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20 December 2016 BanRep Brings Forward the Start of Rate Cuts on Growth Concerns (Publication Centre)

BanRep surprised the markets on Friday with a 25bp interest rate cut, bringing rates to 7.50%. We expected the Colombian central bank to start easing in January, due to the uncertainties surrounding the tax reform package and the ongoing minimum wage negotiations.

25 April 2019 Aircraft will Flatter March Durable Goods Orders Expect a Weak Core (Publication Centre)

If you wanted to be charitable, you could argue that the downturn in the rate of growth of core durable goods orders in recent months has not been as bad as implied by the ISM manufacturing survey.

25 January 2019 How Would an Extension of Article 50 Affect the MPC's Rate Hike Plans? (Publication Centre)

MPs look set to take a decisive step next Tuesday towards removing the risk of a calamitous no-deal Brexit at the end of March.

23 May 2019 Did the Main EZ Survey Data Take a Further Tumble in May (Publication Centre)

Today's EZ calendar is a busy one.

21 February 2019 How High Would Inflation Get After A No-deal Brexit? (Publication Centre)

With a no-deal Brexit still a potential outcome and just over five weeks to go until the U.K. is scheduled to leave, it's about time we put some numbers on how high inflation could get in this worst-case scenario.

16 March 2018 Kuroda Prepares Parliament to Foot the BoJ's Exit Bill (Publication Centre)

Governor Kuroda dropped further hints in speeches earlier this week that interest rates will be going up. He discussed methods of exit, in loose terms.

19 April 2017 Markets Overlook the Downside Risks from June's Snap Election (Publication Centre)

Prime Minister Theresa May's announcement that Parliament will vote today on holding a general election on June 8 shocked markets and even her own party's MPs. Betting markets were pricing in only a 20% chance of a 2017 election before yesterday's news.

19 September 2018 Italian Budget Math Doesn't Add Up (Publication Centre)

Bond yields in Italy remain elevated, but volatility has declined recently; two-year yields have halved to 0.7% and 10-year yields have dipped below 3%.

27 February 2019 More Patience from Powell, Despite the Recovery in the Stock Market (Publication Centre)

Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony yesterday broke no new ground, largely repeating the message of the January 30 press conference.

28 August 2018 Mexico Struggled at the End of the First Half Will it Rebound (Publication Centre)

The Mexican economy shrank by 0.2% quarter- on-quarter in Q2, according to the final GDP report, a tenth worse than the preliminary reading.

5 March 2019 The PPI is the Final Shoe to Drop in the EZ from Chinese Weakness (Publication Centre)

The economic slowdown in China is old news for Eurozone investors.

8 June 2018 The FX Sell-off has Put Central Banks Under Stress, will they Act? (Publication Centre)

EM risk sentiment remains grim as the Trump administration dispenses protectionist trade measures. LatAm's biggest economies, Brazil and Mexico, have been hit the hardest, with their currencies falling 3.3% and 2.2% respectively in the last week, the most in the EM world.

5 December 2018 "Tariff Man" Doesn't Understand Tariffs that's Unfortunate (Publication Centre)

The key data originally scheduled for today--ADP employment and the ISM non-manufacturing survey, and the revised Q3 productivity and unit labor costs-- have been pushed to Thursday because the federal government will be closed for the National Day of Mourning for president George H. W. Bush.

30 May 2019 The German Labour Market Finally Realises that Growth has Slowed (Publication Centre)

Reporting on the German labour market has been like watching paint dry in this expansion, but yesterday's data were a stark exception to this rule.

28 March 2018 Japan's Labour Market to Continue Tightening this Year (Publication Centre)

Data to be released this Friday should show that Japan's labour market remains tight, though the unemployment rate likely ticked back up in February, to 2.6%, after the erratic drop to 2.4% in January.

3 April 2018 Japan's Labour Market Tightness will Surprise the BoJ (Publication Centre)

Japan's unemployment rate edged back up to 2.5% in February after the drop in January to 2.4%.

30 April 2019 High Political Risk in Argentina Offsetting Upbeat Economic News (Publication Centre)

Argentina's financial markets and embattled currency have been under severe pressure in recent weeks, with the ARS hitting a new record low against the USD and government bonds sinking to distress levels.

22 May 2018 Sino-U.S. Negotiations Present a Risk to Japan's Trade Surplus (Publication Centre)

Japan's trade surplus rebounded to ¥522B in April, on our adjustment, from ¥390B in March, around the same level as the official version, though from a higher base.

22 May 2019 Sino-U.S. Negotiations are a Key Risk to Andean External Accounts (Publication Centre)

Data released on Monday showed that Chile's external accounts remained under pressure at the start of the year, and trade tensions mean that it will be harder to finance the gap.

18 Mar. 2015 Strong position for the EU in the coming negotiations with Greece (Publication Centre)

Demands that Germany pay reparations from the Second World War, and the apparently deteriorating relationship between Messrs. Varoufakis and Schauble, have further complicated talks between the Eurogroup and Greece in recent weeks.

15 June. 2015 A Dangerous Impasse in Debt Negotiations with Greece (Publication Centre)

The danse macabre between Greece and its creditors continued last week, increasing the risk of default and capital controls. Greek citizens don't want to leave the euro and Germany does not want a Grexit, two positions which should eventually form the basis for an agreement.

19 June 2018 A Trade War of Attrition Looks Likely, but the Damage for now is Minimal (Publication Centre)

On the face of it, trade negotiations have deteriorated in the last week.

20 June 2018 Today's Brexit Bill Vote is a Close Call, but Bigger Decisions Lie Ahead (Publication Centre)

The vote in the House of Commons today on whether MPs should effectively take control of Brexit negotiations, if Theresa May can't strike a deal by mid-January, looks finely balanced.

21 November 2017 Is Germany Headed for New Elections Next Year? (Publication Centre)

Political uncertainty in the Eurozone is the story that won't die. Coalition talks in Germany collapsed yesterday when the centre-right FDP walked out of the negotiations.

18 Sept. 2015 No Need to Put the Weekend on Hold for Greek Election Results (Publication Centre)

Greece goes to the polls this weekend, but unlike the chaos in the summer, we doubt it will be a nail-biting experience for investors. Polls put Syriza and the conservative New Democracy neck-and-neck, but neither party likely will be able to form a majority. Syriza has ruled out a grand coalition, which potentially means tricky negotiations with minority parties. But we are confident that any new government will be committed to euro membership, and a constructive dialogue with the EU and IMF.

18 Feb. 2015 Brinkmanship is being taken to the extreme in Greece, but a deal is close. (Publication Centre)

We remain confident that a deal with Greece will be made, and that the country will stay in the euro area. But the need for both parties to avoid losing face domestically is still complicating the negotiations. Most importantly, Greece is no longer pledging an unconditional exit from the bailout program.

15 Apr. 2016 Once More Unto the Breach in the Troubled Italian Banking Sector (Publication Centre)

Negotiations between the Italian government and the EU on how to fix the problem of non-performing loans in the banking sector have been predictably slow. Earlier this year the government announced that it will provide a first-loss guarantee on securitised loans sold to private investors.

17 August 2018 China Talks Could Help Support The RMB But it Won't Last (Publication Centre)

China and the U.S. are officially to restart trade talks, according to China's Ministry of Commerce, after previous negotiations stalled in June.

17 January 2017 Will Policymakers Act to Stop Sterling Falling Further? (Publication Centre)

Sterling weakened further yesterday as anxiety grew that PM Theresa May will indicate she is seeking a "clean and hard Brexit" in a speech today. This could mean the U.K. leaves the EU's single market and customs union, in order to control immigration, shake off the jurisdiction of the European Court and have a free hand in trade negotiations with other countries.

11 December 2017 The EU and the U.K. Have a Deal, Now Comes the Difficult Bit (Publication Centre)

The 16-page document--see here--detailing the agreement allowing the EU and the U.K. to move forward in the Brexit negotiations is predictably tedious.

22 June 2017 Are we headed toward an extension of the U.K.'s EU membership? (Publication Centre)

The EU has had a better start to the Brexit negotiations than its counterpart across the Channel. The risk of disagreement within the EU on the details with of the U.K.'s exit is high, but the Continent has presented a united front so far, mainly because Mr. Macron and Mrs. Merkel agree on the broad objectives. They have no interest in punishing the U.K., but they are also keen to show that exiting the EU has costs for a country which leaves.

4 April 2017 The Spanish and U.K. Navies won't Have to Fight over Gibraltar (Publication Centre)

The EU's negotiations with the U.K. over Brexit are off to a bad start. The position in Brussels is that negotiations on a new relationship can't begin before the bill on the U.K.'s existing membership is settled. But this has been met with resistance by Westminster; the U.K. does not recognise the condition of an upfront payment to leave.

5 September 2018 Should Markets Prepare for Brexit Brinkmanship in Q4 and Q1 (Publication Centre)

We would sum up the final stages of the Brexit negotiations as follows: Both sides have an interest in a deal with minimal disruptions, but we probably have to get a lot closer to the cliff- edge for the final settlement.

7 Apr. 2015 The noose tightens on Greece and its creditors as default looms (Publication Centre)

Negotiations between Greece and its creditors will come to a head in the next few weeks as the country faces imminent risk of running out of money. Following a meeting with the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, on Sunday Greek finance minister Faroufakis assured investors that the country intends to make a scheduled €450M payment to the fund on Thursday.

22 March 2017 Greece, the EU and the IMF are Sleepwalking into Crisis... Again (Publication Centre)

Another deadline has come and gone in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors. This week's meeting between EU finance ministers revealed that the creditors have not seen enough commitments unlock the €7B Greece needs to repay in July. Mr. Tsipras has agreed to energy sector privatizations, and to increase the threshold for income tax exemption.

30 June. 2015 Greece and the Eurozone in Limbo Until the Referendum in Greece (Publication Centre)

Eurozone politicians are likely scrambling for a last gasp return to negotiations before the Greek bailout program ends at the end of today. But progress will likely be limited until we have the result of the planned Greek referendum on Sunday. Voters will be asked essentially on whether they agree with the proposal presented by the institutions. The government will campaign for a "no," but a "yes" looks more likely, based on polls that Greeks want to stay in the Eurozone.

23 June. 2015 More Waiting For Investors, But a Deal With Greece is Coming (Publication Centre)

We sympathize greatly with investors' frustration over endless postponements and new "deadlines" in the negotiations between Greece and its creditors. Syriza delivered a proposal for reforms to the EU and the IMF on Monday morning, welcome d as a "positive step in the right direction" by Eurogroup president Dijsselbloem and Economic and Financial Affairs commissioner Moscovici.

24 September 2018 Battle Lines are Drawn Between the EU and U.K. over Brexit (Publication Centre)

EU negotiations tend to go down to the wire; and last week's summit in Salzburg, and Theresa May's statement on Friday, suggest that the Brexit negotiations will do just that.

29 June. 2015 Greek Exit Looms, but Don't Ignore Bullish Leading Indicators (Publication Centre)

Negotiations between Greece and its creditors collapsed over the weekend, greatly increasing the risk of a Grexit. The decision by Syriza to call a referendum on the bailout proposal next weekend, initially advocating rejection, forced the Eurogroup to abandon negotiations and focus on "damage control." Hope of a final retreat from the brink rests with the Greek parliament deciding not to hold the referendum, and accepting the proposal presented on Friday.

Question of the Week, WC 25th June (Media Centre)

With the Mexican Elections on July 1st, our Chief Latam Economist Andres Abadia has received many questions about the possible outcomes and how this will affect the Mexican economy going forward.

Consistently Right

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