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20 matches for " weekly jobless claims":
In one line: Little sign of the feared trade hit on Q2 GDP growth, so far.
In one line: The jump in capex orders is welcome but impossible to square with surveys; expect a correction.
In one line: Philly Fed details weaker than the headline, but still strong; Claims *might* be turning up.
In one line: Philly details much less spectacular than the headline; jobless claims back to lows.
In one line: Looks bad, but the trend is not--yet--running at 0.3% per month.
In one line: No signs of manufacturing rebound here.
In one line: Solid, but it won't last.
In one line: Trade deficit has stabilized, provided the China talks don't fall apart.
The weekly jobless claims numbers are due Thursday, as usual, but in the wake of a flood of emails from readers, all asking a variant of the same question-- should we be worried about the rise in continuing jobless claims?--we want to address the issue now.
Back-to-back elevated weekly jobless claims numbers prove nothing, but they have grabbed our attention.
Core durable goods orders have not weakened as much as implied by the ISM manufacturing survey, as our first chart shows, but it is risky to assume this situation persists.
One bad month proves nothing, but our first chart shows that October's auto sales numbers were awful, dropping unexpectedly to a six-month low.
The reported drop in mortgage applications over the holidays is now reversing, not that it ever mattered.
The next couple of rounds of business surveys will capture firms' responses to the Phase One trade deal agreed last week, though the news came too late to make much, if any, difference to the December Philly Fed report, which will be released today.
The medium-term trend in the volume of mortgage applications turned up in early 2015, but progress has not been smooth. The trend in the MBA's purchase applications index has risen by about 40% from its late 2014 low, but the increase has been characterized by short bursts of rapid gains followed by periods of stability.
It's pretty easy to dismiss back-to-back 0.3% increases in the core CPI, especially when they follow a run of much smaller gains.
Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims, a sign of the pace of layoffs, dropped to a seasonally-adjusted 265,000 in the week ending Jan 24, a hefty decline of 43,000 from the prior week's slightly upwardly revised level of 308,000
The question of what's really happening to the pace of layoffs is still unanswered, despite the apparent upturn over the past couple of months. The weekly jobless claims numbers are only just emerging from the fog of the usual holiday season chaos. The pattern of pre-holiday hiring and post-holiday layoffs is broadly the same each year, but Christmas and New Year's Day fall on a different day each year, making seasonal adjustment difficult.
The weekly jobless claims numbers tend to be choppy around the turn of the year, and our take on the seasonal adjustments points to a clear increase in today's report, for the week ended January 11, even without the impact of the government shutdown.
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