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474 matches for "coronavirus":

11 Feb 2020 The Coronavirus will test the Policy Put's Effect on EZ Equities (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Sentix investor sentiment survey provided the first glimpse of conditions on the ground in the EZ economy in the wake of the coronavirus scare.

4 Mar 2020 Pulling Down our Economic Forecasts Due to the Coronavirus (Publication Centre)

We are revising down our forecasts for quarteron-quarter GDP growth in Q1 and Q2 to 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, from 0.4% in both quarters previously, to account for the likely impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

30 Jan 2020 Coronavirus Raises the Risks of a Technical Recession in Japan (Publication Centre)

Japan is one of the countries most exposed to economic damage from the coronavirus.

3 Feb 2020 Some Hopeful Signs are Emerging in the Coronavirus Data (Publication Centre)

The number of coronavirus cases continues to increase, but we're expecting to see signs that the number of new cases is peaking within the next two to three weeks.

Asia Webinar February 2020: Coronavirus Will Cause A Q1 GDP Contraction...But Catch-Up Growth Should Then Be Strong (Media Centre)

Topic: Coronavirus means a Contraction in Chinese GDP in Q1 Growth should rebound sharply thereafter, but the recovery will be uneven Reducing tariffs is a smart move  What measures will the authorities take to cushion demand

Reuters - China's first-quarter economic hit from coronavirus looking more severe: Reuters poll (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on the Coronavirus effect on the Chinese Economy

Guardian - Global firms halt China travel as coronavirus spooks markets (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on the impact of the Coronavirus on the Chinese Economy

CNBC - Coronavirus hits U.S. job market -- Jim Cramer and others weigh in (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. the impact of the Coronavirus on the U.S. Economy

The Guardian - FTSE loses another £35bn as coronavirus rattles global markets (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the Coronavirus effect on the U.K. economy

CNBC - Coronavirus could see China GDP contract in first quarter: Strategist (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said investors shouldn't "downplay" the coronavirus.

CNBC - Coronavirus: Effect on Chinese GDP a 'shocker', economist says (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, Chief Asia Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the economic impact of coronavirus on China.

BBC News - Coronavirus Outbreak (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish discussing the impact of the Coronavirus on the Chinese Economy

BBC World News - Coronavirus: Italy lockdown (Media Centre)

Cheif Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen discussing the Coronavirus response in Europe and the upcoming ECB meeting this week

CNBC - We were 'getting quite chirpy' about China before coronavirus outbreak, economist says (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 19 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising southern U.S. cases easily outweighing declines elsewhere.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 17 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The Memorial Day Covid wave is spreading across the South.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 12 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surging cases in parts of the U.S. south are straining hospitals; restrictions are coming.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 15 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The southern U.S. Covid picture is deteriorating rapidly.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 16 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Rising southern cases offsetting declines elsewhere.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Broad improvement hidden by data changes, but wave 2 is emerging in the south.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 18 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Southern U.S. hospitalizations are far below the NY peak, but there's no plan in place to stop them rising.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 24 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Hospitalizations up 5% Yesterday; Further Big Increases are Inevitable

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: More testing = more cases, but some southern states have real outbreaks.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 30 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New U.S. cases are rising rapidly, but has the rate of increase peaked?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hospitalizations are falling steadily despite noisy case data, but parts of the south are seeing cases jump.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 29 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The proportion of positive U.S. tests may be flattening; good news, if it persists.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 26 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Expect more U.S. reopenings to pause as cases and hospitalizations soar.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 11 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Steady overall new U.S. cases hide two very different stories.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 23 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New U.S. cases up an astounding 55% yesterday; hospitalizations rising.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 8 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A second wave is underway in parts of the South, and it's not all due to rising testing.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 25 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The second U.S. wave is spreading, and accelerating.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 22 (Publication Centre)

In one line: More states now having rising cases than falling.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 9 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Light at the End of the U.S. Tunnel; and Why are Swedish Cases Plunging?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 16 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Have U.S. second-wave deaths peaked already?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 15 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. cases are still rising, but aren't accelerating; hospitalizations steady.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 17 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Cases are now flat or falling in the first states to respond to the second wave; others to follow.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing U.S. data yesterday, but the rate of spread of Covid has peaked.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 20 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The U.S. second wave curve is bending; hospitalizations falling.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 14 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The peaking in new cases in Arizona should be followed elsewhere, soon.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 13 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Deaths Rising Steadily but Daily Hospitalizations have Stabilized

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 7th (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. deaths seem to have flattened; expect a clear drop by month-end.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 6th (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. cases probably aren't falling as fast as the data suggest

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Feb 28 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New cases outside China accelerating rapidly.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The rate of increase of U.S. cases is slowing; daily new cases to dip in late July?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 10 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. deaths are starting to rise, but new cases in Arizona have peaked.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 21 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better weekend U.S. data were no fluke; cases are peaking

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 22 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The second U.S. wave is cresting, but some states still seeing sharp increases in cases.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 6 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. data distorted by the holiday weekend, but some glimmers of hope.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 31 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. hospitalizations are now falling, but progress is very uneven.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 7 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Case growth is slowing; daily new cases to start falling in mid/late July

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 8 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The post-holiday jump doesn't change the big picture; less bad, at the margin.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hotspots on the U.S. Coasts, and the South; elsewhere, mostly improving.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 30 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. new cases falling slowly; deaths will rise until mid-August

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 29 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hospitalizations peaking, but new cases are still rising in many states.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 23 (Publication Centre)

In one line: State-by-state picture still very mixed even as U.S. national cases flatten.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 24 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Flattening U.S. hospitalization curve validates the signal from the new case data

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 27 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The U.S. second wave has crested, but the picture is varied across states.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update July 28 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New U.S. cases are now falling; deaths will peak by mid-August

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 10 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. regional split deepens; Germany reports rising cases.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 16 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Italian data confirm that aggressive testing and distancing measures work.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 18 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The downward trend in U.S. cases continues, but at a slower pace.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 15 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing U.S. numbers yesterday no cause for alarm; Germany has almost beaten Covid-19.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 19 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing U.S. data yesterday, but not disastrous; Florida's uptick is disconcerting.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Deaths set to reach 100K by late May, even as case numbers fall.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 20 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better news from Florida, but daily new cases still rising in some states.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 14 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Favorable trends across DM; no sign of rebounds after reopenings.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 13 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Cases are falling, and it's not just a New York story.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 6 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New global cases rising steadily, not exponentially, but Europe and U.S. outbreaks worsening.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. cases are falling, outside the meat-packing hotspots.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 11 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. Case growth is slow and slowing; what will reopening bring?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 12 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Positive U.S. tests dip below 5% as new case numbers start to tumble.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 21 (Publication Centre)

In one line: If the uptick in U.S. new cases is real, deaths will follow; don't bet on it.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 22 (Publication Centre)

In one line: More testing = more cases; evidence of a second wave is scant.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 7 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Falling U.S. deaths are a good sign as increased testing reveals more cases.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 6 (Publication Centre)

In one line: If it bleeds, it leads: Alarmist media are missing the continued slowdown in U.S. case growth.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 8 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Most U.S. states seeing slower case growth, despite increased testing.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update: March 11 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Europe outside Italy is in trouble; more days like yesterday will result in broad lockdowns.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update: March 9 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Covid-19 outbreaks fading in China, Korea; Elsewhere, not.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 5 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. case growth now well below the pace at the time Germany announced lockdown easing.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Germany is headed for near-zero new cases by the end of May.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 26 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. testing hits new highs, but cases still falling, just.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 27 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. data likely distorted by holiday lags, but a second wave may be emerging in parts of the South.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 28 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Test data anomalies make it hard to see case trends; deaths are falling.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update May 29 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The overall U.S. picture is improving slowly, but hotspots are worrying.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 5 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Fewer non-China cases overall than previous day, but the trend is still rising and the outbreak is accelerating outside the big four.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Outside the big four outbreaks, new cases are rising steadily; they aren't accelerating.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 19 (Publication Centre)

In one line: It's beatable: No new domestic China cases yesterday.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 18 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The rate of growth of new cases in Italy has levelled off; soon to decline?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New cases outside the major four outbreaks are accelerating.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 20 (Publication Centre)

New Asian Cases Ticking Higher; European Growth Steady, but Rapid

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 21 (Publication Centre)

Still Waiting for Results from Europe's Lockdowns; U.S. Cases Soaring

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 17 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lockdowns ought to slow case growth by early April.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 5th (Publication Centre)

In one line: The fall in new U.S. cases is real; it's not just due to reduced testing.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 12 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Drastic action is coming in Europe, soon.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 13 (Publication Centre)

Little Evidence that Italy's Lockdown is Working, Yet

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 14 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Infection rate data no longer reliable; death rates don't lie, and they are accelerating as the virus spreads.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 15 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hoping for Seasonality.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 22 (Publication Centre)

Possible Slowdowns in New Cases in NYC and Some European Countries

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 22 v2 (Publication Centre)

First Signs of a Turning Point in Europe as Case Growth Slows?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 29 (Publication Centre)

In one line: NYC making real progress, but rapid increases continue in several large states.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 3 (Publication Centre)

In one line: A slight slowing in the rate of increase outside China; Iran is the key exception.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 30 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Case growth is slowing in the U.S. and Europe, but Big Risks Remain

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 31 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Better news across most of Europe and the U.S., but some states stil face uncontained case growth.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 28 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Bending curves in NY, WA offset by rapid increases in other states; Italy continues to improve.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 27 (Publication Centre)

In one line: No slowdown yet in U.S. case growth; risk of explosive outbreaks in NJ, FL, LA.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 23 (Publication Centre)

European Covid-19 Case Growth Appears to be Slowing

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 24 (Publication Centre)

Two Straight Days of Better News from Italy; U.S. Still Deteriorating

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 25 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The U.S. Covid-19 Curve isn't bending yet.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 26 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. case growth is rapid but seems to be slowing, and beware the risk of explosive new hotspots.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update June 9 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. hospitalizations still falling steadily post-reopening, so far.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update March 10 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Global cases aren't accelerating, but Italy's nightmare deepens.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 13 (Publication Centre)

Daily U.S. Deaths Should Drop Clearly this Week

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 10 (Publication Centre)

New U.S. Case have Peaked but Europe and ANZ Doing Much Better

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 1 (Publication Centre)

In one line: As U.S. testing increases, the rate of growth of confirmed cases could rise again for a time.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 14 (Publication Centre)

Cases and Deaths Falling; U.S. Testing Still Inadequate

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 15 (Publication Centre)

Trends in U.S. Cases and Deaths are Falling, Despite Yesterday's Jumps

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 18 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Progress has slowed in the U.S. and Europe; Japan is miles behind.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 17 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Vigilance will be needed as lockdowns are eased; Covid-19 can spring back.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 16 (Publication Centre)

In one line: New U.S. cases per million will soon be at the levels which prompted easing lockdowns in Italy, Spain and Austria.

7 Feb 2020 Coronavirus Could be near-$100B Hit to Chinese GDP in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Nobody knows the damage China's virus- containment efforts will have on GDP, and we probably never will, for sure, given the opacity of the statistics.

5 Feb 2020 BoJ Reaction to the Coronavirus Could Damage Activity, Perversely (Publication Centre)

We've previously highlighted the pro-cyclical elements of the BoJ's framework, but it's worth repeating, when an economic shock comes along.

17 Feb 2020 The Coronavirus is a Threat to LatAm, But it Economies Won't Collapse (Publication Centre)

Over the past 30 years China's role in LatAm and the global economy has increased sharply. Its share of world trade has surged, and its exports have gained significant market share in LatAm.

14 Apr 2020 Coronavirus Infections Stabilising in DM, but LatAm is Way Behind (Publication Centre)

Last week, while we were taking our spring break at home, markets behaved relatively well in LatAm.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 4th (Publication Centre)

In one line: New cases and hospitalizations now falling in most U.S. states.

20 May 2020 Coronavirus Delivers a Tough Blow to Argentina's Struggling Economy (Publication Centre)

Hard data released in Argentina over the last month showed that the economy was struggling in early Q1, even before the Covid-19 hit.

25 Feb 2020 EZ Markets are Now Seriously Worried about Coronavirus (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a watershed moment for investors.

4 Feb 2020 Coronavirus will Keep Policymakers in the Andes on the Sidelines (Publication Centre)

Colombia's central bank has found a relatively sweet spot.

26 Feb 2020 Germany Faces Coronavirus Uncertainty in a Weakened State (Publication Centre)

The German economy finished last year on the back foot.

26 Feb 2020 Britain Less Vulnerable than Most to a Coronavirus-led Downturn (Publication Centre)

News that the Covid-19 virus has spread to more countries frayed investors' nerves further yesterday, with the FTSE 100 eventually residing 5.3% below its Friday close.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 2 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. deaths rocketing; Italy's are falling, with other western Europe not far behind.

31 Jan 2020 Ignore Korea's Upbeat Surveys: a Coronavirus Hit is Looming (Publication Centre)

The Bank of Korea's two main monthly economic surveys were very perky in January.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 5 (Publication Centre)

Slowing Growth in Cases Across the U.S.; Exceptions are PA, LA

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 4 (Publication Centre)

Case Growth Slowing Across DMs as Lockdown Effects Work Through

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 30 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The U.S. meat industry is the source of most new infection hotspots.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 7 (Publication Centre)

The U.S. Curve is a Week Behind Austria's; Can it Stay on Track?

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 8 (Publication Centre)

Florida Dodges the Covid Bullet; Curves Bending in most States

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 20 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Stubborn case growth and low testing makes U.S. re-opening risky.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update August 3rd (Publication Centre)

In one line: The fall in U.S. new cases is overstated by reduced testing.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 9 (Publication Centre)

Case Growth Slowing, but the U.S. Need to do Much More Testing

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 3 (Publication Centre)

More Testing = More Cases, but the True Rate of Spread Likely is Slowing

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 6 (Publication Centre)

Case Growth Slowing but Still Rapid in the U.S. and Much of Europe

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 23 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. cases rising steadily but should drop next week; Europe improving but Spanish case growth is stubborn.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 22 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The jump in U.S. cases yesterday looks like an outlier... we hope.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 29 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. deaths are falling, but the rise in testing seems to have stalled.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 21 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Easing lockdowns in the southern U.S. likely will trigger faster case growth.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 25 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Vastly increased testing is finding more U.S. cases, but deaths are falling.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 24 (Publication Centre)

In one line: U.S. testing finally gathering pace, but still behind the best in Europe.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 27 (Publication Centre)

In one line: More U.S. testing but falling positive rate is good news.

Pantheon Macro Daily Coronavirus Update Apr 28 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Is the U.S. on the brink of a sustained drop in new Covid-19 cases?

18 Mar 2020 LatAm Central Banks Joining the Tide of Global Monetary Easing (Publication Centre)

The global coronavirus pandemic is hitting the LatAm economy at a particularly vulnerable time, following last year's stuttering economic recovery, temporary shocks in key economies and the effect of the global trade war.

19 Feb 2020 Investor Sentiment Data Signal a Hit to the PMIs, or Do They (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German ZEW investor sentiment survey provided the first clear evidence of the coronavirus in the EZ survey data.

15 Apr 2020 Brazil's Economy will Rebound in Q3, but Bad Virus Policy is a Risk (Publication Centre)

The hard economic data in Brazil were relatively solid while we were off last week, supporting our view that the economy was experiencing a good spell at the start of the year just before the coronavirus hit.

18 Mar 2020 How Long Until the Labour Market Rolls Over? (Publication Centre)

The labour market was pretty robust before the coronavirus crisis.

2 Mar 2020 Will the BoE be Swept Along in the Global Rush to Ease? (Publication Centre)

Investors moved rapidly last week to price-in renewed easing by central banks around the world, in response to the rapid growth in coronavirus cases outside China and the resulting sell-off in equity markets.

16 Mar 2020 The Inflation Outlook won't Stop the MPC from Easing Further (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak and its associated movements in asset prices have radically changed the outlook for CPI inflation, which ultimately the MPC is tasked with targeting.

23 Mar 2020 The Growth of European Covid-19 Cases Slowed Sharply Yesterday (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of new coronavirus infections across Europe slowed yesterday, in some cases quite markedly. We can quibble about the reliability of the data in individual countries, given variations in testing regimes, but the picture is strikingly uniform.

24 Apr 2020 The Perfect Storm for Mexican Retailers and Consumers is Looming (Publication Centre)

The sharp decline in Mexico's leading indicators highlights the dramatic scale of the economic and financial hit from the coronavirus. High frequency data and the PMIs are the first numbers to capture the lockdown, and they signal that the services activity-- the bulk of Mexico's GDP--dropped sharply.

14 July 2020 The Pandemic is Far from Over in the Andes, Prolonging the Economic Hit (Publication Centre)

The Johns Hopkins database shows a mixed coronavirus picture in the Andes, with the trend in new cases still rising in Argentina and Colombia, but relatively flat for about the past two weeks in Peru.

22 May 2020 An Uptick in Sentiment Indicators, but Brazil's Covid Crisis Worsens (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus pandemic is wreaking havoc in Brazil.

21 July 2020 The Economic Recovery Continues, Despite High Rates of Covid Cases (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus ordeal continues in LatAm as a whole.

20 July 2020 The First Re-Reopening will be in Arizona in August, Other States Later (Publication Centre)

Just over four weeks after Mike Pence's spectacularly badly-timed Wall Street Journal Op-ed, entitled "There Isn't a Coronavirus Second Wave", the U.S. recorded 465K new cases in the week ended Saturday, easily the worst week of the pandemic to date.

10 June 2020 GDP Recovery Greatly Constrained by the Fitful Reopening of Schools (Publication Centre)

The government's decision to shelve plans to reopen primary schools fully later this month will ensure that GDP remains greatly below its precoronavirus level throughout the summer months.

10 Mar 2020 Virus-related Collapse in Services Spending to Trigger Q2 GDP Drop (Publication Centre)

We're now starting to see clear signs in unofficial data that households are slashing their expenditure on discretionary services, in order to minimise their chances of catching the coronavirus.

11 Feb 2020 Phase One Trade Deal Trumped the Virus in China's January PPI (Publication Centre)

The clear threat to demand posed by the coronavirus and China's efforts at containment have sent a shock wave through commodities markets.

10 Feb 2020 Temporary Shocks Causes Volatility in LatAm Inflation, Trends are Stable (Publication Centre)

Inflation data in Brazil, Mexico and Chile last week reinforced our view that interest rates will remain on hold, or be cut, over the coming meetings. The recent fall in oil prices, and the weakness of domestic demand, will offset recent volatility caused by the FX sell-off, driven mostly by the coronavirus story.

1 Apr 2020 Brazil and Chile Pre-Covid Data were Solid, but the Good News won't Last (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in LatAm are the last calm before the coronavirus storm.

24 Feb 2020 The PMIs are Lost in Translation, Here is What You Need to Know (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMIs were supposed to provide the first reliable piece of evidence of the coronavirus on euro area businesses, but they didn't. Instead, they left economists dazed, confused and scrambling for a suitable narrative.

11 Mar 2020 If Discretionary Spending Tracks the 9,11 and 2008 Paths, Look Out (Publication Centre)

It's just not possible to forecast the reaction of businesses and consumers to the coronavirus outbreak.

11 Mar 2020 Time for the Government to Reveal its Virus Response (Publication Centre)

We expect the Budget today to underwhelm investors who are eager to see a quick and powerful government response to the coronavirus outbreak.

13 Mar 2020 Market Meltdown Makes Further MPC Easing Likely on March 26 (Publication Centre)

The measures to support the economy through the coronavirus crisis, unveiled by policymakers on Budget day, exceeded expectations.

13 Feb 2020 Japan's M2 Still Points to a Growth Slowdown, Regardless of the Virus (Publication Centre)

Japan's money and credit data have shown signs of life in recent months, but that's all set to change quickly, due to the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

12 June 2020 Rising Covid Hospitalizations in the South are About Spread, not Testing (Publication Centre)

We have drawn attention over the past couple of weeks in our daily Coronavirus Update to the rising trend in new cases in some states, mostly in the South.

12 Feb 2020 How Much Spending will China's Retail Sector Lose this Year (Publication Centre)

In previous Monitors--see here--we've suggested that, thanks to the coronavirus, China simply will lose some of the spending that would have gone on during the holiday this year.

14 Apr 2020 Further Fed Action and Better Virus News Limits Downside S&P Risk (Publication Centre)

We argued a couple of weeks ago that the stock market could suffer a relapse, on the grounds that valuations hadn't fallen far enough from their peak to reflect the extent of the hit to the economy; that hopes for an early re-opening were likely to prove forlorn; and that investors were likely to be spooked by the incoming coronavirus data.

17 Feb 2020 Examining the Virus Hit to China's Economy Using Unorthodox Data (Publication Centre)

Data on air quality in China provide some useful insights into the economic disruptions--or lack thereof--caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus from Wuhan and the government's aggressive containment measures.

5 May 2020 Core Inflation is Set to Fall, but not Every Component will Drop (Publication Centre)

We're very comfortable with the idea that the coronavirus is a broad deflationary shock to the U.S. economy.

31 Mar 2020 Business and Consumer Confidence are Cratering, Further Falls Ahead (Publication Centre)

A pair of closely-watched reports today will confirm that business and consumer confidence is tanking in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.

30 Mar 2020 In Most of the U.S., the Covid Curve isn't Bending Yet, NY is Better (Publication Centre)

The U.S. coronavirus outbreak is not slowing. The curve is not bending much, if at all. Confirmed cases continue to increase at a steady rate, averaging 23% per day over the past three days.

6 Feb 2020 Korea's Trade Data for January Show a Modest Virus Hit, For Now (Publication Centre)

Korea's trade data for January provided the first real glimpse of the potential hit to international flows from the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

9 June 2020 The Severity of the Recession will Keep Inflation Low in the Andes (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak has pushed inflation lower in the Andean economies as the shock drives them into the deepest recession on record.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

PBoC rate cut still on the tame side but more is coming, China's Caixin manufacturing PMI yet to see virus damage, China's profits better than the headline suggests going into the coronavirus hit, Early signs of coronavirus damage in Korea's trade data, Surge in Korea's manufacturing PMI comes to a stop in January

ASIAN DATA WRAP 21 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Further weakness to come for Japan's manufacturing PMI. First services hit from the coronavirus is damning. Japan's all-industry activity index suggests the 2019 tax hike was as bad as 2014. A drop in food inflation was enough to offset lagged oil pressures in Japan's January CPI. Ignore the headline; the coronavirus is now hurting Korean exports.

30 Mar 2020 Covid-19 is a Battering Ram to EZ Economic Policymaking  (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak, by definition, will fade eventually, but we suspect the measures to combat it will be more long-lasting. In terms of sheer scale, EZ governments and the ECB are throwing the kitchen sink at the virus, but that's only half the story.

6 May 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector Collapsed in March, It will Slide Further in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak severely dented industrial activity in Brazil.

27 Mar 2020 Pre-Virus Q1 Data in Brazil and Mexico Supported More Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus pandemic looks set to spread rapidly throughout LatAm.

27 Jan 2020 Who are the Biggest Casualties of China's Travel Curbs (Publication Centre)

On Friday last week, the Chinese authorities suspended sales of domestic and international tours, in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus, which started in Wuhan.

3 Mar 2020 Which Covid-19 Data Matter More, New Cases or Log-Levels (Publication Centre)

Something of a debate appears to be underway in markets over the "correct" way to look at the coronavirus data.

28 Jan 2020 Containment Measures Could Mean a Quarterly Fall in Chinese GDP (Publication Centre)

As the situation with the coronavirus develops, and we gain more information on the authorities' response, it's becoming clear that the damage to Q1 GDP is going to be nasty.

26 May 2020 High Gilt Issuance no Sweat for Investors, for the Time Being (Publication Centre)

A decade of public deficit reduction was fully reversed in April, as the coronavirus tore through the economy.

28 July 2020 Congressional Face-Off Could Delay the Next Relief Bill Until September (Publication Centre)

House Democrats and Senate Republicans are so far apart on both the structure and the size of the next Coronavirus relief package that it's hard to see a bill passing Congress in less than a couple weeks or so, and it could easily take longer.

3 Mar 2020 A Bad Q1 for LatAm, DM Stimulus will be Only a Temporary Boost (Publication Centre)

It has been a nasty start to the year for LatAm as markets have been hit by renewed volatility in China, triggered by the coronavirus.

3 June 2020 Chile's Economy Collapses in Q2, but Q3 will be Slightly Better (Publication Centre)

Chile's near-term economic outlook is still negative after a sharp resurgence of coronavirus cases.

Eurozone Webinar March 2020: How will the ECB respond to the Coronavirus, if at all? (Media Centre)

How will the ECB respond to the Coronavirus, if at all?

U.S. Webinar March 2020: The U.S. Economy: Navigating Through the Coronavirus Outbreak (Media Centre)

The U.S. Economy: Navigating Through the Coronavirus Outbreak

The Times - Economists raise forecasts of impact on global economy (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on China and the Coronavirus

Bloomberg Surveillance : U.S. In Good Shape, Laidler Says (Podcast) (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing the Fed and the Coronavirus

24 Jan 2020 China's Economy is More Exposed to Deadly Disease now, than in 2003 (Publication Centre)

We can't yet know how bad the spread of the coronavirus from the Chinese city of Wuhan will be.

BBC News - Coronavirus: Record number of Americans file for unemployment (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on today's U.S. Unemployment data

City A.M. - UK economy set to return to growth in third quarter after coronavirus chaos (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K PMI

BBC News - Coronavirus pushes German economy into recession (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the German economy

Financial Times - UK retail sales weak before coronavirus lockdown (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Retail Sales in February

Guardian - UK economy already flatlining before coronavirus, figures reveal (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP in February

The Hill - Federal Reserve's efforts on coronavirus raise eyebrows (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest from the Fed

Trading Global Markets Decoded Podcast - Coronavirus and the Chinese Economy (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics Freya Beamish discusses her views on the Chinese economy.

The New Yorker - The G.O.P.'s Latest Coronavirus Stimulus Doesn't Take Into Account Trump's Blundering (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the effect of Covid19 on the U.S. Economy

CNBC - We shouldn't worry about the deficit right now, economist says (Media Centre)

David Bahnsen, managing partner and chief investment officer of the Bahnsen Group, and Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, join "Squawk Box" to discuss the markets and the government measures being taken to stimulate the economy amid the coronavirus outbreak.

CNBC - Surge in liquidity the single biggest driver of the stock market, economist says (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses the global economic impact of the coronavirus crisis.

Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast - February 25th 2020 (Media Centre)

Ben Laidler, Tower Hudson Research CEO, thinks U.S. equities are in much better shape than many people think they are. Ian Shepherdson, Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist, thinks the Fed could be close to the point of taking action on the coronavirus. Gina Martin Adams, Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Equity Strategist, says market uncertainty makes in almost impossible to take a three-year view. Dr. Peter Hotez, Baylor College of Medicine Dean, breaks down the most recent efforts to combat the coronavirus. Kevin Cirilli, Bloomberg Chief Washington Correspondent, says tonight's debate is most critical for Joe Biden.

Bloomberg - Virus Causing Permanent, Lasting Damage to Jobs: Economist Shepherdson (Media Centre)

he services sector is seeing "job losses that will not be quickly recovered," says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, as he examines the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the U.S. labor market. He speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

CNBC - Policymakers need to provide liquidity and support to businesses, economist says (Media Centre)

Freya Beamish, chief Asia economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, discusses how policymakers are responding to the coronavirus crisis.

3 Feb 2020 China's January Survey Data Imply Weakness before the Virus Hit (Publication Centre)

The official PMIs suggest that the January survey data have escaped the worst of the hit from the virus.

3 Feb 2020 Chile to Perform Relatively Well this Year, the Protest Shock will Ease (Publication Centre)

Chile's stronger-than-expected industrial production report for December, and less-ugly-than- feared retail sales numbers, confirmed that the hit from the Q4 social unrest on economic activity is disappearing.

3 Feb 2020 The Eurozone Economy all but Stalled at the End of 2019 (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance Q4 growth numbers in the EZ were a bit of a dumpster fire.

3 June 2020 Cash Injections Have Contained Corporate Insolvencies, For Now (Publication Centre)

April's money and credit figures show that relatively few firms suffered from a lack of liquidity at the beginning of the Covid-19 crisis.

3 Aug 2020 MPC to Remain Coy on the Negative Rates Question This Week (Publication Centre)

Investors probably are right to expect this week's MPC meeting to lack drama.

3 Mar 2020 China's PMIs Mean Our GDP Downgrades are the Right Call (Publication Centre)

Last week we made a big call and further downgraded our China GDP forecasts for Q1; daily data and survey evidence suggested that our initial take, though grim, had not been grim enough.

3 Aug 2020 Flat Near-Real-Time Indicators don't Mean Flat Third Quarter GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

The broadly flat trend in the near-real-time indicators of economic activity shows few signs of ending.

29 May 2020 The Government will Blink on Brexit, Though Not Until the Last Minute (Publication Centre)

For now, the U.K. government still insists that the Brexit transition period will end in December, regardless of whether a new trade deal has been negotiated with the E.U. or not.

29 June 2020 The Third Quarter Rebound is at Risk as the South Reimposes Restrictions (Publication Centre)

The stock market did not like the renewed closure of bars in Texas and Florida, announced Friday morning.

29 May 2020 The Pandemic is Worsening in the Andes, Despite the Quick Response (Publication Centre)

We were expecting the pandemic in the Andes to reach a plateau over the coming weeks, given the quick response of regional governments to fight the virus.

3 Apr 2020 Markets are Stabilizing, but Incoming Data will Confirm a Deep Recession (Publication Centre)

LatAm financial and FX markets have behaved relatively well in recent sessions, thanks to the array of monetary and fiscal measures taken to counter the severe risk-off environment.

3 Apr 2020 Unemployment Is Soaring, How Far Will it Rise? (Publication Centre)

The limited data available on the state of the labour market, since the government forced businesses to close two weeks ago, paint a disconcerting picture.

3 Mar 2020 Expect a "One and Done" Virus Response from the MPC (Publication Centre)

The Bank of England issued a statement yesterday that it is "working closely with HM Treasury and the FCA--as well as our international partners--to ensure all necessary steps are taken to protect financial and monetary stability".

30 Apr 2020 The Fed is Doing all it Can (Publication Centre)

The Fed's statement yesterday was unsurprising, acknowledging a "sharp" decline in economic activity and a significant tightening of financial conditions, which has "impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses."

31 Jan 2020 Services Output Supported a Weakening Mexican Economy in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of full-year 2019 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was extremely poor, due to domestic and external shocks.

30 Mar 2020 The Covid-19 Sovereign Credit Rating Downgrades are Here (Publication Centre)

The massive hit from low oil prices, Covid-19 and President AMLO's willingness to call snap referendums on projects already under construction is putting pressure on Mexico's sovereign credit fundamentals and ratings.

30 Mar 2020 Should Holders of Gilts Fear the Impending Surge in Issuance? (Publication Centre)

The economic downturn and the Chancellor's unprecedented fiscal measures mean that public borrowing likely will be about four times higher, in the forthcoming fiscal year, than anticipated in the Budget just over two weeks ago.

31 Jan 2020 EZ Core Inflation is Set to Drop More than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that German inflation roared higher at the start of the year, but the devil is in the detail.

29 June 2020 New Gilt Issuance Projections will Imply Rising Private Sector Holdings (Publication Centre)

Investors active in the government bond market will be awaiting today, at 07:30 BST, the publication by the Debt Management Office of its updated Financing Remit for the upcoming three months. The new Remit will show that gilt sales, net of redemptions, will be lower in Q3 than in Q2.

30 June 2020 Debt has Kept Firms Afloat for Now, but a Winter Reckoning is Coming (Publication Centre)

May's money and credit data show that Covid-19 has not pushed many businesses immediately over the edge.

30 June 2020 Argentina's Economic Nightmare will Continue, Despite Bottoming in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that Argentina's economy remains a mess.

30 Jan 2020 Don't Panic Over the Slump in EZ M3 Growth, M1 Still Looks Firm (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the euro area were mixed.

30 Jan 2020 Fed Policy Still "Appropriate", FOMC Watching Virus Story "Very Carefully" (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's FOMC , announcing a unanimous vote for no change in the funds rate, is almost identical to December's.

31 Jan 2020 The Wage Growth Gap Persists: No Sign Yet of a Labor Scarcity Premium (Publication Centre)

It's a myth that the 10-ye ar decline in the unemployment rate has not driven up the pace of wage growth.

30 July 2020 The Surge in the Money Supply Poses No Inflation Threat (Publication Centre)

June's money and credit data show that firms have accumulated a large cash pile since the start of the Covid-19 outbreak, despite sales falling through the floor.

30 Apr 2020 Footfall Data Highlight the Wide Range of "Lockdowns" in Asia (Publication Centre)

Google's Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports have come raging into fashion in recent weeks, providing a glimpse of the damage done by lockdowns across the world.

27 Mar 2020 Brace for a Double-Digit Drop in Retail Sales During the Lockdown (Publication Centre)

February's retail sales figures highlighted that consumers' spending was flagging even before the Covid-19 outbreak.

28 Apr 2020 Brazil's BRL in the Eye of the Storm, Due to Rising Political Risk and Covid (Publication Centre)

After falling close to 5% last week, the Ibovespa rallied about 3.5% yesterday. Investors reacted positively to President Bolsonaro's expression of support for his Economy Minister, Paulo Guedes, after market concerns about tensions between them.

27 July 2020 Don't Be Fooled by Temporary Strength in Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

June's surge in retail sales is not a sign that households' total spending is zipping back to pre- downturn levels.

28 Apr 2020 Buckle up for the first Covid-19 hit to the EZ Hard Economic Data (Publication Centre)

This week's data will offer the first clear hard evidence of the Covid-19 shock to the EZ economy. Thursday's calendar is the main event, with advance Q1 GDP data, March EZ unemployment numbers, and the April CPI report.

28 Apr 2020 No Bazooka from the BoJ, but More Support for Firms and Banks (Publication Centre)

The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan stepped up its Covid-19 liquidity relief measures yesterday, while retaining its main policy settings--namely, the -0.10% balance rate and the ten-year yield target of "around zero percent".

28 Apr 2020 The Fed is More Likely To Pursue Curve Control than Negative Rates (Publication Centre)

The Fed meeting today is unlikely to bring any significant policy shifts, mostly because the Fed has done everything we thought would be necessary once it became clear how badly the economy would be hit by Covid-19.

27 Feb 2020 Yesterday's Measures from China Help Avert Full-Blown Debt Crisis (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's State Council meeting significantly expanded support to the economy, through a number of channels.

27 Feb 2020 Survey Data in France were Stable and Solid Midway through Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 scare can be split into two stages, the initial outbreak in China, concentrated in Wuhan, and the now-worrying signs that clusters are forming in other parts of the world, primarily in South Korea, the Middle East and Italy.

27 Apr 2020 If 21% of NYC has had Covid, Herd Immunity is Possible this Year (Publication Centre)

It's impossible to overstate the potential importance of last week's announcement by N.Y. Governor Cuomo that antibody testing suggests about one in five people in New York City have already been infected with Covid-19.

31 July 2020 Every Employment Indicator is Continuing to Glow Bright Red (Publication Centre)

We remain concerned that huge job losses are imminent, slowing the economic recovery after a mid-summer spurt.

27 Apr 2020 Oil Price Plunge is a BoJ Headache in More Ways than One (Publication Centre)

The collapse in oil prices looks near-certain to pull Japan back into deflation in the next few months, though the BoJ normally looks through oil-induced swings in its target inflation measure.

27 Apr 2020 The EU's Political Leaders are in a Trap of their own Making (Publication Centre)

Last week's European Council meeting provided little in the way of clarity over the likelihood of a jointly financed response to support economies through the Covid-19 outbreak.

27 Feb 2020 Non-China Covid-19 Spread is Slowing but Big Market Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of Covid-19 cases outside China appears to have peaked, for now, but we can't yet have any confidence that this represents a definitive shift in the progress of the epidemic.

28 Feb 2020 EZ Money Growth is still a Glimmer of Light amid Market Panic (Publication Centre)

Headline M3 money supply growth in the Eurozone was steady as a rock at around 5% year-over-year between 2014 and the end of 2017.

28 Feb 2020 Sterling won't Be a Safe Haven if Covid-19 Triggers a Global Slump (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 outbreak has rattled equity markets, but has not had a major bearing on DM currencies, yet.

29 Jan 2020 Fed on Hold, Awaiting Macro or Virus Developments, IOER to Rise (Publication Centre)

The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.

29 Jan 2020 Brazil External Accounts Weakened in 2019, but Are Not a Concern Yet (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were a relatively bright spot again last year.

29 Jan 2020 We Hear You Mme President, but We Still Think You're on Autopilot (Publication Centre)

Our ECB-story since Ms. Lagarde took the helm as president has been that the central bank will do as little as possible through 2020, at least in terms of shifting its major policy tools.

29 Jan 2020 What Policy Measures Can we Expect to Cushion Corona-impact (Publication Centre)

The extent of shut downs within China is now reaching extreme levels, going far beyond services and threatening demand for commodities, as well as posing a severe risk to the nascent upturn in the tech cycle.

29 July 2020 Brazil's Improving External Accounts Strengthens the Case for a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts remain relatively solid, making it easier for the country to withstand any potential external or domestic threat.

29 Apr 2020 Surveyed Inflation Expectations in the EZ are Soaring, What Gives? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's French INSEE consumer confidence data provided a fascinating glimpse into the reality for households during these strange times. The headline index fell by "just" eight points in April, to 95 from 103 in March, comfortably beating the consensus for a crash to 80.

29 Apr 2020 Brazil's Political Turmoil is Putting Policymakers on a Difficult Spot (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil remained subdued at the start of the second quarter, strengthening the odds for an additional interest rate cut next month, and opening the door for further stimulus in June.

28 Feb 2020 The Bank of Korea Hangs Tough, Targeted Measures Only for Now (Publication Centre)

The BoK surprised markets and commentators by keeping rates unchanged at 1.25% yesterday, rather than cutting to 1.0%.

28 Feb 2020 The Fed Can't Stand by as Markets Melt, Expect Easing at Any Time (Publication Centre)

The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.

28 Feb 2020 Upside Risk for Mexican Retail Sales, but Total Consumption is What Matters (Publication Centre)

Retail sales in Mexico fell in Q4, but we think households' spending will continue to contribute to GDP growth in the first quarter, at the margin.

28 Jan 2020 Germany Can't Catch a Break, The IFO Still Signals Very Slow Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO data reversed the good vibes sent by last week's upbeat German PMIs.

29 July 2020 Disposable Incomes are Heading for their Biggest Annual Post-War Drop (Publication Centre)

The 2008-to-09 recession was a mild experience for most households which remained employed and benefited from a huge decline in mortgage rates.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

China PMI chimes with our GDP downgrade last week. China's non-manufacturing PMI weakest on construction. Japan's MoF capex numbers point to Q4 GDP downgrade. Ignore the consensus-beating headline, Korean exports were abysmal in February, calendar effects aside. The virus now has infected Korea's PMI; expect business surveys to get a lot worse.

7 Feb 2020 A Weak Economy Could Challenge COPOM's View that Easing is Over (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian central bank cut the benchmark Selic interest rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, on Wednesday night, as expected.

7 Aug 2020 Brazil Likely will Keep Rates on Hold, as Long as the Economy Recovers (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- COPOM--met expectations on Wednesday, voting unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 2.00%.

7 Feb 2020 December's Crash in German Factory Orders is an Outlier (Publication Centre)

Our hope for a year-end jump in German factory orders was laughably optimistic.

7 July 2020 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue in Q3? (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been terrible. The worst of the recession seems to be over, but recent hard data have underscored the severity of the shock and made it clear that the recovery has a long way to go.

8 Apr 2020 February GDP Data to Show Little Pre-Virus Momentum (Publication Centre)

February's GDP report, released on Thursday, likely will show that the economy continued to struggle for momentum, despite the fillip to sentiment stemming from the general election.

7 Apr 2020 The Trio of March Data Looks Bad, But Worse is to Come in April (Publication Centre)

A trio of data releases yesterday provided no relief from the run of abysmal economic news.

7 Apr 2020 Re-Opening the EU's Economies and a Joint Stimulus Response (Publication Centre)

There are only two stories that matter for EZ investors at the moment, and neither of them is related to the economic data.

6 Mar 2020 Bad to Worse for Korea's Q1, but MERS Shows Rebound Potential (Publication Centre)

The rapid escalation of Covid-19 cases in Korea in recent weeks has broadened the likely damage to the economy this quarter.

6 Mar 2020 Are Migration and Climate Change Challenges Uniting the EU (Publication Centre)

In today's Monitor, we'll let the economy be, and focus instead on what are fast becoming the two defining political issues for the EU and its new Commission, namely migration and climate change.

6 Mar 2020 Brazil's Economic Recovery to Continue, if Covid-19 Allows it (Publication Centre)

Data released on Wednesday, along with the BCB's press release on Tuesday, supported our longstanding forecast of further rate cuts in Brazil in the very near term.

6 Mar 2020 Job Gains Likely Slowed Last Month, but the Covid-19 Hit is Still to Come (Publication Centre)

We think today's February payroll number will be reported at about 140K, undershooting the 175K consensus.

6 Mar 2020 The Near-Term Fiscal Boost from the Budget Will Be Modest (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak faces a tough first gig on Wednesday, when he delivers the long-awaited Budget.

8 July 2020 A Stamp Duty Cut Wouldn't Send the Housing Market into Overdrive (Publication Centre)

Speculation has mounted in the press that the Chancellor will raise the threshold for Stamp Duty Land Tax temporarily to £500K, from £125K, in today's Summer Statement.

8 July 2020 Inflation will Stay Comfortably Low in the Andes Over the Second Half (Publication Centre)

The rate of increase of Covid-19 new cases in the Andes is still rapid, but it seems to have peaked in recent days in most countries.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 12 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's monetary and credit trends were looking better, but now stand to be damaged by... the virus scare. Virus hit still to come for Japanese machine tool orders? Korea's jobless rate is back to its pre-August one-off plunge.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 11 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 efforts in Korea, plus Q1 front-loading of jobs budget, result in February surprise.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 9 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Rebound in Chinese trade will be hampered in the short run by virus disruptions around the world. PBoC leant against Covid-19 pressures on the RMB... a far cry from January's Phase One rally. Japan's Q4 GDP nose-dive downgraded on weaker private and public investment. Japan's current account surplus is facing strong crosscurrents.

US Datanote: Fed Announces New Measures (Publication Centre)

In one line: Whatever it takes.

26 May 2020 Reopening Risks Overstated by Hugely Increased Testing (Publication Centre)

The closer we look at the data, the less concerned we are at the painfully slow decline in the number of new daily confirmed Covid-19 cases.

9 Mar 2020 January GDP to Highlight Pre- Virus Momentum in Growth (Publication Centre)

January's GDP report, released on Wednesday, was set to be one of the most important data releases of this year, due to its role in providing the first official steer on the economy's post-election performance.

9 Mar 2020 Tanking Japanese Overtime Points to a Technical Recession (Publication Centre)

Labour cash earnings in Japan ostensibly started the year strongly, jumping by 1.5% year-over-year in January, much better than December's 0.2% slip.

8 June 2020 Mexico's Survey Data are on the Mend, but a Full Recovery is Distant (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions remain challenging in Mexico, despite a modest improvement in leading indicators. The usual surveys currently are not well-suited to capture the economy's upturn from the Covid-19 collapse.

9 Apr 2020 How Will the Government Navigate its Way out of the Lockdown? (Publication Centre)

The lockdown in Britain that began two-and-a half weeks ago is starting to stem the number of new infections.

9 Mar 2020 Global Virus Cases Accelerating, but China and Korea Show it's Beatable (Publication Centre)

A third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks is now underway. The first, in China, is now under control, and the rate of increase of cases in South Korea has dropped sharply. The other second wave countries, Italy and Iran, are still struggling.

9 Mar 2020 More Good News in the EZ, which Doesn't Mean Anything (Publication Centre)

Leave it to an economist to tell contradictory stories; German manufacturing orders, at the start of the year, rose at their fastest pace since 2014, but it doesn't mean anything.

6 Feb 2020 Suddenly, the Composite PMI in the EZ Rose Slightly in January (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data in the Eurozone were better than we expected.

5 May 2020 Money Data Highlight Bounce-back Potential Once the Virus Ends (Publication Centre)

The surge in the broad money supply in March, as the U.K.'s lockdown began, suggests that businesses are in relatively good shape to survive a multi-month period of greatly depressed demand.

4 Mar 2020 Brazil's Survey Data Point to a Steady Upturn, but it will Stutter Soon (Publication Centre)

The key story in Brazil this year remains one of gradual recovery, but downside risks have increased sharply, due mainly to challenging external conditions.

4 June 2020 How Big will be the Covid-19 Hit to House Prices? (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 has taken a large and immediate toll on house prices, but bigger damage likely lies ahead.

4 Mar 2020 More to Come from the Fed, but Fiscal Policy has to Step Up too (Publication Centre)

We aren't in the business of trying to divine the explanation for every twist and turn in the stock market at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.

4 Mar 2020 Revisions Aside, India's Q4 GDP isn't Worrying, nor is the Virus Risk (Publication Centre)

India's GDP report for the fourth quarter surprised to the upside, with the economy growing by 4.7% year-over-year, against the Bloomberg median forecast of 4.5%.

4 Mar 2020 The Policy Put is Alive and Well, the ECB will Follow the Fed (Publication Centre)

Markets were left somewhat disappointed yesterday by the G7 statement that central banks and finance ministers stand ready "to use all appropriate policy tools to achieve strong, sustainable growth and safeguard against downside risks."

4 Feb 2020 Focus on the (Publication Centre)

The near-term performance for EZ manufacturing will be a tug-of-war between positive technical factors, and a still-poor fundamental outlook.

4 Feb 2020 Early PBoC Rate Cut Confirms Official Worry Over Virus fallout (Publication Centre)

The PBoC yesterday cut its 7-day and 14-day reverse repo rate by 10bp, to 2.40% and 2.55% respectively, while injecting RMB 1.2T through open market operations.

4 Aug 2020 Chile's Economic Recovery Started Strongly in June, Despite the Virus (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days confirmed the intensity of the Covid-related shock to the Chilean economy in Q2.

31 Mar 2020 Will Housing Market Activity See a V-Shaped Recovery This Year? (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 has cut short a nascent recovery in housing market activity.

4 Aug 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but it has not Recovered (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, sustained ISM manufacturing readings around the July level, 54.2, would be consistent with GDP growth of about 2% year-over-year.

4 Aug 2020 Rising Covid-19 Infections Signal no Further Net Reopening (Publication Centre)

The continued gradual rise in new confirmed cases of Covid-19 lends more weight to the idea that the economy already has reopened as much as possible while containing the virus.

4 Feb 2020 Consumer Fundamentals Will Support Spending, Look at Redbook (Publication Centre)

The fundamentals underpinning our forecast of solid first half growth in consumers' spending remain robust.

4 May 2020 Korea's First Deficit in Eight Years Presages the Trade-Driven Q2 Hit (Publication Centre)

Korean exports hit a brick wall in April, unsurprisingly, as lockdowns across the non- China world dealt a body blow to demand.

4 May 2020 How Might the MPC Refine Its Support Schemes this Week? (Publication Centre)

The MPC won't stand idly by on Thursday, despite having moved decisively to support the economy in March.

5 Mar 2020 Does the Fed's Cut Open the Asian Floodgates for Rate Reductions (Publication Centre)

The Fed's unscheduled 50bp cut on Tuesday opens up some space for Asian central banks to follow suit.

5 Mar 2020 ADP Likely Overstates February Payrolls, but Everything will Change (Publication Centre)

The comforting 183K increase in February private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday likely overstates tomorrow's official number.

5 Mar 2020 How far Will EZ Services Fall, and Will it Cause a Recession (Publication Centre)

It will take a while for the economic data in the euro area fully to reflect the Covid-19 shock, but the incoming numbers paint an increasingly clear picture of an improving economy going into the outbreak.

5 Mar 2020 Will the MPC Cut Rates Before its Late March Meeting? (Publication Centre)

Speculation mounted yesterday that the MPC will follow the U.S. Fed and cut interest rates before its next meeting on March 26.

5 May 2020 Chile Shows First Signs of the Covid-19 Hit, More Pain to Come (Publication Centre)

The recent March economic activity reports for Chile have been terrible, showing the first signs of the Covid-19 shock, and worse is to come.

5 June 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Suffering, but the Worst is Likely Over (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's industrial production report in Brazil was terrible, despite overshooting market expectations.

5 Feb 2020 A Poor Finish to 2019 for Brazil's Industry, COPOM to Cut Rates (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed that the recovery was stuttering at the end of last year.

4 May 2020 Permanent Change is Rare, but Some Covid Effects will Last Many Years (Publication Centre)

We're hearing a lot about permanent changes to the economy in the wake of Covid-19, but that might not be the right description. Not much is permanent, and assuming permanence in just about anything, therefore, is risky.

5 Aug 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Showing Solid Signs of Gradual Stabilization (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in Brazil underscored that the Covid-related shock on the industrial sector is finally easing, as the economy gradually reopens.

5 Aug 2020 Mortgage Refinancing will Support Incomes Immaterially This Year (Publication Centre)

The economy will endure a sluggish recovery from Covid-19 this year, even if a second wave of the virus is avoided, partly because monetary stimulus is not filtering through powerfully to households.

5 Aug 2020 Upside Risk for ADP Today, but the Uncertainty is Great (Publication Centre)

The advance indicators of July payrolls are wildly contradictory, so you should be prepared for anything from a consensus-busting jump to a renewed outright drop, in both Friday's official numbers and today's ADP report.

31 Mar 2020 Covid-19 Brings More Economic Pain for Argentina, and Bondholders (Publication Centre)

The virus outbreak has been relatively limited so far in Argentina, with 820 confirmed cases, but the numbers are rising rapidly.

13 Mar 2020 QE4 Underway, Expect the Fed to Extend it Next Week (Publication Centre)

The NY Fed's announcement yesterday restarts QE. The $60B of bill purchases previously planned for the period from March 13 through April 13 will now consist of $60B purchases "across a range of maturities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding".

16 Apr 2020 Jobless Claims Look Set to Fall Sharply, but Remain Insanely High (Publication Centre)

For all the excitement generated by yesterday's raft of appalling economic reports, the weekly jobless claims numbers still offer the best, and almost real-time, guide to the big picture.

16 Apr 2020 China Faces an Historic GDP Contraction, March to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

A sizeable drop in China's year-over-year GDP in Q1 is now the consensus view, after 6.0% growth in Q4.

16 June 2020 How Much Extra QE will the MPC Announce This Week? (Publication Centre)

We agree with the majority of economists that the MPC will announce on Thursday another £100B of asset purchases, primarily of gilts, once it has completed the £200B of purchases it authorised on March 19.

16 June 2020 Lockdowns Continue to Put the Andean Economies Under Strain (Publication Centre)

Economic activity remains under severe strain in the Andes.

16 Mar 2020 Damaged Global Demand will Curtail China's Recovery Potential (Publication Centre)

The sharply increased virus spread outside China has lead to a serious downgrade in the global GDP growth outlook.

15 May 2020 Banxico Lowers Rates, Signals More to Come as the Economy Plunges (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers stuck to the script yesterday and voted unanimously to cut the main rate by 50bp to 5.50%, its lowest level in more than three years.

15 June 2020 The Recovery in GDP will Lose Momentum as the Year Drags On (Publication Centre)

The economy will be a shadow of its former self over the remainder of this year, following the heavy pummelling from Covid-19.

14 Feb 2020 Banxico Cuts Rates, Brazil's Domestic Demand Eased in Q4 (Publication Centre)

It was no surprise that Banxico cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.00% yesterday, following similar moves in August, September, November and December.

13 May 2020 Could a Savings Run Down Revitalise the Post-Virus Economy? (Publication Centre)

Analysis of the economy's potential to recover later this year from extreme weakness in Q2 has focussed largely on the extent to which virus-related restrictions will be lifted.

26 Feb 2020 Time for a Further Downgrade of Chinese Q1 GDP (Publication Centre)

In our Webinar--see here--we laid out scenarios for Chinese GDP in Q1 and for this year.

14 Feb 2020 Upticks in Smaller CPI Components and Rent Healthcare Pose Threats (Publication Centre)

The 0.242% increase in the January core CPI left the year-over-year rate at 2.3% for the third straight month.

14 July 2020 PAYE Data to Show Employment Continued to Fall in June (Publication Centre)

We're bracing for another ugly set of labour market data on Thursday, showing that both employment and earnings fell sharply in May and June.

16 Mar 2020 Is EZ Fiscal Policy Finally Stepping Up? And if So, What will it Do? (Publication Centre)

EZ investors are still trying to come to grips with last week's terrifying price action, culminating in the 12.5% crash in equities on Thursday

17 Apr 2020 Low Inflation in LatAm Allows Central Banks to Ease Further in Q2 (Publication Centre)

LatAm currencies fell sharply in Q1 but the hit hasn't yet pushed inflation higher.

18 Mar 2020 Further Downgrades of our Japan GDP Forecasts (Publication Centre)

China's data on Monday were beyond dire, leading to a dramatic downward revision of our already grim Q1 GDP forecasts for the country.

18 Feb 2020 Q4 was an Abrupt End to Japan's early 2019 Mirage (Publication Centre)

We've continuously warned that Japan's national accounts weren't sitting easily with the underlying signals from survey data, and monetary conditions, through last year.

18 May 2020 How to Decipher This Week's Labour Market Report (Publication Centre)

This week's labour market report--primarily reflecting conditions in March, though some data refer to April--will lift the veil on the initial economic damage from Covid-19, though the full horror will emerge only later.

18 May 2020 GDP in Brazil and Colombia to Fall Even Further in Q2, Q3 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday confirmed an appalling end to the first quarter for the Brazilian and Colombian economies. In Brazil, the March IBC-Br, a monthly proxy for GDP, plunged 5.9% month-to-month, close to expectations.

19 Feb 2020 Colombia's Economy is Resilient, but External Threats Have Risen (Publication Centre)

Colombia's GDP report, released last week, confirmed that it was the fastest growing economy in LatAm and everything suggests that it likely will lead the ranking again this year.

18 Feb 2020 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Late Q4, but it Will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively weak footing. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 0.3% month- to-month, pushing down the adjusted year-over- year rate to 0.3%, from a downwardly-revised 0.7% increase in November.

17 Mar 2020 Bolder Policy Action Required to Prevent a Prolonged Recession (Publication Centre)

Signs that the economy has been crippled by people's response to the Covid-19 outbreak continued to emerge yesterday.

17 Apr 2020 U.S. Case Growth Slowing to Rates Where First Euro Lockdowns Eased (Publication Centre)

The absence of an internationally agreed set of guidelines for easing lockdowns means that such decisions ultimately are political in nature.

17 Apr 2020 Will Moral Suasion be Enough to Slow the Virus Outbreak in Japan (Publication Centre)

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe last Tuesday finally declared a state of emergency for a month in parts of Japan, after weeks of dithering.

17 Feb 2020 Growth Forecasts in the EZ are about to come down (Publication Centre)

Friday' second Q4 GDP estimate revealed that the EZ economy barely grew at the end of 2019. The report confirmed that GDP rose by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, slowing from a 0.3% rise in Q3, but the headline only narrowly avoided downward revision to zero, at just 0.058%

17 June 2020 April's Decline in Employment is Just the Start (Publication Centre)

At first glance, the latest labour market data appear to be contradictory.

13 Mar 2020 Mr. Trichet's Infamous 2011 Policy Mistake Just Got Bested (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting was a tragedy in two acts. Markets were initially underwhelmed by the concrete measures unveiled, and they were then shell-shocked by Ms. Lagarde's performance in the press conference.

13 Mar 2020 LatAm in Peril as the Virus Drives Markets into Panic Mode (Publication Centre)

LatAm governments and policymakers are bracing for a more dramatic and longer virus-led downturn than initially expected.

10 Mar 2020 Expect China's Imports to Deteriorate Further this Month (Publication Centre)

China's trade balance flipped to an unadjusted deficit of $7.1B in the first two months of the year, from a $47.2B surplus in December.

10 June 2020 Banxico will Cut Rates this Month, Despite the Inflation Rebound in May (Publication Centre)

This week's data have offered further clear hard evidence of the Covid-19 shock to the Mexican economy, supporting our base case of further interest rate cuts in the coming monetary policy meetings.

10 Mar 2020 Heightened Uncertainty Persists in EM, as Oil Prices Continue to Fall (Publication Centre)

Most countries in LatAm are now fighting a complex global environment; a viral outbreak of biblical proportions and plunging oil prices, after last week's OPEC fiasco.

10 Mar 2020 It's Getting Sporty, a Brief Look at the Chaos in EZ Financial Markets (Publication Centre)

In this Monitor we'll let the data be, and try to make some sense of the recent market volatility from a Eurozone perspective, with an eye to the implications for the economy and policymakers' actions.

10 Mar 2020 Oil Sector Capex is Set to Collapse, Outweighing Consumers' Gain (Publication Centre)

The collapse in oil prices was the immediate trigger for the 7.6% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday, but the underlying reason is the Covid-19 epidemic.

10 Feb 2020 The Noose Tightens on Eurozone Optimists, Will the ECB Cut Rates? (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data in the core EZ economies, for December, were startlingly poor. In Germany, industrial production plunged by 3.5% month-to-month, comfortably reversing the revised 1.2% rise in November.

10 Feb 2020 Lack of Chinese Trade Data Invites Speculation... so Here Goes (Publication Centre)

China's January trade data were scheduled for release on Friday, but instead, the customs authority delayed the publication, saying it would publish the numbers with the February data

1 June 2020 The Brazilian Economy Collapsed in Q1, but Much Worse is to Come (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days have started to reveal a story of horror and misery in the Brazilian economy.

1 July 2020 Q1 GDP Weaker than First Thought, Amid Rapid Consumer Retrenchment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national accounts showed that the downturn in the economy on the eve of the Covid-19 outbreak was sharper than first estimated.

1 May 2020 Job Losses are Slowing, but Remain Hugely Elevated (Publication Centre)

The drop in jobless claims to 3,839K in the week ended April 25, from 4,442K in the previous week, leaves the data still terrible, but markedly less terrible than at the 6,867K peak in late March.

1 May 2020 Mexico's GDP Collapsed in Q1, Even Before the Full Hit From Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q1 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was under severe pressure at the start of the year. GDP fell by 1.6% quarter- on-quarter, the biggest drop since mid-2009, well below market expectations and following a 0.1% drop in Q4.

1 May 2020 Only a Modest Loosening of the Lockdown Looks Sustainable (Publication Centre)

Britain is indisputably beyond the peak of the first wave of Covid-19 infections, though the descent in new cases, hospitalisations and deaths has been shallower than the ascent.

11 Feb 2020 Mexico's Leading Indicators Point to a Modest Upturn, but Risks Abound (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest forward-looking indicators are showing tentative signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that growth slowed quicker than markets have been expecting.

11 June 2020 How to Read Next Week's Migraine- Inducing Labour Market Report (Publication Centre)

Many investors probably will be scratching their heads in the wake of next week's labour market report, which will reveal the Covid-19 hit to employment and wages in April, as well as showing how much further the claimant count soared in May.

12 Mar 2020 The ECB will Deliver, a Rate Cut, More QE and TLTROs are Coming (Publication Centre)

The Fed paved the way with a 50bp emergency rate cut on March 3, with more to come.

12 Mar 2020 Fiscal Policy Levers Pulled Aggressively, Limiting Recession Risk (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak's "temporary, timely and targeted" fiscal response to the Covid-19 outbreak, and the BoE's accompanying stimulus measures, won't prevent GDP from falling over the next couple of months.

12 May 2020 Andean Economies Stand Out for their Solid Response to Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

The Andean countries were quick to implement significant measures in response to the initial stage of the pandemic, adopting a broad range of economic and social policies to ease the effects.

12 May 2020 Brace for a GDP Drop of About 2.5% in Q1, Despite the Late Lockdown (Publication Centre)

The Q1 GDP figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that the quarter-on-quarter decline in economic activity eclipsed the biggest decline in the 2008-to-09 recession--2.1% in Q4 2008--even though the U.K. went into lockdown towards the very end of the quarter.

13 Feb 2020 A Double-Dip Recession on the Menu for Italy's in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The fact that Italy's economy is in poor shape will not surprise anyone following the euro area, but the advance Q4 GDP headline was astonishingly poor all the same.

12 Mar 2020 China's Money and Credit Data Show No Room for Complacency (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit data for February were reassuring, at least when compared with the doomsday scenario painted, so far, by other key indicators for last month.

12 Feb 2020 Powell Sticks to the Line, Current Policy is "Appropriate" (Publication Centre)

Chair Powell broke no new ground in his semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, repeating the Fed's new core view that the current stance of policy is "appropriate".

11 Mar 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector Started Q1 Strongly, but it won't Last (Publication Centre)

This has been a very complicated week for LatAm policymakers, who are particularly uneasy about the performance of the FX market.

11 Mar 2020 Chinese PPI Deflation is Back, But Should Disappear by Q4 (Publication Centre)

Collapsing oil prices add fresh deflationary pressure on China.

11 Mar 2020 Covid-19 has a Strong Grip on Italy, it will be Costly to Beat it (Publication Centre)

It's still unclear how exactly Covid-19 will impact the euro area as a whole, but little doubt now remains that Italy's economy is in for a rough ride.

12 Feb 2020 COPOM Closed the Door to Further Easing, Mexico's Industry Struggles (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's minutes of the February 4-to-5 COPOM meeting, at which Brazil's central bank, the BCB, cut the benchmark Selic rate by 25bp to 4.25%, reaffirmed the committee's post-meeting communiqué.

19 June 2020 Brazil's BCB is Determined to do Everything Possible to Boost Growth (Publication Centre)

Policymakers in Brazil and Chile took another big step this week in assuring markets that they won't hesitate to act in the fight against the virus.

14 Feb 2020 Japan's Q4 GDP Likely Plunged, Covid-19 Spells Recession (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP likely dropped by a huge 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, after the 0.5% increase in Q3, with risks skewed firmly to the downside.

23 June 2020 The Treasury has Cash on Hand to Cut VAT, but Should Focus Elsewhere (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak looks set to announce more fiscal stimulus next month to reinforce the economic recovery, despite recent record levels of public borrowing.

23 June 2020 Last Week's "Black Friday" in Colombia will Boost Covid Cases (Publication Centre)

Recent data in Colombia have confirmed that virus containment measures caused much bigger declines in activity in early Q2 than initially expected.

23 Mar 2020 Plunging External Trade, Halting Domestic Demand, LatAm in Disarray (Publication Centre)

Policymakers and governments are gradually deploying major fiscal and monetary policy measures to ease the hit from Covid-19 and the related financial crisis.

23 Mar 2020 We're Updating our Forecasts, Take them With a Pinch of Salt (Publication Centre)

Economists' forecasts are changing almost as quickly as market prices these days, and not for the better.

23 Mar 2020 Brace for an Unprecedented Slump in the Composite PMI (Publication Centre)

The drop in the flash composite PMI in March will be one for the record books, unfortunately. We look for an unprecedented drop to 43.0, from 53.3 in February, which would undershoot the 45.0 consensus and signal clearly that a deep recession is underway.

23 Apr 2020 India's Sudden Stop Plain to See in Trade, Longer Lockdown to Kill Q2 (Publication Centre)

India's trade data for March highlight the immediate severity of the country's sudden nationwide lockdown.

23 Apr 2020 EZ Consumption is Collapsing, but Fundamentals offer Hope (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data provided the first glimpse of the crash in EZ sentiment at the start of Q2, ahead of today's more substantial barrage of numbers, including French INSEE data, GfK confidence numbers in Germany and the advance PMIs.

22 July 2020 The Recovery in Existing Home Sales is Underway, More to Come (Publication Centre)

We remain very bullish on the housing market, given sustained 11-year highs in applications for new mortgages to finance house purchase.

22 Apr 2020 Contraction is Certain, but Look for Korea's Q1 GDP Report to Surprise (Publication Centre)

Tomorrow's Q1 GDP report for Korea has a wider spread of forecasts than usual, reflecting Covid-19's uneven hit to the economy.

22 June 2020 Bold Fiscal and Monetary Measures to Fight Chile's Pandemic (Publication Centre)

Economic activity in Chile in the first half of the year is now a write-off, due to Covid-19. The country is in a deep recession, and the impact of lockdowns on labour markets and businesses will cause long-lasting economic damage, which will hold back the recovery.

22 June 2020 Retail Sales will be a Poor Bellwether for Households' Overall Spending (Publication Centre)

We advise strongly against concluding from the above-consensus rebound in retail sales in May that the economy is embarking on a healthy, V-shaped recovery, from Covid-19.

22 May 2020 A Second Covid Wave would be Nothing Like as Bad as the First (Publication Centre)

We are hearing a great deal about the threat of a second wave of Covid-19 infections, caused either by the reopening of the economy, or the arrival of cooler weather in the fall, or both.

24 Apr 2020 Korea's Covid-19 Slump Will Evolve From Domestic- to Trade-Led in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Korean GDP contracted by 1.4% quarter-on- quarter in Q1, erasing the 1.3% jump at the end of last year. The pullback was sharper than we expected, with the cliff-edge drop in private consumption, in particular, catching us by surprise.

24 Feb 2020 Covid-19 Takes out Hope of Japan's Q1 Recovery, PMIs Show (Publication Centre)

Japan's January PMIs sent a clear signal that the virus impact is not to be underestimated. The manufacturing PMI fell to 47.6 in February, from 48.8 in January, contrasting sharply with the rising headlines of last week's batch of European PMIs.

25 Mar 2020 Surveys Confirm the Services Meltdown, Industry Better, for Now (Publication Centre)

The huge drop in the March Markit services PMI, reported yesterday, and the modest dip in the manufacturing index, are the first national business survey data to capture the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak.

25 Mar 2020 GDP Likely is Falling Much Faster than Even the Gloomy PMIs Imply (Publication Centre)

Even the record-breaking slump in Markit's composite PMI probably understates the hit to economic activity from Covid-19 and the emergency measures to slow its spread.

25 Mar 2020 The Covid Hit is Starting to Show in the Hard Data for Mexico and Brazil (Publication Centre)

LatAm governments and central banks have been busy implementing additional measures to contain the spread of the virus, and acting rapidly to ease the effect on the economy.

26 Feb 2020 Global Threats will Continue to Hurt the Mexican Economy this Year (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that Mexico's economy ended Q4 poorly, confounding the most hawkish Banxico Board members.

26 Feb 2020 The Fed's "Too Soon to Tell" Line Won't Hold if Markets Keep Falling (Publication Centre)

The spread of the Covid-19 virus remains the key issue for markets, which were deeply unhappy yesterday at reports of new cases in Austria, Spain and Switzerland, all of which appear to be connected to the cluster in northern Italy.

19 June 2020 Weekly Gilt Purchases to Halve, Following the MPC's Miserly Meeting (Publication Centre)

The BoE has lived up to its reputation again as one of the most unpredictable central banks.

25 Feb 2020 Inflation in Brazil and Mexico is Tame, but the Virus is a Real Threat (Publication Centre)

Brazil's inflation rate remained well under control over the first half of February.

24 Feb 2020 Virus-Induced Nerves will Persist until Non-China Cases Decline (Publication Centre)

While we were out last week, market nervousness over the Covid-19 outbreak intensified, though most key indicators of the spread of the infection continued to improve.

24 Feb 2020 PMIs Point to Above-Trend Growth, Despite Virus and Weather Headwinds (Publication Centre)

The flash readings of the Markit/CIPS surveys in February provide reassurance that GDP is on track to rebound in Q1, despite disruption to the global economy caused by the COVID-19 outbreak and bad weather in the U.K. this month.

24 June 2020 Don't Fixate on the PMI Remaining Below 50, GDP is Rebounding (Publication Centre)

Both business surveys and unconventional activity indicators suggest that the recovery from the Covid-19 shock has sped up in June, after a shaky start in May.

24 June 2020 More to Come from Banxico, but Fiscal Policy Remains Absent (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers likely will stick to the script tomorrow and vote by a majority to cut the main rate by 50bp to 5.00%, which would be its lowest level since late 2016.

25 Feb 2020 Don't Expect the BoK to Jump the Gun with Counter-Virus Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea is likely to keep its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.25%, at its meeting this week.

22 Apr 2020 Southern U.S. States Set to Try to Emulate Sweden, Will it Work? (Publication Centre)

The re-opening of businesses in Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee, starting this week and expanding next week, comes as the rate of increase of confirmed Covid-19 infections in these states remains much faster than in European countries where lockdowns have started to ease.

25 Feb 2020 The Fed will Blink if Markets have Many More Days Like Yesterday (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's stock market bloodbath stands in contrast to the U.S. economic data, most of which so far show no impact from the Covid-19 outbreak.

20 Apr 2020 The Lockdowns were the Easy Bit, Now Things get More Difficult (Publication Centre)

As painful as it is, the decision to lock down economies to curb the spread of Covid-19 was easy. The next step, however, is considerably more difficult.

20 Apr 2020 Re-opening Dangers Vary Across the U.S., but Nowhere is Risk-Free (Publication Centre)

We understand the desire of investors and individuals to see the economy re-opening as soon as possible, but the data right now support only a limited opening in some parts of the country and, hence, a limited late spring/summer rebound in the economy.

20 Feb 2020 Domestically-Generated Inflation Will Rise Further, Ruling Out a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate by June fell to 34%, from 38%, after the release of January's consumer price figures, though investors still see around an 80% chance of a cut by the end of this year.

20 Feb 2020 EZ Construction Output Hit a Wall in Q4, but Capex did a Bit Better (Publication Centre)

Production in the EZ construction sector slumped at the end of Q4. Data yesterday showed that output slid by 3.1% month-to-month in December, comfortably reversing the 0.7% increase in November.

20 Feb 2020 What China's Doing about the Labour Market & Bankruptcy Threat (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's State Council meeting implies that the authorities are starting to take more serious coordinated fiscal measures to counter the virus threat to the labour market and to banks.

20 Apr 2020 Andean Economies the Bright Spot in LatAm, Brazil and Mexico a Mess (Publication Centre)

The Andean economies have been clear examples of true leadership in the current global crisis. Leaders of these countries acted rapidly to contain the spread of the virus, jumping right over the phases of denial, anger and unscrupulousness we've seen in Brazil and Mexico.

2 Mar 2020 ECB easing is on the way, the only question is how much (Publication Centre)

We'll cover Friday's barrage of EZ economic data later in this Monitor, but first things first. We regret to inform readers that the ECB is behind the curve. Last week, Ms. Lagarde downplayed the idea that the central bank will respond to the shock from the Covid-19 outbreak.

19 May 2020 Chile's Q1 GDP Showed Decent Growth, but Q2 will be Trashed (Publication Centre)

The Chilean economy was emerging in early Q1 from the self-inflicted shock from the social unrest in October, but the upturn was interrupted in early- March by the restrictive measures introduced to contain Covid-19.

19 Mar 2020 What Else Can the Chancellor do to Reinforce the Eventual Recovery? (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak announced further emergency support measures for the economy on Tuesday and pledged to do more soon.

2 Mar 2020 Japan's Labour Data in Disarray, Early Signs of Virus Worries? (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour data threw another January curve ball this year--last year it was wages--with a change in the standards for job openings.

2 Mar 2020 Covid-19 Cases Accelerating Outside the Four Major Outbreaks (Publication Centre)

The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.

2 Mar 2020 Cyclical Improvement in Brazil's Unemployment, but Threats Rising (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the downward trend in Brazil's unemployment continued into this year. The unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 11.2% in January, slightly below the consensus, and down from 12.0% in January last year.

20 Mar 2020 Monetary and Fiscal Policy Measures to Fight the Economic Armageddon (Publication Centre)

Economic and financial conditions continue to deteriorate sharply in LatAm.

2 Apr 2020 How Long Before the Government Lifts the Lockdown? (Publication Centre)

The duration and future scope of the current lockdown is the main uncertainty that U.K economic forecasters have to grapple with at present.

20 Mar 2020 The ECB Gets in the Fight with a QE Program Worth More Than €1T (Publication Centre)

We have been on the ECB's case recently. The action taken at last week's official meeting--see here--fell short of market expectations, but more importantly, Ms. Lagarde's communication around the decisions was disastrous.

21 Feb 2020 Buckle Up, Today's Eurozone PMIs Will Move Markets, We Think (Publication Centre)

Today's advance EZ PMIs will be watched more closely than usual.

21 July 2020 The Housing Market Won't Defy Gravity for Long (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s property obsession has been immune to Covid-19, so far.

22 Apr 2020 Eurobonds Could be a Trap for Southern Europe, Balance is Key (Publication Centre)

European heads of states will convene tomorrow, virtually, in the Council to continue the debate on a joint and coordinated response to the Covid-19 epidemic. The meeting will progress along two tracks.

22 Apr 2020 Negative Oil Prices and Covid-19 are a Nightmare for LatAm (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers held an emergency meeting yesterday in the wake of DM easing, global fiscal stimulus, plunging oil prices, and the pandemic crisis, slashing interest rates to their lower level since early 2017.

21 Feb 2020 A Bad Weather Hit to February's Composite PMI (Publication Centre)

We expect the flash reading of Markit's composite PMI, released today, to print at 52.4 in February, below the consensus, 52.8, and January's final reading, 53.3, albeit still in line with last month's flash.

21 Feb 2020 China Credit Numbers are not Bad, but Pre-date Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Once again, Chinese January data released so far suggest that the Phase One trade deal was the dominant factor dictating activity for the first two- thirds of the month, with the virus becoming a real consideration only in the last third.

21 Apr 2020 Covid-19 is Only Just Starting to Impact Japan's Trade Data (Publication Centre)

Covid-19 has finally showed up in Japan's exports, which plunged 11.7% year-over-year in March, after falling a mere 1.0% in February.

20 May 2020 Wages to Fall Outright as Labour Market Slack Accumulates (Publication Centre)

We hope never to see another labour market report as bad as yesterday's, though the omens aren't good.

21 Apr 2020 Challenging Global Conditions Have Underscored Countries' Fragilities (Publication Centre)

In Friday's Monitor, we warned that Moody's would soon cut Mexico's credit rating; in a matter of hours, it was a done deal.

20 Mar 2020 Unprecedented QE Should Arrest the Surge in Gilt Yields (Publication Centre)

The MPC has wasted no time in seeking to counter this week's undesirable pick-up in gilt yields, which reflects investors dumping assets for cash.

CNBC - Economist: Georgia's coronavirus situation is comparable to Sweden's (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, joins "Squawk Box" to discuss what he thinks about Georgia's plan to reopen its economy and how the state's situation compares to some countries in Europe.

Financial Times - US stocks on track for gains as coronavirus cases set to peak (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest Covid-19 data from the U.S.

BBC News - Coronavirus: Eurozone economy shrinks at record rate (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the German Labour Market

BBC News - Coronavirus: UK economy 'set for deepest downturn in memory' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

LatAm Datanote: GDP, Fourth Quarter, Brazil (Publication Centre)

In one line: A decent end to 2019, but plunging capex and the coronavirus are threats.

LatAm Datanote: BCRP Rate Decision, Peru, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: On hold, but the coronavirus is a threat.

LatAm Datanote: Economic activity index, Chile, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The first signs of the coronavirus hit; more pain to come.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Confidence, Germany and France, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Solid, but the coronavirus is a threat for the rest of Q1.

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMIs, Eurozone, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Promising, but a coronavirus hit looms in the next few months.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Sentiment, Eurozone, February (Publication Centre)

In one line: Biggest m/m increase since mid-2017; no kidding! No coronavirus here.

4 May 2020 Data are Starting to Show the Shock of Covid-19, Q2 will be a Write-off (Publication Centre)

LatAm data in recent days have confirmed that efforts to contain the coronavirus, plunging global trade, and the collapse in oil prices, are dealing a severe economic and financial blow.

EZ Datanote: Advance IFO, Germany, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: The coronavirus finally arrives in the EZ macro data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 6 Feb 2020 (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus will put renewed pressure on Korea's current account surplus.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Jan 2020 (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs are not yet fully picking up the coronavirus; China's non-manufacturing PMI lifted by local government spending; not yet hit by the virus; Japan's job postings still suggest the unemployment rate is unsustainably low; Japan's national inflation has less far to fall than Tokyo's; The coronavirus will delay the return of Japanese retail sales to pre-tax hike levels; Investment goods drive Japan's IP rebound in December; no real support now for consumer goods production; December probably is as good as it will get for Korean industrial production, for now

16 Mar 2020 Markets Likely will Stabilise Soon,but The Economic Pain is Yet to Come (Publication Centre)

The latest developments on the coronavirus outbreak are not encouraging; for LatAm markets and economies.

US Datanote: U.S. Personal Income and Spending, January (Publication Centre)

In one line: Spending is better than it looks, but sustainability depends on the U.S. not suffering a major coronavirus outbreak.

*March 2020 - Latin America Chartbook* (Publication Centre)

The Coronavirus Is A New Economic Threat....Bad News For Latam's External-Driven Economies

1 Apr 2020 ADP Likely to Capture the Leading Edge of the Virus Hit to Jobs (Publication Centre)

Today's March ADP employment report likely will catch the leading edge of the wave of job losses triggered by the coronavirus.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q4 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Weak, and coronavirus now casts a shadow over the Q1/Q2 numbers.

3 Apr 2020 Unfortunately, Jobless Claims Could Easily Rise Again Next Week (Publication Centre)

Today's payroll number is completely irrelevant, because 97% of the 10.2M increase--so far--in initial jobless claims from their pre-coronavirus level came after the employment survey was conducted, between Sunday March 8 and Saturday March 14.

13 Apr 2020 Collapsing Confidence and Mass Job Losses Continue, but not Forever (Publication Centre)

While we were out--but not going anywhere--the data broadly were as awful as we expected, though the rate of growth of coronavirus infections in the U.S. and most other developed countries continued to slow.

16 Mar 2020 The House Bill is Nothing Like Enough, Much More is Coming (Publication Centre)

The House passage of a stimulus bill last Friday, seeking to ameliorate some of the damage done by the coronavirus outbreak, will not be nearly enough.

UK Datanote: U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, March (Publication Centre)

In one line: Probably understating the coronavirus hit.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, January (Publication Centre)

A decent start to the year, but the coronavirus hit to the economy is looming.

13 Mar 2020 Lift from Anti-Covid Jobs in Korea won't Last, the BoK will Cut in April (Publication Centre)

The effects of Covid-19--both negative and positive--on Korea's labour market certainly were felt in February.

9 Mar 2020 The Covid-19 Hit Likely will Allow LatAm Banks to Cut Rates Soon (Publication Centre)

The Fed's 50bp rate cut last week, aiming to shield the U.S. economy against Covid-19, has opened the door for some central banks in LatAm to emulate the move.

The Times - Japan slides towards recession after typhoon (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on Japan's economy

CNBC - Governments issued more debt than ever last month. How worried should we be? (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson discussing Global debt

Business Insider - US weekly jobless claims hit 3 million, bringing the 8-week total to more than 36 million (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Jobless Claims

Reuters - UK inflation hits four-year low on oil price fall, COVID impact (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K Inflation

CNBC - Total of those receiving unemployment benefits falls below 20 million (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Unemployment

Business Insider - US housing starts fell by the most on record in April (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Housing starts

Business Insider - US consumer confidence snaps 3-month growth streak as new COVID outbreaks stifle reopening optimism (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Consumer Confidence

Barron's - China's Latest Numbers Aren't as Good as They Look (Media Centre)

Chief Asia Economist Freya Beamish on China's PMI data

Business Insider - Sweden has nearly 10 times the number of COVID-19-related deaths than its Nordic neighbors. Here's where they went wrong. (Media Centre)

Charts released by Pantheon Macroeconomics show that Sweden's cases have yet to plateau, while Norway's case count appears to be on a downslide.

Financial Times - UK manufacturing down to lowest capacity utilisation rate on record (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Unemployment

CNBC - Jobless claims total 1.5 million, worse than expected as economic pain persists (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims

Financial Times - Wall Street set for gains as cautious optimism ripples through markets (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson with the latest Covid-19 data

Reuters - British economy on track for biggest contraction 'in living memory' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP

Politico - 'No words for this': 10 million workers file jobless claims in just two weeks (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the record-breaking number of U.S. Unemployment Claims this week

New York Times - UK Retailers Report Smaller Drop in Annual Sales in May (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K Retail Sales in May

Finncial Times - European investment plunge raises fears for future growth (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Consumer Spending

Guardian - Unemployment in US and UK 'may be worse than in Great Depression' (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on the latest data from the Eurozone

U.K. Key Issues (Publication Centre)

Eurozone Key Issues (Publication Centre)

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