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The trend rate of increase in private payrolls in the months before Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was about 240K per month.
Core inflation probably will remain close to June's 2.3% rate for the next few months.
The odds favor--just--an end to the three-month streak of solid 0.2% increases in the core CPI with the release of today's January report.
The jump in core inflation in recent months is about as alarming as the sudden decline in the same period last year; that is, not very.
The headline April CPI, due today, will be boosted slightly by rising gasoline prices.
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