FINANCIAL TIMES - Lower oil prices cut two ways for US economy (Media Centre)

Lower oil prices cut two ways for US economy

NEWS.MARKETS - Brexit? Bremain? How soon will markets know? (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Referendum

BBC News - Coronavirus pushes German economy into recession (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the German economy

BBC News - Coronavirus: Record number of Americans file for unemployment (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on today's U.S. Unemployment data

BBC News - Eurozone economy barely growing at all (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the Eurozone Economy

BBC NEWS - German economy narrowly avoids recession (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Germany's economy

Express - Price growth set to slow for June - but analysts predict further inflation this year (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on Consumer Price Index, June

BBC News - Retail sales fall sharply in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in November

BBC NEWS - US economic growth continues to slow (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. GDP in Q4

BBC News - US economic growth slowest this year (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Q3 GDP

BBC NEWS - US jobs shock as growth slows (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest employment data.

Business Insider U.K. - These 4 charts will define the British economy at the start of 2018 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Economy in 2018

BBC News - U.S. wage growth hits nine-year high (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on August Employment data

City AM - Rising confidence from consumers and businesses point to faster growth in second quarter (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs discussing U.K. Consumer Confidence

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Germany's economic revival threatened by Greek crisis and Russian uncertainty (Media Centre)

A closely watched indicator of the German economy has come in weaker than analysts had anticipated, dampening hopes for the country's revival

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Eurozone surveys make for 'grim reading' as region stutters (Media Centre)

Eurozone surveys make for 'grim reading' as region stutters

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Euro slump offers lifeline to ailing Europe (Media Centre)

Claus Vistesen comments on Eurozone deflation

DAILY TELEGRAPH - Dollar dives as weak US retail sales data raises growth fears (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson on December's low US retail sales.

BBC News - Bank of England keeps interest rates on hold (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Bank of England Interest Rates

BBC News - Coronavirus: Eurozone economy shrinks at record rate (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the German Labour Market

BUSINESS INSIDER - Britain's government could make the pound's crash even worse (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the government's fiscal policy

Independent - Trump has made a lot of claims at Davos -- especially about the US economy. Here's the truth behind the bluster (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on Donald Trump's comments in Davos

Independent - Japan's economy shrinks at fastest pace on record, despite no coronavirus lockdown (Media Centre)

Senior Asia Economist Miguel Chanco on Japan GDP, Q2

Business Insider - We just got another sign that Brexit is ending the consumer boom (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales

Independent - House price growth surges to 5.2% in May, says Halifax (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on Halifax House Price Index in May

BUSINESS INSIDER - Wages for American workers still look like they are about to go higher (Media Centre)

In January, average hourly wages grew 0.5% over the prior month, the biggest month-on-month increase since November 2008......Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said the outlook for wage growth is still strong

Invesco Podcast - The US Economy - Don't Fight the Fed... Or the Government! (Media Centre)

In the latest Invesco Podcast Ben Gutteridge, Director of Model Portfolio Services , speaks to Ian Shepherdson, the founder and Chief US Economist of Pantheon Economics

MAIL ONLINE - US home prices still trend lower in November (Media Centre)

US home prices rose in November from October but the underlying trend continued to point to a slowdown in price gains, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index released Tuesday

BBC News - Wages back above pre-economic crisis levels (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Employment

BUSINESS INSIDER - This key labor market indicator hasn't been this strong in years (Media Centre)

On Thursday morning, we'll get the best-performing indicator of the US labor market: initial jobless claims. For a while now, Pantheon Macroeconomics' Ian Shepherdson has been stressing that the weekly print is noisy, particularly with the volatility the end-of-year season brings

BUSINESS INSIDER - US trade deficit balloons (Media Centre)

The US trade deficit unexpectedly widened by 17% to $46.6 billion in December from $39.8 billion in November.

BUSINESS INSIDER - Top economist throws shade at the 'research institute' that releases a widely followed jobs number (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdsonon why the ADP report is simply not a reliable indicator

BBC - Wage growth hit by higher inflation (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the latest U.K. Labour Market Data

BBC - Banks report new year buy-to-let rush (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Mortgage approvals

BBC - Manufacturing shrinks as Brexit stockpiling halts (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

BBC - Italy's economy stalls as eurozone slows down (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing Italian GDP

BBC - Retail sales in first annual fall since 2013 (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales

BBC - US economic growth slows to 2.3 (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing U.S. Q1 GDP

BBC - US jobs growth jumps in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Employment in November

BBC - US jobless rate at lowest since 1969 (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. payroll gains

BBC - Eurozone economy to grow at faster rate, says central bank (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the ECB

BBC - House prices slip in May in subdued market (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

BBC - Eurozone growth hit 10-year high in 2017 (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone growth

BBC - Eurozone growth hit 10-year high in 2017 (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Eurozone growth

Miguel Chanco

Miguel Chanco helps to produce Pantheon's Asia service, having covered several parts of the region for nearly ten years. He was most recently the Lead Analyst for ASEAN at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Prior to that role, Miguel focused on India and frontier markets in South Asia for Capital Economics and BMI Research, Fitch Group.

Pantheon ranked top forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018

We are pleased to announce that our Chief U.K. Economist, Samuel Tombs, was ranked the most accurate forecaster of the U.K. economy in 2018 by The Sunday Times.

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