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26 matches for "ez pmis":
In one line: Stabilisation at best; details remain depressing reading.
In one line: Solid EZ retail sales and German new orders; and upward revisions to the PMIs.
Yesterday's first batch of Q3 survey data in the Eurozone suggest that economic growth eased further, albeit it slightly, at the start of the quarter.
Last week's debt-relief agreement between Greece and its European creditors goes somewhat further than previous instances when the EU has kicked the can down the road.
Yesterday's PMI data in the euro area were a horror show. The composite EZ index cratered to 13.5 in April, from 29.7 in March, dragged down by a collapse in the services index to 11.7, from 26.4 last month.
The Eurozone PMIs stumbled at the end of Q2. The composite index slipped to a five-month low of 55.7 in June, from 56.8 in May, constrained by a fall in the services index. This offset a marginal rise in the manufacturing index to a new cyclical high. The dip in the headline does not alter the survey's upbeat short- term outlook for the economy.
PMI data in the Eurozone rebounded convincingly in October, as the composite index rose to a 10-month high of 53.7, from 52.6 in September. The gain fully reversed the weakness at the end of Q3.
Yesterday's advance PMI reports in the euro area signal that economic momentum slowed slightly at the start of Q4.
Friday's PMI data were a mixed bag.
Yesterday's final PMI data for February confirmed the story from the advance reports.
Yesterday's PMI data were an open goal for those with a bearish outlook on the euro area economy.
Friday's final June PMI data confirmed the survey's recovery through Q2. The composite index edged higher to 48.5, from 31.9 in May, extending its rebound from a low of just 13.6 in April.
Judging solely by yesterday's PMI and retail sales data, the EZ economy has shaken off the virus and is going from strength to strength.
The PMIs are telling an increasingly upbeat story for the EZ economy in Q4. The composite PMI in the euro area rose to an 11-month high of 54.1 in November, from 53.3 in October. The uptick was driven by strong new business growth across all private sectors, and employment also increased in response to higher work backlogs.
We're sticking to our call that the Eurozone PMIs have bottomed, though we concede that the picture so far is more one of stabilisation than an outright rebound.
Today's market attention will be focused on the advance August PMI data in the major EZ economies. We think the composite PMI in the euro area was unchanged at 53.2 in August, consistent with stable GDP growth of 0.3%-to-0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3. The signal of "stability" in the Eurozone business cycle has been consistently relayed by the PMI since the beginning of the year.
Market-based sentiment indicators in the Eurozone are becoming increasingly detached from the reality of the threat of resurgent Covid-19 and the danger this poses to the strength of the economic recovery.
Yesterday's advance EZ PMI data were virtually unchanged from previous months, yet again. The composite PMI rose trivially to 53.3 in August from 53.2 in July; this means that the index has been almost stable since February. The headline was lifted by a small increase in services, which offset a slight decline in manufacturing.
Yesterday's June PMIs offered more of the same, insofar as the survey's key message goes in the past few months.
Investor sentiment data still indicate that EZ PMIs are set for a significant rebound at start of the year.
Today's advance EZ PMIs will be watched more closely than usual.
Consensus forecasts expect further gains in this week's key EZ business surveys, but the data will struggle to live up to expectations. The headline EZ PMIs, the IFO in Germany, and French manufacturing sentiment have increased almost uninterruptedly since August, and we think the consensus is getting ahead of itself expecting further gains. Our first chart shows that macroeconomic surprise indices in the euro area have jumped to levels which usually have been followed by mean-reversion.
• U.S. - Trump is making it impossible for China to negotiate a trade deal • EUROZONE - EZ PMIs are stabilising, will the economy follow? • U.K. - Our U.K. service is on holiday, publication will resume on September 4 • ASIA - Chinese authorities will ease further, but they have limited space • LATAM - Downside inflation surprises point to rate cuts in Brazil and Mexico
Yesterday's final EZ PMIs imply that growth in manufacturing slowed marginally in August. The PMI fell to 51.7, from 52.0 in July, trivially below the initial estimate, 51.8. Output and new orders growth declined, pushing down the pace of new job growth. But we think the hard data for industrial production in Q3 as a whole will be decent.
• U.S. - Markets now await Iran's inevitable response • EUROZONE - Still soft, but also stabilising, EZ PMIs • U.K. - Strong balance sheets means that recessions risks are remote • ASIA - Useful Chinese Hukou reforms, but looser financial conditions are still needed • LATAM - The outlook is improving in LatAm as trade tensions ease
• U.S. - The second wave is easing, but it isn't over yet • EUROZONE - August EZ PMIs were poor, but not terrible • U.K. - Inflation will fall further, despite the jump in July • ASIA - A narrow recovery for China's economy in Q3 • LATAM - Weak growth and low inflation as far as the eye can in LatAm
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