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25 June 2020 A Mixed Early Picture of Unlock 1.0 in India, Downside Risks Prevail (Publication Centre)

Some normality has returned in India, more than three weeks from the end of the nationwide lockdown and the start of "Unlock 1.0" on June 1.

25 Sept 2020 India's Agricultural Reforms are Controversial, but Deserve a Shot (Publication Centre)

India's government has been on a reform drive in recent weeks, with the agricultural sector and the labour market undergoing significant liberalisation.

26 Aug 2020 Expect India's Q2 GDP Report to Miss Already-Bleak Expectations (Publication Centre)

India's GDP report for the second quarter, due on Monday, will be a bloodbath.

27 Aug 2019 India Growth Worries are Overblown... Expect a Q2 Rebound (Publication Centre)

India's GDP report for the second quarter, due on Friday, is likely to show a decent rebound in growth from the first quarter.

24 Sept 2019 India Moves from Piecemeal to Big Bang with Huge Corporate Tax Cuts (Publication Centre)

India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman finally brought out the big guns on September 20, announcing significant cuts to corporate tax rates.

23 Apr 2020 India's Sudden Stop Plain to See in Trade, Longer Lockdown to Kill Q2 (Publication Centre)

India's trade data for March highlight the immediate severity of the country's sudden nationwide lockdown.

19 June 2020 India's Q2 Started Off on a Terrible Note, More RBI Cuts Coming (Publication Centre)

The first real glimpse of India's economic performance early this quarter is grim, adding weight to our below-consensus GDP forecast.

2 Sep 2020 Unlock 4.0 in India can only do so Much to Repair the Severe Hit in Q2 (Publication Centre)

India's GDP shrank by 23.9% year-over-year in the second quarter, following growth of 3.1% in Q1.

20 Nov 2019 Indian Inflation Smashes Through the RBI's Target, Setting Up a Pause (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in India jumped to 4.6% in October, from 4.0% in September, marking a 16-month high and blasting through the RBI's target.

27 July 2020 Trade Likely Softened the Lockdown Hit in Q2, as Indian Imports Tanked (Publication Centre)

Net trade in India likely contributed positively to headline GDP growth in the lockdown-plagued second quarter, but for all the wrong reasons.

27 Mar 2020 India Declares War on Covid-1, an H1 Recession Looks Inevitable (Publication Centre)

India's government imposed a three-week nationwide lockdown on March 25 to combat the increasingly rapid spread of Covid-19.

7 Oct 2020 India's Two-Speed Recovery is at a Crossroads, Downside Risks Prevail (Publication Centre)

The changing face of India's post-lockdown economic recovery indicates that the initial bounce since the June reopening could soon stall.

8 July 2019 No Quick Relief from Food Inflation in Sight for India and China (Publication Centre)

One of the main reasons we expect the Reserve Bank of India to roll back at least one of this year's rate cuts before the end of the year is the likely further rise in food inflation.

8 March 2019 How will Markets and the Economy, Fare as India's Elections Approach (Publication Centre)

India's prime minister, Narendra Modi, yesterday held his last cabinet meeting before the general election.

7 Nov 2019 India Started Q4 Badly, Modi's RCEP Snub is Short-Sighted (Publication Centre)

India's PMIs for October were grim, indicating minimal carry-over of energy from the third quarter rebound.

7 July 2020 The Prospects for a Robust Q3 Rebound in India are Diminishing (Publication Centre)

India's services PMI for June underscores the half-hearted nature of Unlock 1.0, with the daily number of new cases of Covid-19 still rocketing.

29 Sept 2020 India's Labour Reforms Go Hand-in-Hand with the Agri-Revolution (Publication Centre)

Last week, we wrote about the significant legislative developments in India's agricultural sector--see here-- which potentially could expedite the economy's move up the value chain, by unleashing surplus workers from farms.

5 Dec 2019 Why We Aren't Panicking About India's Weaker Q3 GDP Print (Publication Centre)

India's headline GDP print for the third quarter was damning, with growth slowing further, to 4.5% year- over-year, from 5.0% in Q2.

5 June 2019 India's Q1 GDP was a Big Miss, but a Knee Jerk Cut Would be Foolish (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in India slowed sharply in the first quarter of the year, as expected--see here--opening the door for the RBI to cut interest rates further at its policy announcement tomorrow.

14 Oct 2019 RBI Beware... Inflation in India will Soon Flirt with the 4% Target (Publication Centre)

Today's CPI report from India should raise the pressure on the RBI to abandon its aggressive easing, which has resulted in 135 basis points worth of rate cuts since February.

28 May 2020 Expect a Drop in India's Q1 GDP, the Early Virus Hit was Sizeable (Publication Centre)

The early damage in India from Covid-19 and the nationwide lockdown likely was significant enough to hammer the GDP report for the first quarter, due tomorrow.

12 May 2020 India's PMIs Show Lockdown Severity, but New Flexibility will Help (Publication Centre)

India's shocking PMIs for April leave little doubt that the second quarter will be bad enough to result in a full-year contraction in 2020 GDP, even if economic activity recovers strongly in the second half.

14 July 2020 India's Industrial Bounce won't get Much Help from Weak Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The year-over-year collapse of industrial production in India eased substantially in May, to -35%, from -58% in April, close to our -32% forecast.

14 Jan 2020 Early Signs of an IP Recovery in India Build the Case for the RBI's Pause (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in India turned around sharply in November, rising by 1.8% year-over-year, following October's 4.0% plunge and beating the consensus forecast for a trivial 0.3% uptick.

8 June 2020 Diving into China's Uneven Bounce, and India's Evolving Covid Strategy (Publication Centre)

China's post-Covid-19 economic recovery is becoming increasingly undeniable. But the more relevant questions now are the speed of its revival, and whether there are still any low-hanging fruit to pick.

20 Mar 2020 Health Check for the Rest of Asia... Downgrades for Korea and India (Publication Centre)

Brace yourselves; GDP growth forecasts are being slashed left and right, as our colleagues take stock of the economic damage Covid-19 likely will inflict in the U.S. and across Europe, where outbreaks and containment measures have escalated significantly.

08 Jan. 2016 Sterling, Not EM Weakness, Will Hold Exports Back (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor argued in a speech on Thursday that the U.K.'s economic recovery is threatened by a "dangerous cocktail" of overseas risks, including slowing growth in the BRICs--Brazil, Russia, India, and China--and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Exports are set to struggle this year, but the strong pound, not weakness in emerging markets, will be the main drag.

5 April 2019 The RBI is Playing with Fire Inflation Will Soon Rear its Ugly Head (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India lowered the benchmark repurchase rate by another 25 basis points yesterday, to 6.00%, as widely expected.

8 February 2019 Shaktikanta Das Starts with a Bang, Changing the Course of RBI Policy (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India shocked most forecasters yesterday, including us, with a 4-to-2 majority voting in favour of a 25-basis point rate cut.

25 June 2019 Acharya's Resignation Won't Alter Policy, but Highlights the RBI's Flaws (Publication Centre)

The Reserve Bank of India was hit by another shock resignation yesterday, with Deputy Governor Viral Acharya confirming his early departure in late July, before the next meeting in August, and well before his term was scheduled to end at the close of this year.

7 June 2019 The RBI's Third Rate Cut is Overkill a U-Turn is Likely, Soon (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted yesterday to cut the benchmark repo rate by a further 25 basis points, to 5.75%, a nine-year low.

7 Oct 2019 After the RBI's Fifth Rate Cut, Food Prices will Force a December Pause (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously on Friday to cut interest rates at a fifth straight meeting, as expected.

24 May 2019 Modi 2.0 Defies Expectations, but Economic Reality will Hit Hard (Publication Centre)

India's National Democratic Alliance, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party,

23 Sept 2020 Expect the RBI to Hold Next Week, but Make a Larger Cut in December (Publication Centre)

The stickiness of CPI inflation in India in recent months should all but guarantee another quiet meeting for the RBI next week.

12 Oct 2020 The RBI is Locked and Loaded, a December Cut Appears Inevitable (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously on Friday to keep the repo rate unchanged, at 4.00%, as widely expected. The six members also retained an "accommodative" stance.

17 Aug 2020 Now is Not the Time for the RBI to Worry About Inflation (Publication Centre)

While we were away, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged, at 4.00%, defying expectations for a 25-basis point cut.

4 Mar 2020 Revisions Aside, India's Q4 GDP isn't Worrying, nor is the Virus Risk (Publication Centre)

India's GDP report for the fourth quarter surprised to the upside, with the economy growing by 4.7% year-over-year, against the Bloomberg median forecast of 4.5%.

18 January 2019 India will Shrug Off the INR Shock, but the Ghost of 2016 is Hovering (Publication Centre)

Data over the past week give a near-complete picture of how India's economy fared in the fourth quarter.

4 June 2020 Don't Set Store by India's Q1 GDP Surprise, no Bullet was Dodged (Publication Centre)

India's consensus-beating GDP report for the first quarter wasn't much to write home about.

19 Feb 2020 India's Slowdown is Over, GDP Growth Likely Rebounded in Q4 (Publication Centre)

India's industrial production data last week are the last set of key economic indicators for the fourth quarter, before next week's Q4 GDP report.

16 August 2018 China's Phoenix Property Market Heats... Will it Help GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

It has been clear for some months now that China's housing market is refusing to quit, and July's data showed the phoenix rising strongly from the ashes.

16 Oct 2020 China will Stage Only a Narrow Escape from PPI Deflation in Q2 (Publication Centre)

The moderation in PPI deflation in China stalled in December, underscoring the difficulty in returning to the black with slack persisting in the economy.

16 Sept 2019 Japan's Domestic Demand Holding up Thanks to Services, it Won't Last (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index edged up 0.1% month-on-month in July, after the 0.1% decrease in June.

15 May 2019 From Zero to King's Landing, how Bad Could Chinese Trade Become (Publication Centre)

Following Chinese retaliation against new U.S. tariffs last week, the U.S. responded last night, as promised, setting in train the process to slap tariffs on the remaining approximately $300B of imports from China.

14 May 2020 Korea's Stable Unemployment Rate Belies the Ongoing Virus Hit to Jobs (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate was unchanged in April, at 3.8%, beating even our below-consensus forecast for only a minor uptick, to 3.9%.

13 Dec 2019 Japan's Machine Orders Hack a Hole in the Notion of Resilient Capex (Publication Centre)

We've been consistent in saying that Japanese capex would roll over this year, after strength in the first three quarters was seen by the authorities and many commentators as a sign of resilience.

14 Aug 2019 Japanese Policymakers Shouldn't take Domestic Demand For Granted (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 GDP was driven by the twin pillars of private consumption and capex.

17 Apr 2020 Will Moral Suasion be Enough to Slow the Virus Outbreak in Japan (Publication Centre)

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last Tuesday finally declared a state of emergency for a month in parts of Japan, after weeks of dithering.

26 February 2019 A U.S. China Trade Deal is in Sight Trump's Huawei U-Turn is Positive (Publication Centre)

Nothing is done until it's done, and, in the case of Sino-U.S. trade talks, even if a deal is reached, the new normal is that tensions will be bubbling in the background.

4 May 2020 Korea's First Deficit in Eight Years Presages the Trade-Driven Q2 Hit (Publication Centre)

Korean exports hit a brick wall in April, unsurprisingly, as lockdowns across the non- China world dealt a body blow to demand.

4 Sep 2020 The Recovery in Chinese Services is Very Uneven, the Punchy PMI Aside (Publication Centre)

China's services sector continues to do most of the heavy lifting for the economy's recovery this quarter, judging by the survey data.

6 Dec 2019 Abenomics 2.0 this is not, 2020 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply (Publication Centre)

We have consistently flagged the likelihood that Japan's government would boost spending after the consumption tax hike was implemented.

30 Mar 2020 Industrial Profits Data Complete China's Grim Start to 2020 (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China collapsed by 38.3% year- over-year in the first two months of 2020, making December's 6.3% fall look like a minor blip.

30 July 2020 No 2nd Wave in Korea to Derail the Recovery in Consumer Confidence (Publication Centre)

The recovery of consumer confidence in Korea remains undeterred by the lingering risk of a second wave.

29 May 2020 Expect Another BoK Cut, as the Data will Continue to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea yesterday voted unanimously to lower its base rate by 25 basis points to a record low of 0.50%.

30 Apr 2020 Footfall Data Highlight the Wide Range of "Lockdowns" in Asia (Publication Centre)

Google's Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports have come raging into fashion in recent weeks, providing a glimpse of the damage done by lockdowns across the world.

1 May 2019 New BoE Governor Unlikely to Mark Regime Shift in Monetary Policy (Publication Centre)

The government last week fired the starting gun for the contest to replace Mark Carney as Governor of the Bank of England.

12 September 2017 Chinese PPI Overshoots, Inflation has been Sticky but Stable (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation surprised analysts with a sharp rebound to 6.3% in August, from 5.5% in July, above the consensus, 5.7%.

1 Aug 2019 Trade Talks Restart China's Woes Will Help to Keep Them Going (Publication Centre)

Trade talks between the U.S. and China officially resumed this week, with the first face-to-face meeting of the main negotiators taking place yesterday in Shanghai.

*January 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China: Manuf. Green Shoots; Household Pain...Japan's Fiscal Package Faces Capacity Constraints...Korea's Q4 GDP Bump Is Iffy, But The Recovery Is On...Food Inflation In India Isn't Just About Onions

*May 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China recovery falters...and now tariffs...Japan's Q1 gdp growth was a mirage; Korean exports are turning the corner, just...India's status quo vote won't turn growth around

*July 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Recovery Will Lose Steam In H2...Tokyo's Second Wave Is Unlike The First, Good...A Capex Correction In Korea Is Imminent...India Is Making Life Harder For Itself

*June 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's first recourse: Secure a trade deal...The boj is reticent to join the chorus of doves...The bok won't blink, green shoots are evident...India's Q1 was poor, but rbi cuts are overkill

10 June 2020 Global Monitor An unprecedented slump requires an unprecedented reply (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - The U.S. stock market is following the money • EUROZONE - The ECB gets ahead of the curve with PEPP boost • U.K. - The BOE to remain more timid on QE than its peers? • ASIA - Don't cheer the consensus beating Q1 GDP print in India • LATAM - More pain in Brazilian manufacturing, but the worst is over

*June 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Punchy Q2 Implies A Quieter Q3 In China...Expect A Quieter Secord Half For The BOJ...Korean Exports Look Poised To Turn The Corner..No Bullet Was Dodged In India; Unlock 1.0 Is Risky

*March 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Activity Data Confirm China's Nightmare Q1...Japan In For A Full-Year Contraction...Korea Should Be Able To Avoid A Technical Recession....India's Policymakers Are Reasonably Quiet, For Now

14th October 2020 French aerospace has been knocked out by the virus (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- Stimulus talks are going nowhere • EUROZONE - EZ banks remain in a world of pain • U.K.- The recovery slowed, before the second wave • ASIA - Downside risks remain for India's recovery • LATAM - Brazilian retail sales are picking up, but threats remain

*February 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Expect a Rare Q/Q Fall in Chinese GDP In Q1...A Technical Recession In Japan is on the Cards...The Real Hit to Korean Trade will Start This Month...Post-Virus in Oil Will Help India's Recovery

*December 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China Is Stabilising, But Not Yet Recovering...Japan's Fiscal Stimulus Faces Capacity Constraints...No New Year Shock This Time For Korean Workers..India's Q3 Wasn;t A Disaster; The RBI Is Done Easing

*September 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Too Soon For China To Claim A Full Recovery...A Tough Start For Japan's New Prime Minister...The Recovery In Korean Exports Is Holding Up, Just...Still No Let-Up In India's Covid-19 Outbreak

30th September 2020 Global Monitor Spot the incentive to fire workers in the U.K. (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- 36 Days to go, who will win, and what will they do • EUROZONE - The PMIs point to a stalling recovery, but other surveys beg to differ • U.K.- The new job-retention scheme won't prevent a sharp rise in unemployment • ASIA - Controversial agricultural reforms in India deserve a shot • LATAM - More rate cuts on the way from Banxico

9th September 2020 Global Monitor The recovery in the U.S. labour market is losing steam (Publication Centre)

• U.S.- The recovery in payrolls is petering out • EUROZONE - Soft August PMIs put the EZ recovery on notice • U.K.- GDP growth is set to slow sharply as support measures are pulled • ASIA - Reopening in India won't save the economy in the near term • LATAM -Ignore depressed Q2 GDP data in Brazil, Q3 will look better

1 July 2020 Global Monitor The virus is back in Germany (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Downside risks loom for growth in Q3 • EUROZONE - Solid M1 data points to a strengthening EZ recovery • U.K. - No major breakout in sight for Cable • ASIA - India is reopening, but risks remain high • LATAM - Mexico's economy is on the ropes; further rate cuts are coming

*May 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Unsustainable V-Shaped Recovery...Japan's Q1 GDP Contraction Is Just A Taster...Korea's Grim April Exports Is A Warning Shot...India's Lockdown Will Kill Q2, Despite Relaxation

*April 2020 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

China's Growing Demand-Supply Mismatch...Three Straight Quarters Of Contraction In Japan...Covid Defeated, But Korea's Economic Hit Isn't Over...An H1 Recession In India Is All But Guarenteed

*August 2019 - Asia Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

Chia faces a u-shaped recovery..Japan's domestic demand strentgh is fragile...The bank of Korea is likely to pause, for now...Expect a respectable Q2 GDP rebound in India

Miguel Chanco

Miguel Chanco helps to produce Pantheon's Asia service, having covered several parts of the region for nearly ten years. He was most recently the Lead Analyst for ASEAN at the Economist Intelligence Unit. Prior to that role, Miguel focused on India and frontier markets in South Asia for Capital Economics and BMI Research, Fitch Group.

8 February 2019 Fiscal Deadlines Promise Drama, but Probably not Crises (Publication Centre)

Two fiscal deadlines are on the near-horizon.

Question of the Week, WC 28th September 2020 (Media Centre)

Has the Internal Market Bill killed off the chances of a trade deal with the E.U.?

Consistently Right

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