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4 July 2019 Japan's Services PMI Holds up, is the Sector Really so Resilient? (Publication Centre)

We were surprised to see Japan's services PMI edging up to 51.9 in June, from 51.7 in May. We attributed apparent service sector resilience in April and May to the abnormally long holiday this year.

4 Dec 2019 Better Times Lie Ahead for the Construction Sector (Publication Centre)

2019 is a year many in the construction sector would prefer to forget.

12 April 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Resilient in Q1, Despite External Threats (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Mexico added weight to the idea that the sector improved marginally in the first quarter, despite many external threats. Industrial output rose 0.1% month-to-month in February, following a similar gain in January. The calendar-adjusted year-over-year rate rose to -0.1%, after a modest 0.3% contraction in January.

5 Aug 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Showing Solid Signs of Gradual Stabilization (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in Brazil underscored that the Covid-related shock on the industrial sector is finally easing, as the economy gradually reopens.

6 July 2017 Chinese Service Sector Downtrend to Continue into the Second Half (Publication Centre)

China's service sector slowed again in June, with the Caixin PMI falling to 51.6 from 52.8 in May. The Q2 average of 52.0 was only minimally lower than the 52.6 in Q1.

12 November 2018 Mexico's Industrial Sector did Well in Q3, but Politics are a Threat for 2019 (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy gathered strength in Q3, due mainly to the strength of the services sector, and the rebound in manufacturing, following a long period of sluggishness, helped by the solid U.S. economy and improving domestic confidence.

7 March 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector Remains Solid, Despite Slipping in January (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector was off to a soft-looking start in Q1, but the fall in January output was chiefly payback for an especially strong end to 2017.

6 July 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is on the Mend, but Downside Threats Remain (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector is still suffering, but the pain is easing as the economy gradually reopens. That said, full recovery is a long way off, and the pandemic is still far from over, adding downside risks to the recent upbeat picture.

24 September 2018 How can the Fed Slow the Economy when the Private Sector is so Strong? (Publication Centre)

The big difference between economic cycles in developed and emerging markets is that recessions in the former tend to be driven by the unwinding of imbalances only in the private sector, usually in the wake of a tightening of monetary policy.

3 Sept 2019 Still Mostly Bad News in the Eurozone Manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final EZ manufacturing PMIs for August provided little in the way of relief for the beleaguered industrial sector.

24 May 2019 Mexican Retail Sector is Stabilizing Despite Tight Financial Conditions (Publication Centre)

Mexico's retail sector is finally improving, following a grim second half last year.

13 June 2017 Solid Mexican Manufacturing Eclipsed By Other Key Sectors (Publication Centre)

Activity in the Mexican industrial sector cooled marginally at the start of the second quarter, but the drop was not as dramatic as the headlines suggested. Output fell 4.4% year-over-year in April, after a 3.4% increase in March.

12 Nov 2019 Mexico's Industrial Sector did Well in Q3, but Leading Indicators are Grim (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial sector did relatively well in Q3, due mainly to the resilience of the manufacturing sector, and the rebound in construction and oil output, following a long period of sluggishness.

20 September 2017 Is China set to Open Further its Financial Sector to Foreigners? (Publication Centre)

Bloomberg reported on Monday that the PBoC is drafting a package of reforms to give foreign investors greater access to the China's financial services sector. This could involve allowing foreign institutions to control their local joint ventures and raising the 25% ceiling on foreign ownership of Chinese banks.

15 July 2019 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued Banxico to Cut Soon (Publication Centre)

Downbeat sectoral data and weakening consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy remains in bad shape.

22 December 2017 Optimism in the French Corporate Sector is High and Broad-Based (Publication Centre)

Sentiment in the French business sector ended this year on a high. The headline manufacturing index fell slightly to 112 in December, from an upwardly-revised 113 in November, but the aggregate sentiment gauge edged higher to a new cycle high of 112.

23 Sept 2019 Recessions Usually Require Private Sector Imbalances, they're Absent (Publication Centre)

We think of recessions usually as processes; namely, the unwinding of private sector financial imbalances.

23 October 2018 The Eurozone Auto Sector is on Sale Should Investors Bite (Publication Centre)

The automotive sector accounts for 6.1% of total employment, and 4% of GDP, in the Eurozone.

11 Mar 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector Started Q1 Strongly, but it won't Last (Publication Centre)

This has been a very complicated week for LatAm policymakers, who are particularly uneasy about the performance of the FX market.

10 Mar 2020 Oil Sector Capex is Set to Collapse, Outweighing Consumers' Gain (Publication Centre)

The collapse in oil prices was the immediate trigger for the 7.6% plunge in the S&P 500 yesterday, but the underlying reason is the Covid-19 epidemic.

1 August 2018 Mexico's Q2 GDP Dips, Due to Weakness in the Industrial Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q2 GDP in Mexico confirmed that the economy lost momentum in recent months.

1 Oct 2019 The Trouble with China's Private Sector Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs have diverged in the last couple of months.

10 Jan 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade will Improve Gradually this Year (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite the broader challenges facing LatAm and the global economy in 2019.

11 Sept 2019 Is the Industrial Sector in France Running out of Luck in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in France rebounded only modestly at the start of Q3, despite favourable base effects.

5 July 2019 Chile's Retail Sector is Stabilizing, but Policy Uncertainty Remains (Publication Centre)

The economic recovery disappointed in Chile during most of the first half of the year, despite relatively healthy fundamentals, including low interest rates, low inflation and stable financial metrics.

5 February 2019 Where is the Evidence of a Pick-up in China's Household Sector (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI ticked down to 53.6 in January, from 53.9 in December.

5 April 2017 The Construction Sector Will Continue to Tread Water (Publication Centre)

Evidence that the U.K. economy has slowed significantly this year is starting to come in thick and fast. Following the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI on Monday --which signalled that growth in production declined in March to its lowest rate since July--the construction PMI dropped to 52.2 in March, from 52.5 in February.

4 Nov 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector Improved in Q3, Colombia's Economy is Strong (Publication Centre)

Thursday and Friday were busy days for LatAm economy watchers. In Brazil, the data underscored our view that the economy is on the mend, but the recent upturn remains shaky, and external risks are still high.

5 June 2019 Don't Overlook the Construction Sector's Hidden Supports (Publication Centre)

The flow of downbeat business surveys continued yesterday, with the release of the Markit/CIPS construction survey.

5 June 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Suffering, but the Worst is Likely Over (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's industrial production report in Brazil was terrible, despite overshooting market expectations.

7 Jan 2020 The Eurozone Services Sector is Still Holding its Own (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were solid across the board.

7 February 2019 Industrial and Retail Sectors to Drive December GDP Dip (Publication Centre)

December's GDP report, released next Monday, likely will maintain the flow of negative news on the U.K. economy.

5 March 2019 Don't Write Off Construction Sector Support for GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

February's Markit/CIPS construction survey brought further evidence that the economy is being weighed down by Brexit uncertainty.

4 Feb 2020 Don't Look to the Manufacturing Sector for Growth This Year (Publication Centre)

January's Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey suggests that the outcome of the general election has brought manufacturers some momentary relief.

3 July 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Showing Early Signs of Gradual Stabilization (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in Brazil underscored the effect of weaker external conditions. This adds to the poor domestic demand picture, which has been hit by high, albeit easing, political uncertainty.

15 Sept 2020 The Manufacturing Sector is Losing Steam, but Autos have Further to go (Publication Centre)

Momentum in the rebound in economic activity has faded over the past couple months, housing and auto sales aside.

14 December 2017 Korea's Public Sector Jobs Drive Fizzles out. BoK to Hike Anyway (Publication Centre)

The Korean unemployment rate edged back up to 3.7% in November from October's 3.6%. Young graduates--the usual suspects--accounted for most of the rise.

13 Sept 2019 Brazil's Retail Sector Started Q3 Solidly will the Uptrend Continue (Publication Centre)

Brazil's outlook is still improving at the margin, as positive economic signals mix with relatively encouraging political news.

12 Feb 2020 How Much Spending will China's Retail Sector Lose this Year (Publication Centre)

In previous Monitors--see here--we've suggested that, thanks to the coronavirus, China simply will lose some of the spending that would have gone on during the holiday this year.

17 August. 2016 Oil Sector Capex is Rebounding, and Will Add to Q3 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

The most important number released yesterday was hidden well behind the headline inflation, production and housing construction data. We have been waiting to see how quickly the upturn in the number of rigs in operation would translate into rising oil and gas well-drilling, and now we know: In July, well-drilling jumped by 4.7%

17 July 2017 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Subdued, Oil is Mainly to Blame (Publication Centre)

Upbeat survey data and relatively resilient consumer spending numbers indicate that the Mexican economy is in good shape, despite a marginal slowdown in most of Q2.

29 June 2020 New Gilt Issuance Projections will Imply Rising Private Sector Holdings (Publication Centre)

Investors active in the government bond market will be awaiting today, at 07:30 BST, the publication by the Debt Management Office of its updated Financing Remit for the upcoming three months. The new Remit will show that gilt sales, net of redemptions, will be lower in Q3 than in Q2.

24 July 2018 Mexico's Services Sector Still Driving the Economic Cycle (Publication Centre)

Economic activity in Mexico during the past few months has been resilient, as external and domestic threats, particularly domestic political risks, appear to have diminished.

2 Jan 2020 China's PMIs Highlight Weakening Non-manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

China's official manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 50.2 in December, marking a weak end to the year. But it could have been worse; we had been worried that the return to above-50 territory in November had been boosted by temporary factors. December's print allays some of those fears.

11 Sept 2020 Brazil's Retail Sector Started Q3 Solidly, will the Uptrend Continue (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days have confirmed that private spending is on the mend in the biggest LatAm economies.

6 May 2020 Brazil's Industrial Sector Collapsed in March, It will Slide Further in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Efforts to contain the coronavirus outbreak severely dented industrial activity in Brazil.

23 August 2017 Fiscal Restraint, not a Surging Economy, Drove July's Surplus (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's public finance figures showed that the public sector, excluding public sector banks, ran a surplus of £0.2B in July, a modest improvement on borrowing of £0.4B a year ago.

23 October 2017 Remember Minsky Moments? And Please Give us Capital, says China (Publication Centre)

Two major themes emerged from the Chinese Party Congress last week, namely, further opening of the financial sector to foreigners, and the threat of a Minsky moment.

22 September 2016 Poor Borrowing Trend Reduces Scope for Stimulus in November (Publication Centre)

Public borrowing continues to falling at a very slow pace, despite the major fiscal consolidation implemented this year. Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks--PSNB ex.--was £10.5B in August, only 8.1% less than the £11.5B borrowed a year ago.

22 November 2017 "Spreadsheet Phil" Unlikely to Alter Austerity Formula (Publication Centre)

Public sector borrowing still is on course to greatly undershoot the March Budget forecasts this year, despite October's poor figures.

22 Nov 2019 Soft Manufacturing in France, but Robust Services and Construction (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of survey data in France suggests that business sentiment in the industrial sector remained soft mid-way through Q4, but the numbers are more uncertain than usual this month.

24 January 2018 Low Public Borrowing Reflects One-Offs, not a Reviving Economy (Publication Centre)

The main measure of public borrowing--PSNB excluding public sector banks--came in at £2.6B in December, well below the £5.1B in December 2016 and lower than in any other December since 2000.

24 January 2019 Future Fiscal Stimulus Is Still Secure, Despite Worse Borrowing Data (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the trend in public borrowing deteriorated sharply late last year. In the three months to December, borrowing on the main "PSNB ex ." measure, which excludes banks owned by the public sector, was a trivial £0.3B, or 1.6%, lower than in the same months of 2017.

25 Sept 2020 India's Agricultural Reforms are Controversial, but Deserve a Shot (Publication Centre)

India's government has been on a reform drive in recent weeks, with the agricultural sector and the labour market undergoing significant liberalisation.

25 Jan. 2016 Last Week's Data Reinforce Brazil's Doves - Rates are Now on Hold (Publication Centre)

The bad news on economic activity keeps coming for Brazil. The formal payroll employment report-- CAGED--for December was very weak, with 120K net jobs eliminated, compared to a 40K net destruction in December 2014, according to our seasonal adjustment. The severe downturn has translated into huge job losses. The economy eliminated 1.5 million jobs last year, compared to 152K gains in 2014. Last year's job destruction was the worst since the data series started in 1992. The payroll losses have been broad-based, but manufacturing has been hit very hard, with 606K jobs eliminated, followed by civil construction and services. Since the end of 2014, the crisis has hit one sector after another.

24 October. 2016 Why are Households Running Such Large Bank Balances? (Publication Centre)

The U.S. household sector carries substantial gross debts, even after the sustained deleveraging since the crash of 2008. The gross debt-to-income ratio stood at 105.3% in the second quarter of this year, down from the 135% peak in late 2007 but still well above the 88% average recorded in the 1990s, which was not a decade of restraint on the part of consumers.

24 November. 2016 EZ PMIs Rise Further in November- The Outlook is Good for Q4 GDP (Publication Centre)

The PMIs are telling an increasingly upbeat story for the EZ economy in Q4. The composite PMI in the euro area rose to an 11-month high of 54.1 in November, from 53.3 in October. The uptick was driven by strong new business growth across all private sectors, and employment also increased in response to higher work backlogs.

22 Nov 2019 Fiscal Stimulus is Coming, Whoever Wins, the MPC will Need to Act (Publication Centre)

The public finances are in better shape than October's figures suggest in isolation. Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks--PSNB ex.--leapt to £11.2B, from £8.9B a year earlier.

22 March 2017 Greece, the EU and the IMF are Sleepwalking into Crisis... Again (Publication Centre)

Another deadline has come and gone in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors. This week's meeting between EU finance ministers revealed that the creditors have not seen enough commitments unlock the €7B Greece needs to repay in July. Mr. Tsipras has agreed to energy sector privatizations, and to increase the threshold for income tax exemption.

2 July 2020 Don't Expect Manufacturing Output to Reach Pre-Covid Levels this Year (Publication Centre)

The recovery in the industrial sector from Covid-19 finally commenced in earnest in June, after May's stalled start.

2 May. 2016 ECI Core Wages Tell the Story Hidden by Calendar Quirks in AHE (Publication Centre)

For most of the decade since the whole-economy average hourly earnings numbers were first published, the year-over-year rate of increase has run faster than the ECI measure of private sector wages and salaries, excluding incentive-paid occupations. But in the first quarter of this year, the ECI measure rose 2.5% year-over-year, the fastest increase in six years, while hourly earnings rose 2.3%. That difference might not sound like much, but it matters a good deal when put into context.

19 May. 2016 EZ Construction is Recovering, but Output Likely Will Slow in Q2 (Publication Centre)

The construction sector in the Eurozone probably stumbled in March. Advance data for the major economies suggest that output fell 1.2% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 1.6% from 2.4% in February.

18 Oct 2019 Housing Investment Looks Set for a Double-Digit Q4 Jump (Publication Centre)

The declines in headline housing starts and building permits in September don't matter; both were driven by corrections in the volatile multi-family sector.

18 July 2018 Car Sales Likely Lifted EZ Durable Goods Consumption in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Momentum in the EZ auto sector rebounded at the end of the second quarter.

2 Oct 2019 Manufacturing in Meltdown Fear the Cross-Contamination (Publication Centre)

The dreadful September ISM manufacturing survey reinforces our view that the sector will be in recession for the foreseeable future, and that both business capex and exports are on the verge of a serious downturn.

20 Feb 2020 EZ Construction Output Hit a Wall in Q4, but Capex did a Bit Better (Publication Centre)

Production in the EZ construction sector slumped at the end of Q4. Data yesterday showed that output slid by 3.1% month-to-month in December, comfortably reversing the 0.7% increase in November.

22 June 2018 Survey Data Suggest that French Manufacturing will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's barrage of French business sentiment data suggest that confidence in the industrial sector was a little stronger than expected in Q2.

21 Nov 2019 The Philly Fed Looks Great, but it's a Huge Outlier and Can't be Trusted (Publication Centre)

If the only manufacturing survey you track is the Philadelphia Fed report, you could be forgiven for thinking that the sector is booming.

20 March 2017 Construction in the EZ is Doing Fine, Despite January Plunge (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone construction sector ground to a halt at the start of 2017. Data on Friday showed that output plunged 2.3% month-to-month in January, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -6.0%, from a revised +3.0% in December. The weakness was broad-based across the major economies, but it was concentrated in France and Spain where output fell by 3.5% and 3.8%, respectively.

20 July. 2016 How Fast Will Oil Capex Rebound in the Wake of Higher Oil Prices? (Publication Centre)

We have been arguing for some time that the drag on growth from falling capital spending in the oil sector would fade to nothing in the third quarter, and would then likely be followed by a small increase in the fourth quarter. But we seem to have been too cautious. It now seems much more likely that oil capex will rebound strongly as soon as the third quarter, following the clear upturn in the rig count data produced by Baker Hughes, Inc.

28 July 2020 Restaurants are Not as Full as OpenTable Data Suggest (Publication Centre)

Tracking the consumer services sector has become more important since Covid-19, as it was flattened by the lockdown in Q2 and it might prove to be an incubator of new infections, if it becomes too busy.

28 Sept 2020 How to Interpret the Sustained Rise in EZ Narrow Money (Publication Centre)

As far as liquidity goes, conditions in the EZ private sector remain conducive to a strong and sustained post Covid-19 upturn.

9 Jan 2020 Guess What, Manufacturing in Germany Remained Weak in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing sector appears to have settled into an equilibrium of sustained misery.

9 July 2020 Further Stimulus Likely will be Needed in the Autumn Budget (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor's Summer Statement contained a targeted package of measures aiming to sustain employment and support the ailing hospitality sector. In total, these measures could inject up to £30B into the economy, depending on take-up by households and firms.

9 February 2017 Is the Jump in Wholesale Inventories Sustainable? (Publication Centre)

Total real inventories rose at a $48.7B annualized rate in the fourth quarter, contributing 1.0 percentage points to headline GDP growth. Wholesale durable goods accounted for $34B of the aggregate increase, following startling 1.0% month-to-month nominal increases in both November and December. The November jump was lead by a 3.2% leap in the auto sector, but inventories rose sharply across a broad and diverse range of other durables, including lumber, professional equipment, electricals and miscellaneous.

7 December 2017 China Regulates in an Attempt to Avoid a Korea-style Credit Spiral (Publication Centre)

China last week banned unlicensed micro-lending and put a ceiling on borrowing costs for the sector, in an effort to curtail the spiralling of consumer credit.

6 May 2019 Payrolls Can't Sustain April's Pace, but Unemployment will Keep Falling (Publication Centre)

It would be astonishing if the May and June payroll numbers looked much like April's strong data, at least in the private sector.

9 March 2018 January's Production Rebound will Conceal a Manufacturing Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The industrial sector went from strength to strength in 2017. Year-over-year growth in production picked up to 2.1%--its highest rate since 2010--from 1.3% in 2016.

10 January 2017 The Core Inventory Cycle is Turning, but Q4 Data Likely Won't Show it (Publication Centre)

For some time now we have argued that collapse in capital spending in the oil sector was the source of most of the softening of activity in the manufacturing and wholesaling sectors last year.

01 Mar. 2016 Worst is Over for Manufacturers, but no Real Rebound Yet (Publication Centre)

The worst is over for manufacturers, we think. The three major forces depressing activity in the sector last year--namely, the strong dollar, the slowdown in China, and the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector--will be much less powerful this year.

04 October. 2016 Manufacturing Revival Bolsters Case for the MPC to Hold Fire (Publication Centre)

The odds of the MPC cutting interest rates again in November took another knock yesterday after further signs that the manufacturing sector is getting back on its feet quickly.

1 December. 2016 ISM Set to Show that Manufacturing is Recovering, Albeit Slowly (Publication Centre)

We have lost count of the number of times the drop in the ISM manufacturing survey, in the wake of the plunge in oil prices, was a harbinger o f recession across the whole economy. It wasn't, because the havoc wreaked in the industrial economy by the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector was contained.

1 Oct 2019 ISM Manufacturing Likely Rose a bit in September, but it Remains Weak (Publication Centre)

The obsession of markets and the media with the industrial sector means that today's ISM manufacturing survey will be scrutinized far more closely than is justified by its real importance.

6 July 2020 Private Firms in China are Finally Waking Up from their Long Coma (Publication Centre)

The private sector in China has finally joined the party, boosting the durability of the economic recovery.

6 February 2019 The Chilean Economy Eased Off in Late Q4 2019 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Chile's Imacec index confirmed that economic growth ended the year on a soft note, due mainly to weakness in the mining sector.

4 July 2018 Household Balance Sheets in the Eurozone are in Good Shape (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday showed that Momentum in the EZ retail sector stumbled through middle of Q2.

4 Sep 2020 The Recovery in Chinese Services is Very Uneven, the Punchy PMI Aside (Publication Centre)

China's services sector continues to do most of the heavy lifting for the economy's recovery this quarter, judging by the survey data.

4 January 2017 Stronger Surveys Should Not Foster Optimism about Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

A cluster of surveys suggest that the manufacturing sector finished 2016 with a flourish, after a dismal performance for most of the year. But momentum will drain away from the sector's recovery in 2017, as higher oil prices make low value-added work unprofitable again and resurgent inflation causes domestic consumer demand to crumble.

4 August 2017 China's Reform Scorecard Part 4: Effective Bad Debt Screening (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's Monitor we set out how government will have to prepare for an increase in debt issuance both to bring debts on-balance sheet and also to issue new debt as government is obliged to run deficits while the corporate sector deleverages.

3 Mar 2020 Covid-19 is Both a Supply and Demand Shock to the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that all remained calm in the EZ industrial sector through February.

5 December 2017 The PMI Signals Construction has Stabilised, but Won't Recover Soon (Publication Centre)

November's Markit/CIPS construction report brings hope that the sector no longer is contracting. The PMI increased to a five-month high of 53.1 in November from 50.8 in October, exceeding the 52-mark that in practice has separated expansion from contraction.

5 January 2018 The Plodding Economy Will Enable the MPC to Take its Time (Publication Centre)

December's Markit/CIPS surveys for the manufacturing, construction and services sectors suggest that the economy ended 2017 on a lacklustre note.

6 Dec 2019 Brazil's Recovery Continues, in Stark Contrast to Chile's-Temporary-Woes (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector is on the mend, but some of the key sub-sectors are struggling.

6 Apr 2020 Britain Won't Fare Better than the Rest of Europe in Q2 (Publication Centre)

The U.K. services sector has vanished overnight, following the introduction of tough restrictions on everyday life to stem the spread of Covid-19.

5 September 2017 Services PMI set to Show Economy Still Struggling in Q3 (Publication Centre)

August's Markit/CIPS services survey, released today, likely will show that the economy's biggest sector is continuing to slow. We think that the PMI fell to just 53.0--its lowest level since it plunged immediately after the Brexit vote--from 53.8 in July, below the consensus, 53.5.

5 July 2017 ISM Signals Continued Industrial Recovery, but not a Boom (Publication Centre)

The June ISM manufacturing index signalled clearly that the industrial recovery continues, with the headline number rising to its highest level since August 2014, propelled by rising orders and production. But the industrial economy is not booming and the upturn likely will lose a bit of momentum in the second half as the rebound in oil sector capex slows.

18 February 2019 This Will be a Long Year for Domestic Car Sales in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The EZ manufacturing data have shown signs of a rebound in the auto sector recently.

6 July 2018 June Payroll Growth Likely Slowed, a Bit, Hourly Earnings are a Wild Card (Publication Centre)

The ADP private sector employment number was a bit weaker than we expected in May, and the undershoot relative to our forecast has pulled down our model's estimate for today's official number

13 October 2017 Eurozone GDP Growth Likely Slowed in Q3, but Only Sligh tly (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector likely was the primary driver of Q3 GDP growth in the Eurozone. Data yesterday showed that industrial production rose 1.4% month-to-month in August, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 3.8%, from a revised 3.6% in July.

17 January 2017 Peru's Growth is Solid, Will Copper Prices Offer More Support in 2017? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic activity data from Peru signalled that the relatively firm business cycle continues. The monthly GDP index accelerated to 3.6% year-over-year in November, rising from 2.1% in October, but marginally below the 4.4% on average in Q3. Growth continued to be driven by mining output, including oil and gas, which rose 15% year-over- year. The opening of several new mines explains the upturn, and we expect the sector to remain key for the Peruvian economy this year.

15 March 2019 Will Brazil's Supply and Demand Divergence Continue this Year (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector keeps losing momentum, despite interest rates at record lows and improving confidence.

14 Jan 2020 Core CPI Inflation is Contained, but Risks Abound for December (Publication Centre)

Our base case is that the core CPI rose 0.2% in December, but the net risk probably is to the upside. We see scope for significant increases in sectors as diverse as used autos, apparel, healthcare, and rent, but nothing is guaranteed.

13 January 2017 The Eurozone Economy Remains Oblivious to Political Risks (Publication Centre)

The euro area economy continues to defy rising political uncertainty. Data yesterday showed that industrial production, ex-construction, in the Eurozone jumped 1.5% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 3.2% from a revised 0.8% in October. Output rose in all the major economies, but the headline was flattered by a 16.3% month-to-month leap in Ireland. This was due to a production jump in Ireland's "modern sector" which includes the country's large multinational technology sector.

17 Oct 2019 Early Signs of Stabilisation in the Eurozone Auto Sales Data (Publication Centre)

The beleaguered EZ car sector finally enjoyed some relief at the end of Q3, though base effects were the major driver of yesterday's strong headline.

17 November 2017 Commodities Tailwind Helping Andean Economies to Recover (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this week were relatively strong, but mostly driven by the primary sectors; consumption remains sluggish compared to previous standards.

17 Jan 2020 EZ Car Sales Soared in Q4, but the Output Data Still Look Awful (Publication Centre)

A strong finish to the fourth quarter spared the EZ auto sector the embarrassment of posting an outright fall in domestic sales through 2019 as a whole.

17 Jan 2020 Brazil's Black Friday Lifted Sales in November, but Less than Expected (Publication Centre)

Brazil's consumer resilience in Q3 continued to November, but retail sales undershot market expectations, suggesting that the sector is not yet accelerating and that downside risks remain.

15 March 2017 Mexican Manufacturing will do Fine in Q1, Despite Threats (Publication Centre)

The collapse in capital spending in the oil sector and poor construction spending have constrained aggregate Mexican industrial output in recent months, despite the strength of the manufacturing sector. Total production fell 0.1% year-over-year in January, though note this was a clear improvement after the 0.6% drop in December, and better than the average 0.4% contraction over the second half of 2016.

16 Dec 2019 Will the Government in France Stand Fast on its Pension Reform? (Publication Centre)

Friday's sole economic report showed that wage growth in France remained robust mid-way through the year. The non-seasonally adjusted private wage index, ex-agriculture and public sector workers, published by the Labour Ministry, rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3.

18 Aug 2020 The Devil is in the Detail in the Eurozone Construction Data (Publication Centre)

This week's EZ construction report--data released on Wednesday at 11.00 CET--will close the book on the second quarter in the euro area economy, providing further evidence that private sector activity rebounded as lockdowns were lifted.

15 July 2020 Brazil's Macro Conditions Seem to be Stabilising, Rate Cuts During H2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recession carried over into the middle of Q2, but with diminishing intensity in some economic sectors.

17 Sept 2019 Economic Activity in the Andes Remains the Silver Lining in LatAm (Publication Centre)

Colombia's July activity numbers, released on Friday, portrayed still-strong retail sales and a reviving manufacturing sector, with both indicators stronger than expected.

3 July 2019 Not All Construction Sector Indicators are Flashing Red (Publication Centre)

Don't write off the outlook for the construction sector purely on the basis of June's grim Markit/CIPS survey.

15 January 2018 Mexico's Industrial Sector Remains Unresponsive, but Q1 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

Upbeat survey data, a competitive MXN, and the strong U.S. manufacturing sector indicate that Mexican industry should be rebounding.

8 January 2018 Japan's Services Sector will Pick Up in Q1, Wage Pressure Mounts (Publication Centre)

Japan's services sector PMI last week was disappointing.

THE GUARDIAN - British service sector back in growth, according to latest data (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. Services sector

01 Feb. 2016 Mexico's Mining Sector Still a Drag, Services Doing the Work (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy lost some momentum in Q4, due mainly to weakness in industrial and agricultural activity, but this was partly offset by the strength of the services sector as consumers' spending again carried the economic recovery. Real GDP rose 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, after a 0.8% expansion in Q3, the tenth consecutive increase. Year-over-year growth dipped marginally to 2.5% from 2.6% in Q3, but the underlying trend remains stable. In 2015 as a whole the economy expanded by 2.5%, up from 2.3% in 2014.

8 Sept. 2015 The German Manufacturing Sector is Still Stuck in Neutral (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Germany had a decent start to the third quarter. Output rose 0.7% month-to-month in July, less than we and the consensus expected, but the 0.5% upward revision to the June data brings the net headline almost in line with forecasts. Rebounds of 2.8% and 3.2% month-to-month in the capital goods and construction sectors respectively were the key drivers of the gain, following similar falls in June. A 3.2% fall in consumer goods production, however, was a notable drag.

8 Apr. 2015 Slowly does it for upturn in the German manufacturing sector (Publication Centre)

German factory orders probably bounced a modest 0.3% month-to-month in February, equivalent to a 0.5% decline year-over-year. We expect private investment growth to have picked up in the first quarter, but leading indicators for the industrial sector in Germany are sending conflicting signals.

10 October 2017 China's Services Sector Losing Momentum as Consumers Flag (Publication Centre)

We wrote last month about how the Caixin services PMI appeared to be missing the deterioration in several key services subsectors.

6 September 2017 Will the Brazilian Industrial Sector Continue to Perform Strongly? (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector came roaring back at the start of Q3, following a poor end to Q2. Industrial production jumped 0.8% month-to-month in July, driving the year-over-year rate higher to 2.5%, from 0.5% in June and just 0.1% on average in Q2.

15 Apr. 2016 Once More Unto the Breach in the Troubled Italian Banking Sector (Publication Centre)

Negotiations between the Italian government and the EU on how to fix the problem of non-performing loans in the banking sector have been predictably slow. Earlier this year the government announced that it will provide a first-loss guarantee on securitised loans sold to private investors.

13 Jan. 2016 Mexico's Industrial Sector Still Slowing - Services to the Rescue? (Publication Centre)

November production data in Mexico, released Monday, showed that the industrial economy remained quite soft in the last part of last year. The collapse in capital spending in the oil sector, slowing public spending, and weaker growth in EM and the U.S. manufacturing sector have combined to hit Mexican industrial output quite hard. Total production rose just 0.1% year-over-year in November, down from an already weak 0.5% in October, and below the 1.3% average increase in Q3. Output fell 0.5% month-to-month, the biggest drop since May, reflecting broad-based weakness.

17 Feb. 2016 Behind Utility-Hit Headlines, the Industrial Sector is Growing, Jus (Publication Centre)

If the collapse in oil sector capex and the strong dollar were going to push the industrial economy into recession, it probably would have started by now

27 Mar. 2015 No Hit from Oil Sector's Troubles Yet - Gains Elsewhere Offsetting? (Publication Centre)

We argued in the Monitor yesterday that the plunge in capital spending on equipment in the oil sector could cost about 300K jobs over the course of this year. Adding in the potential hit from falling spending on structures, which likely will occur over a longer period, given the lead times in the construction process, the payroll hit this year could easily be 500K, or just over 40K per month.

11 May. 2016 Outside the Oil Sector, the NFIB Survey Points to Decent Capex (Publication Centre)

We're pretty sure our forecast of a levelling-off in capital spending in the oil sector will prove correct. Unless you think the U.S. oil business is going to disappear, capex has fallen so far already that it must now be approaching the incompressible minimum required for replacement parts and equipment needed to keep production going.

6 September 2017 Chinese Service PMI Still Stable but Glosses Over Subsector Divergence (Publication Centre)

The services sector in China is notoriously difficult to track, with the major aggregate statistics published only on a quarterly or even annual basis.

9 January 2019 Brazil's Industrial Sector Ended Q4 on a Weak Footing Can it Improve (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector is still struggling, despite recent signs of better economic and financial conditions.

2 June 2017 The Manufacturing Sector won't put the Economy Back on Track (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector's recovery has sped up since Q1, according to Markit's latest survey, but growth still looks too weak to prevent the overall economy from struggling again in Q2.

2 February 2018 The Best Days of the Manufacturing Sector's Revival Lie in the Past (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector appears to have started the new year on a weaker note. The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI dropped to 55.3 in January--its lowest level since June--from 56.2 in December.

2 September. 2016 The Manufacturing PMI Overstates the Sector's Recuperation (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the rebound in the manufacturing PMI, to 53.3 in August from 48.3 in July, directly challenges our view that the economy is set to slow sharply over the coming quarters. A close look at the survey, however, suggests that the manufacturing PMI exaggerates the extent of the sector's recovery in August.

2 June 2017 PMIs Signal a Strong Q2 for the EZ Manufacturing Sector (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final May manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the EZ industrial sector is in fine form. The PMI for the euro area was unchanged at a cyclical high of 57.0 in May, in line with the initial estimate.

13 Nov. 2015 Mexican Domestic Industrial Sectors Offset External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Mexican manufacturing data continue to offer a counterweight to strong consumers' spending and services numbers. Output in the key manufacturing sector contracted by 0.2% month-to-month in September, due mainly to severe external headwinds. But the year-over-year rate was unchanged at 3.3%, with a flat underlying trend. Total industrial output, by contrast, rose 0.4% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.7%, from an upwardly-revised 1.1% gain in August.

Markets Insider - Housing is the 'hottest part' of the US economy as homebuilder confidence hits 20-year high (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the U.S. Housing Sector

25 Nov. 2015 Privatisations Conceal Underlying Health of Public Finances (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor is likely to announce plans for additional public sector asset sales in today's Autumn Statement, to help arrest the unanticipated rise in the debt-to-GDP ratio this year. But privatisations rarely improve the underlying health of the public finances, partly because assets seldom are sold for their full value. And the Chancellor is running out of viable assets to privatise; the low-hanging, juiciest fruits have already been plucked.

Question of the Week, WC 28th Oct (Media Centre)

What do the protests mean for Chile's economy?

Question of the Week, WC 7th Oct (Media Centre)

Are there any signs of a Chinese recovery yet? Freya Beamish discusses

WALL STREET JOURNAL - ISM Service-Sector Index Eases in May (Media Centre)

Chief US economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest ISM nonmanufacturing data

BBC NEWS - UK construction sector slows down in January (Media Centre)

Chief U.K.. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. Construction

NEW YORK TIMES - Survey Indicates Slower Growth in Services Sector (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on ISM Non-Manufacturing

The Times - Shock deterioration in building sector knocks sterling (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Construction in June

The Times - Services sector enjoys Boris bounce (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. PMIs in December

BBC - UK economic growth 'stalls' as service sector slides (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. PMI data in November

TELEGRAPH - Building sector slows down and could even fall into recession (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Construction

Bloomberg - Virus Causing Permanent, Lasting Damage to Jobs: Economist Shepherdson (Media Centre)

he services sector is seeing "job losses that will not be quickly recovered," says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, as he examines the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the U.S. labor market. He speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance."

27 Feb 2020 Survey Data in France were Stable and Solid Midway through Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 scare can be split into two stages, the initial outbreak in China, concentrated in Wuhan, and the now-worrying signs that clusters are forming in other parts of the world, primarily in South Korea, the Middle East and Italy.

25 Sept 2019 Japan's September PMI Points to Strong Q3 Deterioration Thereafter (Publication Centre)

Japan's September PMI report showed some slippage, but overall, it suggests that GDP growth in Q3 was a little stronger than the 0.3% quarter- on-quarter rate in Q2.

27 Aug 2019 Mexico's Economy Underwhelmed in the First Half Will it Improve (Publication Centre)

Mexican GDP was unchanged quarter-on-quarter in Q2, according to the final report, a tenth worse than the preliminary reading.

27 Jan 2020 Mexico's IGAE Index Points to a Further Dip in GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The dovish members of Banxico's board garnered further support on Friday for prolonging the current easing monetary cycle over coming meetings.

26 September 2018 Is China Really Deleveraging, and can it Last? (Publication Centre)

After years of rapid increase, China appears finally to have stabilised its ratio of private non-financial to GDP ratio.

25 Sept 2020 Banxico will Continue to Ease, the Recession will Push Inflation Down (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers yesterday voted unanimously to cut the policy rate by 25bp to 4.25%, slowing the pace from 50bp at the previous five meetings.

27 Apr 2020 Brazil and Mexico are Failing to Respond Effectively to the Covid Hit (Publication Centre)

Economic and financial conditions have worsened substantially in Brazil in recent weeks, due mainly to Covid-19 and the sharp deterioration of the global economy.

26 November 2018 An Amber Alert Warning from the Eurozone PMIs in November (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic reports delivered more sobering news for the euro area economy.

25 Nov 2019 The PMI Data Still Signal Weaker Growth ahead in the EZ (Publication Centre)

The PMIs in the Eurozone are still warning that the economy is in much worse shape than implied by remarkably stable GDP growth so far this year.

27 Mar 2020 How to Track the Incoming Crunch in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

The EZ economy's liquidity gears were well-oiled coming into the crisis.

27 Mar 2020 India Declares War on Covid-1, an H1 Recession Looks Inevitable (Publication Centre)

India's government imposed a three-week nationwide lockdown on March 25 to combat the increasingly rapid spread of Covid-19.

25 Nov 2019 The New Flash PMIs: Plenty of Noise, not Much Signal (Publication Centre)

Investors think it more likely that the MPC will cut Bank Rate in the first half of next year, following Friday's release of the flash Markit/CIPS PMIs for November.

25 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil and Mexico is Easing, No Immediate Threats Here (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the biggest economies in the region remains close to cyclical lows, allowing central banks to ease even further over the next few months.

25 March 2019 Dark Clouds over Manufacturing in the EZ, but Services are Stable (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the key message from the Eurozone PMIs was little changed on Friday.

26 Nov 2019 Mexico's Economy is in a Mild Recession, Downside Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Mexico's final estimate of third quarter GDP, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy is still struggling in the face of domestic and external headwinds.

25 October 2017 Preliminary GDP Will Put Little Pressure on the MPC to Raise Rates (Publication Centre)

Today's preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP is the last major economic report to be released before the MPC's meeting on November 2.

25 Oct 2019 Mortgage Lending to Remain Stable, Despite the Brexit Headwinds (Publication Centre)

The mortgage market is continuing to hold up surprisingly well, given the calamitous political backdrop.

27 July 2020 Low Inflation in Brazil will Allow the Copom to Cut Rates in August (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday in Brazil and recent political events helped to open the door further to a final rate cut in August. The IPCA-15--which previews the full CPI-- rose 0.3% month-to-month in July, well below market expectations, 0.5%.

27 Mar 2020 Brace for a Double-Digit Drop in Retail Sales During the Lockdown (Publication Centre)

February's retail sales figures highlighted that consumers' spending was flagging even before the Covid-19 outbreak.

27 Jan 2020 Who are the Biggest Casualties of China's Travel Curbs (Publication Centre)

On Friday last week, the Chinese authorities suspended sales of domestic and international tours, in an effort to contain the spread of the coronavirus, which started in Wuhan.

26 May. Second Estimate of Q1 GDP to Highlight Brexit Risk Damage (Publication Centre)

This morning's second estimate of Q1 GDP likely will restate the preliminary estimate of a 0.4% quarter-on-quarter rise, confirming that the economic recovery has lost momentum since last year. Meanwhile, the new expenditure breakdown is set to show that growth remained extremely dependent on households and will bring more evidence that businesses held back from investing, ostensibly due to Brexit concerns.

26 June 2018 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply in Argentina in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that the Argentinian economy was resilient at the start of the year, but downside risks to growth have increased.

26 July 2019 Mr. Draghi Readies his Monetary Policy Bazooka for one Last Time (Publication Centre)

Markets were all over the place yesterday in response to the messages from the ECB.

26 Aug 2020 Capex is Rising, but it Won't Recover its Losses in the Foreseeable Future (Publication Centre)

After two hefty month-to-month increases, durable goods orders ex-transportation now stand only 3.9% below their January pre-Covid peak.

26 April 2018 March Trade and Durable Orders Data to Boost Q1 GDP Forecasts? (Publication Centre)

The key data today, covering March durable goods orders and international trade in goods, should both beat consensus forecasts.

26 April 2017 French Business Confidence is Solid, but Manufacturing Fell in Q1 (Publication Centre)

French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.French manufacturing confidence soared at the start of Q2. The headline INSEE index jumped to a six-year high of 108 in April, from an upwardly revised 105 in March. The headline was flattered by a big increase in the "past activity" index, but the survey's leading indicators also improved.

26 June 2019 COPOM is Ready to Cut Rates, but Only if Politicians Don't Mess Up (Publication Centre)

Politics in Brazil has been busy in recent days, with local media reporting several items of interest.

26 Aug 2020 Germany's Economy Dodged a Bullet in H1, Relatively Speaking (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed Q2 GDP report in Germany confirmed that economic output nosedived during lockdown, but also showed that the economy was resilient compared to the rest of the EZ.

26 July 2019 Mexico's Economy is Under Strain, But Falling Inflation is its Last Hope (Publication Centre)

We remain negative about the medium-term growth prospects of the Mexican economy.

26 Feb 2020 Time for a Further Downgrade of Chinese Q1 GDP (Publication Centre)

In our Webinar--see here--we laid out scenarios for Chinese GDP in Q1 and for this year.

26 Feb 2020 Global Threats will Continue to Hurt the Mexican Economy this Year (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirmed that Mexico's economy ended Q4 poorly, confounding the most hawkish Banxico Board members.

26 August. 2016 EZ Economic Bulls Checked by IFO and INSEE Business Surveys (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany was a nasty downside surprise for markets. The business climate index slipped to 106.2 in August, from 108.3 in July, well below the consensus forecast for a modest rise. In addition, the expectations index slid ominously to 100.1, from a revised 102.1 in July.

26 February 2018 Inflation in Mexico is Starting to Fall Rapidly, but Banxico will Hike in April (Publication Centre)

Mexico's inflation is finally falling, giving policymakers room for manoeuvre.

26 July 2017 Preliminary GDP to Confirm Growth Remained Sluggish in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Today's preliminary estimate of GDP likely will show that the economy continued to struggle in response to high inflation, further fiscal austerity and Brexit uncertainty.

26 February 2019 The Impending China Trade Deal will Pose Questions for the Fed (Publication Centre)

A trade deal with China is in sight. President Trump tweeted Sunday that the planned increase in tariffs on $200B of Chinese imports to 25% from 10%, due March 1, has been deferred--no date was specified-- in light of the "substantial progress" in the talks.

27 Mar 2020 Jobless Claims Crystallize the Covid Disaster, More Pain to Come (Publication Centre)

The speculation is over: 3.283 million people filed a new claim for unemployment benefits last week, nearly double the 1.7M consensus forecast, which looked much too low.

26 June 2019 Services and Construction Will Lift French Capex in Q2, and in H2 (Publication Centre)

The INSEE's manufacturing sentiment data in France are slightly confusing at the moment.

26 May 2020 More Traumatic Data in Mexico, the Recovery is Set to be Subpar (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico surprised to the upside in April, but the underlying picture has improved rapidly over recent months.

26 May 2020 High Gilt Issuance no Sweat for Investors, for the Time Being (Publication Centre)

A decade of public deficit reduction was fully reversed in April, as the coronavirus tore through the economy.

25 September 2018 Mexico's Inflation Edged Lower in mid-September Pressures are Tame (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico surprised to the downside in late Q3, supporting our core view that it will continue to fall gradually over the coming months.

26 May 2020 What are High Frequency Data telling us about the EZ Recovey (Publication Centre)

The official data lag developments in the real economy even at the best of times, but on this occasion the gap has turned into a chasm.

2 Jan 2020 Structural Strengths Suggest Recession Risks Remain Low (Publication Centre)

The 2010s were the first decade since reliable records begin--in the 1700s--in which a recession was completely avoided

26 Feb 2020 Britain Less Vulnerable than Most to a Coronavirus-led Downturn (Publication Centre)

News that the Covid-19 virus has spread to more countries frayed investors' nerves further yesterday, with the FTSE 100 eventually residing 5.3% below its Friday close.

26 May 2017 First Quarter Growth Set to be Revised up, but Data are Very Flawed (Publication Centre)

We didn't believe the first estimate of Q1 GDP growth, 0.7%, and we won't believe today's second estimate, either. The data are riddled with distortions, most notably the long-standing problem of residual seasonality, which depressed the number by about one percentage point.

2 January 2018 Bank Lending in the Eurozone Will Strengthen Further in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The economic calendar in the euro area was relatively quiet over Christmas, and broadly conformed to our expectations.

26 Mar 2020 CPI Inflation to Slide Well Below 1% in the Summer (Publication Centre)

New BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will be reaching for his letter-writing pen soon, to explain to the Chancellor why CPI inflation is more than one percentage point below the 2% target.

26 Mar 2020 China's Covid-19 Crisis Looks Worse than its GFC Hit (Publication Centre)

Q1 is not over yet, and we still await a lot of important data.

26 Mar 2020 Substantial Upside Risk for Jobless Claims, we Expect 3.5 Million (Publication Centre)

The consensus for today's first post-apocalypse jobless claims number, 1,500K, looks much too low.

26 Mar 2020 The Terrible Extent of the Covid-19 Damage is Now Emerging (Publication Centre)

Analysing the EZ sentiment data at the moment is a bit like a surveyor being called out to assess the damage on a property after a flood.

26 March 2018 Smoot and Hawley are Still Dead, Trump is not Resurrecting them... Yet (Publication Centre)

Everyone needs to take a deep breath: This is not 1930, and Smoot-Hawley all over again.

25 September 2018 The Government has 99 Problems, but the Fiscal Deficit Ain't One (Publication Centre)

August's public finances figures, released last week, were an unwelcome but manageable setback for the Chancellor.

25 September 2017 Has Sterling's Rally Now Run Its Course? (Publication Centre)

The speed of sterling's rally this month has caught us by surprise.

27 Nov 2019 Housing Market Activity will Spring Back Early Next Year (Publication Centre)

Political uncertainty is starting to dampen housing market activity again.

29 June 2017 A Single Rate Hike Would Risk a Harmful Rise in Rate Expectations (Publication Centre)

The MPC's hawks are framing the interest rate increase they want as a "withdrawal of part of the stimulus that the Committee had injected in August last year", arguing that monetary policy still would be "very supportive" if rates rose to 0.5%, from 0.25%.

29 July 2020 The Good and Bad in the Recovery of Chinese Industrial Profits (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China continued to strengthen in June, rising by 11.5% year-over-year, marking an acceleration from 6.0% in the previous month.

29 January 2019 No Trade Data Today, but You Can Assume the Trend is Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

The advance international trade data for December were due for publication today, but the report probably won't appear.

29 June 2018 Mexico's Presidential Race Nears the Finish AMLO has a Strong Lead (Publication Centre)

We are going to print two days before the July 1 presidential election in Mexico.

29 June 2020 The Mexican Economy Crumbled Even Further During the Lockdown (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday in Mexico strengthened the case for further interest rate cuts in Q3. The monthly IGAE economic indicator for April, a proxy for GDP, plunged 19.9% year-over-year, a record drop since the series started in 1993, and down from -2.3% in March.

29 March 2019 Expect Banxico to Start Easing in Q3, but Risks of Delay Remain (Publication Centre)

Banxico yesterday left its policy rate unchanged at 3%, the highest level in a decade.

29 March 2018 Net Trade Will be a Drag on Q1 GDP, but Inventories are Rocketing (Publication Centre)

If we're right with our forecast that real consumers' spending rose by just 0.1% month-to-month in February -- enough only to reverse January's decline -- then it would be reasonable to expect consumption across the first quarter as a whole to climb at a mere 1.2% annualized rate.

29 March 2017 Consumers are Happy, but Spending Will Lag Sentiment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data don't significantly change our view that first quarter GDP growth will be reported at only about 1%, but the foreign trade and consumer confidence numbers support our contention that the underlying trend in growth is rather stronger than that.

29 January 2019 External Accounts in Brazil and Mexico are no Threat, For Now (Publication Centre)

Brazil's external accounts were a relatively bright spot last year, once again.

29 Jan 2020 We Hear You Mme President, but We Still Think You're on Autopilot (Publication Centre)

Our ECB-story since Ms. Lagarde took the helm as president has been that the central bank will do as little as possible through 2020, at least in terms of shifting its major policy tools.

28 September. 2016 Narrow Money in the EZ points to Slower GDP Growth Next Year (Publication Centre)

Momentum in EZ money supply slipped marginally in September. Headline M3 growth slowed to 5.0%, from 5.1%, mainly due to a slowdown in narrow money. Overnight deposit growth slowed to 9.4%, from 9.9% in August, offsetting a slight rise in growth of currency in circulation.

28 September 2018 Mixed Signals on Industry Peak or Plateau (Publication Centre)

It seems reasonable to think that manufacturing should be doing better in the U.S. than other major economies.

28 Sept 2020 Recent Public Borrowing Data Flatter to Deceive (Publication Centre)

Recent estimates of public borrowing have undershot the OBR's expectations, superficially suggesting the Chancellor has greater-than- expected capacity to borrow even more in the winter, if Covid-19 wreaks havoc.

29 April 2019 Growth Will be Slower in Q2, but not Slow, What Will the Fed Say? (Publication Centre)

The definition of "yesbutism": Noun, meaning the practice of dismissing or seeking to diminish the importance of data on the grounds that the next iteration will tell the opposite story.

29 Aug 2019 Hong Kong It's not Just the Economy, Stupid (Publication Centre)

Concern over individual freedoms was the spark for Hong Kong's recent demonstrations and troubles, and protesters' demands continue to be political in nature.

29 Jan 2020 Fed on Hold, Awaiting Macro or Virus Developments, IOER to Rise (Publication Centre)

The Fed will do nothing to the funds rate or its balance sheet expansion program today.

29 Aug 2019 How About Slightly Stronger EZ GDP Growth in Q3 and Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply data in the Eurozone were solid across the board.

29 March 2019 German Core Inflation Slumped in March, but it will Rebound in April (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday revealed that headline inflation in Germany was unchanged in March at 1.5%, thanks mainly to higher energy inflation, which offset a dip in food inflation.

29 May 2018 GDP will Rebound in Q2, but a Real Revival will have to Wait Until 2019 (Publication Centre)

Last week's second estimate of GDP reaffirmed that quarter-on-quarter growth declined to 0.1% in Q1--the lowest rate since Q4 2012--from 0.4% in Q4.

3 April 2019 A Middle-of-the-Road Perspective on Fiscal Policy in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

It is fair to say that the economic debate on fiscal policy has shifted dramatically in the last 12-to-18 months.

3 April 2018 GDP Growth in the Eurozone is Slowing, but Not Collapsing (Publication Centre)

The economic data in the Eurozone were mixed while we were away.

3 April 2017 Expect Strength in Both the ISM and Construction Data Today (Publication Centre)

We'd be very surprised to see a material weakening in today's March ISM manufacturing survey. The regional reports released in recent weeks point to another reading in the high 50s, with a further advance from February's 57.7 a real possibility.

3 August. 2016 Fundamentals Don't Matter For The EZ's Mighty Corporate Bonds (Publication Centre)

Debt issuance by Eurozone non-financial firms is soaring, consistent with the ECB's hope that adding private debt to QE would boost supply. Our first chart shows that the three-month sum of net debt sold in the euro area jumped to a new record of €60.3B in May. A short-term decline in issuance is a good bet after the initial euphoria in firms' treasury departments.

3 Dec 2019 A Look at the Bright Side in the EZ Manufacturing PMIs (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final manufacturing PMIs confirmed that the headline index in the euro area rebounded further last month.

3 Dec 2019 Tariffs on Steel Aluminium Highlight Downside Risks for LatAm (Publication Centre)

President Trump tweeted yesterday that he wants to re-introduce tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Brazil and Argentina, after accusing these economies of intentionally devaluing their currencies, hurting the competitiveness of U.S. farmers.

3 Dec 2019 Is the Caixin Manufacturing PMI Uptrend Justified (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs put in a better performance in November, with the official gauge ticking up to 50.2 in November, from 49.3 in October, and the Caixin measure little changed, at 51.8, up from 51.7.

3 Dec 2019 Chainstore Sales for Thanksgiving Week Usually Look Good, but... (Publication Centre)

The Redbook chainstore sales survey today is likely to give the superficial impression that the peak holiday shopping season got off to a robust start last week.

3 Apr 2020 So, When Will EZ Economies Return to Normal Operation (Publication Centre)

Market-based measures of uncertainty and volatility remain elevated, but if we look beyond the headlines, two overall assumptions still inform forecasters' analysis of the economy and Covid-19.

3 Apr 2020 Markets are Stabilizing, but Incoming Data will Confirm a Deep Recession (Publication Centre)

LatAm financial and FX markets have behaved relatively well in recent sessions, thanks to the array of monetary and fiscal measures taken to counter the severe risk-off environment.

29 November 2017 Eurozone GDP Growth Will Slow Soon, Will Markets Care? (Publication Centre)

Headline money supply growth in the Eurozone has averaged 5% year-over-year since the beginning of 2015; yesterday's October data did not change that story.

29 Nov 2019 Banxico will Keep Cutting Rates, but Prudence will Prevail in the Near Term (Publication Centre)

Data released this week have confirmed that the Mexican economy is struggling and that the near-term outlook remains extremely challenging.

29 May 2019 Real M1 in is Now Telling a More Positive Story on EZ GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Headline money supply growth in the Eurozone accelerated further at the start of Q2.

29 November 2017 Signs Mount that the BoJ is Concerned About the Curve (Publication Centre)

BoJ Governor Kuroda has piqued interest with his recent comments on the "reversal rate", the rate at which easy monetary policy becomes counterproductive, due to the negative impact on financial intermediation.

29 November 2017 Stress Tests Give Banks the All-Clear but Profitability Concerns Remain (Publication Centre)

All seven of Britain's major banks passed the Bank of England's stress test this year, in the first clean sweep since the annual test began in 2014.

29 November 2018 The Jump in EZ Money Growth is Deceptive M1 was Unchanged (Publication Centre)

Money supply growth in the Eurozone quickened last month, by 0.3 percentage points to 3.9% year- over-year, but the details were less upbeat.

29 November 2017 The Profit Share in GDP is set to Fall Sharply as Wage Growth Picks up (Publication Centre)

It doesn'tt matter if third quarter GDP growth is revised up a couple of tenths in today's third estimate of the data, in line with the consensus forecast.

28 November 2017 The EZ Economy Won't Tell us What Happens Next in Equities (Publication Centre)

This year has been a story of two halves for EZ equities. The MSCI EU ex-UK jumped 11% in the first five months of 2017, but has since struggled to push higher.

28 November 2017 Chinese Profits Headline Overstates Growth. Private Firms Struggling (Publication Centre)

Chinese industrial profits growth officially edged down to 25.1% year-over-year in October, from 27.7% in September. This is still very rapid but we think the official data are overstating the true rate of growth.

27 Sept 2019 Banxico Cuts the Main Rate, and its Dovish Tone will Persist (Publication Centre)

Banxico cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.75% yesterday, as was widely expected, following August's 25bp easing.

27 October. 2016 GDP Set to Exceed the Consensus in Q3, But Underwhelm Thereafter (Publication Centre)

Today's preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP looks set to indicate that the Brexit vote has had little detrimental impact on the economy so far.

27 November 2018 In the Shale New World, Lower Oil Prices Mean Slower U.S. Growth (Publication Centre)

The last time oil prices fell sharply, from mid-2014, when WTI peaked at $107, through early 2016, when the price reached just $26, the U.S. economy slowed dramatically.

27 Sept 2019 Core PCE Inflation is Set to Breach the Target in Q1, as Tariffs Bite (Publication Centre)

All eyes today will be on the core PCE deflator for August, which we think probably rose by a solid 0.2%.

27 September 2016 The Surging IFO Points to a Resilient German Economy in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey in Germany was a big relief for markets, in light of recent soft data. The main business climate index jumped to 109.5 in September, from 106.3 in August, the biggest month-to-month increase since 2010.

27 September 2018 China's Macro Stance is Loosening is it Business as Usual (Publication Centre)

In yesterday's Monitor, we laid out how conditions last year were conducive to Chinese deleveraging, and how the debt ratio fell for the first time since the financial crisis.

27 September 2017 Venezuela's Economic Woes Continue, and the Clock is Ticking (Publication Centre)

Venezuelan bond markets have been on a rollercoaster ride this year, with yields rising significantly in response to heightened political uncertainty and then declining when the government pays its obligations or when protests ease.

27 September 2017 A Stable and Solid Outlook for Private Investment in France (Publication Centre)

French business sentiment cooled marginally at the end of Q3. The headline manufacturing confidence index dipped to 110 in September, from 111 in August, though the overall business sentiment gauge was unchanged at 110.

27 November 2017 Economic Growth Set to Rise Next Year, but Pain Will Follow in 2019 (Publication Centre)

We have argued for some time that the revival in nonoil capex represents clear upside risk for GDP growth next year, but it's now time to make this our base case.

27 Nov 2019 The Brazilian Real Weakens Further, Despite Improving Fundamentals (Publication Centre)

The BRL remains under severe stress, despite renewed signals of a sustained economic recovery and strengthening expectations that the end of the monetary easing cycle is near.

27 March 2019 All Set for a Rebound in German Consumption Growth in H1 (Publication Centre)

German retail and consumer sentiment data for March have been mixed this week, but broadly support our call that growth in consumption should pick up soon.

27 March 2017 Eurozone PMI Data are Sizzling, but can they be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance Eurozone PMI reports capped a fine quarter for the survey. The composite PMI jumped to a 80-month high of 56.7 in March, from 56.1 in February, rising to a cyclical high over Q1 as a whole.

27 Mar 2020 Pre-Virus Q1 Data in Brazil and Mexico Supported More Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus pandemic looks set to spread rapidly throughout LatAm.

2 Dec 2019 The Effects of the Protests are Starting to Show up in Chile's Data (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies had a bad November, due to global trade war concerns, the USD rebound and domestic factors.

27 May 2020 Is it Time for Germany to Lead the Eurozone Economy Again (Publication Centre)

This week's detailed Q1 GDP data confirmed that the German economy is in dire straits, alongside its euro area peers, but there's a silver lining.

25 March 2019 Argentina's Economic Recession is Easing, but Political Risk is a Drag (Publication Centre)

Argentina's Q4 GDP report, released last week, underscored the severity of the recession, due to the currency crisis and the subsequent tighter fiscal and monetary policies.

27 May 2020 Low Inflation in Brazil, A Surprising Upward Revision to Mexico's GDP (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Brazil support our base case that the IPCA inflation rate will remain relatively stable over the coming months, hovering around 2%.

27 September 2018 Fed Confirms December Rate Hike (Publication Centre)

The Fed is on course to hike again in December, with 12 of the 16 FOMC forecasters expecting rates to end the year 25bp higher than the current 2-to-21⁄4%; back in June, just eight expected four or more hikes for the year.

28 August 2018 Germany's Economy is Resilient in the Face of External Risks (Publication Centre)

Friday's detailed GDP data in Germany confirm that the euro area's largest economy performed strongly in the second quarter.

28 June 2019 Banxico Dials Down its Hawkish Rhetoric, it Will Have to Ease Soon (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers voted to leave the main rate on hold at 8.25% yesterday, as inflation remains high--though falling--and the economy is stuttering.

28 June 2018 Services Data to Highlight Downside Risk to the MPC's GDP Forecast (Publication Centre)

The MPC will be looking for the Q1 national accounts and April's index of services data, both released on Friday, to support its view that the economy hasn't lost momentum this year.

28 June 2017 Mexico's Trade Balance Stalled in May, but Trend Remains Positive (Publication Centre)

The upturn in Mexico's trade balance in recent months stalled in May, but the underlying trend is still improving. Data yesterday showed that the seasonally adjusted deficit rose to USD700M in May, after a USD15M gap in April. Imports rose 2.9% month-to-month, offsetting a mere 0.7% increase in exports.

28 March 2018 Is Wage Growth About to Reach a Turning Point? (Publication Centre)

Wage growth will be crucial in determining how quickly the MPC raises interest rates this year. So far, it hasn't recovered meaningfully.

28 May 2019 Raising the Alarm on German Private Investment in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

We covered the detailed German Q1 GDP report in Friday's Monitor--see here--but the investment data could do with closer inspection. The headline numbers looked great.

28 Nov 2019 The Case for Larger PBoC Cuts Grows as Chinese Profits Tank (Publication Centre)

China's abysmal industrial profits data for October underscore why the chances of less- timid monetary easing are rising rapidly.

28 May 2020 Unconventional Activity Indicators Still Recovering, Across the Board (Publication Centre)

Unconventional indicators of economic activity suggest that the recovery from the Covid-19 shock is gathering momentum.

28 May 2019 The Trade War: What we Know, What we Believe, and What we Don't Know (Publication Centre)

The trade war with China is a macroeconomic event, whose implications for economic growth and inflation can be estimated and measured using straightforward standard macroeconomic tools and data.

28 June 2017 Chinese Profits Growth to Decelerate, That's a Good Thing (Publication Centre)

Chinese industrial profits growth rose to 16.7% year-on-year in May, from 14.0% in April. But this headline is highly misleading. Profits growth data are about as cyclical as they come so taking one point in the year and looking back 12 months is very arbitrary. Moreover, the data are very volatile over short periods.

28 July 2020 Mexico's Volatile Trade Balance, Consequences of Chile's Reform (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Mexico highlighted the volatility in international trade resulting from the pandemic.

28 Jan 2020 Containment Measures Could Mean a Quarterly Fall in Chinese GDP (Publication Centre)

As the situation with the coronavirus develops, and we gain more information on the authorities' response, it's becoming clear that the damage to Q1 GDP is going to be nasty.

28 Feb 2020 Upside Risk for Mexican Retail Sales, but Total Consumption is What Matters (Publication Centre)

Retail sales in Mexico fell in Q4, but we think households' spending will continue to contribute to GDP growth in the first quarter, at the margin.

28 Feb 2020 The Fed Can't Stand by as Markets Melt, Expect Easing at Any Time (Publication Centre)

The Fed will soon have to step in to try to put a firebreak in the stock market.

28 Jan 2020 Germany Can't Catch a Break, The IFO Still Signals Very Slow Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO data reversed the good vibes sent by last week's upbeat German PMIs.

28 Jan 2020 Mexican Consumers' Spending Fell in Q4, but Should Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

All the evidence indicates that growth in Mexican consumers' spending is slowing, despite the better- than-expected November retail sales numbers, released yesterday.

28 January 2019 Policy and Markets Will Slow the Economy, but not Much (Publication Centre)

The end of the government shutdown--for three weeks, at least-- means that the data backlog will start to clear this week.

28 January 2019 Inflation Remains Benign in Mexico, Despite Temporary Shocks (Publication Centre)

Mexican economic data was surprisingly benign last week.

2 February 2018 A Solid Finish to 2017 for Brazil, Pointing to Upside Risks (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production and labour reports, released this week, confirmed that the recovery remained solidly on track at the end of last year.

2 July 2018 Chile's Solid Domestic Demand Will Help Against External Jitters (Publication Centre)

Mexico's election results are not available as we go to press, but we're expecting a comfortable win for the left-wing populist candidate, AMLO.

22 January 2018 December's Dive in Retail Sales Points to Poor Q4 GDP Prospects (Publication Centre)

The intensity of the pressure on households' finances was highlighted last week by December's retail sales report, which showed that volumes fell by 1.5% month-to-month, the most since June 2016.

20 Apr. 2016 Capex Growth Will Mean-Revert As the Drop in Oil Spending Ends (Publication Centre)

As we're writing, the price of U.S. crude oil is only about 50 cents per barrel lower than on Thursday, when markets began to anticipate an OPEC deal to cut production over the weekend. The failure of the Doha talks generated an initial sharp drop in oil prices, but the damage now is very limited, as our first chart shows.

22 Jan 2020 Resilient Labour Market will Make the Doves Pause for Thought (Publication Centre)

November's labour market report provided timely reassurance, after last week's downside data surprises, that the economy did not grind to a halt at the end of last year.

22 July 2019 Still Ample Scope for Fiscal Stimulus, Despite Higher Borrowing in June (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the latest public finance data suggest that the economy has lost momentum.

22 July 2020 Argentina's Economic Recovery is Underway, but it's a Very Slow Start (Publication Centre)

Economic activity is rebounding in LatAm, but the recovery will be slow and uneven.

22 July 2020 Rising Covid-19 Cases Suggest the Reopening Has Gone too Far (Publication Centre)

Complacency and wishful thinking seem to be creeping back into the government's approach to containing Covid-19.

2 Sept 2019 Argentina in Selective Default, and Things can get Even Worse, Soon (Publication Centre)

Argentina's economic and financial situation has deteriorated significantly in recent weeks and the outlook is becoming increasingly bleak.

20 Apr. Wage Growth is Picking Up, Pressuring the MPC to Act (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures likely will show that wage growth is bouncing back from a soft patch in late 2015. As a result, the MPC won't be able to sit on its hands much longer, especially in light of the continued dire news on productivity.

22 Jan 2020 Decent Consumption Can't Stop Mexican Unemployment Rising (Publication Centre)

High interest rates and inflation, coupled with increasing uncertainty, put Mexican consumption under strain last year.

22 Aug 2019 The Fed's July Differences of Opinion Won't Prevent a September Easing (Publication Centre)

It would be easy to characterize the Fed as quite split at the July meeting.

20 Dec 2019 French Business Sentiment Shows no Hit from Strikes in December (Publication Centre)

The INSEE business sentiment data in France continue to tell a story of a robust economy.

20 Dec 2019 Next Stop for the BoJ, Increase Flexibility of the Framework (Publication Centre)

The BoJ held firm, for the most part, during this year's bout of central bank dovishness.

22 December 2017 The Public Finances are on Track This Year, but New Challenges Loom (Publication Centre)

The Chancellor can go on his Christmas vacation content that the public finances have weathered the economy's slowdown relatively well this year.

22 February 2017 The MXN Probably is Undervalued, but it Could Move Even Lower in Q2 (Publication Centre)

With the MXN up more than 7% since the low of 21.9 against the dollar in January, investors are pondering just how high the Mexican currency can go. We believe that the MXN will continue to hover around its recent range, 20.1-to-20.5, in the near term, but will come under pressure again as protectionist policies in the U.S. take real shape in the spring or summer.

22 February 2019 This Month's PMI Headline: Weak Manufacturing, Strong Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's February PMI data sent a clear message to markets.

20 Dec 2019 Banxico to Deliver Further Rate Cuts, Argentina's Recession Ends, Briefly (Publication Centre)

Banxico cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.25% yesterday, as was widely expected, following similar moves in August, September and November.

22 June 2020 We're Still not Very Excited by the ECB's TLTROs, but €1.3T is a Lot (Publication Centre)

Last week's enormous €1.3T take-up in the ECB's first post-virus TLTRO auction was hardly a blip for financial markets, consistent with the reactions to previous auctions.

22 March 2018 Wage Growth Still Lacks Momentum, Giving the MPC Time (Publication Centre)

Slack in the labour market no longer is being absorbed and wage growth still is struggling for momentum, placing little pressure on the MPC to rush the next rate rise.

23 Aug 2019 Further Evidence of Resilience in the Eurozone PMI Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's August PMI data in the euro area ran counter to the otherwise gloomy signals from the ZEW and Sentix investor sentiment indices.

2 Sep 2020 Unlock 4.0 in India can only do so Much to Repair the Severe Hit in Q2 (Publication Centre)

India's GDP shrank by 23.9% year-over-year in the second quarter, following growth of 3.1% in Q1.

23 April 2019 Brazil's Economy will Improve, but Rising Political Risk Remains a Drag (Publication Centre)

The economic data in Brazil were poor while we were away.

23 Aug 2019 Japan's Services PMI Spike Points to a Punchy Q3... Before Q4 Payback (Publication Centre)

Japan's flash PMI numbers for August were a mixed bag.

23 August 2017 All Systems Go for Italy's Economy, but Don't ask About the Long Run (Publication Centre)

The performance of Italy's economy in the first half of 2017 proves that the strengthening euro area recovery is a tide lifting all the r egion's boats.

23 February 2017 Fiscal Easing Could Boost Growth Substantially, but not for Long (Publication Centre)

The White House budget proposals, which Roll Call says will be released in limited form on March 14, will include forecasts of sustained real GDP growth in a 3-to-3.5% range, according to an array of recent press reports.

23 August. 2016 Mexico Struggled at the end of the First Half - Will it Rebound? (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy shrank by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, according to the final GDP report, a tenth better than the preliminary reading. The year-over-year rate rose marginally to 2.5% from 2.4% in Q1. But the year-over-year data are not seasonally adjusted, understating the slowdown in the first half of the year, as shown in our first chart.

23 Apr 2020 India's Sudden Stop Plain to See in Trade, Longer Lockdown to Kill Q2 (Publication Centre)

India's trade data for March highlight the immediate severity of the country's sudden nationwide lockdown.

22 Sept 2020 What's a Plausible Path for GDP If Businesses Have to Close Again? (Publication Centre)

Our long-standing forecast for GDP to be about 5% below its pre-Covid level at the end of this year assumes that the government will not need to impose new nationwide restrictions on businesses.

22 May 2019 Sino-U.S. Negotiations are a Key Risk to Andean External Accounts (Publication Centre)

Data released on Monday showed that Chile's external accounts remained under pressure at the start of the year, and trade tensions mean that it will be harder to finance the gap.

22 May 2018 The Quiet and Good life in Spain (Publication Centre)

The Spanish economy has been living a quiet life recently, amid markets' focus on political risks in Italy and manufacturing slowdowns in Germany and France.

22 May 2018 Maduro Wins Bogus Presidential Election, what will Happen Next? (Publication Centre)

President Nicolás Maduro has "won' another six-year term, as expected, even as millions of Venezuelans boycotted the election.

22 November 2017 What's the Case for Increased Fiscal Stimulus in the Eurozone? (Publication Centre)

The euro area's record-high external surplus has prompted commentators to suggest that the zone has room to loosen fiscal policy to support growth, or at least relax the deficit reduction rules.

22 November 2018 Next Year's Fiscal Stimulus Is Secure, Despite the Poorer Borrowing Data (Publication Centre)

October's surprise jump in public borrowing is not a material setback for the Chancellor, who will stick to his new Budget plans for modest fiscal stimulus next year.

22 Sept 2020 Encouraging Signs that LatAm is Recovering from the Covid Shock (Publication Centre)

Our forecast for LatAm envisions a gradual pickup in growth, following a terrible first half.

22 Oct 2019 Even if the PM Prevails Today, a No- Confidence Vote Could Force a Delay (Publication Centre)

Sterling briefly touched $1.30 yesterday, in response to signs that a very small majority in the Commons stands ready to vote for an unamended version of the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB-- on Tuesday.

20 December 2016 The IFO Points to a Strong Finish for the German Economy to 2016 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey capped a fine Q4 for German business survey data. The headline business climate index climbed to a 34-month high of 111.0 in December, from 110.4 in November. An increase in the "current assessment" index was the main driver of the gain, while the expectations index rose only trivially.

20 December 2018 A Rate Cut Would Enhance Efficacy of the PBoC's new Lending Facility (Publication Centre)

The PBoC late on Wednesday announced measures to provide medium-term funding for smaller businesses.

20 September 2018 August's Jump in CPI Inflation is More Noise than Signal (Publication Centre)

August's consumer price figures caught everyone by surprise. CPI inflation increased to 2.7%, from 2.4% in July, greatly exceeding the consensus and the MPC's forecast, 2.4%.

20 July 2020 What would it Mean for LatAm if Biden Wins the U.S. Election? (Publication Centre)

In about 100 days, the LatAm economy and financial markets will face a defining moment in the face of uncertainty, namely, the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

20 Sept 2019 The Case for Expecting Higher Inflation Next Year is Strong (Publication Centre)

Our forecast of significantly higher core inflation over the next year has been met, it would be fair to say, with a degree of skepticism.

20 September 2018 The EU Won't be Tariffed, at Least Not This Year (Publication Centre)

Mr. Trump fired the shot everyone was expecting this week with a 10% tariff on $200B-worth of Chinese goods, and a pledge to lift the rate to 25% on January 1.

21 Aug 2019 Resilient Domestic Demand in the Andes, Despite Global Tensions (Publication Centre)

The Andean economies haven't been immune to the turmoil roiling the global economy in the past few weeks.

21 Feb 2020 A Bad Weather Hit to February's Composite PMI (Publication Centre)

We expect the flash reading of Markit's composite PMI, released today, to print at 52.4 in February, below the consensus, 52.8, and January's final reading, 53.3, albeit still in line with last month's flash.

20 February 2019 The EZ's Current Account Surplus Should Increase, a Bit, in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone's external accounts were extremely volatile at the end of Q4.

20 Sept 2019 Next BoJ Meeting is Live it's About Cost-Minimisation, not Expansion (Publication Centre)

The big question left by the BoJ at yesterday's meeting is how, if at all, they will follow up in October.

20 Nov 2019 Which Leading Indicator of Core Goods Inflation Should be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators are giving conflicting signals regarding the outlook for core goods CPI inflation.

20 March 2019 More Noise than Signal in the Monthly EZ Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Construction in the EZ stumbled at the start of the year.

20 March 2017 The BCCh Leaves Open a Tiny Space for Further Easing (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank cut the policy rate 25bp last week to 3.0%, in line with consensus, amid easing inflationary pressures. The timing of the rate cut was no surprise; in January, the BCCh cut rates for the first time in more than two years, and kept a dovish bias.

20 Mar 2020 The Fed is Now Intervening Across the Board, Almost, Good (Publication Centre)

The Fed's announcement, at 11.30pm Wednesday, that it will establish a Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility--MMLF--to support prime money market funds, is another step to limit the emerging credit crunch triggered by the virus.

20 May 2020 Coronavirus Delivers a Tough Blow to Argentina's Struggling Economy (Publication Centre)

Hard data released in Argentina over the last month showed that the economy was struggling in early Q1, even before the Covid-19 hit.

20 May 2020 Two Session Signals will be Blurred, QE is Coming but to no Fanfare (Publication Centre)

The annual National People's Congress meeting of China's legislature will get underway at the end of this week, after delay due to the Covid outbreak.

20 Nov 2019 Indian Inflation Smashes Through the RBI's Target, Setting Up a Pause (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation in India jumped to 4.6% in October, from 4.0% in September, marking a 16-month high and blasting through the RBI's target.

20 May 2020 Wages to Fall Outright as Labour Market Slack Accumulates (Publication Centre)

We hope never to see another labour market report as bad as yesterday's, though the omens aren't good.

21 February 2017 Fiscal Policy Won't Be Eased, Even If January's Surplus is Huge (Publication Centre)

January's public finance data, released today, take on particular importance because they are the last to be published before the Chancellor delivers his first Budget on March 8. The public finances nearly always swing into surplus in January, primarily because the deadline for individuals to submit self-assessment--SA--tax returns for the previous fiscal year is at the end of the month. Firms also pay their third of four payments of corporation tax for their profits in the current fiscal year.

21 February 2018 Argentina's Inflation Remains Too High,but it Will Start to Fall in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Argentina's latest hard data suggest that activity is softening, but we don't see the start of a renewed downtrend.

21 Nov 2019 Will the End of the Local Authority Borrowing Binge Hit Capex? (Publication Centre)

Borrowing by local authorities from the Public Works Loan Board, used to finance capital projects-- and arguably dubious commercial property acquisitions--has surged this year.

21 May 2019 Chile's Economy Struggled in Q1, and the Near-Term Outlook is Poor (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q1 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy weakened sharply at the beginning of the year, due mainly to temporary shocks, including adverse weather conditions.

21 March 2019 Upside Risks to our China 2019 GDP Growth Forecast (Publication Centre)

For countries with developed non-banking funding channels, narrow money isn't necessarily a good predictor of GDP growth.

21 November 2018 A More Data-Dependent Fed is Still not off the Labor Market Hook (Publication Centre)

Expectations for a March rate hike have dipped since Fed Vice-Chair Clarida's CNBC interview last Friday.

20 Feb 2020 Domestically-Generated Inflation Will Rise Further, Ruling Out a Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate by June fell to 34%, from 38%, after the release of January's consumer price figures, though investors still see around an 80% chance of a cut by the end of this year.

22 Apr 2020 Negative Oil Prices and Covid-19 are a Nightmare for LatAm (Publication Centre)

Mexican policymakers held an emergency meeting yesterday in the wake of DM easing, global fiscal stimulus, plunging oil prices, and the pandemic crisis, slashing interest rates to their lower level since early 2017.

21 Oct 2019 No Lasting Relief for the Economy, if the New Brexit Deal Eventually Passes (Publication Centre)

The government now has a 50:50 chance of getting the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament in the coming weeks, despite Letwin's successful amendment and the extension request.

21 March 2018 Lower CPI Inflation in February Should Give the MPC Doubts (Publication Centre)

February's consumer price figures give the MPC reason to doubt the case for raising interest rates again as soon as May.

21 July 2017 Venezuela's Economic and Political Crisis Deteriorates, Risks is Soaring (Publication Centre)

The risk of political change in Venezuela is coming to a boil, following President Maduro's plans for a new constituent assembly that has the power to rewrite the constitution and scrap the existing National Assembly.

20 Feb 2020 What China's Doing about the Labour Market & Bankruptcy Threat (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's State Council meeting implies that the authorities are starting to take more serious coordinated fiscal measures to counter the virus threat to the labour market and to banks.

21 February 2019 Will the Real Story in French Services Please Stand Up (Publication Centre)

Today's data dump will deliver the advance PMIs and the French INSEE business sentiment indices for February, all of which will be examined closely for signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that EZ growth is slowing quicker than markets and the ECB have been expecting.

21 Jan 2020 Colombia's Private Consumption Slowed in Q4, Will it Stabilize Soon? (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday confirmed that Colombian activity lost momentum in Q4, following an impressive performance in late Q2 and Q3. Retail sales rose 4.4% in November, down from 7.4% in October and 8.3% in Q3.

21 Jan 2020 The Drop in Job Openings is Old News, Hard Data are Outperforming (Publication Centre)

Just as we turned more positive on the labor market, following three straight months of payroll gains outstripping the message from an array of surveys, the Labor Department's JOLTS report shows that the number of job openings plunged in November.

21 January 2019 Colombia's Private Spending Did Well in Q4, 2019 Will Be Solid (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday confirmed that Colombian activity remained strong in Q4.

21 Jan 2020 The PBoC Probably Wants to see Lower Rates, Despite Stable LPR (Publication Centre)

China's Loan Prime Rate was unchanged this month, at 4.15%, with consensus once again expecting a reduction to 4.10%.

23 Jan 2020 Korea's Scorching Q4 GDP will be Downgraded, but the Recovery is On (Publication Centre)

GDP growth in Korea surprised to the upside in the fourth quarter, with the economy expanding by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, three times as fast as in Q3, and the biggest increase in nine quarters.

23 Jan 2020 Leading Indicators are being Hit by the Trade War: Ignore, for Now (Publication Centre)

The Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators appears to signal that the U.S. economy is plunging headlong into recession.

24 September 2018 Battle Lines are Drawn Between the EU and U.K. over Brexit (Publication Centre)

EU negotiations tend to go down to the wire; and last week's summit in Salzburg, and Theresa May's statement on Friday, suggest that the Brexit negotiations will do just that.

24 Sept 2019 Ugly EZ PMIs in September, but Don't Hit the Panic Button Yet (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data were an open goal for those with a bearish outlook on the euro area economy.

2 July 2019 The Sino-U.S. Trade Truce is Good News for LatAm, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

The truce in trade relations between the U.S. and China, agreed at the G20, is good news for LatAm, at least for now.

25 April 2018 A Warning From the IFO (Publication Centre)

The April IFO business sentiment survey increased the degree of uncertainty over the German economy, following stabilisation in the PMIs earlier this week.

25 April 2018 Low Public Borrowing is Not a Sign the Economy is Reviving (Publication Centre)

Public borrowing has continued to fall more rapidly than anticipated in the latest official plans.

25 Aug 2020 Covid Cases are Easing in Mexico Supporting a Soft Economic Upturn (Publication Centre)

New Covid-19 cases in Mexico have continued to fall steadily over this month, with deaths peaking two weeks ago, as shown in our first chart.

25 April 2019 Still Scope for Neutral Fiscal Policy in 2020, Despite March Hiccup (Publication Centre)

The run of better-than-expected public borrowing figures ended abruptly with the publication of March data yesterday.

24 Oct 2019 Which Fork in the Road Will the PM Take? (Publication Centre)

The PM now is at a fork in the road and will have to decide in the coming days whether to risk all and seek a general election, or restart the process of trying to get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--through parliament.

24 June 2020 Don't Fixate on the PMI Remaining Below 50, GDP is Rebounding (Publication Centre)

Both business surveys and unconventional activity indicators suggest that the recovery from the Covid-19 shock has sped up in June, after a shaky start in May.

24 January 2018 Brazil's Inflation is Still Falling, Assisting BCB Policymakers (Publication Centre)

Brazilian inflation rate remained well under control at the start of this year, and we think the news will continue to be favorable for most of this year.

3 Feb 2020 Chile to Perform Relatively Well this Year, the Protest Shock will Ease (Publication Centre)

Chile's stronger-than-expected industrial production report for December, and less-ugly-than- feared retail sales numbers, confirmed that the hit from the Q4 social unrest on economic activity is disappearing.

24 Jan 2020 How Soon will the Chancellor Use his Ample Fiscal Headroom? (Publication Centre)

The public finances are in better health than appeared to be the case a few months ago.

24 January 2018 Government Bonds Can Cope With an End to QE. Can C orporates? (Publication Centre)

Bond markets didn't panic when the ECB announced its intention further to reduce the pace of QE this year, to €30B per month from €60B in 2017.

2 July 2020 A Few Silver Linings in Japan's Otherwise Grim Q2 Tankan Survey (Publication Centre)

Japan's Tankan survey for Q2 was unsurprisingly grim, given the devastation caused by the near- global lockdown in the first half of the quarter, and the nationwide state of emergency that enveloped April and May.

24 June 2019 Further Evidence of Stabilisation in EZ Growth from the PMIs (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance PMI data for the Eurozone added further evidence of stabilisation in the economy after the sharp slowdown in GDP growth since the beginning of last year.

24 July 2020 Inflation in Mexico Rose in July, but the Recession will Ease Pressures (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Mexico surprised to the upside in early Q3, but we still believe it will fall gradually in Q4.

25 August 2017 Trade and Investment are Failing to Offset the Consumption Slowdown (Publication Centre)

The second estimate of GDP left the estimate of quarter-on-quarter growth unrevised at 0.3%, a trivial improvement on Q1's 0.2% gain.

25 August 2017 Yellen to Talk on Financial Stability, But Might Refer to Policy too (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole today, at 10:00 Eastern. Her topic is billed as "financial stability", but that does not necessarily preclude remarks on the outlook for the economy and policy.

25 July 2019 Grim Manufacturing Data Confirm Investors' Priors in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Broadly speaking, yesterday's headline EZ survey data recounted the same story they've told all year; namely that manufacturing is suffering amid resilience in services.

25 July 2018 The PMIs are Probably Telling the True Story on the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first batch of Q3 survey data in the Eurozone suggest that economic growth eased further, albeit it slightly, at the start of the quarter.

25 July 2017 The July PMIs Provide a Dose of Reality on the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMIs kicked off a busy week for Eurozone data on a downbeat note. The composite EZ PMI fell to a five-month low of 55.8 in July, from 56.3 in June; it was constrained by a 0.6 point dip in the manufacturing index to 56.8.

25 June 2019 A New Fall in Mexican Services is Setting the Stage for a Poor Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday in Mexico strengthened the case for interest rate cuts this year.

25 Mar 2020 EZ Recession Confirmed, but how Long will the Slump Last (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's March PMIs confirmed that governments' actions to contain the Covid-19 outbreak dealt a hammer blow to the economy at the end of Q1.

25 Mar 2020 Surveys Confirm the Services Meltdown, Industry Better, for Now (Publication Centre)

The huge drop in the March Markit services PMI, reported yesterday, and the modest dip in the manufacturing index, are the first national business survey data to capture the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak.

25 Mar 2020 GDP Likely is Falling Much Faster than Even the Gloomy PMIs Imply (Publication Centre)

Even the record-breaking slump in Markit's composite PMI probably understates the hit to economic activity from Covid-19 and the emergency measures to slow its spread.

25 January 2019 The ECB Admits it Might not be Able to Raise Rates in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The ECB made no major policy changes yesterday.

25 January 2018 The MPC Needn't Rush the Next Rate Hike to Keep Wages in Check (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market data brought further signs that wage growth is recovering from its early 2017 dip.

25 Feb 2020 EZ Markets are Now Seriously Worried about Coronavirus (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a watershed moment for investors.

20 June 2019 A Slowdown in Construction Will Weigh on EZ GDP Growth in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data added further evidence that GDP growth in the EZ will slow in Q2.

25 Feb 2020 Don't Expect the BoK to Jump the Gun with Counter-Virus Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea is likely to keep its benchmark base rate unchanged, at 1.25%, at its meeting this week.

2 January 2018 The Economy Won't Spring Back to Life in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The economy slowed less than we expected in 2017.

25 Feb. 2016 Huge Upside Risk for Durable Orders as Aircraft Sales Rebound (Publication Centre)

Today's headline durable goods orders number for January is likely to blast through the consensus forecast, +2.7%. We expect a 6.5% jump, comfortably reversing December's 5.0% drop.

25 January 2017 The Fiscal Plans Won't Be Softened, Despite December's Better Figures (Publication Centre)

December's public finance figures suggest that borrowing is on track to come in a bit below the forecasts set out in the Autumn Statement in November. But we caution against expecting the Chancellor to unveil a material reduction in the scale of the fiscal consolidation set to hit the economy in his Budget on 8th March.

25 February 2019 The IFO is still Bleak, but the German GDP Data are Nuanced (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in Germany left markets with a confused picture of the Eurozone's largest economy.

24 Feb 2020 The PMIs are Lost in Translation, Here is What You Need to Know (Publication Centre)

Friday's PMIs were supposed to provide the first reliable piece of evidence of the coronavirus on euro area businesses, but they didn't. Instead, they left economists dazed, confused and scrambling for a suitable narrative.

2 Mar 2020 Japan's Labour Data in Disarray, Early Signs of Virus Worries? (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour data threw another January curve ball this year--last year it was wages--with a change in the standards for job openings.

23 Mar 2020 Brace for an Unprecedented Slump in the Composite PMI (Publication Centre)

The drop in the flash composite PMI in March will be one for the record books, unfortunately. We look for an unprecedented drop to 43.0, from 53.3 in February, which would undershoot the 45.0 consensus and signal clearly that a deep recession is underway.

23 Mar 2020 We're Updating our Forecasts, Take them With a Pinch of Salt (Publication Centre)

Economists' forecasts are changing almost as quickly as market prices these days, and not for the better.

23 Mar 2020 The Growth of European Covid-19 Cases Slowed Sharply Yesterday (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of new coronavirus infections across Europe slowed yesterday, in some cases quite markedly. We can quibble about the reliability of the data in individual countries, given variations in testing regimes, but the picture is strikingly uniform.

23 Mar. 2016 Rousseff's Government is on the Ropes - Fiscal Progress Will Slow (Publication Centre)

Political turmoil in Brazil continues to undermine President Dilma Rousseff's leverage over the economy. On Friday, the Lower House of Congress voted to start impeachment proceeding against Ms. Rousseff. She has until early April to present her defense against charges that she doctored government accounts and used graft proceeds to fund the 2014 electoral campaign.

23 March 2018 PBoC Bides its Time on Rates, but Macroprudential Tightening is on (Publication Centre)

The PBoC hiked its 7-day reverse repo rate by 5bp yesterday, stating that the move was a response to the latest Fed hike.

23 May 2018 The Fiscal Squeeze can be Paused Soon, Unshackling the Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's public finance figures brought more good news for the Chancellor.

23 May 2018 Chinese Capex Growth will Flounder this Year as PPI Inflation Slows (Publication Centre)

China's capex growth faces renewed challenges this year, as PPI inflation slows.

23 Mar 2020 Japan's Threat to Global Financial Markets in this Massive Real Shock (Publication Centre)

The Covid-19 shock to the real economy in China, and now the world, is colossal. Asia is leading the downturn, both because the outbreak started in China, but also because of its place in the supply chain.

23 June 2020 The Treasury has Cash on Hand to Cut VAT, but Should Focus Elsewhere (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak looks set to announce more fiscal stimulus next month to reinforce the economic recovery, despite recent record levels of public borrowing.

23 January 2018 Plunging Oil Output Points to Below-Consensus Q4 GDP (Publication Centre)

We see considerable downside risk to the consensus forecast that GDP increased by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4, the same as in Q3.

23 Jan 2020 The ECB Will Stick to its Guns Today, Negative Rates Work (Publication Centre)

Barring a meteor strike, the ECB will leave its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged today, at 0.00% and -0.5% respectively.

23 Jan 2020 The CBI's Survey is Another Positive Sign for the PMI, at the Margin (Publication Centre)

Further evidence that the general election has transformed business confidence emerged yesterday, in the form of January's CBI Industrial Trends survey.

2 Sep 2020 Soft August CPI Data will Push the ECB to Lift the PEPP This Month (Publication Centre)

Yesterday was a busy day in the EZ

23 January 2018 Unemployment in Mexico Close to Cyclical Lows, Despite Rising Risks (Publication Centre)

High inflation and interest rates, coupled with increasing uncertainty, both economic and political, put Mexican consumption under strain last year.

23 June 2020 Last Week's "Black Friday" in Colombia will Boost Covid Cases (Publication Centre)

Recent data in Colombia have confirmed that virus containment measures caused much bigger declines in activity in early Q2 than initially expected.

23 January 2019 Unemployment in Mexico Ended Q4 Badly Uncertainty is Biting (Publication Centre)

We expect the Mexican economy to continue growing close to 2% year-over-year in 2019, driven mainly by consumption, but constrained by weak investment, due to prolonged uncertainty related to trade.

2 Sep 2020 Downside for Risk for ADP if the August Data Follow Homebase (Publication Centre)

We're expecting the first look at August employment, in the form of today's ADP report, to fall short of the 1,000K consensus forecast; we look for 500K.

23 May. 2016 Will Profit Margins in Germany be Squeezed by Higher Wages? (Publication Centre)

Margins for German manufacturing firms remained depressed at the start of the second quarter. The headline PPI rose 0.1% month-to-month in April, pushing the year-over-year rate down marginally to -3.1% from a revised -3.0% in March. Falling energy prices are the key driver of the overall decline in the PPI.

2 Mar 2020 Covid-19 Cases Accelerating Outside the Four Major Outbreaks (Publication Centre)

The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.

2 Mar 2020 Cyclical Improvement in Brazil's Unemployment, but Threats Rising (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the downward trend in Brazil's unemployment continued into this year. The unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 11.2% in January, slightly below the consensus, and down from 12.0% in January last year.

23 Sept 2019 The Key Takeaways from Rapidly Falling PPI Inflation in Germany (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that German producer price inflation is now in free-fall.

23 Sept 2020 The V-Shaped Recovery Died in Early Summer, Now, it's a Slog, at Best (Publication Centre)

We triggered a bit of pushback on social media yesterday when we suggested that Larry Kudlow's familiarity with the alphabet is questionable.

24 Aug 2020 The EZ August PMIs were Poor, but they weren't Catastrophic (Publication Centre)

We are currently operating with a very simply rule-of- thumb for interpreting the PMIs.

24 Feb 2020 PMIs Point to Above-Trend Growth, Despite Virus and Weather Headwinds (Publication Centre)

The flash readings of the Markit/CIPS surveys in February provide reassurance that GDP is on track to rebound in Q1, despite disruption to the global economy caused by the COVID-19 outbreak and bad weather in the U.K. this month.

24 Aug 2020 Weak Growth and Low Inflation in LatAm, Central Banks on Hold (Publication Centre)

While we were on holiday, the data confirmed that economies have been badly hit by the pandemic in Q2, and that the upturn will be gradual.

2 March 2018 Brazil GDP Ended 2017 Softly, but the Recovery Will Accelerate in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's GDP growth slowed to just 0.1% quarter- on-quarter in Q4, from an upwardly-revised 0.2% in Q3. This pushed the year-over-year rate up to 2.1%, from 1.4%, but this was weaker than market expectations.

2 Oct 2019 Hard Data Suggest the Recovery in Brazil and Chile is on Track (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial production rose 0.8% month- to-month in August, well above our call, and the consensus, for a trivial increase.

23 October 2017 The Fiscal Squeeze won't be Eased, Despite this Year's Low Borrowing (Publication Centre)

At the halfway mark of the fiscal year, public borrowing has been significantly lower than the OBR forecast in the March Budget.

23 Oct 2019 Take the PM's Threat of a General Election Seriously (Publication Centre)

As we write, the Commons appears to be on the verge of voting for the Withdrawal Agreement Bill--WAB--at its second reading but then voting against the government's "Programme Motion", which sets out a very tight timetable for its passage through parliament, in a bid to meet the October 31 deadline and to minimise parliamentary scrutiny.

2 Sep 2020 Brazil's Q2 GDP Plunges, but Q3 Numbers will Be Strong-Looking (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy fell into recession over the first half of the year due to the severity of the Covid shock on domestic demand.

23 October 2018 Business Surveys have Flattened Richmond Fed due to Correct (Publication Centre)

All the regional PMIs and Fed business surveys are volatile in the short-term, so observations for single months need to be viewed with due skepticism.

2 October 2018 U.S. Manufacturing Outperforms as the Global Cycle Peaks (Publication Centre)

The inevitable--more or less--correction from August's 14-year high is no big deal.

23 October 2018 China's Retail Sales Show that Tax Reductions were Badly Needed (Publication Centre)

China's September activity data, released at the end of last week, back up our claim that GDP growth weakened in Q3, on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

25 Mar 2020 The Covid Hit is Starting to Show in the Hard Data for Mexico and Brazil (Publication Centre)

LatAm governments and central banks have been busy implementing additional measures to contain the spread of the virus, and acting rapidly to ease the effect on the economy.

30 Sept 2019 Brazil's Labour Market Recovery Is Gathering Pace Q4 will Be Better (Publication Centre)

Economic data released last week underscored that Brazil's economic recovery is continuing; the effect of recent bold rate cuts and improving domestic fundamentals will further support the gradual recovery of the labour market.

6 March 2018 Andean Economies are Improving, but Protectionist Threats Are a Risk (Publication Centre)

Chile's IMACEC economic activity index rose 3.9% year-over-year in January, up from 2.6% in December, and 2.9% on average in Q4, thanks to strong mining output growth and solid commercial, manufacturing and services activity.

6 Mar 2020 The Near-Term Fiscal Boost from the Budget Will Be Modest (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak faces a tough first gig on Wednesday, when he delivers the long-awaited Budget.

6 Mar 2020 Job Gains Likely Slowed Last Month, but the Covid-19 Hit is Still to Come (Publication Centre)

We think today's February payroll number will be reported at about 140K, undershooting the 175K consensus.

6 March 2018 Inventories Rebounding in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The wide spread in first quarter GDP growth "trackers"--which at this point are more model and assumption than actual data--is indicative of the uncertainty surrounding the international trade and inventory components.

6 March 2018 Why China will Miss its GDP Growth, Fiscal Deficit and RMB targets (Publication Centre)

China's National People's Congress yesterday laid out its main goals for this year, on the first day of its annual meeting.

6 May 2020 Timely Indicators Show the Economy is Adapting to the Lockdown (Publication Centre)

Emerging evidence suggests that the economy has passed the period of peak Covid-19 pain.

6 May 2020 ADP Today Likely will Understate the Hit to April Payrolls (Publication Centre)

Today's April ADP employment report likely will understate the scale of the net payroll losses which will be reported Friday by the BLS.

6 Mar 2020 Brazil's Economic Recovery to Continue, if Covid-19 Allows it (Publication Centre)

Data released on Wednesday, along with the BCB's press release on Tuesday, supported our longstanding forecast of further rate cuts in Brazil in the very near term.

6 Mar 2020 Bad to Worse for Korea's Q1, but MERS Shows Rebound Potential (Publication Centre)

The rapid escalation of Covid-19 cases in Korea in recent weeks has broadened the likely damage to the economy this quarter.

6 June 2017 The Spanish Economy is Punching Above its Weight. Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final May PMI data in the Eurozone confirmed the strength of the cyclical upturn. The composite PMI was unchanged at 56.8, in line with the initial estimate.

6 June 2017 May Services PMI Dents Second Quarter Rebound Hopes (Publication Centre)

The fall in the services PMI to 53.8 in May, from 55.8 in April, is a setback for hopes that the slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 will be fleeting. Both business activity and orders rose at their slowest rates since February.

9 June 2020 Assessing the Magnitude of April's Collapse in GDP (Publication Centre)

April's GDP report probably will be the worst any of us will see in our lifetime.

6 June 2018. The Caixin PMI Belies the Struggle in Finance and Real Estate (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the Caixin services PMI was unremarkable in May, unchanged at 52.9.

6 June 2019 Will Mr. Draghi Push Back Against Expectations for a Q4 Rate Cut (Publication Centre)

The key aspects of the ECB's policy stance will remain unchanged at today's meeting.

6 June 2019 The PMIs Still Aren't Weak Enough to Justify Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, markets' newfound view that the MPC's next move is more likely to be a rate cut than a hike was supported by May's Markit/CIPS PMIs.

6 Nov 2019 A Lukewarm Response from Firms to the New Brexit Deal (Publication Centre)

October's Markit/CIPS services survey suggests that the PM's new Brexit deal has had a lukewarm reception from firms.

6 Nov 2019 Minutes Confirm COPOM's Cautious Tone, Mexico's Inflation to Fall Ahead (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's minutes of the October 31 COPOM meeting, at which the Central Bank cut the Selic rate unanimously by 50bp at 5.00%, reaffirmed the committee's post-meeting communiqué, which signalled that rates will be cut by the "same magnitude" in December.

7 Feb 2020 Are U.K. Equities Still Trading at a Big Brexit-related Discount? (Publication Centre)

The rally in U.K. equities immediately after the general election has done little to reverse the prolonged period of underperformance relative to overseas markets since the E.U. referendum in June 2016.

7 Feb 2020 A Weak Economy Could Challenge COPOM's View that Easing is Over (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian central bank cut the benchmark Selic interest rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, on Wednesday night, as expected.

7 Aug 2020 What to Make of the June Jump in German Factory Orders (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing rebounded powerfully at the end of the second quarter, accelerating from an initially modest rebound when lockdowns were lifted.

7 Feb 2020 Coronavirus Could be near-$100B Hit to Chinese GDP in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Nobody knows the damage China's virus- containment efforts will have on GDP, and we probably never will, for sure, given the opacity of the statistics.

7 Feb 2020 December's Crash in German Factory Orders is an Outlier (Publication Centre)

Our hope for a year-end jump in German factory orders was laughably optimistic.

9 June 2017 The ECB's World: Accelerating GDP Growth and Lower Inflation (Publication Centre)

The headline changes in yesterday's ECB policy announcement were largely as expected. The central bank left its main refinancing and deposit rates unchanged at 0.00% and -0.4% respectively, and maintained the pace of QE at €60B per month. The central bank also delivered the two expected changes to its introductory statement. The reference to "lower levels" was removed from the forward guidance on rates, signalling that the ECB does not expect that rates will be lowered anytime soon.

7 Jan 2020 Chile's Economic Upturn Stuttered in Q4, Risks to Growth are Stabilizing (Publication Centre)

Chile's near-term economic outlook is still negative, but clouds have been gradually dispersing since late Q4, due mostly to better news on the global trade front, China's improving economic prospects, and rising copper prices.

7 Aug 2020 Brazil Likely will Keep Rates on Hold, as Long as the Economy Recovers (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- COPOM--met expectations on Wednesday, voting unanimously to cut the Selic rate by 25bp to 2.00%.

7 Aug 2020 A Modest Rise in Payrolls Look Likely, but Big Risks in Both Directions (Publication Centre)

The final Monitor before our summer break is characterized by great uncertainty.

6 Nov 2019 Some Preliminary Thoughts on EZ Fiscal Policy Next Year (Publication Centre)

Judging by interactions with readers in the past few weeks, fiscal policy is one of the most important topics for EZ investors as we move into the final stretch of the year.

6 Nov 2019 PBoC Wades in with a... 5bp MLF cut, it's Nowhere Near Enough (Publication Centre)

The PBoC finally moved yesterday, cutting its one-year MLF rate by 5bp to 3.25%, whilst replacing around RMB 400B of maturing loans.

6 November 2017 Payrolls Restored, Expect a Dramatic Labor Market Tightening Next Year (Publication Centre)

The 351K net increase in payrolls reported Friday--a 261K October gain and a 90K total revision to August and September--puts the labor market back on track after the hurricanes temporarily hit the data.

6 Sept 2019 Ugly Factory Orders Data to Kick off Q3 for German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing slid at the start of Q3.

7 April 2017 Mexico Sentiment is on the Mend as U.S. Threats are Easing, for Now (Publication Centre)

Sentiment has been improving gradually in Mexico in recent weeks, reversing some of the severe deterioration immediately after the U.S. presidential election. Year-to-date, the MXN has risen 10.3% against the USD and the stock market is up by almost 8%. We think that less protectionist U.S. trade policy rhetoric than expected immediately after the election explains the turnaround.

7 Apr. The Fiscal Squeeze on Household Incomes Just Got Tougher (Publication Centre)

The new fiscal year began on April 6, marking the post-election intensification of the fiscal squeeze for many households. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates net tax and benefit changes will subtract 1.2 percentage points from year-over-year growth in households' disposable incomes in 2016.

6 July. 2016 The EZ Economy is at the Mercy of Rising Political Uncertainty (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data point to a sea of calm in the Eurozone economy. The composite PMI was unchanged at 53.1 in June, a slight upward revision from the initial estimate, 52.8. The index suggests real GDP growth was stable at 1.5%-to-1.6% year-overyear in Q2, though the quarter-on-quarter rate likely slowed markedly, following the jump in Q1.

6 July 2020 The EZ PMIs are Still Improving, but that Doesn't Tell us Much (Publication Centre)

Friday's final June PMI data confirmed the survey's recovery through Q2. The composite index edged higher to 48.5, from 31.9 in May, extending its rebound from a low of just 13.6 in April.

6 Aug 2020 ADP Signals Only a Modest Rise in July Payrolls, August will be Weaker (Publication Centre)

Our hopes of another solid increase in payrolls in July were severely dented by yesterday's ADP report, showing that private payrolls rose only 167K in July.

6 Aug 2019 How Credible are China's Threats in Response to Trade War Escalation? (Publication Centre)

We've always said that China's first weapon, should the trade war escalate, is to do nothing and allow the RMB to depreciate.

6 April 2018 Expect a Correction in Payrolls, but the Trend is Still Very Strong (Publication Centre)

Your correspondent is on the slopes this week, but the employment report deserves a preview nonetheless.

6 Aug 2020 Strong EZ PMIs and Retail Sales Overstate the Economy's Strength (Publication Centre)

Judging solely by yesterday's PMI and retail sales data, the EZ economy has shaken off the virus and is going from strength to strength.

6 Aug 2020 The Recovery will Decelerate Sharply in the Autumn (Publication Centre)

A range of indicators show that the pace of the economic recovery shifted up a gear in July, when all shops were open for the entire month, and most consumer services providers finally were permitted to reopen.

6 August 2018 Don't Worry About July's Payroll Numbers, Trend is Still 200K-plus (Publication Centre)

We are not worried, at all, by the slowdown in headline payroll growth to 157K in July from an upwardly-revised 248K in June.

6 August 2018 China's PMIs Point to a Loss of Momentum in Q3 (Publication Centre)

China's PMIs point to softening activity in Q3. The Caixin services PMI fell to 52.8 in July, from 53.9 in June.

6 Apr 2020 The Eurozone PMIs are Breaking Records, and Not for the Better (Publication Centre)

Friday's final PMI data for March were even more terrifying than the advance numbers. The composite index in the euro area collapsed to 29.7, from 51.6 in February, lower than the consensus 31.4. A downward revision was coming.

5 September 2017 BanRep's Hawks want Proof the Coming In ation Jump is Noise (Publication Centre)

Colombia's Central Bank is about to face a short-term dilemma. The recent fall in inflation will be interrupted while economic growth, particularly private spending, will struggle to build momentum over the second half.

5 May 2020 Core Inflation is Set to Fall, but not Every Component will Drop (Publication Centre)

We're very comfortable with the idea that the coronavirus is a broad deflationary shock to the U.S. economy.

5 May 2020 Chile Shows First Signs of the Covid-19 Hit, More Pain to Come (Publication Centre)

The recent March economic activity reports for Chile have been terrible, showing the first signs of the Covid-19 shock, and worse is to come.

5 Nov 2019 Chilean Private Demand will Slow in Q4, Rising Exports will Ease the Pain (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions are deteriorating rapidly in Chile, despite the relatively decent Imacec reading for Q3.

5 Nov 2019 China Faces a Mix of Spiking CPI Inflation and Ongoing PPI Deflation (Publication Centre)

China is facing a nasty mix of spiking CPI inflation and ongoing PPI deflation.

5 November 2018 The Labour Market in the Andes is Struggling, Can it Improve in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Chile's unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 7.1% in July-to-September, from 7.3% in June-to-August, but it was up from 6.7% in September last year.

5 November 2018 China's Role in Global Rates over the Next 10 Years (Publication Centre)

In recent months we've been thinking more deeply about the themes for the next economic cycle for China, and its impact on the world.

6 Dec 2019 Abenomics 2.0 this is not, 2020 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply (Publication Centre)

We have consistently flagged the likelihood that Japan's government would boost spending after the consumption tax hike was implemented.

9 Mar 2020 January GDP to Highlight Pre- Virus Momentum in Growth (Publication Centre)

January's GDP report, released on Wednesday, was set to be one of the most important data releases of this year, due to its role in providing the first official steer on the economy's post-election performance.

6 Jan 2020 China's Hukou Reforms, Useful but no Substitute for Looser Money (Publication Centre)

Late last year, China said it would scrap residency restrictions for cities with populations less than three million, while the rules for those of three-to-five million will be relaxed.

6 February 2019 Japan will be Hard Pressed to Maintain Above-Trend Growth in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The Nikkei services PMI for Japan partly rebounded in January, to 51.6, after it fell sharply to 51.0 in December.

9 Mar 2020 More Good News in the EZ, which Doesn't Mean Anything (Publication Centre)

Leave it to an economist to tell contradictory stories; German manufacturing orders, at the start of the year, rose at their fastest pace since 2014, but it doesn't mean anything.

6 Jan 2020 Markets in Defensive Crouch, Awaiting Iran's Response (Publication Centre)

It's hard to overstate the geopolitical importance of Friday's assassination of Qassim Soleimani, architect of Iran's external military activity for more than 20 years and perhaps the most powerful man in the country, after the Supreme Leader.

6 Jan 2020 The Mexican Economy will Resume Growth, but Modestly (Publication Centre)

The economic calendar in Mexico was relatively quiet over Christmas, and broadly conformed to our expectations of poor economic activity in Q4.

6 July 2018 Finally, a Bit of Good News in German Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing rebounded strongly midway through the second quarter.

9 Mar 2020 Global Virus Cases Accelerating, but China and Korea Show it's Beatable (Publication Centre)

A third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks is now underway. The first, in China, is now under control, and the rate of increase of cases in South Korea has dropped sharply. The other second wave countries, Italy and Iran, are still struggling.

6 Feb 2020 The PMIs Point to Stronger GDP Growth in Q1 than the MPC Expects (Publication Centre)

The post-election run of upbeat business surveys was extended yesterday, with the release of the final Markit/CIPS services PMI for January.

6 Feb 2020 Productivity Growth is Set to Slow After Last Year's Nine-Year High (Publication Centre)

Productivity likely rose by 1.7% last year, the best performance since 2010.

6 Dec 2019 Only Limited Upside for Sterling in the Event of a Tory Election Win (Publication Centre)

For sterling traders, no election news is good news.

9 Mar 2020 The Covid-19 Hit Likely will Allow LatAm Banks to Cut Rates Soon (Publication Centre)

The Fed's 50bp rate cut last week, aiming to shield the U.S. economy against Covid-19, has opened the door for some central banks in LatAm to emulate the move.

6 December 2017 Low Rates Will Continue to Spur the Industrial Recovery in Brazil (Publication Centre)

Brazilian data strengthened early in Q4, supporting the case for the COPOM to slow the pace of rate cuts. We expect the SELIC policy rate to be lowered by 50bp today, to 7.0%.

6 December 2017 Manufacturing Productivity Rises in China at the Expense of Services (Publication Centre)

China's Caixin services PMI picked up further in November to 51.9 from October's 51.2, but the rebound is merely a correction to the overshoot in September, when the headline dropped sharply.

6 December 2018 November's Services PMI Bolsters our Below-Consensus Q4 GDP Call (Publication Centre)

The slump in the Markit/CIPS services PMI in November to its lowest level since July 2016 provides the clearest indication yet that uncertainty about Brexit has driven the economy virtually to a stand-still.

6 December 2018 No Real Signs of the Slowdown Story in the Labor Market Data (Publication Centre)

Behind all the talk of slowdowns and Fed pauses, we see no sign that the labor market is loosening beyond a very modest uptick in jobless claims, and even that looks suspicious.

7 Jan 2020 Chinese CPI Inflation won't Budge Much on U.S.-Iran Tensions (Publication Centre)

Our chief economist, Ian Shepherdson, set out our initial thoughts on the rising tensions between U.S. and Iran here.

9 July 2020 China's Q2 GDP Bounce was Solid, but Expect a Print Shy of Consensus (Publication Centre)

China's GDP report for the second quarter is due a week from today, and the prevailing wisdom is that the bounce-back was strong enough for headline growth to return to the black.

8 June 2020 Will the MPC Swap Its QE Machine Gun for a Bazooka? (Publication Centre)

So far, the MPC has been more timid with unconventional stimulus than other central banks. At the end of May, central bank reserves equalled 29.7% of four-quarter rolling GDP in the U.K., compared to 32.7% in the U.S. and 46.7% in the Eurozone.

8 June 2020 Mexico's Survey Data are on the Mend, but a Full Recovery is Distant (Publication Centre)

Economic conditions remain challenging in Mexico, despite a modest improvement in leading indicators. The usual surveys currently are not well-suited to capture the economy's upturn from the Covid-19 collapse.

8 June 2020 Germany is on Track to Shrug Off Covid-19 in Relative Style (Publication Centre)

Friday's manufacturing data in Germany weren't pretty, but fortunately, the report is old news. Factory orders crashed by 25.8% month-to-month in April, extending the slide from a revised 15.4% fall in March.

8 March 2017 Could a Bad Payroll Report for February Really Stop the Fed? (Publication Centre)

With the FOMC decision now just seven days away, the forcefulness of recent Fed speakers has led many analysts to argue that only a spectacularly bad payroll report, or an external shock, can prevent a rate hike next week. External shocks are unpredictable, by definition, and we think the chance of a startlingly terrible employment report is low, though substantial sampling error does occasionally throw the numbers off-track.

8 May 2018 Brazil's Q1 Looks Poor - we Expect a Rebound Soon, but Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Brazil's March industrial production report, released on Thursday last week, was weaker than we and the markets were expecting, while the recent deterioration in sentiment surveys highlights the downside risks to the rather fragile economic recovery.

8 Nov 2019 Don't Expect the MPC to Maintain its Dovish Bias Next Year (Publication Centre)

Investors now see a 50/50 chance of the MPC cutting Bank Rate within the next nine months, following the slightly dovish minutes of the MPC's meeting, and its new forecasts.

8 May 2019 Chile's Economy Slowed in Q1, but Expect a Modest Q2 Rebound (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Chile slowed in Q1, despite a relatively strong end to the quarter, and the chances of an accelerating recovery remains disappointingly low, due to both global and domestic headwinds.

8 July 2020 German Manufacturing Remained Tepid in May, was June Better (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's manufacturing data in Germany followed the lead from Monday's relatively underwhelming new orders report; see here.

8 July 2019 Slump in German Manufacturing isn't Over Yet...Far From It (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing data remain terrible. Friday's factory orders report showed that new orders plunged 2.2% month-to-month in May, convincingly cancelling out the 1.1% cumulative increase in March and April.

8 Jan 2020 Improving External Conditions Add to Colombia's Economic Resilience (Publication Centre)

Colombia was the fastest growing LatAm economy in 2019, due mostly to strong domestic demand, offsetting a sharp fall in key exports.

8 Jan 2020 Higher Oil Prices won't Stop the Economy Recovering this Year (Publication Centre)

The $10 increase in the price of Brent crude oil over the last three months to $68 is an unhelpful, but manageable, drag on the U.K. economy's growth prospects this year.

8 Jan 2020 Is this as Good as it Gets for the RMB from a Trade Deal Perspective (Publication Centre)

The trade war with the U.S. has taken its toll on the RMB.

8 January 2019 A Story for Everyone in Confusing Q4 German Manufacturing Data (Publication Centre)

The German economy's engine room continues to stutter.

8 July 2019 Incomplete Rebound in GDP in May to Confirm Stagnation Likely in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Odds-on, the consensus forecast for May's GDP report, released on Wednesday, will miss the mark.

8 July 2019 50 is Off the Table, Would Strong Sales and Inflation Data Kill the 25? (Publication Centre)

The June employment report pretty much killed the idea that the Fed will cut rates by 50bp on July 31.

9 Jan 2020 Higher Investment Alone won't Solve the U.K.'s Productivity Problem (Publication Centre)

Productivity statistics released yesterday continued to paint a bleak picture. Output per worker rose by a mere 0.1% year-over-year in Q3, despite jumping by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.

8 Nov 2019 About that German Recession in Q2 and Q3...It's is a Very Close Call (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in Germany endured another miserable quarter in Q3.

9 December 2016 Mexico's Consumers Will Face a Tough 2017 (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economic outlook has dimmed recently, a point driven home by sentiment data released last week. Still, we think GDP growth will slow only marginally in Q4, to about 11⁄2% year-over-year. Consumers' spending likely will remain strong in the near term, thanks mainly to rising remittances from the U.S., driven by fear of policy changes under the Trump administration.

9 August 2018 June GDP Data to Show Economy has Little Underlying Momentum (Publication Centre)

Investors with long sterling positions should not pin their hopes on Friday's GDP report to reverse some of the losses endured over the last week.

9 April 2019 Inflation in the Andes Remains Tame Despite Overshooting in March (Publication Centre)

Colombia and Chile faced similar broad trends through most of 2018.

9 Dec 2019 Fluke or Real? Don't Leap to Conclusions Either Way, Yet (Publication Centre)

We have two competing explanations for the unexpected leap in November payrolls. First, it was a fluke, so it will either be revised down substantially, or will be followed by a hefty downside correction in December.

9 Dec 2019 Germany's Economy is Still Either in, or Very Close to, Recession (Publication Centre)

The hard data in Germany took a turn for the worse at the start of Q4. The outlook for consumers' spending was dented by the October plunge in retail sales--see here-- and on Friday, the misery spilled over into manufacturing.

9 Dec 2019 Japan's Fiscal Boost will Disappoint, Capacity Constraints are a Drag (Publication Centre)

In Friday's Monitor we analysed the draft Japanese budget, as reported by Bloomberg. We suggested that the GDP bang-for-government-expenditure- buck is likely to be less than that implied by the authorities' forecasts.

9 Dec 2019 Inflation is Ending the Year at a Comfortable Rate, but Threats Loom (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday showed that November inflation was in line with, or below, expectations in Brazil, Colombia and Chile.

9 April 2018 Q1 GDP Shaping up to be Weak, Leaving a May Rate Rise in Doubt (Publication Centre)

Most investors remain convinced that the MPC will raise Bank Rate when it meets next, on May 10.

9 April 2018 March Payrolls Don't Signal a Shift in the Trend, Expect 200K-plus in April (Publication Centre)

March payrolls were constrained by both the impact of colder and snowier weather than usual in the survey week, and a correction in the construction and retail components, which were unsustainably strong in February.

8 Nov 2019 The RMB Rally is Understandable, but Let's not Over-egg it (Publication Centre)

The RMB has been on a tear, as expectations for a "Phase One" trade deal have firmed.

8 Nov 2019 Inflation in Brazil Supports a Dovish BCB, Mexican Capex Rebounded (Publication Centre)

Headline inflation in Brazil remained low in October, and even breached the lower bound of the BCB's target range.

8 November 2017 Mexico's Leading Indicators Remain Strong Despite Mixed Hard Data (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been mixed, distorted by temporary factors, including the effect of the natural disasters in late Q3. Private consumption has lost some momentum, hit by the lagged effect of high interest rates and inflation, as well as the earthquakes.

8 Sept 2020 July GDP to Show V-Shaped Recovery Remains Elusive (Publication Centre)

We expect July's GDP report, released on Friday, to show that overall output rose by about 7.0% month-to-month, bringing it to 11.5% below its pre-Covid peak.

8 September 2017 Production Likely Jumped in July, but it Won't Drive a Q3 Revival (Publication Centre)

The consensus that industrial production increased by just 0.2% month-to-month in July looks too cautious.

8 Sept 2020 Private Payrolls Slowing, September Likely to be Weaker than August (Publication Centre)

The tiny headline consensus beat in the August payrolls numbers is nothing to get excited about, and neither is the unexpected drop in the headline unemployment rate.

8 Jan 2020 ADP is Unlikely To Repeat November's Huge Undershoot (Publication Centre)

The contrast between November's very modest 67K ADP private payroll number and the surprising 254K official reading was startling, even when the 46K boost to the latter from returning GM strikers is stripped out.

7 June 2018 Car Sales Aren't Recovering Yet, Recent Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

At first glance, car sales appear to be staging a strong recovery, mirroring the better news on high street spending in Q2.

7 June 2017 The Slowing in Consumer Credit Demand is Good News (Publication Centre)

Today's consumer credit report for April likely will show that the stock of debt rose by about $15B, a bit below the recent trend. The monthly numbers are volatile, but the underlying trend rate of increase has eased over the past year-and-a-half, as our first chart shows. The slowdown has been concentrated in the non-revolving component, though the rate of growth of the stock of revolving credit--mostly credit cards--has dipped recently, perhaps because of weather effects and the late Easter.

7 June 2017 Sentiment Indicators Signal Better Times for the Mexican Economy (Publication Centre)

Mexico's survey data have improved significantly over the last few months, reaching levels last since before Donald Trump won the U.S. election in November. This suggest that the economy is in much better shape than feared earlier this year. Consumer confidence, for instance, has continued its recovery.

7 June 2019 GDP Likely Fell Again in April, But the Pain Will Be All in Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

April's GDP report, released on Monday, likely will add fuel to the fire of the re cent sharp decline in interest rate expectations.

7 June 2019 The RBI's Third Rate Cut is Overkill a U-Turn is Likely, Soon (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted yesterday to cut the benchmark repo rate by a further 25 basis points, to 5.75%, a nine-year low.

7 Nov 2019 A Rare Batch of Good News in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were mostly positive.

7 March 2019 The ECB Will Take a Knife to its GDP and CPI Forecasts Today (Publication Centre)

In some sense, today's ECB meeting will be a sobering one for policymakers.

9 July 2019 It Won't Be Just "One and Done" for the MPC, in the Event of No-Deal (Publication Centre)

The sharp fall in markets' expectations for Bank Rate over the last month has partly reflected the perceived increase in the chance of a no-deal Brexit. Betting markets are pricing-in around a 30% chance of a no-deal departure before the end of this year, up from 10% shortly after the first Brexit deadline was missed.

7 July 2020 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue in Q3? (Publication Centre)

Recent economic indicators in Mexico have been terrible. The worst of the recession seems to be over, but recent hard data have underscored the severity of the shock and made it clear that the recovery has a long way to go.

9 July 2019 The German Economy Hit a Brick Wall in the Second Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's headline economic data in Germany were decent enough. Industrial output edged higher by 0.3% month-to-month in May, lifted primarily by rising production of capital and consumer goods.

9 July 2020 Checking-in on EZ Policy Stimulus, The Money is still Flowing (Publication Centre)

If you had predicted at the start of the year that the ECB balance sheet would leap by just over €1.5T in H1, you would have been laughed out of the room.

7 Jan 2020 Emerging Signs of a "Boris Bounce" in December's Services PMI (Publication Centre)

Hopes that GDP growth will strengthen following the general election, which has eliminated near- term threats of a no-deal Brexit and a business- hostile Labour government, were bolstered yesterday by the release of December's Markit/ CIPS services survey.

7 Jan 2020 Oil Prices haven't Risen Enough to Disturb Consumers, Yet (Publication Centre)

The jump in oil prices over the past two trading days eventually will lift retail gasoline prices by about 35 cents per gallon, or 131⁄2%.

7 July 2017 China's Authorities Losing the Regulatory Arbitrage Game (Publication Centre)

All regulators face the challenge that when you regulate one part of the economy, problems appear somewhere else. For China, the game is particularly intense because liquidity created by previous debt binges continues to slosh around the financial system, with no outlet to the real economy.

7 July 2017 Andean Economies Improving as First-Half Shocks Fade (Publication Centre)

The Imacec data released on Wednesday provided further evidence that the Chilean economy grew at a decent pace in the second quarter, following a very sluggish first quarter.

7 Nov 2019 GDP Likely Was Little Changed in September, Rounding off a Solid Q3 (Publication Centre)

The economic data calendar for next week is so congested that we need to preview early September's GDP report, released on Monday.

7 Nov 2019 India Started Q4 Badly, Modi's RCEP Snub is Short-Sighted (Publication Centre)

India's PMIs for October were grim, indicating minimal carry-over of energy from the third quarter rebound.

8 April 2019 Andean Economies Hoping for a U.S.-China Trade Deal Soon (Publication Centre)

Fears of a Chinese hard landing have roiled financial and commodity markets this past year and have constrained the economic recovery of major raw material exporters in LatAm.

8 Apr 2020 More Solid Pre-Covid-19 Data in the Eurozone Economy (Publication Centre)

Hard data in the Eurozone continue to tell a story of a relatively bright pre-Covid-19 world.

8 Apr 2020 February GDP Data to Show Little Pre-Virus Momentum (Publication Centre)

February's GDP report, released on Thursday, likely will show that the economy continued to struggle for momentum, despite the fillip to sentiment stemming from the general election.

8 Aug 2019 June GDP to Reassure that the Economy is Avoiding Recession (Publication Centre)

Friday's GDP report should show that the economy narrowly avoided contracting in Q2.

8 August 2017 Will Mexico's Economy Resilience Continue in the Second Half? (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy maintained its relatively strong momentum in Q2. The first estimate of Q2 GDP, released last week, confirmed that growth was resilient during the first half of this year, despite the confidence hit caused by domestic and external headwinds.

8 February 2019 Brazil's Policymakers are in no Rush to Change Rates Reform is the Key (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board--the Copom--voted unanimously on Wednesday to keep the Selic rate on hold at 6.50%.

8 December 2017 Production Likely Was Neither Strong Nor Stable in October (Publication Centre)

The 0.7% month-to-month rise in industrial production in September marked the sixth consecutive increase, a feat last achieved 23 years ago.

7 September. 2016 Capex Rebounding in Q3, Except in the Housing Component (Publication Centre)

If you had asked us in the spring where the action would be in capital spending over the summer, we would have said that the housing component was the best bet. Right now, though, the opposite seems more likely, with housing likely to be the weakest component of capex.

7 September 2018 Brace for Soft Looking August Payroll and Hourly Earnings Data (Publication Centre)

In the wake of yesterday's ADP report, which showed private payrolls rising by only 163K, we have pulled down our forecast for today's official number to 170K.

7 November 2017 Central Bank in Argentina and Peru to Leave Rates on Hold this Week (Publication Centre)

Argentina's central bank likely will leave its main interest rate at 27.75% tomorrow at its biweekly monetary policy meeting.

9 Jan 2020 Mortgage Demand Still Rising, Home Price Gains Set to Pick Up (Publication Centre)

The reported drop in mortgage applications over the holidays is now reversing, not that it ever mattered.

7 Oct 2019 Progress on Brazil's Fiscal Reform Resilient Remittances in Mexico (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Senate concluded last week the first vote- of-two- on the pension reform.

7 Sept 2020 Brazil's Industrial Recovery Gathered Speed in July, But Risks Abound (Publication Centre)

Brazilian industrial production data released last week were upbeat. Output rose 8.0% month-to-month in July, much better than the consensus forecast for a 5.9% increase.

7 September 2018 Are Chinese Efforts to Stabilise Growth Starving Private Firms (Publication Centre)

China's authorities recognised, around the middle of this year, that activity was slowing and that monetary conditions had become overly tight.

7 Sept 2020 GDP Growth will Slow Sharply as Temporary Supports are Removed (Publication Centre)

Data released during our summer break have strengthened the case for expecting the economic recovery to decelerate sharply in the autumn, well before GDP has returned to pre-Covid levels.

5 May 2017 Brazil's Industrial Output Dropped in March, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's Brazilian industrial production data were worse than we expected but the details were less alarming than the headline. Output slipped 1.8% month-to-month in March, the biggest fall since August 2015, setting a low starting point for Q2.

5 March 2019 The PPI is the Final Shoe to Drop in the EZ from Chinese Weakness (Publication Centre)

The economic slowdown in China is old news for Eurozone investors.

30 November 2018 EZ Inflation Likely Fell More than Markets Expected in November (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's November inflation reports from Germany and Spain suggest that today's data for the Eurozone as a whole will undershoot the consensus.

30 May 2019 More Pain Before the Gain Will Markets Force Trump to the Table (Publication Centre)

The trade war with China is not big enough or bad enough alone to push the U.S. economy into recession.

30 May 2018 Argentina's Economy had a Solid Q1, but the Pain is Starting to Show (Publication Centre)

Hard data released in Argentina over recent weeks showed that the economy was resilient in Q1 and early Q2.

30 Oct 2019 BoJ Forecasts Due for a Downgrade, Expect a Package of Measures (Publication Centre)

Markets see a strong possibility, though not a probability, that the BoJ will cut rates on Thursday.

30 Oct 2019 Copom to Cut Further, Politics Allows some Room for Manoeuvre (Publication Centre)

The news in Brazil on inflation and politics has been relatively positive in recent weeks, allowing policymakers to keep cutting interest rates to boost the stuttering recovery.

30 October 2018 Are Chinese Pro ts Normalising But the Headwinds Remain (Publication Centre)

Chinese headline industrial profits data show that growth slowed to just 4.1% year-over-year in September, from 9.2% in August.

30 Oct. 2015 The Third Quarter ECI is Set to Rebound, but How Far? (Publication Centre)

We have been asked by a few readers how much confidence we have in our forecast of a 1% rebound in the third quarter employment costs index, well above the 0.6% consensus and the mere 0.2% second quarter gain. The answer, unfortunately, is not much, though we do think that the balance of risks to the consensus is to the upside.

30 May 2018 ADP Likely to Report Solid Gain in May Payrolls (Publication Centre)

The models which generate the ADP measure of private payrolls will benefit in May from the strength of the headline industrial production, business sales and jobless claims numbers.

30 Mar 2020 Industrial Profits Data Complete China's Grim Start to 2020 (Publication Centre)

Industrial profits in China collapsed by 38.3% year- over-year in the first two months of 2020, making December's 6.3% fall look like a minor blip.

30 July 2019 No Pre-Brexit Panic Signalled by Monetary Indicators (Publication Centre)

The alarming pace at which the Government is marching towards the Brexit cliff edge still shows no sign of instilling panic among households or firms.

30 July 2019 Data released last week confirmed that economic activity improved significantly in Argentina in Q2. (Publication Centre)

Argentina's Recession Has Ended, Supporting Mr. Macri's Odds

30 June 2017 China's Government Still has Room to Clean up, but what if they Balk? (Publication Centre)

In the yesterday's Monitor, we presented an exagerated upper-bound for China's bad debt problem, at 61% of GDP. The limitations of the data meant that we double-counted a significant portion of non-financial corporate--NFC--debt with financial corporations and government.

30 June 2020 Case Growth Might be Starting to Slow in Arizona, Others Later (Publication Centre)

It's possible that first hints of better news ahead in the Covid surge in the South and West are beginning to emerge in the data.

30 Mar 2020 Covid-19 is a Battering Ram to EZ Economic Policymaking  (Publication Centre)

The coronavirus outbreak, by definition, will fade eventually, but we suspect the measures to combat it will be more long-lasting. In terms of sheer scale, EZ governments and the ECB are throwing the kitchen sink at the virus, but that's only half the story.

30 June 2020 Debt has Kept Firms Afloat for Now, but a Winter Reckoning is Coming (Publication Centre)

May's money and credit data show that Covid-19 has not pushed many businesses immediately over the edge.

9 Dec 2019 The Consensus Looks too Downbeat on October GDP (Publication Centre)

The release of October's GDP report on Tuesday likely will be overshadowed by campaigning ahead of Thursday's general election.

31 August 2018 Did Eurozone Core Inflation Decline Slightly in August (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's advance CPI data in Germany suggest that inflation fell slightly in August.

31 May 2017 A Consumer Rebound is Underway, but Watch out for Healthcare Costs (Publication Centre)

In the wake of April's 0.2% increase in real consumers' spending, and the upward revisions to the first quarter numbers, we now think that second quarter spending is on course to rise at an annualized rate of about 3.5%.

31 Mar 2020 The ECB Faces a Key Question, Yield Curve Control or Not (Publication Centre)

As we showed in yesterday's Monitor--see here--EZ governments and the ECB have thrown caution to the wind in their efforts to limit the pain from the Covid-19 crisis.

31 Mar 2020 Expanded Fiscal Support Opens Road to Chinese QE (Publication Centre)

The PBoC cut its seven-day reverse repo rate to 2.20%, from 2.40%, while making a token injection; the Bank only moves these rates when it injects funds.

31 May 2017 Manifestos Point to Very Different Public Borrowing Paths (Publication Centre)

The recent narrowing of the Conservatives' opinion poll lead suggests that investors, particularly in the gilt market, now must consider other parties' fiscal proposals.

31 May 2019 Q&A on the Government Takeover of Baoshang Bank (Publication Centre)

Was this an isolated occurrence, connected to the graft investigation into Chinese billionaire Xiao Jianhua, and his financial conglomerate?

4 April 2019 Japan's Services Survey Data Overstate Q1 Strength (Publication Centre)

Japan's services PMI edged down to 52.0 in March, from 52.3 in February, taking the Q1 average to 52.0, minimally up from Q4's 51.9.

31 October 2018 Mexico's Airport Cancellation will Damage the Economic Outlook (Publication Centre)

Mexico's financial markets and risk metrics plunged early this week, following the AMLO government's decision to cancel the construction of the new airport in Mexico City, after a public consultation held in the previous four days.

31 Mar 2020 Covid-19 Brings More Economic Pain for Argentina, and Bondholders (Publication Centre)

The virus outbreak has been relatively limited so far in Argentina, with 820 confirmed cases, but the numbers are rising rapidly.

31 Mar 2020 Business and Consumer Confidence are Cratering, Further Falls Ahead (Publication Centre)

A pair of closely-watched reports today will confirm that business and consumer confidence is tanking in the face of the coronavirus outbreak.

31 August. 2016 Colombia's Economy Slowed in Q2, Will it Rebound Soon? (Publication Centre)

Colombia's second quarter GDP data, released Monday, revealed a dismal 2.0% year-over-year growth rate, down from 2.5% in Q1. GDP rose by a very modest 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, for the second consecutive quarter. The year-over-year rate was the slowest since the end of the financial crisis, but it is in line with our 2.1% forecast for this year as a whole.

31 August. 2016 ADP Likely to Report Strong August Payrolls, But it's Unreliable (Publication Centre)

We are expecting a hefty increase in the August ADP employment number today--our forecast is 225K, above the 175K consensus --but we do not anticipate a similar official payroll number on Friday. Remember, the ADP number is based on a model which incorporates lagged official employment data, the Philly Fed's ADS Business Conditions Index, and data from firms which use ADP for payroll processing.

31 Jan 2020 Services Output Supported a Weakening Mexican Economy in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of full-year 2019 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was extremely poor, due to domestic and external shocks.

31 January 2019 Japanese Retail Sales Demand a Q4 Private Consumption Upgrade (Publication Centre)

The value of Japanese retail sales bounced back strongly in December, rising 0.9% month-on-month, after a 1.1% drop in November.

31 July 2020 Every Employment Indicator is Continuing to Glow Bright Red (Publication Centre)

We remain concerned that huge job losses are imminent, slowing the economic recovery after a mid-summer spurt.

31 July 2018 Employment Costs are Accelerating, but Slowly... For Now (Publication Centre)

The most important number, potentially, in today's wave of economic reports is the Employment Costs Index for second quarter.

30 January 2019 Colombia's Economic Growth Prospects will Improve Soon (Publication Centre)

Recently released data in Colombia signal that the economy ended last year quite strongly.

30 January 2018 Mexico's Trade Gap Shrank in 2017, Helped by NAFTA-Related Fears (Publication Centre)

Mexico's trade balance shrank slightly last year, to USD11B, from USD13B in 2016. The main driver was a big swing in the non- energy balance, to a record USD8.0B surplus, following a USD0.4B deficit in 2016.

3 July 2020 Can Any Valuable Information be Extracted from the PMIs? (Publication Centre)

The release today of the final reading of the composite PMI for June will provoke further debate over its usefulness in charting the economy's recovery from the Covid-19 shock.

3 July 2020 BanRep Slows the Pace of Rate Cuts, Despite Record High Unemployment (Publication Centre)

Data released over the last few weeks have confirmed that Colombia's economic performance in Q2 was grim, adding weight to our below-consensus GDP forecast.

3 July 2019 Further Signs of a Q2 Slowdown in German Consumption (Publication Centre)

German retail sales always have to be taken with a pinch of salt, given their monthly volatility and often substantial revisions, but the preliminary Q2 data don't look pretty.

3 June 2019 China's Faltering "Recovery" will Keep its Trade Negotiators Engaged (Publication Centre)

The sharp fall in China's manufacturing PMI in May makes clear that its recovery is nowhere near secured.

3 June 2019 Trade is Now Trump's Weapon for Everything, but it Shoots Backwards (Publication Centre)

The chance of a self-inflicted, unnecessary weakening in the economy this year, and perhaps even a recession, has increased markedly in the wake of the president's announcement on Friday that tariffs will be applied to all imports from Mexico, from June 10.

3 Mar 2020 A Bad Q1 for LatAm, DM Stimulus will be Only a Temporary Boost (Publication Centre)

It has been a nasty start to the year for LatAm as markets have been hit by renewed volatility in China, triggered by the coronavirus.

3 June 2020 Public Finances in France will Crumble under Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

French finance minister Bruno Le Maire had bad news for his compatriots yesterday.

3 July 2018 Tariffs and Truck Shortages are Creating Industrial Bottlenecks (Publication Centre)

The startling jump in supplier delivery times in the June ISM manufacturing survey, to a 14-year high, was due--according to the ISM press release--to disruptions to steel and aluminum supplies, transportation problems and "supplier labor issues".

3 January 2019 Huge External Deficit Points to Big No-Deal Downside for Sterling (Publication Centre)

The U.K.'s balance of payments leaves little room for doubt that sterling would sink like a stone in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

3 February 2017 Brazil's Q4 Industrial Output was Poor, Q1 Will be Much Better (Publication Centre)

Brazil's Q4 industrial production report, released Wednesday, confirmed that the recovery remained sluggish at the end of last year. December's print alone was relatively strong, though, and the cyclical correction in inventories--on the back of improving demand--lower interest rates, and the better external outlook, all suggest that the industrial economy will do much better this year.

3 Feb 2020 Improving Money and Credit Trends Point to Further MPC Inaction (Publication Centre)

December's money and credit data support the MPC's decision last week to hold back from providing the economy with more stimulus.

3 Jan 2020 LatAm Prospects are Gradually Improving as Trade Tensions Ease (Publication Centre)

The data in LatAm were all over the map while we were out.

3 Jan 2020 Manufacturing Still Struggling, but no Longer Sinking Deeper (Publication Centre)

The substantial gap between the key manufacturing surveys for the U.S. and China, relative to their long-term relationship, likely narrowed a bit in December.

3 January 2018 The Manufacturing Upswing Continues no Sign of Weakening (Publication Centre)

The Manufacturing Upswing Continues; no Sign of Weakening

3 January 2018 Synchronized Recovery in the Andes. Inflation Continues to Fall (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent weeks have confirmed that the Andean economies retained a degree of momentum in Q4, with inflation well under con trol.

3 Mar 2020 China's PMIs Mean Our GDP Downgrades are the Right Call (Publication Centre)

Last week we made a big call and further downgraded our China GDP forecasts for Q1; daily data and survey evidence suggested that our initial take, though grim, had not been grim enough.

3 May 2017 Fed on Hold Today After Mixed Data, but a June Hike Still Looks Likely (Publication Centre)

The Fed likely will do nothing today, both in terms of interest rates and substantive changes to the statement. We'd be very surprised to hear anything new on the Fed's plans for its balance sheet.

30 August 2017 ADP Looks set to Report Another Solid Gain in Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a hefty increase in private payrolls in today's August ADP employment report. ADP's number is generated by a model which incorporates macroeconomic statistics and lagged official payroll data, as well as information collected from firms which use ADP's payroll processing services.

30 Aug 2019 Brazil's Economy Averts Recession, but the Recovery will be Sluggish (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy managed to avert a technical recession over the first half of the year.

30 April 2019 Three Soft Core PCE Deflator Numbers Don't Make a Trend (Publication Centre)

It's pretty easy to spin a story that the recent core PCE numbers represent a sharp and alarming turn south.

30 August 2017 Argentina's Recovery is Gaining Traction but Inflation is Still a Risk (Publication Centre)

Recently data from Argentina continue to signal a firming cyclical recovery. According to INDEC's EMAE economic activity index, a monthly proxy for GDP, the economy grew 4.0% year-over-year in June, up from an already-solid 3.4% in May.

30 Jan 2020 Coronavirus Raises the Risks of a Technical Recession in Japan (Publication Centre)

Japan is one of the countries most exposed to economic damage from the coronavirus.

30 Jan 2020 The Chancellor's GDP Growth Target is Practically Unachievable (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Javid told the Financial Times earlier this month that he wants to lift the rate of GDP growth to between 2.7% and 2.8%, the average rate in the 50 years following the Second World War.

30 Jan 2020 Fed Policy Still "Appropriate", FOMC Watching Virus Story "Very Carefully" (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's FOMC , announcing a unanimous vote for no change in the funds rate, is almost identical to December's.

30 April 2019 Focus on Accelerating M1 Growth amid Still-Poor Survey Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic numbers in the Eurozone were mixed, but we are inclined to see them through rose-tinted glasses.

30 April 2018 Q1 Slowdown Confirmed in the EZ, but Don't Push the Panic Button (Publication Centre)

Friday's advance GDP data provided the first solid evidence of a Q1 slowdown in the euro area economy.

3 Oct 2019 ADP Consistent with September Jobs up 150K the Trend is Slowing (Publication Centre)

ADP's report that September private payrolls rose by 135K was slightly better than we expected, but not by enough to change our 150K forecast for tomorrow's official report.

3 May 2019 Inventories Could Spoil the Party for the EZ Economy in Q2 and Q3 (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in the Eurozone are still suffering, but yesterday's final PMI data for April offered a few bright spots.

3 Sep 2020 The German Consumer is in Good Shape, Relatively Speaking (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, yesterday's German consumption data were disappointingly weak.

3 Sept 2019 Don't Rely on the Manufacturing PMI for an Accurate Read in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The fall in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI to 47.4 in August--its lowest level since July 2012--from 48.0 in July suggests that pre-Brexit stockpiling isn't countering the hit to demand from Brexit uncertainty and the global industrial slowdown.

30 Apr 2020 The Fed is Doing all it Can (Publication Centre)

The Fed's statement yesterday was unsurprising, acknowledging a "sharp" decline in economic activity and a significant tightening of financial conditions, which has "impaired the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses."

3 Sept 2019 Andean Economies Start Q3 on a Good Note, Argentina on the Brink (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday show that the Chilean economy had a weak start to the second half of the year.

4 Aug 2020 Chile's Economic Recovery Started Strongly in June, Despite the Virus (Publication Centre)

Data released in recent days confirmed the intensity of the Covid-related shock to the Chilean economy in Q2.

4 Aug 2020 Manufacturing is Recovering, but it has not Recovered (Publication Centre)

Under normal circumstances, sustained ISM manufacturing readings around the July level, 54.2, would be consistent with GDP growth of about 2% year-over-year.

5 Dec 2019 The Downshift in ADP Employment Probably is Signal, not Noise (Publication Centre)

We were worried about downside risk to yesterday's ADP employment measure, but the 67K increase in November private payrolls was at the very bottom of our expected range.

5 Dec 2019 Growth in EZ Services Activity is Slowing, but Not Crashing (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data showed that the euro area PMIs were a bit stronger than initially estimated in November.

5 Aug 2020 Upside Risk for ADP Today, but the Uncertainty is Great (Publication Centre)

The advance indicators of July payrolls are wildly contradictory, so you should be prepared for anything from a consensus-busting jump to a renewed outright drop, in both Friday's official numbers and today's ADP report.

5 Dec 2019 Why We Aren't Panicking About India's Weaker Q3 GDP Print (Publication Centre)

India's headline GDP print for the third quarter was damning, with growth slowing further, to 4.5% year- over-year, from 5.0% in Q2.

5 Dec 2019 Would the Conservatives Really Run a Tight Fiscal Ship? (Publication Centre)

Over the summer, both Chancellor Javid and PM Johnson appeared to be repositioning the Conservatives, claiming that the era of austerity was over and that higher levels of spending and investment were justified.

5 December 2018 Brazil's Industrial Output Started Q4 Softly, but the Trend is Rising (Publication Centre)

Brazil's key data flow started Q4 on a soft note, but we still believe that the economic recovery will gather strength over the next three-to-six months.

5 December 2016 Mexico's PMIs Fell in November, Q4 GDP Outlook is Poor (Publication Centre)

The MXN came under pressure last week as news broke that Banxico Governor Agustin Carstens plans to resign next year. Mr. Carstens has led the bank since 2010; during his term, Banxico cut interest rates to record low levels and managed to keep inflation under control.

5 Aug 2020 Mortgage Refinancing will Support Incomes Immaterially This Year (Publication Centre)

The economy will endure a sluggish recovery from Covid-19 this year, even if a second wave of the virus is avoided, partly because monetary stimulus is not filtering through powerfully to households.

5 April 2019 Mexico's Economy Remained Weak in Q1, but it will Rebound from Q2 (Publication Centre)

The relative strength of the investor and consumer confidence reports for March, released this week, signal a better outlook for the Mexican economy.

9 May 2019 Core PPI Inflation has Fallen Recently, but the Bottom is Near (Publication Centre)

Core producer price inflation is falling, and it probably has not yet hit bottom.

9 May 2019 March GDP Likely to Continue the Run of Above-Consensus Prints (Publication Centre)

We're among a small minority of economists forecasting that GDP rose by 0.1% month-to-month in March.

4 Sep 2020 Downside Risk for August Payrolls, September Likely Weaker Still (Publication Centre)

Two approaches to forecasting payrolls have been the most useful in recent months, and both point to August payrolls rising by less than the 1,350K consensus; our forecast is 750K.

4 Sept 2019 Manufacturing in Brazil Struggles, Supporting the Case for Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Brazilian industrial production data were downbeat.

5 April 2017 The Brazilian Economy is Improving: Expect a Modest Q1 GDP Recovery (Publication Centre)

Brazilian February industrial production data, released yesterday, were relatively positive. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month, pushing the yearover- year rate down to -0.8% from 1.4% in January. Statistical quirks were behind February's year-over-year fall, though.

4 Sept 2019 Will Italian 10-Year Yields Go to Zero We Don't See Why Not (Publication Centre)

We sympathise if readers are sceptical of our opening gambit in this Monitor.

5 Feb 2020 A Poor Finish to 2019 for Brazil's Industry, COPOM to Cut Rates (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed that the recovery was stuttering at the end of last year.

5 Feb 2020 New Fiscal Forecasts Will Clip the Chancellor's Wings (Publication Centre)

The Budget on March 11 will be the first time that the new government's ambition and bluster collide with reality.

5 June 2020 Chinese Construction is Chugging Away, while Services are Subdued (Publication Centre)

China's official non-manufacturing PMI rose further in May, hitting a four-month high of 53.6.

5 June 2019 The Fed will Ease if Trade Makes the Sky Fall in Otherwise, Patience (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell yesterday said about as little as he could without appearing to ignore the turmoil in markets since the President announced his intention to apply tariffs to imports from Mexico: "We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective."

5 June 2019 Good Economic and Political News in Brazil Is the Outlook Improving (Publication Centre)

The week started well for Brazil's President Bolsonaro.

5 June 2020 The Economy Started Sluggishly in May, But Soon Gathered Momentum (Publication Centre)

Our judgement that April was the low point for economic activity was challenged yesterday by the publication of results of the fifth wave of the Business Impact of COVID-19 Survey, conducted by the ONS between May 4 and 17.

5 Mar 2020 Does the Fed's Cut Open the Asian Floodgates for Rate Reductions (Publication Centre)

The Fed's unscheduled 50bp cut on Tuesday opens up some space for Asian central banks to follow suit.

5 March 2019 Argentina's Medium-term Outlook is Improving, but Challenges Remain (Publication Centre)

The outlook for Argentina is gradually improving, after a long and painful recession.

5 Mar 2020 How far Will EZ Services Fall, and Will it Cause a Recession (Publication Centre)

It will take a while for the economic data in the euro area fully to reflect the Covid-19 shock, but the incoming numbers paint an increasingly clear picture of an improving economy going into the outbreak.

5 June 2018 ISM Non-manufacturing Set to Rebound, Watch Employment (Publication Centre)

The headline May ISM non-manufacturing index today likely will mirror, at least in part, the increase in the manufacturing survey, reported Friday.

5 July 2018 EZ Services Activity is Solid, Despite Slowing a Bit in H1 2018 (Publication Centre)

Headline Eurozone PMI data have declined steadily since the beginning of the year, but the June numbers stopped the rot.

5 February 2019 Spain's Economy is Still the Unsung Hero in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The majority of headlines from last week's advance Q4 GDP data in the Eurozone--see here--were negative.

5 February 2019 Rising Debt Servicing Costs Will Constrain any Recovery in Capex (Publication Centre)

Private non-financial corporations' profits have held up well over the last two years, despite the net negative impact of sterling's depreciation and modest increases in Bank Rate.

5 January 2018 Don't Forget the Upbeat Story in Eurozone Services (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's final PMI data added to the evidence that the EZ economy was firing on all cylinders at the end of last year. The composite PMI in the euro area rose to an 11-year high of 58.5 in December, from 57.5 in November, in line with the initial estimate.

5 January 2018 Time to Talk Chinese New Year Already, Ignore the PMI Jumps (Publication Centre)

The Caixin services PMI jumped sharply to 53.9 in December from 51.9 in November. All the PMIs picked up significantly, but we find this hard to believe and suspect seasonality is to blame, though the adjustment is tricky.

5 July 2018 Beware Inferring Too Much From June's Slightly Stronger PMIs (Publication Centre)

The pick-up in the Markit/CIPS services PMI to an eight-month high of 55.1 in June, from 54.0 in May, has provided another boost to expectations that the MPC will raise Bank Rate at its next meeting on August 2.

5 July 2017 BoJ to Jettison Quantity Target as Voters Express Discontent (Publication Centre)

Mr Abe's Liberal Democratic Party took a drubbing at the polls in Tokyo's Assembly election over the weekend. The consequences for fiscal spending probably are minimal but the vote strengthens the case for increased emphasis on the structural reform "arrow" and less focus on monetary policy.

4 October 2017 Survey Data Suggest Recoveries in Brazil and Mexico are on Track (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian economy has been recovering at a decent pace in recent months. The labor market is on the mend, with the unemploymen t rate falling rapidly to 12.5% in August from 14% at the end of Q1.

9 November 2018 Stockbuilding Won't Temper the Near-Term Slowdown (Publication Centre)

A flawed theory still is circulating that the economy might outperform over the next two quarters because firms will stockpile goods due to the risk of a no-deal Brexit.

4 January 2019 December Payrolls Look Set for Hefty Gain, but Downside AHE Risk (Publication Centre)

Today's December payroll number was a tricky call even before yesterday's remarkably strong ADP report, showing private payrolls soaring by 271K.

4 January 2019 Bank Equities can do Well in 2019, even as Credit Growth Slows (Publication Centre)

Money supply growth in the euro area eased further towards the end of Q4.

4 January 2017 December's ISM looks great, but it's not definitive (Publication Centre)

It probably would be wise to view the increase in the ISM manufacturing index in December with a degree of skepticism. The index is supposed to record only hard activity, but we can't help but wonder if some of the euphoria evident in surveys of consumers' sentiment has leaked into responses to the ISM. That said, the jump in the key new orders index-- which tends to lead the other components--looked to be overdue, relative to the strength of the import component of China's PMI.

4 January 2019 Mexican Economic Growth Will Continue, but at a Very Modest Pace (Publication Centre)

The economic calendar in Mexico was relatively quiet over Christmas, and broadly conformed to our expectations of resilient economic activity in Q4.

4 July 2017 BanRep Speeds up Rate Cuts, Expect Further Stimulus this Month (Publication Centre)

BanRep accelerated the pace of easing last Friday, cutting Colombia's key interest rate by a bold 50 basis points, to 5.75%. Economic activity has been under severe pressure in recent months. The economy expanded by only 1.1% year-over-year in Q1, following an already weak 1.6% in Q4.

4 June 2019 More Negative News for the Andes Economies, due to Trade Tensions (Publication Centre)

Economic prospects in the Andes have deteriorated significantly in recent weeks, due mainly to the escalation of the trade war.

4 July 2019 We Know the Names of the EU's New Top Brass, and That's About it (Publication Centre)

Europe's political leaders finally made a breakthrough this week in nominating candidates for the top jobs in the EU.

4 February 2019 Brazil's Q4 Industrial Weakness was Offset by Robust Consumption (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December industrial production and labour reports, released late last week, confirmed that the recovery was struggling at the end of last year.

4 Feb 2020 Coronavirus will Keep Policymakers in the Andes on the Sidelines (Publication Centre)

Colombia's central bank has found a relatively sweet spot.

4 Dec 2019 ADP Employment Likely to Capture Weakening Labor Demand (Publication Centre)

The ADP employment report was on the money in October at the headline level--it undershot the official private payroll number by a trivial 6K--but the BLS's measure was hit by the absence of 46K striking GM workers from the data.

4 Aug 2020 Rising Covid-19 Infections Signal no Further Net Reopening (Publication Centre)

The continued gradual rise in new confirmed cases of Covid-19 lends more weight to the idea that the economy already has reopened as much as possible while containing the virus.

2 Dec 2019 Further Increase in Japanese Unemployment in Store (Publication Centre)

Japan's jobless rate was unchanged, at 2.4% in October, as the market took a breather after September's job losses.

4 Dec 2019 GDP Growth Will Rise in Brazil Next Year, but External Risk is Looming (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday confirm that Brazil's recovery has continued over the second half of the year, supported by steady capex growth and rebounding household consumption.

4 December 2018 The China-U.S Trade Truce Eases Downside Risks for Chile and Peru (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets and currencies enjoyed a good start to the week, following the agreement between the U.S. and China to pause the trade war.

4 December 2018 Eurozone Markets Want to Believe in the U.S.-China Trade Truce (Publication Centre)

The 90-day truce in the trade wars between the U.S. and China, brokered on Saturday at the G20 meeting in Argentina, is a big deal for financial markets in the euro area, at least in the near term.

4 June 2019 The Q2 Fall in Manufacturing Output Won't Alter the MPC's Course (Publication Centre)

The downbeat tone of Markit's May manufacturing survey shouldn't come as a surprise, given the weak global backdrop and the inevitable fading of the boost to output from Brexit preparations.

4 June 2020 Don't Set Store by India's Q1 GDP Surprise, no Bullet was Dodged (Publication Centre)

India's consensus-beating GDP report for the first quarter wasn't much to write home about.

9 October 2018 PBoC RRR cut: The Lady Doth Protest too Much, Methinks (Publication Centre)

Over the weekend, the PBoC cut the RRR for the vast majority of banks. FX reserves data released shortly after suggested that the Bank already is propping up the currency.

4 Oct 2019 China Needs a Bigger Current Account Surplus Again (Publication Centre)

China's current account surplus was revised down last week to $46.2B in Q2, from $57.0B in the preliminary data, marking a dip from $49.0B in Q1.

4 Nov 2019 Korea's Export Slump has Bottomed Out... Global Trade will Follow Suit (Publication Centre)

The downturn in global trade looks set to turn a corner, at least judging by the outlook for Korean exports, which are a key bellwether.

9 October 2017 Japan's Wages Continue to Grow, the Party of Hope Reveals Policy (Publication Centre)

Japanese average regular wages increased at an annualised rate of 0.6% in the three months to August compared with the previous three months, matching the rate in July.

9 Oct 2019 Car Output and Sales Data Point to Upside Risk to August's GDP (Publication Centre)

We look for August's GDP report, released on Thursday, to show that output held steady, following July's 0.3% month-to-month jump.

9 Oct 2019 Anaemic Growth in Chile and Low Inflation Warrants more Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

Chile's inflation outlook remains benign, allowing policymakers to cut interest rates if the economic recovery falters.

4 Oct 2019 We're Still Not Buying the PMIs' Recession Message (Publication Centre)

We continue to distrust the suggestion from the Markit/CIPS PMIs that the economy is in recession.

4 May 2018 Weak PMIs Mean Even a "Hawkish Hold" is Off the MPC's Table (Publication Centre)

The failure of the Markit/CIPS services PMI to rebound fully in April, following its fall in March, provides more evidence that the economy is in the midst of an underlying slowdown.

4 May 2017 Strong Q1 GDP Data in the EZ, but the Annualised Trend is not 2% (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone enjoyed a strong start to 2017. Yesterday's advance data showed that real GDP rose 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, a similar pace to Q4, which was revised up by 0.1 percentage points. The year-over-year rate dipped to 1.7%, from an upwardly revised 1.8% in Q4.

4 Mar 2020 Revisions Aside, India's Q4 GDP isn't Worrying, nor is the Virus Risk (Publication Centre)

India's GDP report for the fourth quarter surprised to the upside, with the economy growing by 4.7% year-over-year, against the Bloomberg median forecast of 4.5%.

4 Mar 2020 Brazil's Survey Data Point to a Steady Upturn, but it will Stutter Soon (Publication Centre)

The key story in Brazil this year remains one of gradual recovery, but downside risks have increased sharply, due mainly to challenging external conditions.

4 March 2019 A Solid Finish to 2018 for Colombia Momentum Will be Sustained (Publication Centre)

Colombia's GDP growth hit a relatively solid 2.8% year-over-year in Q4, up from 2.7% in Q3, helped by improving domestic fundamentals, which offset the drag from weaker terms of trade.

9 September. 2016 Political Turbulence in Mexico Won't Derail Fiscal Consolidation (Publication Centre)

Political developments are clouding the horizon in Mexico, at least temporarily. Mexico's Finance Minister Luis Videgaray, the mastermind behind President Enrique Peña Nieto's most important economic reforms, resigned on Wednesday. José Antonio Meade, a former finance chief, has been tapped to replace him.

4 March 2019 Does the Flatter Phillips Curve Mean the Next Downturn will be Severe (Publication Centre)

Investors focussed last week on Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony, but he said nothing much new.

9 Sept 2020 Rebounding Home Prices Likely will Push CPI Rent Inflation Back up (Publication Centre)

The remarkable surge in both new and existing home sales in recent months already has pushed inventory down and prices up.

3 Feb 2020 China's January Survey Data Imply Weakness before the Virus Hit (Publication Centre)

The official PMIs suggest that the January survey data have escaped the worst of the hit from the virus.

18 June 2019 Colombia's Economy Remains Resilient but External Risks are Drag (Publication Centre)

Colombia has been one of LatAm's outperformers this year.

12 February 2019 GDP Likely Will Still Rise Marginally in Q1, Despite December's Dip (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the latest GDP data look awful. December's 0.4% month-to-month fall in GDP closed a poor Q4, in which quar ter-on-quarter growth slowed to 0.2%, from 0.6% in Q3.

12 July 2017 Yellen Will Re-affirm Fed Policy. Expect no Revelations, or Dates (Publication Centre)

Chair Yellen has become quite good at not giving much away at her semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony.

12 June 2017 China's Policy Choices are all Difficult, can Disaster be Averted? (Publication Centre)

China faces three possible macro outcomes over the next few years. First, the economy could pull off an active transition to consumer-led growth. Second, it could gradually slide into Japan-style growth and inflation, with government debt spiralling up. Third, it could face a full blown debt crisis, where the authorities lose control and China drags the global economy down too

12 June 2018 Should Eurozone Investors Fear U.S. Import Tariffs on Cars? (Publication Centre)

Predictably, last weekend's G7 meeting in Canada ended in acrimony between the U.S. and its key trading partners.

12 February 2018 German Labour Costs Are Set to Soar, Does it Matter for the ECB? (Publication Centre)

Apart from a slew of economic data--see here and here--two important things happened in Germany last week.

12 Feb 2020 What on Earth Happened in the Spanish Economy in Q4 (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the Spanish economy conformed to its image as the star performer in the EZ in Q4.

12 December 2018 Is Britain now at the Steep Part of the Phillips Curve? (Publication Centre)

The sudden jump in the headline, three-month average, growth rate of average weekly wages to a 10-year high of 3.3% in October, from just 2.4% four months earlier, might indicate that the U.K. has reached the sharply upward-sloping part of the Phillips Curve.

12 Feb 2020 COPOM Closed the Door to Further Easing, Mexico's Industry Struggles (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's minutes of the February 4-to-5 COPOM meeting, at which Brazil's central bank, the BCB, cut the benchmark Selic rate by 25bp to 4.25%, reaffirmed the committee's post-meeting communiqué.

12 Feb 2020 GDP Data Highlight Scope for a Consumer-led Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The latest GDP data confirm that the economy ended last year on a very weak note.

12 June 2019 Mexico's Manufacturing Remains Resilient USMCA Deal Awaits (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial production report released yesterday brought encouraging news about the state of the economy, helping relieve some doubts about its health.

12 June 2019 Rising Wage Growth Bolsters the Case for Gradual Rate Hikes (Publication Centre)

The case for continuing to increase Bank Rate gradually--recently reiterated by MPC members Andy Haldane and Michael Saunders-- strengthened yesterday with the release of April's labour market report, which revealed renewed momentum in wage growth.

12 May. 2016 Does the Challenger Survey Signal an Upturn in the Pace of Layoffs? (Publication Centre)

You may have seen the chart below, which shows what appears to be an alarming divergence between the official jobless claims numbers and the Challenger survey's measure of job cut announcements. We should say at the outset that the chart makes the fundamental mistake of comparing the unadjusted Challenger data with the seasonally adjusted claims data.

12 Nov 2019 China's October Money Data Mean a 2020 GDP Growth Downgrade (Publication Centre)

We have downgraded our 2019 and 2020 China GDP forecasts on previous occasions because monetary conditions have been surprisingly unresponsive to lower short-term rates.

12 Nov 2019 The Downside Surprise from Q3 GDP has a Silver Lining (Publication Centre)

The headline figures from yesterday's GDP report gave a bad impression. September's 0.1% month-to- month decline in GDP matched the consensus and primarily reflected mean-reversion in car production and car sales, which both picked up in August.

12 November 2018 September's Sombre GDP Report Sets the Tone for the Rest of the Year (Publication Centre)

September's GDP report laid bare the economy's sluggishness.

12 May 2020 Brace for a GDP Drop of About 2.5% in Q1, Despite the Late Lockdown (Publication Centre)

The Q1 GDP figures, released on Wednesday, likely will show that the quarter-on-quarter decline in economic activity eclipsed the biggest decline in the 2008-to-09 recession--2.1% in Q4 2008--even though the U.K. went into lockdown towards the very end of the quarter.

12 May 2020 Andean Economies Stand Out for their Solid Response to Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

The Andean countries were quick to implement significant measures in response to the initial stage of the pandemic, adopting a broad range of economic and social policies to ease the effects.

12 Mar 2020 Fiscal Policy Levers Pulled Aggressively, Limiting Recession Risk (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak's "temporary, timely and targeted" fiscal response to the Covid-19 outbreak, and the BoE's accompanying stimulus measures, won't prevent GDP from falling over the next couple of months.

12 Mar 2020 The ECB will Deliver, a Rate Cut, More QE and TLTROs are Coming (Publication Centre)

The Fed paved the way with a 50bp emergency rate cut on March 3, with more to come.

12 March 2018 January Data Point to Slower GDP Growth in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Last week's official data supported our forecast that GDP growth likely will slow further in Q1, suggesting that a May rate hike is not the sure bet that markets assume.

12 December 2018 Mexico's Leading Indicators Signal a Challenging Near-term Outlook (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy is not accelerating, but it is holding up very well in difficult circumstances, with rising domestic political risk and stifling interest rates.

12 December 2018 China's Monetary Conditions are Still Tightening (Publication Centre)

China's M2 growth stabilised in November, at 8.0% year-over-year, matching the October rate.

11 October 2018 Armageddon on Hold China Still Passes the Debt Stress Tests (Publication Centre)

We have recently looked at China's capacity to grow its way out of the debt overhang--see here--and whether last year's deleveraging can be sustained; see here.

11 October 2018 Italy's Government is Picking a Fight with Both Markets and the EU (Publication Centre)

Base effects were the key driver of yesterday's upbeat industrial production headline in Italy.

11 October 2018 Weak GDP in August Sets the Tone for the Rest of this Year (Publication Centre)

The stagnation of GDP in August, following five consecutive month-to-month gains, confirms that the economy's momentum in prior months was simply weather-related.

11 Sept 2019 AMLO Delivers Fiscally Responsible Plans, but Some Details are Shaky (Publication Centre)

This week, Mexico's government unveiled its 2020 fiscal budget proposal.

11 October 2017 Weak GDP Growth in Q3 Suggests a November Hike isn't a Done Deal (Publication Centre)

The Office for National Statistics yesterday released the last major batch of output data before the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP is published on October 25, just one week before the MPC's key meeting.

11 October 2017 Japan's Current Account Surplus to Remain Stable in 2018 (Publication Centre)

Japan's official seasonally adjusted current account surplus rose to ¥2.27T in August from ¥2.03T in July. But we don't trust the seasonals, and our adjustment model shows the surplus fell slightly, to ¥1.91T in August. A further small decline likely is coming in Q4.

11 Oct 2019 Inflation Surprises to the Downside in September: Rate Cuts Loom (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation numbers across the biggest economies in LatAm have surprised to the downside, strengthening the case for further monetary easing.

11 Oct 2019 It's a Close Call, but we Still Think Germany was in Recession in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic reports in the Eurozone were ugly.

11 Oct 2019 Q3 GDP Set to Grow at Double the Rate Anticipated by the MPC (Publication Centre)

The latest GDP data continue to show that the economy is holding up well, despite the Brexit saga.

11 Sept 2019 Small Firms are Nervous about the Future, but no Meltdown, Yet (Publication Centre)

The August NFIB survey of activity and sentiment at small businesses was soft, but it could have been worse.

11 Sept 2019 The Labour Market no Longer Looks Bulletproof (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at July's labour market report gives no cause for alarm. The headline, three-month average, unemployment rate returned to 3.8% in July, after edging up to 3.9% in June.

12 Aug 2019 A Looming Currency War Adds to the ECB's Dovish Convictions (Publication Centre)

The escalation in the U.S.-Chinese trade wars has understandably pushed EZ economic data firmly into the background while we have been resting on the beach.

12 Aug 2020 The Downturn in Employment is Only Half-way Complete (Publication Centre)

We continue to take little comfort from the small decline in the Labour Force Survey measure of employment in the first half of this year.

12 Dec 2019 China's Economic Targets will Remain a Political Affair for 2020 (Publication Centre)

China concludes its annual Central Economic Work Conference today, where the economic targets and the agenda for next year are set.

12 April 2019 Inflation in Brazil Jumped in Q1, but Temporary Factors are to Blame (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil surprised to the upside this week, with a sharp rebound that looks alarming at face value.

12 April 2018 Q1 Slowdown Leaves a May Rate Hike Hanging in the Balance (Publication Centre)

February's industrial production and construction output data leave us little choice but to revise down our forecast for quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q1 to 0.2%, from 0.3% previously.

11 Sept 2020 Korea's August Jobs Surprise was all Luck, Look for a Second Wave Hit (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate plunged unexpectedly in August, to 3.2%--the lowest in a year--from 4.2% in July, defying expectations for no change and the renewed pressure on the economy from the second wave of Covid-19.

11 Sept 2020 The ECB Just Raised the Bar for a Boost to PEPP, Significantly (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the ECB conformed to consensus expectations yesterday by leaving its policy stance unchanged.

11 September 2018 July's Strong-Looking GDP Growth Rate Will Be This Year's Peak (Publication Centre)

Markets rightly interpreted yesterday's above consensus GDP report as having little impact on the outlook for monetary policy.

12 September 2017 Stronger Mexican Manufacturing Overshadowed by Weak Mining (Publication Centre)

Industrial activity in Mexico had a very poor start to the third quarter. Output plunged 1.0% month-to- month in July, the biggest drop since May 2015, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -1.5%, from -0.2% in June.

12 September 2018 The MXN Remains Resilient, but Can it Withstand Broad EM Pressure (Publication Centre)

Mexico has been one of LatAm's highlights in terms of financial markets and currency performance in recent months.

13 November 2017 Chinese Producer Price Increases Are Finally Slowing (Publication Centre)

Overall, the Chinese October data paint a picture of continued weakness in trade, with PPI inflation still high but the rate of increase finally slowing.

13 November 2018 Argentina's Cyclical Stabilization Continues 2019 Likely Will be Better (Publication Centre)

The sharp currency sell-off in Q2 and Q3, the financial crisis and tighter monetary and fiscal policies have pushed the Argentinian economy under stress since Q2.

13 November 2018 Will Poor Sentiment and Political Uncertainty Knock EZ Investment (Publication Centre)

The outlook for private investment in the Eurozone has deteriorated this year, especially in manufacturing.

13 October 2017 Japan's Commodity-Driven PPI Inflation Hits Consumer Goods (Publication Centre)

Japanese PPI inflation continues to be driven mainly by imported metals and energy price inflation. Metals, energy, power and water utilities, and related items, account for nearly 30% of the PPI.

13 Nov 2019 The Labour Market isn't Weak Enough to Warrant More Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The rate of deterioration in the labour market remains gradual enough for the MPC to hold back from cutting Bank Rate over the coming months.

13 Nov 2019 Japan's Pending Stimulus Marks a Return to the Bad Old Days (Publication Centre)

PM Abe last week asked the cabinet to put together a package of measures in a 15-month budget aimed at bolstering GDP growth through productivity enhancement, in addition to the shorter-term goal of disaster recovery.

13 March 2019 Brexit Uncertainty Set to Continue into Q2, but the Economy Can Cope (Publication Centre)

As we go to press, Mrs. May's last-minute scramble to Strasbourg appears to have failed to persuade enough rebels to back the government.

13 May 2019 Poor Data in Mexico are Gradually Setting the Stage for Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

External and domestic shocks in Mexico over the last two years, including the "gasolinazo", NAFTA renegotiation and the presidential election, have put the country's financial metrics under severe stress and pushed inflation to cyclical highs.

13 May 2020 Ugly Data in Mexico Continue to Set the Stage for Further Rate Cuts (Publication Centre)

More depressing economic numbers in LatAm have been released in recent days, and high frequency data continue to show a near-term bleak outlook.

13 Sept 2019 Korea's Jobs Surprise... the Higher they Rise, the Harder they Fall (Publication Centre)

Korea's jobs report for August was a stonker, with unemployment plunging to 3.1%, from 4.0% in July, marking the lowest rate in more than five years.

13 September 2017 Hurricane Reconstruction and Clean-up will Lift PPI, but not Yet (Publication Centre)

The surge in gasoline prices triggered by refinery outages after Hurricane Harvey came much too late to push up the August PPI, but gas prices had risen before the storm so the headline PPI will be stronger than the core.

14 August 2017 China's Slowdown Surprised Japan, Inventories to Boost Q2 GDP (Publication Centre)

Japanese domestic demand probably strengthened in Q2, with both private consumption and fixed investment accelerating. Trade and inventories are the key swing components for GDP growth.

14 August 2018 Turkey's Meltdown is no Threat to the U.S. Economy, or Banks (Publication Centre)

Turkey has all the problems you don't want to see in an emerging market when the U.S. is raising interest rates.

14 December 2016 Labour Data Set to Show a Clearer Deteriorating Trend (Publication Centre)

Today's labour market figures likely will bring further signs that firms are recruiting more cautiously and limiting pay awards, due to still-elevated economic uncertainty.

14 Aug 2019 Labour Market Data Point to Higher Rates if a No-Deal Brexit is Averted (Publication Centre)

Another month, another strong set of labour market data which undermine the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate, provided a no-deal Brexit is avoided.

14 Aug 2019 Japanese Policymakers Shouldn't take Domestic Demand For Granted (Publication Centre)

Japan's Q2 GDP was driven by the twin pillars of private consumption and capex.

13 September 2017 The French Labour Market is on the Up. Will Reforms Follow? (Publication Centre)

In theory, the headline labour market data in France should be a source of comfort and support for the new government.

13 September 2018 China's Money Headlines Tell an Old Story Conditions are Loosening (Publication Centre)

China's M2 growth slowed to 8.2% year-over-year in August, from 8.5% in July

14 Apr 2020 Coronavirus Infections Stabilising in DM, but LatAm is Way Behind (Publication Centre)

Last week, while we were taking our spring break at home, markets behaved relatively well in LatAm.

13 Mar 2020 Mr. Trichet's Infamous 2011 Policy Mistake Just Got Bested (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's ECB meeting was a tragedy in two acts. Markets were initially underwhelmed by the concrete measures unveiled, and they were then shell-shocked by Ms. Lagarde's performance in the press conference.

13 Mar 2020 Market Meltdown Makes Further MPC Easing Likely on March 26 (Publication Centre)

The measures to support the economy through the coronavirus crisis, unveiled by policymakers on Budget day, exceeded expectations.

13 Feb 2020 Could Inventory Rundowns Scupper the Q1 GDP Pick-up? (Publication Centre)

Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth last year was buffeted by the accumulation, and subsequent depletion, of inventories, around the two Brexit deadlines in March and October.

13 Feb 2020 Japan's M2 Still Points to a Growth Slowdown, Regardless of the Virus (Publication Centre)

Japan's money and credit data have shown signs of life in recent months, but that's all set to change quickly, due to the disruptions caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus.

13 February 2017 What Would it Take to Persuade the Fed to Hike in March? (Publication Centre)

Our argument that rates could rise as soon as March has always been contingent on two factors, namely, robust labor market data and a degree of clarity on the extent of fiscal easing likely to emerge from Congress. On the first of these issues, the latest evidence is mixed.

13 Jan 2020 Labor Market Strength Means no Need for the Fed to Ease this Year (Publication Centre)

Here's the bottom line: U.S. businesses appear to have over-reacted to the impact of the trade war in their responses to most surveys, pointing to a serious downturn in economic growth which has not materialized.

13 Feb 2020 Core CPI Likely Back on Trend, Risks in Rent and Healthcare Persist (Publication Centre)

The underlying trend in the core CPI is rising by just under 0.2% per month, so that has to be the starting point for our January forecast.

13 Feb 2020 A Double-Dip Recession on the Menu for Italy's in Q1 (Publication Centre)

The fact that Italy's economy is in poor shape will not surprise anyone following the euro area, but the advance Q4 GDP headline was astonishingly poor all the same.

12 September 2018 Wage Growth Won't Remain Above 3% this Year, Despite July's Leap (Publication Centre)

It's tempting to conclude that the pick-up in year over-year growth in average weekly wages, excluding bonuses, to a three-year high of 3.1% in July, from 2.8% in June, signals that employees' bargaining power has strengthened and that a sustained wage recovery now is under way.

13 December 2018 China's November Activity Data are Set to Disappoint (Publication Centre)

China's October activity data showed signs of the infrastructure stimulus machine sputtering into life. Consensus expectations appear to hold out for a continuation into November, but we think the numbers will be disappointing.

13 December 2018 The Rise in Jobless Claims is Convincing Evidence of... Not Much (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, the upturn in initial jobless claims since late September appears to signal a softening in the economy.

13 Jan 2020 Mexico's Weak Economic Activity Will Push Core Inflation Down (Publication Centre)

Thursday's CPI report in Mexico showed that inflation is edging lower. We are confident that it will continue to fall consistently during Q1, thanks chiefly to the subpar economic recovery, low inertia and the effect of the recent MXN rebound.

13 Jan 2020 Your Monthly Reminder that the French Economy is Doing Fine (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing data delivered another upside surprise last week, following the solid numbers in Germany; see here. French industrial production rose slightly in November, by 0.3% month-to-month, extending the gains from an upwardly-revised 0.5% rise in October.

13 June. 2016 Banxico's Dilemma: Help the Recovery or Support the MXN? (Publication Centre)

Markets are still discounting Banxico rate increases in the near term, despite the fact that Mexico's inflation is under control. Unless the MXN goes significantly above 18.7 per USD in the near term, or activity accelerates, we see little scope for rate increases until after the Fed hikes. After May's soft U.S. payrolls, and in light of the economic and financial risk posed by the U.K. referendum, we think a hike this week is unlikely.

13 Mar 2020 LatAm in Peril as the Virus Drives Markets into Panic Mode (Publication Centre)

LatAm governments and policymakers are bracing for a more dramatic and longer virus-led downturn than initially expected.

13 Mar 2020 Lift from Anti-Covid Jobs in Korea won't Last, the BoK will Cut in April (Publication Centre)

The effects of Covid-19--both negative and positive--on Korea's labour market certainly were felt in February.

13 June 2019 Let's Take a Minute to Cheer the Strengthening French Economy (Publication Centre)

On all accounts, growth in France has been modest in the past six-to-12 months, but in relative terms, the French economy is slowly but surely asserting itself as one of the key engines of growth in the EZ.

13 June 2018 Mexico's Manufacturing Activity in April was Weak, but it Will Improve (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial recovery, which began in late Q4, lost momentum at the start of the second quarter.

13 January 2017 BCB to Continue Easing Rapidly, Amid Falling Inflation (Publication Centre)

Brazil's central bank started the year firing on all cylinders. The Copom surprised markets on Wednesday by delivering a bold 75bp rate cut, bringing the Selic rate down to 13.0%. In October and November, the Copom eased by only 25bp, but inflation is now falling rapidly and consistently. The central bank said in its post-meeting communiqué that conditions have helped establish a "new rhythm of easing", assuming inflation expectations hold steady.

13 July 2017 Don't Extrapolate from May's Uptick in Basic Wage Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's labour market data gave sterling a shot in the arm on t wo counts. First, the headline, three-month average, unemployment rate fell to just 4.5% in May, from 4.6% in April.

13 July 2020 Inflation in Brazil is Tame, Mexico's Industrial Recession Continues (Publication Centre)

Friday's June inflation data in Brazil confirmed that the ripples from the worst of the Covid shock were still being felt at the end of the quarter.

11 Nov 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Trade, but don't Get too Excited (Publication Centre)

China's October foreign trade headlines beat expectations, but the year-over-year numbers remain grim, with imports falling 6.4%, only a modest improvement from the 8.5% tumble in September.

11 May 2020 Still No Signs of a Rebound in the EZ, but that Should Change Soon (Publication Centre)

Last week finished as it started, with more depressing economic numbers in the Eurozone, this time from manufacturing in the core economies.

1 November 2017 Rising Industrial Output Will Lift Chile's IMACEC, Jobs Wil Follow (Publication Centre)

Industrial output in Chile struggled late in the third quarter, falling 1.3% month-to-month in September. The year-over-year rate, calendar and seasonally adjusted, rose 2.4% in September, down from a revised 5.3% in August.

1 November 2017 Will the Fed Upgrade its View on Growth Today? (Publication Centre)

The Fed will do nothing today, but the FOMC's statement will re-affirm the intention to continue its "gradual" tightening.

1 November 2017 Will the PMIs Show the Economy Resilient to the Looming Rate Hike? (Publication Centre)

This week's manufacturing, construction and services PMIs for October will demonstrate how well the economy is coping with the prospect of higher interest rates.

1 November. 2016 The Recovery in Mexico is Solid, Hampered By Weak Mining (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy grew 1.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, the fastest pace since 2014, following a 0.2% contraction in Q2, according to the preliminary report published yesterday.

1 November 2016 Will Core PCE Inflation hit 2% This Year? (Publication Centre)

In the absence of an unexpected surge in auto sales or a sudden burst of unseasonably cold weather, lifting spending on utilities, fourth quarter consumption is going to struggle to rise much more quickly than the 2.1% annualized third quarter increase.

1 Nov 2019 The Easing Cycle in Brazil is Nearly Over, Chile's Public Chaos Continues (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- COPOM--voted unanimously on Wednesday to cut the Selic rate by 50bp to 5.00%, as expected.

1 May 2019 Uncertainty in Mexico Triggered a Sharp Economic Slowdown in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q1 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was under severe pressure at the start of the year.

1 May 2020 Mexico's GDP Collapsed in Q1, Even Before the Full Hit From Covid-19 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q1 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was under severe pressure at the start of the year. GDP fell by 1.6% quarter- on-quarter, the biggest drop since mid-2009, well below market expectations and following a 0.1% drop in Q4.

1 Nov 2019 New Forecasts to Show Government on Course to Break its Fiscal Rule (Publication Centre)

The Office for Budget Responsibility has decided to press ahead with the publication of new fiscal forecasts on November 7, despite the government's decision to postpone the Budget until after the next election.

1 Oct 2019 Brazilian Assets Performed Well in Late Q3, Despite High External Risk (Publication Centre)

Brazilian assets were hit in Q3 by global external challenges, while domestic fundamentals gradually improved.

1 October 2018 The 14-year High in the ISM Likely Can't Hold, Expect a Correction (Publication Centre)

The case for believing that August's unexpected 14-year high in the ISM manufacturing index was a fluke is pretty straightforward, and it has both short and medium-term elements.

10 August 2017 Chinese Producer Price Inflation is Proving Sticky (Publication Centre)

Chinese PPI inflation was unchanged at 5.5% in July; it had been expected to rise modestly. Officially, inflation peaked at 7.8% in February, but we think this peak was artificially high, thanks to seasonal effects. The slowing in PPI inflation since the peak appears to suggest that monthly price gains have slowed sharply. We find little evidence to support this.

10 Dec 2019 Well-behaved Inflation in Mexico and Colombia, A Relief for Policymakers (Publication Centre)

Recent inflation and activity data in Mexico were dovish.

10 December 2018 EZ Consumption Slowed Sharply in Q3, is a Q4 Rebound Coming? (Publication Centre)

Friday was a busy day in the Eurozone. The final and detailed GDP report confirmed that growth in the euro area slowed to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, from 0.4% in Q2, with the year-over-year rate slipping by 0.6 percentage points to 1.6%, just 0.1pp below the first estimate.

10 December 2018 Fires, Noise and Hurricanes Hit November Payrolls, not Tariffs (Publication Centre)

The softening in payroll growth in November appears mostly to be a story about short-term noise, rather than a sign that tariffs are hurting or that the broader economy is slowing.

10 Aug 2020 June Data to Mark the Start of the Surge in Unemployment (Publication Centre)

This week's labour market data likely will show that the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme did not prevent a rising tide of redundancies in response to Covid-19.

1 September. 2016 Will Construction Rebound in Q3, Despite Weaker Jobs Numbers? (Publication Centre)

Last fall and winter, when the weather was warmer than usual--thanks largely to El Nino--construction employment rocketed. Between October and March, job gains averaged 36K, compared to an average of 20K per month over the previous year. When these strong numbers began to emerge, we expected to see a parallel acceleration in construction spending.

1 Sep 2020 Decent Data Today won't Change the Deteriorating Q4 Outlook (Publication Centre)

Today brings a raft of data which mostly will look quite positive but will do nothing to assuage our fears over a sharp slowdown in growth in the fourth quarter.

1 Sep 2020 Don't Expect LatAm's Output to Reach Pre-Covid Levels this Year (Publication Centre)

The worst of the pandemic seems to be over in many countries in LatAm, allowing a gradual reopening of their economies.

1 September 2017 Expect Strong August Payrolls, but Calendar Distortions will hit Wages (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators all point to a solid August payroll number. Survey-based measures of the pace of hiring signal a 200K-plus increase, and jobless claims--a proxy for the pace of gross layoffs--are at a record low as a share of the workforce.

1 May 2018 Mexico's Economy Rebounded in Q1, Services Fired on all Cylinders (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's first estimate of Q1 GDP in Mexico confirmed that growth was resilient at the start of the year, despite the lingering hit to confidence from domestic and external threats.

1 March 2019 Slightly Disappointing Brazil Q4 GDP Data Point to Greater Slack (Publication Centre)

Brazil's GDP growth slowed to just 0.1% quarter- on-quarter in Q4, from a downwardly-revised 0.5% in Q3.

1 April 2019 Recent Retail Sales Data Make Little Sense, Noise is Swamping the Signal (Publication Centre)

The underlying U.S. consumer story, hidden behind a good deal of recent noise, is that the rate of growth of spending is reverting to the trend in place before last year's tax cuts temporarily boosted people's cashflow.

1 April 2019 The BCCh Finally Admits that the Economy is not Overshooting (Publication Centre)

Chile's central bank left its policy rate on hold last Friday at 3.0%, in line with market expectations, amid easing inflationary pressures and a struggling economy.

1 August 2018 Expect a Placeholder Statement from the FOMC Today (Publication Centre)

The Fed shifted its stance significantly in June, so we're expecting only trivial changes in today's statement.

1 December 2017 The ISM Manufacturing Index is set to Drop, but the Trend Remains Firm (Publication Centre)

All the regional PMI and Fed business surveys we follow suggest that today's national ISM manufacturing report for November will be weaker than in October

1 Apr 2020 Hold Your Horses... A V-Shaped Recovery in China isn't Secured, Yet (Publication Centre)

China's official PMIs for March surprised well to the upside, cheering markets across Asia.

1 Apr 2020 Healthy Pre-Virus Balance Sheets Enhance Recovery Prospects (Publication Centre)

The Q4 national accounts show that the economy lost further momentum at the end of last year, in the face of unprecedented levels of political uncertainty.

03 October. 2016 The Economy's Near-Term Resilience Has Brittle Foundations (Publication Centre)

Last week's official data unequivocally indicated that the Brexit vote has not had a detrimental impact on the economy yet.

1 Apr 2020 ADP Likely to Capture the Leading Edge of the Virus Hit to Jobs (Publication Centre)

Today's March ADP employment report likely will catch the leading edge of the wave of job losses triggered by the coronavirus.

1 Apr 2020 Brazil and Chile Pre-Covid Data were Solid, but the Good News won't Last (Publication Centre)

Data released this week in LatAm are the last calm before the coronavirus storm.

1 December 2017 Will the Improvement in Brazil's External Accounts Continue? (Publication Centre)

External conditions continue to favour Brazil. The recovery in domestic demand in the world's major economies, particularly the rebound in business investment, has driven a gradual revival of global exports.

1 February 2018 China PMIs Distorted by Holiday E ects, Missing the Curbs Impact (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs have softened in Q4. Indeed, we think the indices understate the slowdown in real GDP growth in Q4, as anti-pollution curbs were implemented. More positively, though, real GDP growth should rebound in Q1 as these measures are loosened.

1 June 2020 Eurozone Consumption Will Slump in Q2, but the Bottom is In (Publication Centre)

Friday's economic data in the euro area provided the first piece of evidence of the slump in Q2 GDP, but added to the picture of a relatively resilient German economy.

1 March 2017 The Soaring Trade Deficit is set to Constrain First Quarter Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's wall of data told us a bit about where the economy likely is going, and a bit about how it started the first quarter. The January trade and inventory data were disappointing, but the February Chicago PMI and consumer confidence reports were positive.

1 March 2018 The PM's Inevitable Capitulation is Still a Way Off ,Clouding Sterling's Outlook (Publication Centre)

Sterling fell to $1.38, from $1.39, in the hour following the EU's publication of a draft Article 50 withdrawal treaty, which set out the practical consequences of the principles the U.K. agreed to in December.

1 July 2020 Q1 GDP Weaker than First Thought, Amid Rapid Consumer Retrenchment (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's national accounts showed that the downturn in the economy on the eve of the Covid-19 outbreak was sharper than first estimated.

1 July 2020 It's Official... Risks of Covid Clusters Don't Jeopardise China's Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's economy looks to have shrugged off the supposed "second wave" of Covid-19, sparked by a cluster in Beijing's largest wholesale market for fruit and veg, looking at June's PMIs.

1 February 2019 The Mexican Economy Slowed in Q4 Can it Rebound in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's first estimate of full-year 2018 GDP in Mexico indicates that growth lost momentum in Q4.

1 July 2019 Brazil's Inflation Report Opened the Door for Rate Cuts as Early as July (Publication Centre)

Recent economic weakness in Brazil, particularly in domestic demand, and the ongoing deterioration of confidence indicators, have strengthened the case for interest rate cuts.

1 July 2020 Brazil's Job Market is Under Strain, despite a Resilient-looking Headline (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday showed that the labour market in Brazil looks relatively resilient to the collapse in economic activity.

10 Feb 2020 December GDP Set to Confirm that the Economy Stagnated in Q4 (Publication Centre)

We can't quibble with the consensus that GDP likely rose by 0.2% month-to-month in December, reversing only two-thirds of November's drop.

2 Dec 2019 Business Sentiment Likely has Hit Bottom, but Hard Data Still Softening (Publication Centre)

We're reasonably happy with the idea that business sentiment is stabilizing, albeit at a low level, but that does not mean that all the downside risk to economic growth is over.

11 December 2017 Will Fiscal and Brexit News Prompt More Rate Hike Talk from the MPC? (Publication Centre)

The MPC was a little irked by the markets' reaction to its November meeting.

11 December 2018 Lacklustre October GDP is the Final Straw for February Rate Hike Bets (Publication Centre)

The combination of sluggish GDP growth in October and news that the Prime Minister will attempt to renegotiate the terms of the Brexit backstop, most likely pushing back the key vote in parliament until January, has extinguished any lingering chance that the MPC might be in a position to raise Bank Rate at its February meeting.

11 Feb 2020 Mexico's Leading Indicators Point to a Modest Upturn, but Risks Abound (Publication Centre)

Mexico's latest forward-looking indicators are showing tentative signs of stabilisation in the wake of recent evidence that growth slowed quicker than markets have been expecting.

11 Feb 2020 Phase One Trade Deal Trumped the Virus in China's January PPI (Publication Centre)

The clear threat to demand posed by the coronavirus and China's efforts at containment have sent a shock wave through commodities markets.

11 Dec 2019 Recession Risks Remain Low, Despite Stagnant GDP in October (Publication Centre)

Markets rightly placed little weight on October's below-consensus GDP report yesterday, and still think that the chances of the MPC cutting Bank Rate within the next six months are below 50%.

11 Dec 2019 Mexico's Leading Indicators Still Signal Tough Near-term Prospects (Publication Centre)

Recent activity data in Mexico have been soft and leading indicators still point to challenging near-term prospects, due mainly to relatively high domestic political risk, stifling interest rates and difficult external conditions.

10 September 2018 The Payroll Blip is Over, Expect Further Labor Market Tightening (Publication Centre)

Normal service appears to have resumed in August, with payrolls rising by 201K, very close to the 196K average over the previous year.

11 Aug 2020 Britain's Recovery Likely Quickened in June, but Still Lagged its Peers (Publication Centre)

We expect June's GDP data, released on Wednesday, to show that the economic recovery gathered momentum in June, having got off to a faltering start in May.

11 Dec 2019 French Manufacturing is Headed for a Soft Q4, Despite a Solid Start (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing in France remained on the front foot at the start of Q4.

11 Feb 2020 The Coronavirus will test the Policy Put's Effect on EZ Equities (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Sentix investor sentiment survey provided the first glimpse of conditions on the ground in the EZ economy in the wake of the coronavirus scare.

11 Feb 2020 Weather Boost to January Payrolls won't Fully Reverse in February (Publication Centre)

A reader pointed out Friday that the standard measurement of the impact of the weather on January payrolls--the number of people unable to work due to the weather, less the long-term average--likely overstated the boost from the extremely mild temperatures.

11 June 2020 Anatomy of the Covid-19 Crash in the French Economy (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's sole economic report in the Eurozone closed the book on the initial Covid-19 shock in French manufacturing.

11 Mar 2020 Chinese PPI Deflation is Back, But Should Disappear by Q4 (Publication Centre)

Collapsing oil prices add fresh deflationary pressure on China.

11 Mar 2020 Covid-19 has a Strong Grip on Italy, it will be Costly to Beat it (Publication Centre)

It's still unclear how exactly Covid-19 will impact the euro area as a whole, but little doubt now remains that Italy's economy is in for a rough ride.

11 June 2019 April Data Point to Flat GDP in Q2, But Q3 Will be Much Better (Publication Centre)

April's GDP data give a grim firs t impression, though the details provide reassurance that the economy isn't on the cusp of a recession.

11 January 2019 How to Read the Recent Collapse in the EZ Economic Data (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the euro area are still slipping and sliding.

11 Feb 2020 What's Happened to the Wage- Price Link? (Publication Centre)

At first glance, the continued weakness of domestically-generated inflation, despite punchy increases in labour costs, is puzzling.

11 February 2019 CPI Inflation Likely Fell Slightly Below The 2% Target in January (Publication Centre)

Analysts' forecasts for January's consumer prices report, released on Wednesday, are unusually dispersed.

11 February 2019 Net Exports Probably Boosted German GDP Growth in Q4 (Publication Centre)

German exports flatlined for most of 2018, driving the trade surplus down by 7.3% amid still-solid growth in imports.

10 September 2018 Japan's Big Wage Increases Point to Robust Q3 Private Consumption (Publication Centre)

Japan's labour cash earnings rose by 1.5% year-over- year in July, a strong result in the Japanese context, if it hadn't been preceded by the 3.6% leap in June.

10 Sept 2020 Labour Market Data to Show Jobs Downturn Gathering Pace in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The data calendar is so congested next week that it makes sense to preview Tuesday's labour market report early.

10 January 2019 We have Seen this Movie Before in French Consumer Confidence (Publication Centre)

History is repeating itself in France. When the Republican Nicolas Sarkozy defeated the Socialist candidate Ségolène Royal in April 2007, consumer sentiment briefly soared to a six-year high, before plunging to an all-time low a year later.

10 July 2018 Will the Government's New Brexit Plans Boost Business Investment? (Publication Centre)

Business investment has held up better than most economists--ourselves included--expected after the Brexit vote.

10 July 2020 Brazil's Retail Activity Improved in May, but the Overall Picture is Grim (Publication Centre)

This week real data in Brazil supported the idea that the worst of the recession is likely over, but a V-shaped rebound is not in the cards.

10 July 2020 GDP Likely Retraced Just One- Fifth of its Covid-19 Slump in May (Publication Centre)

We expect May's GDP report, released on Tuesday, to provide an early blow to hopes that the economy will embark on a V-shaped recovery this year.

10 January 2019 Risks to the Consensus for November GDP Lie to the Upside (Publication Centre)

It's hardly surprising that the consensus forecast for month-to-month growth in November GDP, released on Friday, is a mere 0.1%, given the flow of downbeat business surveys.

10 January 2019 Fed Doves Sound, Well, Dovish... but don't Ignore the Warning from Evans (Publication Centre)

The latest batch of FOMC speakers yesterday, together with the December minutes--participants said "the committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming"--offered nothing to challenge the idea, now firmly embedded in markets, that the next rate hike will come no sooner than June, if it comes at all.

10 Feb 2020 Temporary Shocks Causes Volatility in LatAm Inflation, Trends are Stable (Publication Centre)

Inflation data in Brazil, Mexico and Chile last week reinforced our view that interest rates will remain on hold, or be cut, over the coming meetings. The recent fall in oil prices, and the weakness of domestic demand, will offset recent volatility caused by the FX sell-off, driven mostly by the coronavirus story.

10 Jan 2020 Carney's Rate Cut Meditation Indicates Normalisation is Distant (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate in the first half of this year leapt to 50% yesterday, from 35%, following Mark Carney's speech.

10 Jan 2020 Payrolls Continuing to Outperform Surveys, Look for 190K in December (Publication Centre)

Our forecast of a solid 190K increase in headline December payrolls ignores our composite employment indicator, which usually leads by about three months and points to a print of just 50K or so.

10 June 2019 Industrial Production in the EZ will Slow Significantly in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Friday's data provided the first bit of evidence that manufacturing in the Eurozone is headed for a slowdown in Q2, partly reversing the strength in Q1.

10 Mar 2020 Heightened Uncertainty Persists in EM, as Oil Prices Continue to Fall (Publication Centre)

Most countries in LatAm are now fighting a complex global environment; a viral outbreak of biblical proportions and plunging oil prices, after last week's OPEC fiasco.

10 Oct 2019 Putting our Money Where Our Mouth is Can the EZ Outperform (Publication Centre)

Gloom and uncertainty are spreading across the global economy as we head into the final stretch of the year.

10 October 2018 Hurricane Michael Means Another "Soft" Payroll Number (Publication Centre)

Our hopes of a hefty rebound in payrolls in October, following the hurricane-hit September number, have been dashed by the imminent landfall of Hurricane Michael in Florida panhandle.

10 Sept 2019 July's GDP Rebound Rules Out Pre-Brexit Easing from the MPC (Publication Centre)

The pick-up in GDP in July is a re assuring sign that the economy is on course to grow at a solid rate in Q3, thereby substantially weakening the case for the MPC to cut Bank Rate before Britain's Brexit path is known.

10 May 2019 Underlying Core Inflation is Stable, Despite the Weak Q1 Core PCE (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, our forecast of higher core inflation by the end of this year is seriously challenged by the recent data.

10 May 2019 The PBoC will Stick to Loose Policy, Despite a Host of New Challenges (Publication Centre)

China's money and credit numbers for April were a mixed bag. M2 growth merely inched down, to 8.5% year-over-year, from 8.6% in March, keeping its gradual uptrend intact.

10 Mar 2020 It's Getting Sporty, a Brief Look at the Chaos in EZ Financial Markets (Publication Centre)

In this Monitor we'll let the data be, and try to make some sense of the recent market volatility from a Eurozone perspective, with an eye to the implications for the economy and policymakers' actions.

10 Mar 2020 Virus-related Collapse in Services Spending to Trigger Q2 GDP Drop (Publication Centre)

We're now starting to see clear signs in unofficial data that households are slashing their expenditure on discretionary services, in order to minimise their chances of catching the coronavirus.

10 May 2019 See No Evil, Hear No Evil in Today's U.S. China Trade Talks (Publication Centre)

As we head to press, investors are holding their breath over whether today's trade talks between the U.S. and China will be enough for Mr. Trump to step back from his pledge to increase tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods to 25%.

14 December 2018 Look Behind the Headlines for the Real Retail and Industrial Stories (Publication Centre)

We argued earlier this week that the data on the consumer economy are likely to be rather stronger than the industrial numbers.

10 Feb 2020 Job Gains Can't Be Sustained at January's Weather-Assisted Pace (Publication Centre)

The reported 225K jump in payrolls in January was even bigger than we expected, but it is not sustainable. The extraordinarily warm weather last month most obviously boosted job gains in construction, where the 44K increase was the biggest in a year

18 August 2017 Higher Core Inflation in the Eurozone Should be a No Brainer (Publication Centre)

Inflation data are known to defy economists' forecasts, but it should in principle b e straightforward to predict the cyclical path of EZ core inflation. It is the longest lagging indicator in the economy, and leading indicators currently signal that core inflation pressures are rising.

18 Dec 2019 Labour Market Data Remain Strong Enough to Keep Rate Cuts at Bay (Publication Centre)

The labour market remains healthy enough to persuade the MPC to keep its powder dry over the coming months.

18 Dec 2019 Modest Growth Ahead in 2020 for Domestic Eurozone Car Sales (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday added further evidence of a slow recovery in Eurozone auto sales.

18 Dec 2019 The BoJ will be Happy to Focus on the Positives this Thursday (Publication Centre)

The BoJ is likely to stay on hold this week for all its main policy settings.

17 September 2018 The EZ Output Gap Has Closed, But will Inflation Follow? (Publication Centre)

Last week's comments by Mr. Draghi--see here-- indicate that the ECB is increasingly confident that core inflation will continue to move slowly towards the target of "below, but close to 2%", despite elevated external risks, and marginally tighter monetary policy.

17 Sept 2019 August IP Likely Rebounded, but the Trend is Deteriorating (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing is in recession, with few signs yet that a floor is near, still less a recovery.

17 October 2018 Brazil's Presidential Second Round is Approaching is it a Done Deal (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian presidential election has remained in the spotlight in recent days and is the main driver of asset price volatility.

17 October 2018 The MPC Needn't Accelerate its Tightening Plans to Tame Wages (Publication Centre)

The stand-out news from August's labour market report was the pick-up in the headline three-month average rate of year-over-year growth in average weekly wages, excluding bonuses, to 3.1%--its highest rate since January 2009--from 2.9% in July.

17 October. 2016 Retail Sales are Noisy, but the Trend in Consumption Looks Solid (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the September retail sales report, we can be pretty sure that real consumers' spending rose at a 2¾% annualized rate in the third quarter, slowing from the unsustainable 4.3% jump. That would mean consumption contributed 1.9 percentage points to headline GDP growth.

18 Feb 2020 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Late Q4, but it Will Rebound in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively weak footing. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 0.3% month- to-month, pushing down the adjusted year-over- year rate to 0.3%, from a downwardly-revised 0.7% increase in November.

18 February 2019 A Solid End to 2018 for Colombia's Economy, no Threats, for Now (Publication Centre)

Colombia's December activity reports confirmed that quite strong retail sales last year were less accompanied by local production, which became only a minor driver of the economic recovery, as shown in our first chart.

18 Mar 2020 LatAm Central Banks Joining the Tide of Global Monetary Easing (Publication Centre)

The global coronavirus pandemic is hitting the LatAm economy at a particularly vulnerable time, following last year's stuttering economic recovery, temporary shocks in key economies and the effect of the global trade war.

18 Mar 2020 What is the Cost of Covering EZ Workers' Covid-19 Income Loss (Publication Centre)

Wage growth in the euro area slowed slightly last year, consistent with the rapid deceleration in economic growth since the end of 2017, though it remained robust overall.

18 March 2019 Beware the Easter Effect in EZ Core Inflation in March and April (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday confirmed that headline inflation in the Eurozone rose a bit last month, to 1.5% from 1.4% in January, but also that the core rate dipped by 0.1 percentage points, to 1.0%.

18 May 2020 GDP in Brazil and Colombia to Fall Even Further in Q2, Q3 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Data released on Friday confirmed an appalling end to the first quarter for the Brazilian and Colombian economies. In Brazil, the March IBC-Br, a monthly proxy for GDP, plunged 5.9% month-to-month, close to expectations.

18 Mar 2020 How Long Until the Labour Market Rolls Over? (Publication Centre)

The labour market was pretty robust before the coronavirus crisis.

18 July 2019 Construction in the EZ Slowed in Q2, Denting GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's economic data provided further evidence that GDP growth in the EZ economy slowed in Q2.

18 January 2018 Will the ECB's Real Reaction Function Please Stand Up? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone inflation data have been relatively calm in the past six months. The headline rate has been stable at about 1.5%, and the core rate has fluctuated closely around 1%.

18 January 2019 Manufacturing Output Likely Jumped in December Don't be Deceived (Publication Centre)

The monthly industrial production numbers are collected and released by the Fed, rather than the BEA, so today's December report will not be delayed by the government shutdown.

18 July 2018 Powell Says Everything's on Track Gradual Hike to Continue, "for now" (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell delivered no great surprises in his semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday, but he did hint, at least, at the idea that interest rates might at some point have to rise more quickly than shown in the current dot plot: "... the FOMC believes that - for now - the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate [our italics]."

17 Oct 2019 Korea's Q3 GDP Report to Highlight the Futility of the BoK's Second Cut (Publication Centre)

The Monetary Policy Board of the Bank of Korea voted yesterday to lower its policy base rate to 1.25%, from 1.50%.

17 May 2019 Brazil's Economy Faltered in Q1 a Flimsy Upturn is in Prospect (Publication Centre)

Economic data released on Wednesday underscored that Brazil was struggling at the end of the first quarter, strengthening our case that Q1 GDP fell 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, the first contraction since Q4 2016.

17 January 2018 Domestically-Generated Inflation Is Still Weak, Giving the MPC Time (Publication Centre)

The fall in CPI inflation to 3.0% in December, from 3.1% in November, likely marks the first step in its journey back to the 2% target.

17 January 2019 Special report: How Bad is China's Bad Debt, and can the Government Still Manage it? (Publication Centre)

In our daily Monitors we've talked about the four paths that we see for the Chinese economy over the medium-to-long term. First, China could make history and actively transition to private consumption-led growth.

17 July 2017 ASF Strength Implies Spiralling Financial Risk, not Strong GDP (Publication Centre)

China's money data, out last week, bode ill for real GDP growth in the second half. June M2 growth dipped to 9.4% year-over-year from 9.6% in May and 10.5% in April.

17 July 2017 Eurozone Consumers' Demand for New Cars is Slowing (Publication Centre)

Consumers' demand for cars slowed in the Eurozone at the end of the second quarter. New car registrations in the euro area rose 3.0% year-over-year in June, slowing dramatically from a 10.3% rise in May.

17 Jan 2020 Phase One Deal Puts a Grey Cloud Over End-2020, Silver Lining now (Publication Centre)

To avoid rocking the 2020 boat, the Phase One trade deal needed to be sufficiently vague, so that neither side, and particularly Mr. Trump, would have much cause to kick up a fuss around missed targets.

17 Jan 2020 Manufacturing is Stagnating, but a Modest H1 Upturn is a Fair Bet (Publication Centre)

The trend in manufacturing output probably is about flat, with no real prospect of any serious improvement in the near term.

17 Feb 2020 January CPI Inflation Set to Undershoot the MPC's Forecast (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation surprises look set to trigger larger- than-usual market reactions over the coming months, given that the MPC emphasised last month that it wants to see domestically-generated inflation rebound swiftly, after falling suddenly late last year, in order to justify keeping Bank Rate on hold.

17 February 2017 Slowing Real Incomes Threaten Spending (Publication Centre)

The rate of growth of real personal incomes is under sustained downward pressure, slowing to 2.1% year-over-year in December from 3.4% in the year to December 2015. In January, we think real income growth will dip below 2%, thanks to the spike in the headline CPI, reported Wednesday. Our first chart shows that the 0.6% increase in the index likely will translate into a 0.5% jump in the PCE deflator, generating the first month-to-month decline in real incomes since January last year.

17 Jan 2020 December's Retail Sales Report Will Dampen Rate Cut Speculation (Publication Centre)

The consensus forecast for a 0.6% month-to month rise in retail sales volumes in December--data released today--is far too timid.

17 July 2018 Powell Set to Re-affirm the "Gradual" Approach to Rates, for Now (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony today will likely re-affirm that policymakers still think "gradual" rate hikes are appropriate and that the risks to the economy remain "roughly balanced".

17 July 2019 Colombia's Outlook is Improving Domestic Demand is Solid (Publication Centre)

May's activity data underline the gradual recovery in Colombia's economic growth, following signs of weakness at the start of the year.

17 Mar 2020 There is Nothing Remotely Like Q1 in Historical Chinese Data (Publication Centre)

We lack an adjective sufficiently strong to describe China's February activity data.

17 March 2017 February's Manufacturing Data Flattered by Warm Weather? (Publication Centre)

The latest survey evidence strongly supports our view that momentum is building in the industrial economy, but the official production data continue to lag. Yesterday's March Philly Fed survey was remarkably strong, with the correction in the headline sentiment index -- inevitable, after February's 33-year high -- masking increases in all the subindexes.

17 May 2018 Japan has Paid for Breaking the Speed Limit in H1 Last Year (Publication Centre)

The Japanese GDP report yesterday contained substantial revisions to Q4. We had expected the Q1 contraction, but the revisions recast the health of the recovery, making the domestic demand performance look much less impressive recently, with the economy struggling since the burst of growth in the first half last year.

17 Mar 2020 Bolder Policy Action Required to Prevent a Prolonged Recession (Publication Centre)

Signs that the economy has been crippled by people's response to the Covid-19 outbreak continued to emerge yesterday.

17 June 2020 April's Decline in Employment is Just the Start (Publication Centre)

At first glance, the latest labour market data appear to be contradictory.

17 July 2019 Punchy Wage Gains are Tying the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

Labour costs are rising so quickly that the MPC cannot justify an "insurance" cut in Bank Rate to counteract the impending damage from Brexit uncertainty in the run-up to the October deadline.

17 July 2020 Andes' Economic Prospects Remain Grim, but they will Improve Soon (Publication Centre)

May's activity data in the Andes underline the severe hit from the pandemic on economic activity.

17 June 2019 Peak Trade War Might Already be Past, but Strong Nerves Needed (Publication Centre)

When economic historians look back at the bizarre trade war of 2018-to-19, we think they will see Tuesday June 4 as the turning point, after which the threats of fire and brimstone were taken much less seriously, and markets began to ponder life after tariffs.

18 Nov 2019 A Meaningful Recovery in Chinese Capex Growth is a Distant Prospect (Publication Centre)

China's investment slowdown went from worrying to frightening in October. Last week's fixed asset investment ex-rural numbers showed that year- to-date spending grew by 5.2% year-over-year in October, marking a further slowdown from 5.4% in the year to September.

18 Nov 2019 Colombia's Economy Remains the Star Performer in LatAm (Publication Centre)

Most of the Andean economies have been hit by the turmoil roiling the global economy in the past few quarters. But modest recovery in commodity prices in Q3, and relatively solid domestic fundamentals helped them to avoid a protracted slowdown in Q2 and most of Q3.

19 March 2018 Argentina's Recovery Continues, but the Rebound is Facing Setbacks (Publication Centre)

Argentina's Recovery Continues, but the Rebound is Facing Setbacks

19 March 2018 Will Rising Labor Participation Fix Everything this Year? (Publication Centre)

We need to take a closer look at the chance of a sustained rise in the labor participation rate, which is perhaps the single biggest risk to the idea that 2018 will be a good year for the stock market, with limited downside for Treasuries.

19 May 2017 Expect a Hike on June 14 Unless Financial Conditions Tighten, a Lot (Publication Centre)

The probability of a rate hike on June 14, as implied by the fed funds future, has dropped to 90%, from a peak of 99% on May 5.

19 Nov 2019 Chile's Economy Shifted into Higher Gear in Q3, it will Stall in Q4 and Q1 (Publication Centre)

Chile's Q3 GDP report, released yesterday, confirmed that the economy gathered speed in the third quarter, but this is now in the rearview mirror.

19 Mar 2020 What Else Can the Chancellor do to Reinforce the Eventual Recovery? (Publication Centre)

Chancellor Sunak announced further emergency support measures for the economy on Tuesday and pledged to do more soon.

19 June 2020 Weekly Gilt Purchases to Halve, Following the MPC's Miserly Meeting (Publication Centre)

The BoE has lived up to its reputation again as one of the most unpredictable central banks.

19 June 2018 Sales by Buy-to-Let Investors Won't Swamp the Market, For Now (Publication Centre)

The RICS Residential Market Survey caught our eye last week for reporting that new sale instructions to estate agents rose in May for the first month since February 2016.

19 June 2018 The Continuity of Colombia's Free- Market Model is Assured (Publication Centre)

Iván Duque, the conservative candidate for the Democratic Centre Party, won the presidential election held in Colombia on Sunday.

19 June 2020 Brazil's BCB is Determined to do Everything Possible to Boost Growth (Publication Centre)

Policymakers in Brazil and Chile took another big step this week in assuring markets that they won't hesitate to act in the fight against the virus.

19 Nov 2019 Italian GDP Growth is Rebounding, but at a Painfully Slow Pace (Publication Centre)

Italy's economy is still bumping along the bottom, after emerging from recession in the middle of last year.

19 October 2017 Slower Depletion of Job Market Slack Eases Pressure to Raise Rates (Publication Centre)

The rate that labour market slack is being absorbed has slowed, potentially giving the MPC breathing space to postpone the first rate rise beyond next month.

2 April 2019 Recent Data Confirm Argentina's Turnaround, but Politics is a Threat (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirm that the Argentinian economy finally is stabilizing.

2 Aug 2019 Brazil's Copom Cuts Rates and Hints More Easing is in the Pipeline (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian Central Bank's policy board-- Copom--voted unanimously on Wednesday to cut the Selic rate by 50bp to 6.0%.

14 Feb 2020 Banxico Cuts Rates, Brazil's Domestic Demand Eased in Q4 (Publication Centre)

It was no surprise that Banxico cut its policy rate by 25bp to 7.00% yesterday, following similar moves in August, September, November and December.

2 Apr 2020 Jobless Claims Likely to Hit Another New High, but they'll Fall Next Week (Publication Centre)

Last week's unprecedented surge in initial jobless claims, to 3,283K from 282K, prompted a New York Times front page for the ages; if you haven't seen it, click here.

2 Apr 2020 How Long Before the Government Lifts the Lockdown? (Publication Centre)

The duration and future scope of the current lockdown is the main uncertainty that U.K economic forecasters have to grapple with at present.

19 Sept 2019 EZ Headline and Core Inflation to Rebound Firmly Into Year-End (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed CPI data for August confirmed that inflation in the Eurozone stayed subdued over the summer.

19 September 2017 Colombia's Economy Finally Hits Bottom, but Recovery will be Slow (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this last week were upbeat, better than we expected, showing a significant pickup in manufacturing output and improving retail sales. Retail sales rose 3.1% year- over-year, after a modest 1.0% increase in June.

2 Apr 2020 EZ Manufacturing is Under Siege, But Help is Coming, we Hope (Publication Centre)

Within the space of two months, investors have gone from wondering whether the slowdown in manufacturing would spill-over into the rest of the EZ economy, to the realisation that the crunch in services is now driving the overall story on the economy.

19 July 2019 Politics is the Name of the Game in Mexico and Argentina (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economic and financial outlook is deteriorating rapidly and hopes of a gradual recovery over the next three-to-six months are fading away after AMLO's missteps in recent months.

19 July 2017 Peru's Economy is Recovering But Temporary Political Noise is a Drag (Publication Centre)

Following a challenging start to this year, Andean economic prospects are improving gradually, thanks to falling interest rates, lower inflation, relatively stable currencies and--in some cases--increased infrastructure spending.

18 October 2017 Housing Activity is Poised for a Hefty Q4 Rebound as Demand Rebounds (Publication Centre)

Today brings the September housing construction report, which likely will show that activity was depressed by the hurricanes.

18 Sept 2019 Can Investors Count on the EZ as Global Uncertainty Bites (Publication Centre)

Our colleagues have been telling some unpleasant stories recently.

18 Sept 2020 The ECB Will Struggle to Hold its Optimistic Line on Inflation (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's detailed EZ inflation data for August kick ed-off a period in which the numbers will be scrutinised more closely than usual.

19 August. 2016 Dear Fed, Please Don't Increase the Inflation Target. Thanks. (Publication Centre)

Everyone heard San Francisco Fed president Williams's suggestion Monday that central banks could raise their inflation targets in response to the sustained slow growth and lower-than-expected inflation of recent years. It's not clear, though, that markets grasped the scale of the increase he thinks might be appropriate.

18 Oct 2019 Food Inflation Woes Intensify in Asia, with No Sign Yet of Respite (Publication Centre)

Rapidly increasing food inflation is creating all sorts of dilemmas for policymakers in Asia's giants.

18 Oct 2019 Argentina's Presidential Vote will Restore the Dire Kirchner Dynasty (Publication Centre)

Argentinians are heading to the polls on Sunday October 27 and will likely turn their backs on the current president, Mauricio Macri.

18 Nov 2019 Manufacturing is Outperforming the ISM, Can it Last? (Publication Centre)

Some shoes never drop. But it would be unwise to assume that the steep plunge in manufacturing output apparently signalled by the ISM manufacturing index won't happen, just because the hard data recently have been better than the survey implied.

18 Nov. 2015 Weak Producer Price Inflation Won't Prevent CPI Rebound (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation held steady at -0.1% in October, matching its lowest rate since March 1960. We had expected the rate to tick down to -0.2%, but the rebound in clothing inflation in October, following a period of discounting in September, was larger than we had anticipated. Looking ahead, we can be fairly confident that CPI inflation will pic k up sharply over the coming months.

18 November. 2016 Banxico is the Victim of Trump- Related Collateral Damage (Publication Centre)

Mexico's central bank, Banxico, last night capitulated again, reacting to the depreciation of the MXN by increasing interest rates by 50bp--for the fourth time this year--to 5.25%.

19 Dec 2019 Another Poor Quarter Ahead for Construction in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy all but stalled at the start of Q4.

19 Dec 2019 Don't Expect China's LPR to Move Much, if at all, for December (Publication Centre)

The PBoC reduced its 14-day reverse repo by 5bp to 2.65% in a routine operation yesterday.

19 February 2018 Colombia's Economy is Improving, but Fell Short of Expectations in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Colombia's GDP growth was a poor 1.6% year-over- year in Q4, down from 2.3% in Q3, despite the oil recovery and the COP's rebound since mid-year. GDP rose a modest 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, after a 0.8% increase in Q3.

19 February 2019 Brazil's Momentum Slowed in Q4, but it Will Rebound Soon (Publication Centre)

Brazil's December economic activity index, released last week, showed that the economy ended the year on a relatively soft footing.

19 February 2019 How to Make Sense of Today's Eurozone Construction Data (Publication Centre)

Judging by the monthly production data, construction in the Eurozone slowed sharply in the second half of 2018.

19 Feb 2020 Investor Sentiment Data Signal a Hit to the PMIs, or Do They (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's German ZEW investor sentiment survey provided the first clear evidence of the coronavirus in the EZ survey data.

19 Feb 2020 Colombia's Economy is Resilient, but External Threats Have Risen (Publication Centre)

Colombia's GDP report, released last week, confirmed that it was the fastest growing economy in LatAm and everything suggests that it likely will lead the ranking again this year.

19 Dec 2019 The Philly Fed Likely is Still Outperforming, Treat with Caution (Publication Centre)

The next couple of rounds of business surveys will capture firms' responses to the Phase One trade deal agreed last week, though the news came too late to make much, if any, difference to the December Philly Fed report, which will be released today.

19 December 2016 How Much Support can Tourism Provide to the Economy? (Publication Centre)

The media abounds with anecdotal evidence of a pickup in domestic and inbound tourism following sterling's sharp depreciation, but the reality is that the weaker pound has not had a tangible positive impact yet.

19 December 2018 New Thinking on PBoC Rates Balance Tipping Toward a Cut (Publication Centre)

A PBoC rate cut is looking increasingly likely. Policy is already on the loosest setting possible without cutting rates, but the Bank has little to show for its marginal approach to easing, with M1 growth still languishing.

17 December 2018 Peru's Economy Will Remain the Outperformer in LatAm Next Year (Publication Centre)

Peru's central bank kept the reference rate unchanged at 3.5% at Thursday's meeting, in line with our view and market expectations.

19 Feb. 2016 Weak Manufacturing is a Serious Problem, for Manufacturers (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing does not consistently lead the rest of the economy. Neither does it consistently lag. On average, turning points in the rates of growth of manufacturing output and GDP are coincident, as our first chart clearly shows. But coincidence is not causality.

15 Apr 2020 Brazil's Economy will Rebound in Q3, but Bad Virus Policy is a Risk (Publication Centre)

The hard economic data in Brazil were relatively solid while we were off last week, supporting our view that the economy was experiencing a good spell at the start of the year just before the coronavirus hit.

15 April 2019 What Does the Art 50 Extension Say About the EU's Brexit View (Publication Centre)

The EU's decision to grant the U.K. an extension under Article 50, until October 31, reveals two key aspects of continental Europe's position on Brexit.

15 Aug 2019 Today's Data Wave Will be Split Strong Consumers, Weak Industry (Publication Centre)

Today brings an astonishing eight economic reports, so by the end of the wave of numbers we'll have a pretty good idea of how the economy performed in the first month of the third quarter.

15 August 2017 Weak Q2 for Mexico's Industrial Activity, but What Happens in Q3? (Publication Centre)

Last week's industrial report confirmed that the Mexican economy softened at the end of the second quarter. Industrial production was unchanged year- over-year in June, calendar-and seasonally adjusted, down marginally from +0.1% in May.

14 Sept 2020 The Recovery in GDP will Continue to Decelerate Through the Autumn (Publication Centre)

GDP data for July, released on Friday, showed that the economic recovery following the Covid-19 lockdown still does not look V-shaped, even though virtually all restrictions on economic activity had been lifted.

14 February 2017 Global Manufacturing Picks Up Pace, Are Good News for LatAm? (Publication Centre)

More evidence indicating that the recovery in global industrial activity is underway and gaining momentum- has poured in. In particular, trade data from China, one of LatAm's biggest trading partners, was stronger than the market expected last month. Both commodity import and export volumes increased sharply in January, and this suggests better economic conditions for China's key trading partners.

14 November 2018 China's Potential H1 Recovery Just Fizzled out... Before it Started (Publication Centre)

Credit to the Chinese authorities for sticking it out with the marginal approach to easing for so long... at least two quarters.

14 Oct 2019 RBI Beware... Inflation in India will Soon Flirt with the 4% Target (Publication Centre)

Today's CPI report from India should raise the pressure on the RBI to abandon its aggressive easing, which has resulted in 135 basis points worth of rate cuts since February.

14 Oct 2019 Resilient Consumption in Brazil, Manufacturing in Mexico Slowing (Publication Centre)

Hard data for Brazil and Mexico, released last week, support the case for further interest rate cuts.

15 August 2018 Supply Constraints Still aren't Biting, Despite Low Unemployment (Publication Centre)

The stand-out development in yesterday's labour market report was the drop in the he adline, three-month average, unemployment rate to just 4.0% in June--its lowest rate since February 1975--from 4.2% in May.

15 Jan 2020 Inflation in the Andean Economies Remains Low, but Policies will Differ (Publication Centre)

Inflation in the Andean economies ended 2019 well within central banks' objectives, despite many domestic and external challenges.

15 June 2020 Mexico's Industrial Collapse is Bottoming-Out, but Q3 will be Tough (Publication Centre)

Mexico's industrial recession deepened in April, though some leading indicators suggest that the worst is over as the economy gradually reopens. But downside risks have increased dramatically in recent weeks, as the pandemic seems to be gathering renewed strength.

15 June 2020 The Recovery in GDP will Lose Momentum as the Year Drags On (Publication Centre)

The economy will be a shadow of its former self over the remainder of this year, following the heavy pummelling from Covid-19.

15 May 2019 The Escalation of Trade Tensions Fans Concerns for LatAm's Upturn (Publication Centre)

LatAm assets did well in Q1, on the back of upbeat investor risk sentiment, low volatility in developed markets and a relatively benign USD.

15 July 2020 Sluggish Initial Virus Response to Blame for May's Meagre GDP Rise (Publication Centre)

The costs of the government's failure to lock down quickly in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, ultimately necessitating long-lasting restrictions, were visible in May's GDP figures.

15 July 2020 EZ Manufacturing Workers Face a Difficult Time in the Next Year (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ manufacturing data were slightly underwhelming, at least compared to expectations.

15 Jan 2020 It's Time to Allocate Serious Capital to Clean Energy in Europe (Publication Centre)

Eurozone investors should by now be accustomed to direct intervention in private financial markets by policymakers.

15 Jan 2020 The Rise in Continuing Jobless Claims is No Cause for Concern (Publication Centre)

The weekly jobless claims numbers are due Thursday, as usual, but in the wake of a flood of emails from readers, all asking a variant of the same question-- should we be worried about the rise in continuing jobless claims?--we want to address the issue now.

15 July 2019 Jump in EZ Industrial Output in May won't be Sustained (Publication Centre)

Manufacturers in the Eurozone stood tall mid-way through Q2, despite still-subdued leading indicators.

14 November 2018 Banxico Likely Will Hike Tomorrow Interventionist Threats are Growing (Publication Centre)

After recent interventionist moves and plans in Mexico from AMLO's incoming administration and his political party, uncertainty and soured sentiment are the name of the game.

14 November 2017 Mexico's Manufacturing Remains Resilient, but NAFTA Risk is High (Publication Centre)

LatAm's economies are starting to expand at a relatively healthy pace, inflation is more or less under control and near-term growth prospects are positive.

14 January 2019 Inflation in Brazil is Still Benign, but the Outlook Will Depend on Politics (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil ended 2018 under control, despite slightly overshooting expectations.

14 January 2019 November's Pick up in GDP Growth is Noise, not Signal (Publication Centre)

A cursory glance at November's GDP report gives the misleading impression that the U.K. economy is ticking over nicely, despite Brexit.

14 July 2020 India's Industrial Bounce won't get Much Help from Weak Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The year-over-year collapse of industrial production in India eased substantially in May, to -35%, from -58% in April, close to our -32% forecast.

14 July 2020 The Pandemic is Far from Over in the Andes, Prolonging the Economic Hit (Publication Centre)

The Johns Hopkins database shows a mixed coronavirus picture in the Andes, with the trend in new cases still rising in Argentina and Colombia, but relatively flat for about the past two weeks in Peru.

14 Jan 2020 Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target - 2020 will be Fine (Publication Centre)

Inflation in Brazil Ended 2019 Above the BCB's Target; 2020 will be Fine

14 Jan 2020 Early Signs of an IP Recovery in India Build the Case for the RBI's Pause (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in India turned around sharply in November, rising by 1.8% year-over-year, following October's 4.0% plunge and beating the consensus forecast for a trivial 0.3% uptick.

17 Dec 2019 The EZ PMIs Point to Another Subpar Quarter for the EZ in Q4 (Publication Centre)

We're sticking to our call that the Eurozone PMIs have bottomed, though we concede that the picture so far is more one of stabilisation than an outright rebound.

14 Jan 2020 A Recap of the Main Story in the EZ before the First Q1 Data (Publication Centre)

The EZ calendar has been extremely busy in the first few weeks of the year, making it virtually impossible to see the forest for the trees.

14 Jan 2020 Don't Read November's GDP Report in Isolation (Publication Centre)

Investors concluded too hastily yesterday that November's GDP report boosted the chances that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its upcoming meeting on January 30.

14 June 2019 Johnson is a Shoo-In For the Final Round, but He'll Face a Soft Brexiteer (Publication Centre)

After the first round of voting by Tory MPs, Boris Johnson remains the clear favourite to be the next Prime Minister.

14 Mar. 2016 Three Big Questions are the Key to the Fed's Actions this Year (Publication Centre)

A huge wave of data will break over markets this week, along with the FOMC meeting, new dot plots and Chair Yellen's press conference. But today is calm, with no significant data releases and no Fed speeches; policymakers are in purdah ahead of the meeting.

14 May 2019 French Manufacturing Output is Headed for a Fall in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Data on Friday showed that the upturn in French manufacturing petered out at the end of Q1.

14 May 2020 GDP Likely Fell even Further in April than March Data Imply (Publication Centre)

We take little comfort from the fact that the 2.0% quarter-on-quarter drop in Q1 GDP was a bit smaller than the consensus forecast, 2.5%, and the 3.0% fall pencilled-in by the MPC in its Monetary Policy Report.

14 Nov 2019 Japan's PPI Underscores More Muted Impact of Tax Hike on Prices (Publication Centre)

Japan's PPI data yesterday confirmed that October was a turning point for prices--due to the consumption tax hike--despite the surprising stability of CPI inflation in Tokyo for the same month.

14 May 2018 Could Foreign Trade Propel Second Quarter GDP Growth to 5%? (Publication Centre)

To answer the question: Yes, growth could hit 5% in the second quarter.

14 March 2019 Korea's Labour Market Data Throw Another Curveball (Publication Centre)

Korea's unemployment rate tumbled to 3.7% in February, after the leap to 4.4% in January.

14 March 2017 Small Firms are Happy, but When Will Their Capex Plans Pick up? (Publication Centre)

Small businesses remain extremely positive about the economy, but some of the post-election gloss appears to be wearing off. To be clear, the headline composite index of small business sentiment and activity in February, due this morning, will be much higher than immediately before the election, but a modest correction seems likely after January's 12- year high.

14 March 2018 Fundamentals for Brazilian Consumers Continue to Improve (Publication Centre)

The consumer in Brazil was off to a strong start to the first quarter, and we expect household spending will continue to boost GDP growth in the near term.

14 March 2018 Services and Construction are Boosting French Employment (Publication Centre)

Unemployment in France remains high, but the trend is turning. The mainland rate of joblessness fell to a five-year low of 8.6% in Q4, and yesterday's employment report continued the good news.

15 May 2020 Through the Looking Glass With Misleading EZ Economic Data (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's data provided further evidence of the EZ economy's response to the Covid-19 shock, though we recommend that investors take the numbers with a pinch of salt. In Germany, the final CPI report for April showed that headline inflation slipped to 0.9% year-over-year, from 1.4% in March, trivially above the first estimate, 0.8%.

15 July 2020 Slowing Rent Increases Emerge as a Key Drag on the Core CPI (Publication Centre)

We aren't much bothered by the one-tenth overshoot in the June core CPI, reported yesterday.

16 Oct 2019 China's Q3 GDP Likely was Dismal, Recovery Still Pending (Publication Centre)

China's official real GDP growth likely slowed to 6.0% year-over-year in Q3, from 6.2% in Q2.

16 Oct 2019 Colombia's Economy Solid in Q3, but Expect a Challenging Q4 (Publication Centre)

Evidence of accelerating economic activity in Colombia continues to mount, in stark contrast with its regional peers and DM economies.

16 Oct 2019 Momentum in Wage Growth Continues to Tie the MPC's Hands (Publication Centre)

The Brexit-related slump in corporate confidence finally has taken its toll on hiring.

16 October 2017 Rate Hike Bets Likely Will Fade After September's CPI Data (Publication Centre)

September's consumer price figures likely will surprise to the downside, prompting markets to reassess their view that the MPC will almost certainly raise interest rates next month.

15 Nov 2019 Banxico Cut Rates, Brazil's Economy was Firing on all Cylinders in Q3 (Publication Centre)

The two biggest economies in the region have taken divergent paths in recent months, with the economic recovery strengthening in Brazil, but slowing sharply in Mexico.

16 November 2017 Retail Sales to Surprise to the Downside Again in October (Publication Centre)

The consensus view that today's retail sales data will show volumes increased by 0.2% month-to-month in October is too sanguine.

16 May 2017 Manufacturing is Recovering, Despite the Hard and Soft Data Gap (Publication Centre)

The over-hyped mystery of the gap between the hard and soft data in the industrial economy has largely resolved itself in recent months.

16 May 2018 Better Fundamentals and Fading Political Risk to Support Colombia (Publication Centre)

Colombia's Q1 GDP report confirms that the economy is improving. Leading indicators and survey data suggest that the recovery will continue over the second half of the year.

16 November 2017 Core CPI Mean-Reverts, but Base Effects Mean Sub-2% Until March (Publication Centre)

The average month-to-month increase in the core CPI in the past three months is a solid 0.20, much firmer than the 0.05% average over the previous five months, stretching back to the first of the run of downside surprises, in March.

16 October 2018 Will Fiscal Stimulus Boost Eurozone GDP growth in 2019 (Publication Centre)

The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area was a macroeconomic horror story

16 Sept 2019 Japan's Domestic Demand Holding up Thanks to Services, it Won't Last (Publication Centre)

Japan's tertiary index edged up 0.1% month-on-month in July, after the 0.1% decrease in June.

17 August 2017 The Manufacturing Recovery Continues, but no Boom in Sight (Publication Centre)

The elevated readings from the ISM manufacturing survey this year have not been followed by rapid growth in output. The headline ISM averaged 55.8 in the second quarter, a solid if unspectacular reading. But output rose by only 1.2% year-over-year, and by 1.4% on a quarterly annualized basis.

17 August 2018 Pessimism Towards Retailers Looks Warranted, Despite July's Sales Rise (Publication Centre)

Equity prices for U.K. retailers have performed woefully since the E.U. referendum. The FTSE All-Share Index for general retailers has underperformed the overall All-Share Index by nearly 30% since the Brexit vote.

17 Dec 2019 Colombia Ends the Year Solidly, but Downside Risks for 2020 Emerge (Publication Centre)

Incoming activity data from Colombia over the past quarter have been surprisingly strong, despite many domestic and external threats.

17 Dec 2019 Signs of Stabilisation in Chinese Data, but not yet a Recovery (Publication Centre)

China's activity data outperformed expectations in November.

17 Aug 2020 Now is Not the Time for the RBI to Worry About Inflation (Publication Centre)

While we were away, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India voted unanimously to keep its benchmark repo rate unchanged, at 4.00%, defying expectations for a 25-basis point cut.

17 April 2018 The March Drop in Retail Sales will Overshadow Slowly Reviving Wages (Publication Centre)

This week's labour market, inflation and retail sales data--the last before the MPC meets on May 10--will have a major bearing on the Committee's decision.

16 Sept 2020 The Colombian Economy is on the Mend, but Momentum is Easing (Publication Centre)

Monday's economic data in Colombia provided further evidence of a gradual rebound in manufacturing output and retail sales as the economy slowly reopened.

16 Sept 2020 The Upturn in Redundancies is Only Just Getting Going (Publication Centre)

The latest official data continue to understate the collapse in labour demand since Covid-19.

17 April 2018 Brazil's Economy will Improve in Q2, but it Faces Rising Political Risk (Publication Centre)

Leading indicators and survey data in Brazil still suggest a rebound from the relatively soft GDP growth late last year and in Q1.

16 Mar 2020 The House Bill is Nothing Like Enough, Much More is Coming (Publication Centre)

The House passage of a stimulus bill last Friday, seeking to ameliorate some of the damage done by the coronavirus outbreak, will not be nearly enough.

16 November 2018 The Boost to Retail Sales from Tax Cuts is Fading, as Holidays Approach (Publication Centre)

The headline retail sales numbers for October looked good, but the details were less comforting.

15 Sept 2020 Brazil's Economic Upturn Continues, but Momentum will Fade Soon (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic recovery continues, according to the relatively upbeat data released in recent days.

15 September 2016 A Critical 12 Months Ahead for the EU (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's State of the Union address by EC president Jean-Claude Juncker commanded more attention than usual, but contained little news on the key talking points for investors.

16 Aug 2019 Eurozone Governments Have Fiscal Room, Will they use it (Publication Centre)

"Is EZ fiscal stimulus on the way?" is a question that we receive a lot these days.

16 June 2020 Lockdowns Continue to Put the Andean Economies Under Strain (Publication Centre)

Economic activity remains under severe strain in the Andes.

15 October 2018 Mexico's Industrial Output will Improve Fundamentals are Strong (Publication Centre)

The industrial production trajectory in Mexico looked strong going into Q3, but Friday's report for August threatens to change that picture.

15 Oct 2019 Brazil's Modest Recovery Continues, Peru's Central Bank to Cut Soon (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday from Brazil support our view that the economic recovery continues, but progress has been slow.

15 Oct 2019 China's Year-over-Year Trade Figures are Overly Grim (Publication Centre)

China's September imports missed expectations, but commentators and markets tend to focus on the year-over-year numbers.

15 Oct 2019 The China Trade Nothingburger won't Turn the Economy Around (Publication Centre)

The New York Times called the China trade agreement reached Friday "half a deal", but that's absurdly generous.

16 August 2017 Better Q2 Data in Colombia Ease Pressure on BanRep, for now (Publication Centre)

Colombian activity data released this week were weak, but mostly better than we expected. Real GDP rose 0.7% quarter- on-quarter in Q2, in contrast to the 0.3% fall in Q1, when the economy was hit by the lagged effect of last year's monetary tightening and the one-off VAT increase.

15 September 2017 Brazil Started Q3 Strongly, and the Recovery Should Continue in Q4 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's July economic activity index, released yesterday, showed that the economy started the second half of the year strongly. The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for GDP, rose 0.4% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.4%, from -0.4% in June.

16 January 2019 If December's Retail Sales Report Could Speak, it Would be Excited (Publication Centre)

The most important retail sales report of the year, for December, won't be published today, unless some overnight miracle means that the government has re-opened.

16 Dec 2019 Will President Fernández Solve the Debt Crisis in Argentina? (Publication Centre)

The new Argentinian president, Alberto Fernández, will have to make a quick start on the titanic task of cleaning up the economic and social mess left by his predecessor, Mauricio Macri.

16 June 2017 What Do the Internal MPC Members Need to See to Raise Rates? (Publication Centre)

Sterling received a shot in the arm yesterday following the release of the minutes of the MPC's meeting, which revealed that three members voted to raise interest rates to 0.50%, from 0.25% currently. Markets and economists--including ourselves--had expected another 7-1 split, but Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders switched sides and joined Kristin Forbes in seeking higher rates.

16 June 2020 How Much Extra QE will the MPC Announce This Week? (Publication Centre)

We agree with the majority of economists that the MPC will announce on Thursday another £100B of asset purchases, primarily of gilts, once it has completed the £200B of purchases it authorised on March 19.

16 January 2018 Brazil's Macro Conditions are Improving, But Fiscal Progress is Key (Publication Centre)

The IBC-Br index, a monthly proxy for Brazil's GDP--rose 0.5% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 2.8%, from an upwardly-revised 3.1% in October.

16 July 2018 Will Eurozone Investment Take a Hit from the Global Trade Conflict? (Publication Centre)

Last week's packed political agenda in Europe confirmed that political relations between the U.S. and the major Eurozone economies remain difficult.

16 Jan 2020 No Repeat of the December 2018 Plunge in Retail Sales (Publication Centre)

Ahead of the release of the retail sales report for December 2018, markets expected to see unchanged non-auto sales.

16 Jan 2020 CPI Inflation Will Rebound in Q1, Weakening the Case for Stimulus (Publication Centre)

The market-implied probability that the MPC will cut Bank Rate at its meeting on January 30 jumped to 63%, from 44%, following the release of December's consumer prices report.

16 Jan 2020 BoJ Likely to Stamp its Approval on the Budget with a GDP Upgrade (Publication Centre)

The BoJ is likely to be thankful next week for a relatively benign environment in which to conduct its monetary policy meeting.

13 September. 2016 Manufacturing is Improving in Mexico, Other Sectors Weaker (Publication Centre)

Economic growth in Mexico will remain relatively modest over the second half of the year, and the outlook for 2017 remains cloudy, for now. The core fundamentals suggest that growth will increase, but we think that depressed mining output and fiscal tightening might limit the pace of the upturn.

16 May 2019 The Industrial Sector is Bottoming April's IP Data are Misleading (Publication Centre)

We are not worried about the reported drop in April manufacturing output, which probably will reverse in May.

17 October 2017 Manufacturing Sector set for Modest Post-Hurricane Rebound? (Publication Centre)

The first October survey evidence from the industrial economy, in the form of the Empire State report, is remarkably strong.

13 May. 2016 Brazil's Retail Sector Still Under Pressure - Stabilization in H2, Just? (Publication Centre)

The recession in Brazilian consumers' spending continues, but the severity of the pain is easing. Retail sales plunged 0.9% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-rate down to -5.7%, from a revised -4.2% in February. The March headline likely was depressed by the early Easter.

18 Apr. 2016 Solid Colombian Manufacturing Sector Offsetting Soft Demand (Publication Centre)

Colombia's economic activity surprised to the upside in February, despite the challenging domestic environment. Private spending rose more than expected, but leading indicators suggest that household consumption will remain weak in Q2. Retail sales jumped 4.6% year-over-year in February, up from a 2.1% increase in January, and the fastest pace since August 2015.

17 July. 2015 Colombia's Business Sector Continues to Feel the Oil Pain (Publication Centre)

Colombia is one of the fastest growing economies in LatAm but over the last few quarters the country has been adjusting to the collapse in oil prices, the depreciating currency and rising inflation. But the slowdown, especially on the domestic side of the economy, has been less dramatic than expected, so far. Our main scenario is that the adjustment process to challenging external conditions will continue over the coming quarters.

18 May. Falling Airline Fares Mask Higher Services Sector Inflation (Publication Centre)

CPI inflation surprised to the downside in April, falling to 0.3% from 0.5% in March. Both the consensus and ourselves expected the rate to hold steady. Nearly all of the surprise, however, was in airfares and clothing inflation, which were depressed, to a greater extent than we anticipated, by the shift in the timing of Easter and bad weather, respectively.

10 April 2019 Brazil's Retail Sector Slowed in Q1 Better Credit Conditions will Help (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economic activity data have disappointed in recent months, firming expectations that the Q1 GDP report will show another relatively meagre expansion.

06 October. 2016 Steady Growth in the Services Sector Undermines Rate Cut Case (Publication Centre)

September's Markit/CIPS services survey added to the evidence indicating that GDP growth softened, rather than fell off a cliff, in the third quarter. The activity index edged down only to 52.6, from 52.9 in August.

11 Feb. 2016 More Equity-Raising Ahead in the Eurozone Banking Sector (Publication Centre)

Fears over a Eurozone banking crisis have compounded market volatility recently, and sent bank equities into a tailspin. Deutsche Bank has been the focus of the attention, probably due to its systemic importance and opaque balance sheet. DB's stock price is down a staggering 38% year-to-date, and earlier this week, the German finance minister had to assure markets that he has no worries about the bank's position.

12 May 2020 What's to Become of EZ GDP With a Hamstrung Services Sector (Publication Centre)

All major EZ governments are now in the process of lifting lockdowns, but investors should expect less a grand opening, more of a careful tip-toeing.

13 December 2016 Mexico's Industrial Sector Started Q4 Slowly, 2017 will be Poor (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Mexico remained under pressure at the start of Q4. Output rose just 0.1% month-to-month in October, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at -1.4%, down from an average of -0.8% in Q3.

13 Jan. 2015 - Small Business Sector on the Brink of Normalization (Publication Centre)

Within the next few month, and perhaps as soon as next month, the gap between the headline NFIB and ISM manufacturing indexes, shown in our first chart, will close for the first time since late 2008.

16 December 2016 The Eurozone Manufacturing Sector is Picking up Momentum (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's euro area PMI data continue to tell a story of a firm business cycle upturn. The composite PMI was unchanged at 53.9 in December; an increase in the manufacturing index offset a decline in the services PMI.

5 September. 2016 Brazil's Industrial Sector is Stabilizing - Modest Gains Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Friday's Brazil industrial production data were surprisingly upbeat. Output rose 0.1% month-to-month in July, slightly better than the consensus forecast for no change. July's modest gain was the fifth consecutive increase, confirming that industrial output in Brazil is stabilizing, and it paints a less grim picture of GDP growth at the start of Q3.

5 July 2017 The Consumer Slowdown will Ripple out to the Services Sector Soon (Publication Centre)

The slowdown in quarter-on-quarter growth in households' real spending to 0.4% in Q1--just half 2016's average rate--was driven entirely by a 0.1% fall in purchases of goods. Households' spending on services, by contrast, continued to grow briskly. Indeed, the 0.8% quarter-on-quarter rise in households' real spending on services exceeded 2016's average 0.5% rate.

6 June 2018. Brazil's Industrial Sector Maintained Momentum in April, Will it Last? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production report in Brazil was sizzling. Headline output jumped 0.8% month- to-month in April--well above the 0.4% consensus-- pushing the year-over-year rate up to 8.9%, a five- year high.

8 January 2018 Brazil's Industrial Sector and Foreign Trade to Remain Resilient in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Survey data have been signalling a relatively resilient Brazilian economy in the last few months, despite intensified political risk, and hard data are beginning to confirm this story.

19 June 2018 The Eurozone Construction Sector Started Q2 on the Front Foot (Publication Centre)

Today's construction data in the Eurozone will inject a dose of optimism amid the series of poor economic reports at the start of Q2.

9 June. 2015 A flying start to Q2 for German Industrial sector and exports (Publication Centre)

Economic reports released yesterday indicate that the German economy was off to a solid start early in the second quarter. Industrial production rose 0.9% month-to-month in April, equivalent to a 1.4% increase year-over-year, up from a revised tiny 0.2% gain in March. This is the biggest annual jump in production since July last year, but the underlying trend is turning up only slowly, in line with the moderate improvement in survey data this year.

3 November 2017 The EZ Manufacturing Sector is in No Mood for a Slowdown (Publication Centre)

Survey data signal that Eurozone manufacturing retained momentum at the start of Q4. Yesterday's final PMI reports showed that the EZ manufacturing index rose to 58.5 in October from 58.1 in September, trivially below the first estimate.

9 Apr. 2015 German Manufacturing sector remains relatively subdued (Publication Centre)

The combination of upbeat survey data and solid consumer spending numbers indicate that the German economy is in good shape. But manufacturing data continue to disappoint; factory orders fell 0.9% month-to-month in February, equivalent to a 1.3% decline year-over-year.

27 Jan. 2015 Falling Oil Sector Capex a Wild Card for Durable Goods Orders (Publication Centre)

We would like to be able to argue with confidence that today's December durable goods orders report will show core capital goods orders rebounding after three straight declines, totalling 3.4%.

2 Dec. 2014 - Eurozone Manufacturing Sector Unlikely to Recover in Q4 (Publication Centre)

The PMI survey continues to send a downbeat message on growth in the euro area despite signs of improvement in other sentiment data: The final manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone fell to 50.1 in November from 50.6 in October.

24 April 2018 The Strong Services Sector Boosted Mexico's Economy in Q1 (Publication Centre)

Growth appears to have accelerated in the first quarter in Mexico, as NAFTA-related uncertainty abated, inflation started to fall, and the MXN rebounded.

20 February 2017 Is the Eurozone Construction Sector is Back in Business? (Publication Centre)

Construction in the euro area stumbled at the end of last year. Output fell 0.2% month-to-month in December, but the year-over-year rose to 2.4%, from a revised 1.6% in November.

24 Mar. 2016 Mexico's Domestic Sector Still Resilient - a Good Start to the Year (Publication Centre)

Mexico's CPI rose just 0.1% in the first half of March, due to higher core prices. The increase was broadbased within this component, with goods prices increasing by 0.2% and core services 0.4%. Core services prices were driven by temporary factors, including vacation packages and higher airfare tickets. Non-core prices, meanwhile, fell 0.5%, due mainly to falling fresh food prices.

26 Mar. 2015 How Far Will Capital Goods Orders Fall as the Oil Sector Shrinks? (Publication Centre)

The rollover in core capital goods orders in recent months has been startling. In the three months to February, compared to the previous three months, orders for non-defense capital goods fell at a 7.6% annualized rate.

17 November 2017 Manufacturing Output Rebounds, but no Boom Coming (Publication Centre)

The spectacular 1.3% rebound in manufacturing output last month -- the biggest jump in seven years, apart from an Easter-distorted April gain -- does not change our core view that activity in the sector is no longer accelerating.

17 June. 2015 FOMC to Acknowledge Rebound, but Rate Dots Likely Unchanged (Publication Centre)

The tone of today's FOMC statement likely will be different to the gloomy April missive, which began with a list of bad news: "...economic growth slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting transitory factors. The pace of job gains moderated... underutilization of labor resources was little changed. Growth in household spending declined... Business fixed investment softened, the recovery in the housing sector remained slow, and exports declined."

17 October. 2016 Rising Inflation in 2017 Will Reflect More Than Just Import Prices (Publication Centre)

The MPC's forecast in August, which predicted that inflation would overshoot its 2% target over the next two years only modestly--giving it the green light to ease policy--assumed that inflation in sectors insensitive to swings in import prices would remain low. We doubt, however, that domestically generated inflation will remain benign.

17 February 2017 Colombian Consumers are in Good Shape, but Spending will Slow (Publication Centre)

Colombia's retail sector surprised to the upside once again in December, despite a number of domestic headwinds. Sales jumped 6.2% year- over-year, up from 4.9% in November, marking an impressive end to the quarter. The underlying trend improved significantly in Q4, as shown in our first chart. A double-digit rise in auto sales was the main driver, offsetting weakness in other key components.

16 Sept. 2015 Industry in Less-Bad Shape Than August Data Suggest - Q4 Better? (Publication Centre)

We aren't going to pretend for a minute that the manufacturing sector is anything other than weak, but the 0.5% drop in output in August--the worst month since January 2014--hugely overstates the extent of industry's struggles. All the decline was due to a 6.4% plunge in auto output, but a glance at the recent path of production in this sector makes it very clear that its short-term swings aren't to be taken seriously. Auto production fell by 4.5% in June, rocketed by 10.6% in July, and then dropped sharply in August.

18 March 2019 Mexico's Manufacturing is Offsetting the Oil Drag, Risks Remain (Publication Centre)

Hard data on Mexico's industrial sector for the last couple of months have highlighted major divergences across sectors.

16 Sept. 2015 Brazil's Austerity Measures Sound Good, But Probably Won't All Happen (Publication Centre)

Brazil's government announced on Monday spending cuts and new tax increases, aiming to generate a 0.7% of GDP primary surplus, and so restore market confidence and avoid further credit rating downgrades. The plan is to reduce expenditure by BRL26B next year--or 0.4% of GDP--mainly through freezing public sector salaries and slashing social projects. These measures, especially the latter, will likely meet strong resistance in Congress. The salary freeze has more of a chance of passing, but reducing or closing some Ministries is a cost-cutting exercise with an extremely high political price.

18 Nov. 2015 Weak Manufacturing Won't Push the EZ Economy into Recession (Publication Centre)

Historical evidence suggests that we should be worried about the relative weakness in the Eurozone's manufacturing sector. Industrial production ex-construction has historically been a key indicator of the business cycle, despite accounting for a comparatively modest 19% of total value-added in the euro area. In all three previous major downturns, underperformance in the manufacturing sector sounded the alarm six-to-nine months in advance that the economy was about to slip into recession.

18 May 2017 The Revival in Eurozone Construction is Real. Don't Miss It (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone construction sector took a step back at the end of Q1, but only temporarily. Construction output fell 1.1% month-to-month in March, after a revised 5.5% jump in February. The year-over-year rate slipped to +3.6%, from a two-year high of 5.5% in February.

18 July. 2016 Will Fiscal Loosening and Sterling's Drop Stave off Recession? (Publication Centre)

With plenty of evidence emerging that consumer spending and business investment are set to suffer from a collapse in confidence, attention is turning to whether other sectors of the economy are ready to step up and support growth. But the fruits from reduced fiscal contraction and stronger net trade will be small and will take a long time to emerge.

18 August. 2015 Can the Fed Hike if the Empire State Survey is Right? (Publication Centre)

Just how weak would the manufacturing sector have to be in order to persuade the Fed to hold fire this fall, assuming the labor market numbers continue to improve steadily? The question is germane in the wake of the startlingly terrible August Empire State manufacturing survey, which suggested that conditions for manufacturers in New York are deteriorating at the fastest rate since June 2009.

15 July. 2016 The EU and Italy Edge Closer to a Deal on the Country's Ailing Banks (Publication Centre)

This weeks' IMF's staff report on the Italian economy has increased the urgency for a compromise between the EU and Italy over the country's suffering banks. The report highlighted that financial sector reform is "critical" to the economy, and that the treatment of the significant portion of retail investors in banks' debt structure should be dealt with "appropriately."

15 Dec. 2015 Solid Industrial Production in the Eurozone Given Global Weakness (Publication Centre)

Industrial production in Eurozone had a decent start to the fourth quarter. Output ex-construction rose 0.6% month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.9% from a revised 1.3% in September. Production was lifted by gains in the major economies, and surging output in the Netherlands, Portugal and Lithuania. Across sectors, increases in production of capital and consumer goods were the main drivers, but energy output also helped, due to a cold spell lifting demand and production in France.

15 Apr. 2015 Plunging utility output and oil well-drilling to depress March IP (Publication Centre)

The combination of weather effects and the meltdown in the oil sector make it very hard to spot the underlying trend in manufacturing activity. The sudden collapse in oil-related capital spending likely is holding down production of equipment, but the data don't provide sufficient detail to identify the hit with any precision.

14 September 2016 Labour Market Report Likely to be Soft all Round (Publication Centre)

Today's figures likely will bring the first real signs that the Brexit vote has had an adverse impact on the labour market. The employment balances of the key private-sector surveys weakened sharply in July, and recovered only partially in August. In addition, the three-month average level of job vacancies fell by 7K between April and July.

14 October. 2016 Mexican Manufacturing is Recovering, But Oil Still a Big Drag (Publication Centre)

Wednesday's Mexican industrial production report was upbeat for manufacturing, but it revealed that the oil and public construction sectors remain under severe strain.

19 Dec. 2014 Further Signs of Diverging Growth Paths in Mexico And Brazil (Publication Centre)

This year has proved to be challenging for retailers in Mexico. The combination of fiscal reform, the economic slowdown over the first half of the year, and the collapse of consumer sentiment took a significant toll in the sector.

15 March 2019 Manufacturing Output Likely Rose in February, but the Outlook is Grim (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing is not in recession, yet, despite the reams of gloomy analysis of the sector, including our own.

16 June. 2015 Manufacturing is Struggling, but it Won't Get the Fed off the Hook (Publication Centre)

Another month, another sluggish performance in the manufacturing sector. Even a third straight big jump in auto output was unable to rescue the May numbers, and aggregate output fell by 0.2%. The trend in output has been broadly flat over the past six months or so, and we see little prospect of any sustained near-term recovery.

16 June 2020 China's Sturdy Q2 Rebound Spells GDP Upgrade, but at Q3's Expense (Publication Centre)

China's post-lockdown recovery broadly has surprised this quarter, particularly in the industrial sector.

15 Sept 2020 CPI Inflation Likely Fell to a Near- Zero Rate in August (Publication Centre)

August's consumer prices report, due on Wednesday, is harder to forecast than usual, given high uncertainty regarding the impact of the cut in VAT for the hospitality sector, as well as the consequences of the ONS' decision to resume collecting data from physical stores.

15 May. 2015 Oil Still Depressing Industrial Production (Publication Centre)

The consequences of the collapse in oil prices continue to reverberate through the sector. The number of rigs in operation is still falling rapidly, but the rate of decline is slowing. According to data from Baker Hughes, Inc., an average of 23 rigs per week have ceased operation over the past four weeks, the slowest decline since December.

16 November 2018 The EU's New Car Emissions Rules Cast a Long Shadow over the EZ (Publication Centre)

Economic data in the Eurozone auto sector remain under the influence of the aftershock from the EU's new emissions regulation--WLTP-- introduced in September.

2 May 2017 Economic Activity in Mexico Remains Strong, but Will Slow (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery has been steady in recent months, and Q1 likely will mark the end of the recession. The gradual recovery of the industrial and agricultural sectors has been the highlight, thanks to improving external demand, the lagged effect of the more competitive BRL, and the more stable political situation, which has boosted sentiment.

21 Jan. 2016 Could the Chancellor Still Reduce Borrowing This Year as Planned? (Publication Centre)

By any yardstick, progress in reducing public sector borrowing so far this fiscal year has been poor. While the borrowing trend should improve in the final four months of this year--including December's figures, published Friday--the Chancellor has only a slim chance of meeting the forecasts set out in the Autumn Statement.

21 Dec. 2015 Corporations Still Over-leveraged, but Little Near-Term Danger? (Publication Centre)

The markets' favorite story of the moment, aside from the Fed, seems to be the idea that overstretched corporate finances are an accident waiting to happen. When the crunch comes, the unavoidable hit to the stock market and the corporate bond market will have dire consequences, limiting the Fed's scope to raise rates, regardless of what might be happening in the labor market. We don't buy this. At least, we don't buy the second part of the narrative; we have no problem with the idea the finances of the corporate sector are shaky.

21 August. 2015 Mexico's Domestic Recovery Remains - But Oil Woes Continue (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy had a decent start to the year thanks to resilient domestic demand, but hampered by the rollover in capital spending in the oil sector and the slowdown in manufacturing activity. Economic activity expanded 2.2% year-over-year in the second quarter, down from 2.6% in the first quarter, but the underlying trend remains reasonably solid.

21 August 2017 Construction is Propelling the Eurozone Economy in 2017 (Publication Centre)

The construction sector remains a stand-out performer in the Eurozone economy, despite stumbling at the end of Q2.

21 Jan. 2016 Why Aren't Core Goods Prices Falling Much Faster? (Publication Centre)

Another day, another sharp drop in the stock market, and another wavelet of commentary suggesting recession and deflation are just around the corner. We have no argument with the idea that the manufacturing sector could contract over, say, the next six months. But the other 88% of the economy--apart from the 1½% of GDP generated by oil extraction-- is benefiting from the strong dollar and cheap fuel.

21 July. 2015 Easier Lending Standards Set to Lift Second Half Housing Activity (Publication Centre)

If the only things that mattered for the housing markets were the obvious factors--the strength of the labor market, and low mortgage rates--the sector would be booming. Activity is picking up, with new and existing home sales up by 23% and 9% year-over-year respectively in the three months to May, but the level of transactions volumes remains hugely depressed. At the peak, new home sales were sustained at an annualized rate of about 1½M, but May sales stood at only 546K. Adjusting for population growth, the long-run data suggests sales ought to be running at close to 1M.

22 May. 2015 Brazil, Overshadowed by Mexico During The First Quarter--Again (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy stuttered at the start of the year. Real GDP rose 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, after a solid 0.7% in the fourth quarter. Q1 activity was supported by the services sector, rising 0.5%, offsetting the 0.2% contraction in industrial activity.

22 May 2017 What Does the Path to the Recession of 2019 Look Like? (Publication Centre)

In recent years only one event has made a material difference to the growth path of the U.S. economy, namely, the plunge in oil prices which began in the summer of 2014. The ensuing collapse in capital spending in the mining sector and everything connected to it, pulled GDP growth down from 2½% in both 2014 and 2015 to just 1.6% in 2016.

21 Sept. 2015 Don't Focus on Industry - The U.S. is a Domestic Services Economy (Publication Centre)

The economy is bifurcating. Manufacturing is weak, and likely will remain so for some time, though talk of recession in the sector is overdone. Even more overdone is the idea that the softness of the industrial sector will somehow drag down the rest of the economy, which is more than seven times bigger.

21 Oct. 2015 Colombia Resilient in the Face of External Headwinds (Publication Centre)

Colombia's industrial and retail sectors surprised to the upside in August, suggesting that the domestic economy has been resilient during most of the third quarter, despite the hit from an array of external headwinds. Industrial production increased by a solid 2.6% year-over-year in August, up from an upwardly revised 0.6% expansion in July, and above its recent trend. In the first half of the year, industrial activity fell on average by 1.1%, the worst performance since 2013, due mainly to the oil hit and ex tended works at Reficar, the country's second biggest oil refinery. But Colombia's manufacturers appear to have shrugged off part of the oil pain in recent months.

21 Aug 2019 Construction in the EZ is Slowing, Driven by Weakness in Germany (Publication Centre)

We still don't have the complete picture of what happened to the EZ construction sector in Q2, but we have enough evidence to suggest that it rolled over.

20 July. 2016 EZ Construction Capex Plunged in Q2, Depressing GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ construction data confirmed that capex in the building sector plunged in the second quarter. Construction output fell 0.5% month-to-month in May, pushing the year-over-year rate up trivially to -0.8%, from a revised -1.0% in April. Our forecast for construction investment in Q2 is not pretty, even after including our assumption that production rebounded by 0.5% month-to-month in June.

2 August. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Was Resilient in July, But Only Thanks to Germany (Publication Centre)

Industrial sector activity in the euro area was broadly stable at the beginning of the third quarter, despite the headline dip in the July manufacturing PMI. The Eurozone index fell to 52.0 in July, from 52.8 in June, but if it holds at this level it will be unchanged in Q3 compared with the second quarter.

19 October. 2016 Housing Construction has Faltered - Outlook is Cloudy (Publication Centre)

We have given up, more or less, on the idea that housing construction will be a serious driver of economic growth in this cycle. The next cycle should be different, but it was never realistic to expect the sector which brought down the economy to recover fully as soon as the dust settled.

19 October 2017 Q3's Slowdown in EZ Construction is no Threat, the Trend is Firm (Publication Centre)

The upturn in the Eurozone construction sector likely paused in Q3. Yesterday's August report showed that output fell 0.2% month-to-month, pushing the year-over-year rate down to +1.6%, from a revised +2.8% in July.

19 Nov. 2015 A Rebound in Construction Could Lift Investment in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

The construction sector in the Eurozone remains moribund. Output fell 0.4% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate up to 1.8% from a revised 1.4% fall in August. Declines were recorded in France, Germany, and Italy, with a small increase in Spain. These data could, in theory, lead to revisions in the final Q3 Eurozone GDP data released December 8th, but we very much doubt they will move the needle. Our first chart shows the relationship between construction and GDP growth has broken down since the crisis.

2 June. 2016 ADP Likely to be Constrained by the Verizon Strike (Publication Centre)

We think today's ADP private sector employment report for May will reflect the impact of the Verizon strike, which kept 35K people away from work last month, but we can't be sure. ADP's methodology should in theory only capture the strike if Verizon uses ADP for payroll processing--we don't know--but there's nothing to stop them from manually tweaking the numbers to account for known events. Indeed, it would be absurd to ignore the strike.

14 June 2017 Korean Growth Probably Peaked in Q1. Construction to Slow (Publication Centre)

Construction accounted for the entire 1.1% quarter-to- quarter expansion of the Korean economy in Q1, but the sector is now set to slow.

20 Feb. 2015 Colombia's Strong Domestic Activity is Neutralizing Oil Price Hit (Publication Centre)

Colombia's oil industry--one of the key drivers of the country's economic growth over the last decade--has been stumbling over recent months, raising concerns about the country's growth prospects. But the recent weakness of the mining sector is in stark contrast with robust internal demand and solid domestic production.

20 Apr. 2015 The Weather was the Big Story in Q1, and the Hit Will Reverse (Publication Centre)

If our inbox is any guide, a significant proportion of investors remain far from convinced that the slowdown in the economy in the first quarter is largely the consequence of the severe weather, with an additional temporary hit to capex from the rollover in the oil sector.

2 October 2018 How Bad Was the Hit to EZ Auto Production in Q3? (Publication Centre)

The industrial sector in the EZ slowed further at the end of Q3.

2 November. 2016 Brazil Industrial Output Remains Sluggish, but Q4 will be Better (Publication Centre)

Brazil's September industrial production report, released yesterday, confirmed the message from survey data that the sector stabilized towards the end of summer. Output rose 0.5 month-to-month, and August output was revised up by 0.3 percentage points.

19 February 2018 EZ Construction Slowed in H2 2017, but Will Pick Up Soon (Publication Centre)

Data today will show that the EZ construction sector finished 2017 on a decent note.

12 September. 2016 Everything Changes in the Second Half (Publication Centre)

This week brings a wave of data on all aspects of the economy, bar housing. By the end o f the week, we'll have a better idea of the shape of consumers' spending, the industrial sector and the inflation picture, and estimates of third quarter GDP growth will start to mean something.

1 June 2017 ADP Likely to Rebound Strongly, but Probably Will Overstate Payrolls (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a strong-looking 225K increase in the May ADP measure of private sector payroll growth, due today. The consensus forecast is 180K.

23 July. 2015 Slow, but Steady, Recovery in French Manufacturing This Year (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing industry in France is recovering slowly, but surely. The headline INSEE index rose to 102 in July from 101 in June, close to a post-crisis high, pointing to steady improvement for manufacturers. Our first chart shows the main leading components of the survey, indicating a modest, but positive, trend in output. The increase in sentiment in July was driven by firming new orders--especially in the export sector--pushing the new orders-to-inventory ratio to an 18-month high.

1 July. 2016 Manufacturing Activity Has Levelled-Off - Better News Ahead (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector is much more exposed to external forces--the dollar, and global growth--than the rest of the economy. But much of the slowdown in the sector over the past year-and-a-half, we think, can be traced back to the impact of plunging oil prices on capital spending in the sector.

1 Apr. 2015 Tightening Bias Remains as Chile's Inflation Forecast is Increased (Publication Centre)

Chile's economic sector survey, released on Monday, provides further evidence that the cyclical recovery in the economy continues, albeit at a moderate pace. On the demand side, the rebound is still in place, with retail sales jumping 2.0% month-to-month in February and the underlying trend firm.

1 Sept. 2015 Manufacturing Woes Changing as Oil Hit Eases but Dollar Gains Bite (Publication Centre)

The pressures on U.S. manufacturers are changing. For most of this year to date, the problem has been the collapse in capital spending in the oil business, which has depressed overall investment spending, manufacturing output and employment. Oil exploration is extremely capital-intensive, so the only way for companies in the sector to save themselves when the oil prices collapsed was to slash capex very quickly.

10 Dec. 2014 German Exports are Holding Up, But Greek Election Risks Loom (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing sector is showing signs of stabilisation with industrial production rising 0.2% month-on-month in October, equivalent to 0.8% year-over- year. This is consistent with a decent retracement in production this quarter, but growth is still only barely above zero.

10 May. 2016 Do Falling Earnings Signal a Rollover in Payroll Gains? (Publication Centre)

In the wake of the payroll report on Friday, several readers sent us a version of the chart reproduced below, showing the rates of growth of S&P earnings and private sector payrolls. The message from the chart appears to be that the current trend in payroll growth, a bit over 200K per month cannot be sustained.

10 May 2018 A Horrible Q1 for Manufacturers in France, but Q2 Will be Better (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing sector slowed more than we expected in Q1.

10 March 2017 Evidence of a Brazilian Business Cycle Recovery this Year is Building (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector had a relatively good start to the year. Data on Wednesday showed that production fell 0.1% month-to-month in January, less than markets expected, and the year-over-year rate rose to 1.4%, after a 0.1% drop in December.

10 March 2017 February Payrolls Look set for Strength, Seasonals Permitting (Publication Centre)

We're expecting a hefty increase in February payrolls today, but even a surprise weak number likely wouldn't prevent a rate hike next week. The trends in all the private sector employment surveys are strong and improving, and jobless claims have dropped to new lows too, though we think that's probably less important than it appears.

1 Apr 2020 Global Monitor Covid-19 has arrived in LatAm (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - Job losses set to breach 10M in just a few weeks. • EUROZONE - Who will pay for the Covid-19 stimulus in the EZ? • U.K. - The private sector's balance sheet is in good shape to take on the lockdown • ASIA - Covid-19 is worse for China than the financial crisis • LATAM - The data supported rate cuts in LatAm even before coronavirus

09 Mar. 2016 Production Still on a Downward Trend, Despite Likely January Rise (Publication Centre)

Figures released today look set to reveal that industrial production rose in January by the biggest percentage since August. But this will simply reflect a rebound in demand for heating energy after extreme weakness late last year. The oil and manufacturing sectors remain on course for an extremely challenging year.

03 October. 2016 Deutsche's Woes Persist but it's not a European Lehman Moment (Publication Centre)

The European financial sector was in the news again on Friday, propelled by further weakness in Deutsche Bank's share price. In our Monitor of September 27, we said that worries of a European "Lehman Moment" were overblown.

03 Mar. 2016 Construction Slowdown is Symptomatic of Wider Malaise (Publication Centre)

The revival in the construction sector is slowing on all fronts as the fiscal squeeze intensifies, business confidence fades and the recovery in housebuilding loses momentum. These headwinds are likely to ensure that construction output only holds steady this year, thereby contributing to the broader economic slowdown.

02 Feb. 2016 Is the Recovery in Business Investment About to Fizzle Out? (Publication Centre)

Business investment has been resilient to the slowdown in the wider economy so far, with year-over-year growth in the first three quarters of 2015 averaging a very respectable 6.2%. Outside the oil sector, firms are generating healthy profits and can borrow cheaply.

01 May. 2015 Fed doves on the defensive as wages break to the upside (Publication Centre)

The 0.7% first quarter increase in the ECI measure of private sector wages and salaries raised the year-over-year rate to 2.8%, the highest since late 2008 and significantly stronger than the 2.1% increase in hourly earnings in the year to March.

05 October. 2016 Construction Still Set to Struggle, Despite the Looser Fiscal Stance (Publication Centre)

Promises of new money to facilitate construction on public sector land from the Chancellor and the pick-up in the construction PMI have fostered optimism that the sector's downturn is over.

05 October. 2016 EZ PPI deflation will be over soon (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ producer price data showed that deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector are fading. The headline PPI index fell 0.2% month- to-month in August, pushing the year-over-year up to -2.1%, from a revised -2.6% July.

08 May. 2015 Brazil's Weak Growth Not Sufficient to Stop the Tightening Process (Publication Centre)

This week's hard data confirmed the bleak situation of Brazil's industrial sector, signalled over the last few months by key leading indicators such as the PMI manufacturing and the CNI business confidence surveys. March industrial production fell by 0.8% month-to-month and 3.5% year-over-year, following a downwardly-revised 9.4% contraction in February.

08 Feb. 2016 German Manufacturing likely Ended Q4 on a Weak Note (Publication Centre)

Demand in the German manufacturing sector stumbled at the end of Q4. Factory orders fell 0.7% month-to-month in December, but the details of the report were slightly more upbeat than the headline. The main hit came from a 2.5% fall in domestic orders, chiefly as a result of weakness in the intermediate goods sector.

07 October. 2016 Payrolls Likely Unexciting Last Month, But Wages Should Rebound (Publication Centre)

Private sector payroll growth has averaged 190K over the past year, but the six-month average has slowed to 150K. The downshift is consistent with the weakening in survey-based measures of hiring intentions, which began to soften at the turn of the year.

06 May. 2015 Latest Data Enhances Divergent Activity Trends in LatAm (Publication Centre)

Mexican manufacturing sector kicked off the year on a soft note, due mainly to the sharp drop in oil prices, and the sharp weather-induced slowdown in the U.S. Mexico's northern neighbor is its largest trading partner, by far, accounting for about 85% of total exports last year and close to 80% of total non-oil exports.

10 Nov. 2015 Focus on Older Workers in Jobs Report Misses the Bigger Picture (Publication Centre)

Investors and market observers of a relatively bearish persuasion argued over the weekend that the details of the October employment report were less encouraging than the headline, principally because the household survey showed that all the job growth, net, was among older workers, defined as people aged 55-plus. This, they argue, suggests that most of the increased demand for labor was concentrated in low-paid service sector jobs, where older workers are concentrated, perhaps reflecting retail hiring ahead of the holidays. Such a wave of hiring is unlikely to be repeated over the next few months, so payroll growth won't be sustained at its October pace.

11 Feb. 2015 Will private investments in France ever pick up? (Publication Centre)

The French industrial sector ended last year on an upbeat note, but the underlying trend in activity is still weak. Industrial production rose 1.5% month-to-month in December, equivalent to a 0.1% fall year-over-year.

12 October 2018 Brazilian Households are in Good Shape, Despite Rising Political Risk (Publication Centre)

Data released yesterday support our view that the Brazilian retail sector has gathered strength in recent months, following a weak Q2, when activity was hit by the truckers' strike.

12 Oct. 2015 French Manufacturing Output Likely Fell in Q3 - Q4 will b e Better (Publication Centre)

French industrial production data offered a bit of relief last week following a string of woeful German data, and news of monthly falls in Italian and Spanish manufacturing output. Industrial production jumped 1.6% month-to-month in August, but the headline was flattered by a 0.3% downward revision of the July data. The monthly jump pushed the year-over-year rate higher to 1.6%, from a revised 0.9% fall in July. All sectors performed strongly in August, but the key story was a hefty increase in transport equipment manufacturing, due to a 11.9% surge in vehicle production.

12 Nov. 2015 German Inflation Will Rise Faster than the ECB and Market Expect (Publication Centre)

CPI data today in France and Germany will confirm that current inflation rates remain very low in the euro area. Inflation in Germany likely rose to 0.3% year-over-year from 0.0% in September, in line with the consensus and initial estimate. State data indicate that the rise was driven by surging fresh food prices and slightly higher services inflation, principally due to a jump in the volatile recreation and culture sector. Looking ahead, food prices will drop back, but energy inflation will rise rapidly as last year's plunge drops out of the year-over-year comparison, while upward core pressure is now emerging too.

12 June. 2015 Consumption Back on Track as the Winter Weather Hit Reverses (Publication Centre)

Consumers' spending in the second quarter is still set to be less than great, thanks in part to unfavorable base effects from the first quarter, but a respectable showing of about 2¾% now seems likely. The core May retail sales numbers were a bit stronger than we expected, with gains in most sectors, and the upward revisions to April and March were substantial.

13 Apr. 2015 Energy Output Helped French GDP to a Strong First Quarter (Publication Centre)

The French manufacturing sector remains challenged by weak end-demand. Industrial production was unchanged month-to-month in February, equivalent to a meagre 0.6% increase year-over- year; manufacturing output fell 0.8% on the same basis.

13 May. 2016 EZ Manufacturing Jumped in Q1, but Likely Will Nosedive in Q2 (Publication Centre)

Activity in the Eurozone industrial sector cooled at the end of the first quarter. Manufacturing production declined 0.8% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.2% from a revised 1.0% in February. Over Q1 as a whole, though, the story was positive.

14 Jan. 2015 Industrial Production: A Tale of the Two Major LatAm Economies (Publication Centre)

On Monday we highlighted the grim state of the Brazilian industrial sector, where output fell by a huge 5.8% year-over-year in November. By contrast, the outlook for Mexico's industrial sector is much brighter.

14 Dec. 2015 Can Eurozone Equities Withstand Global Headwinds Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Barring a gigantic shock from the Fed this week--we expect a 25bp hike--Eurozone equities will end the year with a solid return for investors, who have been overweight. Total return of the MSCI EU ex-UK should come in around 10%, which compares to a likely flat return for the MSCI World, reflecting the boost from the ECB's QE driving out performance. Our first chart shows the index has been mainly lifted by consumer sector, healthcare and IT stocks, comfortably making up for weakness in materials and energy. The year has been a story of two halves, however, and global headwinds have intensified since the summer, partly offsetting the surge in the Q1 as markets celebrated the arrival of QE and negative interest rates.

13 Oct. 2015 Could Higher Rates Really "Spur" Faster Economic Growth? (Publication Centre)

What should we make of the view of Fed hawks, set out with admirable clarity in the September FOMC minutes, that higher rates "might spur rather than restrain economic activity"? The core story behind this counter-intuitive proposal is the idea that zero rates send a signal to the private sector that the Fed is deeply worried about the state of the economy.

13 Nov. 2015 Will the Drag on the Recovery From Construction Fade? (Publication Centre)

The underlying health of the construction sector isn't as poor as today's official output figures likely will imply. Nonetheless, growth in construction output, which accounts for 6% of GDP, probably won't return to the stellar rates seen in 2013 and 2014, and the sector can't be relied upon to provide much support to overall growth.

12 Jan. 2016 Drop in November Production to Set the Tone for Q4 GDP (Publication Centre)

November's industrial production figures, released today, look set to surprise the consensus to the downside, underscoring our view that the economic recovery is continuing to lose momentum. Moreover, with sterling remaining uncompetitive, despite depreciating over recent weeks, and lower oil prices making extracting oil from the North Sea unprofitable, the industrial sector likely will impede the economic recovery further in 2016.

12 Jan. 2015 More Misery for Industrial Production in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Manufacturing data for the euro area's major economies point to renewed downside risks for GDP growth, despite the likely tailwind to consumption from low oil prices. November industrial production fell 0.1% and 0.3% month-to-month in Germany and France respectively, indicating that the manufacturing sector remains under pressure.

11 September 2018 Business Owners Bullish, but Where's the Capex (Publication Centre)

If you had only the NFIB survey of small businesses as your guide to the state of the business sector, you'd be blissfully unaware that the economic commentariat right now is obsessed with the potential hit from the trade tariffs, actual and threatened.

11 Nov. 2015 The Revival in North Sea Oil Production Won't Last (Publication Centre)

The large unexpected surge in oil and gas output this year has boosted the overall economic recovery significantly. But this looks like the last hurrah for a sector of the U.K. economy in terminal decline.

11 May. 2016 German GDP Growth Likely Rose Strongly in the First Quarter (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production data in Germany were downbeat. Output fell 1.3% month-to-month in March, pushing the year-over-over rate down to 0.3%, from 2.0% in February. Production was held back by weakness in manufacturing and a plunge in construction, Meanwhile, energy output rebounded slightly following last month's fall. Over Q1 as a whole, though, the industrial sector performed strongly.

11 Jan. 2016 Did German GDP Growth Slow Significantly in Q4? (Publication Centre)

Industrial production and trade data on Friday ended last week on a downbeat note, amid otherwise solid economic reports. In Germany, industrial output fell 0.3% month-to-month in November, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.1% from a revised 0.4% in October. The details, however, were better than the headline. Production was hit by a 3.3% plunge in capital goods output, offsetting gains in all other key sectors, and net revisions added 0.3% to the October data.

12 Dec. 2014 Mexico's Data have been Upbeat but Downside Risks are Growing (Publication Centre)

Recent Mexican data have been upbeat, supporting our view that a gradual recovery is underway. In the key auto sector, for example, production increased 11.4% year-over-year in November, while exports rose 5.8% year-over-year in October.

12 Feb. 2016 Mexico's Industrial Economy Struggled in Q4 - Better Ahead? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Mexican industrial data painted a downbeat picture of the sector at the end of last year, and highlighted the downside risks facing the economy in the first half of this year. Industrial output fell 0.1% month-to-month and was flat year over-year in December, with weakness in all sectors except manufacturing. Overall, industrial activity expanded by only 0.2% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace since late 2013.

12 February 2019 Mexican Manufacturing set to Struggle in the First Half (Publication Centre)

The Mexican industrial sector is struggling. December industrial output fell 0.4% month-to-month, the third consecutive drop, driven mainly by a similar decline in mining/oil output.

12 February 2018 Chinese Inflation Moderates but Real Incomes are Under Pressure (Publication Centre)

Chinese CPI inflation trends point to diminishing wage growth, as the services sector begins to struggle with the influx of labour displaced by the industrial productivity drive.

12 Feb. 2016 More Downside Retail Sales Risk, Thanks to Gas, Cheaper Imports (Publication Centre)

Outside the battered energy sector, the most consistently disconcerting economic numbers last year, in the eyes of the markets, were the monthly retail sales data. Non-auto sales undershot consensus forecasts in nine of the 12 months in 2015, with a median shortfall of 0.3%.

14 July. 2015 Did Retail Sales Stutter In June after May's Strength? (Publication Centre)

We are a bit uneasy about today's data on economic activity. The NFIB index of activity in the small business sector is likely to undershoot consensus expectations, while retail sales are something of a black hole, at least at the core level, where we have no reliable month-to-month advance indicators. Our bullish view on the underlying state of the economy, and its likely second-half performance, hasn't changed, but perceptions count in the short-term and these reports will help set the market mood just ahead of Chair Yellen's Testimony tomorrow.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 4 Mar 2020 (Publication Centre)

Smaller services sector firms worse hit by virus containment. Korean virus response notches up in the wake of the Fed move.

9 June. 2016 The Inventory Rundown isn't Over, but the Intensity Will Soon Diminish (Publication Centre)

The collapse in capital spending in the oil sector last year was the biggest single drag on the manufacturing sector, by far. The strong dollar hurt too, as did the slowdown in growth in China, but most companies don't export anything. Capex has fallen in proportion to the drop in oil prices, so our first chart strongly suggests that the bottom of the cycle is now very near.

9 June. 2016 Eurozone Credit Markets Cheer as ECB Private QE Begins (Publication Centre)

The ECB's corporate bond purchase program began yesterday with purchases concentrated in utilities and telecoms, according to media sources. This is consistent with the structure of the market, and the fact that bond issues by firms in these sectors are the largest and most liquid. But debt issued by consumer staples firms likely also featured prominently.

9 Jan. 2015 Weak Manufacturing amid Signs of Strength in Consumption (Publication Centre)

New orders data released yesterday for Germany confirmed that weakness in the manufacturing sector remains a key challenge for the economy. Factory orders fell 2.4% month-on-month in November, equivalent to a 0.4% fall year-over-year.

9 Feb. 2015 The German economy is improving: Q4 GDP will beat consensus (Publication Centre)

German industrial production data were presented by Bloomberg News as signs that the recovery is "gathering momentum", but it is slightly premature to make that call. Narrow money growth is currently sending a strong signal of higher GDP growth this year in the euro area, but the message from the manufacturing sector is still one of stabilisation rather than acceleration.

23 Mar. 2015 Manufacturing remains the key driver of the EZ business cycle (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy is becoming increasingly service-oriented. The private services sector has contributed just over 50% of gross value added-- GVA -- in the past three years, up from 44% in the seven years before the crash of 2008.

9 Nov. 2015 Investors Should Brace for a Poor German Q3 GDP Report (Publication Centre)

Friday's industrial production data capped another dreadful week for German manufacturing. Output fell 1.1% month-to-month in September, pushing the year-over-year rate lower to 0.2%, from a revised 2.9% in August. The 0.6% upward revision of the previous month's data makes the data slightly less awful than the headline, but the details showed weakness across all core sectors. The underlying trend in production is stable at about 1.2% year-over-year, but downbeat new orders suggest it will weaken in the fourth quarter.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

A questionably stable monthly increase in Chinese production. Retail sales in China are back in the black, but not in volume terms. The recovery in manufacturing capex in China is starting to catch-up to the tertiary sector.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 15 May 2019 (Publication Centre)

Our caution over China's March industrial production spike was justified. Chinese retail sales growth hits lows. Chinese FAI growth suggests private sector policy loosening isn't working. Japan's M2 growth upturn is a welcome break, but needs to be sustained. Korean unemployment jumps in April, showing the limits of the government's hiring spree.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 1 July 2019 (Publication Centre)

Tankan reinforces our impression of a nasty Q2. China's manufacturing PMIs show why the authorities are eager for a trade deal. China's non-manufacturing sector holds steady for now. Korean exports disappointed in June, but this probably is as bad as it will get. Ignore Korea's volatile PMI readings... sentiment is improving gradually.

9 October 2018 German Manufacturing Slowed Sharply in Q3, Denting Growth (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's industrial production data in Germany were better than we feared. Output slipped 0.3% month-to-month in August, depressing the year- over-rate to -0.4% from 1.6% in July, a minor fall given evidence of a big hit from weakness in the auto sector ahead of the EU emissions tests.

9 December. 2016 The Oil Hit Spread Widely Across the Economy - Now, it's Over (Publication Centre)

A core element of our relatively upbeat macro view before the implementation of fiscal stimulus under the new administration is that the ending of the drag from falling capex in the oil sector will have quite wide, positive implications for growth. The recovery in direct oil sector spending is clear enough; it will just track the rising rig count, as usual.

9 Dec. 2014 Stable, But not Yet Signs of Strong Growth in the German Economy (Publication Centre)

The German manufacturing sector is showing signs of stabilisation with industrial production rising 0.2% month-on-month in October, equivalent to 0.8% year-over- year. This is consistent with a decent retracement in production this quarter, but growth is still only barely above zero.

6 September 2018 Eurozone Retail Sales Details Look Better than the Headline (Publication Centre)

The EZ retail sector slowed at the start of Q3, though only slightly.

6 Oct. 2015 Will the Industrial Slowdown Drag Down the Rest of the Economy? (Publication Centre)

The elevated September ISM non-manufacturing index reported yesterday--it dipped to 56.9 but remains very high by historical standards--again served to underscore the depth of the bifurcation in the economy. The services sector, boosted by the collapse in gasoline prices and the strong dollar, is massively outperforming the woebegone manufacturing sector.

6 Nov. 2015 Brazil's Industrial Recession Deepens - Chile's Recovery in Place (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector continues to suffer, despite September's report surprising marginally on the upside. Output contracted 1.3% month-to-month in September, after a 0.9% fall in August, pushing the year over-year rate down to -10.9% down from -8.8% in August. This is the biggest drop since April 2009. Output has fallen an eye-popping -7.4% year-to-date, and in the third quarter alone activity contracted by 3.2% quarter-on-quarter, in line with our vie w for a 1.2% contraction in real GDP for the third quarter.

6 May. 2016 Will the Periphery's Resilience to Political Risks Persist? (Publication Centre)

Political risks in the periphery have simmered constantly during this cyclical recovery, but they have increased recently. In Italy, the government is scrambling to find a solution to rid its ailing banking sector of bad loans. But recapitalisation via a bad bank is not possible under new EU rules.

8 Dec. 2015 Energy Production Will Depress German Industrial Output in Q4 (Publication Centre)

German industrial output was off to a sluggish start in the fourth quarter. Production eked out a marginal 0.2% month-to-month gain in October, pushing the year-over-year rate down to 0.0% from a revised 0.4% in September. Manufacturing output rose 0.6%, led by a 2.7% jump in production of capital goods, but the underlying trend in the sector overall is flat. On a more positive note, construction output rose 0.7% month-to-month in October, and leading indicators suggest this could be the beginning of a string of gains, lifting investment spending in coming quarters.

8 July 2019 Will the Weakness of Mexican Capex and Consumption Continue? (Publication Centre)

Data released last week confirmed that Mexico's economy stumbled in the first half of the year, hurt by a temporary shocks in both the industrial and services sectors, and heightened political uncertainty, due to policy mistakes at the outset of AMLO's presidency.

8 May 2019 Manufacturing in Germany is Not Out of the Woods Yet (Publication Centre)

Demand in German manufacturing rebounded slightly at the end of Q1, though the overall picture for the sector remains grim.

8 May 2018 Small Firms' Sentiment Likely has Weakened Further, but no Disaster (Publication Centre)

We're looking forward to today's April NFIB survey of activity and sentiment in the small business sector with some trepidation.

8 June. April Production to Underline Poor Prospects for Q2 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

April's production data, released today, look set to indicate that the industrial sector's recession--its third in the last eight years--deepened in the second quarter. We think the consensus expectation that industrial production held steady in April is too upbeat. We look for a 0.3% month-to-month drop.

8 July. 2015 Evidence, so far, Points to Strong Q2 GDP Print in Germany (Publication Centre)

German GDP growth likely accelerated in the second quarter, following a disappointing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter expansion in Q1. Growth in the manufacturing sector remains modest, and the trend in consumers' spending remains solid. Industrial production was unchanged in May, pushing year-over-year growth to 2.1% from a revised 1.1% in April.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 16 Mar 2020 part 2 (Publication Centre)

China's retail sector is on its knees at best. China's IP data suggest that the horrendous PMIs underplayed the carnage. A damning FAI report... tertiary capex should rebound, but the hit to global demand will hold back the secondary industry. China's property market grounds to a halt in February. The Bank of Korea steps in with an emergency cut, despite falling new infections locally.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 20 Dec 2019 (Publication Centre)

Japan's CPI inflation has troughed; Japan's budget forecasts for next year are on the rosy side; China's LPR stability reflects precarious banking sector; Korea should make a complete exit from PPI deflation this month

UK Datanote U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Survey, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Still understating the manufacturing sector's recovery.

U.K. Datanote: U.K. Money and Credit, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: More evidence of momentum in the household sector.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, May 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Terrible, but a modest upturn in key sectors is emerging.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Mexico, August (Publication Centre)

In one line: A mixed industrial picture; manufacturing output is weakening, but other sectors seem to be reviving.

UK Datanote: Markit CIPS Construction Survey, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: Overall stagnation masks sub-sector divergence.

UK Datanote: U.K. GDP, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: Downside surprise all due to erratic construction output; the services sector still is coping well.

US Datanote: U.S. NFIB Survey, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The small business sector is still depressed, despite the headline uptick.

US Datanote: U.S. New Home Sales, June 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Housing is the strongest major sector of the economy; more to come.

US Datanote: U.S. Employment, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Private sector momentum has slowed, with worse to come in September.

UK Datanote: U.K. Markit CIPS Construction Survey, December (Publication Centre)

In one line: Hit by election-related indecision in the public sector; expect a recovery 2020.

LatAm Datanote: Industrial Production, Brazil, October (Publication Centre)

In one line: A decent start to Q4 for the industrial sector.

LatAm Datanote: Economic Activity Index, Brazil, April (Publication Centre)

In one line: An ugly start to the second quarter, despite a modest improvement in sectoral data.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 June 2020 (Publication Centre)

Chinese manufacturing powers through Beijing's partial lockdown. The hot construction sector in China took a small breather in June. Unemployment in Japan is on track to breach the 3% mark for the first time since 2017. No immediate relief for Japanese industry from the withdrawal of the state of emergency. There is light at the end of the tunnel for the downturn in Korean industry.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 3 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Encouraging momentum from China's private sector in the lead-up to Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 24 Apr 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan will be in deflation in a few months. Stimulus fails to buoy Japan's construction sector. China's smaller TMLF injection means the facility has been superseded, while interbank rates already are low.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 23 September 2020 (Publication Centre)

Japan's recovery is on track--just--with its second wave receding. Japan's construction sector rebounded modestly at the start of Q3.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 30 Sept 2019 (Publication Centre)

China's manufacturing PMIs suggest the private sector is recovering ahead of SoEs. China's non-manufacturing PMI again masks construction/services cross currents. Japan's industrial production continues to languish. OK so now Japanese households are front-loading spending. Korean IP corrects from the bumper July; the momentum from the Q2 recovery is waning.

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 July 2020 (Publication Centre)

Punchy output gains from China's manufacturers will soon give way. A mixed bag for China's non-manufacturing sectors at the start of Q3. Don't be fooled by the June slip in Japan's unemployment rate. Expect only a mild recovery in Japanese industrial production, for now. Korean production ended Q2 on a strong note.

Global Datanote: U.S. Employment, August 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: Private sector momentum has slowed, with worse to come in September.

Global Datanote: Economic activity index, Brazil, July 2020 (Publication Centre)

In one line: The recovery continues, but some sectors are struggling,

ASIAN DATA WRAP 31 Oct 2019 (Publication Centre)

BoJ remains in an alternate reality in order to avoid a rate cut, underlining its concerns over damage to the financial sector. Chances of a serious PBoC blunder are rising. No "Phase 1" sentiment lift for Chinese manufacturers. A sharp fall in China's official services gauge was due. This probably is as good as it'll get for Japanese industrial production. Korean industrial production remains volatile, but the trend is decisively up.

6 Mar. 2015 The BCB Hikes Again But The Tightening Cycle is Not Quite Over (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian industrial sector started this year on a very downbeat note, despite a 2% month-to-month jump in output. The underlying trend in activity is still very weak. Production fell 5.2% year-over-year.

9 May. 2016 Payrolls Will Rebound--Maybe not in May--and Wages Are Rising (Publication Centre)

The undershoot in April payrolls, relative to the consensus, is a story of a fluke number in just one sector. Retail payrolls reportedly shrank by 3K, after rising by an average of 52K over the previous six months. Our first chart shows clearly that the retail payrolls are quite volatile over short periods, with sudden and often inexplicable swings in both directions quite common.

25 October. 2016 Can the Government Afford to Sacrifice the City? (Publication Centre)

When you read between the lines of its public statements on Brexit, the Government appears to be prioritising controlling immigration over maintaining unfettered access to the single market, much to the chagrin of the financial sector.

27 Oct. 2015 Capital Goods Orders are Stabilizing, at Least - Oil Hit Fading (Publication Centre)

The durable goods numbers were among the first short-term indicators to warn clearly of the hit to manufacturing from the rollover in oil sector capex, which began last fall. The trend in core capital goods orders was rising strongly before oil firms began to cut back, with the year-over-year rate peaking at 11.9% in September. Leading capex indicators in the small business sector remained quite robust, but just nine months later, core capex orders were down 6.4% year-over-year, following annualized declines of more than 14% in both the fourth quarter of 2014 and the first quarter of this year.

27 Nov 2019 The GM Strike Likely Depressed October Orders, Core Soft too? (Publication Centre)

Today's wave of data will bring new information on the industrial sector, consumers, the labor market, and housing, as well as revisions to the third quarter GDP numbers.

27 March 2017 Mexico - Under Short-Term Inflation Pressures, and Hoping for Growth (Publication Centre)

The balance of risks to activity in Mexico this year is still tilted to the downside, even though recent data have been mixed. Key indicators show that the manufacturing sector is gathering strength on the back of lagged effect of the MXN's sell-off last year, and the improving U.S. economy.

28 Oct. 2015 Domestic Data Point to Robust Third Quarter Growth in Mexico (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy is recovering gradually, despite many external headwinds. This week, the IGAE economic activity index--a monthly proxy for GDP--rose a solid 2.6% year-over-year in August, up from 2.0% in July. In the first half the economy grew on average 2.4%. The report showed increases in all three sectors, most notably agriculture, up 8.2% year-over-year, followed by services, 3.3%, and industrial activities, with a 1.0% gain.

29 Apr. 2015 Growth in the first quarter, but not much? (Publication Centre)

The first estimate of Q1 growth will show that the economy struggled in the face of the severe winter and, to a lesser extent, the rollover in capital spending in the oil sector. But the weather hit appears to have been much smaller than last year, when the economy shrank at a 2.1% rate in the first quarter; this time, we think the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.1%.

3 Dec. 2014 Decent Consumption, Dreadful Investment in Eurozone GDP (Publication Centre)

Retail sales data later today will give us the first hard data from the fourth quarter, and the story should be altogether more positive than the still downbeat message from the manufacturing sector.

3 August 2018 Strong Job Growth Likely Continued in June Wage Gains Still Modest (Publication Centre)

We look for a 210K increase in July payrolls. That would be consistent with the message from an array of private sector surveys, as well as the recent trend.

29 Oct 2019 Can we Rely on M1 as a Leading Indicator in the Eurozone (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's EZ money supply data confirmed that liquidity conditions in the private sector improved in Q3, despite the dip in the headline.

29 January 2019 Industrial Profits in China Remain Terrible, Underneath the Surface (Publication Centre)

China's industrial profits data for December showed continued weakness in the sector, with no clear signs that a turnaround is in the offing.

27 Jan. 2016 Will Mexico's Household Spending Remain the Bright Spot in 2016? (Publication Centre)

Mexico's economy continues to bring good news, despite the tough external environment for all EM economies. According to the economic activity index, a monthly proxy for GDP, growth gained further momentum in Q4. Activity rose 2.7% year-over-year in November, supported by stronger services activities, which expanded 0.3% month-to-month. The services sector has been the main driver of the current cycle, growing 3.8% year-over-year in November, bolstering our optimism about the domestic economy in the near-term.

23 Oct. 2015 Manufacturing Slowdown is Set to Intensify as Exports Drop Further (Publication Centre)

The woes of the manufacturing sector are likely to intensify over the next few months, even if--as we expect--overall economic growth picks up. The core problem is the strong dollar, which is hammering exporters, as our first chart shows. The slowdown in growth in China and other emerging markets is hurting too, but this is part of the reason why the dollar is strong in the first place.

26 April 2017 Weaker Growth in Tax Receipts Adds to Slowdown Signs (Publication Centre)

March's public sector borrowing figures brought more signs that the economy has lost considerable momentum this year. Borrowing, on the PSNB excluding public sector banks measure, came in at £5.1B in March, up slightly from £4.3B in March 2016.

25 January 2017 The EZ Economy is Performing Strongly, But Inflation is Picking Up (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone economy is in fine shape, according to the latest PMI data. The composite EZ PMI fell trivially to 54.3 in January, but remains strong. A marginal dip in the services index offset a small increase in the manufacturing PMI to a cyclical high of 55.1. These data tell a story of a strong private sector that continues to support GDP growth.

25 July. 2016 EZ Sentiment Looks Resilient in the Face of Brexit...For Now (Publication Centre)

Friday's July PMI reports presented investors with a rather confusing story. The composite PMI in the Eurozone fell trivially to 52.9 in July, from 53.1 in June, despite rising PMIs in Germany and France. The final data on 3 August will give the full story, but Markit noted that private sector growth outside the core slowed to its weakest pace since December 2014.

25 Oct 2019 Capex is Falling, and a Huge Aircraft Inventory Overhang is Building (Publication Centre)

The gaps in the third quarter GDP data are still quite large, with no numbers yet for September international trade or the public sector, but we're now thinking that growth likely was less than 11⁄2%.

26 October. 2016 The German Economy Fired on All Cylinders at the Start of Q4 (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's IFO survey confirmed that the private business sector in Germany was off to a flying start in Q4. The headline business climate index rose to 110.5 in October, from 109.5 in September, lifted mainly by a rise in the expectations index to a 30-month high of 106.5.

26 September. 2016 When Will Manufacturing Shake off the Summertime Blues (Publication Centre)

We're still no nearer to a definitive answer to the question of what went wrong in the manufacturing sector over the summer, when we expected to see things improving on the back of the rebound in activity in the mining sector, rising export orders and an end to the domestic inventory correction. Instead, the August surveys dropped, and September reports so far are, if anything, a bit worse.

24 October. 2016 Tax Receipt Shortfall Casts Doubt on Economy's Resilience (Publication Centre)

Progress in reducing the budget deficit has ground to a virtual halt, despite the ongoing fiscal consolidation. Public sector net borrowing excluding public sector banks--PSNB ex.--was £10.6B in September, exceeding the £9.3B borrowed in the same month last year.

6 January 2017 Brazil's Industrial Recovery is Underway, but it is Painfully Slow (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's Brazilian industrial production data continue to tell a story of a slow business cycle upturn. Output rose 0.2% month-to-month in November, after a downwardly revised 1.2% plunge in October. The year-over-year rate, though, jumped to -1.1%, from -7.3% in October. The underlying trend is now on the mend, following weakness in Q3 and early Q4. Output rose in November three of the four major categories and in 13 of the 24 sectors.

25 August. 2016 The Collapse in Core Capex Orders is Over, Where's the Rebound? (Publication Centre)

The alarming-looking decline in core capital goods orders since late 2014 has been substantially due, in our view, to the rollover in investment in the mining sector. But the 29% jump in the number of oil rigs in operation, since the mid-May low, makes it clear that the collapse is over.

25 Jan. 2016 Oil Capex Crash Nearly Over - What Happens Next to Consumers? (Publication Centre)

If we had known back in June 2014 that oil prices would drop to about $30, the collapse in capital spending in the oil sector would not have been a surprise. Spending on well-drilling, which accounts for about three quarters of oil capex, has dropped in line with the fall in prices, after a short lag, as our first chart shows. We think spending on equipment has tracked the fall in oil prices, too.

3 Dec. 2015 Low Inflation Expectations Won't Become Self-Fulfilling (Publication Centre)

Households' inflation expectations have fallen again over the last few months, but we doubt they will constrain the forthcoming rebound in actual inflation. Past experience shows that inflation expectations are more of a coincident than a leading indicator of inflation. In addition, inflation is weakest right now in sectors where demand is relatively insensitive to price changes, so, when retailers' costs rise, they won't pay much heed to households' expectations.

28 April 2017 Current Account in Brazil Still Improving, But not for Long (Publication Centre)

Brazil's recovery has been steady in recent months, and Q1 likely will mark the end of the recession. The gradual recovery of the industrial and agricultural sectors has been the highlight, thanks to improving external demand, the lagged effect of the more competitive BRL, and the more stable political situation, which has boosted sentiment.

3 January 2018 See no Evil, Hear no Evil in Eurozone Manufacturing? (Publication Centre)

The Eurozone manufacturing sector finished 2017 on a strong note. The headline PMI increased to a cyclical high of 60.6 in December, from 60.1 in November, in line with the initial estimate.

4 May 2018 A Solid Start to the Year for Chile's Economy, Will the Trend Continue? (Publication Centre)

This week's March economic activity reports in Chile have been relatively strong, with the industrial sector expanding briskly and retail sales solid.

4 July 2017 Why Hasn't EZ Industrial Output Responded to the PMIs? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's PMI data confirmed that the EZ manufacturing sector is in rude health. The manufacturing PMI in the euro area rose to a cyclical high of 57.4 in June, from 57.0 in May, slightly above the first estimate. New orders and output growth are robust, pushing work backlogs higher and helping to sustain employment growth.

4 Dec. 2015 A Bad Day for ECB Doves - New Policies Fall Short of Expectations (Publication Centre)

On all accounts, the ECB announced a significant addition to its stimulus program yesterday. The central bank cut the deposit rate by 0.1%, to -0.3%, and extended the duration of QE until March 2017. The ECB also increased the scope of eligible assets to include regional and local government debt; decided to re-invest principal bond payments; and affirmed its commitment to long-term refinancing operations in the financial sector for as long as necessary. The measures were not agreed upon unanimously, but the majority was, according to Mr. Draghi, "very large".

4 August. 2016 Will the ECB Take The Markets' Hint on Negative Interest Rates? (Publication Centre)

Markets initially applauded the ECB for its bold actions, but the tune has changed recently. Negative interest rates, in particular, have been vilified for their margin destroying effect in the banking sector. Our first chart shows that the relative performance of financials in the EZ equity market has dwindled steadily in line with the plunge in yields.

5 December 2017 ISM Non-manufacturing Set for Clear Correction. Don't Worry (Publication Centre)

Last week's strong ISM manufacturing survey for November likely will be followed by robust data for the non-manufacturing sector today, but the headline index, like its industrial counterpart, likely will dip a bit.

5 October 2018 Should Surveys Pointing to Higher Core Goods Inflation be Trusted? (Publication Centre)

The CPI inflation rate for non-energy industrial goods--core goods, for short--has tracked past movements in trade-weighted sterling closely over the last ten years, because virtually all goods in this sector are imported.

6 December. 2016 PMI Data Signal a Solid End to 2016 for the EZ Economy (Publication Centre)

The final EZ PMI data for November yesterday confirmed that the composite index in the Eurozone rose to an 11-month high of 53.9, from 53.3 in October. The key driver was an improvement in services, boosted by stronger data in all the major economies. Manufacturing activity also improved, though, and the details showed that new business growth was robust in both sectors.

6 December 2017 Don't Take Seriously Surveys Pointing to Faster Q4 GDP Growth (Publication Centre)

November's Markit/CIPS surveys for the manufacturing, construction and services sectors suggest that GDP growth is on track to strengthen a touch in Q4.

6 December 2016 Expect More Downbeat Data From Chile, the BCCh Will Ease Soon (Publication Centre)

Chile's Imacec index confirmed that economic growth is slowing. The Imacec, a monthly proxy for GDP, fell 1.1 month-to-month in October, pushing the year-over-year rate down to -0.4% from an already soft 1.4% in September. This marks the first annual contraction since October 2009, underscoring Chile's fragility. Mining activity plunged 7.1% year-over-year in October, while the non-mining sector rose just 0.3%, supported by services.

6 April 2017 Firms in the EZ are Investing Again, but What About Wages? (Publication Centre)

Readers have asked us about the availability of flow-of-funds data in the Eurozone similar to the detailed U.S. reports. The ECB's sector accounts come close and cover a lot of ground, but are also released with a lag. We can't cover all sectors in one Monitor, but the investment data for non-financial firms, excluding construction, suggest that investment growth slowed last year.

4 April 2019 It's Hard to Find the Signal Behind the ADP Noise in March (Publication Centre)

We can think of at least three reasons for the apparent softness of ADP's March private sector employment reading.

4 July 2017 Mr Abe Trounced in Tokyo Elections just as Recovery Gains Traction (Publication Centre)

The Tankan survey powered ahead in Q2, pulling away from Q1 and mostly beating consensus. This confirms our impression of the strength of the recovery ,just as Prime Minister Abe's Liberal Democratic Party is trounced at the polls in Tokyo. The drubbing is understandable as the main benefits of Abenomics have gone to the business sector, at the expense of the household sector.

4 Apr. 2016 Did the Brazilian Industrial Slump Ease Significantly in Q1? (Publication Centre)

The Brazilian manufacturing sector remains very depressed by weak end-demand, but the misery is easing, at the margin. Industrial production fell 2.5% month-to-month in February, equivalent to an eye-watering 9.8% contraction year-over-year, but this was rather less bad than the 13.6% slump in January.

3 Nov. 2015 Manufacturing Unlikely to be Past the Worst (Publication Centre)

The sharp and unexpected improvement in the Markit/CIPS manufacturing survey in October released on Monday raised hopes that the recession in the industrial sector might be over. A cool look at the evidence, however, suggests that this probably is just wishful thinking.

3 May 2017 April's Higher Manufacturing PMI Won't Be Sustained (Publication Centre)

The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI shot up to a three-year high of 57.3 in April, from 54.2 in March, bringing an end to the run of downbeat news on the economy. The performance of the U.K. manufacturing sector, however, remains underwhelming, given the magnitude of sterling's depreciation.

3 June 2020 Global Monitor Are negative rates coming to the UK? (Publication Centre)

• U.S. - A squeeze on wages will keep a lid on inflation • EUROZONE - EZ consumption is collapsing, but M1 is soaring • U.K. - No negative rates in the U.K., but we expect a boost to the TFSME • ASIA - China's industrial sector is still wobbling • LATAM - The Brazilian economy is in a world of pain

3 January 2018 Strong Growth in Manufacturing Output Won't be Sustained in 2018 (Publication Centre)

The manufacturing sector appears to have finished 2017 on a strong note. The Markit/CIPS manufacturing PMI fell to 56.3 in December from 58.2 in November, but it remained above its 12-month average, 55.9.

3 October 2017 Manufacturing Powers Ahead, Supported by External Demand (Publication Centre)

The Asian PMIs point to a strengthening manufacturing sector in September but external demand is the driver.

3 November 2017 Brazilian Manufacturing Continued to Support the Recovery in Q3 (Publication Centre)

Brazil's industrial sector continued to support the economy in Q3. The underlying tr end in output is rising and leading indicators point to further growth in the near term.

30 Nov. 2015 Capex to Rebound--Modestly--as the Oil Hit Is Overtaken (Publication Centre)

Capex data by industry are available only on an annual basis, with a very long lag, so we can't directly observe the impact the collapse in the oil sector has had on total equipment spending. But we can make the simple observation that orders for non-defense capital goods were rising strongly and quite steadily-- allowing for the considerable noise in the data--from mid-2013 through mid-2014, before crashing by 9% between their September peak and the February low. It cannot be a coincidence that this followed a 55% plunge in oil prices.

30 Oct. 2015 Can the Recovery in Business Investment Maintain Its Pace? (Publication Centre)

Business investment has punched above its weight in the economic recovery from the crash of 2008; annual real growth in capex has averaged 5% over the last five years, greatly exceeding GDP growth of 2%. This recovery is unlikely to grind to a halt soon, since profit margins are still high and borrowing costs will remain low. But corporate balance sheets are not quite as robust as they seem, while capex in the investment-intensive oil sector still has a lot further to fall.

BBC News - Government borrowing in June highest since 2015 (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Public Sector borrowing

5 July 2018 ADP Likely to Report Another Solid Gain in Payrolls (Publication Centre)

Payroll growth rebounded to 223K in May, after two sub-200K readings, and we're expecting today's June ADP report to signal that labor demand remains strong.

Question of the Week, WC 6th Jan 2020 (Media Centre)

Will EZ services hold their own amid weakness in manufacturing?

THE GUARDIAN - UK manufacturing growth slows in November (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

WALL STREET JOURNAL - ISM Services Report Alleviates Market's Economic Anxiety (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing data release

Wall Street Journal - U.S. Durable-Goods Orders Post Biggest Jump in a Year (Media Centre)

Chief U.S. Economist Ian Shepherdson on U.S. Durable Goods Orders

THE TELEGRAPH - UK construction declines for third straight month (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. construction

THE GUARDIAN - UK manufacturing expects hard winter ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

TELEGRAPH - UK house prices slip as market feels a chill (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. House Prices

Guardian - UK economy already flatlining before coronavirus, figures reveal (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. GDP in February

GUARDIAN - UK service companies anxious about year ahead (Media Centre)

Chief U.K.. economist Samuel Tombs comments on U.K. PMI

INDEPENDENT - The chart that shows the UK economic recovery is "on its knees" (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on the U.K. PMI data, April

Question of the Week, WC 11th June (Media Centre)

Are there any signs that the U.S. tax cuts and/or regulatory relaxation are stimulating increased non-residential fixed investment?

Guardian - Record rise in import costs dents growth in UK manufacturing (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

Financial Times - Uptick in French business confidence dulled by manufacturing (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on French Business Confidence

BBC - Manufacturing shrinks as Brexit stockpiling halts (Media Centre)

Samuel Tombs on U.K. Manufacturing

BLOOMBERG - Mexico GDP Growth Beats Forecasts as Services Provide Boost (Media Centre)

Andres Abadia on Mexico GDP Growth

Financial Times - Analysts warn rise in UK retail sales may be a 'blip' (Media Centre)

Chief U.K. Economist Samuel Tombs ok U.K. Retail Sales

Question of the Week, WC 11th November (Media Centre)

Is Japan's pending 15-month anything to write home about?

Question of the Week, WC 25th June (Media Centre)

With the Mexican Elections on July 1st, our Chief Latam Economist Andres Abadia has received many questions about the possible outcomes and how this will affect the Mexican economy going forward.

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