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21 matches for " non-manufacturing survey":
In one line: The consensus beat doesn't matter; next month will be much worse.
In one line: The hit from tariffs on consumer goods has gone, mostly.
In one line: Headline weakness hides employment rebound, but is it real?
In one line: Not as good as it looks.
The simultaneous weakening of the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys in recent months is one of the more disconcerting shifts in the recent macro data.
We are not worried, at all, by the slowdown in headline payroll growth to 157K in July from an upwardly-revised 248K in June.
The comforting 183K increase in February private payrolls reported by ADP yesterday likely overstates tomorrow's official number.
We were worried about downside risk to yesterday's ADP employment measure, but the 67K increase in November private payrolls was at the very bottom of our expected range.
October payrolls were stronger than we expected, rising 128K, despite a 46K hit from the GM strike.
We think today's February payroll number will be reported at about 140K, undershooting the 175K consensus.
We aren't in the business of trying to divine the explanation for every twist and turn in the stock market at the best of times, and these are not the best of times.
The contrast between November's very modest 67K ADP private payroll number and the surprising 254K official reading was startling, even when the 46K boost to the latter from returning GM strikers is stripped out.
Behind all the talk of slowdowns and Fed pauses, we see no sign that the labor market is loosening beyond a very modest uptick in jobless claims, and even that looks suspicious.
The Redbook chainstore sales survey today is likely to give the superficial impression that the peak holiday shopping season got off to a robust start last week.
We're reasonably happy with the idea that business sentiment is stabilizing, albeit at a low level, but that does not mean that all the downside risk to economic growth is over.
While we were out, most of the action was on the political front, while the economic data mostly were unexciting.
The ADP employment report was on the money in October at the headline level--it undershot the official private payroll number by a trivial 6K--but the BLS's measure was hit by the absence of 46K striking GM workers from the data.
The number of Covid-19 cases is increasing at a faster rate, though 89% of the new cases reported Saturday were in China, South Korea, Italy and Iran.
Something of a debate appears to be underway in markets over the "correct" way to look at the coronavirus data.
In one line: Surging employment index means payroll weakness likely will be temporary
The key data originally scheduled for today--ADP employment and the ISM non-manufacturing survey, and the revised Q3 productivity and unit labor costs-- have been pushed to Thursday because the federal government will be closed for the National Day of Mourning for president George H. W. Bush.
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