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20 October. 2016 Rising Prices Will Arrest the Strong Trend in Retail Sales Next Year (Publication Centre)

It's hard to have much conviction in any forecast for September retail sales, as the relationship between the official data and the surveys has weakened considerably.

20 July 2017 Retail Sales Likely Jumped in June, but the Trend Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

Surveys suggest that today's retail sales figures will show that sales volumes increased by around 1% month-to-month in June, significantly exceeding the consensus, 0.4%. But the pickup in June likely will be just a blip; the further intensification of the squeeze on real wages and a tightening of unsecured lending standards will keep retail sales on a flat path in the second half of 2017.

22 March 2018 Wage Growth Still Lacks Momentum, Giving the MPC Time (Publication Centre)

Slack in the labour market no longer is being absorbed and wage growth still is struggling for momentum, placing little pressure on the MPC to rush the next rate rise.

22 May 2018 Retail Sales Likely Recovered in April, but the Trend Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

April's retail sales figures, due Thursday, likely will show that spending recovered from snow-induced weakness in March.

9 April 2018 Q1 GDP Shaping up to be Weak, Leaving a May Rate Rise in Doubt (Publication Centre)

Most investors remain convinced that the MPC will raise Bank Rate when it meets next, on May 10.

19 January 2018 December Retail Sales Likely Reversed Most of November's Gain (Publication Centre)

December's retail sales figures, released today, likely will show that the surge in spending in November was driven merely by people undertaking Christmas shopping earlier than in past years, due to Black Friday.

17 February 2017 Retail Sales Likely got off to a Soft Start This Year (Publication Centre)

Today's official retail sales figures look set to show that consumers tightened their purse strings at the start of this year, following last year's spending spree. We think that retail sales volumes rose by just 1.0% month-to-month in January; that would be a poor result after December's 1.9% plunge. Surveys of retailers have been weak across the board. The reported sales balance of the CBI's Distributive Trade Survey collapsed to -8 in January, from +35 in December. The balance is notoriously volatile, but the 43-point drop is the largest since the survey began in 1983.

11 October 2017 Weak GDP Growth in Q3 Suggests a November Hike isn't a Done Deal (Publication Centre)

The Office for National Statistics yesterday released the last major batch of output data before the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP is published on October 25, just one week before the MPC's key meeting.

15 September 2016 August Retail Sales to Shatter Picture of Consumer Resilience (Publication Centre)

Today's retail sales figures for August likely will rebut the widespread view that spendthrift consumers will prevent a sharp economic slowdown. We look for a 1% month-to-month decline in retail sales volumes in August, well below the -0.4% consensus forecast.

17 April 2018 The March Drop in Retail Sales will Overshadow Slowly Reviving Wages (Publication Centre)

This week's labour market, inflation and retail sales data--the last before the MPC meets on May 10--will have a major bearing on the Committee's decision.

25 May. The Chancellor is Still Headed for a Mid-Parliament Fiscal Crunch (Publication Centre)

April's public finances show that borrowing still is falling more slowly than the Chancellor had envisaged. This casts further doubt over whether he will be able to keep his pledge to run a budget surplus before the end of this parliament in 2020.

3 February 2017 The U.S. Puts Germany's Huge Trade Surplus Under the Spotlight (Publication Centre)

In our Monitor on January 27 we speculated that the new U.S. administration would see Germany's booming trade surplus as a bone of contention. We were right. Earlier this week, Peter Navarro, the head of Mr. Trump's new National Trade Council, fired a broadside against Germany, accusing Berlin for using the weak euro to gain an unfair trade advantage visa-vis the U.S.

22 August 2018 Venezuela's Economic Crisis Will Deteriorate Despite Recent Plan (Publication Centre)

To imagine an unstoppable macroeconomic policy disaster and desperate improvisation, just think of Venezuela.

Consistently Right

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