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20 March 2017 If Fundamental Tax Reform Fails, What Happens to Fiscal Policy? (Publication Centre)

The White House Budget for fiscal 2018, released last week, has no chance of becoming law in anything like its current form, so we don't propose to spend much time dissecting it. But we do need to set out our view on what might actually happen to fiscal policy over the next few months, because it potentially could make a material difference to the pace, and ultimate extent, of Fed tightening.

28 February 2017 What Will the President say About Taxes and Spending? (Publication Centre)

It seems pretty clear from press reports that the White House budget, which reportedly will be released March 14, will propose substantial increases in defense spending, deep cuts to discretionary non- defense spending, and no substantive changes to entitlement programs. None of this will come as a surprise.

30 May 2017 How Durable is the Euro's Rally Against the Dollar? (Publication Centre)

Fiscal stimulus, partly financed by a border adjustment tax, and Fed rate hikes, were supposed to be a powerful cocktail driving a stronger dollar in 2017. But so far only the Fed has delivered--we expect another rate hike next month--while Mr. Trump has disappointed in the White House.

23 February 2017 Fiscal Easing Could Boost Growth Substantially, but not for Long (Publication Centre)

The White House budget proposals, which Roll Call says will be released in limited form on March 14, will include forecasts of sustained real GDP growth in a 3-to-3.5% range, according to an array of recent press reports.

30 September. 2016 Trump Fears Prompts a Rate Hike in Mexico, the MXN Rallies, for Now (Publication Centre)

Mexico's central bank, Banxico, last night capitulated again to the depreciation of the MXN and increased interest rates by 50bp, for the third time this year. This week's rebound in the currency was not enough to prevent action.

5 March 2018 U.S. Steel and Aluminium Tariffs Will Have Little Direct Effect on LatAm (Publication Centre)

Global economic conditions have been improving for LatAm over recent quarters.

8 August 2018 Red Hot Japanese Wage Growth will Help the BoJ Unwind (Publication Centre)

We hadn't expected the scorching 3.6% year-over- year growth rate in Japan's June average wages

3 June 2019 The Trade War Deepens, Mexico's Economy is Under Heavy Fire (Publication Centre)

President Trump's volatile diplomatic style is one of the biggest risks facing the Mexican economy in the near term, as we have discussed in previous Monitors.

26 Aug 2019 Powell's Speech no Match for the Blizzard of Trump Tweets (Publication Centre)

After three days of jaw-dropping actions from President Trump, the position seems to be this: The U.S. will apply 15% tariffs on imported Chinese consumer goods, rather than the previously promised 10%, effective in two stages on September 1 and December 15.

10 May 2019 See No Evil, Hear No Evil in Today's U.S. China Trade Talks (Publication Centre)

As we head to press, investors are holding their breath over whether today's trade talks between the U.S. and China will be enough for Mr. Trump to step back from his pledge to increase tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods to 25%.

29 August 2018 Mexico's Prospects to Improve Following the New NAFTA Pact (Publication Centre)

Mexico's risk profile and financial metrics have improved in recent days, following news of a preliminary bilateral trade deal with the U.S. on Monday.

10 Oct 2019 Putting our Money Where Our Mouth is Can the EZ Outperform (Publication Centre)

Gloom and uncertainty are spreading across the global economy as we head into the final stretch of the year.

28 March 2017 Full-Scale Tax Reform Likely is Dead (Publication Centre)

The failure of House Republicans to support Speaker Ryan's healthcare bill has laid bare the splits within the Republican party. The fissures weren't hard to see even before last week's debacle but the equity market has appeared determined since November to believe that all the earnings-friendly elements of Mr. Trump's and Mr. Ryan's agendas would be implemented with the minimum of fuss.

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