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22 Oct 2019 Even if the PM Prevails Today, a No- Confidence Vote Could Force a Delay (Publication Centre)

Sterling briefly touched $1.30 yesterday, in response to signs that a very small majority in the Commons stands ready to vote for an unamended version of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB-- on Tuesday.

28 March 2017 Full-Scale Tax Reform Likely is Dead (Publication Centre)

The failure of House Republicans to support Speaker Ryan's healthcare bill has laid bare the splits within the Republican party. The fissures weren't hard to see even before last week's debacle but the equity market has appeared determined since November to believe that all the earnings-friendly elements of Mr. Trump's and Mr. Ryan's agendas would be implemented with the minimum of fuss.

24 Oct 2019 Which Fork in the Road Will the PM Take? (Publication Centre)

The PM now is at a fork in the road and will have to decide in the coming days whether to risk all and seek a general election, or restart the process of trying to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament.

26 February 2018 The Era of Abnormally Low U.S. Long Real Yields is Coming to an End (Publication Centre)

After many years in which the phrase "twin deficits" was never mentioned, suddenly it is the explanation of choice for the weakening of the dollar and the sudden increase in real Treasury yields since the turn of the year, shortly after the tax cut bill passed Congress.

4 December 2017 Hefty Tax Cuts at Full Employment Make no Sense, but they're Coming (Publication Centre)

It's not our job to pontificate on the merits, or otherwise, of the tax cut bill from a political perspective.

21 Oct 2019 No Lasting Relief for the Economy, if the New Brexit Deal Eventually Passes (Publication Centre)

The government now has a 50:50 chance of getting the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament in the coming weeks, despite Letwin's successful amendment and the extension request.

20 November 2017 Terrible Timing for Tax Cuts -- if they Pass, the Fed Will Hike More Quickly (Publication Centre)

The passage of the House tax cut bill does not guarantee that the Senate will follow suit with its own bill, still less that both chambers will then be able to agree on a single bill which can then b e signed into law. As

9 Oct 2019 The Fed will Buy Bills, but not Enough "Materially" to Shift its Policy Stance (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell did not specify how many bills the Fed will buy in order boost bank reserves sufficiently to remove the strain in funding markets, but we'd expect to see something of the order of $500B.

23 May 2017 Has the Outlook for Business Investment Brightened? (Publication Centre)

The recent deceleration in households' real spending means that either business investment or net exports will have to pickup if the economy is to avoid a severe slowdown this year.

22 November 2018 Next Year's Fiscal Stimulus Is Secure, Despite the Poorer Borrowing Data (Publication Centre)

October's surprise jump in public borrowing is not a material setback for the Chancellor, who will stick to his new Budget plans for modest fiscal stimulus next year.

25 Oct 2019 Mortgage Lending to Remain Stable, Despite the Brexit Headwinds (Publication Centre)

The mortgage market is continuing to hold up surprisingly well, given the calamitous political backdrop.

26 Sept 2019 The "Repo Crisis" is no Technicality Think Central Bank Divergence (Publication Centre)

After the disruption in repo markets last week, theories are flying as to what's going on.

26 October. 2016 Consumer Energy Price Rises Are in the Pipeline (Publication Centre)

Sharp falls in energy prices have been a boon for consumers, freeing up considerable funds for discretionary purchases. Domestic energy and motor fuel absorbed just 4.7% of consumers' spending in Q2, the lowest proportion for 12 years and well below the 6.7% recorded three years ago.

22 Nov 2019 No Respite in Sight for LatAm Currencies in the Near Term (Publication Centre)

Most LatAm currencies have been under pressure recently, with the Brazilian real and the Chilean peso breaking all-time lows versus the USD in recent weeks.

25 Nov 2019 Deferring the December 15 Tariffs is not Alone Enough to Lift Growth (Publication Centre)

The weaker is the economy over the next few months, the more likely it is that Mr. Trump blinks and removes some--perhaps even all--the tariffs on Chinese imports.

23 October 2018 Will Yields on Gilts Close the Gap with Treasuries? (Publication Centre)

The gap between U.K. and U.S. government bond yields has continued to grow this year and is approaching a record.

20 Feb 2020 What China's Doing about the Labour Market & Bankruptcy Threat (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's State Council meeting implies that the authorities are starting to take more serious coordinated fiscal measures to counter the virus threat to the labour market and to banks.

2 July 2018 Construction Activity is Accelerating, it's not Just Hurricane Repairs (Publication Centre)

Perhaps the single strongest U.S. economic data series in recent months has been construction spending, which has risen by more than 1%, month-to-month, in four of the past five months.

19 September 2018 How Would the MPC Respond to a No-deal Brexit? (Publication Centre)

A no-deal Brexit is a remote possibility. The U.K. government and EU are closing in on a deal and Brexiteers within the Conservative party have failed, so far, to trigger a confidence vote on Mrs. May's leadership.

19 Nov 2019 The Size of any Tory Majority Matters for Sterling's Medium-term Path (Publication Centre)

Investors have welcomed the flurry of encouraging opinion polls for the Conservatives that were published over the weekend, with cable rising nearly to $1.30 on Monday, a level last seen on a sustained basis six months ago.

2 November 2018 Copom on Hold for a While the BRL Allows some Room for Manoeuvre (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank kept the Selic policy rate at 6.50% this week, as markets broadly expected.

2 Sept 2019 Anti No-Deal MPs Likely will Prevail, Though the Timing is Tight this Week (Publication Centre)

We still think it is a question of when--not if-- MPs will be successful in taking a no -deal Brexit off the table.

21 February 2017 Fiscal Policy Won't Be Eased, Even If January's Surplus is Huge (Publication Centre)

January's public finance data, released today, take on particular importance because they are the last to be published before the Chancellor delivers his first Budget on March 8. The public finances nearly always swing into surplus in January, primarily because the deadline for individuals to submit self-assessment--SA--tax returns for the previous fiscal year is at the end of the month. Firms also pay their third of four payments of corporation tax for their profits in the current fiscal year.

27 Nov 2019 Housing Market Activity will Spring Back Early Next Year (Publication Centre)

Political uncertainty is starting to dampen housing market activity again.

20 December 2017 Brazil's Fiscal Outlook is Blurred, But Argentina's Has Just Improved (Publication Centre)

Politics will be the key factor in LatAm over the coming quarters, as presidential and legislative elections take place throughout the region.

21 Nov 2019 Japan's Two-way Trade will Remain in the Doldrums Well Into 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japanese trade remained in the doldrums in October, keeping policymakers on their toes as they repeat the refrain of "resilient" domestic demand.

29 Nov 2019 The Recovery in Sentiment Will Be Fleeting, if the Tories' Majority is Small (Publication Centre)

The emergence last month of a new E.U. Withdrawal Agreement that has a strong chance of being ratified by MPs appears to have given a small boost to business confidence.

6 December 2018 November's Services PMI Bolsters our Below-Consensus Q4 GDP Call (Publication Centre)

The slump in the Markit/CIPS services PMI in November to its lowest level since July 2016 provides the clearest indication yet that uncertainty about Brexit has driven the economy virtually to a stand-still.

5 October 2018 BoJ Flexibility was Partly Designed to Accommodate the Fed Path (Publication Centre)

When the BoJ tweaked policy back in July, we think the increase in flexibility in part was to lay groundwork for the BoJ to respond to the Fed's ongoing hiking cycle.

5 Nov 2019 How Much Further Can Support for the Two Main Parties Rally? (Publication Centre)

Support in opinion polls for both the Conservatives and Labour has been increasing steadily.

7 November 2018 China's Q3 BoP Data Confirm Trade War-Related Capital Flight (Publication Centre)

China's unadjusted current account surplus widened to $16.0B in the preliminary report for Q3, from $5.3B in Q2.

8 Jan 2020 Improving External Conditions Add to Colombia's Economic Resilience (Publication Centre)

Colombia was the fastest growing LatAm economy in 2019, due mostly to strong domestic demand, offsetting a sharp fall in key exports.

9 September. 2016 iPhone Price Hike Underlines Incoming In ation Shock (Publication Centre)

The consequences of sterling's sharp depreciation for inflation were brought home yesterday by the news that the iPhone 7 will cost more than its predecessor. The entry-level version is priced at £60 more than its iPhone 6S equivalent. Of course, the new version is more advanced, but the fact that the dollar price held steady, at $649, demonstrates the U.K. price hike entirely is due to the adverse impact of the weaker pound.

9 Dec 2019 Inflation is Ending the Year at a Comfortable Rate, but Threats Loom (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday showed that November inflation was in line with, or below, expectations in Brazil, Colombia and Chile.

8 July 2019 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue? (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirmed that Mexico's economy stumbled in the first half of the year, hurt by a temporary shocks in both the industrial and services sectors, and heightened political uncertainty, due to policy mistakes at the outset of AMLO's presidency.

5 Feb 2020 A Poor Finish to 2019 for Brazil's Industry, COPOM to Cut Rates (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed that the recovery was stuttering at the end of last year.

4 December 2017 Britain Will be Forever Stuck in the Brexit Departure Lounge (Publication Centre)

Sterling strengthened last week to its highest tradeweighted level since mid-May, amid hopes that the U.K. government will concede more ground to ensure that the European Council deems, at its December 14 meeting, that "sufficient progress" has been made in Brexit talks for trade discussions to begin

19 March 2019 Don't get Used to a Japanese Trade Surplus Just Yet (Publication Centre)

Japan's adjusted trade balance flipped back to a modest surplus of ¥116B in February, after seven straight months of deficit.

29 Jan 2020 Fed on Hold, Awaiting Macro or Virus Developments, IOER to Rise (Publication Centre)

The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.

28 Oct 2019 The PM Can Get His Election Soon, But He Must Pay a Higher Price (Publication Centre)

MPs will be asked today to approve the PM's motion, proposed in accordance with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act--FTPA--to hold a general election on December 12.

3 Dec 2019 Can Labour Continue to Reduce the Tories' Poll Lead? (Publication Centre)

The political momentum in the run-up to the election now lies with Labour.

30 Jan 2020 Fed Policy Still "Appropriate", FOMC Watching Virus Story "Very Carefully" (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's FOMC , announcing a unanimous vote for no change in the funds rate, is almost identical to December's.

30 Oct 2019 Don't Put All Your Election Chips on Blue (Publication Centre)

Britain looks set for a general election during the week commencing December 9, now that all main parties are pushing for a pre-Christmas poll.

30 Oct 2019 Copom to Cut Further, Politics Allows some Room for Manoeuvre (Publication Centre)

The news in Brazil on inflation and politics has been relatively positive in recent weeks, allowing policymakers to keep cutting interest rates to boost the stuttering recovery.

28 January 2019 PBoC CBSs: Not Quite QE, but Potentially a Useful Step (Publication Centre)

Last week the Chinese authorities issued a series of new measures to help with bank recapitalisation, and, we think, to supplement interbank liquidity.

17 November 2017 Manufacturing Output Rebounds, but no Boom Coming (Publication Centre)

The spectacular 1.3% rebound in manufacturing output last month -- the biggest jump in seven years, apart from an Easter-distorted April gain -- does not change our core view that activity in the sector is no longer accelerating.

11 Oct 2019 Core Inflation is Still Rising, Despite September's Soft Data (Publication Centre)

The undershoot in the September core CPI does not change our view that the trend in core inflation is rising, and is likely to surprise substantially to the upside over the next six-to-12 months.

11 September 2017 Inflation in Mexico Looks Scary but Soon will Start to Fall Rapidly (Publication Centre)

Mexico's inflation nudged up to a fresh 16-year high in August, but the details of the report confirmed that underlying pressures are easing, in line with our core view.

12 June 2018 Inflation Likely Held Steady in May, but a Brief Pick-up Lies Ahead (Publication Centre)

May's consumer price figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that CPI inflation held steady at 2.4%--matching the consensus and the MPC's forecast--though the risks lie to the upside.

13 December 2017 Mexico's Manufacturing Starts Q4 Badly, but it Will Gradually Improve (Publication Centre)

Mexican industrial activity started the fourth quarter badly. Industrial production fell 0.1% month- to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate slightly up to -1.1% from -1.2% in September and -0.7% in Q3.

11 December 2017 Chile's Second Round is Shaping Up to be a Nail-Biter, Piñera to Win (Publication Centre)

On December 17, voters will go to the polls for the second time in less than a month to choose Chile's next president.

10 Sept 2019 July's GDP Rebound Rules Out Pre-Brexit Easing from the MPC (Publication Centre)

The pick-up in GDP in July is a re assuring sign that the economy is on course to grow at a solid rate in Q3, thereby substantially weakening the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate before Britain's Brexit path is known.

1 March 2019 Q4 Growth Rescued by Business Spending on IP, but Q1 Set to Soften (Publication Centre)

A quick rebound in growth, after the slowdown to a reported 2.6% in the fourth quarter, is unlikely.

1 Nov 2019 New Forecasts to Show Government on Course to Break its Fiscal Rule (Publication Centre)

The Office for Budget Responsibility has decided to press ahead with the publication of new fiscal forecasts on November 7, despite the government's decision to postpone the Budget until after the next election.

10 April 2017 Inflation's Rise Likely Arrested in March by this Year's Later Easter (Publication Centre)

March's consumer price figures, released tomorrow, look set to show that inflation's ascent was kept in check by the later Easter this year compared to last. Nonetheless, CPI inflation will take big upward strides over the coming months, and it likely will exceed 3% by the summer.

13 Jan 2020 Labor Market Strength Means no Need for the Fed to Ease this Year (Publication Centre)

Here's the bottom line: U.S. businesses appear to have over-reacted to the impact of the trade war in their responses to most surveys, pointing to a serious downturn in economic growth which has not materialized.

13 Jan 2020 Your Monthly Reminder that the French Economy is Doing Fine (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing data delivered another upside surprise last week, following the solid numbers in Germany; see here. French industrial production rose slightly in November, by 0.3% month-to-month, extending the gains from an upwardly-revised 0.5% rise in October.

15 October 2018 The Stock Market Wobble isn't Enough to Deter the Fed (Publication Centre)

A 45bp rise in long-term interest rates--the increase between mid-August and last week's peak--ought to depress stock prices, other things equal.

17 January 2019 How Many Government Workers are Making Unemployment Claims (Publication Centre)

The weekly jobless claims numbers tend to be choppy around the turn of the year, and our take on the seasonal adjustments points to a clear increase in today's report, for the week ended January 11, even without the impact of the government shutdown.

18 Jan. 2016 Falling Energy Prices Won't Prevent Inflation Rising (Publication Centre)

December's consumer prices figures, released tomorrow, look set to show CPI inflation ticked up to 0.2% from 0.1% in November, despite the renewed collapse in oil prices. The further fall in energy prices this year means that the inflation print won't reach 1% until May's figures are published in June. But Governor Carney has emphasised that core price pressures will motivate the first rate hike--a focus he likely will reiterate in a speech on Tuesday-- meaning that a May lift-off is still on the table.

19 December 2016 Yellen Backs Away from the "High- Pressure" Economy (Publication Centre)

Judging by conversations we have had with investors since October, the idea that the Fed will be willing to let inflation overshoot the 2% target for a time has become received wisdom in the markets.

15 Oct 2019 The China Trade Nothingburger won't Turn the Economy Around (Publication Centre)

The New York Times called the China trade agreement reached Friday "half a deal", but that's absurdly generous.

13 Sept 2019 Brazil's Retail Sector Started Q3 Solidly will the Uptrend Continue (Publication Centre)

Brazil's outlook is still improving at the margin, as positive economic signals mix with relatively encouraging political news.

14 Oct 2019: A Brexit Deal with a NI-Only Backstop won't get Through this HoC (Publication Centre)

Sterling leapt to $1.27, from $1.22 last week, amid some positive signals from all sides engaged in Brexit talks.

15 Feb. 2016 Stronger CPI Figures to Dispel Fears of Ingrained Deflation (Publication Centre)

January's consumer price data, released tomorrow, look set to reveal a third consecutive rise in CPI inflation, dampening speculation that the U.K. is stuck in a deflationary funk. Indeed, we think CPI inflation picked up to 0.4%, from 0.2% in December, above the consensus, 0.3%.

16 March 2018 Kuroda Prepares Parliament to Foot the BoJ's Exit Bill (Publication Centre)

Governor Kuroda dropped further hints in speeches earlier this week that interest rates will be going up. He discussed methods of exit, in loose terms.

20 June 2018 Today's Brexit Bill Vote is a Close Call, but Bigger Decisions Lie Ahead (Publication Centre)

The vote in the House of Commons today on whether MPs should effectively take control of Brexit negotiations, if Theresa May can't strike a deal by mid-January, looks finely balanced.

23 Oct 2019 Take the PM's Threat of a General Election Seriously (Publication Centre)

As we write, the Commons appears to be on the verge of voting for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--at its second reading but then voting against the government's "Programme Motion", which sets out a very tight timetable for its passage through parliament, in a bid to meet the October 31 deadline and to minimise parliamentary scrutiny.

25 August 2017 Yellen to Talk on Financial Stability, But Might Refer to Policy too (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole today, at 10:00 Eastern. Her topic is billed as "financial stability", but that does not necessarily preclude remarks on the outlook for the economy and policy.

25 March 2019 The Fundamentals are at Odds with the Curve, no Recession Near (Publication Centre)

The commentariat was very excited Friday by the inversion of the curve, with three-year yields dipping to 2.24% while three-month bills yield 2.45%.

23 June 2017 Brazil and Argentina Under Renewed But Temporary Pressure (Publication Centre)

Financial markets in Brazil and Argentina have been under pressure this week, following negative news, both domestic and external. In Brazil, the Ibovespa index tumbled nearly 1.8% on Tuesday after a Senate Committee rejected the Government's labour reform bill.

22 January 2019 Q1 GDP will Take a Hit, Despite Back Pay for Government Workers (Publication Centre)

The chance of a zero GDP print for the first quarter diminished--but did not die--last week when the president signed a bill granting full back pay to about 300K government workers currently furloughed.

BUSINESS INSIDER - US trade deficit balloons (Media Centre)

The US trade deficit unexpectedly widened by 17% to $46.6 billion in December from $39.8 billion in November.

20 July 2017 Do we Need to be Afraid of Chinese Ghost Cities? (Publication Centre)

Stories of Chinese ghost cities are plentiful and alarming. The aggregate data present a startling picture. Between 2012 and 2015, China started around six billion square meters of residential floorspace but sold only around five billion.

13 March 2018 Piñera Takes Office in Chile Will he be Able to Deliver on his Promises? (Publication Centre)

The second presidency of Chile's conservative Sebastián Piñera, a billionaire turned politician, began on Sunday, March 11, in favourable economic circumstances.

26 Oct. 2015 What Has to Happen for the Fed to Hike in December? (Publication Centre)

A rate hike from the Fed this week would be a gigantic surprise, and Yellen Fed has not, so far, been in the surprise business. It would be more accurate to describe the Fed's modus operandi as one of extreme caution, and raising rates when the fed funds future puts the odds of action at close to zero just does not fit the bill.

28 May 2019 Count on Consumers to Drag the Economy Through the Brexit Mess (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister's resignation and the stillborn launch of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill last week has forced us to revise our Brexit base case, from a soft E.U. departure on October 31 to continued paralysis.

9 Nov. 2015 Fed Set to Hike in December, and then Faster than Markets Expect (Publication Centre)

At a stroke, the October payroll report returned the short-term trend in payroll growth to the range in place since 2011, pushed the unemployment rate into the lower part of the Fed's Nairu range, and lifted the year-over-year rate of growth of hourly earnings to a six-year high. The FOMC has never quantitatively defined what it means by "some further improvement in the labor market", its condition for increasing rates, but if the October report does not qualify, it's hard to know what might fit the bill. We expect a 25bp increase in December.

9 November 2018 The Fed is Still on Course to Hike in December no Mention of Stocks (Publication Centre)

Convention dictates that we lead with yesterday's Fed meeting, but it's hard to argue that it really deserves top billing.

5 Nov. 2015 Yellen Signals December Action, Data Permitting (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen yesterday reinforced the impression that the bar to Fed action in December, in terms of the next couple of employment reports, is now quite low: "If we were to move, say in December, it would be based on an expectation, which I believe is justified, [our italics] that with an improving labor market and transitory factors fading, that inflation will move up to 2%." The economy is now "performing well... Domestic spending has been growing at a solid pace" making a December hike a "live possibility." New York Fed president Bill Dudley, speaking later, said he "fully" agrees with Dr. Yellen's position, but "let's see what the data show."

7 Dec. 2015 After the First Hike, Next Week, Wage Gains Will Set the Pace (Publication Centre)

We're guessing Fed Chair Yellen would have preferred to have another acceleration in hourly earnings and a dip in the unemployment rate along side the hefty 211K leap in November payrolls, but no matter. At its October meeting, the Fed wanted to see "some further improvement in the labor market", and by any reasonable standard a 509K total increase in payrolls in two months fits the bill.

4 April 2017 The Spanish and U.K. Navies won't Have to Fight over Gibraltar (Publication Centre)

The EU's negotiations with the U.K. over Brexit are off to a bad start. The position in Brussels is that negotiations on a new relationship can't begin before the bill on the U.K.'s existing membership is settled. But this has been met with resistance by Westminster; the U.K. does not recognise the condition of an upfront payment to leave.

29 March 2017 Triggering Article 50 Won't End the "Phoney War" Immediately (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister will invoke Article 50 today, marking the end of the beginning of the U.K.'s departure from the EU. The move likely will not move markets, as it has been all but certain since MPs backed the Government's European Union Bill on February 1.

31 May 2019 Q&A on the Government Takeover of Baoshang Bank (Publication Centre)

Was this an isolated occurrence, connected to the graft investigation into Chinese billionaire Xiao Jianhua, and his financial conglomerate?

Bloomberg - Monte Paschi Proceeds With Capital Plan (Media Centre)

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA will step up efforts to win investors for an expanded debt-to-equity swap over the coming days, pressing ahead with a 5 billion-euro ($5.3- billion) capital increase as its options to avoid a state rescue dwindle. Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Euro Zone Economist Claus Vistesen weighs in on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas."

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