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22 matches for " rate expectation":

15 June 2018 A Classic ECB Decision Day A Dovish Tightening of Policy (Publication Centre)

On a headline level, the ECB conformed to expectations yesterday.

14 Oct 2019 If German CPI Data won't Guide Bunds, Maybe Fiscal Policy will (Publication Centre)

Friday's data added further colour to the September CPI data for the Eurozone.

12 February 2019 Is it Safe to Assume that the ECB Will be on Hold Through 2019 (Publication Centre)

Our suggestion that the ECB could still raise the deposit rate later this year, by 20bp to -0.4%, has met with strong scepticism in recent conversations with readers.

10 Sept 2019 What are EZ Investor Sentiment Data Telling You, if Anything (Publication Centre)

Data yesterday suggest that EZ investor sentiment is on track for a modest recovery in Q3.

17 Sept 2019 Our Take on the Shifts in EZ Bond Markets after the ECB's New Tools (Publication Centre)

From a macroeconomic perspective, the main shift in the ECB's policy stance last week was the change in forward guidance.

19 Aug 2019 Resistance is Futile in the EZ Fixed Income Bull Market... For Now (Publication Centre)

The ECB's communication to markets has been clear this year. In Q1, the central bank changed its stance on the economy towards an emphasis on "downside risks to the outlook".

6 Sept 2019 Sterling Will Struggle to Recover Further this Side of the Election (Publication Centre)

Sterling recovered to $1.23 yesterday, its highest level since late July, in response to the sharp decline in the risk of a no -deal Brexit at the end of October, triggered by MPs' actions.

28 March 2019 Further Signs that Negative Rates are Here to Stay in the EZ (Publication Centre)

Bond yields in the Eurozone took another leg lower yesterday.

24 July 2018 Sterling has Plenty of Scope to Rise in a Soft Brexit Scenario (Publication Centre)

Sterling depreciated further last week as the Prime Minister's Brexit plans were tweaked by Brexiteers and given a lukewarm reception by the European Commission.

24 January 2019 Mr. Draghi Won't Help Already Dovishly-Inclined Markets Today (Publication Centre)

The ECB will deliver a carbon copy of its December meeting today, at least in terms of the main headlines.

1 May 2018 Is the EZ Economy Slowing Faster Than Markets Expect? (Publication Centre)

Yesterday's money supply data in the Eurozone were alarmingly poor.

H2 2017 U.S. Outlook - Brace for a Sustained Shift in Interest Rate Expectations (Publication Centre)

Pantheon Macroeconomics is pleased to make available to you our Outlooks for the second half of 2017 for the US, Eurozone, UK, Asia, and Latin America. These reports present our key views, giving you a concise summary of our economic and policy expectations. If you are interested in seeing publications which you don't already receive, please request a complimentary trial

23 January 2018 Why Have Rate Expectations Stopped Driving EURUSD? (Publication Centre)

In April last year, something odd happened in the FX market.

29 June 2017 A Single Rate Hike Would Risk a Harmful Rise in Rate Expectations (Publication Centre)

The MPC's hawks are framing the interest rate increase they want as a "withdrawal of part of the stimulus that the Committee had injected in August last year", arguing that monetary policy still would be "very supportive" if rates rose to 0.5%, from 0.25%.

15 June. 2015 Unwinding the Double Delusion - Brace for Rising Rate Expectations (Publication Centre)

Markets don't believe the Fed's interest rate forecasts. For the fourth quarter of this year, that's probably right; the FOMC's median projection back in March was 0.63%; that will likely be revised down this week. For the next two years, though, things are different.

3 July 2017 Three Jobs Reports in Nine Weeks set to Shift Market Rate Expectations (Publication Centre)

The next nine weeks bring three jobs reports, which will determine whether the Fed hikes again in September, as we expect, and will also help shape market expectations for December and beyond.

23 May. Is it Premature to Relax About Brexit Risk? (Publication Centre)

Sterling rebounded last week and the probability of a Brexit, implied by betting markets, fell from 30% to 20%. The gap between cable and interest rate expectations, which opened up at the start of this year, appears to have closed completely, as our first chart shows. Sterling's rally in April quickly ran out of steam, but the evidence that support for "Bremain" has risen recently is persuasive.

22 February 2017 Q4 GDP Likely to be Revised up, but Momentum won't Endure (Publication Centre)

We expect the official estimate of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q4 to be revised up to 0.7% today, from last month's preliminary estimate of 0.6%. The consensus forecast is for no revision, so the data likely will boost interest rate expectations and sterling, if we're right.

30 Sept 2019 A Reminder of The Case Against Cutting Bank Rate (Publication Centre)

A dovish speech by external MPC member Michael Saunders was the primary catalyst for a renewed fall in interest rate expectations last week.

7 Dec. 2015 Will the MPC Attempt to Steer the Markets to an Earlier Hike Again? (Publication Centre)

December's meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee is likely to be a quiet affair in comparison to this month's pivotal ECB and Fed meetings. It's hard to see what news would have persuaded other members to join Ian McCafferty in voting to raise interest rates this month. The MPC might comment in the minutes to try to reverse the further fall in market interest rate expectations since its previous meeting, when it already thought they were too low. But the potency of any moderately hawkish guidance may be diluted by further strident comments from the Committee's doves.

10 June 2019 Don't Expect the MPC to Follow in Other Central Banks' Footsteps (Publication Centre)

Interest rate expectations continued to fall sharply last week.

7 June 2019 GDP Likely Fell Again in April, But the Pain Will Be All in Manufacturing (Publication Centre)

April's GDP report, released on Monday, likely will add fuel to the fire of the re cent sharp decline in interest rate expectations.

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