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4 September 2017 Recovery will Continue in H2, but Fiscal Reforms are Key (Publication Centre)

Brazil's economy likely will bounce back during the second half of this year and into 2018, after the second quarter was marred by political risk.

11 January 2018 Will France Reap the Rewards of Supply-Side Reforms in 2018? (Publication Centre)

Momentum in French manufacturing eased slightly in November, but the setback was modest. Industrial production dipped 0.5% month-to-month, only partially reversing the revised 1.7% jump in October.

26 Jan. 2015 Banxico on Hold, Thanks to Slowing Inflation--But No Easing (Publication Centre)

Mexican inflation fell sharply in the first two weeks of January, dipping by 0.2% from two weeks earlier, thanks to lower energy prices and a reduction in long-distance phone tariffs. Telecom reform explains about 15bp of the headline reduction.

13 Feb. 2015 A Tough 2015 Ahead for Brazil as Downside Risks to Growth Intensify (Publication Centre)

Over the last few months we have started to see hard evidence of Brazil's deceleration, and, as we have argued in previous Monitors, the slowdown is now set to become more visible. Over the coming weeks, markets will focus on whether Brazil is already in recession, its likely severity, and how the country will get out of this mess.

6 Feb. 2015 Chilean Growth Is Improving, But China's Slowdown Is A Worry (Publication Centre)

Chilean GDP growth hit bottom in August, but activity is now picking up and will gather speed over the coming quarters. The tailwinds from lower oil prices and fiscal stimulus will soon be visible in the activity data.

26 July 2017 China's Reform Scorecard Part 1: Labour Market and Demographics (Publication Centre)

Over the next 18 months we expect to see interest rates break out further on the upside. Initially, we expect developed market growth to be resilient to that.

13 September 2017 The French Labour Market is on the Up. Will Reforms Follow? (Publication Centre)

In theory, the headline labour market data in France should be a source of comfort and support for the new government.

16 May 2017 Eurozone Reforms Likely are Coming, but Patience is Needed (Publication Centre)

Mr. Macron will be in Berlin today with the message that France wants a strong Eurozone and a tight relationship with Germany. Friendly overtures between Paris and Berlin are good news for investors; they reduce political uncertainty while increasing the chance that the economic recovery will continue. But it is too early to get excited about closer fiscal coordination, let alone a common EZ fiscal policy and bond issuance.

9 September. 2016 Political Turbulence in Mexico Won't Derail Fiscal Consolidation (Publication Centre)

Political developments are clouding the horizon in Mexico, at least temporarily. Mexico's Finance Minister Luis Videgaray, the mastermind behind President Enrique Peña Nieto's most important economic reforms, resigned on Wednesday. José Antonio Meade, a former finance chief, has been tapped to replace him.

6 June. Political Instability to Loom Large, if Referendum is Close Either Way (Publication Centre)

Would the U.K. inevitably leave the E.U. if a majority of the electorate voted for Brexit on June 23? Repeatedly, the Government has quelled speculation that it will call for a second referendum on an improved package of E.U. reforms after a Brexit vote on June 23. But unsuccessful referendums have been followed up with second plebiscites elsewhere in Europe.

20 September 2017 Is China set to Open Further its Financial Sector to Foreigners? (Publication Centre)

Bloomberg reported on Monday that the PBoC is drafting a package of reforms to give foreign investors greater access to the China's financial services sector. This could involve allowing foreign institutions to control their local joint ventures and raising the 25% ceiling on foreign ownership of Chinese banks.

18 January 2017 The MXN Will Struggle in the Near-Term as Markets Assess Trump (Publication Centre)

Donald Trump's inauguration on Friday might mark the beginning of a new era for both the U.S. and the global economy. For commodity-producing Latam countries, such as Chile, Peru and Colombia, attention will shift to Trump's proposed tax reforms, pro-business agenda and planning infrastructure spending. Mexico, on the other hand, will be grappling with Mr. Trump's trade and immigration policies.

13 June 2017 Debt-Fuelled Korean Consumption is at Risk as Rates Rise (Publication Centre)

When Park Geun-hye came to power in Korea 2013, it was to cheers of "economic democratisation". At the time, I wrote a report with a list of reforms that would be needed for Korea to "economically democratise".

21 November 2017 Cutting Stamp Duty for FTBs Will Boost Prices, not Home Ownership (Publication Centre)

Reforms to Stamp Duty Land Tax paid by first-time buyers likely will take centre stage in the Budget. At the Conservatives' party conference, Theresa May pledged another £10B to expand the Help to Buy Scheme, which helps first-time buyers obtain a mortgage which just a 5% deposit.

23 Feb. 2015 Deal between EU and Greece will avert disaster in the short run (Publication Centre)

The Eurogroup finally agreed on a four-month financing extension for Greece late Friday evening, conditional on Syriza presenting a satisfactory list of reforms later today. At the press conference, Eurogroup President Dijsselboem emphasized that commitments always come before money.

30 Sept. 2015 Mexico's Labor Market Reflects Its Upbeat Domestic Story (Publication Centre)

Mexico's data over the last few weeks have confirmed our view that private consumption remains the key driver of the current economic cycle. Solid economic fundamentals, thanks to stimulative monetary policy and structural reforms, have supported the domestic economy in recent quarters. Falling inflation has also been a key driver, slowing to 2.5% by mid-September, a record low, from an average of 4% during 2014.

05 Feb. 2016 The Strong Dollar is Supporting Mexico's Domestic Economy (Publication Centre)

Mexico's structural reforms, robust fundamentals, and its close ties to the U.S. should have conferred a degree of protection from the turmoil in EMs over the past year. But its markets have been hit as hard as other LatAm countries by the sell-off in global markets in recent weeks. The MXN fell about 5% against the USD in January alone, and has dropped by 20% over the last year.

24 July 2017 Not Much Upside for Eurozone Equities in the Rest of 2017 (Publication Centre)

The tailwinds that have propelled Eurozone equities higher since the middle of last year remain place, in principle. In the economy, political uncertainty in the euro area has turned into an opportunity for further integration and reforms, and cyclical momentum in has picked up. And closer to the ground, fundamentals also have improved.

23 June. 2015 More Waiting For Investors, But a Deal With Greece is Coming (Publication Centre)

We sympathize greatly with investors' frustration over endless postponements and new "deadlines" in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors. Syriza delivered a proposal for reforms to the EU and the IMF on Monday morning, welcome d as a "positive step in the right direction" by Eurogroup president Dijsselbloem and Economic and Financial Affairs commissioner Moscovici.

CNBC - Greece hits back at reports of euro zone 'shock' (Media Centre)

Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen on Greece

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