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36 matches for " treasuries":

29 June. 2015 Greece to Dominate Markets - Dollar, Treasuries to Benefit (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone is on the brink of its first exit this week after the ECB refused to offer incremental emergency liquidity to Greek banks, forcing the start of bank holiday through July 7--two days after next weekend's referendum--and beginning today. We have no doubt that if the banks were to open, they would soon be bust; bank runs have a habit of accelerating beyond the point of no return very quickly.

20 June 2017 As the Balance Sheet Shrinks, how can we Assess the Fed's Stance? (Publication Centre)

The initial pace of the Fed's balance sheet run-off, which we expect to start in October, will be very low. At first, the balance sheet will shrink by only $10B per month, split between $6B Treasuries and $4B mortgages.

2 October 2017 Four Reasons Why the Treasury Selloff Might be the Real Thing (Publication Centre)

The recent sell-off in Treasuries has not yet reached significant proportions.

12 January 2018 China's SAFE Could end up Diversifying Away from USD After all (Publication Centre)

China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange-- SAFE--yesterday refuted claims, made earlier in the week, that senior government officials had recommended slowing or halting purchases of U.S. Treasuries.

23 Jan. 2015 Can Treasuries Focus on the U.S. Economy as Euro Risk Recedes? (Publication Centre)

The ECB's decision to go all-in and buy sovereign debt has three key consequences for U.S. markets. First, Treasuries will no longer benefit from safe-haven flows, because shorting Eurozone government debt has just become a fantastically risky proposition.

20 March 2019 Losing One Dot is a Good Bet Two Would Box-in the Fed Unnecessarily (Publication Centre)

We expect the Fed today to shift its dotplot to forecast one rate hike this year, down from two in December and three in September.

20 June 2019 All Eyes on Osaka, if the Trade Talks Succeed, the Fed Won't Ease in July (Publication Centre)

The tone of Fed Chair Powell's opening comments at the press conference yesterday was much more dovish than the statement, which did little more than most analysts expected.

20 Sept 2019 EZ Portfolio Outflows will get a New Lease of Life from the ECB (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus rebounded slightly at the start of Q3.

20 April 2018 The EZ current account surplus is rising (Publication Centre)

The EZ's current account surplus is solid as ever, despite falling slightly in February to €35.1B, from an upwardly-revised €39.0B in January.

19 June 2019 The Fed Will Commit to Ease if "Appropriate" it isn't, Yet (Publication Centre)

The Fed will leave rates unchanged today.

20 September 2017 Expect a December Hike (Publication Centre)

The FOMC won't raise rates today, but we expect that the announcement of the start of balance sheet reduction will not be interrupted by Harvey and Irma.

20 February 2019 The EZ's Current Account Surplus Should Increase, a Bit, in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external accounts were extremely volatile at the end of Q4.

26 February 2018 The Era of Abnormally Low U.S. Long Real Yields is Coming to an End (Publication Centre)

After many years in which the phrase "twin deficits" was never mentioned, suddenly it is the explanation of choice for the weakening of the dollar and the sudden increase in real Treasury yields since the turn of the year, shortly after the tax cut bill passed Congress.

8 May 2018 China's Diminished Current Account Surplus is Hugely Significant (Publication Centre)

China's current account dropped sharply in Q1, to a deficit of $28.2B, from a surplus of $62.3B in Q4.

9 April 2018 Will China use the RMB Nuclear Option as Tariff Pain Rises? (Publication Centre)

China has a nuclear option in the face of pressure from U.S. tariffs, namely, to devalue the currency.

6 February 2018 China's Services PMI Overstates Growth in Q1 February to Correct (Publication Centre)

The jump in the Caixin services PMI in the past two months looks erratic, with holiday effects playing a role, though there could be more going on here.

3 June. Brexit Would Hit All Sterling Asset Values, Gilts Included (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the outperformance of gilts compared to government bonds in other developed countries this year suggests that Brexit would be a boon for the gilt market. In the event of an exit, however, we think that the detrimental impact of higher gilt issuance, rising risk premia and weaker overseas demand would overwhelm the beneficial influence of stronger domestic demand for safe-haven assets, pushing gilt yields higher.

25 May 2017 Balance Sheet Run-off set to Start in the Fall, but Slowly (Publication Centre)

The FOMC minutes confirmed that most FOMC members were not swayed by the weak-looking first quarter GDP numbers or the soft March core CPI. Both are considered likely to prove "transitory", and the underlying economic outlook is little changed from March.

19 Aug 2019 Sometimes, the Obviously Optimal Things don't Happen (Publication Centre)

A big picture approach to the China trade war, from the perspective of Mr. Trump, is reasonably positive. The president very clearly wants to be re-elected, and he knows that his chances are better if the economy and the stock market are in good shape.

23 May 2019 Patience to Persist FOMC Members Content to Wait for Developments (Publication Centre)

It's hard to read the minutes of the April 30/May 1 FOMC meeting as anything other than a statement of the Fed's intent to do nothing for some time yet.

14 Aug 2019 Trump Blinks Again, but Some Consumer Goods will be Tariffed (Publication Centre)

President Trump blinked again yesterday, delaying tariffs on some $150B-worth of Chinese consumer goods until December 15.

12 February 2018 The Next Round of Data Likely Will Dampen Inflation Fears, For a Time (Publication Centre)

It's hard to know what will stop the correction in the stock market, but we're pretty sure that robust economic data--growth, prices and/or wages--over the next few weeks would make things worse.

18 Mar. 2016 Are Markets and the ECB Behind the Curve on Inflation Risks? (Publication Centre)

Barring a disaster, the four-year cyclical upturn in the euro area will continue in the coming quarters. Inflation is a lagging indicator and therefore should rise, and investors should be adjusting their mindset to higher interest rates. But the reality today looks very different. Final inflation data confirmed that the Eurozone inflation slipped to -0.2% year-over-year in February, from 0.2% in January.

10 May 2017 The Budget Deficit is Rising, even Before any Unfunded Tax Cuts (Publication Centre)

The CBO reckons that the April budget surplus jumped to about $179B, some $72B more than in the same month last year. This looks great, but alas all the apparent improvement reflects calendar distortions on the spending side of the accounts.

10 December 2018 Not a Great Moment for a Rise in China's FX Reserves (Publication Centre)

China's FX reserves rose to $3,062B in November, from $3,053B on October. On the face of it, the increase is surprising.

12 January 2018 Gilt Yields Will Climb this Year, Despite the Weak Economy (Publication Centre)

Investors likely will be caught out by the extent to which gilt yields rise this year. Forward rates imply that the 10-year spot rate will rise by a mere 20bp to just 1.45% by the end of 2018. By contrast, we see scope for 10-year yields to climb to 1.60% by the end of this year.

11 February 2019 Is the Accelerating Fall in Bank Reserves a Real Problem for the Fed? (Publication Centre)

The rundown of the Fed's balance sheet has proceeded in line with the plans laid out b ack in June 2017.

15 June 2017 Yellen to Markets: Core Inflation is Noisy, the Labor Market is the Key (Publication Centre)

The Fed's action, statement, and forecasts, and Chair Yellen's press conference, made it very clear the Fed is torn between the dovish signals from the recent core inflation data, and the much more hawkish message coming from the rapid decline in the unemployment rate.

12 October 2017 The Catalan Government is on the Brink. Early Regional Elections? (Publication Centre)

We struggle to see how the pro-separatist movement in Catalonia can move forward from here.

16 Oct. 2015 Bund Yields are Too Low, but no Serious Increase Until Next Year (Publication Centre)

Bond markets in the euro area have been a calm sea recently relative to the turmoil in equities, credit and commodities. Following the initial surge in yields at the end of second quarter, 10-year benchmark rates have meandered in a tight range, recently settling towards the lower end, at 0.5%. Our outlook for the economy and inflation tells us this is to o low, even allowing for the impact of QE.

20 Mar. 2015 Earnings and Treasuries at Risk, but the ECB's QE is a Wild Card (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, we would have no hesitation calling for substantially higher long Treasury yields and a lower earnings multiple as the Fed raises rates. History tells us that you fight the Fed at your peril, as our first two charts show.

23 October 2018 Will Yields on Gilts Close the Gap with Treasuries? (Publication Centre)

The gap between U.K. and U.S. government bond yields has continued to grow this year and is approaching a record.

19 March 2018 Will Rising Labor Participation Fix Everything this Year? (Publication Centre)

We need to take a closer look at the chance of a sustained rise in the labor participation rate, which is perhaps the single biggest risk to the idea that 2018 will be a good year for the stock market, with limited downside for Treasuries.

22 Jan. 2015 Should We Be Scared by the Flattening Curve? (Publication Centre)

The flattening of the curve in recent months has been substantial, but in our view it is telling us little, if anything, about the outlook for growth. More than anything else, investors in longer Treasuries care about inflation, and the likely path of headline inflation clearly has been lowered by the plunge in oil prices.

7 April 2017 What Place will QE have in the Bank's Future Policy Mix? (Publication Centre)

Markets were jolted yesterday by news that the U.S. Fed is mulling ending, or at least slowing, the reinvestment of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities later this year. Such a move would reduce liquidity in global markets that has underpinned soaring equity prices in recent years.

07 May. 2015 How Far Will Yields Rise When the Activity Data Turn Higher? (Publication Centre)

Along with just about every other commentator and market participant, we have been wondering in recent months how longer Treasuries would react to the Fed starting to raise rates at the same time the ECB and BoJ are pumping new money into their economies via QE.

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