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548 matches for " sentiment":

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hold the press; we have an increase in the EC sentiment index.

EZ Datanote: Business and Consumer Sentiment, France, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Marginally better in manufacturing; upturn in consumer sentiment halted, for now.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downbeat consumer sentiment casts doubt over the Tories' majority hopes.

U.S. Datanote: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, June (p) (Publication Centre)

In one line: Sentiment still very elevated; inflation expectations dip.

27 February 2019 Consumer Sentiment Signal better EZ Consumption Data in H1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer sentiment data in the two major euro area economies were mixed, but they still support our view that a rebound in EZ consumption growth is underway.

2 Dec 2019 Business Sentiment Likely has Hit Bottom, but Hard Data Still Softening (Publication Centre)

We're reasonably happy with the idea that business sentiment is stabilizing, albeit at a low level, but that does not mean that all the downside risk to economic growth is over.

22 June. 2016 Resilient EZ Survey Data Ahead, but Sentiment Would Fall on Brexit (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ZEW investor sentiment in Germany shows showed no signs that uncertainty over the U.K. referendum is taking its toll on EZ investors. The expectations index surged to 19.2 in June, from 6.4 in May, the biggest month-to-month jump since January last year, when investors were eagerly expecting the ECB's QE announcement.

13 April 2018 Stock Price Hit May Hurt Consumers' Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Whatever happened to consumers' sentiment in March, the level of University of Michigan's index will be very high, relative to its long-term average.

30 Aug 2019 Trade Spats are Starting to Hurt Business Sentiment in Korea (Publication Centre)

The recent spate of manufacturing business survey indices from Korea show that sentiment is deteriorating in the wake of its trade spat with Japan and the re-intensification of U.S.-China tensions.

9 April 2019 Small Business Sentiment Ought to be Rebounding Capex Plans too (Publication Centre)

The recovery in small business sentiment since the fourth quarter rollover has been extremely modest, so far.

7 April 2017 Mexico Sentiment is on the Mend as U.S. Threats are Easing, for Now (Publication Centre)

Sentiment has been improving gradually in Mexico in recent weeks, reversing some of the severe deterioration immediately after the U.S. presidential election. Year-to-date, the MXN has risen 10.3% against the USD and the stock market is up by almost 8%. We think that less protectionist U.S. trade policy rhetoric than expected immediately after the election explains the turnaround.

27 June 2019 Are Rising Jobless Claims a Drag on German Consumer Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer sentiment data provided further evidence of a strengthening French economy, amid signs of cracks in the otherwise solid German economy.

8 March 2019 Business and Consumer Sentiment in Stark Contrast Who's Right (Publication Centre)

Consumer sentiment in Mexico continues to improve, consistent with tailwinds from the relatively strong labour market and the president's rising approval ratings.

10 Sept 2019 What are EZ Investor Sentiment Data Telling You, if Anything (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday suggest that EZ investor sentiment is on track for a modest recovery in Q3.

7 November 2018 Sentiment Surveys are Deteriorating in Mexico Texcoco Airport Effect (Publication Centre)

Recently released data in Mexico are sending weak signals for the business outlook, and the Texcoco airport saga won't help.

EZ Datanote: Advance Consumer Sentiment, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but not a major shift in the key story.

6 February 2017 Mexico's Sentiment Depressed by Trump Fears and "Gasolinazo" (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest hard data suggest things might not be as bad as we feared. Retail sales and manufacturing output were relatively strong at the end of last year, the Q4 preliminary GDP report was mostly upbeat, and the labor market was firing on all cylinders.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Sentiment, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

No change; overall robust.

EZ Datanote: Advance CPI Germany and EC Sentiment (Publication Centre)

In one line: The bottom in German inflation is in, at least in the near term.

25 August 2017 Sizzling Business Sentiment in France Signals Firm Q3 GDP (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business surveys contains hundreds of indicators, but its central story is comfortably simple.

10 July 2018 Should we be Excited About the Rebound in EZ Investor Sentiment (Publication Centre)

It has been mostly doom and gloom for euro area investors in equities and credit this year.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Sentiment, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Like watching paint dry.

13 November 2018 Will Poor Sentiment and Political Uncertainty Knock EZ Investment (Publication Centre)

The outlook for private investment in the Eurozone has deteriorated this year, especially in manufacturing.

24 April 2019 Industrial Sentiment is Stabilizing, Despite the Richmond Fed Drop (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data were mixed, though disappointment over the weakening in the Richmond Fed survey should be tempered by a quick look at the history, shown in our first chart.

25 July. 2016 EZ Sentiment Looks Resilient in the Face of Brexit...For Now (Publication Centre)

Friday's July PMI reports presented investors with a rather confusing story. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell trivially to 52.9 in July, from 53.1 in June, despite rising PMIs in Germany and France. The final data on 3 August will give the full story, but Markit noted that private sector growth outside the core slowed to its weakest pace since December 2014.

29 Nov 2019 The Recovery in Sentiment Will Be Fleeting, if the Tories' Majority is Small (Publication Centre)

The emergence last month of a new E.U. Withdrawal Agreement that has a strong chance of being ratified by MPs appears to have given a small boost to business confidence.

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Disappointing given last month's rebound.

U.S. Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: The consumer is just fine; recent softness in spending is temporary.

U.S. Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, August preliminary (Publication Centre)

In one line: Trade wars have consequences.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Business and consumer confidence is diverging.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still a big gap between business and consumer confidence.

U.S. Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, November Prelim (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumers are mostly still quite happy, but no sustained improvement is likely.

U.S. Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, October preliminary (Publication Centre)

In one line: Holding up, but for how much longer?

US Datanote: Michigan Consumer Sentiment, December (preliminary) (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lifted by the stock market.

UK Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Indicative of confidence recovering, if the Withdrawal Agreement is passed quickly.

U.S. Datanote: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, September (p) (Publication Centre)

In one line: The trend is softening; blame the trade war.

U.S. Datanote: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Confidence high and stable; inflation expectations steady.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Economic Sentiment, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: Consumers are defiantly optimistic, despite the Brexit saga.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment, France, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Much better than the PMIs.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Sentiment, Germany, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Decent headline, even better details.

EZ Datanote: Economic Sentiment, Eurozone, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: Surprisingly strong, but too soon to cheer.

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Positive, but the trend is still down.

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending and Inflation in France and EC Sentiment (Publication Centre)

In one line: Only a modest Q3 rebound for consumption in France?

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Sentiment, Germany, July (Publication Centre)

In one line: The downtrend resumes, but take the headline with a pinch of salt.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Sentiment, Germany, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Soft, but still consistent with solid growth in consumption.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment, France, November (Publication Centre)

In one line: Relief; but manufacturing is not out of the woods yet.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Sentiment and Advance PMIs, France, May (Publication Centre)

In one line: Not bad at all.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Sentiment, Germany, September (Publication Centre)

In one line: Lukewarm ... but still consistent with decent growth in spending.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Sentiment, Germany, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Encouraging, but the details were mixed.

EZ Datanote: Consumer Sentiment, Eurozone, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Another soft headline at the start of Q4.

EZ Datanote: Business Sentiment, France, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Slightly confusing manufacturing data; but overall picture is robust.

29 September 2016 Consumers' Spending Growth in Germany is Slowing, Modestly (Publication Centre)

Survey data in the Eurozone were mixed yesterday. In Germany, the advance GfK consumer sentiment index slipped to 10.0 in October, from 10.2 in September, marginally below consensus forecasts. The details, reported for September, also were soft.

29 October 2018 The Glass is Half-Full for French and German Households (Publication Centre)

Friday's consumer sentiment data in the two main Eurozone economies were mixed.

30 March 2017 How will French Consumers React to Lower Real Wage Growth? (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators for consumers' spending in France are sending conflicting signals. Survey data suggest that households are in a spendthrift mood. Data yesterday showed that the headline consumer sentiment index was unchanged in March at 100, the cycle high.

31 May 2018 Recovering Consumer Confidence Won't Lift Spending, Much (Publication Centre)

The widespread view, which we share, that GDP will rebound in Q2 following the disruption caused by bad weather in Q1, was supported yesterday by the E.C.'s Economic Sentiment survey.

5 June 2018 Eurozone Investors Haven't Been this Gloomy Since 2012 (Publication Centre)

If you were looking just at investor sentiment in the Eurozone, you would conclude that the economy is in recession.

4 September 2018 Is Fear of Further Tariffs Boosting Capex and Inventory-Building? (Publication Centre)

While we were out, most of the core domestic economic data were quite strong, with the exception of the soft July home sales numbers and the Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

29 Oct. 2015 EZ Consumers Remain Upbeat, but Downside Risks in Germany (Publication Centre)

Consumer sentiment data yesterday from the major economies were mixed, signalling that support to Eurozone GDP growth from surging German household consumption is waning. The key "business outlook" index--which correlates best with spending--plunged to a 30-month low in October, while the advance GfK sentiment index dipped to 9.4 in November from 9.6 in October. We see little signs in retail sales data of slowing momentum, and also think consumers' spending rebounded in Q3. But our first chart shows that the fall in the GfK index implies clear downside risks in coming quarters.

29 May 2019 Consumer and Business Confidence Show Diverging Responses to Brexit (Publication Centre)

May's E.C. Economic Sentiment survey was a blow to hopes that the six-month stay of execution on Brexit would facilitate a recovery in confidence.

27 September 2017 A Stable and Solid Outlook for Private Investment in France (Publication Centre)

French business sentiment cooled marginally at the end of Q3. The headline manufacturing confidence index dipped to 110 in September, from 111 in August, though the overall business sentiment gauge was unchanged at 110.

27 October. 2016 Consumers' Spending in Germany will Continue to Slow, Modestly (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's consumer confidence report in Germany was soft, in contrast to surging business sentiment data earlier in the week.

28 January 2019 The IFO Piles the Pressure on an Already Weak German Economy (Publication Centre)

Judging by the survey data, German business sentiment remained depressed at the start of the year.

28 November 2018 Is Mr Macron About to Lose to the Street Like his Predecessors (Publication Centre)

Our hopes that tax cuts and lower energy inflation would lift French household consumption in Q4 were badly dented by yesterday's consumer sentiment report.

29 Apr. 2015 Upbeat French consumers, but unemployment is a dark spot (Publication Centre)

Household sentiment in France continues to improve, consistent with tailwinds from low energy prices and accommodative monetary policy. INSEE's measure of consumer confidence rose to 94 in April, up from 93 in March, the highest since November 2010.

8 June 2018 The FX Sell-off has Put Central Banks Under Stress, will they Act? (Publication Centre)

EM risk sentiment remains grim as the Trump administration dispenses protectionist trade measures. LatAm's biggest economies, Brazil and Mexico, have been hit the hardest, with their currencies falling 3.3% and 2.2% respectively in the last week, the most in the EM world.

22 Nov 2019 Soft Manufacturing in France, but Robust Services and Construction (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data in France suggests that business sentiment in the industrial sector remained soft mid-way through Q4, but the numbers are more uncertain than usual this month.

16 March 2018 Housing Starts and Manufacturing Likely Shone in February (Publication Centre)

Today brings yet another broad array of data, with new information on housing construction, industrial production, consumer sentiment, and job openings.

2 March 2018 Q1 Growth is Set to Disappoint, Again, the Big Picture is Unchanged (Publication Centre)

This week has seen a huge wave of data releases for both January and February, but the calendar today is empty save for the final Michigan consumer sentiment numbers; the preliminary index rose to a very strong 99.9 from 95.7, and we expect no significant change in the final reading.

15 May 2019 The Escalation of Trade Tensions Fans Concerns for LatAm's Upturn (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets did well in Q1, on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD.

14 March 2017 Small Firms are Happy, but When Will Their Capex Plans Pick up? (Publication Centre)

Small businesses remain extremely positive about the economy, but some of the post-election gloss appears to be wearing off. To be clear, the headline composite index of small business sentiment and activity in February, due this morning, will be much higher than immediately before the election, but a modest correction seems likely after January's 12- year high.

10 January 2019 We have Seen this Movie Before in French Consumer Confidence (Publication Centre)

History is repeating itself in France. When the Republican Nicolas Sarkozy defeated the Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal in April 2007, consumer sentiment briefly soared to a six-year high, before plunging to an all-time low a year later.

21 February 2019 Will the Real Story in French Services Please Stand Up (Publication Centre)

Today's data dump will deliver the advance PMIs and the French INSEE business sentiment indices for February, all of which will be examined closely for signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that EZ growth is slowing quicker than markets and the ECB have been expecting.

21 Jan. 2015 Welcome Gain in ZEW, but Still Not Confirmed by IFO or PMIs (Publication Centre)

Investor sentiment in the Eurozone showed further signs of recovery yesterday. The ZEW expectations index rose strongly to 48.4 in January from 34.9 in December, and the leap since the trough in October ranks among the strongest rebounds ever recorded in the index.

22 June 2018 Survey Data Suggest that French Manufacturing will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business sentiment data suggest that confidence in the industrial sector was a little stronger than expected in Q2.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 Nov 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour market remains tight but will face persistent slackening from here. Caixin manufacturing on a tear. In the end, CPI deflation in Korea lasted just one month. October probably was the y/y trough in Korea's export slump. Business sentiment in Korea is recovering... albeit only slowly.

US 19 January 2018 Where is the Rebound in CPI Physicians' Services? (Publication Centre)

Today brings only the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment data for January so we want to take some time to look at how recent changes to Medicare Part B premiums, which cover doctors' fees, are likely to affect inflation over the next few months.

21 September 2018 The EZ Consumer is Still in Good Shape (Publication Centre)

Consumer sentiment in the euro area has slipped this year, though the headline indices remain robust overall.

21 June 2019 Financial Markets in the Eurozone are now in Bizarro-World (Publication Centre)

Swoons in EZ investor sentiment are not always reliable leading indicators for the economic surveys, but it is fair to say that risks for today's advance PMIs are tilted to the downside, following the dreadful Sentix and ZEW headlines earlier this month.

27 Nov 2019 The German Consumer is Doing Fine, but Risks Loom in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report in the EZ showed that consumer sentiment in Germany improved mid-way through the fourth quarter.

1 August 2018 Is Consumers' Confidence Really at a 21-month High? (Publication Centre)

We're inclined to place little weight on July's E.C. Economic Sentiment Survey, which showed that consumers' confidence has picked up to its highest level since October 2016; see our first chart.

23 November 2018 Economic Growth in France Should Maintain Momentum in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data in France, tentatively suggest that business sentiment is stabilising following a string of declines since the start of the year.

25 May 2017 Is it Time to Tell a Less Upbeat Story on the Eurozone Consumer? (Publication Centre)

Markets cheered soaring business surveys in the Eurozone earlier this week, and recent consumer sentiment data also have been cause for celebration. The advance GfK consumer confidence index in Germany rose to a record high of 10.4 in June, from 10.2 in May.

23 November 2017 Is EZ Consumption on Track for Grand Finish to 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance consumer sentiment index in the Eurozone confirmed the upside risks for consumers' spending in Q4. The headline index rose to a 17- year high of +0.1 in November, from -1.0 in October.

23 January 2018 Eurozone Households Enter 2018 With Robust Tailwinds (Publication Centre)

Today's data likely will show that EZ households' sentiment remained close to a record high at the start of the year.

26 September 2018 Is the French Economy Still on Track For a Rebound in H2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business sentiment data was mixed.

26 June 2019 Services and Construction Will Lift French Capex in Q2, and in H2 (Publication Centre)

The INSEE's manufacturing sentiment data in France are slightly confusing at the moment.

26 Feb. 2015 GDP growth will pick up in the Eurozone this year (Publication Centre)

Hard economic data for the first quarter will appear over the next few weeks, but the EC sentiment survey later today gives a useful overview of how the euro area economy started the year.

23 February 2018 IFO and INSEE Business Surveys Compound February Misery (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national surveys in the EZ confirmed the downbeat message from the PMIs and consumer sentiment data earlier this week.

25 April 2018 A Warning From the IFO (Publication Centre)

The April IFO business sentiment survey increased the degree of uncertainty over the German economy, following stabilisation in the PMIs earlier this week.

27 May. 2016 French Consumers are in Good Shape, but Q2 Spending Will Slow (Publication Centre)

We think today's consumer sentiment survey in France will show that the headline index was unchanged at 94 in May. The survey's forward looking components have weakened modestly in recent months, due to declines in households' outlook for their financial situation and standard of living in the coming 12 months.

27 March 2019 All Set for a Rebound in German Consumption Growth in H1 (Publication Centre)

German retail and consumer sentiment data for March have been mixed this week, but broadly support our call that growth in consumption should pick up soon.

25 Feb. 2016 Fundamentals for French Consumers Remain Resilient (Publication Centre)

A downbeat French INSEE consumer sentiment report yesterday continued the run of poor survey data this week. The headline index fell to 95 in February from 97 in January, indicating downside risk f or Q1 consumers' spending. But we remain optimistic that private consumption will rebound solidly, following a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter fall in Q4.

11 April 2017 Why are Small Firms' Capex Plans so Soft even as Sentiment Soars? (Publication Centre)

Nowhere is the gap between sentiment and activity wider than in the NFIB survey of small businesses. The economic expectations component leaped by an astonishing 57 points between October and December, but the capex intentions index rose by only two points over the same period, and it has since slipped back. In February, the capex intentions index stood at 26, compared to an average of 27.3 in the three months to October.

11 Sept. 2015 Falling Stock Set to Depress Consumers' Sentiment (Publication Centre)

People don't like to see the value of their portfolios decline, and it is just a matter of time before the benchmark measures of consumer sentiment drop in response to the 7% fall in the S&P since mid-August. Sometimes, movements in stock prices don't affect the sentiment numbers immediately, especially if the market moves gradually. But the drop in the market in August was rapid and dramatic, and gripped the national media.

22 Apr. 2015 Sustained job gains are key to Eurozone consumers sentiment (Publication Centre)

Advance April consumer survey data will likely confirm that households remain the standout driver of the cyclical recovery in the euro area. We think the headline EC consumer sentiment index rose to -1.0 in April from -3.7 in March.

Wall Street Journal - U.S. Consumer Sentiment Held Steady in Early July (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Consumer Sentiment

25 Sept. 2015 Economic Sentiment is Holding Up amid Investor Angst (Publication Centre)

The two main national surveys--IFO and INSEE-- both beat consensus forecasts yesterday, supporting our story of that economic sentiment is holding up relatively well in the face increasing investor anxiety. In Germany, the main IFO business climate index rose marginally to 108.5 from a revised 108.4 in August, boosted by an increase in the expectations index to a six-month high of 103.3, up from 102.0 in August. The IFO expectations index points to real GDP growth rising 0.5%-to-0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3.

16 Sept. 2015 Will Downbeat Sentiment Push the ECB into More QE this Year? (Publication Centre)

Economic data are telling a story of a strengthening recovery, but downbeat investor sentiment points to a more difficult environment. The headline ZEW expectations index fell to a ten-month low of 12.1 in September, from 25.0 in August. This takes sentiment back to levels not seen before QE was announced, highlighting the increasing worry that deflation risks and low growth in China will derail the recovery. We don't agree, but we can't be sure the ECB thinks the same, and risks of additional stimulus this year have increased.

8 May 2018 Small Firms' Sentiment Likely has Weakened Further, but no Disaster (Publication Centre)

We're looking forward to today's April NFIB survey of activity and sentiment in the small business sector with some trepidation.

24 July. 2015 Retail Sales on Track for New High, Despite Dip in Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Advance Eurozone consumer sentiment fell disappointingly to -7.1 in July, from -5.6 in June, but it is consistent with a solid trend in retail sales growth. Household consumption in the zone has surged in the last four quarters, and a modest loss of momentum in Q3 and Q4 is a reasonable bet. But we see little risk of a sharp slowdown in the shor t run, and the trend in spending growth should stabilize at an annualised 1.5% this year.

29 June. 2016 French Households are in a Good Mood, Despite Dip in Sentiment (Publication Centre)

French consumer sentiment dipped slightly in June, but we see no major hit from ongoing labour market disputes. The headline index slipped to 97 in June, from 98 in May; this is a decent reading given the fourpoint jump last month. The headline was constrained by a big fall in consumers' "major purchasing intentions," but this partly was mean-reversion following a surge last month.

BUSINESS INSIDER - Homebuilder sentiment dropped in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on NAHB

26 October 2018 It Would Take a Lot to Turn the ECB Away from Ending QE in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The ECB kept its cool yesterday, at the headline level, amid crashing stock markets, volatile BTPs and souring economic data.

28 Aug 2019 Consumers are Very Happy About the Labor Market: Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

We were happy to see upside surprises from both sides of the domestic economy yesterday, but we doubt that the August readings from both the Conference Board's consumer confidence survey and the Richmond Fed business survey can hold.

28 April 2017 The ECB is Happier about the Economy, But not Inflation (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting painted a picture of a central bank in wait-and-see mode. The main refinancing and deposit rates were kept at 0.00% and -0.4% respectively, and the marginal lending facility rate also was unchanged at 0.25%.

26 Sept 2019 Another Month, Another Increase in French Consumer Confidence (Publication Centre)

Economic news in the Eurozone, and virtually everywhere else, has been mostly downbeat in the past few months, but French consumers are doing great.

28 August 2018 Germany's Economy is Resilient in the Face of External Risks (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed GDP data in Germany confirm that the euro area's largest economy performed strongly in the second quarter.

26 Nov 2019 Three Reasons to Remain Open- Minded About the Election Result (Publication Centre)

The Conservatives have continued to gain ground over the last week, with support averaging 43% across the 13 opinion polls conducted last week, up from 41% in the previous week.

26 March 2019 A Few Bright Spots in the IFO, but Still an Overall Subdued Story (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO offered a rare upside surprise in the German survey data.

26 March 2019 Consumers are Cash-Rich and Confident Don't Worry About Them (Publication Centre)

When Fed Chair Powell said last week that the "surprise" weakness in the official retail sales numbers is "inconsistent with a significant amount of other data", we're guessing that he had in mind a couple of reports which will be updated today.

26 Nov 2019 The IFO in Germany Still Tells a Story of Imminent Recession (Publication Centre)

The November IFO report suggests that the headline indices are on track for a tepid recovery in Q4 as a whole, but the central message is still one of downside risks to growth

26 September 2017 Another Marginal Dip in the IFO, and Murky Politics in Germany (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany sent a marginally more downbeat message than the strong PMIs last week. The IFO business climate index fell to 115.2 in September, from 115.9 in August, its second straight monthly dip.

27 September 2018 What to Expect From Today's 2019 Budget Headlines in Italy (Publication Centre)

Today is a busy day in the Eurozone economic calendar, but we suspect that markets mainly will focus on the details of Italy's 2019 budget.

27 Feb. 2015 M1 growth is sending a very bullish on the Eurozone economy (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the Eurozone are sending an increasingly upbeat message on the economy. Yesterday saw a barrage of numbers, but the most startling of them was the continued acceleration in the money supply.

27 March 2017 Eurozone PMI Data are Sizzling, but can they be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance Eurozone PMI reports capped a fine quarter for the survey. The composite PMI jumped to a 80-month high of 56.7 in March, from 56.1 in February, rising to a cyclical high over Q1 as a whole.

27 Jan. 2016 The Curious Case of Missing Equity Earnings in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Eurozone investors continue to look to the ECB as the main reason to justify a constructive stance on the equity market. Last week, the central bank all but promised additional easing in March, but the soothing words by Mr. Draghi have, so far, given only a limited lift to equities. Easy monetary policy has partly been offset by external risks, in the form of fears over slow growth in China, and the risk of low oil prices sparking a wave of corporate defaults. But uncertainty over earnings is another story we frequently hear from disappointed equity investors. We continue to think that QE and ZIRP offer powerful support for equity valuations in the Eurozone, but weak earnings are a key missing link in the story.

28 August 2018 Mexico Struggled at the End of the First Half Will it Rebound (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy shrank by 0.2% quarter- on-quarter in Q2, according to the final GDP report, a tenth worse than the preliminary reading.

27 March 2018 Consumers' Spending Constrained by Cashflow, not Confidence (Publication Centre)

Whichever way you choose to slice the numbers, consumers' spending is growing much more slowly than is implied by an array of confidence surveys.

27 Nov 2019 Housing Market Activity will Spring Back Early Next Year (Publication Centre)

Political uncertainty is starting to dampen housing market activity again.

27 June 2017 Flat Capex Orders won't Stop the Labor Market Tightening Further (Publication Centre)

The flat trend in core capital goods orders continued through May, according to yesterday's durable goods orders report. We are not surprised.

27 Sept 2019 Are the Balance of Risks Shifting for the Better in the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Money supply data are sending an increasingly contrarian, and bullish, signal for the euro area economy.

27 April 2017 Today's ECB Meeting Will be a Snoozer for Markets (Publication Centre)

It's always dangerous when risk assets rally strongly into an ECB meeting, but we doubt that investors have much to fear from today's session in Frankfurt. We think the central bank will leave its main refinancing and deposit rates at 0.00% and -0.4% respectively.

27 April 2018 Mexico and Argentina had Good First Quarters, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

This week's Mexican retail sales report for February offered more support to our view that domestic conditions improved at the end of Q1.

28 Apr. 2016 Eurozone Real Narrow Money Growth Continues to Slow (Publication Centre)

Monetary dynamics in the Eurozone were virtually unchanged last month. M3 growth rose trivially to 5.0% year-over-year in March from a revised 4.9% in February. It was lifted by stronger growth in medium-term deposits and issuance of short-term debt.

28 February 2019 The Probable Delay to Brexit Makes a Q3 Rate Hike a Closer Call (Publication Centre)

We have no choice but to revise down our forecast for GDP growth in Q2, now that the threat of a no-deal Brexit likely will hang over the economy beyond March, probably for three more months.

28 September 2018 Trend in EZ Real M1 Indicates that Markets are Too Optimistic on Growth in 2019 (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, it appears that politicians in Italy have agreed on a 2019 budget deficit of 2.4% of GDP.

29 April 2019 More Soft Surveys in the EZ, but the Q1 GDP Data Should Be Solid (Publication Centre)

The EZ economic survey data for April were disappointing in our absence.

28 September 2018 Confidence is Starting to Fray as the Brexit Deadline Nears (Publication Centre)

The persistence of no-deal Brexit risk has taken a toll on confidence across the economy over the last month.

28 Oct 2019 The PM Can Get His Election Soon, But He Must Pay a Higher Price (Publication Centre)

MPs will be asked today to approve the PM's motion, proposed in accordance with the Fixed-term Parliaments Act--FTPA--to hold a general election on December 12.

28 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP was Dire, Official Headlines Don't Tell the Half of it (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2 and 6.4% in Q1. Consecutive 0.2 percentage points declines are significant in China.

28 Oct 2019 Germany is in Recession, When Will the Recovery Begin? (Publication Centre)

Survey data in Germany showed few signs of picking up from their depressed level at the start of Q4.

29 Aug 2019 How About Slightly Stronger EZ GDP Growth in Q3 and Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply data in the Eurozone were solid across the board.

29 Jan. 2015 Inflation data will be kind to bondholders, for now (Publication Centre)

Last week's QE announcement has made Eurozone inflation prints less important for investors, but the market will still be watching for signs of a turning point in benchmark bond yields. The data are unlikely to challenge bond holders in the short run, however, as the Eurozone probably slipped deeper into deflation in January.

29 Nov 2019 Banxico will Keep Cutting Rates, but Prudence will Prevail in the Near Term (Publication Centre)

Data released this week have confirmed that the Mexican economy is struggling and that the near-term outlook remains extremely challenging.

29 Nov 2019 EZ Leading Indicators are Still Mixed, We put our Faith in M1 (Publication Centre)

Leading economic indicators in the Eurozone continue to send contradictory signals. Most of the headline surveys indicate that a further slowdown, and perhaps even recession, are imminent, while the money supply data suggest that GDP growth is about to re-accelerate.

29 March 2019 German Core Inflation Slumped in March, but it will Rebound in April (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday revealed that headline inflation in Germany was unchanged in March at 1.5%, thanks mainly to higher energy inflation, which offset a dip in food inflation.

29 June 2017 The EZ Economy is in Great Shape, but Probably not Getting Better (Publication Centre)

Money supply dynamics in the Eurozone were broadly stable last month. M3 rose 5.0% year-over-year in May, accelerating slightly from a 4.9% increase in April, in line with the trend since the middle of 2015.

29 Jan. 2016 EZ Core Inflation is Rising, but Weak Oil Prices are Still a Wildcard (Publication Centre)

German data yesterday indicate that inflation pressures have, so far, been resilient in the face of the recent collapse in oil prices. Inflation rose to 0.5% year-over-year in January from 0.3% in December, partly due to base effects pushing up the year-over-year rate in energy prices, but core inflation rose too. The detailed state data indicate that almost all key components of the core index contributed positively, lead by leisure and recreation and healthcare.

28 November 2017 Consumers' Spending Ought to be Strong this Holiday Season (Publication Centre)

Media reports suggest that the underlying trends in retailing--rising online sales, declining store sales and mall visits--continued unabated over the Thanksgiving weekend.

28 Nov 2019 Spare a Thank You for the Strong and Stable French Consumer (Publication Centre)

French consumers remained in great spirits midway through the fourth quarter. The headline INSEE consumer confidence index jumped to a 28-month high in November, from 104 in October, extending its v-shaped recovery from last year's plunge on the back of the yellow vest protests.

28 Jan. 2016 Italy Gets its "Bad Bank," but Implementation Looks Difficult (Publication Centre)

Reports yesterday indicated that a deal has finally been struck between the European Commission and the Italian government to start dealing with bad loans in the banking system. The initial details suggest the government will be allowed to guarantee senior tranches on non-performing loans, supposedly making them easier to sell to private investors. In order to avoid burdening government finances as part of the sales--not allowed under the new banking union rules--the idea is to price the guarantees based on the credit risk of similar loans.

28 January 2019 PBoC CBSs: Not Quite QE, but Potentially a Useful Step (Publication Centre)

Last week the Chinese authorities issued a series of new measures to help with bank recapitalisation, and, we think, to supplement interbank liquidity.

28 Jan. 2015 Economic Momentum Means no Easing in Mexico this Year (Publication Centre)

Mexico's central bank, Banxico, will hold its first monetary policy meeting of this year tomorrow. It will break with tradition, holding the meeting on Thursday at 1:00 p.m, local time, instead of the previous 9:00 a.m slot.

26 June 2019 Green Shoots in Semiconductors, but they aren't Out of the Woods (Publication Centre)

Major central banks in Asia, particularly those operating in export-oriented economies, have recently been pinning their future policy moves on the prospects of a specific industry, namely semiconductors.

28 February 2019 A Dovish Money Supply Report Ahead of the March ECB Meeting (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's January EZ money supply data offered support for investors betting on a further dovish shift by the ECB at next month's meeting.

28 June 2018 Real M1 Still Points to Slower GDP Growth, Despite a Rebound in May (Publication Centre)

Money supply growth in the Eurozone rebounded slightly last month, reversing some of the weakness at the start of the year.

28 June 2019 Consumers' Confidence Still Points to Steady Growth in Spending (Publication Centre)

The latest E.C. survey shows the gap between firms' and households' confidence levels has remained substantial.

28 May 2019 The Trade War: What we Know, What we Believe, and What we Don't Know (Publication Centre)

The trade war with China is a macroeconomic event, whose implications for economic growth and inflation can be estimated and measured using straightforward standard macroeconomic tools and data.

28 Nov 2019 Record Registrations Hint the Youth Vote Will Surprise to the Upside Again (Publication Centre)

The deadline for registering to vote in the general election passed on Tuesday, with a record 660K people registering on the final day.

28 May 2019 Count on Consumers to Drag the Economy Through the Brexit Mess (Publication Centre)

The Prime Minister's resignation and the stillborn launch of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill last week has forced us to revise our Brexit base case, from a soft E.U. departure on October 31 to continued paralysis.

28 March 2019 Further Signs that Negative Rates are Here to Stay in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Bond yields in the Eurozone took another leg lower yesterday.

28 March 2018 Is Wage Growth About to Reach a Turning Point? (Publication Centre)

Wage growth will be crucial in determining how quickly the MPC raises interest rates this year. So far, it hasn't recovered meaningfully.

28 February 2017 The Eurozone Business Cycle Upturn is Resilient and Robust (Publication Centre)

Money supply dynamics in the Eurozone continue to signal a solid outlook for the economy. Headline M3 growth eased marginally to 4.9% year-over-year in January, from 5.0% in December; the dip was due to slowing narrow money growth, falling to 8.4% from 8.8% the month before. The details of the M1 data, however, showed that the headline chiefly was hit by slowing growth in deposits by insurance and pension funds.

26 April 2017 French Business Confidence is Solid, but Manufacturing Fell in Q1 (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.

23 May 2019 Did the Main EZ Survey Data Take a Further Tumble in May (Publication Centre)

Today's EZ calendar is a busy one.

23 Oct 2019 Mr. Macron is Blowing the Budget in France, it's Working, for now (Publication Centre)

The prospect of fiscal stimulus in the euro area-- ostensibly to "help" the ECB reach its inflation target-- remains a hot topic for investors and economists.

23 March 2018 Don't Over-Interpret the Latest Soft Survey Data in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of economic data in the Eurozone added to the evidence that economic momentum is slowing.

23 June 2017 Will French Domestic Demand in Rebound in Q2? (Publication Centre)

The June batch of the French statistical office's business surveys continues to signal a firming cyclical recovery. The aggregate business index rose to cyclical high of 106 in June from a revised 105 in May, continuing an uptrend that began in the middle of 2016.

23 April 2019 Brazil's Economy will Improve, but Rising Political Risk Remains a Drag (Publication Centre)

The economic data in Brazil were poor while we were away.

23 August 2017 All Systems Go for Italy's Economy, but Don't ask About the Long Run (Publication Centre)

The performance of Italy's economy in the first half of 2017 proves that the strengthening euro area recovery is a tide lifting all the r egion's boats.

23 Oct 2019 The Richmond Fed Suggests the Worst is Over for the ISM, for now (Publication Centre)

The 17-point leap in the Richmond Fed index for October, reported yesterday, was startlingly large.

24 August 2018 The Glass is Half-Full in the Eurozone PMI Data for August (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data in the Eurozone economy were a mixed bag.

24 June 2019 Capex and Stock Market Fears Explain the Fed's Itchy Trigger-Finger (Publication Centre)

The apparent softness of business capex is worrying the Fed.

24 March 2017 TLTROs Finish with a Bang, but it Probably does not Mean Much (Publication Centre)

Robust demand in the ECB's final TLTRO auction was the main story in EZ financial markets yesterday. Euro area banks--474 in total-- took up €233.5B in the March TLTRO, well above the consensus forecast €110B. To us, this strong demand is a sign that EZ banks are taking advantage of the TLTROs' incredibly generous conditions.

24 July 2019 Copom to Cut Rates, Thanks to Low Inflation and Progress on Reforms (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Brazil helped to lay the ground for interest rate cuts over the coming months.

24 July 2018 GDP Growth in Korea Likely Slipped in Q2, on Cooler Domestic Demand (Publication Centre)

GDP data for Q2 are due July 26; we expect the report to show a marginal dip in growth, to a seasonally adjusted 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, from 1.0% in Q1.

24 July 2018 EZ Consumption Accelerated in H1, But Will Slow in H2 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone consumer confidence remained at its low for the year at the start of Q3.

23 April 2018 Japan's Inflation Faces Near-Term Headwinds, but Core Will Trend up (Publication Centre)

Japan's headline CPI inflation is set to edge down in coming months, thanks to non-core prices.

22 Oct 2019 Two Idiosyncratic Factors are Adding to the EZ Economy's Woes (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in the EZ economy is well publicised.

21 Nov 2019 Will the End of the Local Authority Borrowing Binge Hit Capex? (Publication Centre)

Borrowing by local authorities from the Public Works Loan Board, used to finance capital projects-- and arguably dubious commercial property acquisitions--has surged this year.

21 Oct 2019 Are Portfolio Flows Turning in Favour of Eurozone Equities (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external surplus recovered a bit of ground mid-way through the third quarter.

21 Nov 2019 The Philly Fed Looks Great, but it's a Huge Outlier and Can't be Trusted (Publication Centre)

If the only manufacturing survey you track is the Philadelphia Fed report, you could be forgiven for thinking that the sector is booming.

21 Nov 2019 EZ Equities are Teasing Investors to Disregard Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

The year so far in EZ equities has been just as odd as in the global market as a whole.

21 December 2018 Consumption Will Firm in Mexico in Q4, Despite October's Poor Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's report on October private spending in Mexico was downbeat, suggesting that consumption started the fourth quarter on a weak footing.

21 Mar. 2016 The Fed Either Hopes for a Miracle or Wants Inflation to Overshoot (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen made it clear in last week's press conference that she is not convinced the increase in core inflation will persist: "I want to warn that there may be some transitory factors that are influencing [the rise in core inflation]... I see some of that is having to do with unusually high inflation readings in categories that tend to be quite volatile without very much significance for inflation over time.

21 Oct 2019 No Lasting Relief for the Economy, if the New Brexit Deal Eventually Passes (Publication Centre)

The government now has a 50:50 chance of getting the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament in the coming weeks, despite Letwin's successful amendment and the extension request.

21 Oct 2019 Political Uncertainty Comes to U.S. Markets, What Happens Next (Publication Centre)

In recent client meetings the first and last topic of conversation has been the market implications of the possible departure of President Trump from office.

22 Nov 2019 No Respite in Sight for LatAm Currencies in the Near Term (Publication Centre)

Most LatAm currencies have been under pressure recently, with the Brazilian real and the Chilean peso breaking all-time lows versus the USD in recent weeks.

22 Oct 2019 China-Sensitive Regions are Suffering as the Trade War Worsens (Publication Centre)

After the strong Philly Fed survey was released last week, we argued that the regional economy likely was outperforming because of its relatively low dependence on exports, making it less vulnerable to the trade war.

22 Nov 2019 Don't Worry About the Uptick in Jobless Claims, Unless it Persists (Publication Centre)

Back-to-back elevated weekly jobless claims numbers prove nothing, but they have grabbed our attention.

22 February 2019 This Month's PMI Headline: Weak Manufacturing, Strong Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's February PMI data sent a clear message to markets.

22 August 2017 Don't Hold Your Breath for Euro-Sterling Parity (Publication Centre)

Sterling's renewed depreciation to just €1.10--just below last year's nadir--has fuelled speculation that it could reach parity against the euro within the next year.

24 May 2018 No Relief to Markets from the Eurozone PMIs in May (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data in the Eurozone did little to calm investors' nerves amid rising political uncertainty in Italy and tremors in emerging markets.

24 May 2019 A Little bit of Everything in the May EZ Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data were a mixed bag. The composite EZ PMI edged higher in May to 51.6, from 51.5 in April, but the details were less upbeat, and also slightly confusing.

25 September 2017 Argentina's Economy is Improving, Good News for Macri and Markets (Publication Centre)

Argentina's economy continues to recover steadily.

29 Oct 2019 Can we Rely on M1 as a Leading Indicator in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ money supply data confirmed that liquidity conditions in the private sector improved in Q3, despite the dip in the headline.

25 Sept. 2015 Yellen Defends Orthodoxy: Policy Lags Mean Rates to Rise this Year (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen set out a robust and detailed defense of the orthodox approach to monetary policy in her speech in Amherst, MA, yesterday afternoon. Her core argument could have come straight from the textbook: As the labor market tightens, cost pressures will build. Monetary policy operates with a "substantial" lag, so waiting too long is dangerous; the "...prudent strategy is to begin tightening in a timely fashion and at a gradual pace".

25 Sept 2019 More Bad News from the IFO, but the INSEE Data are More Upbeat (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's business confidence data in the EZ core were mixed.

25 Oct 2019 Capex is Falling, and a Huge Aircraft Inventory Overhang is Building (Publication Centre)

The gaps in the third quarter GDP data are still quite large, with no numbers yet for September international trade or the public sector, but we're now thinking that growth likely was less than 11⁄2%.

25 October 2017 EZ PMIs Stepped Back at the Start of Q4, but Still Signal Solid Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance PMI reports in the euro area signal that economic momentum slowed slightly at the start of Q4.

26 August. 2015 Sharp Swings In LatAm Markets Highlights Their Vulnerabilities (Publication Centre)

LatAm currencies and stock markets have suffered badly in recent weeks, but Monday turned into a massacre with the MSCI stock index for the region falling close to 4%. Markets rebounded marginally yesterday, but remain substantially lower than their April-May peaks. Each economy has its own story, so the market hit has been uneven, but all have been battered as China's stock market has crashed. The downward spiral in commodity prices--oil hit almost a seven-year low on Monday--is making the economic and financial outlook even worse for LatAm.

26 August. 2016 EZ Economic Bulls Checked by IFO and INSEE Business Surveys (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany was a nasty downside surprise for markets. The business climate index slipped to 106.2 in August, from 108.3 in July, well below the consensus forecast for a modest rise. In addition, the expectations index slid ominously to 100.1, from a revised 102.1 in July.

26 January 2018 The Euro and EZ Bond Yields are not for Turning, Even by Mr Draghi (Publication Centre)

As expected, the ECB made no changes to its policy stance today. The refi and deposit rates were left at 0.00% and -0.4%, respectively, and the pace of purchases under QE was maintained at €30B per month.

26 July 2017 National Surveys are Not Bogged Down by Disappointing PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national business surveys provided an optimistic counterbalance to the underwhelming PMIs on Monday, although they all suggest that the euro area economy is in good form.

26 January 2017 The IFO Points to Solid GDP Growth in Germany, Despite Dip (Publication Centre)

The trend of consensus-beating EZ economic data was brought to a halt yesterday. The IFO business climate index in Germany slipped to a five-month low of 109.8 in January, from 111.0 in December, mainly due to a fall in the expectations index. But we are not alarmed. The dip in the headline comes after a run of strong data, and the IFO remains consistent with GDP growth of about 1.6% year-over-year.

26 January 2017 GDP Growth Remained Brisk in Q4, but Headwinds are Building (Publication Centre)

Today's preliminary estimate of Q4 GDP likely will show that the Brexit vote has not caused the economy to slow yet. But growth at the end of last year appears to have relied excessively on household spending, which has been increasingly financed by debt. GDP growth likely will slow decisively in Q1 as the squeeze on households' real incomes intensifies.

26 Feb. 2016 Growth in Narrow Money is Robust, but Slowing Noticeably (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply data gave some respite after last month's disappointing slowdown. Broad money growth--M3--rose to 5.0% year-over-year, from 4.7% in December, but the details were less encouraging. The rebound was solely due slower declines in medium-term deposits, short-term debt issuance, and repurchase agreements.

25 Oct 2019 A Dignified Farewell by Mr. Draghi, All Eyes Now on Ms. Lagarde (Publication Centre)

The ECB made no changes to policy yesterday, leaving its key refinancing and deposit rates unchanged, at 0.00% and -0.5%, and confirmed that it will restart QE in November at €20B per month.

25 Nov 2019 The PMI Data Still Signal Weaker Growth ahead in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The PMIs in the Eurozone are still warning that the economy is in much worse shape than implied by remarkably stable GDP growth so far this year.

24 Oct 2019 Core Capex Orders aren't as Weak as the ISM Suggests... Yet (Publication Centre)

Core durable goods orders have not weakened as much as implied by the ISM manufacturing survey, as our first chart shows, but it is risky to assume this situation persists.

24 October 2017 EZ Consumers' Spending Slowed in Q3, but Should Rebound in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Eurozone consumers' spending jumped in Q2, but we are pretty certain that a slowdown in retail sales constrained growth in Q3.

24 Oct 2019 A Standing Ovation for Mr. Draghi Today as he Departs the ECB (Publication Centre)

Today's ECB meeting will mainly be a victory lap for Mr. Draghi--it is the president's last meeting before Ms. Lagarde takes over--rather than the scene of any major new policy decisions.

24 November 2017 Slowdown in German Domestic Demand Will Reverse in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed GDP report in Germany showed net exports propelled GDP growth to a cyclical high last quarter.

24 May 2019 Mexican Retail Sector is Stabilizing Despite Tight Financial Conditions (Publication Centre)

Mexico's retail sector is finally improving, following a grim second half last year.

24 Sept. 2015 PMIs Point to Stable and Strong Eurozone GDP Growth in Q3 (Publication Centre)

PMI data yesterday provided some relief to anxious investors, despite a modest drop in the headline. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell to 53.9 in September from 54.3 in August, driven by slight falls in both manufacturing and services. Assuming no major changes to the advance September reading--usually a fair bet--the PMI rose marginally in Q3, pointing to a continuation of the cyclical recovery.

25 April 2018 Brazil's Labour Market Recovery Has Lost Momentum, but it will Improve (Publication Centre)

In Brazil, last week's formal payroll employment report for March was decent, with employment increasing by 56K, well above the consensus expectation for a 48K gain.

25 June 2019 A New Fall in Mexican Services is Setting the Stage for a Poor Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Mexico strengthened the case for interest rate cuts this year.

25 Nov 2019 The New Flash PMIs: Plenty of Noise, not Much Signal (Publication Centre)

Investors think it more likely that the MPC will cut Bank Rate in the first half of next year, following Friday's release of the flash Markit/CIPS PMIs for November.

25 July 2019 Grim Manufacturing Data Confirm Investors' Priors in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Broadly speaking, yesterday's headline EZ survey data recounted the same story they've told all year; namely that manufacturing is suffering amid resilience in services.

25 February 2019 Manufacturing Continues to Weaken, no Floor Yet in Sight (Publication Centre)

Last week's data added yet more weight to our view that manufacturing is in deep trouble, and that the bottom has not yet been reached.

25 April 2019 Aircraft will Flatter March Durable Goods Orders Expect a Weak Core (Publication Centre)

If you wanted to be charitable, you could argue that the downturn in the rate of growth of core durable goods orders in recent months has not been as bad as implied by the ISM manufacturing survey.

26 June 2018 The German Economy is No Longer Firing on All Cylinders (Publication Centre)

The verdict from the German business surveys is in; economic growth probably slowed further in Q2.

3 July 2017 Is the Jump in Eurozone Core Inflation Really Temporary? (Publication Centre)

Friday's euro area inflation reported capped a difficult week for EZ bondholders, although most of the damage was done beforehand by the advance German data.

31 May 2018 Eurozone Headline Inflation is About to Zoom Past 2% (Publication Centre)

Many investors probably glossed over yesterday's barrage of data in the Eurozone, for fear of being caught out by another swoon in Italian bond yields. Don't worry, we are here to help.

31 October 2018 Eurozone GDP Growth hit a Speed Bump in the Third Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of economic data in the Eurozone offered a good snapshot of the grand narrative.

31 May 2017 Manifestos Point to Very Different Public Borrowing Paths (Publication Centre)

The recent narrowing of the Conservatives' opinion poll lead suggests that investors, particularly in the gilt market, now must consider other parties' fiscal proposals.

31 May 2017 Argentina's Economic Recovery Continues, but Brazil's is at Risk (Publication Centre)

The outlook for Argentina is improving. We expect economic growth to remain quite strong over the next year, despite a relatively soft start to 2017 and increasing external threats in recent weeks. The INDEC index of economic activity--a monthly proxy for GDP--is volatile, rising 1.9% month-to-month in March after a 2.6% drop in February, but the underlying trend is improving.

6 Nov 2019 Some Preliminary Thoughts on EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year (Publication Centre)

Judging by interactions with readers in the past few weeks, fiscal policy is one of the most important topics for EZ investors as we move into the final stretch of the year.

31 October 2018 The October ADP will be Constrained by the Soft September Payroll Data (Publication Centre)

Today's October ADP measure of private payrolls likely will overshoot Friday's official number.

31 October. 2016 Mexico and Brazil Are Stabilizing at Different Speeds, For Now (Publication Centre)

While we were out, the economic news in LatAm was mostly positive. The main upside surprise came from Mexico, with the IGAE activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rising 2.9% year-over-year in August, up from 1.2% in July, and an average of 2.4% in Q2. A modest rebound was anticipated, but the headline was much better than we and the markets expected.

7 Oct 2019 Progress on Brazil's Fiscal Reform Resilient Remittances in Mexico (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Senate concluded last week the first vote- of-two- on the pension reform.

4 July 2018 Household Balance Sheets in the Eurozone are in Good Shape (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that Momentum in the EZ retail sector stumbled through middle of Q2.

4 December 2017 Britain Will be Forever Stuck in the Brexit Departure Lounge (Publication Centre)

Sterling strengthened last week to its highest tradeweighted level since mid-May, amid hopes that the U.K. government will concede more ground to ensure that the European Council deems, at its December 14 meeting, that "sufficient progress" has been made in Brexit talks for trade discussions to begin

4 Dec 2019 EURUSD is Poised to Move, The Case for a Rise is Strengthening (Publication Centre)

Implied volatility on the euro is now so low that we're compelled to write about it, mainly because we think the macroeconomic data are hinting where the euro goes next.

4 Dec 2019 ADP Employment Likely to Capture Weakening Labor Demand (Publication Centre)

The ADP employment report was on the money in October at the headline level--it undershot the official private payroll number by a trivial 6K--but the BLS's measure was hit by the absence of 46K striking GM workers from the data.

7 Sept. 2015 Mexico's Recovery In Place But Constrained By External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Growth momentum in Mexico has improved marginally over the last few months after the soft patch during the first quarter, with business and households gaining confidence in the economic recovery. But the upswing has been rather modest, due to the volatility in global financial markets and the challenging external environment. The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated over recent months due to China's problems, and commodity prices remain under pressure. All these factors are now weighing on investors' confidence and hurting EM across asset classes.

31 March 2017 Eurozone Inflation Data will Undershoot the Consensus Today (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance data from Germany and Spain suggest that today's Eurozone inflation report will undershoot the consensus. In Germany, headline inflation slipped to 1.6% in March from 2.2% in February, and in Spain the headline rate plunged to 2.3% from 3.0%.

30 Oct 2019 Don't Put All Your Election Chips on Blue (Publication Centre)

Britain looks set for a general election during the week commencing December 9, now that all main parties are pushing for a pre-Christmas poll.

30 Oct 2019 Will the Pension Reform Bring Back the Yellow Vests in France (Publication Centre)

French consumer confidence and consumption have been among the main bright spots in the euro area economy so far this year.

30 Oct 2019 BoJ Forecasts Due for a Downgrade, Expect a Package of Measures (Publication Centre)

Markets see a strong possibility, though not a probability, that the BoJ will cut rates on Thursday.

30 November. 2016 EZ Inflation Data Will Disappoint Today, but it Will Rise Further (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance inflation data in Germany fell short of forecasts--ours and the consensus--for a further increase. Inflation was unchanged at 0.8% year-over-year in November, but we think this pause will be temporary.

7 February 2018 Risk Asset Sell-off Likely Won't Derail LatAm's Benign Outlook (Publication Centre)

The sell-off in equity markets and increases in volatility have put EM assets under pressure. EM equities and bonds, however, have been outperforming their U.S. and global market counterparts.

30 October 2017 New Elections in Catalonia Beckon as Madrid Activates Article 155 (Publication Centre)

The headlines from Catalonia are as confusing as ever, but we are sticking to our view--see here--that regional elections are the only reasonable outcome of the chaos.

6 September 2017 EZ Consumers' Spending Likely will Slow in Q3, but don't Panic (Publication Centre)

EZ consumers' spending slowed at the start of Q3. Retail sales slipped 0.3% month-to-month in July, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 2.6% from an upwardly revised 3.3% in June.

31 July 2019 Rising Confidence Points to Solid Household Spending Ahead of Brexit (Publication Centre)

The further depreciation of sterling yesterday, to its lowest level against the dollar and euro since March 2017 and September 2017, respectively, signified deepening pessimism among investors about the chances of a no-deal Brexit.

7 September 2017 Japanese Regular Wages Breaking out of a 20-year Stagnation? (Publication Centre)

Japanese labour cash earnings data threw analysts another curveball in July, falling 0.3% year-over-year. At the same time, June earnings are now said to have risen by 0.4%, compared with a fall of 0.4% in the initial print.

6 Nov 2019 The Two-Quarter Productivity Boomlet is Over, ULC Accelerating (Publication Centre)

Productivity growth reached the dizzy heights of 1.8% year-over-year in the second quarter, following a couple of hefty quarter-on-quarter increases, averaging 2.9%.

30 Sept. 2015 The Eurozone is Probably Back in Deflation, But Not For Long (Publication Centre)

Advance inflation data from Germany and Spain yesterday indicate that the Eurozone slipped back into deflation in September. German inflation fell to 0.0% in September from 0.2% in August, and deflation intensified in Spain as inflation fell to -0.9% from -0.4% last month. This likely pushed the advance Eurozone estimate--released today--below zero. We think inflation fell to -0.1% in September, down from +0.1% in August. The fall will be due mainly to falling energy prices, and we continue to think that the underlying trend in inflation is stabilising, or even turning up.

30 October 2018 Policymakers in Chile and Colombia Opting for Divergent Paths, For Now (Publication Centre)

Inflation pressures remain under control in most LatAm economies, allowing central banks to keep interest rates on hold, despite the challenging external environment.

4 March 2019 Is the Slowdown in Money Growth an Ominous Sign (Publication Centre)

January's money supply figures continued the nerve-jangling flow of data on the economy's momentum.

6 Nov 2019 A Lukewarm Response from Firms to the New Brexit Deal (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS services survey suggests that the PM's new Brexit deal has had a lukewarm reception from firms.

5 Nov 2019 Chilean Private Demand will Slow in Q4, Rising Exports will Ease the Pain (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions are deteriorating rapidly in Chile, despite the relatively decent Imacec reading for Q3.

5 Nov 2019 How Much Further Can Support for the Two Main Parties Rally? (Publication Centre)

Support in opinion polls for both the Conservatives and Labour has been increasing steadily.

5 May 2017 Surveys Signal a Solid Start to Q2, but "Hard" Data Remain Weak (Publication Centre)

Activity surveys picked up across the board in April, offering hope that the slowdown in GDP growth--to just 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q1-- will be just a blip. The headline indicators of surveys from the CBI, European Commission, Lloyds Bank and Markit all improved in April and all exceeded their 2004-to-2016 averages.

6 June 2018. Brazil's Industrial Sector Maintained Momentum in April, Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Brazil was sizzling. Headline output jumped 0.8% month- to-month in April--well above the 0.4% consensus-- pushing the year-over-year rate up to 8.9%, a five- year high.

5 March 2018 Consumers' Spending in Germany Probably will Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in Germany suggest that households had a slow start to the year.

6 February 2017 EZ Households are in Good Shape, But Spending Will Slow in 2017 (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending in the euro area weakened at the end of Q4, but we think households will continue to boost GDP growth in the first quarter. Data on Friday showed that retail sales fell 0.3% month-to-month in December, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.1%, from a revised 2.8% in November.

5 Nov 2019 ISM Non-manufacturing Crushed by the Trade War, has it Bottomed (Publication Centre)

The simultaneous decline in both ISM indexes was a key factor driving markets to anticipate last week's Fed easing.

6 Dec 2019 Downside Risk for November Payrolls, Ex-GM, we Expect Just 60K (Publication Centre)

October payrolls were stronger than we expected, rising 128K, despite a 46K hit from the GM strike.

6 December 2017 Low Rates Will Continue to Spur the Industrial Recovery in Brazil (Publication Centre)

Brazilian data strengthened early in Q4, supporting the case for the COPOM to slow the pace of rate cuts. We expect the SELIC policy rate to be lowered by 50bp today, to 7.0%.

5 Sept 2019 The PMIs Recession Signal is Misleading, GDP Will Rise in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Recession fears were fanned yesterday by the renewed deterioration of the Markit/CIPS services survey.

5 October 2017 Consumers' Spending in the Eurozone Slowed in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone will rekindle the debate on hard versus soft data. The final composite PMI rose to 56.7 in September, from 55.7 in August, in line with the first estimate.

5 Nov 2019 No Relief for Manufacturing in the Eurozone at the Start of Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs for October were grim, but they told investors nothing they don't already know.

5 June 2019 The Fed will Ease if Trade Makes the Sky Fall in Otherwise, Patience (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell yesterday said about as little as he could without appearing to ignore the turmoil in markets since the President announced his intention to apply tariffs to imports from Mexico: "We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective."

7 Nov 2019 India Started Q4 Badly, Modi's RCEP Snub is Short-Sighted (Publication Centre)

India's PMIs for October were grim, indicating minimal carry-over of energy from the third quarter rebound.

7 Nov 2019 Storm Clouds Gathering for the Auto Market as Loan Standards Tighten (Publication Centre)

One bad month proves nothing, but our first chart shows that October's auto sales numbers were awful, dropping unexpectedly to a six-month low.

4 Nov 2019 The MPC Won't Send Up a Flare While the Outlook Remains Cloudy (Publication Centre)

The economic and political backdrop to this week's Monetary Policy Committee meeting is significantly more benign than when it last met on September 19.

4 Nov 2019 The Jobs Outlook is Deteriorating Despite the Solid October, ex-GM (Publication Centre)

The unexpectedly robust 128K increase in October payrolls--about 175K when the GM strikers are added back in--and the 98K aggregate upward revision to August and September change our picture of the labor market in the late summer and early fall.

4 Nov 2019 Are Markets Eyeing a Bottom in EZ GDP Growth? (Publication Centre)

We have spent the past few weeks shifting our story on the EZ economy from one focused on slowing growth and downside risks to a more balanced outlook. It seems that markets are starting to agree with us.

4 May 2018 A Solid Start to the Year for Chile's Economy, Will the Trend Continue? (Publication Centre)

This week's March economic activity reports in Chile have been relatively strong, with the industrial sector expanding briskly and retail sales solid.

5 April 2017 The Construction Sector Will Continue to Tread Water (Publication Centre)

Evidence that the U.K. economy has slowed significantly this year is starting to come in thick and fast. Following the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI on Monday --which signalled that growth in production declined in March to its lowest rate since July--the construction PMI dropped to 52.2 in March, from 52.5 in February.

5 Aug 2019 An Election Still Is Too Risky for the Tories, Despite the (Publication Centre)

The Conservatives are rallying in the opinion polls, as their uncompromising line on leaving the E.U. by October 31, come what may, resonates with Brexit party supporters.

5 July 2019 Will Higher Savings Hold Back EZ Consumption Again this Year? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ consumers' spending data were mixed. Retail sales in the euro area fell by 0.3% month-to-month in May, extending the slide from a revised 0.1% dip in April.

6 June 2019 The PMIs Still Aren't Weak Enough to Justify Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, markets' newfound view that the MPC's next move is more likely to be a rate cut than a hike was supported by May's Markit/CIPS PMIs.

5 July 2019 Chile's Retail Sector is Stabilizing, but Policy Uncertainty Remains (Publication Centre)

The economic recovery disappointed in Chile during most of the first half of the year, despite relatively healthy fundamentals, including low interest rates, low inflation and stable financial metrics.

5 Dec 2019 The Downshift in ADP Employment Probably is Signal, not Noise (Publication Centre)

We were worried about downside risk to yesterday's ADP employment measure, but the 67K increase in November private payrolls was at the very bottom of our expected range.

30 November 2018 Fraying Confidence and Slowing Money Growth Point to a Weak Q4 (Publication Centre)

Further political wrangling yesterday distracted from data showing that the risk of no -deal Brexit is placing increasing strain on the economy.

7 February 2018 The EZ Economy Should be Resilient to Rising Market Volatility (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, equities in the Eurozone are having a bad day following the collapse in U.S. and Asian equities earlier.

30 April 2018 The Q1 Slowdown Wasn't Just Weather-related (Publication Centre)

Last week's preliminary estimate of Q1 GDP has extinguished any lingering chance that the MPC might raise interest rates at its next meeting on May 10.

30 April 2019 Focus on Accelerating M1 Growth amid Still-Poor Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic numbers in the Eurozone were mixed, but we are inclined to see them through rose-tinted glasses.

3 Sept 2019 Still Mostly Bad News in the Eurozone Manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ manufacturing PMIs for August provided little in the way of relief for the beleaguered industrial sector.

3 Sept 2019 Don't Rely on the Manufacturing PMI for an Accurate Read in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The fall in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 47.4 in August--its lowest level since July 2012--from 48.0 in July suggests that pre-Brexit stockpiling isn't countering the hit to demand from Brexit uncertainty and the global industrial slowdown.

3 November 2017 Brazilian Manufacturing Continued to Support the Recovery in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector continued to support the economy in Q3. The underlying tr end in output is rising and leading indicators point to further growth in the near term.

30 April 2019 No Boost to Business Confidence from the Brexit Delay (Publication Centre)

News that the U.K.'s departure from the E.U. has been delayed by six months, unless MPs ratify the existing deal sooner, appears to have done little to revive confidence among businesses.

30 August 2017 Argentina's Recovery is Gaining Traction but Inflation is Still a Risk (Publication Centre)

Recently data from Argentina continue to signal a firming cyclical recovery. According to INDEC's EMAE economic activity index, a monthly proxy for GDP, the economy grew 4.0% year-over-year in June, up from an already-solid 3.4% in May.

7 Nov 2019 A Rare Batch of Good News in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were mostly positive.

7 March 2018 Will Snow Disruption Freeze the MPC in its Tracks? (Publication Centre)

Last week's heavy snowfall, which blighted the entire country, will depress GDP growth in Q1, making it harder for the MPC to read the economy.

30 January 2017 Real M1 Indicates a Solid Start to 2017, but What Happens Next? (Publication Centre)

The business cycle upturn in the Eurozone likely will remain resilient in the first half of 2017. Friday's money supply data showed that headline M3 growth increased to 5.0% in December, from 4.9% in November.

30 August. 2016 Real GDP Growth in the Eurozone is About to Come Down a Notch (Publication Centre)

Money supply data in the euro point to a cyclical peak in GDP growth this year. Headline M3 growth fell to 4.8% year-over-year in July, from 5.0% in June, chiefly due to a slowdown in narrow money. M1 growth declined to 8.4%, from 8.7%, as a result of weaker momentum in overnight deposits and currency in circulation.

30 August 2018 The Base is Low for a Q3 Rebound in French Consumers' Spending (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data in the French economy provided the final confirmation that growth remained sluggish in Q2, and showed that households had a slow start to the third quarter.

3 May 2017 BanRep Acted Boldly on Friday. Will the BCRP follow Suit Next Week? (Publication Centre)

Colombia's sluggish growth and near-term economic outlook resembles that of most other LatAm economies. Domestic demand is weak, credit conditions are tight, and confidence is depressed. The medium term outlook, however, is perking up, slowly.

3 June 2019 Headline and Core Inflation in the Eurozone Fell Sharply in May (Publication Centre)

Last week's May CPI data in the major EZ economies all but confirmed the story for this week's advance estimate for the euro area as a whole.

3 Dec 2019 A Look at the Bright Side in the EZ Manufacturing PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the headline index in the euro area rebounded further last month.

3 Dec 2019 Chainstore Sales for Thanksgiving Week Usually Look Good, but... (Publication Centre)

The Redbook chainstore sales survey today is likely to give the superficial impression that the peak holiday shopping season got off to a robust start last week.

3 Dec 2019 Can Labour Continue to Reduce the Tories' Poll Lead? (Publication Centre)

The political momentum in the run-up to the election now lies with Labour.

3 April 2018 GDP Growth in the Eurozone is Slowing, but Not Collapsing (Publication Centre)

The economic data in the Eurozone were mixed while we were away.

29 Oct 2019 Monetary Stimulus Alone Won't be Able to End the Next Recession (Publication Centre)

Monetary policy usually is the first line of defence whenever a recession hits.

3 Dec 2019 Tariffs on Steel Aluminium Highlight Downside Risks for LatAm (Publication Centre)

President Trump tweeted yesterday that he wants to re-introduce tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Brazil and Argentina, after accusing these economies of intentionally devaluing their currencies, hurting the competitiveness of U.S. farmers.

3 December 2018 March 29 Is Not an Immovable Deadline for Brexit (Publication Centre)

Both the E.U. and the U.K. government have been keen to emphasise, since the Withdrawal Agreement was provisionally signed off, that March 29 is a hard deadline for Brexit.

6 December 2017 Don't Take Seriously Surveys Pointing to Faster Q4 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

November's Markit/CIPS surveys for the manufacturing, construction and services sectors suggest that GDP growth is on track to strengthen a touch in Q4.

3 July 2019 Not All Construction Sector Indicators are Flashing Red (Publication Centre)

Don't write off the outlook for the construction sector purely on the basis of June's grim Markit/CIPS survey.

3 January 2019 No Respite for Eurozone Manufacturing at the end of 2018 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report in the Eurozone confirmed that the economy slowed further at the end of 2018.

3 January 2019 China's PMIs Deteriorate What are the Positives Amid the Gloom (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin manufacturing PMI doused hopes of turning over a January new leaf; it dropped to 49.7 in November, from 50.2 in December.

3 January 2018 Synchronized Recovery in the Andes. Inflation Continues to Fall (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent weeks have confirmed that the Andean economies retained a degree of momentum in Q4, with inflation well under con trol.

US 15 September 2017 Core CPI Mean-Reverts, Hefty Storm-Induced Increases Ahead? (Publication Centre)

The run of soft core CPI numbers is over. The average 0.18% increase over the past two months probably is a good indication of the underlying trend -- the prints would have been close to this pace in both months had it not been for wild swings in the lodging component -- and the other one-time oddities of recent months' have faded.

EZ Datanote: Consumers' Spending and Inflation, France (Publication Centre)

In one line: A solid start to Q2 for French consumers.

8 January 2018 Corporates' Cash Piles: a Future Source of Growth? (Publication Centre)

Business investment held up surprisingly well last year.

8 January 2018 Core Inflation in the Eurozone Remains Pleasantly Low (Publication Centre)

Friday's final EZ inflation report of 2017 sent a dovish signal to bond markets.

21 Aug 2019 Construction in the EZ is Slowing, Driven by Weakness in Germany (Publication Centre)

We still don't have the complete picture of what happened to the EZ construction sector in Q2, but we have enough evidence to suggest that it rolled over.

8 January 2019 A Story for Everyone in Confusing Q4 German Manufacturing Data (Publication Centre)

The German economy's engine room continues to stutter.

8 July 2019 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue? (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirmed that Mexico's economy stumbled in the first half of the year, hurt by a temporary shocks in both the industrial and services sectors, and heightened political uncertainty, due to policy mistakes at the outset of AMLO's presidency.

30 January 2019 Did the "Yellow Vests" Ruin French GDP Growth in Q4? (Publication Centre)

Today's barrage of data kicks off a couple of busy days in the Eurozone economic calendar.

7 February 2018 The Economic Fallout from the Plunge in Equities will be Modest (Publication Centre)

As things stand, we see little reason to revise down our forecasts for the U.K. economy in response to the tailspin in equity markets

30 Nov. 2015 Bullish Economic Data Will Not Deter the ECB this Week (Publication Centre)

Bullish money supply data last week added to the evidence that the Eurozone's business cycle is strengthening. Broad money growth--M3--rose to 5.3% year-over-year in October from 4.9% in September. Most of the increase came from a surge in short-term debt issuance, rising 8.4% year-over-year, following an inexplicable 1.4% fall in September.

8 August 2017 Will Mexico's Economy Resilience Continue in the Second Half? (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy maintained its relatively strong momentum in Q2. The first estimate of Q2 GDP, released last week, confirmed that growth was resilient during the first half of this year, despite the confidence hit caused by domestic and external headwinds.

8 December 2017 Robust Jobs Data Will Emphasize the Labor Market's Tightness (Publication Centre)

We expect to see a 180K increase in November payrolls

30 May 2018 Will Japan's Labour Market Begin to Soften Later this Year? (Publication Centre)

Japan's domestic demand has underperformed in the last three quarters, while exports were strong last year but weakened--due to temporary factors--in Q1.

8 Nov 2019 About that German Recession in Q2 and Q3...It's is a Very Close Call (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in Germany endured another miserable quarter in Q3.

8 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil Supports a Dovish BCB, Mexican Capex Rebounded (Publication Centre)

Headline inflation in Brazil remained low in October, and even breached the lower bound of the BCB's target range.

9 January 2018 Ignore November Dip in German Factory Orders Trend is Still Rising (Publication Centre)

The upturn in German manufacturing orders waned slightly towards the end of 2017; factory orders fell 0.4% month-to-month in November.

9 December. 2016 The Oil Hit Spread Widely Across the Economy - Now, it's Over (Publication Centre)

A core element of our relatively upbeat macro view before the implementation of fiscal stimulus under the new administration is that the ending of the drag from falling capex in the oil sector will have quite wide, positive implications for growth. The recovery in direct oil sector spending is clear enough; it will just track the rising rig count, as usual.

9 July 2019 Japan's Machine Orders Douse Resilient Domestic Demand Hopes (Publication Centre)

The 7.8% month-on-month plunge in Japan's core machine orders in May re-emphasises the underlying weakness that we have been worrying about, after the 5.2% jump in April.

9 November 2018 The Fed is Still on Course to Hike in December no Mention of Stocks (Publication Centre)

Convention dictates that we lead with yesterday's Fed meeting, but it's hard to argue that it really deserves top billing.

9 October 2018 German Manufacturing Slowed Sharply in Q3, Denting Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production data in Germany were better than we feared. Output slipped 0.3% month-to-month in August, depressing the year- over-rate to -0.4% from 1.6% in July, a minor fall given evidence of a big hit from weakness in the auto sector ahead of the EU emissions tests.

9 Dec 2019 Japan's Fiscal Boost will Disappoint, Capacity Constraints are a Drag (Publication Centre)

In Friday's Monitor we analysed the draft Japanese budget, as reported by Bloomberg. We suggested that the GDP bang-for-government-expenditure- buck is likely to be less than that implied by the authorities' forecasts.

9 Dec 2019 Germany's Economy is Still Either in, or Very Close to, Recession (Publication Centre)

The hard data in Germany took a turn for the worse at the start of Q4. The outlook for consumers' spending was dented by the October plunge in retail sales--see here-- and on Friday, the misery spilled over into manufacturing.

8 Nov 2019 Markets Like "Phase One" Trade, but the Next Stages Will be Difficult (Publication Centre)

Markets clearly love the idea that the "Phase One" trade deal with China will be signed soon, at a location apparently still subject to haggling between the parties.

8 Oct 2019 No Need for Households' Saving Rate to Rise Further (Publication Centre)

National accounts data released last week rewrote the recent history of households' saving.

7 June 2018 Car Sales Aren't Recovering Yet, Recent Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

At first glance, car sales appear to be staging a strong recovery, mirroring the better news on high street spending in Q2.

9 April 2018 Hard Data Suggest that the German Economy Stalled in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production report in Germany capped a miserable week for economic data in the Eurozone's largest economy.

29 Oct 2019 China's Economy Still on the Rocks, A Bit More Easing is on its Way (Publication Centre)

Our analysis of the Q3 activity and GDP data in yesterday's Monitor strongly suggests that China's authorities will soon ready further stimulus.

16 May 2018 Downside Risks to April Housing Construction, IP Looks Strong (Publication Centre)

We see downside risk to the housing starts numbers for April, due today. Our core view on housing market activity, both sales and construction activity, is that the next few months, through the summer, will be broadly flat-to-down.

12 February 2019 Mexican Manufacturing set to Struggle in the First Half (Publication Centre)

The Mexican industrial sector is struggling. December industrial output fell 0.4% month-to-month, the third consecutive drop, driven mainly by a similar decline in mining/oil output.

12 February 2018 Chinese Inflation Moderates but Real Incomes are Under Pressure (Publication Centre)

Chinese CPI inflation trends point to diminishing wage growth, as the services sector begins to struggle with the influx of labour displaced by the industrial productivity drive.

12 December 2018 Mexico's Leading Indicators Signal a Challenging Near-term Outlook (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy is not accelerating, but it is holding up very well in difficult circumstances, with rising domestic political risk and stifling interest rates.

12 February 2019 The Details Matter Much More than the NFIB Survey's Headline Index (Publication Centre)

We're very interested in the detail of today's January NFIB survey; the headline index, not so much.

12 June 2018 Should Eurozone Investors Fear U.S. Import Tariffs on Cars? (Publication Centre)

Predictably, last weekend's G7 meeting in Canada ended in acrimony between the U.S. and its key trading partners.

12 March 2019 We Need to Talk a Bit about Revisions to German Construction (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production numbers in Germany were similar to Friday's confusing new orders data.

12 March 2019 Strong January Retail Sales Can't Alone Rescue Q1 Consumption (Publication Centre)

The reported rebound in January retail sales was welcome, but the overshoot to consensus was matched, more or less, by the unexpected downward revisions to the December numbers.

12 Dec 2019 Spare a Moment for Ms. Lagarde, as We Await the Final U.K. Polls (Publication Centre)

The U.K. general election is the main event in today's European calendar, but the first official ECB meeting and press conference under the leadership of Ms. Lagarde also deserves attention.

12 Dec 2019 China's Economic Targets will Remain a Political Affair for 2020 (Publication Centre)

China concludes its annual Central Economic Work Conference today, where the economic targets and the agenda for next year are set.

11 September 2018 EZ Investors are Still Depressed, Probably Excessively So (Publication Centre)

EZ investors remain depressed. The headline Sentix confidence index fell to 12.0 in September, from 14.7 in August, and the expectations gauge slid by three points to -8.8.

11 September 2018 Business Owners Bullish, but Where's the Capex (Publication Centre)

If you had only the NFIB survey of small businesses as your guide to the state of the business sector, you'd be blissfully unaware that the economic commentariat right now is obsessed with the potential hit from the trade tariffs, actual and threatened.

12 April 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Resilient in Q1, Despite External Threats (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Mexico added weight to the idea that the sector improved marginally in the first quarter, despite many external threats. Industrial output rose 0.1% month-to-month in February, following a similar gain in January. The calendar-adjusted year-over-year rate rose to -0.1%, after a modest 0.3% contraction in January.

12 April 2019 Foreign Trade Ought to Offset Weak Q1 Domestic Demand, in Part (Publication Centre)

The sluggishness of consumers' spending and business investment in the first quarter means that hopes of a headline GDP print close to 2% rely in part on the noisier components of the economy, namely, inventories and foreign trade.

12 August. 2016 Consumption Growth Will Slow in Q3, but Remain Respectable (Publication Centre)

It's unrealistic to have a repeat of the second quarter's 4.2% leap in consumers' spending as your base case for the third quarter. It's not impossible, though, given the potential for the saving rate to continue to decline, and the apparently favorable base effect from the second quarter.

12 Aug 2019 A Looming Currency War Adds to the ECB's Dovish Convictions (Publication Centre)

The escalation in the U.S.-Chinese trade wars has understandably pushed EZ economic data firmly into the background while we have been resting on the beach.

12 Nov 2019 If Trump Chooses to Take the Deal, The Economy will Benefit Quickly (Publication Centre)

If the Phase One trade deal with China is completed, and is accompanied by a significant tariff roll-back, we'll revise up our growth forecasts, but we'll probably lower our near-term inflation forecasts, assuming that the tariff reductions are focused on consumer goods.

12 November 2018 Mexico's Industrial Sector did Well in Q3, but Politics are a Threat for 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy gathered strength in Q3, due mainly to the strength of the services sector, and the rebound in manufacturing, following a long period of sluggishness, helped by the solid U.S. economy and improving domestic confidence.

13 October 2017 Did the Hurricanes Lift September's Core CPI, as well as the Headline? (Publication Centre)

Three separate stories will come together to generate today's September core CPI number. First, we wonder if the hurricanes will lift the core CPI.

13 Nov 2019 Will Politicians in Spain Face up to Reality This Time Around? (Publication Centre)

The political situation in Spain remains an odd example of how complete gridlock can be a source of relative stability.

13 Nov 2019 Chile's Protests Have Trashed the Local Market: will it Rebound Soon? (Publication Centre)

Chile's market volatility and high political risk continue, despite government efforts to ease the crisis.

14 December 2017 The ECB Will Deliver a Carbon Copy of its October Meeting Today (Publication Centre)

Car registrations, French inflation, advance PMIs and a central bank meeting make up today's substantial menu for investors in the euro area.

14 February 2017 Brace for January Data to Show Another Hefty Rise in CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

January's consumer price report, released today, likely will show that CPI inflation jumped to 1.9%--its highest rate since June 2014--from 1.6% in December. Inflation will continue to take big upward steps over the coming months, as retailers pass on to consumers large increase in import prices and energy companies increase tariffs.

14 March 2018 Fundamentals for Brazilian Consumers Continue to Improve (Publication Centre)

The consumer in Brazil was off to a strong start to the first quarter, and we expect household spending will continue to boost GDP growth in the near term.

14 June 2019 Retail Sales and IP Both Likely Rebounded in May (Publication Centre)

The wave of May data due for release today likely will go some way to countering the market narrative of a seriously slowing economy, a story which gained further momentum last week after the release of the May employment report.

13 May 2019 Poor Data in Mexico are Gradually Setting the Stage for Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

External and domestic shocks in Mexico over the last two years, including the "gasolinazo", NAFTA renegotiation and the presidential election, have put the country's financial metrics under severe stress and pushed inflation to cyclical highs.

13 June 2017 NFIB Headline Likely to Decay, but Capex and Jobs Readings are Strong (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, we can predict movements in the headline NFIB index from shifts in the key labor market components, which are released a day ahead of the official employment report, and, hence, about 10 days before the full NFIB survey appears.

13 Dec 2019 Ms. Lagarde Passes her First Test, but it won't get any Easier (Publication Centre)

The ECB and Ms. Lagarde played it safe yesterday.

13 Dec 2019 Japan's Machine Orders Hack a Hole in the Notion of Resilient Capex (Publication Centre)

We've been consistent in saying that Japanese capex would roll over this year, after strength in the first three quarters was seen by the authorities and many commentators as a sign of resilience.

13 December 2017 Japan's PPI Inflation Will Soon Fall, but Second-Round Effects to Come (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI inflation edged up further in November to 3.5%, from October's 3.4%. Energy was the main driver, with petroleum and coal contributing 0.8 percentage points to the year-over-year rate, up from a 0.7pp contribution in October.

13 February 2018 Brazilian Households are in Good Shape, Despite Ending Q4 Poorly (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending in Brazil weakened at the end of Q4, but we think households will support GDP growth in the first quarter.

13 June 2017 May's Inflation Figures Likely Will Bring Another Upside Surprise (Publication Centre)

May's consumer price figures, released today, will provide the first clean inflation read for three months, following the distortions created by this year's late Easter. Consensus forecasts and the MPC have underestimated CPI inflation regularly since the middle of last year, when the impact of sterling's depreciation began to push into the data.

13 February 2019 Few Near-Term Upside Risks to Core Inflation Medium-Term Threat Rising (Publication Centre)

The odds favor--just--an end to the three-month streak of solid 0.2% increases in the core CPI with the release of today's January report.

11 Oct 2019 It's a Close Call, but we Still Think Germany was in Recession in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were ugly.

11 Oct 2019 Core Inflation is Still Rising, Despite September's Soft Data (Publication Centre)

The undershoot in the September core CPI does not change our view that the trend in core inflation is rising, and is likely to surprise substantially to the upside over the next six-to-12 months.

1 September 2017 EZ Energy Inflation will Fall Soon, but the Core Rate will Edge Higher (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's aggregate economic data for the euro area showed that inflation rose slightly in August. The headline rate rose to a four-month high of 1.5% in August from 1.3% in July. The rate was lifted mainly by energy inflation, rising to 4.6% from 2.2% in July, but we think the rebound will be short-lived.

1 November 2017 Will the PMIs Show the Economy Resilient to the Looming Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

This week's manufacturing, construction and services PMIs for October will demonstrate how well the economy is coping with the prospect of higher interest rates.

1 Nov 2019 Where's the Fire, The EZ Economy is Weak, but also Stabilising (Publication Centre)

The more headline hard data we see in the Eurozone, the more we are getting the impression that 2019 is the year of stabilisation, rather than a precursor to recession.

10 April 2019 Brazil's Retail Sector Slowed in Q1 Better Credit Conditions will Help (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic activity data have disappointed in recent months, firming expectations that the Q1 GDP report will show another relatively meagre expansion.

10 Dec 2019 Japan's Revised Q3 GDP Growth Reveals a bit More of the Tax Impact (Publication Centre)

Japan's GDP growth was revised up, to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.1% in the preliminary reading.

10 Feb. 2015 German exports are strong, but too dependent on the U.S. and the U.K. (Publication Centre)

External demand for the Eurozone's largest economy is going from strength to strength. Seasonally adjusted German exports rose 3.4% month-to-month in December, equivalent to a solid 7.5% increase year-over-year.The revised indices show that the annualised surplus rose to an all-time high of €218B, or 7% of GDP, last year, indicating that the level of external savings remains a solid support for the economy.

10 Dec 2019 Net Exports in Germany Were Off to a Flying Start in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The early Q4 hard data in Germany recovered a bit of ground yesterday.

1 Nov 2019 The Thought of a Rate Cut Spooks the BoJ into a Parallel Dimension (Publication Centre)

The BoJ yesterday kept the policy balance rate at -0.1%, and the 10-year yield target at "around zero", in line with the consensus.

1 Nov 2019 New Forecasts to Show Government on Course to Break its Fiscal Rule (Publication Centre)

The Office for Budget Responsibility has decided to press ahead with the publication of new fiscal forecasts on November 7, despite the government's decision to postpone the Budget until after the next election.

1 December 2017 Relapse in Confidence Signals the Economy is Only Muddling Through (Publication Centre)

Economy-wide confidence deteriorated in November, highlighting that Britain continues to struggle to shake off its malaise.

07 August. 2015 EZ GDP likely rose 0.4% quarteron- quarter in Q2 due to Ne t Trade (Publication Centre)

This is the final report before your Eurozone correspondent dials down for the summer, and heads for the beach. Advance Q2 GDP data next week is the key release while we are away, with the latest Bloomberg consensus--published July 20th--looking for a 0.4% increase quarter-on-quarter. Everything we look at suggests the consensus is right on this one, with risks tilted to the upside due to strong net exports in Germany.

1 February 2018 New Wage Data Do Not Meaningfully Re-Write History (Publication Centre)

Experimental figures, released earlier this week, suggest that wages have increased at a faster rate than indicated by the average weekly earnings--AWE--data.

1 February 2019 Consumer Confidence Indices Likely are Giving an Overly Downbeat Steer (Publication Centre)

It's tempting to conclude from the recent decline in consumers' confidence that growth in real spending will continue to weaken over the coming quarters, from the already modest 1.8% year-over-year rate in Q3.

1 May 2018 Why has Consumers' Confidence Suddenly Deteriorated Again? (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the timing of the drop in the E.C.'s measure of consumers' confidence, to its lowest level since July 2016 in April, is peculiar.

1 March 2018 The PM's Inevitable Capitulation is Still a Way Off ,Clouding Sterling's Outlook (Publication Centre)

Sterling fell to $1.38, from $1.39, in the hour following the EU's publication of a draft Article 50 withdrawal treaty, which set out the practical consequences of the principles the U.K. agreed to in December.

10 February 2017 Can we Explain Rising Consumer Confidence? What does it Mean? (Publication Centre)

We have questioned the reliability of the recent consumer confidence numbers, and are very skeptical of their signal that spending is set to accelerate rapidly, but we see no real sign yet of any significant reversal of the post-election spike.

10 January 2018 German Industrial Output Growth Won't Accelerate Much Further (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data in Germany were stellar, but base effects mean that the story for Q4 as a whole is less upbeat.

11 March 2019 Early Evidence Points to Solid EZ Manufacturing Data in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Friday's manufacturing data in the Eurozone were mixed.

11 June 2019 What's Happening to Small Firms' Capex and Pricing Plans (Publication Centre)

We already know that the key labor market numbers in today's May NFIB survey are strong.

11 June 2018 The Fed will Hike this Week, but Likely will Hold Back the Fourth Dot (Publication Centre)

The Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, but as usual after a widely-anticipated policy decision, most of our attention will be focused on what policymakers say about their actions, and how their views on the economy have changed.

11 May 2017 A Poor Q1 for French Industrial Production, but Q2 will be Better (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing came roaring back at the end of Q1. Industrial production jumped 2.0% month-to- month in March, driving the year-over-year rate higher to +2.0%, from a revised -0.7% in February.

11 May 2018 Core Inflation is Still Set To Rise, April's Softness won't be Repeated (Publication Centre)

The undershoot in the April core CPI wasn't a huge surprise to us; the downside risk we set out in yesterday's Monitor duly materialized, with used car prices dropping by a hefty 1.6% month-to-month, subtracting 0.05% from the core index.

11 Nov 2019 German Net Exports fell in Q3, but less than in Q2, No recession then (Publication Centre)

Friday's data force us to walk back our recession call for Germany. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus rose in September, to €19.2B from €18.7B in August, lifted by a 1.5% month-to-month jump in exports, and the previous months' numbers were revised up significantly.

11 Nov 2019 AU.S.-Sino Trade Truce will Help to Offset Domestic LatAm Shocks (Publication Centre)

The apparent thaw in the U.S.-China trade dispute is great news for LatAm, particularly for the Andean economies, which are highly dependent on commodity prices and the health of the world's two largest economies

11 July 2018 What Ailed French Manufacturers in the First Half of 2018 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in France were in stark contrast to last week's upbeat German numbers.

11 January 2018 Will France Reap the Rewards of Supply-Side Reforms in 2018? (Publication Centre)

Momentum in French manufacturing eased slightly in November, but the setback was modest. Industrial production dipped 0.5% month-to-month, only partially reversing the revised 1.7% jump in October.

10 November. 2016 A Trump Victory Means Revisions to EU Leaders' Playbooks (Publication Centre)

EZ equity futures predictably fell out of bed as the news of the Trump victory gradually became clear overnight yesterday. The reaction was less violent than after the U.K. Brexit referendum, though, and Mr. Trump's balanced victory speech appears to have calmed nerves for now.

10 May 2018 A Horrible Q1 for Manufacturers in France, but Q2 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing sector slowed more than we expected in Q1.

11 Dec 2019 French Manufacturing is Headed for a Soft Q4, Despite a Solid Start (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in France remained on the front foot at the start of Q4.

11 Dec 2019 The PBoC Could Cut Rates Again this Year, Easing so far is Insufficient (Publication Centre)

China's November money and credit data were a little less grim, with only M2 growth slipping, due to unfavourable base effects.

21 April 2017 Faites vos Jeux! Anything is Possible in France this Weekend (Publication Centre)

This weekend's first round of the French presidential election is too close to call. Our first chart indicates that a runoff between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron remains the best bet. But the statistical uncertainty inherent in the predictions, and the proximity of the two remaining candidates--the centre-right Mr. Fillon and far-left Mr. Melenchon-- mean that this is now effectively a four-horse race.

11 Dec. 2015 Don't be Swayed by Soft Nominal Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Retail sales ex-autos have undershot consensus forecasts in eight of the 11 reports released so far this year, prompting interest rate doves to argue that consumers have not spent their windfall from falling gas prices. But this ignores the impact of falling prices--for gasoline, electronics, furniture, and clothing--on the sales numbers, which are presented in nominal terms.

14 March 2018 Mean Reversion in the CPI Confirms January's Core Jump was a Fluke (Publication Centre)

A significant minority of investors were betting on a repeat of January's outsized 0.349% increase in the core, judging from the immediate market reaction to the release of the February CPI report.

11 February 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Fell Slightly Below The 2% Target in January (Publication Centre)

Analysts' forecasts for January's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, are unusually dispersed.

19 July 2017 CPI Inflation Still is set to Exceed 3% this Year, Despite June's Pullback (Publication Centre)

The fall in CPI inflation to 2.6% in June, from 2.9% in May, greatly undershot expectations for an unchanged rate and it has made a vote by the MPC to keep interest rates at 0.25% in August a near certainty.

19 February 2019 How to Make Sense of Today's Eurozone Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Judging by the monthly production data, construction in the Eurozone slowed sharply in the second half of 2018.

19 December 2018 The Eurozone's German Engine Room is Slowing Steadily (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO data in Germany heaped more misery on the Eurozone economy.

19 July 2017 Falling CPI Physicians Fees are a Response to Rising Part B Premiums (Publication Centre)

The closer we look at the data, the more convinced we become that the rollover in CPI physicians' services prices, which has subtracted nearly 0.1% from core CPI inflation since January, is a response to sharply higher Medicare part B premiums, especially for new enrollees.

19 June 2017 Colombia's Economy Started Q2 Poorly, Expect a Sluggish Recovery (Publication Centre)

Evidence of slowing economic activity in Colombia continues to mount. Retail sales fell 2.0% year- over-rate in April, down from a revised plus 3.0% in March; and the underlying trend is falling. This year's consumption tax increase, low confidence, tight credit conditions, and rising unemployment continue to put private consumption under pressure.

19 Nov 2019 Italian GDP Growth is Rebounding, but at a Painfully Slow Pace (Publication Centre)

Italy's economy is still bumping along the bottom, after emerging from recession in the middle of last year.

19 Nov 2019 Chile's Economy Shifted into Higher Gear in Q3, it will Stall in Q4 and Q1 (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q3 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy gathered speed in the third quarter, but this is now in the rearview mirror.

19 December 2017 New Home Sales and Construction Appear Set to Rocket Next Year (Publication Centre)

In the short-term, all the housing data are volatile. But you can be sure that if the recent pace of new home sales is sustained, housing construction will rise.

19 August. 2016 Retail Data Point to Soft Second Quarter GDP Growth in Colombia (Publication Centre)

Data this week confirmed that private spending in Colombia stumbled in June. Retail sales fell 0.7% year-over-year, from an already poor -0.4% in May. The underlying trend is negative, following two consecutive declines, for the first time since late 2009. Domestic demand remains subdued as consumers are scaling back spending due to weaker real incomes, lower confidence and tighter credit and labor market conditions.

18 June 2019 CPI Inflation is Set to Fall Below- Target Again, But Not as Soon as May (Publication Centre)

We expect May's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation fell to 2.0% in May, from 2.1% in April.

18 August 2017 Sluggish Income Growth has Held Back Consumption, that will Change (Publication Centre)

Consumer confidence surveys have risen since the elections to levels consistent with very rapid growth in real spending.

18 Mar. 2016 Politics in Focus in South America, But for Different Reasons (Publication Centre)

Colombia and Peru have been among the top performers in LatAm currency markets in recent weeks, both rising above 4% against the dollar. Higher commodity prices seem to be driving the rally as domestic factors haven't changed dramatically.

18 Oct 2019 The New Brexit Deal is a Classic EU Fudge, Will it Sink or Swim (Publication Centre)

Our first impression of the proposed Brexit deal between the EU and the U.K. is that it is sufficiently opaque for both sides to claim that they have stuck to their guns, even if in reality, they have both made concessions.

19 Aug 2019 Sometimes, the Obviously Optimal Things don't Happen (Publication Centre)

A big picture approach to the China trade war, from the perspective of Mr. Trump, is reasonably positive. The president very clearly wants to be re-elected, and he knows that his chances are better if the economy and the stock market are in good shape.

18 September 2018 Chainstore Sales Growth has Jumped Thank the Tax Cuts (Publication Centre)

The first estimate of retail sales growth in August was weaker than implied by the Redbook chainstore sales survey, but our first chart shows that the difference between the numbers was well within the usual margin of error.

19 Nov 2019 The End of the Impeachment Process, Push, Jump, or Stay (Publication Centre)

As the impeachment hearings gather momentum, we have been asked to provide a cut-out-and-keep guide to the possible outcomes.

19 October 2017 Q3's Slowdown in EZ Construction is no Threat, the Trend is Firm (Publication Centre)

The upturn in the Eurozone construction sector likely paused in Q3. Yesterday's August report showed that output fell 0.2% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate down to +1.6%, from a revised +2.8% in July.

20 June 2019 A Slowdown in Construction Will Weigh on EZ GDP Growth in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data added further evidence that GDP growth in the EZ will slow in Q2.

20 April 2018 Weak Retail Sales in Q1 Can't be Attributed Solely to Bad Weather (Publication Centre)

The 1.2% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes in March undoubtedly was due mostly to the bad weather.

2 Sept. 2015 Slow, but Persistent, Decline in EZ Unemployment Continues (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's surprising decline in the Eurozone unemployment rate adds further evidence to the story of a slowly healing economy. The rate of joblessness fell to 10.9% in July from 11.1% in June, the lowest since the beginning of 2012, mainly driven by a 0.5 percentage point fall in Italy, and improvement in Spain, where unemployment fell 0.2 pp to 22.2%.

20 March 2019 More Noise than Signal in the Monthly EZ Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Construction in the EZ stumbled at the start of the year.

20 Nov 2019 EZ Construction has Stalled, but Expect a Rebound in H1 2020 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's headline economic data in the euro area were solid across the board, though the details were mixed.

14 May 2019 Rising Trade Tensions Keep Andes' Central Banks on the Sideline (Publication Centre)

Chile and Peru faced similar growth trends in 2018, namely, a solid first half, followed by a poor second half, particularly Q3.

20 Nov 2019 Housing Construction is Trending Higher, Further Gains Ahead (Publication Centre)

The recent increases in single-family housing construction are consistent with the rise in new home sales, triggered by the substantial fall in mortgage rates over the past year.

2 October 2018 How Bad Was the Hit to EZ Auto Production in Q3? (Publication Centre)

The industrial sector in the EZ slowed further at the end of Q3.

2 October 2017 Will the Real Eurozone Core CPI Measure Please Stand Up? (Publication Centre)

Friday's inflation data in the Eurozone added a dovish twist to the story ahead of the key ECB meeting later this month.

19 September 2017 Housing Takes a Modest Hurricane Hit, so far, More to Come? (Publication Centre)

The September NAHB survey, released yesterday, shows, that the housing market took a knock from the hurricanes but the damage, so far at least, appears to be contained.

19 September 2017 Colombia's Economy Finally Hits Bottom, but Recovery will be Slow (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this last week were upbeat, better than we expected, showing a significant pickup in manufacturing output and improving retail sales. Retail sales rose 3.1% year- over-year, after a modest 1.0% increase in June.

19 September 2018 Brazil's Economy is Muddling Through, but the Election is a Risk (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economy surprised to the upside in early Q3, despite downbeat data released in recent days.

2 Dec 2019 Don't Take Your Eye off the Improving Monetary Indicators (Publication Centre)

With campaigning for the general election intensifying last week, it was unsurprising that October's money and credit release from the Bank of England received virtually no media or market attention.

2 February 2017 Rising Inflation Expectations to Yield Hawkish Talk from the MPC Today (Publication Centre)

Expectations are running high that the MPC will strike a more hawkish tone today in the minutes of this month's meeting and in the quarterly Inflation Report. Investors are pricing in a 45% chance of the MPC raising interest rates before the end of 2017, up from 30% before the last Report in November.

2 Dec 2019 Further Increase in Japanese Unemployment in Store (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate was unchanged, at 2.4% in October, as the market took a breather after September's job losses.

18 Apr. 2016 Solid Colombian Manufacturing Sector Offsetting Soft Demand (Publication Centre)

Colombia's economic activity surprised to the upside in February, despite the challenging domestic environment. Private spending rose more than expected, but leading indicators suggest that household consumption will remain weak in Q2. Retail sales jumped 4.6% year-over-year in February, up from a 2.1% increase in January, and the fastest pace since August 2015.

2 Dec 2019 The Effects of the Protests are Starting to Show up in Chile's Data (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies had a bad November, due to global trade war concerns, the USD rebound and domestic factors.

15 Nov 2019 The Current Soft Patch in Retail Sales won't Last Long (Publication Centre)

October's 0.1% month-to-month fall in retail sales volumes was disappointing, following substantial improvements in the CBI, BRC and BDO survey measures.

15 May 2019 German Core Inflation Jumped Way Above Trend in April (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's inflation data in Germany were old news to markets, but the details were spectacular all the same.

15 May 2018 Autos Likely Constrained April Retail Sales, Core Trend is Gently Upwards (Publication Centre)

The story of U.S. retail sales since last summer is mostly a story about the impact of the hurricanes, Harvey in particular.

15 November 2018 From #Euroboom to #Eurogloom What Next for the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's second estimate of GDP confirmed that Eurozone growth slowed significantly in Q3.

15 Oct 2019 Brazil's Modest Recovery Continues, Peru's Central Bank to Cut Soon (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday from Brazil support our view that the economic recovery continues, but progress has been slow.

16 July 2018 Will Eurozone Investment Take a Hit from the Global Trade Conflict? (Publication Centre)

Last week's packed political agenda in Europe confirmed that political relations between the U.S. and the major Eurozone economies remain difficult.

15 Oct 2019 The China Trade Nothingburger won't Turn the Economy Around (Publication Centre)

The New York Times called the China trade agreement reached Friday "half a deal", but that's absurdly generous.

15 March 2019 Will Brazil's Supply and Demand Divergence Continue this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector keeps losing momentum, despite interest rates at record lows and improving confidence.

15 March 2019 Manufacturing Output Likely Rose in February, but the Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing is not in recession, yet, despite the reams of gloomy analysis of the sector, including our own.

14 September 2018 A Tough Fiscal Overhaul to Avoid a Collapse Can Macri Succeed (Publication Centre)

Argentina's central bank held interest rates at 60% on Wednesday, as was widely expected.

18 Apr. 2016 EZ Demand for New Cars Slowed in Q1, and will Slow A gain in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Growth in Eurozone car sales slowed slightly at the end of the first quarter. New car registrations in the euro area rose 5.8% year-over-year in March, down from a 14.4% increase in February. But the 12-month average level of new registrations jumped to new cyclical highs of 440,000 and 252,000 in the core and periphery respectively.

15 Aug 2019 Germany's Economy is in Trouble, but the EZ as a Whole is Stable (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data showed that growth in the EZ slowed in the second quarter.

15 June 2018. Will Private Consumption in Brazil Continue to be the Key Driver in H2 (Publication Centre)

Private consumption remains resilient in Brazil and recent data suggest that growth will continue over the coming months.

15 March 2018 Retail Sales have Corrected from the Post-Hurricane Surge (Publication Centre)

Don't worry about the weakness of the recent retail sales numbers. The three straight 0.1% month-to- month declines tell us nothing about the underlying state of the consumer.

15 June. 2016 Will Political Risk and Uncertainty Overwhelm the EZ Economy? (Publication Centre)

Based on key economic indicators, the Eurozone economy is doing splendidly, relative to its performance in recent years. Real GDP has been growing at 1.6%-to-1.7% year-over-year since the first quarter of last year, bank credit has expanded, and the unemployment rate is declining.

16 June 2017 Housing Construction Should Rebound (Publication Centre)

We were surprised by the weakness of the April housing starts report; we expected a robust recovery after the March numbers were depressed by the severe snowstorms across a large swathe of the country. Instead, single-family permits rose only trivially and multi-family activity--which is always volatile--fell by 9% month-to-month.

16 July 2018 Upside Risks to the Consensus for June CPI Inflation (Publication Centre)

We expect June's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, to show that CPI inflation increased to 2.7%, from 2.4% in May, above the consensus, 2.6%, and the Bank of England's forecast, 2.5%.

17 May 2019 The China-led Industrial Downturn is Ending, Trade War Permitting (Publication Centre)

Evidence in support of our view that the U.S. industrial slowdown is ending continues to mount, though nothing is yet definitive and the re-escalation of the trade war is a threat of uncertain magnitude to the incipient upturn.

17 May 2019 Japan's Q1 GDP will Disappoint, as the Sheen of Local Demand Fades (Publication Centre)

Japan's economic data have been very volatile in the last 18 months.

17 June. 2016 Surging Growth in Eurozone Car Registrations Won't Last (Publication Centre)

The market for new cars in the Eurozone remained red-hot last month. New registrations surged 18.4% year-over-year in May, up from a 9.4% rise in April, and pushing the 12-month average level of registrations to a post-crisis high of 843K units. Accelerating growth in Italy and France was the key driver.

17 Nov. 2015 The Market is Underestimating How Quickly EZ Inflation is Rising (Publication Centre)

Final October inflation data surprised to the upside yesterday, consistent with our view that inflation will rise faster than the market and ECB expect in coming months. Inflation rose to 0.1% year-over-year in from -0.1% in September, lifted mainly by higher food inflation due to surging prices for fruits and vegetables. This won't last, but base effects will push the year-over-year rate in energy prices sharply higher into the first quarter, and core inflation is climbing too. Core inflation rose to 1.1% in October from 0.9% in September, higher than the consensus forecast, 1.0%.

17 October 2017 Manufacturing Sector set for Modest Post-Hurricane Rebound? (Publication Centre)

The first October survey evidence from the industrial economy, in the form of the Empire State report, is remarkably strong.

17 Sept 2019 August IP Likely Rebounded, but the Trend is Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing is in recession, with few signs yet that a floor is near, still less a recovery.

17 October 2018 The Eurozone's Trade Surplus is Headed Down a Notch this Year (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's trade surplus rebounded slightly over the summer, rising to €16.6B in August from €12.6B in July, helped mainly by a 2.0% month-to- month jump in exports.

16 March 2018 Weak Data Suggest the MPC Won't Clearly Signal a May Hike Next Week (Publication Centre)

In order to support current market pricing, the MPC will have to be more specific about the timing of the next rate hike in the minutes of next Thursday's meeting.

17 January 2019 Rising Services Inflation Matters More than the Falling Headline Rate (Publication Centre)

The most eye-catching aspect of December's consumer prices report was the pick-up in core inflation to 1.9%, from 1.8% in November, above the no-change consensus.

17 February 2017 Slowing Real Incomes Threaten Spending (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of real personal incomes is under sustained downward pressure, slowing to 2.1% year-over-year in December from 3.4% in the year to December 2015. In January, we think real income growth will dip below 2%, thanks to the spike in the headline CPI, reported Wednesday. Our first chart shows that the 0.6% increase in the index likely will translate into a 0.5% jump in the PCE deflator, generating the first month-to-month decline in real incomes since January last year.

14 May 2019 Trade Stand-off won't Last Forever, but Expect a Few Painful Weeks (Publication Centre)

Markets are caught in a trade loop.

16 Oct 2019 Did Pre-Tariff Spending Boost September Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Tariffs are a tax on imported goods, and higher taxes depress growth, other things equal.

16 Oct 2019 Core Inflation in France is Rising, but the Devil is in the Detail (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final inflation data in France for September were misleadingly soft.

16 October 2018 Q3 Consumption Rose by Nearly 4%, Despite So September Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

The softness of the headline September retail sales numbers hid a decent 0.5% increase in the "control" measure, which is the best guide to consumers' spending on non-durable goods.

17 December 2018 Corporate Debt Service Still Falling, Three Years After the First Fed Hike (Publication Centre)

This week brings the third anniversary of the first rate hike in this cycle, on December 16, 2015.

2 October 2018 Good News for Mexico's Prospects, the USMCA will Boost Sentiment (Publication Centre)

The U.S. reached a trade agreement with Canada on Sunday, adding its northern neighbour to the pact sealed a month ago with Mexico.

20 August 2018 LatAm Markets Were Under Stress This Month, Will Sentiment Improve? (Publication Centre)

While we were away, EM growth prospects and risk appetite deteriorated, due mainly to rising geopolitical risks and Turkey's currency crisis.

13 January 2017 Will Consumers' Spending Rise in Line with the Sentiment Surveys? (Publication Centre)

December's retail sales numbers are the most important of the year for retailers, but they don't necessarily tell us anything about the future prospects for consumers' spending or the broad economy. The December 2016 numbers, however, might be different, because they capture consumers' behavior in the first full month after the election.

11 Apr. 2016 Stronger Growth and Accelerating Wages Will Shift Rate Sentiment (Publication Centre)

A reader sent us last week a series of five simple feedback loops, all of which ended with the Fed remaining "cautious". For example, in a scenario in which the dollar strengthens--perhaps because of stronger U.S. economic data--markets see an increased risk of a Chinese devaluation, which then pummels EM assets, making the Fed nervous about global growth risks to the domestic economy.

17 Dec. 2014 Sentiment Surges, but Russian Rout Forces a Reminder of 1998 (Publication Centre)

With Russia and some other emerging economies now in full panic mode, the financial market story is sharply divided between two narratives. Either the plunge in global energy prices acts as positive catalyst by boosting real incomes and allowing most central banks to run easier monetary policy or it is a sign that risk assets are about to hit a deflationary wall.

17 January 2018 Severe Weather Likely Depressed Homebuilders' Sentiment (Publication Centre)

At the end of last year, U.S. homebuilders were more optimistic than at any time in the previous 18 years, according to the monthly NAHB survey.

22 March 2018 The IFO and EZ manufacturing sentiment likely fell further in March (Publication Centre)

Today's economic calendar in the Eurozone is filled to the rafters.

7 June 2017 Sentiment Indicators Signal Better Times for the Mexican Economy (Publication Centre)

Mexico's survey data have improved significantly over the last few months, reaching levels last since before Donald Trump won the U.S. election in November. This suggest that the economy is in much better shape than feared earlier this year. Consumer confidence, for instance, has continued its recovery.

9 October 2018 Anti-Establishment Sentiment Lands a Big Win in Brazil on Sunday (Publication Centre)

Since April, the presidential elections in Brazil have dominated local discourse, prompting several market moves.

24 August. 2015 Better Economic News Fails to Lift LatAm Sentiment - Fx Still Trashed (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy continues to withstand several headwinds, especially the sharp currency depreciation--shown in our first chart--falling commodity prices, and the tough external environment. The country is still one of the economic bright spots in the region, thanks to its resilient domestic demand. June retail sales rose 5.4% year-over-year, well above expectations, and up from 4.1% in May. The underlying trend is positive, averaging 4.8% in the second quarter, well above its 2014 pace.

29 March 2017 Consumers are Happy, but Spending Will Lag Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data don't significantly change our view that first quarter GDP growth will be reported at only about 1%, but the foreign trade and consumer confidence numbers support our contention that the underlying trend in growth is rather stronger than that.

22 December 2017 Optimism in the French Corporate Sector is High and Broad-Based (Publication Centre)

Sentiment in the French business sector ended this year on a high. The headline manufacturing index fell slightly to 112 in December, from an upwardly-revised 113 in November, but the aggregate sentiment gauge edged higher to a new cycle high of 112.

23 Apr. 2015 Cyclical recovery in the Eurozone will likely moderate in Q2, slightly (Publication Centre)

The preliminary April PMIs due today will provide the first economic sentiment data for Q2, and likely will point to a continuation of the cyclical recovery. We think the composite PMI was unchanged at 54.0 in April, driven by a small gain in manufacturing offset by a slight decline in services.

22 August. 2016 Fiscal Problems Will be Exposed as Brazil's Political Mess Clears (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic performance has improved marginally in recent months, with inflation falling and economic activity and sentiment data stabilizing, or even increasing modestly. The latest regional economic activity report, for instance, showed that although overall output declined again on a sequential basis in March-to-May, three of the five regions expanded.

22 Mar. 2016 Will Economic Survey Data Step Back From the Brink this Week? (Publication Centre)

Financial markets and economic survey data have been sending a downbeat message on the Eurozone economy so far this year. The composite PMI has declined to a 12-month low, consumer sentiment has weakened, and national business surveys have also been poor.

2 May 2017 Economic Activity in Mexico Remains Strong, but Will Slow (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery has been steady in recent months, and Q1 likely will mark the end of the recession. The gradual recovery of the industrial and agricultural sectors has been the highlight, thanks to improving external demand, the lagged effect of the more competitive BRL, and the more stable political situation, which has boosted sentiment.

2 Dec. 2014 - Eurozone Manufacturing Sector Unlikely to Recover in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey continues to send a downbeat message on growth in the euro area despite signs of improvement in other sentiment data: The final manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone fell to 50.1 in November from 50.6 in October.

23 Aug 2019 Further Evidence of Resilience in the Eurozone PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's August PMI data in the euro area ran counter to the otherwise gloomy signals from the ZEW and Sentix investor sentiment indices.

21 Dec. 2015 How Vulnerable is the U.K. to a Current Account Crisis? (Publication Centre)

The latest balance of payments figures, released Wednesday, look set to show that the current account deficit widened in Q3, underlying the U.K.'s vulnerability to a sudden change in overseas investor sentiment. The risk of a full-blown sterling crisis, however, is lower than the enormous current account deficit would appear to suggest.

21 Dec. 2015 Paris Attacks Unlikely to Dent Q4 French GDP Growth Severely (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing confidence in France remained resilient in the fourth quarter. The INSEE sentiment index rose to 103 in December from 102 in November, lifted by a jump in firms' own production expectations, and a small increase in the new orders-to-inventory ratio. We think production will increase in Q4, lifted by energy output, but the recent jump in the year-over-year rate is unlikely to be sustained, even if we factor in the marginal increase in new orders this month.

23 September 2016 French Manufacturing Confidence Rebounds Solidly in September (Publication Centre)

French manufacturers recovered their optimism towards the end of Q3. The headline INSEE manufacturing sentiment index rose to 103 in September, from 101 in August, and the composite business confidence gauge also increased. A rebound in transport equipment firms' own production expectations was the key driver of the recovery.

24 January 2017 EZ Economic Data Will Struggle to Live Up to Expectations in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Consensus forecasts expect further gains in this week's key EZ business surveys, but the data will struggle to live up to expectations. The headline EZ PMIs, the IFO in Germany, and French manufacturing sentiment have increased almost uninterruptedly since August, and we think the consensus is getting ahead of itself expecting further gains. Our first chart shows that macroeconomic surprise indices in the euro area have jumped to levels which usually have been followed by mean-reversion.

24 Mar. 2016 EZ Consumers' Spending Is Slowing, but Won't Collapse (Publication Centre)

All the evidence indicates that growth in Eurozone consumers' spending is slowing. We think data today will show that the advance GfK consumer sentiment index in Germany was unchanged at 9.5 in April, but the headline index does not correlate well with spending. The "business expectations" index is better, and while it likely will increase slightly, our first chart shows that it continues to signal a slowdown in consumers' spending growth.

25 Apr. 2016 Brazil is Still Struggling, But Recent Data Are Encouraging (Publication Centre)

Financial market performance and economic survey data on the Brazilian economy have been better than many investors and commentators feared this year. The composite PMI has improved gradually since November last year, consumer sentiment has stabilized, and national business surveys have been less bleak.

24 Feb. 2016 Distress Signal from IFO Confirm Downside Risks are Increasing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey sent a clear signal that the German economy's engine is stuttering. The business climate index fell to a 14-month low of 105.7 in February from 107.3 in January, and the expectations index slumped to 98.8 from 102.3. The weakness was driven by weaker sentiment in manufacturing, which plunged at its fastest rate since November 2008.

24 Feb. 2015 Germany is Growing, But Not as Fast as Implied by the Surge in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Sentiment in Germany has improved slightly this month with the IFO business climate index rising to 106.8 from 106.7 in January, pushed higher by a small increase in the expectations index.

23 Mar. 2016 Welcome March Rebound in Eurozone Economic Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Economic sentiment data, which rebounded in March, continue to suggest slight downside risk to EZ GDP growth in Q1. The composite Eurozone PMI in March rose modestly to 53.7 from 53.0 in February, only partially erasing the weakness in recent months. The PMI dipped slightly over the quarter as a whole, although not enough to change the EZ GDP forecast in a statistically meaningful way.

19 July. 2016 EZ July Survey Data Will be Tainted by the U.K. Referendum Result (Publication Centre)

Today's ZEW investor sentiment report in Germany will kick off a busy week for Eurozone economic survey data, which likely will be tainted by the U.K. referendum result. We think the headline ZEW expectations index fell to about five in July, from 19.2 in June, below the consensus forecast, 9.2. Our forecastis based on the experience from recent "unexpected" shocks to investors' sentiment.

24 April 2018 Surveys are Stronger than Hard Data, but with no Common Cause (Publication Centre)

The levelling-off in the industrial surveys in recent months is reflected in the consumer sentiment numbers. Anything can happen in any given month, but we'd now be surprised to see sustained further gains in any of the regular monthly surveys.

23 July. 2015 Slow, but Steady, Recovery in French Manufacturing This Year (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing industry in France is recovering slowly, but surely. The headline INSEE index rose to 102 in July from 101 in June, close to a post-crisis high, pointing to steady improvement for manufacturers. Our first chart shows the main leading components of the survey, indicating a modest, but positive, trend in output. The increase in sentiment in July was driven by firming new orders--especially in the export sector--pushing the new orders-to-inventory ratio to an 18-month high.

18 Mar. 2016 Medical Costs are Accelerating, but Goods Will Lift Core PCE Too (Publication Centre)

In the excitement over the FOMC meeting--all things are relative--we ran out of space to cover some of this week's other data, notably the PPI, industrial production and housing starts. They are worth a recap, given that only the Michigan sentiment report will be released today.

12 Apr. 2016 Will Mr. Draghi Upgrade his Bazooka to a Helicopter this Year? (Publication Centre)

Two years ago markets believed that the institutional setup of the Eurozone would be a straitjacket on the ECB, preventing QE. Aggressive policy actions since then have proven this hypothesis wrong. But inflation remains low and sentiment data weakened ominously in the first quarter.

12 July. 2016 Brazil and Argentina are Both Hurting, but Healing has Begun (Publication Centre)

Brazil and Argentina, South America's biggest economies are going through a metamorphosis. Brazil is emerging from its recession and a modest recovery is on the horizon. Exports have rebounded, thanks to the lagged effect of the BRL's sharp sell-off last year, and confidence has improved significantly in recent months. The likelihood that interim President Michel Temer will stay on as head of Brazil's government has also helped to boost sentiment.

13 February 2019 Is the Collapse in the Argentinian Survey and Real Data over (Publication Centre)

We will be paying special attention to the sentiment surveys for Argentina over the coming weeks.

11 Sept 2019 Small Firms are Nervous about the Future, but no Meltdown, Yet (Publication Centre)

The August NFIB survey of activity and sentiment at small businesses was soft, but it could have been worse.

11 July 2017 Small Businesses are Still Optimistic, but a Correction is Due (Publication Centre)

Before last November's election, movements in the headline NFIB index of activity and sentiment among small businesses could be predicted quite reliably from shifts in the key labor market components, which are released in advance of the main survey.

25 Jan. 2016 PMIs Point to Stable GDP Growth, Despite Disappointing Dip (Publication Centre)

Advance PMI data indicate a slow start to the first quarter for the Eurozone economy. The composite index fell to 53.5 in January from 54.3 in December, due to weakness in both services and manufacturing. The correlation between month-to-month changes in the PMI and MSCI EU ex-UK is a decent 0.4, and we can't rule out the ide a that the horrible equity market performance has dented sentiment. The sudden swoon in markets, however, has also led to fears of an imminent recession. But it would be a major overreaction to extrapolate three weeks' worth of price action in equities to the real economy.

10 Sept 2019 NFIB Capex Plans and Selling Prices Point to Trouble Ahead (Publication Centre)

The likely dip in the headline NFIB index of small business sentiment and activity today will tell us that business owners are unhappy and nervous about the potential impact of the latest China tariffs on their sales and profits.

11 Dec. 2014 French Economy Stumbles, as Market Looks Towards 2nd TLTRO (Publication Centre)

An upbeat third quarter for GDP growth in France and slightly better sentiment data have offered at least some hope that the economy could stage a comeback into year-end. But yesterday's disappointing industrial production data poured cold water on that idea.

14 November 2018 Banxico Likely Will Hike Tomorrow Interventionist Threats are Growing (Publication Centre)

After recent interventionist moves and plans in Mexico from AMLO's incoming administration and his political party, uncertainty and soured sentiment are the name of the game.

14 September. 2016 Brazil's Soft July Retail Sales Don't Change the Improving Trend (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian consumer will continue to suffer from high interest rates and a deteriorating labour market this year. But sentiment data imply that the fundamentals are stabilising, at least at the margin. The headline consumer sentiment gauge, published by the FGV, has improved significantly in the past five months, and we expect another modest increase later this month

17 March 2017 February's Manufacturing Data Flattered by Warm Weather? (Publication Centre)

The latest survey evidence strongly supports our view that momentum is building in the industrial economy, but the official production data continue to lag. Yesterday's March Philly Fed survey was remarkably strong, with the correction in the headline sentiment index -- inevitable, after February's 33-year high -- masking increases in all the subindexes.

18 January 2018 Housing Starts Likely Dipped Last Month, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Hot on the heels of yesterday's news that the NAHB index of homebuilders' sentiment and activity dropped by two points this month -- albeit from December's 18-year high -- we expect to learn today that housing starts fell last month.

19 Dec. 2014 Further Signs of Diverging Growth Paths in Mexico And Brazil (Publication Centre)

This year has proved to be challenging for retailers in Mexico. The combination of fiscal reform, the economic slowdown over the first half of the year, and the collapse of consumer sentiment took a significant toll in the sector.

17 Feb. 2016 Brazil Consumers' Spending Fell Yet Again in Q4, but it is Stabilizing (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of Brazil consumers' spending is perhaps beginning to stabilize, though at a very low pace. Core retail sales volumes were flat in Q4 after a 2.7% contraction in Q3, and sentiment data suggest this improving trend should continue, at least in the very near term.

15 September. 2016 Will September's Regional Surveys Follow the ISM's Drop? (Publication Centre)

Today's huge wall of data will add significantly to our understanding of third quarter economic growth, with new information on consumers' spending, industrial activity, inflation and business sentiment. In light of the unexpected drop in the ISM surveys in August, we are very keen to see the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys for September.

15 Jan. 2016 Downside Risk for December Retail Sales and Industrial Output (Publication Centre)

After a very light week for economic data so far, everything changes today, with an array of reports on both activity and inflation. We expect headline weakness across the board, with downside risks to consensus for the December retail sales and industrial production numbers, and the January Empire State survey and Michigan consumer sentiment. The damage will b e done by a combination of falling oil prices, very warm weather, relative to seasonal norms, and the stock market.

15 Jan. 2016 Equity Price Drop Not Yet Big Enough to Darken Growth Outlook (Publication Centre)

The FTSE 100 fell further yesterday, briefly to levels not seen since November 2012, but its drop over recent months is not a convincing signal of impending economic disaster. The economic recovery is likely to slow further, but this will reflect the building fiscal squeeze and the sterling-related export hit much more than the wobble in market sentiment.

19 Feb. 2016 Even Spendthrift U.K. Consumers Will Have to Slow Down in 2016 (Publication Centre)

January's retail sales figures, released today, look set to indicate that consumers are keeping the recovery going, amid deteriorating business sentiment and faltering external trade.

U.S. Datanote: Consumer Confidence, June (Publication Centre)

In one line: Mexico tariff fears hit sentiment and raised inflation expectations; expect a reversal.

8 May 2017 Rocky Commodity Markets Put LatAm FX under Temporary Stress (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets have done well in recent weeks on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD. A less confrontational approach from the U.S. administration to trade policy has helped too.

8 May 2018 Brazil's Q1 Looks Poor - we Expect a Rebound Soon, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Brazil's March industrial production report, released on Thursday last week, was weaker than we and the markets were expecting, while the recent deterioration in sentiment surveys highlights the downside risks to the rather fragile economic recovery.

9 August. 2016 NFIB Survey Signals Better Non-Oil Business Capex as Soon as Q3 (Publication Centre)

The headline NFIB index of small business activity and sentiment in July likely will be little changed from June--we expect a half-point dip, while the consensus forecast is for a repeat of June's 94.5--but what we really care about is the capex intentions componen

8 July. 2015 Mexican Consumers Upbeat, as Economic Fundamentals Improve (Publication Centre)

Household sentiment in Mexico continues to improve, consistent with tailwinds from low inflation, accommodative monetary policy, and the improving labor market. The consumers confidence index rose to 94.7 in June from 92.0 in May, with four of the five components improving, especially big-ticket purchasing expectations and expectations for the economy.

7 March 2017 Mexicans' Confidence Rebounds, Partly, but the Trend is Still Poor (Publication Centre)

Mexican asset prices and sentiment have been helped in recent weeks by less-harsh rhetoric from the Trump administration. The headline consumer confidence for February, reported yesterday, rose to 75.7 from 68.5 in January; all the sub-components improved. The data are not seasonally adjusted, so most local analysts look at the data in year-over-year terms.

5 September 2017 How Much of a Headwind is a Stronger Euro for EZ Equities? (Publication Centre)

At the start of the year, consensus forecasts expected Eurozone equities to outperform their global peers this year, on the back of a strengthening cyclical recovery and an increase in earnings growth. Both of these conditions have been met, and yesterday's sentiment data suggest that EZ equity investors remain constructive.

26 August. 2015 Solid Net Trade Lifts German GDP in Q2, but Payback Likely in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The IFO did its part to alleviate the stock market gloom yesterday, with the business climate index rising slightly to 108.3 in August from 108.0 in July. The August reading doesn't reflect the panic in equities, though, and we need to wait until next month to gauge the real hit to business sentiment. The increase in the headline index was driven by businesses assessment of current output, with the key expectations index falling trivially to 102.2 from a revised 102.3 in July. This survey currently points to a stable trend in real GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, consistent with our expectation of full year growth of about 1.5%.

7 July. 2015 Cyclical Recovery is Resilient - Not Immune - To Greek Turmoil (Publication Centre)

The sell-off in bonds and equities continued yesterday, but the reaction bears no resemblance, so far, to the sovereign debt crises in 2012 and 2010. The first evidence from sentiment data in July also points to surprising stability. The headline Sentix index rose to 18.5, up slightly from 17.1 in June, but the expectations index fell marginally, to 22.3 from 22.5.

9 Dec. 2015 Chile's Imacec Consistent With Weak But Stable GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Economic activity data in Chile have been soft and uneven this year, due mainly to the hit from low commodity prices and uncertainty surrounding the reform agenda, which has badly damaged consumer and investor sentiment. The latest Imacec index, a proxy for GDP, increased just 1.7% year-over-year in October, down from the 2.7% gain in September, and below the 2.2% average seen during Q3 as a whole.

9 December 2016 Mexico's Consumers Will Face a Tough 2017 (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economic outlook has dimmed recently, a point driven home by sentiment data released last week. Still, we think GDP growth will slow only marginally in Q4, to about 11⁄2% year-over-year. Consumers' spending likely will remain strong in the near term, thanks mainly to rising remittances from the U.S., driven by fear of policy changes under the Trump administration.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 2 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs turn less grim, but look unsupported, for now. China's non-manufacturing PMI receives a one-off singles day boost. Japan's capex data suggests Q3 upgrade. Net trade is shaping up to be a drag on Q4 GDP, as Korean exports remained weak in November. Korea's exit from deflation is complete, thanks largely to more favourable base effects. Korea's PMI jumps in November... and that's before the likely sentiment boost from normalising ties with Japan.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ remains in an alternate reality in order to avoid a rate cut, underlining its concerns over damage to the financial sector. Chances of a serious PBoC blunder are rising. No "Phase 1" sentiment lift for Chinese manufacturers. A sharp fall in China's official services gauge was due. This probably is as good as it'll get for Japanese industrial production. Korean industrial production remains volatile, but the trend is decisively up.

EZ Datanote: Sentix and Retail Sales, Eurozone (Publication Centre)

In one line: A further rebound in investor sentiment, and a robust Q1 for the EZ consumer.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tankan reinforces our impression of a nasty Q2. China's manufacturing PMIs show why the authorities are eager for a trade deal. China's non-manufacturing sector holds steady for now. Korean exports disappointed in June, but this probably is as bad as it will get. Ignore Korea's volatile PMI readings... sentiment is improving gradually.

9 Nov. 2015 Inflation Still a Headache for South American Central Banks (Publication Centre)

Three of the big LatAm economies-- Brazil, Colombia and Chile--released October inflation last week; the data are still showing the pass-through effects of currency depreciation during the first half of the year into prices, though, at different degrees. LatAm currencies have been hit by the weakness in commodity prices and negative sentiment towards EM generally.

9 January 2017 The Eurozone Economy Likely Finished 2016 With a Bang (Publication Centre)

The slew of EZ economic data on Friday supports our view that the economy ended 2016. The Commission's economic sentiment index jumped to 107.8 in December from a revised 106.6 in November. The headline strength was due to a big increase in "business climate indicator" and higher consumer sentiment. In individual countries, solid numbers for German construction and French services sentiment were the stand-out details.

9 July 2019 Did the Rising China Tariffs and the Mexico Threat Scare Small Firms? (Publication Centre)

Small business sentiment and activity, as reported by the NFIB survey, has recovered exactly half the drop triggered by the rollover in stock prices in the fourth quarter. This matters, because most people work at small firms, which are responsible for the vast bulk of net job growth.

4 January 2017 December's ISM looks great, but it's not definitive (Publication Centre)

It probably would be wise to view the increase in the ISM manufacturing index in December with a degree of skepticism. The index is supposed to record only hard activity, but we can't help but wonder if some of the euphoria evident in surveys of consumers' sentiment has leaked into responses to the ISM. That said, the jump in the key new orders index-- which tends to lead the other components--looked to be overdue, relative to the strength of the import component of China's PMI.

6 Mar. 2015 A more upbeat Mr. Draghi, but QE is not challenged by better economic data (Publication Centre)

Mr. Draghi was in a slightly more bullish mood yesterday, noting that the significant easing of financial conditions in recent months and improving sentiment show that monetary policy "has worked". Economic risks are tilted to the downside, according to the president, but they have also "diminished".

27 September. 2016 Jobs Seen as Plentiful, but Payroll Gains Will Remain Low (Publication Centre)

In contrast to surveys of manufacturing activity and sentiment, the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence rose sharply in August, hitting an 11-month high. People were more upbeat about both the current state of the economy and the outlook, with the improving job market key to their optimism. The proportion of respondent believing that jobs are "plentiful" rose to 26%, the highest level in nine years.

28 April 2017 Current Account in Brazil Still Improving, But not for Long (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery has been steady in recent months, and Q1 likely will mark the end of the recession. The gradual recovery of the industrial and agricultural sectors has been the highlight, thanks to improving external demand, the lagged effect of the more competitive BRL, and the more stable political situation, which has boosted sentiment.

4 April 2018 Japan's Tankan Points to Building Inflationary Pressure (Publication Centre)

The Tankan survey--published on Monday--points to still buoyant sentiment, a further tightening of the labour market, and building inflation pressures.

27 Oct. 2015 Upbeat IFO Survey, Despite Dip in Headline Business Climate Index (Publication Centre)

Economic sentiment in the Eurozone's largest economy stayed solid at the start of the fourth quarter, despite subdued manufacturing and poor investor sentiment. The headline IFO business climate index fell slightly to 108.2 in October from 108.5 in September, due to a fall in the current assessment index. The expectations index rose, though, to 103.8 from 103.5 last month pointing to a resilient outlook for businesses and solid GDP growth in coming quarters.

27 May. 2015 After the Surge - A Positive Trend in EZ Household Consumption? (Publication Centre)

Data today will likely show that consumer sentiment in the Eurozone remains firm. In Germany, we expect a slight dip in the advance headline GFK confidence index to 9.8 in June, from an all-time high of 10.1 in May.

26 Oct. 2015 Mexico's Private Consumption is the Key Driver of the Upswing (Publication Centre)

The tumultuous political and economic crises in Brazil continue to feed off each other, grabbing most of the LatAm headlines. Sentiment will remain depressed, and volatility and uncertainty will persist, hampering any real signs of stabilization in the near-term. The Pacific Alliance countries, by contrast, managed to grow at relatively solid rates during the first half of this year, after absorbing the hit from falling commodity prices.

27 July. 2015 PMIs Point to Stable GDP Growth, but EM Rout is Hurting Germany (Publication Centre)

The July Eurozone PMI survey echoed the message from consumer sentiment earlier of a mild dip in momentum going into Q3. The composite PMI in the euro area fell to 53.7, from 54.2 in June due mainly to a fall in the services index. Companies' own expectations for future business fell in the core, but the survey was conducted soon after the Greek referendum. Markit claims this didn't depress the data, but we are on alert for revisions to the headline and expectations next week, or a rebound next month.

28 May. 2015 Italy Finally Exits Recession, But Will Remain an Underperformer (Publication Centre)

We will be paying special attention today to the EC sentiment survey for Italy, where the headline index has climbed steadily so far this year. It was unchanged at an eight-year high of 106.1 in April, and even if it fell slightly in May--we expect a dip to 105.0--it still points to an upturn in economic growth.

28 February 2017 Should the ESI's Upbeat Growth Signal be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

The E.C.'s Economic Sentiment Indicator for the U.K., released yesterday, painted an upbeat picture of the economy's recent performance. The ESI picked up to 109.4 in February from 107.1 in January; its average level since 1990 is 100. February's reading was the highest since December 2015, and it slightly exceeded the E.U.'s average of 108.9.

30 Apr. 2015 Real M1 Growth Points to Strengthening Cyclical Recovery (Publication Centre)

Survey and money supply data remain consistent with an improving Eurozone economy. Yesterday's EC sentiment index fell to 103.7 in April, from 103.9 in March, due to weakness in France and Germany, but it is consistent with GDP growth of about 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.

28 November. 2016 Household Consumption in France Will Recover Lost Ground in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The outlook for French consumers' spending improved this month, at the margin. The headline consumer sentiment index was unchanged at 98 in November, but most forward-looking indicators rose. Consumers' spending in was flat in Q2 and Q3, following a 1.1% jump in the first quarter.

4 Apr. 2016 ECB QE is Failing to Lift Equities, but Bond Yields are Being Crushed (Publication Centre)

Today's Sentix survey of Eurozone investor sentiment likely will remain downbeat. We think the headline index rose only trivially, to 6.0 in April from 5.5 in March, and that the expectations index was unchanged at 2.8. Weakness in equities due to global growth fears and negative earnings revisions likely is the key driver of below-par investor sentiment.

3 April 2019 A Decent Industrial Report in Brazil, but the Rebound Remains Subpar (Publication Centre)

Brazil's February industrial production numbers, labour market data, and sentiment indicators are gradually providing clarity on the underlying pace of activity growth, pointing to some red flags.

31 March 2017 February Consumption Will Look Grim (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the February consumer spending data, due today, will contradict the upbeat signal from confidence surveys. The dramatic upturn in sentiment since the election is consistent with a rapid surge in real consumption, but we're expecting to see unchanged real spending in February, following a startling 0.3% decline in January.

29 Oct 2019 Consumers Still Confident, but Job Growth will Slow, Testing their Faith (Publication Centre)

We aren't convinced by the idea that consumers' confidence will be depressed as a direct result of the rollover in most of the regular surveys of business sentiment and activity.

29 Apr. 2016 Brazil's Central Bank Lays The Groundwork for a Rate Cut in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's macroeconomic scenario is becoming easier to navigate for the central bank. Both actual inflation and expectations are slowing rapidly, as shown in our first chart. And since the March BCB monetary policy meeting, the BRL has appreciated about 10% against the USD, while commodity prices and EM sentiment have also improved markedly.

29 Feb. 2016 The Weaker Pound has not Transformed the Export Outlook (Publication Centre)

In theory, any hit to sentiment and business investment as the E.U. referendum nears could be offset by a better foreign trade performance, due to the Brexit-related depreciation of sterling. But not every cloud has a silver lining.

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Home-Builder Confidence Hits Near-Decade High (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson on positive data from U.S. Home-Builders

WALL STREET JOURNAL - U.S. Home-Builder Confidence Climbs in September, Industry Group Says (Media Centre)

Ian Shepherdson comments on US Home-builders data

Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson's mission is to present complex economic ideas in a clear, understandable and actionable manner to financial market professionals. He has worked in and around financial markets for more than 20 years, developing a strong sense for what is important to investors, traders, salespeople and risk managers.

Consistently Right

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