Search Results: 362
Pantheon Macroeconomics aims to be the premier provider of unbiased, independent macroeconomic intelligence to financial market professionals around the world.
Sorry, but our website is best viewed on a device with a screen width greater than 320px. You can contact us at: email@example.com.
362 matches for "coronavirus":
Yesterday's Sentix investor sentiment survey provided the first glimpse of conditions on the ground in the EZ economy in the wake of the coronavirus scare.
The number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, but we're expecting to see signs that the number of new cases is peaking within the next two to three weeks.
Japan is one of the countries most exposed to economic damage from the coronavirus.
We are revising down our forecasts for quarteron-quarter GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 to 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, from 0.4% in both quarters previously, to account for the likely impact of the coronavirus outbreak.
Topic: Coronavirus means a Contraction in Chinese GDP in Q1 Growth should rebound sharply thereafter, but the recovery will be uneven Reducing tariffs is a smart move What measures will the authorities take to cushion demand
Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. the impact of the Coronavirus on the U.S. Economy
Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on the impact of the Coronavirus on the Chinese Economy
Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the Coronavirus effect on the U.K. economy
Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on the Coronavirus effect on the Chinese Economy
Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish discussing the impact of the Coronavirus on the Chinese Economy
Cheif Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing the Coronavirus response in Europe and the upcoming ECB meeting this week
Freya Beamish, Chief Asia Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the economic impact of coronavirus on China.
Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.
Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said investors shouldn't "downplay" the coronavirus.
In one line: Italian data confirm that aggressive testing and distancing measures work.
In one line: Lockdowns ought to slow case growth by early April.
In one line: Hoping for Seasonality.
In one line: Infection rate data no longer reliable; death rates don't lie, and they are accelerating as the virus spreads.
In one line: U.S. testing finally gathering pace, but still behind the best in Europe.
Little Evidence that Italy's Lockdown is Working, Yet
In one line: The rate of growth of new cases in Italy has levelled off; soon to decline?
In one line: U.S. cases rising steadily but should drop next week; Europe improving but Spanish case growth is stubborn.
In one line: Stubborn case growth and low testing makes U.S. re-opening risky.
In one line: U.S. deaths rocketing; Italy's are falling, with other western Europe not far behind.
In one line: Easing lockdowns in the southern U.S. likely will trigger faster case growth.
In one line: New cases outside the major four outbreaks are accelerating.
In one line: The jump in U.S. cases yesterday looks like an outlier... we hope.
In one line: It's beatable: No new domestic China cases yesterday.
In one line: Vastly increased testing is finding more U.S. cases, but deaths are falling.
In one line: Drastic action is coming in Europe, soon.
More Testing = More Cases, but the True Rate of Spread Likely is Slowing
In one line: U.S. deaths are falling, but the rise in testing seems to have stalled.
The U.S. Curve is a Week Behind Austria's; Can it Stay on Track?
Case Growth Slowing but Still Rapid in the U.S. and Much of Europe
In one line: The U.S. meat industry is the source of most new infection hotspots.
Slowing Growth in Cases Across the U.S.; Exceptions are PA, LA
New Asian Cases Ticking Higher; European Growth Steady, but Rapid
Florida Dodges the Covid Bullet; Curves Bending in most States
In one line: Global cases aren't accelerating, but Italy's nightmare deepens.
In one line: More U.S. testing but falling positive rate is good news.
In one line: Is the U.S. on the brink of a sustained drop in new Covid-19 cases?
In one line: New cases outside China accelerating rapidly.
Case Growth Slowing, but the U.S. Need to do Much More Testing
Case Growth Slowing Across DMs as Lockdown Effects Work Through
First Signs of a Turning Point in Europe as Case Growth Slows?
In one line: Better news from Florida, but daily new cases still rising in some states.
In one line: If the uptick in U.S. new cases is real, deaths will follow; don't bet on it.
In one line: More testing = more cases; evidence of a second wave is scant.
In one line: U.S. Deaths set to reach 100K by late May, even as case numbers fall.
In one line: Disappointing U.S. data yesterday, but not disastrous; Florida's uptick is disconcerting.
In one line: Favorable trends across DM; no sign of rebounds after reopenings.
In one line: Disappointing U.S. numbers yesterday no cause for alarm; Germany has almost beaten Covid-19.
In one line: The downward trend in U.S. cases continues, but at a slower pace.
In one line: U.S. testing hits new highs, but cases still falling, just.
In one line: U.S. data likely distorted by holiday lags, but a second wave may be emerging in parts of the South.
In one line: Most U.S. states seeing slower case growth, despite increased testing.
In one line: Europe outside Italy is in trouble; more days like yesterday will result in broad lockdowns.
In one line: Covid-19 outbreaks fading in China, Korea; Elsewhere, not.
In one line: Falling U.S. deaths are a good sign as increased testing reveals more cases.
In one line: If it bleeds, it leads: Alarmist media are missing the continued slowdown in U.S. case growth.
In one line: Germany is headed for near-zero new cases by the end of May.
In one line: U.S. case growth now well below the pace at the time Germany announced lockdown easing.
In one line: U.S. Cases are falling, and it's not just a New York story.
In one line: Positive U.S. tests dip below 5% as new case numbers start to tumble.
In one line: U.S. case growth is rapid but seems to be slowing, and beware the risk of explosive new hotspots.
In one line: No slowdown yet in U.S. case growth; risk of explosive outbreaks in NJ, FL, LA.
In one line: Bending curves in NY, WA offset by rapid increases in other states; Italy continues to improve.
In one line: The U.S. Covid-19 Curve isn't bending yet.
Two Straight Days of Better News from Italy; U.S. Still Deteriorating
Possible Slowdowns in New Cases in NYC and Some European Countries
In one line: Progress has slowed in the U.S. and Europe; Japan is miles behind.
In one line: NYC making real progress, but rapid increases continue in several large states.
In one line: A slight slowing in the rate of increase outside China; Iran is the key exception.
In one line: New global cases rising steadily, not exponentially, but Europe and U.S. outbreaks worsening.
In one line: U.S. cases are falling, outside the meat-packing hotspots.
In one line: U.S. Case growth is slow and slowing; what will reopening bring?
In one line: Fewer non-China cases overall than previous day, but the trend is still rising and the outbreak is accelerating outside the big four.
In one line: Outside the big four outbreaks, new cases are rising steadily; they aren't accelerating.
In one line: Case growth is slowing in the U.S. and Europe, but Big Risks Remain
In one line: Better news across most of Europe and the U.S., but some states stil face uncontained case growth.
Still Waiting for Results from Europe's Lockdowns; U.S. Cases Soaring
European Covid-19 Case Growth Appears to be Slowing
News that the Covid-19 virus has spread to more countries frayed investors' nerves further yesterday, with the FTSE 100 eventually residing 5.3% below its Friday close.
The German economy finished last year on the back foot.
The Bank of Korea's two main monthly economic surveys were very perky in January.
Hard data released in Argentina over the last month showed that the economy was struggling in early Q1, even before the Covid-19 hit.
Over the past 30 years China's role in LatAm and the global economy has increased sharply. Its share of world trade has surged, and its exports have gained significant market share in LatAm.
In one line: Vigilance will be needed as lockdowns are eased; Covid-19 can spring back.
Last week, while we were taking our spring break at home, markets behaved relatively well in LatAm.
Colombia's central bank has found a relatively sweet spot.
Yesterday was a watershed moment for investors.
Cases and Deaths Falling; U.S. Testing Still Inadequate
Trends in U.S. Cases and Deaths are Falling, Despite Yesterday's Jumps
We've previously highlighted the pro-cyclical elements of the BoJ's framework, but it's worth repeating, when an economic shock comes along.
Daily U.S. Deaths Should Drop Clearly this Week
In one line: New U.S. cases per million will soon be at the levels which prompted easing lockdowns in Italy, Spain and Austria.
In one line: As U.S. testing increases, the rate of growth of confirmed cases could rise again for a time.
Nobody knows the damage China's virus- containment efforts will have on GDP, and we probably never will, for sure, given the opacity of the statistics.
New U.S. Case have Peaked but Europe and ANZ Doing Much Better
Yesterday's German ZEW investor sentiment survey provided the first clear evidence of the coronavirus in the EZ survey data.
The global coronavirus pandemic is hitting the LatAm economy at a particularly vulnerable time, following last year's stuttering economic recovery, temporary shocks in key economies and the effect of the global trade war.
Data on air quality in China provide some useful insights into the economic disruptions--or lack thereof--caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus from Wuhan and the government's aggressive containment measures.
Investors moved rapidly last week to price-in renewed easing by central banks around the world, in response to the rapid growth in coronavirus cases outside China and the resulting sell-off in equity markets.
The labour market was pretty robust before the coronavirus crisis.
The rate of growth of new coronavirus infections across Europe slowed yesterday, in some cases quite markedly. We can quibble about the reliability of the data in individual countries, given variations in testing regimes, but the picture is strikingly uniform.
Friday's PMIs were supposed to provide the first reliable piece of evidence of the coronavirus on euro area businesses, but they didn't. Instead, they left economists dazed, confused and scrambling for a suitable narrative.
The sharp decline in Mexico's leading indicators highlights the dramatic scale of the economic and financial hit from the coronavirus. High frequency data and the PMIs are the first numbers to capture the lockdown, and they signal that the services activity-- the bulk of Mexico's GDP--dropped sharply.
The coronavirus outbreak and its associated movements in asset prices have radically changed the outlook for CPI inflation, which ultimately the MPC is tasked with targeting.
The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc in Brazil.
Data released this week in LatAm are the last calm before the coronavirus storm.
The clear threat to demand posed by the coronavirus and China's efforts at containment have sent a shock wave through commodities markets.
We're now starting to see clear signs in unofficial data that households are slashing their expenditure on discretionary services, in order to minimise their chances of catching the coronavirus.
Inflation data in Brazil, Mexico and Chile last week reinforced our view that interest rates will remain on hold, or be cut, over the coming meetings. The recent fall in oil prices, and the weakness of domestic demand, will offset recent volatility caused by the FX sell-off, driven mostly by the coronavirus story.
A decade of public deficit reduction was fully reversed in April, as the coronavirus tore through the economy.
It's just not possible to forecast the reaction of businesses and consumers to the coronavirus outbreak.
We expect the Budget today to underwhelm investors who are eager to see a quick and powerful government response to the coronavirus outbreak.
We argued a couple of weeks ago that the stock market could suffer a relapse, on the grounds that valuations hadn't fallen far enough from their peak to reflect the extent of the hit to the economy; that hopes for an early re-opening were likely to prove forlorn; and that investors were likely to be spooked by the incoming coronavirus data.
The measures to support the economy through the coronavirus crisis, unveiled by policymakers on Budget day, exceeded expectations.
In previous Monitors--see here--we've suggested that, thanks to the coronavirus, China simply will lose some of the spending that would have gone on during the holiday this year.
The hard economic data in Brazil were relatively solid while we were off last week, supporting our view that the economy was experiencing a good spell at the start of the year just before the coronavirus hit.
Japan's money and credit data have shown signs of life in recent months, but that's all set to change quickly, due to the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.
A pair of closely-watched reports today will confirm that business and consumer confidence is tanking in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.
The U.S. coronavirus outbreak is not slowing. The curve is not bending much, if at all. Confirmed cases continue to increase at a steady rate, averaging 23% per day over the past three days.
We're very comfortable with the idea that the coronavirus is a broad deflationary shock to the U.S. economy.
Korea's trade data for January provided the first real glimpse of the potential hit to international flows from the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.
Further weakness to come for Japan's manufacturing PMI. First services hit from the coronavirus is damning. Japan's all-industry activity index suggests the 2019 tax hike was as bad as 2014. A drop in food inflation was enough to offset lagged oil pressures in Japan's January CPI. Ignore the headline; the coronavirus is now hurting Korean exports.
Efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak severely dented industrial activity in Brazil.
The coronavirus outbreak, by definition, will fade eventually, but we suspect the measures to combat it will be more long-lasting. In terms of sheer scale, EZ governments and the ECB are throwing the kitchen sink at the virus, but that's only half the story.
Something of a debate appears to be underway in markets over the "correct" way to look at the coronavirus data.
The coronavirus pandemic looks set to spread rapidly throughout LatAm.
On Friday last week, the Chinese authorities suspended sales of domestic and international tours, in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus, which started in Wuhan.
As the situation with the coronavirus develops, and we gain more information on the authorities' response, it's becoming clear that the damage to Q1 GDP is going to be nasty.
It has been a nasty start to the year for LatAm as markets have been hit by renewed volatility in China, triggered by the coronavirus.
PBoC rate cut still on the tame side but more is coming, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI yet to see virus damage, China's profits better than the headline suggests going into the coronavirus hit, Early signs of coronavirus damage in Korea's trade data, Surge in Korea's manufacturing PMI comes to a stop in January
How will the ECB respond to the Coronavirus, if at all?
The U.S. Economy: Navigating Through the Coronavirus Outbreak
Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing the Fed and the Coronavirus
Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on China and the Coronavirus
We can't yet know how bad the spread of the coronavirus from the Chinese city of Wuhan will be.
Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on today's U.S. Unemployment data
Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the German economy
Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in February
Chief Asia Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Freya Beamish discusses her views on the Chinese economy.
Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest from the Fed
Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP in February
David Bahnsen, managing partner and chief investment officer of the Bahnsen Group, and Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, join "Squawk Box" to discuss the markets and the government measures being taken to stimulate the economy amid the coronavirus outbreak.
Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses how policymakers are responding to the coronavirus crisis.
Ben Laidler, Tower Hudson Research CEO, thinks U.S. equities are in much better shape than many people think they are. Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, thinks the Fed could be close to the point of taking action on the coronavirus. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says market uncertainty makes in almost impossible to take a three-year view. Dr. Peter Hotez, Baylor College of Medicine Dean, breaks down the most recent efforts to combat the coronavirus. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg Chief Washington Correspondent, says tonight's debate is most critical for Joe Biden.
he services sector is seeing "job losses that will not be quickly recovered," says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, as he examines the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the U.S. labor market. He speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."
Inflation in Brazil remained subdued at the start of the second quarter, strengthening the odds for an additional interest rate cut next month, and opening the door for further stimulus in June.
LatAm financial and FX markets have behaved relatively well in recent sessions, thanks to the array of monetary and fiscal measures taken to counter the severe risk-off environment.
The limited data available on the state of the labour market, since the government forced businesses to close two weeks ago, paint a disconcerting picture.
The extent of shut downs within China is now reaching extreme levels, going far beyond services and threatening demand for commodities, as well as posing a severe risk to the nascent upturn in the tech cycle.
Yesterday's IFO data reversed the good vibes sent by last week's upbeat German PMIs.
Our ECB-story since Ms. Lagarde took the helm as president has been that the central bank will do as little as possible through 2020, at least in terms of shifting its major policy tools.
Yesterday's French INSEE consumer confidence data provided a fascinating glimpse into the reality for households during these strange times. The headline index fell by "just" eight points in April, to 95 from 103 in March, comfortably beating the consensus for a crash to 80.
Brazil's external accounts were a relatively bright spot again last year.
The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.
Chile's stronger-than-expected industrial production report for December, and less-ugly-than- feared retail sales numbers, confirmed that the hit from the Q4 social unrest on economic activity is disappearing.
The Fed's statement yesterday was unsurprising, acknowledging a "sharp" decline in economic activity and a significant tightening of financial conditions, which has "impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses."
Yesterday's economic reports in the euro area were mixed.
Yesterday's FOMC , announcing a unanimous vote for no change in the funds rate, is almost identical to December's.
Retail sales in Mexico fell in Q4, but we think households' spending will continue to contribute to GDP growth in the first quarter, at the margin.
The economic downturn and the Chancellor's unprecedented fiscal measures mean that public borrowing likely will be about four times higher, in the forthcoming fiscal year, than anticipated in the Budget just over two weeks ago.
The massive hit from low oil prices, Covid-19 and President AMLO's willingness to call snap referendums on projects already under construction is putting pressure on Mexico's sovereign credit fundamentals and ratings.
Google's Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports have come raging into fashion in recent weeks, providing a glimpse of the damage done by lockdowns across the world.
Friday's advance Q4 growth numbers in the EZ were a bit of a dumpster fire.
Last week we made a big call and further downgraded our China GDP forecasts for Q1; daily data and survey evidence suggested that our initial take, though grim, had not been grim enough.
The Bank of England issued a statement yesterday that it is "working closely with HM Treasury and the FCA--as well as our international partners--to ensure all necessary steps are taken to protect financial and monetary stability".
The official PMIs suggest that the January survey data have escaped the worst of the hit from the virus.
The collapse in oil prices looks near-certain to pull Japan back into deflation in the next few months, though the BoJ normally looks through oil-induced swings in its target inflation measure.
The closer we look at the data, the less concerned we are at the painfully slow decline in the number of new daily confirmed Covid-19 cases.
It's impossible to overstate the potential importance of last week's announcement by N.Y. Governor Cuomo that antibody testing suggests about one in five people in New York City have already been infected with Covid-19.
Last week's European Council meeting provided little in the way of clarity over the likelihood of a jointly financed response to support economies through the Covid-19 outbreak.
The rate of growth of Covid-19 cases outside China appears to have peaked, for now, but we can't yet have any confidence that this represents a definitive shift in the progress of the epidemic.
In our Webinar--see here--we laid out scenarios for Chinese GDP in Q1 and for this year.
The spread of the Covid-19 virus remains the key issue for markets, which were deeply unhappy yesterday at reports of new cases in Austria, Spain and Switzerland, all of which appear to be connected to the cluster in northern Italy.
LatAm governments and central banks have been busy implementing additional measures to contain the spread of the virus, and acting rapidly to ease the effect on the economy.
Data yesterday showed that German inflation roared higher at the start of the year, but the devil is in the detail.
Data released yesterday confirmed that Mexico's economy ended Q4 poorly, confounding the most hawkish Banxico Board members.
The Covid-19 scare can be split into two stages, the initial outbreak in China, concentrated in Wuhan, and the now-worrying signs that clusters are forming in other parts of the world, primarily in South Korea, the Middle East and Italy.
Yesterday's State Council meeting significantly expanded support to the economy, through a number of channels.
Headline M3 money supply growth in the Eurozone was steady as a rock at around 5% year-over-year between 2014 and the end of 2017.
The Covid-19 outbreak has rattled equity markets, but has not had a major bearing on DM currencies, yet.
The BoK surprised markets and commentators by keeping rates unchanged at 1.25% yesterday, rather than cutting to 1.0%.
The Fed meeting today is unlikely to bring any significant policy shifts, mostly because the Fed has done everything we thought would be necessary once it became clear how badly the economy would be hit by Covid-19.
The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan stepped up its Covid-19 liquidity relief measures yesterday, while retaining its main policy settings--namely, the -0.10% balance rate and the ten-year yield target of "around zero percent".
February's retail sales figures highlighted that consumers' spending was flagging even before the Covid-19 outbreak.
After falling close to 5% last week, the Ibovespa rallied about 3.5% yesterday. Investors reacted positively to President Bolsonaro's expression of support for his Economy Minister, Paulo Guedes, after market concerns about tensions between them.
This week's data will offer the first clear hard evidence of the Covid-19 shock to the EZ economy. Thursday's calendar is the main event, with advance Q1 GDP data, March EZ unemployment numbers, and the April CPI report.
The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.
Leave it to an economist to tell contradictory stories; German manufacturing orders, at the start of the year, rose at their fastest pace since 2014, but it doesn't mean anything.
There are only two stories that matter for EZ investors at the moment, and neither of them is related to the economic data.
A trio of data releases yesterday provided no relief from the run of abysmal economic news.
The Brazilian central bank cut the benchmark Selic interest rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, on Wednesday night, as expected.
Our hope for a year-end jump in German factory orders was laughably optimistic.
Chancellor Sunak faces a tough first gig on Wednesday, when he delivers the long-awaited Budget.
We think today's February payroll number will be reported at about 140K, undershooting the 175K consensus.
In today's Monitor, we'll let the economy be, and focus instead on what are fast becoming the two defining political issues for the EU and its new Commission, namely migration and climate change.
The rapid escalation of Covid-19 cases in Korea in recent weeks has broadened the likely damage to the economy this quarter.
Data released on Wednesday, along with the BCB's press release on Tuesday, supported our longstanding forecast of further rate cuts in Brazil in the very near term.
February's GDP report, released on Thursday, likely will show that the economy continued to struggle for momentum, despite the fillip to sentiment stemming from the general election.
The lockdown in Britain that began two-and-a half weeks ago is starting to stem the number of new infections.
China PMI chimes with our GDP downgrade last week. China's non-manufacturing PMI weakest on construction. Japan's MoF capex numbers point to Q4 GDP downgrade. Ignore the consensus-beating headline, Korean exports were abysmal in February, calendar effects aside. The virus now has infected Korea's PMI; expect business surveys to get a lot worse.
Rebound in Chinese trade will be hampered in the short run by virus disruptions around the world. PBoC leant against Covid-19 pressures on the RMB... a far cry from January's Phase One rally. Japan's Q4 GDP nose-dive downgraded on weaker private and public investment. Japan's current account surplus is facing strong crosscurrents.
In one line: Whatever it takes.
The huge drop in the March Markit services PMI, reported yesterday, and the modest dip in the manufacturing index, are the first national business survey data to capture the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak.
Japan's monetary and credit trends were looking better, but now stand to be damaged by... the virus scare. Virus hit still to come for Japanese machine tool orders? Korea's jobless rate is back to its pre-August one-off plunge.
Covid-19 efforts in Korea, plus Q1 front-loading of jobs budget, result in February surprise.
A third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks is now underway. The first, in China, is now under control, and the rate of increase of cases in South Korea has dropped sharply. The other second wave countries, Italy and Iran, are still struggling.
Labour cash earnings in Japan ostensibly started the year strongly, jumping by 1.5% year-over-year in January, much better than December's 0.2% slip.
January's GDP report, released on Wednesday, was set to be one of the most important data releases of this year, due to its role in providing the first official steer on the economy's post-election performance.
Yesterday's final PMI data in the Eurozone were better than we expected.
The surge in the broad money supply in March, as the U.K.'s lockdown began, suggests that businesses are in relatively good shape to survive a multi-month period of greatly depressed demand.
The near-term performance for EZ manufacturing will be a tug-of-war between positive technical factors, and a still-poor fundamental outlook.
The key story in Brazil this year remains one of gradual recovery, but downside risks have increased sharply, due mainly to challenging external conditions.
We aren't in the business of trying to divine the explanation for every twist and turn in the stock market at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.
India's GDP report for the fourth quarter surprised to the upside, with the economy growing by 4.7% year-over-year, against the Bloomberg median forecast of 4.5%.
The PBoC yesterday cut its 7-day and 14-day reverse repo rate by 10bp, to 2.40% and 2.55% respectively, while injecting RMB 1.2T through open market operations.
The fundamentals underpinning our forecast of solid first half growth in consumers' spending remain robust.
It's a myth that the 10-ye ar decline in the unemployment rate has not driven up the pace of wage growth.
The virus outbreak has been relatively limited so far in Argentina, with 820 confirmed cases, but the numbers are rising rapidly.
Covid-19 has cut short a nascent recovery in housing market activity.
Markets were left somewhat disappointed yesterday by the G7 statement that central banks and finance ministers stand ready "to use all appropriate policy tools to achieve strong, sustainable growth and safeguard against downside risks."
Korean exports hit a brick wall in April, unsurprisingly, as lockdowns across the non- China world dealt a body blow to demand.
It will take a while for the economic data in the euro area fully to reflect the Covid-19 shock, but the incoming numbers paint an increasingly clear picture of an improving economy going into the outbreak.
Speculation mounted yesterday that the MPC will follow the U.S. Fed and cut interest rates before its next meeting on March 26.
The recent March economic activity reports for Chile have been terrible, showing the first signs of the Covid-19 shock, and worse is to come.
The Fed's unscheduled 50bp cut on Tuesday opens up some space for Asian central banks to follow suit.
The comforting 183K increase in February private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday likely overstates tomorrow's official number.
The MPC won't stand idly by on Thursday, despite having moved decisively to support the economy in March.
We're hearing a lot about permanent changes to the economy in the wake of Covid-19, but that might not be the right description. Not much is permanent, and assuming permanence in just about anything, therefore, is risky.
Brazil's December industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed that the recovery was stuttering at the end of last year.
Yesterday's first estimate of full-year 2019 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was extremely poor, due to domestic and external shocks.
A sizeable drop in China's year-over-year GDP in Q1 is now the consensus view, after 6.0% growth in Q4.
Japan's GDP likely dropped by a huge 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, after the 0.5% increase in Q3, with risks skewed firmly to the downside.
The 0.242% increase in the January core CPI left the year-over-year rate at 2.3% for the third straight month.
Mexican policymakers stuck to the script yesterday and voted unanimously to cut the main rate by 50bp to 5.50%, its lowest level in more than three years.
For all the excitement generated by yesterday's raft of appalling economic reports, the weekly jobless claims numbers still offer the best, and almost real-time, guide to the big picture.
It was no surprise that Banxico cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.00% yesterday, following similar moves in August, September, November and December.
Analysis of the economy's potential to recover later this year from extreme weakness in Q2 has focussed largely on the extent to which virus-related restrictions will be lifted.
Even the record-breaking slump in Markit's composite PMI probably understates the hit to economic activity from Covid-19 and the emergency measures to slow its spread.
Yesterday's ECB meeting was a tragedy in two acts. Markets were initially underwhelmed by the concrete measures unveiled, and they were then shell-shocked by Ms. Lagarde's performance in the press conference.
The NY Fed's announcement yesterday restarts QE. The $60B of bill purchases previously planned for the period from March 13 through April 13 will now consist of $60B purchases "across a range of maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding".
The sharply increased virus spread outside China has lead to a serious downgrade in the global GDP growth outlook.
EZ investors are still trying to come to grips with last week's terrifying price action, culminating in the 12.5% crash in equities on Thursday
Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively weak footing. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 0.3% month- to-month, pushing down the adjusted year-over- year rate to 0.3%, from a downwardly-revised 0.7% increase in November.
We've continuously warned that Japan's national accounts weren't sitting easily with the underlying signals from survey data, and monetary conditions, through last year.
China's data on Monday were beyond dire, leading to a dramatic downward revision of our already grim Q1 GDP forecasts for the country.
Signs that the economy has been crippled by people's response to the Covid-19 outbreak continued to emerge yesterday.
Friday' second Q4 GDP estimate revealed that the EZ economy barely grew at the end of 2019. The report confirmed that GDP rose by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, slowing from a 0.3% rise in Q3, but the headline only narrowly avoided downward revision to zero, at just 0.058%
LatAm currencies fell sharply in Q1 but the hit hasn't yet pushed inflation higher.
The absence of an internationally agreed set of guidelines for easing lockdowns means that such decisions ultimately are political in nature.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last Tuesday finally declared a state of emergency for a month in parts of Japan, after weeks of dithering.
The fact that Italy's economy is in poor shape will not surprise anyone following the euro area, but the advance Q4 GDP headline was astonishingly poor all the same.
The Q1 GDP figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that the quarter-on-quarter decline in economic activity eclipsed the biggest decline in the 2008-to-09 recession--2.1% in Q4 2008--even though the U.K. went into lockdown towards the very end of the quarter.
China's trade balance flipped to an unadjusted deficit of $7.1B in the first two months of the year, from a $47.2B surplus in December.
Most countries in LatAm are now fighting a complex global environment; a viral outbreak of biblical proportions and plunging oil prices, after last week's OPEC fiasco.
In this Monitor we'll let the data be, and try to make some sense of the recent market volatility from a Eurozone perspective, with an eye to the implications for the economy and policymakers' actions.
The collapse in oil prices was the immediate trigger for the 7.6% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday, but the underlying reason is the Covid-19 epidemic.
Friday's industrial production data in the core EZ economies, for December, were startlingly poor. In Germany, industrial production plunged by 3.5% month-to-month, comfortably reversing the revised 1.2% rise in November.
China's January trade data were scheduled for release on Friday, but instead, the customs authority delayed the publication, saying it would publish the numbers with the February data
The drop in jobless claims to 3,839K in the week ended April 25, from 4,442K in the previous week, leaves the data still terrible, but markedly less terrible than at the 6,867K peak in late March.
Yesterday's first estimate of Q1 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was under severe pressure at the start of the year. GDP fell by 1.6% quarter- on-quarter, the biggest drop since mid-2009, well below market expectations and following a 0.1% drop in Q4.
Britain is indisputably beyond the peak of the first wave of Covid-19 infections, though the descent in new cases, hospitalisations and deaths has been shallower than the ascent.
Mexico's latest forward-looking indicators are showing tentative signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that growth slowed quicker than markets have been expecting.
This has been a very complicated week for LatAm policymakers, who are particularly uneasy about the performance of the FX market.
Chancellor Sunak's "temporary, timely and targeted" fiscal response to the Covid-19 outbreak, and the BoE's accompanying stimulus measures, won't prevent GDP from falling over the next couple of months.
The Fed paved the way with a 50bp emergency rate cut on March 3, with more to come.
The Andean countries were quick to implement significant measures in response to the initial stage of the pandemic, adopting a broad range of economic and social policies to ease the effects.
China's money and credit data for February were reassuring, at least when compared with the doomsday scenario painted, so far, by other key indicators for last month.
Chair Powell broke no new ground in his semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, repeating the Fed's new core view that the current stance of policy is "appropriate".
Collapsing oil prices add fresh deflationary pressure on China.
It's still unclear how exactly Covid-19 will impact the euro area as a whole, but little doubt now remains that Italy's economy is in for a rough ride.
Yesterday's minutes of the February 4-to-5 COPOM meeting, at which Brazil's central bank, the BCB, cut the benchmark Selic rate by 25bp to 4.25%, reaffirmed the committee's post-meeting communiqué.
This week's labour market report--primarily reflecting conditions in March, though some data refer to April--will lift the veil on the initial economic damage from Covid-19, though the full horror will emerge only later.
LatAm governments and policymakers are bracing for a more dramatic and longer virus-led downturn than initially expected.
The re-opening of businesses in Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee, starting this week and expanding next week, comes as the rate of increase of confirmed Covid-19 infections in these states remains much faster than in European countries where lockdowns have started to ease.
Tomorrow's Q1 GDP report for Korea has a wider spread of forecasts than usual, reflecting Covid-19's uneven hit to the economy.
We are hearing a great deal about the threat of a second wave of Covid-19 infections, caused either by the reopening of the economy, or the arrival of cooler weather in the fall, or both.
Yesterday's economic data provided the first glimpse of the crash in EZ sentiment at the start of Q2, ahead of today's more substantial barrage of numbers, including French INSEE data, GfK confidence numbers in Germany and the advance PMIs.
Mexican policymakers held an emergency meeting yesterday in the wake of DM easing, global fiscal stimulus, plunging oil prices, and the pandemic crisis, slashing interest rates to their lower level since early 2017.
European heads of states will convene tomorrow, virtually, in the Council to continue the debate on a joint and coordinated response to the Covid-19 epidemic. The meeting will progress along two tracks.
We expect the flash reading of Markit's composite PMI, released today, to print at 52.4 in February, below the consensus, 52.8, and January's final reading, 53.3, albeit still in line with last month's flash.
Today's advance EZ PMIs will be watched more closely than usual.
Once again, Chinese January data released so far suggest that the Phase One trade deal was the dominant factor dictating activity for the first two- thirds of the month, with the virus becoming a real consideration only in the last third.
India's trade data for March highlight the immediate severity of the country's sudden nationwide lockdown.
Policymakers and governments are gradually deploying major fiscal and monetary policy measures to ease the hit from Covid-19 and the related financial crisis.
While we were out last week, market nervousness over the Covid-19 outbreak intensified, though most key indicators of the spread of the infection continued to improve.
The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea is likely to keep its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.25%, at its meeting this week.
Data released on Friday confirmed an appalling end to the first quarter for the Brazilian and Colombian economies. In Brazil, the March IBC-Br, a monthly proxy for GDP, plunged 5.9% month-to-month, close to expectations.
Yesterday's stock market bloodbath stands in contrast to the U.S. economic data, most of which so far show no impact from the Covid-19 outbreak.
The flash readings of the Markit/CIPS surveys in February provide reassurance that GDP is on track to rebound in Q1, despite disruption to the global economy caused by the COVID-19 outbreak and bad weather in the U.K. this month.
Japan's January PMIs sent a clear signal that the virus impact is not to be underestimated. The manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 in February, from 48.8 in January, contrasting sharply with the rising headlines of last week's batch of European PMIs.
Economists' forecasts are changing almost as quickly as market prices these days, and not for the better.
The drop in the flash composite PMI in March will be one for the record books, unfortunately. We look for an unprecedented drop to 43.0, from 53.3 in February, which would undershoot the 45.0 consensus and signal clearly that a deep recession is underway.
Korean GDP contracted by 1.4% quarter-on- quarter in Q1, erasing the 1.3% jump at the end of last year. The pullback was sharper than we expected, with the cliff-edge drop in private consumption, in particular, catching us by surprise.
Covid-19 has finally showed up in Japan's exports, which plunged 11.7% year-over-year in March, after falling a mere 1.0% in February.
Brazil's inflation rate remained well under control over the first half of February.
Japan's labour data threw another January curve ball this year--last year it was wages--with a change in the standards for job openings.
Data on Friday showed that the downward trend in Brazil's unemployment continued into this year. The unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 11.2% in January, slightly below the consensus, and down from 12.0% in January last year.
We'll cover Friday's barrage of EZ economic data later in this Monitor, but first things first. We regret to inform readers that the ECB is behind the curve. Last week, Ms. Lagarde downplayed the idea that the central bank will respond to the shock from the Covid-19 outbreak.
The Andean economies have been clear examples of true leadership in the current global crisis. Leaders of these countries acted rapidly to contain the spread of the virus, jumping right over the phases of denial, anger and unscrupulousness we've seen in Brazil and Mexico.
The duration and future scope of the current lockdown is the main uncertainty that U.K economic forecasters have to grapple with at present.
The Chilean economy was emerging in early Q1 from the self-inflicted shock from the social unrest in October, but the upturn was interrupted in early- March by the restrictive measures introduced to contain Covid-19.
In Friday's Monitor, we warned that Moody's would soon cut Mexico's credit rating; in a matter of hours, it was a done deal.
Colombia's GDP report, released last week, confirmed that it was the fastest growing economy in LatAm and everything suggests that it likely will lead the ranking again this year.
Chancellor Sunak announced further emergency support measures for the economy on Tuesday and pledged to do more soon.
We understand the desire of investors and individuals to see the economy re-opening as soon as possible, but the data right now support only a limited opening in some parts of the country and, hence, a limited late spring/summer rebound in the economy.
The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.
Economic and financial conditions continue to deteriorate sharply in LatAm.
We have been on the ECB's case recently. The action taken at last week's official meeting--see here--fell short of market expectations, but more importantly, Ms. Lagarde's communication around the decisions was disastrous.
The MPC has wasted no time in seeking to counter this week's undesirable pick-up in gilt yields, which reflects investors dumping assets for cash.
As painful as it is, the decision to lock down economies to curb the spread of Covid-19 was easy. The next step, however, is considerably more difficult.
Wednesday's State Council meeting implies that the authorities are starting to take more serious coordinated fiscal measures to counter the virus threat to the labour market and to banks.
We hope never to see another labour market report as bad as yesterday's, though the omens aren't good.
Production in the EZ construction sector slumped at the end of Q4. Data yesterday showed that output slid by 3.1% month-to-month in December, comfortably reversing the 0.7% increase in November.
The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate by June fell to 34%, from 38%, after the release of January's consumer price figures, though investors still see around an 80% chance of a cut by the end of this year.
Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Covid-19 data from the U.S.
Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the German Labour Market
Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP
Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss what he thinks about Georgia's plan to reopen its economy and how the state's situation compares to some countries in Europe.
In one line: Weak, and coronavirus now casts a shadow over the Q1/Q2 numbers.
The coronavirus will put renewed pressure on Korea's current account surplus.
Today's payroll number is completely irrelevant, because 97% of the 10.2M increase--so far--in initial jobless claims from their pre-coronavirus level came after the employment survey was conducted, between Sunday March 8 and Saturday March 14.
In one line: Promising, but a coronavirus hit looms in the next few months.
China's PMIs are not yet fully picking up the coronavirus; China's non-manufacturing PMI lifted by local government spending; not yet hit by the virus; Japan's job postings still suggest the unemployment rate is unsustainably low; Japan's national inflation has less far to fall than Tokyo's; The coronavirus will delay the return of Japanese retail sales to pre-tax hike levels; Investment goods drive Japan's IP rebound in December; no real support now for consumer goods production; December probably is as good as it will get for Korean industrial production, for now
In one line: Solid, but the coronavirus is a threat for the rest of Q1.
In one line: The coronavirus finally arrives in the EZ macro data.
In one line: Biggest m/m increase since mid-2017; no kidding! No coronavirus here.
The House passage of a stimulus bill last Friday, seeking to ameliorate some of the damage done by the coronavirus outbreak, will not be nearly enough.
LatAm data in recent days have confirmed that efforts to contain the coronavirus, plunging global trade, and the collapse in oil prices, are dealing a severe economic and financial blow.
In one line: Spending is better than it looks, but sustainability depends on the U.S. not suffering a major coronavirus outbreak.
A decent start to the year, but the coronavirus hit to the economy is looming.
In one line: Probably understating the coronavirus hit.
The Coronavirus Is A New Economic Threat....Bad News For Latam's External-Driven Economies
In one line: On hold, but the coronavirus is a threat.
In one line: A decent end to 2019, but plunging capex and the coronavirus are threats.
The latest developments on the coronavirus outbreak are not encouraging; for LatAm markets and economies.
Today's March ADP employment report likely will catch the leading edge of the wave of job losses triggered by the coronavirus.
In one line: The first signs of the coronavirus hit; more pain to come.
While we were out--but not going anywhere--the data broadly were as awful as we expected, though the rate of growth of coronavirus infections in the U.S. and most other developed countries continued to slow.
The Fed's 50bp rate cut last week, aiming to shield the U.S. economy against Covid-19, has opened the door for some central banks in LatAm to emulate the move.
The effects of Covid-19--both negative and positive--on Korea's labour market certainly were felt in February.
Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on Japan's economy
Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing Global debt
Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP
Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Housing starts
Charts released by Pantheon Macroeconomics show that Sweden's cases have yet to plateau, while Norway's case count appears to be on a downslide.
Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on China's PMI data
Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Unemployment
Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Jobless Claims
Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson with the latest Covid-19 data
Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the record-breaking number of U.S. Unemployment Claims this week
Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the latest data from the Eurozone
Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Consumer Spending
pantheon macroeconomics, pantheon, macroeconomic, macroeconomics, independent analysis, independent macroeconomic research, independent, analysis, research, economic intelligence, economy, economic, economics, economists, , Ian Shepherdson, financial market, macro research, independent macro research